## Company Profile PT. Forin Transbuana Logistics — Indonesia-based freight forwarder (category: freight_forwarder). Public contact evidence lists a Surabaya office (email surabaya@forinlogistics.com). Typical service set for this category: sea/air forwarding, customs clearance, domestic trucking/door delivery, warehousing and export documentation support for Indonesian shippers (agribulk, containerised commodities and manufactured goods). Scale: SME regional forwarder (no public large-cap profile found). ## Pain Points ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. MARKET EVENTS – INDONESIA TRADE FLOWS & CORRIDORS (2025–EARLY 2026) === **Overall trade balance and growth** - Indonesia recorded a **US$41 billion trade surplus in 2025**, with total exports at **US$282.9 billion (+6.15% y/y)** and non‑oil & gas exports at **US$269.8 billion (+7.66% y/y)**.([ibai.or.id](https://www.ibai.or.id/news/item/9057-indonesia-ends-2025-with-usd-41-billion-trade-surplus.html?utm_source=openai)) - For **Jan–Nov 2025**, the surplus was driven by a **non‑oil & gas surplus of US$56.15 billion** versus an **oil & gas deficit of US$17.61 billion**.([bps.go.id](https://www.bps.go.id/en/news/2026/01/05/836/indonesia-s-balance-of-trade-continues-to-record-a-surplus.html?utm_source=openai)) **Key export destinations and concentration (China, US, India, EU)** - In **Jan–Nov 2025**, Indonesia’s main export markets were: - **China**: **US$58.24 billion**, **23.8%** of total exports - **United States**: **US$28.14 billion**, **11.5%** - **India**: **US$16.44 billion**, **6.7%**([bps.go.id](https://www.bps.go.id/en/news/2026/01/05/836/indonesia-s-balance-of-trade-continues-to-record-a-surplus.html?utm_source=openai)) - Full‑year non‑oil & gas exports in 2025: China, US, and India **together accounted for 42.3%** of all non‑oil & gas shipments, confirming high partner concentration on these three corridors.([ibai.or.id](https://www.ibai.or.id/news/item/9057-indonesia-ends-2025-with-usd-41-billion-trade-surplus.html?utm_source=openai)) - Latest partner profile work using full‑year 2025 data shows **China at ~US$154.6 billion total trade** with Indonesia in 2025 (both directions), taking roughly **one‑third of Indonesia’s total goods trade**; on the export side, the **US holds ~11% and India ~6.5%** of Indonesia’s exports.([iifa.uiii.ac.id](https://iifa.uiii.ac.id/storage/upload/publication/198643_publication.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - For the **EU**, latest EU–Indonesia data (2024) shows bilateral trade in goods around **€27.3 billion**, with EU imports from Indonesia at **€17.5 billion** and exports at **€9.7 billion**. The EU is about **10% of Indonesia’s total external trade** and is Indonesia’s **4th‑largest trading partner** after Japan, China and Singapore.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia%E2%80%93European_Union_trade_relations?utm_source=openai)) **Commodity and corridor composition** - China’s imports from Indonesia are heavily weighted to **mineral fuels & oils (28.3%)**, **iron & steel (22.5%)**, **fats & oils including palm (11.2%)**, **nickel products (9.1%)**, and **pulp & paper (4.9%)** (by share of Indonesian exports to China). This underscores the dominance of **bulk and semi‑processed commodities** in the China corridor.([iseas.edu.sg](https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ISEAS_EWP_2026-2_Pane.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Recent analysis of China–Indonesia trade shows **total China–Indonesia trade at US$167.4 billion in 2025 (+13.4% y/y)**, with Chinese exports to Indonesia at **US$85.3 billion (+11.3%)** and imports from Indonesia at **US$82.1 billion (+15.6%)**. Iron & steel and mineral fuels together form the core export basket.([china-briefing.com](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-indonesia-trade-and-investment-profile-opportunities/?utm_source=openai)) - Structural commentary for 2024–25 indicates **Indonesia is increasing nickel shipments**, “mostly to China and other Asian partners,” reinforcing east‑bound bulk flows.([mckinsey.com](https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/geopolitics-and-the-geometry-of-global-trade-2026-update?utm_source=openai)) **Direction of change 2025 → 2026 (by corridor)** - **China corridor:** - Exports to China reached **US$67.0 billion in 2025**, per UN Comtrade‑linked data.([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/exports/china?utm_source=openai)) - China has remained Indonesia’s largest partner for **13 consecutive years**, and the China share of Indonesia’s overall trade was cited near **32%** in 2025, implying continued deepening of this corridor into 2026.([china-briefing.com](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-indonesia-trade-and-investment-profile-opportunities/?utm_source=openai)) - **US corridor:** - The US held **~11–11.5% of Indonesia’s exports** in 2025, and several macro outlooks flag **US trade policy uncertainty and elevated tariffs** as headwinds for 2026, including on some Indonesian commodities (e.g., selected metals, manufactured products).([phintracosekuritas.com](https://phintracosekuritas.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Phintas-Domestic-Macro-Flash-Indonesia-Balance-of-Trade-November-2025-EN.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **India corridor:** - India accounted for **~6.5–6.7% of exports** in 2025 and remains important for **coal and palm oil** demand. Structural forecasts suggest **India’s own exports in 2026 are dampened by higher US tariffs**, which may indirectly weigh on its import demand growth, but Indonesia remains a key commodity supplier.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/12/global-economic-outlook-2026?utm_source=openai)) - **EU corridor:** - The EU maintains a **mid‑single‑digit share** of Indonesia’s trade (about 10% of total external trade, but much lower than China). Recent EU–Indonesia discussions focus on sustainability and deforestation‑related regulation, affecting **palm and wood‑based exports** rather than overall volumes yet, but EU Green Deal and deforestation regulation create **regulatory friction** on this corridor going into 2026.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia%E2%80%93European_Union_trade_relations?utm_source=openai)) **Container volume & route realignment context** - Up‑to‑date US import data (April 2026) show total US container imports at **2.28 million TEU (‑5.5% y/y)**, with China‑origin volumes **33% below their July 2024 peak**, indicating a broader **shift and diversification away from China origin**.([descartes.com](https://www.descartes.com/resources/knowledge-center/global-shipping-report-April-2026-container-imports-ease?utm_source=openai)) - Global trade monitors and 2026 outlooks highlight that **more than US$165 billion in trade has shifted away from the US–China corridor** since 2017, with some of that manufacturing and sourcing activity moving into **ASEAN, including Indonesia**, especially in metals and resource‑based sectors.([mckinsey.com](https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/geopolitics-and-the-geometry-of-global-trade-2026-update?utm_source=openai)) - For Indonesia, this manifests as: - Incremental **nickel and steel‑related export growth to China and India**, filling demand for battery and stainless steel supply chains.([petromindo.com](https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/indonesia-s-nickel-market-shifts-in-2026-as-intermediates-gain-ground-smm?utm_source=openai)) - **Diversified non‑oil & gas exports** (iron & steel, nickel products, palm oil, coal) supporting **high loaded export containerization on Asia‑bound routes**, while EU‑bound volumes remain smaller but higher value per TEU (wood, paper, specialty agri, some manufactured goods).([arc-group.com](https://arc-group.com/report/indonesia-economic-update-report-q3-2025/?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for trade flows in 2026** - **China and wider East Asia will remain the dominant corridors** for both bulk and containerized exports, supported by nickel, steel, palm oil and coal demand. - **US and EU corridors** are exposed to policy‑driven volatility (tariffs, sustainability rules), likely resulting in **slower growth or modest share erosion** rather than outright contraction in 2026.([mckinsey.com](https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/geopolitics-and-the-geometry-of-global-trade-2026-update?utm_source=openai)) - **India** remains a structurally growing buyer of Indonesian coal and palm oil, but import growth in 2026 may moderate due to weaker export performance and domestic macro headwinds; however, its share of Indonesia’s exports has been relatively stable (around mid‑single digits).([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/12/global-economic-outlook-2026?utm_source=openai)) **Sources for this section:** ([bps.go.id](https://www.bps.go.id/en/news/2026/01/05/836/indonesia-s-balance-of-trade-continues-to-record-a-surplus.html?utm_source=openai)) === 2. COMMODITY TRENDS – INDONESIAN PALM OIL / CPO, EXPORT POLICY & BIODIESEL (B30 → B35/B50, 2025–2026) === **Production, exports, and stocks** - **2025 output:** - Total Indonesian palm oil (CPO + PKO and derivatives) production reached **56.55 million tons** in 2025. - **CPO alone** was **51.66 million tons**, **+7.3% y/y** versus 48.16 million tons in 2024.([en.infosawit.com](https://en.infosawit.com/news/17423/indonesia---s-palm-oil-production-reaches-56-55-million-tons-in-2025--export-value-jumps-to-us-35-87-billion?utm_source=openai)) - **Exports 2025:** - Palm oil export value in 2025 climbed to **US$35.87 billion**, with the increase driven by both **higher export volumes and stronger prices**.([en.infosawit.com](https://en.infosawit.com/news/17423/indonesia---s-palm-oil-production-reaches-56-55-million-tons-in-2025--export-value-jumps-to-us-35-87-billion?utm_source=openai)) - **Stocks:** - Year‑end 2025 combined **CPO + PKO stocks** fell to **2.07 million tons**, **‑19.8% y/y** from 2.58 million tons at end‑2024, indicating tighter domestic balances heading into 2026 despite higher production.([en.infosawit.com](https://en.infosawit.com/news/17423/indonesia---s-palm-oil-production-reaches-56-55-million-tons-in-2025--export-value-jumps-to-us-35-87-billion?utm_source=openai)) **Domestic consumption and early 2026 trend** - GAPKI data for **February 2026** show **CPO production at 5.02 million tons**, up **5.0% m/m** from 4.78 million tons, with **exports and domestic consumption both higher**, while **stocks declined further**, consistent with firm drawdown from biodiesel and food sectors.([oilpalmworld.com](https://www.oilpalmworld.com/indonesia-update-production-consumption-and-exports-up-stock-declines/?utm_source=openai)) - Average **FOB/CIF price** (CIF Rotterdam benchmark) for Jan–Feb 2026 is cited around **US$1,306/ton**, versus **US$1,218/ton** for Jan–Feb 2025, a **~7% increase y/y**, supporting higher export values even with constrained volumes.([oilpalmworld.com](https://www.oilpalmworld.com/indonesia-update-production-consumption-and-exports-up-stock-declines/?utm_source=openai)) **Biodiesel mandate: B30/B35 current, B50 2026 target** - Indonesia has operated a **B30 nationwide mandate since 2020**, with selective B35 implementation over 2023–25, backed by compensation from the **Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Support Fund (CSF)** financed via export levies.([iisd.org](https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2026-02/indonesia-energy-support-measures-annex.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Biodiesel quota 2025 vs 2026:** - Government set the **2026 biodiesel quota at 15.646 million kL**, essentially **flat versus 2025**, according to APROBI (biofuel producers association).([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/122325-indonesia-keeps-2026-biodiesel-quota-flat-raising-doubts-over-b50-target?utm_source=openai)) - **B50 implementation and CPO demand impact:** - Market outlooks expect a **nationwide B50 target in 2026**. If fully implemented, APROBI estimates **biodiesel demand would reach ~19 million kL** in 2026, requiring **17–18 million metric tons of CPO feedstock** – a significant increase over current CPO usage in biodiesel.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/122325-indonesia-keeps-2026-biodiesel-quota-flat-raising-doubts-over-b50-target?utm_source=openai)) - Independent analysis notes Indonesia’s biodiesel production capacity is around **15.6 million kL**, below the roughly **20.1 million kL** estimated requirement for a full B50 rollout, highlighting a **capacity gap and potential phased implementation**.([sciencedirect.com](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421526000686?utm_source=openai)) **Price support for biodiesel (HIP) and linkage to CPO** - The Ministry of Energy sets a **Biodiesel Market Index Price (HIP)** monthly: - **January 2026 HIP:** **IDR 13,631/L**, up from **IDR 13,381/L** in December 2025.([petromindo.com](https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/energy-ministry-sets-january-2026-biodiesel-bioethanol-reference-prices?utm_source=openai)) - **May 2026 HIP:** **IDR 14,917/L** (excluding transport), reflecting further cost pass‑through of higher CPO prices.([palmoilmagazine.com](https://www.palmoilmagazine.com/biodiesel/2026/05/08/indonesia-sets-may-2026-biodiesel-market-index-price-at-idr-14917-per-liter/?utm_source=openai)) - These HIP levels are established under **Presidential Regulation No. 132/2024** on Plantation Fund Management, which governs use of export levy revenues to subsidize biodiesel, directly linking **export policy to domestic absorption**.([palmoilmagazine.com](https://www.palmoilmagazine.com/biodiesel/2026/05/08/indonesia-sets-may-2026-biodiesel-market-index-price-at-idr-14917-per-liter/?utm_source=openai)) **Export levy and duty framework – recent regulatory shifts** - **2024 levy simplification:** - **MoF Regulation No. 62/2024** restructured palm oil export levies into a **price‑bracket system** (26 product lines, including CPO, refined oils, and used cooking oil), replacing earlier flat levies and generally **lowering duties at then‑prevailing (Sept 2024) reference prices** to support exports as CPO exports softened.([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Indonesia+Simplifies+Palm+Oil+Export+Levies+in+Response+to+Decreasing+CPO+Exports+_Jakarta_Indonesia_ID2024-0025&utm_source=openai)) - **Late‑2025 / early‑2026 levy tightening:** - As prices and exports recovered, the government raised the CPO export levy. For example, **November 2025 CPO export levy set at US$124/MT** following a slight uptick in reference price.([palmoilmagazine.com](https://www.palmoilmagazine.com/cpo-price/2025/11/01/cpo-reference-price-rises-slightly-indonesia-sets-november-2025-export-levy-at-us124-mt/attachment/cpo-price-4-14/?utm_source=openai)) - By **March 2026**, new **MoF Regulation No. 9/2026** increased the **export levy rate on CPO to 12.5%** (versus the prior schedule in MoF 69/2025), explicitly to “increase added value at farmer and industry level” and fund plantation and biodiesel programs.([finance.detik.com](https://finance.detik.com/industri/d-8383263/ekspor-sawit-kena-getahnya-tarif-cpo-resmi-naik-jadi-12-5?utm_source=openai)) - Forward‑looking analysis (S&P Global) suggested **export levies could be hiked by about 5–7.5 percentage points between Nov 2025 and Jan 2026** to help finance higher biodiesel blending and compensate producers amid higher CPO prices.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121825-commodities-2026-firm-demand-to-offset-larger-supplies-in-palm-oil-markets?utm_source=openai)) **Impact on exportable surplus and trade flows** - **Domestic absorption:** - Moving from B30/B35 towards B50 would **shift an additional several million tons of CPO** from exports to domestic fuel use over 2026–27. APROBI’s 17–18 million MT CPO feedstock requirement for B50 compares with current total CPO output of ~52 million MT, implying **one‑third or more of CPO output could be locked into biodiesel at full B50**.([en.infosawit.com](https://en.infosawit.com/news/17423/indonesia---s-palm-oil-production-reaches-56-55-million-tons-in-2025--export-value-jumps-to-us-35-87-billion?utm_source=openai)) - **Stocks and price dynamics:** - The combination of **strong domestic biodiesel offtake, higher HIP prices, and firmer export prices** has already pushed **stocks down nearly 20% y/y by end‑2025**, tightening availability for incremental exports in early 2026.([en.infosawit.com](https://en.infosawit.com/news/17423/indonesia---s-palm-oil-production-reaches-56-55-million-tons-in-2025--export-value-jumps-to-us-35-87-billion?utm_source=openai)) - **Export volumes vs value:** - 2025–early 2026 narrative: **export volumes increased modestly, but value rose faster** due to higher prices (CIF Rotterdam +~7% y/y) and a **stronger levy/duty regime**, generating robust fiscal inflows for the biodiesel fund while discouraging excessive raw CPO exports.([oilpalmworld.com](https://www.oilpalmworld.com/indonesia-update-production-consumption-and-exports-up-stock-declines/?utm_source=openai)) - **Trade partners:** - Global outlooks foresee **firm palm oil demand in 2026**, with China (second‑largest importer) expected to raise imports to **~5.0 million MT in 2025/26 from 4.6 million MT**, benefiting Indonesian exporters, but the **domestic biodiesel pull and higher levies** will limit how much of the production gain is available for these markets.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121825-commodities-2026-firm-demand-to-offset-larger-supplies-in-palm-oil-markets?utm_source=openai)) **Policy trade‑offs** - Recent academic work on Indonesia’s biodiesel program finds that **higher biodiesel penetration boosts short‑run GDP via domestic demand and reduced fossil fuel imports**, but raises **fiscal pressure** on the fund and may **reduce palm oil export volumes**, especially if CPO prices stay high and subsidy coverage is partial (e.g., non‑PSO segments not fully compensated).([sciencedirect.com](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421526000686?utm_source=openai)) - Overall, **2026 palm oil policy is skewed toward domestic energy security and value‑addition (B35/B50, higher levies, HIP support)**, implying: - **Tighter exportable surplus** and **more volatile monthly export volumes**; - Higher export unit values but persistent **policy‑driven risk for international buyers**, particularly in India, China, and EU where dependence on Indonesian supplies is high.([en.infosawit.com](https://en.infosawit.com/news/17423/indonesia---s-palm-oil-production-reaches-56-55-million-tons-in-2025--export-value-jumps-to-us-35-87-billion?utm_source=openai)) **Sources for this section:** ([en.infosawit.com](https://en.infosawit.com/news/17423/indonesia---s-palm-oil-production-reaches-56-55-million-tons-in-2025--export-value-jumps-to-us-35-87-billion?utm_source=openai)) === 3. DEMAND SIGNALS – FREIGHT RATES & CAPACITY (INDONESIA → EAST ASIA & EUROPE, 2025–EARLY 2026) === *(Publicly available, corridor‑specific rate benchmarks Indonesia–EA/EU are sparse; most granular numbers sit behind commercial rate indices. Below are directional and structural signals from open sources, combined with system‑wide container market data.)* **Global container market backdrop 2025–2026** - As of **April 2026**, total US container imports were **2.28 million TEU (‑3.2% m/m, ‑5.5% y/y)**, with China‑origin TEUs down **>33% from their July 2024 peak**, indicating **softer transpacific demand** and more **spare global capacity**, indirectly affecting rate levels for backhaul legs from Asia (including Indonesia) to Europe and the US.([descartes.com](https://www.descartes.com/resources/knowledge-center/global-shipping-report-April-2026-container-imports-ease?utm_source=openai)) - Geopolitical disruptions (Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz) have continued to **lengthen Asia–Europe routes**, tightening effective vessel days and periodically supporting **rate spikes and schedule unreliability**, though once new tonnage delivers, capacity overhang tends to cap sustained rate inflation.([descartes.com](https://www.descartes.com/resources/knowledge-center/global-shipping-report-April-2026-container-imports-ease?utm_source=openai)) **Freight rates – Indonesia to East Asia (China, Japan, Korea)** - Direct, Indonesia‑specific spot rate prints (e.g., Jakarta–Shanghai, Surabaya–Busan) are mostly proprietary. However, given: - High growth in **Indonesia–China trade (13–15% y/y in 2025)**;([china-briefing.com](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-indonesia-trade-and-investment-profile-opportunities/?utm_source=openai)) - Continued build‑out of **nickel and steel exports** from Indonesia to China;([petromindo.com](https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/indonesia-s-nickel-market-shifts-in-2026-as-intermediates-gain-ground-smm?utm_source=openai)) - Overall softening in **Asia–US** lanes;([descartes.com](https://www.descartes.com/resources/knowledge-center/global-shipping-report-April-2026-container-imports-ease?utm_source=openai)) the net effect is **intense competition among carriers on intra‑Asia corridors**, with **rates in early 2026 generally below 2021–22 peaks and closer to 2018–19 averages**, albeit punctuated by **short‑term surcharges when port congestion or regional shocks occur**. - Intra‑Asia services tend to be **high‑frequency, feeder‑dominated** from Indonesia (Tanjung Priok, Tanjung Perak) into main hubs (Singapore, Port Klang, Hong Kong) for relay to North Asia. Excess capacity from large newbuilds delivered in 2025–26 into global fleets increases the availability of **slot space for Indonesian exports**, keeping **base rates competitive** while **accessorial charges (bunker, congestion, risk surcharges) remain volatile**.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/12/global-economic-outlook-2026?utm_source=openai)) **Freight rates – Indonesia to Europe** - Asia–Europe spot rates surged intermittently during late 2023–2025 due to **Red Sea diversions**; by early 2026, industry analysis suggests: - **Effective transit times** are still longer due to routing around high‑risk areas, which **raises operating cost per round‑trip**; - However, a wave of new capacity and weaker European import demand has put **downward pressure on base rates**, creating a **two‑directional effect**: lower all‑in freight than crisis peaks, but **still structurally higher than pre‑COVID** for some commodity exporters.([descartes.com](https://www.descartes.com/resources/knowledge-center/global-shipping-report-April-2026-container-imports-ease?utm_source=openai)) - For Indonesian shippers (palm oil, rubber, coffee, cocoa, wood products), this environment likely means: - **FOB netbacks** are squeezed less by sheer freight inflation but more by **risk premiums and schedule unreliability**, particularly for **reefer cargoes** (e.g., frozen seafood, chilled food) that are sensitive to transit extensions. **Blank sailings, capacity and reliability (Indonesia focus)** - Global carriers have used **blank sailings** aggressively since 2023 to balance capacity. Recent intelligence points to: - More **selective blanking on Asia–Europe and transpacific mainline services**, with **feeder schedules in Southeast Asia adjusted accordingly**, occasionally reducing weekly frequency out of Indonesia. - Yet the delivery of new, larger vessels from late 2024 through 2026 is creating an **overall capacity surplus**, so **slot availability out of Indonesian ports is generally adequate**, especially on **east‑bound intra‑Asia loops**.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/12/global-economic-outlook-2026?utm_source=openai)) **Reefer capacity and demand signals** - Indonesia’s export mix – including **fishery products, fresh and processed foods, and some high‑value horticulture** – supports structural demand for **reefer containers** on routes to **East Asia and the EU**. - With global reefer demand tracking overall food trade growth but vessel deliveries adding new reefer plugs, **competition among carriers for Indonesian reefer volumes** tends to **limit rate inflation**, though shippers may still face **peak‑season premiums** tied to specific fisheries or harvest cycles rather than system‑wide scarcity.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/12/global-economic-outlook-2026?utm_source=openai)) **Port congestion & operations – Tanjung Priok (Jakarta)** - Open sources in the last 6–9 months indicate **no 2021‑style chronic congestion at Tanjung Priok**; investments in yard and gate management plus digitalization have kept **average dwell times and truck turn‑around relatively stable**, with only **episodic delays** during holiday periods or labor actions. (Available public reports are qualitative; quantitative congestion indices remain proprietary.) - Continued growth in **nickel, steel and containerized palm products exports** is increasing throughput, but this is being offset by **operational upgrades and capacity expansion in Jakarta and alternative Indonesian ports**, limiting systemic congestion risk in early 2026.([arc-group.com](https://arc-group.com/report/indonesia-economic-update-report-q3-2025/?utm_source=openai)) **Net read‑through for 2026 Indonesia export logistics** - **East Asia lanes**: Competitive base freight, good capacity, high schedule frequency; suitable for sustained growth in **bulk‑to‑containerized commodities** (palm oil products in flexitanks/ISO tanks, processed foods, metals). - **Europe lanes**: Structurally higher cost than pre‑COVID due to geopolitically induced rerouting, but **not as tight as 2021–22**; reliability and risk surcharges are the main concerns for Indonesian exporters. - **Reefer and container availability**: Generally **adequate in 2026**, with localized tightness in peak seasons rather than structural shortages. - **Blank sailings**: More of a **timing/schedule risk** than a volume constraint; exporters need **flexible booking and safety lead times**, but should not expect chronic inability to secure slots.([descartes.com](https://www.descartes.com/resources/knowledge-center/global-shipping-report-April-2026-container-imports-ease?utm_source=openai)) **Sources for this section:** ([descartes.com](https://www.descartes.com/resources/knowledge-center/global-shipping-report-April-2026-container-imports-ease?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • Indonesia Ends 2025 With USD 41 Billion Trade Surplus https://www.ibai.or.id/news/item/9057-indonesia-ends-2025-with-usd-41-billion-trade-surplus.html?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Balance of Trade Continues to Record a Surplus - News and Press Release https://www.bps.go.id/en/news/2026/01/05/836/indonesia-s-balance-of-trade-continues-to-record-a-surplus.html?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Balance of Trade Continues to Record a Surplus - News and Press Release https://www.bps.go.id/en/news/2026/01/05/836/indonesia-s-balance-of-trade-continues-to-record-a-surplus.html?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Ends 2025 With USD 41 Billion Trade Surplus https://www.ibai.or.id/news/item/9057-indonesia-ends-2025-with-usd-41-billion-trade-surplus.html?utm_source=openai • April 2026 IIFA Working Paper No 001 April 2026 II https://iifa.uiii.ac.id/storage/upload/publication/198643_publication.pdf?utm_source=openai • Indonesia–European Union trade relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia%E2%80%93European_Union_trade_relations?utm_source=openai • No. 2026 - 2 https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ISEAS_EWP_2026-2_Pane.pdf?utm_source=openai • China-Indonesia Economic Partnership: A Closer Look https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-indonesia-trade-and-investment-profile-opportunities/?utm_source=openai • The future of global trade in 2026 | McKinsey https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/geopolitics-and-the-geometry-of-global-trade-2026-update?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Exports to China - 2026 Data 2027 Forecast 1989-2025 Historical https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/exports/china?utm_source=openai • China-Indonesia Economic Partnership: A Closer Look https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-indonesia-trade-and-investment-profile-opportunities/?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Balance of Trade | January 5th, 2026 https://phintracosekuritas.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Phintas-Domestic-Macro-Flash-Indonesia-Balance-of-Trade-November-2025-EN.pdf?utm_source=openai • Global Economic Outlook 2026 | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/12/global-economic-outlook-2026?utm_source=openai • Indonesia–European Union trade relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia%E2%80%93European_Union_trade_relations?utm_source=openai • No. 2026 - 2 https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ISEAS_EWP_2026-2_Pane.pdf?utm_source=openai • No. 2026 - 2 https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ISEAS_EWP_2026-2_Pane.pdf?utm_source=openai • The future of global trade in 2026 | McKinsey https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/geopolitics-and-the-geometry-of-global-trade-2026-update?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s nickel market shifts in 2026 as intermediates gain ground: SMM - Indonesia’s nickel market shifts in 2026 as intermediates gain ground: SMM https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/indonesia-s-nickel-market-shifts-in-2026-as-intermediates-gain-ground-smm?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Economic Update Report, Q3 2025 - ARC Group https://arc-group.com/report/indonesia-economic-update-report-q3-2025/?utm_source=openai • The future of global trade in 2026 | McKinsey https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/geopolitics-and-the-geometry-of-global-trade-2026-update?utm_source=openai • Global Economic Outlook 2026 | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/12/global-economic-outlook-2026?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Balance of Trade Continues to Record a Surplus - News and Press Release https://www.bps.go.id/en/news/2026/01/05/836/indonesia-s-balance-of-trade-continues-to-record-a-surplus.html?utm_source=openai • Palm Oil News - Indonesia’s Palm Oil Production Reaches 56.55 Million Tons in 2025, Export Value Jumps to US$35.87 Billion https://en.infosawit.com/news/17423/indonesia---s-palm-oil-production-reaches-56-55-million-tons-in-2025--export-value-jumps-to-us-35-87-billion?utm_source=openai • Palm Oil News - Indonesia’s Palm Oil Production Reaches 56.55 Million Tons in 2025, Export Value Jumps to US$35.87 Billion https://en.infosawit.com/news/17423/indonesia---s-palm-oil-production-reaches-56-55-million-tons-in-2025--export-value-jumps-to-us-35-87-billion?utm_source=openai • Palm Oil News - Indonesia’s Palm Oil Production Reaches 56.55 Million Tons in 2025, Export Value Jumps to US$35.87 Billion https://en.infosawit.com/news/17423/indonesia---s-palm-oil-production-reaches-56-55-million-tons-in-2025--export-value-jumps-to-us-35-87-billion?utm_source=openai