Research Intel
Hook Candidates
1) Border‑risk & perishables play (timing hook): 2026 is a regulatory inflection point — BTOM phases, episodic SPS checks and new ENS/ICS2 requirements are keeping border delays and hold‑ups elevated for UK–EU fresh produce flows. Outreach angle: offer Tudor’s customers an immediate way to reduce hold‑ups and lost shelf‑life by connecting them to Tridge Ark’s AI‑driven exporter/origin sourcing + pre‑cleared documentation pipeline (verified exporters in North Africa/Southern Hemisphere, pre‑filled export health and customs info).
2) Origin‑diversification & margin protection (commercial hook): UK buyers are actively diversifying away from single origins (Spain/NL) toward Morocco, Egypt and Southern Hemisphere suppliers in 2025–26 (e.g., Morocco doubled sweet‑pepper exports to the UK in 2025). Outreach angle: position Tudor as the forwarder that can introduce buyers to ready‑to‑ship, compliance‑checked suppliers sourced via Tridge Ark — helping Tudor capture new import volumes while reducing the lead time and compliance burden for those shipments.
## Company Profile
Tudor International Freight Ltd. — UK-based freight forwarder (lead email: sales@tudorfreight.com). Public lead record shows a typical UK forwarder profile: arranges sea, air and road freight, customs clearance and documentation for B2B importers and exporters. Likely serves SME and mid-market shippers across perishables (fresh produce) and general cargo on UK–EU and global lanes. Scale not publicly listed in lead notes; operates in the highly competitive UK forwarding market where digital documentation, customs expertise and lane reliability are differentiators.
## Pain Points
## Intel Summary
=== MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH ===
=== 1. MARKET EVENTS – UK‑EU GOODS TRADE & 2026 BORDER CHECKS / DELAYS ===
**Regulatory milestones & timing**
- **Border Target Operating Model (BTOM)** – full UK import controls on EU SPS goods are still being phased:
- Pre‑notification and export health certificates for medium‑risk animal products, plants and plant products from the EU were introduced from **31 January 2024**. ([bdo.co.uk](https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/tax/vat-and-indirect-taxes/border-target-operating-model-a-new-approach-to-importing-goods-to-great-britain?utm_source=openai))
- **Physical checks** on EU SPS imports began from end‑**April 2024**, initially at selected Border Control Posts (BCPs), using a risk‑based model. ([food.gov.uk](https://www.food.gov.uk/board-papers/border-target-operating-model-one-year-on?utm_source=openai))
- Planned extension of checks on some **medium‑risk fruit & vegetables from the EU** was postponed from **30 October 2024** to **1 July 2025**, and then further extended; current guidance for food importers notes that some July 2025 checks are now **pushed back towards 31 January 2027**. ([bdo.co.uk](https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/tax/vat-and-indirect-taxes/border-target-operating-model-a-new-approach-to-importing-goods-to-great-britain?utm_source=openai))
- **Customs / safety‑and‑security (S&S) data**
- BTOM envisages ending the waiver for S&S declarations on EU imports; earlier drafts flagged October 2024 as the switch‑on date. In practice, roll‑out has been tied into the wider Single Trade Window and new HMRC IT, now targeted for early **2025–26**, with interim work‑arounds after several IT‑related border disruptions. ([food.gov.uk](https://www.food.gov.uk/print/pdf/node/25716?utm_source=openai))
- Separate from UK BTOM, the EU is tightening **Entry Summary (ENS)** requirements for imports into the EU (ICS2 and related rules). A Maersk overview highlights that by **1 June 2026** full ENS will be required for *all land modes* entering the EU, increasing pre‑lodgement complexity for UK–EU road flows. ([maersk.com](https://www.maersk.com/ja-jp/insights/resilience/2026/02/06/customs-regulations-changes-2026?utm_source=openai))
- **EU border IT reforms**
- The EU’s **Entry/Exit System (EES)** for travellers — relevant mainly for passenger traffic but with spill‑over effects on Channel terminal congestion — has been delayed again, with full roll‑out now targeted for **September 2026** after trials showed significant queues and operational issues at busy crossings. ([britbrief.co.uk](https://britbrief.co.uk/politics/brexit/eu-postpones-ees-border-system-to-2026-after-summer-delays.html?utm_source=openai))
- **Broader EU customs reform**
- In **March 2026**, EU institutions agreed on a **landmark customs reform**, including an EU Customs Data Hub and a re‑designed risk framework. The data hub for e‑commerce is set to go live from **1 July 2028**, but preparatory work will start earlier and is expected to increase data requirements on movements through EU hubs used by UK traders. ([consilium.europa.eu](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2026/03/26/eu-customs-council-and-parliament-agree-on-landmark-reform/pdf/?utm_source=openai))
**Evidence of delays & friction at UK‑EU goods border**
- The Food Standards Agency’s “BTOM – One Year On” review (April **2026**) reports:
- Periodic **pauses to routine SPS checks** caused by “critical IT systems failures” in Defra systems, which otherwise would have created “lengthy delays at the border.” ([food.gov.uk](https://www.food.gov.uk/board-papers/border-target-operating-model-one-year-on?utm_source=openai))
- HMRC/Defra replacement systems now aimed for **early 2025/26**, indicating that 2024‑25 was a transition period with elevated operational risk. ([food.gov.uk](https://www.food.gov.uk/print/pdf/node/25716?utm_source=openai))
- A recent **House of Commons Committee** report on “UK‑EU Trade: towards a resilient border strategy” (published **March 2026**) concludes that since January 2024, incremental controls on EU imports have **increased complexity** and that government must set out a clear plan to avoid congestion as further phases are introduced by **end‑January 2026** and beyond. ([committees.parliament.uk](https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/51977/documents/288468/default/?utm_source=openai))
- A **House of Lords** examination of post‑Brexit customs (updated **2026**) highlights that:
- Roll‑on/roll‑off ports still handle the majority of UK‑EU trade and are structurally vulnerable to **queueing if checks increase processing times** by even 1–2 minutes per vehicle.
- To date, the government has sometimes **limited or waived checks at the busiest ports** (e.g. Dover) to prevent disproportionate delays, shifting more complete checking to lower‑throughput ports. ([parliament.uk](https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/lords-committees/eu-external-affairs-subcommittee/brexit-customs-challenge-debate/brexit-customs-challenge-report.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**Prospective 2026+ changes to UK‑EU goods trade**
- **TCA 2026 review & potential “veterinary/SPS deal”**
- The UK‑EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) is slated for a **formal review in 2026**, which UK and EU policy papers frame as an opportunity to reduce trade friction — especially for agri‑food. ([commonslibrary.parliament.uk](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10390/?utm_source=openai))
- The EU Ambassador to the UK stated in late **2025** that a **new SPS‑type deal** could be agreed by **2026**, potentially “scrapping most routine border checks on food and agricultural products” and delivering up to **£5.1bn** in annual benefits for UK businesses, according to UK government estimates. This is not yet agreed policy but is a key upside scenario for 2026‑27. ([itv.com](https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2025-10-31/deal-to-cut-eu-border-checks-on-uk-goods-could-be-agreed-by-2026?utm_source=openai))
**Implications for customs risk & delay in 2026**
- **Short‑term (2025–early 2026)**
- Continued **phased implementation** of BTOM and reliance on temporary IT solutions imply **episodic delays**, particularly for SPS consignments, but with authorities prepared to suspend checks if queues become critical. ([food.gov.uk](https://www.food.gov.uk/board-papers/border-target-operating-model-one-year-on?utm_source=openai))
- Traders in temperature‑controlled food/ambient categories face a moving schedule: some checks deferred to **July 2025** and then further towards **January 2027**, so operational uncertainty remains high through 2026. ([bdo.co.uk](https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/tax/vat-and-indirect-taxes/border-target-operating-model-a-new-approach-to-importing-goods-to-great-britain?utm_source=openai))
- **Medium‑term (late 2026 onward)**
- EU ENS/ELO and EES systems plus the new EU customs data hub will raise **data‑quality and timeliness requirements** on all movements that touch the EU customs union, including UK‑routed goods. ([maersk.com](https://www.maersk.com/ja-jp/insights/resilience/2026/02/06/customs-regulations-changes-2026?utm_source=openai))
- A successful **UK‑EU SPS deal** in the 2026 TCA review would materially reduce **physical inspection rates and documentation burden** for agri‑food, but this is contingent on political negotiation and regulatory alignment decisions. ([commonslibrary.parliament.uk](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10390/?utm_source=openai))
**Key takeaway for UK‑EU goods flows in 2026**
- 2026 is shaping up as a **regulatory inflection point**: BTOM remains partially implemented with some controls pushed into 2027, while EU systems (ENS for land, EES) tighten border formalities. Delays are currently **episodic and port‑specific** rather than systemic, but both IT failures and incremental checks have already triggered material disruption, keeping **border‑delay risk structurally elevated** for UK‑EU trade, especially for food and agricultural goods. ([food.gov.uk](https://www.food.gov.uk/board-papers/border-target-operating-model-one-year-on?utm_source=openai))
=== 2. DEMAND SIGNALS – UK FREIGHT FORWARDING & FREIGHT RATES/CAPACITY (2026) ===
**Market size & growth for UK freight forwarding**
- IMARC estimates the **UK freight forwarding market** at **USD 10.6 bn in 2025**, projecting growth to **USD 17.2 bn by 2034**, a **CAGR of ~5.3% for 2026‑34**. B2B accounts for ~**78.8%** of the market (by value) as of 2025, underlining the dominance of industrial and commercial flows over B2C. ([imarcgroup.com](https://www.imarcgroup.com/uk-freight-forwarding-market?utm_source=openai))
- Grand View Research similarly points to mid‑single‑digit growth, forecasting a **~6.1% CAGR for 2025‑2030**, with continued expansion in e‑commerce, retail and manufacturing volumes, and more complex cross‑border compliance as key drivers. ([grandviewresearch.com](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/horizon/outlook/freight-forwarding-market/uk?utm_source=openai))
**2026 freight rate and capacity environment affecting UK forwarders**
- **Ocean freight – global signals filtering into UK lanes**
- S&P Global’s 2026 outlook and related commentary emphasise that **rates have softened vs the 2021‑22 peak but remain volatile**, with two main 2026 scenarios: a “Suez normalisation” case where capacity pressure eases, and a “renewed disruption” case where rerouting via the Cape and geopolitical risks keep rates elevated. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai))
- A UK‑based forwarder (Hemisphere Freight) notes that 2026 ocean freight rates will be shaped by **Red Sea disruptions, schedule reliability and carrier blank sailing strategies**, advising shippers to blend fixed contracts with opportunistic spot to manage volatility on Asia–UK and other core lanes. ([hemisphere-freight.com](https://www.hemisphere-freight.com/news/ocean-freight-rates-2026-outlook/?utm_source=openai))
- Metro Global (UK NVOCC/forwarder) reports for **March 2026** that spot ocean rates are entering a **“more volatile phase”**, with Middle East conflict, port congestion and carrier pricing strategies reducing *effective* capacity. Some new contract levels are being set **materially above then‑current spot benchmarks**, signalling that carriers expect a **“higher‑for‑longer”** baseline even if near‑term demand is moderate. ([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/03/18/ocean-rates-move-unevenly-as-conflict-congestion-and-pricing-strategies-reshape-the-market/?utm_source=openai))
- **Air freight**
- Global air freight in early **2026** remains tighter than pre‑COVID as modal shift from disrupted ocean routes and strong e‑commerce/top‑tier electronics demand absorb capacity. UK market updates (e.g. Uniserve May 2026) flag continued **rate sensitivity around Asia–EU/UK lanes**, with ad‑hoc surcharges linked to fuel and security conditions. ([uniserve.co.uk](https://uniserve.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Market_Update_May_2026.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- **Road / UK‑EU land transport**
- Metro Global’s **April 2026** European road freight update describes a **fragile road market**, with pan‑European road freight growth only **~0.5% YoY** and some key markets in decline, but UK‑EU flows remain constrained by post‑Brexit friction rather than lack of capacity. The UK is described as “edging back” towards the European road market, suggesting **incremental recovery** in exports/imports via trucking. ([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai))
- **Forwarder‑level operational pressure (data, compliance, margins)**
- Descartes’ **2025 Forwarder & Broker Benchmark** (used in a Feb **2026** analysis aimed at UK forwarders) highlights:
- Increasing **pricing pressure and volatility** – forwarders report difficulty maintaining margins as shippers benchmark heavily against indices and spot markets.
- High exposure to **regulatory complexity** (BTOM, ICS2, EUDR, CBAM), with under‑investment in compliance tech putting some UK forwarders at risk of “falling behind” in 2026. ([descartes.com](https://www.descartes.com/resources/blog/why-some-uk-freight-forwarders-risk-falling-behind-2026?utm_source=openai))
- New **BIFA Standard Trading Conditions 2025** (effective for contracts performed from **1 January 2026**) explicitly update risk allocations, liability and digital documentation norms, reflecting this more volatile and compliance‑heavy environment for UK forwarders. ([birketts.co.uk](https://www.birketts.co.uk/legal-update/bifa-terms-2025-new-rules-for-the-new-year/?utm_source=openai))
**Demand signals from UK shippers & procurement community**
- A March **2026** CIPS‑linked commentary on landed costs notes that UK procurement leaders expect **shipping inflation to re‑emerge in 2026**, with container spot prices on Asia‑Europe showing **sharp moves since late December 2025**. Even **modest % changes in freight rates** are translating into disproportionate **unit‑cost increases** once inland haulage, handling and working‑capital effects are included. ([in-supply.co.uk](https://in-supply.co.uk/cips-flags-renewed-landed-cost-pressure/?utm_source=openai))
- Knight Frank’s **UK Logistics Market Update – March 2026** reports that **heightened Red Sea insecurity** has forced vessels to reroute, **extending transit times and pushing up freight costs** for UK imports, especially from Asia. This sustains demand for **buffer inventory, additional warehousing and flexible logistics contracts** even when end‑consumer demand is not booming. ([knightfrank.co.uk](https://www.knightfrank.co.uk/research/article/2026/3/uk-logistics-market-update--march-2026?utm_source=openai))
**Forward‑looking 2026 themes relevant to demand for forwarding services**
- **Not a classic down‑cycle**: S&P Global argues that 2026 will *not* be a repeat of prior overcapacity busts; strategic capacity management by carriers and persistent geopolitical risks limit downside in rates, so UK shippers keep prioritising **reliability and resilience over pure price**. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/01/supply-chain-certainty-rather-than-price-will-shape-shipping-in-2026?utm_source=openai))
- **Tech & data as competitive differentiators**: UK‑focused 2026 commentary (Descartes; BIFA STCs) emphasises that digitised document workflows, customs automation and real‑time visibility are now **table stakes**; smaller forwarders that cannot deliver this risk losing share despite overall market growth. ([descartes.com](https://www.descartes.com/resources/blog/why-some-uk-freight-forwarders-risk-falling-behind-2026?utm_source=openai))
**Net demand signal for 2026**
- Underlying **volume growth** in UK freight forwarding is **mid‑single digit**, but **value growth in forwarding services may be higher** because of:
- structurally higher baseline freight rates vs pre‑2020,
- complexity premiums for customs/Brexit/EU green regulation management, and
- extra value placed on visibility and risk‑management.
- For UK shippers, especially in food and agriculture, 2026 is more about **navigating volatile capacity and regulatory risk** than securing deep freight‑rate discounts, supporting continued demand for capable UK forwarders across sea, air and road. ([imarcgroup.com](https://www.imarcgroup.com/uk-freight-forwarding-market?utm_source=openai))
=== 3. COMMODITY TRENDS – UK FRESH PRODUCE IMPORTS & SOURCING SHIFTS (SPAIN, NETHERLANDS, NORTH AFRICA) ===
**High‑level import dependence & role of key origins**
- The UK remains heavily **import‑dependent for fruit and vegetables**; while latest full‑year HMRC/UN Comtrade data for 2025 are still being consolidated, sector reports indicate:
- The Netherlands and Spain together account for **around 80–85% of UK imports** in some key veg categories (e.g. sweet peppers) as of 2025, acting respectively as a **re‑export hub (NL)** and a primary producer (ES). ([hortidaily.com](https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9827509/morocco-doubles-sweet-pepper-exports-to-uk-in-2025/?utm_source=openai))
- Southern Hemisphere and North African origins (South Africa, Morocco, Egypt, Peru, Chile etc.) continue to expand share in **counter‑seasonal fruit** (citrus, grapes, blueberries) and increasingly in **winter vegetables** (tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers) for the UK grocery market. ([shfruit.org](https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**North Africa gaining share – concrete data points**
- **Morocco – sweet peppers to UK**
- According to a 2025 EastFruit/HortiDaily analysis, Morocco **doubled its sweet pepper exports to the UK in 2025**, reaching a new bilateral record.
- Netherlands and Spain still control **~83%** of total UK sweet‑pepper imports, but Morocco’s share rose from **1.7% (2024)** to **3.6% (2025)** in value terms. ([hortidaily.com](https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9827509/morocco-doubles-sweet-pepper-exports-to-uk-in-2025/?utm_source=openai))
- **Morocco – citrus to UK**
- TradingEconomics (UN Comtrade‑based) shows **UK imports of Moroccan citrus fruits** (fresh/dried) at **US$75.9m in 2025**, up from prior years, with the series last updated in **May 2026**. The trend underlines Morocco’s role as a **growing winter citrus supplier** to the UK, complementing Spain and South Africa. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/imports/morocco/citrus-fruit-fresh-dried?utm_source=openai))
- **Southern Hemisphere supply**
- The Southern Hemisphere Fresh Fruit Exporters’ 2026 statistical handbook shows Southern Hemisphere citrus exports to Europe at **~3.4m tonnes**, up **17% YoY** and **3% over five years**, with **South Africa** alone accounting for **50%** of temperate fruit imports from the Southern Hemisphere into Europe. Many of these volumes flow via the Netherlands into the UK, reinforcing the NL hub role. ([shfruit.org](https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**Spain & Netherlands – seasonality and hub roles**
- **Spain** remains the dominant EU origin for UK **winter/spring vegetables and citrus**: tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, soft fruit, oranges, mandarins and lemons. UK buyers rely heavily on Spanish supply from **roughly October–April** for field veg and citrus, with UK and Dutch greenhouse or UK seasonal production taking more share from late spring to early autumn. (This seasonality is consistent with long‑run patterns; 2024‑25 weather events have occasionally disrupted early‑spring availability.) ([shfruit.org](https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- The **Netherlands** acts as a major **consolidation and re‑export hub** for fruit and vegetables into the UK; Dutch operators import from Southern Hemisphere and non‑EU origins (e.g. South Africa, Chile, Peru, Morocco) and re‑export to the UK, especially via Rotterdam. The 2026 statistical handbook notes the Netherlands as a “major European hub” for fresh fruit with significant throughput of citrus and other categories bound for North‑West Europe including the UK. ([shfruit.org](https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**Emerging shifts in sourcing patterns (2024‑26)**
- **Diversification away from single‑origin risk**
- The extreme Spanish droughts and heat episodes in 2022–23 prompted UK retailers to **diversify winter veg and salad sourcing** further into **Morocco, Egypt and other North African producers**, a trend that persisted through 2024–25 and underpins Morocco’s rapid growth in peppers and tomatoes. ([hortidaily.com](https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9827509/morocco-doubles-sweet-pepper-exports-to-uk-in-2025/?utm_source=openai))
- For fruits such as grapes, citrus, berries, stonefruit, and avocados, Southern Hemisphere and North African origins have increased their combined share of UK‑bound European imports over the last **1–5 years** by several percentage points (e.g. citrus imports from Southern Hemisphere up **27% YoY** and **6% over 5 years** for Europe as a whole), with the UK capturing a substantial share via Dutch and direct shipments. ([shfruit.org](https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- **Regulatory & logistics drivers of sourcing**
- BTOM SPS controls on EU fruit & veg have been **deferred** several times (now into 2025–27 for some products), which reduces immediate friction on Spanish and Dutch shipments vs Rest‑of‑World origins. However, the **risk‑based BTOM model** ultimately applies to *all* origins, meaning exporters in North Africa that invest early in compliance and digital pre‑notification can compete on reliability rather than just price. ([bdo.co.uk](https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/tax/vat-and-indirect-taxes/border-target-operating-model-a-new-approach-to-importing-goods-to-great-britain?utm_source=openai))
- For non‑EU origins routed via EU ports (e.g. South African citrus via NL), upcoming EU rules — including **EUDR (deforestation regulation)** and strengthened ENS rules by **June 2026** — add extra documentation and traceability requirements, which may encourage some UK importers to consider **more direct UK calls** from origins where port connectivity allows, or to source from origins where compliance processes are more mature. ([maersk.com](https://www.maersk.com/ja-jp/insights/resilience/2026/02/06/customs-regulations-changes-2026?utm_source=openai))
- **Product‑specific trade shifts (illustrative)**
- **Candied and processed fruit/veg (HS 2006)**: a recent 2026 market research report notes that within the UK candied fruit/veg segment Spain and the Netherlands have gained share at the expense of Italy between 2024 and 2025 (NL +1.3 percentage points; ES +1.4 p.p. in value share), reflecting broader shifts in EU processing and re‑export hubs. While not fresh produce, this mirrors the structural importance of Spain and NL in UK fruit ingredient supply. ([gtaic.ai](https://gtaic.ai/files/reports/United_Kingdom_200600_ffca387e-796c-4d08-837b-7f0e04e7910e.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**Seasonality summary for 2026 sourcing strategy (inferred from data and recent trends)**
- **Autumn–winter (Oct–Mar)**
- **Spain**: primary source of salad veg and citrus; any weather shock here materially affects UK availability and prices.
- **North Africa (Morocco, Egypt)**: rapidly growing supplier of peppers, tomatoes, cucumbers and some soft fruit, helping to backfill Spanish shortfalls and offer price competition. ([hortidaily.com](https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9827509/morocco-doubles-sweet-pepper-exports-to-uk-in-2025/?utm_source=openai))
- **Southern Hemisphere**: key for citrus, grapes, berries; much of this reaches the UK via the Netherlands. ([shfruit.org](https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- **Spring–summer (Apr–Sep)**
- UK domestic and Dutch greenhouse production take larger shares in salads/veg, but Spain and North Africa still contribute shoulder‑season volumes.
- For top‑fruit (apples, pears) and stonefruit, the UK continues to rely on a **mix of EU and Southern Hemisphere** imports, with the Netherlands remaining the principal gateway. ([shfruit.org](https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**Overall commodity‑trend takeaway for 2026**
- The **direction of travel** is clear even if precise 2026 import tonnages are still emerging:
- Spain and the Netherlands **remain central** to UK fresh‑produce supply chains, but **North African origins are gaining share**, particularly in winter vegetables, supported by competitive costs and targeted investment. ([hortidaily.com](https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9827509/morocco-doubles-sweet-pepper-exports-to-uk-in-2025/?utm_source=openai))
- Regulatory and logistics shifts (BTOM, EUDR, EU ENS changes) are gradually altering **route and origin risk profiles**, likely encouraging UK buyers to further **diversify origins, ports of entry and logistic partners** through 2026–27. ([bdo.co.uk](https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/tax/vat-and-indirect-taxes/border-target-operating-model-a-new-approach-to-importing-goods-to-great-britain?utm_source=openai))
Sources:
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https://www.food.gov.uk/board-papers/border-target-operating-model-one-year-on?utm_source=openai
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https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10390/?utm_source=openai
• EU Ambassador to UK says new trade deal to cut red tape for British exports could be agreed by 2026 | ITV News Channel
https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2025-10-31/deal-to-cut-eu-border-checks-on-uk-goods-could-be-agreed-by-2026?utm_source=openai
• Border Target Operating Model – One Year On | Food Standards Agency
https://www.food.gov.uk/board-papers/border-target-operating-model-one-year-on?utm_source=openai
• Border Target Operating Model - a new approach to importing goods to Great Britain - BDO
https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/tax/vat-and-indirect-taxes/border-target-operating-model-a-new-approach-to-importing-goods-to-great-britain?utm_source=openai
• Customs Regulations Changes 2026 | Maersk
https://www.maersk.com/ja-jp/insights/resilience/2026/02/06/customs-regulations-changes-2026?utm_source=openai
• The 2026 review of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement and the UK-EU reset - House of Commons Library
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10390/?utm_source=openai
• Border Target Operating Model – One Year On | Food Standards Agency
https://www.food.gov.uk/board-papers/border-target-operating-model-one-year-on?utm_source=openai
• UK Freight Forwarding Market Size & Industry Analysis, 2034
https://www.imarcgroup.com/uk-freight-forwarding-market?utm_source=openai
• UK Freight Forwarding Market Size & Outlook, 2030
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/horizon/outlook/freight-forwarding-market/uk?utm_source=openai
• 2026 Ocean Freight Outlook: Softer Rates Ahead, but Volatility Isn’t Going Anywhere | S&P Global
https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai
• Ocean Freight Rates in 2026 | Hemisphere Freight
https://www.hemisphere-freight.com/news/ocean-freight-rates-2026-outlook/?utm_source=openai
• Ocean rates move unevenly as conflict, congestion and pricing strategies reshape the market | Metro Global
https://metro.global/2026/03/18/ocean-rates-move-unevenly-as-conflict-congestion-and-pricing-strategies-reshape-the-market/?utm_source=openai
• MAY
2026
MAY
2026
MARKET
UPDATE
Part of GB Glob
https://uniserve.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Market_Update_May_2026.pdf?utm_source=openai
• A tougher European road market and a UK edging back towards it | Metro Global
https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai
• Why Some UK Freight Forwarders Risk Falling Behind in 2026 | Descartes
https://www.descartes.com/resources/blog/why-some-uk-freight-forwarders-risk-falling-behind-2026?utm_source=openai
• BIFA Terms 2025: Key Legal Changes for Freight Forwarders
https://www.birketts.co.uk/legal-update/bifa-terms-2025-new-rules-for-the-new-year/?utm_source=openai
• CIPS flags renewed landed-cost pressure | IN Supply
https://in-supply.co.uk/cips-flags-renewed-landed-cost-pressure/?utm_source=openai
• UK Logistics Market Update – March 2026
https://www.knightfrank.co.uk/research/article/2026/3/uk-logistics-market-update--march-2026?utm_source=openai
• Supply chain certainty, rather than price, will shape shipping in 2026 | S&P Global
https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/01/supply-chain-certainty-rather-than-price-will-shape-shipping-in-2026?utm_source=openai
• Why Some UK Freight Forwarders Risk Falling Behind in 2026 | Descartes
https://www.descartes.com/resources/blog/why-some-uk-freight-forwarders-risk-falling-behind-2026?utm_source=openai
• UK Freight Forwarding Market Size & Industry Analysis, 2034
https://www.imarcgroup.com/uk-freight-forwarding-market?utm_source=openai
• Morocco doubles sweet pepper exports to UK in 2025
https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9827509/morocco-doubles-sweet-pepper-exports-to-uk-in-2025/?utm_source=openai
• STATISTICAL
https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Morocco doubles sweet pepper exports to UK in 2025
https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9827509/morocco-doubles-sweet-pepper-exports-to-uk-in-2025/?utm_source=openai
• United Kingdom Imports from Morocco of Citrus fruit, fresh or dried - 2026 Data 2027 Forecast 1993-2025 Historical
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/imports/morocco/citrus-fruit-fresh-dried?utm_source=openai
• STATISTICAL
https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai
• STATISTICAL
https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai
• STATISTICAL
https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Morocco doubles sweet pepper exports to UK in 2025
https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9827509/morocco-doubles-sweet-pepper-exports-to-uk-in-2025/?utm_source=openai
• Border Target Operating Model - a new approach to importing goods to Great Britain - BDO
https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/tax/vat-and-indirect-taxes/border-target-operating-model-a-new-approach-to-importing-goods-to-great-britain?utm_source=openai
• Customs Regulations Changes 2026 | Maersk
https://www.maersk.com/ja-jp/insights/resilience/2026/02/06/customs-regulations-changes-2026?utm_source=openai
• MARKET RESEARCH REPORT
https://gtaic.ai/files/reports/United_Kingdom_200600_ffca387e-796c-4d08-837b-7f0e04e7910e.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Morocco doubles sweet pepper exports to UK in 2025
https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9827509/morocco-doubles-sweet-pepper-exports-to-uk-in-2025/?utm_source=openai
• STATISTICAL
https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai
• STATISTICAL
https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai
• STATISTICAL
https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Morocco doubles sweet pepper exports to UK in 2025
https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9827509/morocco-doubles-sweet-pepper-exports-to-uk-in-2025/?utm_source=openai
• Border Target Operating Model - a new approach to importing goods to Great Britain - BDO
https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/tax/vat-and-indirect-taxes/border-target-operating-model-a-new-approach-to-importing-goods-to-great-britain?utm_source=openai