vanilla Export Diagnosis (Premium Madagascar Vanilla)

Tridge 데이터와 무관한 제품·시장 본질 적합도

Confirmed from the brief: the offer is a premium Madagascar vanilla bean specification (Black Gourmet, 14 cm+, vanillin >1.6%, moisture 30–34%) with MOQ 100 kg, quoted at USD 78/kg, and the company is still preparing to export. I also confirmed that the request contains no target country or region, so destination-specific tariff, SPS, labeling, and registration requirements could not be verified at market level. Because no destination market was given, I did not establish public import-demand figures or competitor-origin shares and do not treat that absence as evidence of weak demand.

수출 난이도 (규제·무역·인증)

This is a regulated food ingredient export with real first-shipment execution work for a new exporter. The seller should expect plant-product paperwork, destination-specific food labeling rules, buyer QA onboarding, and careful moisture-controlled logistics because vanilla beans at 30–34% moisture can face mold risk if packing and transit are not well managed. I could not verify one single target-market tariff, registration path, or mandatory certification regime because no destination country was provided; any country-specific items beyond the examples above remain unverified and should be checked market by market.

시장 특성

균형 시장

특이사항

Madagascar vanilla is a globally recognized origin, but the category is typically quality-sensitive and price-volatile; buyer qualification often turns on bean appearance, moisture control, vanillin, and documentation consistency rather than origin story alone. With no destination specified, sales should assume incumbent suppliers from Madagascar itself are already present in many markets and that importers will compare on cured quality, defect rate, and reliability. The seller’s relatively small starting MOQ can help onboarding, but being export-inexperienced increases execution risk on first orders.

Pool → Targeted(20%) → Responded → Lead funnel. Responded·Lead는 본질 난이도 가중(low ×1.2 · moderate ×1.0 · high ×0.7). 최종 적합도는 Lead 범위 기준. Pool은 현재 매칭 기준 최소치이며 추가 발굴이 가능합니다(+).

Tridge discovery coverage is strong for this request because the buyer universe is both broad and diversified across five relevant segments, with total pool 272619 and total targeted 29887.6. More importantly, the weighted funnel still yields expected Leads of 9.9~59.2 in the conservative scenario and 59.2~207.0 in the aggressive scenario, so realistic deal creation is not confined to a near-zero band. The main nuance is that intrinsic market fit is only moderate and some attractive pools are in higher-difficulty universes, so raw pool size should not be read as 1:1 opportunity; actual delivery must be judged through the responded and lead bands after difficulty weighting.

AI 리서치 기반 회사 수출 역량 진단 — 관측 무역 데이터는 참고 지표 (특정 제품/시장 적합성은 아래 별도 표시)

참고 지표 관측 3개년: 수출 $8K · 1개국 · 1개 품목

Web research on the stated company name in Madagascar did not surface a clear corporate website, export team footprint, hiring evidence, overseas office, or documented export partnerships; this supports only a very thin public profile rather than confirmed export infrastructure. The reference trade data shows a low-confidence match to GOSHEN VANILLA MADAGASCAR with observed exports of $8K across 1 country, 1 product, and 1 customer, all vanilla-bean to KR 100.0%, which is more consistent with a narrow or early-stage channel than with diversified direct export capability. Applying the standard here, observed shipment activity alone is not enough to prove a systematized direct-export organization without evidence of dedicated overseas sales, repeated multi-market development, or regulatory/commercial execution depth. On that basis, the company is best assessed as low for direct export capability at this stage.

캠페인 가격 · 커밋 Lead

결정론적 산정 — AI가 아닌 시스템 룰

확약 = min(4축 점수 밴드, pool 이행 상한). 4축 = 제품·시장 적합도(high 3 · moderate 2 · low 0) + 수출 난이도(low 3 · moderate 2 · high 0) + 판매자 경쟁력(high 2 · moderate 1 · low 0 · 미제공 1) + Tridge 데이터 준비도(±1). 밴드 8+→5 · 6~7→4 · 4~5→3 · 2~3→2 · 그 외 1. 상한은 보수·공격 시나리오 Lead 상한의 중간값(중복 제거 union pool 기준). 커밋 0개는 판매 비권고에서만.

Tridge 데이터 준비도: 발굴 pool 중 수입 실적이 확인되는 비율 46.2% — 나머지는 이름·설명 매칭만으로 잡힌 미검증 회사다.

Committed lead count is fixed at 3 because the system-derived 4-axis commitment score was 5, which mapped to a target of 3 leads, while the pool-based delivery cap from the 149438 buyer pool basis was 5 leads; the lower value becomes the commitment. In other words, this campaign was not capped by buyer discovery reach, because the delivery cap was higher than the final commitment. The number was held down by the grade side of the equation, especially seller export competitiveness being low (+0), while product-market fit was moderate (+2), export difficulty was moderate (+2), and Tridge data readiness was +1 based on 46.2% import-history verification.