## Company Profile BERTLING LOGISTICS LLC — UAE branch of Bertling Group (freight forwarder & project logistics specialist). Services: project cargo & breakbulk, heavy‑lift chartering and multimodal forwarding (ocean, air, road), customs clearance and value‑added hub services from Dubai/Jebel Ali. Local note: recent public notice showed the Dubai office remained closed with colleagues working from home (operational disruption signal). Market position: specialist forwarder focused on complex, non‑containerised and time‑sensitive shipments, operating from a UAE hub that is central to GCC re‑export and project cargo flows. ## Pain Points 1) Routing and schedule volatility from Red Sea disruptions: Europe‑bound clients face longer transit times, war‑risk surcharges and unpredictable schedule changes; Bertling needs to offer credible alternatives (sea‑air, different origins, guaranteed loading) without owning a large origination/sourcing team. 2) Pressure to convert Jebel Ali O&D and GCC re‑export opportunities into contracted, value‑added services (temperature‑controlled consolidation, customs, regional distribution) while maintaining a lean commercial origination function. 3) Capacity & rate uncertainty (blank sailings, GRIs) causing margin erosion and customer disputes on lead times — requires dynamic, scenario‑based quoting and access to alternative supplier pools for expedited fulfilment. ## Intel Summary === MARKET_INTELLIGENCE === Below is a synthesized view by your three dimensions, focusing on what’s changed into 2026 and what it implies for UAE-based forwarders and hubs. --- ## 1) Market events – Red Sea / Bab el‑Mandeb disruption & routing patterns (2024–2026) **Status of the disruption** - Houthi attacks starting late‑2023 sharply reduced commercial traffic via Bab el‑Mandeb and the Red Sea, triggering large‑scale diversion of container vessels away from Suez to the Cape of Good Hope through 2024–2025.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea?utm_source=openai)) - Studies summarising 2024–early 2025 show: - Red Sea traffic down ~57–60%, Bab el‑Mandeb transits collapsing vs pre‑crisis levels.([iiss.org](https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2024/12/navigating-troubled-waters.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Rerouting via the Cape up ~70%+ vs prior year; Cape routes add ~30% transit time and ~4,500 nm, implying roughly +US$1m fuel cost per voyage for large container ships.([iiss.org](https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2024/12/navigating-troubled-waters.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Into 2026** - A number of mainline carriers began cautiously re‑introducing Red Sea/Suez routings in early‑2026 after some de‑escalation, but overall Suez traffic remains well below historic norms and security risk premia remain high.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/NoSpinMedia/comments/1q7rtb4/red_sea_shipping_resumes_trade_routes_reset/?utm_source=openai)) - As of Q1–Q2 2026, the Houthis retain capability and have threatened further escalation in the context of wider Iran‑related tensions; the market treats Red Sea as a *stabilised but not resolved* risk.([en.wikipedia.org](https://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) **Impact on global routing and Suez vs Cape usage** - Asia–Europe and Gulf–Europe strings are now split: some loops have returned to Suez with convoying and additional security, while others remain routed via the Cape to avoid political/military risk and war‑risk insurance costs.([isdo.ch](https://isdo.ch/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Analysis-of-maritime-geopolitics-on-early-2026-The-Red-Sea-Factor.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - For energy cargoes, Bab el‑Mandeb remains the only viable route for large volumes; container lines have slightly more routing flexibility but at a cost trade‑off.([en.wikipedia.org](https://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) **Specific implications for UAE freight forwarders & transshipment hubs (Dubai / Jebel Ali, Khalifa, etc.)** 1. **Longer transit times and higher base costs as a structural feature** - Even with partial return to Suez, a meaningful share of services is still via the Cape, locking in: - 10–15+ extra sailing days on Asia–Europe/Gulf–Europe trade, higher bunker consumption, and elevated insurance surcharges.([iiss.org](https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2024/12/navigating-troubled-waters.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Forwarders in UAE must assume **structurally longer lead‑times** and less schedule reliability on Europe‑linked routings through at least 2026. 2. **Demand for risk management / multimodal solutions** - The combination of Red Sea risk and exposure to other chokepoints (Hormuz) keeps shipper appetite high for: - Mode shifting (sea–air via UAE, pure air on high‑value goods). - Alternative routings via GCC ports and overland Gulf–Levant/Gulf–Turkey corridors where politically feasible. - Academic and industry work on “chokepoint correlation” (Hormuz + Bab el‑Mandeb) underlines the premium on diversified routing portfolios, which UAE‑based LSPs can monetise.([arxiv.org](https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.11990?utm_source=openai)) 3. **Transshipment & hub role** - Dubai/Jebel Ali remains a key East‑West hub; however, DP World acknowledges that **recent regional geopolitical developments have reduced inbound vessel traffic into Jebel Ali**, i.e., some services bypass or rationalise calls due to rerouting.([investegate.co.uk](https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/dp-world-limited--91sn/dp-world-limited-announces-fy2025-results/9470275?utm_source=openai)) - Expect continued **hub‑and‑spoke optimisation**: fewer but larger mainline calls, more reliance on feedering and cross‑Gulf / intra‑Middle East legs, which shifts opportunity from pure FCL ocean forwarding towards value‑added consolidation, deconsolidation, and cross‑dock at UAE hubs. --- ## 2) Demand signals – UAE throughput, re‑export flows, GCC food demand ### Jebel Ali / DP World throughput & UAE hub performance - DP World handled **93.4m TEU globally in 2025**, +5.8% YoY.([portseurope.com](https://www.portseurope.com/dp-world-container-throughput-reaches-93-4-million-teu-in-2025/?utm_source=openai)) - Jebel Ali itself: - Various 2025 summaries point to **record or near‑record container throughput**, with volumes around the mid‑teens million TEU (≈15–16m) and only marginal YoY growth (~0–1%) versus much stronger growth in other DP World regions.([maritimeprofessional.com](https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/world-hits-record-jebel-port-402507?utm_source=openai)) - DP World notes Jebel Ali origin‑and‑destination (O&D) cargo grew faster than transshipment, with ~9% YoY O&D volume growth in 2025, signalling stronger local/regional demand vs long‑haul transshipment.([marketresearch.com](https://www.marketresearch.com/Expert-Market-Research-v4220/UAE-Container-Terminal-Operations-Size-44619641/?utm_source=openai)) - Breakbulk in Jebel Ali hit a 20‑year high in late‑2025, tied to UAE project cargo (construction, energy, industrial).([seatrade-maritime.com](https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/dry-bulk/uae-projects-push-jebel-ali-to-20-year-breakbulk-high?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for 2026** - DP World’s FY2025 statements plus its ~US$3bn capex plan for 2026, heavily weighted to Jebel Ali and Jafza, suggest **confidence in continued throughput resilience and hub role**, despite some vessel rationalisation.([investegate.co.uk](https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/dp-world-limited--91sn/dp-world-limited-announces-fy2025-results/9470275?utm_source=openai)) - Throughput mix for 2026 is likely to skew further toward: - GCC & wider Middle East O&D cargo, including food and consumer goods. - Intra‑regional and South‑South flows (India–GCC–East Africa) using UAE as a consolidation / re‑export base. ### UAE re‑export and GCC food import demand - GCC economies are structurally food‑import dependent; a 2025 sector study projects GCC real GDP growth around 3% and continued **structural dependence on food imports** through at least 2026, despite local production initiatives.([alpencapital.com](https://alpencapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/GCC-Food-Industry-report_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Food and agri imports into GCC are expected to grow broadly in line with population and income (~2–4% annually), with **UAE central to re‑exporting** to Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen, Iraq, and East Africa through Jebel Ali and Jafza.([alpencapital.com](https://alpencapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/GCC-Food-Industry-report_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Sourcing and routing shifts affecting UAE flows** - Red Sea risk and cost inflation have triggered **portfolio diversification in sourcing**: - More cereals and oilseeds from Black Sea and Brazil; growing meat/dairy diversification; some substitution between EU and non‑EU suppliers depending on freight economics. (Inference from trade and freight patterns; directional, not quantified in one source.) - For UAE‑centric flows this implies: - Greater relative importance of **India, Pakistan, East Africa, and Brazil** as food supply origins feeding GCC via Jebel Ali and other UAE ports. - Potential marginal loss of some **EU–GCC cargo that now transits via alternative hubs** (e.g., direct Gulf calls or Mediterranean transshipment) when services are re‑drawn due to Red Sea/Suez schedule changes. **Takeaway for forwarders in UAE** - Net demand for handling food, FMCG, and project cargo through UAE remains **positive into 2026**. - Growth is being driven more by **regional consumption and re‑export** than by pure Asia–Europe transshipment, which means: - Strong opportunity in regional distribution contracts, value‑added services (temperature‑controlled warehousing, consolidation for Saudi and wider GCC), and customs/regulatory support. - Less guaranteed volume growth tied to classic East‑West mainline transshipment. --- ## 3) Timing signals – 2026 Q1–Q2 rates, capacity, and constraints ### Ocean freight rates: Middle East ↔ Europe / Asia There is limited lane‑specific public quoting for “Middle East–Europe” or “Middle East–Asia” in 2026, but they tend to move directionally with broader Asia–Europe and global indices, plus a Red Sea risk premium. - **Global container rate level:** - Drewry’s World Container Index in February 2026: around **US$1,900–1,960 per FEU composite**, down 30–50% YoY, reflecting a weak demand environment after the post‑pandemic boom.([trasportoeuropa.it](https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/english/container-freight-rates-from-asia-continue-to-fall-in-february-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - **Asia–Europe specifically entering 2026:** - S&P Global reports Asia–North Europe rates (PCR1/PCR11) at roughly **US$2,700/FEU in early January 2026**, up from late‑2025 on seasonal pre‑Lunar New Year demand and GRIs.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - Rates weakened again into February as demand softened, but remain above pre‑Red Sea‑crisis levels because of longer sailing routes and risk surcharges tied to Red Sea instability.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) **Middle East–Europe / Middle East–Asia implication** - Gulf–Europe lanes: pricing is **linked to Asia–Europe benchmarks plus or minus regional add‑ons**. With some services still via Cape and others cautiously back via Suez, forwarders see: - Elevated but volatile base rates vs pre‑2023. - Strong sensitivity to announcements about Red Sea security incidents and war‑risk surcharges. - Gulf–Asia (e.g., UAE–India/East Asia) is less directly affected by Red Sea risk; pricing is driven more by global oversupply of capacity and regional demand. Expect **softer, more competitive rates** here than on Europe‑linked trades, especially on high‑capacity corridors to India and China. ### Capacity management, blank sailings, schedule reliability (2026) - Despite soft demand, carriers are **actively managing capacity**: - Numerous blank sailings scheduled on Asia–Europe and transpacific in early 2026 to support rates.([trasportoeuropa.it](https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/english/container-freight-rates-from-asia-continue-to-fall-in-february-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Industry commentary through early‑2026 emphasises that **capacity control, not demand, is the main driver of rate resilience**.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - Market chatter as of late‑March 2026 points to renewed GRIs and further blank sailings, even as volumes soften, confirming this strategy.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1s2qic5/ocean_rates_up_as_volumes_continue_to_sink/?utm_source=openai)) **For UAE forwarders specifically** - Expect **intermittent tightness in space and equipment** on key loops (particularly those constrained by alternative routing around Africa), even when demand looks weak on paper. - Schedule reliability remains challenged: - Longer round‑voyage times via Cape reduce buffer in schedules. - Ad‑hoc re‑routing decisions (switching services back to Suez when security allows) create planning uncertainty on transit times and port rotation. Forwarder response levers in 2026: - Contract a **mix of long‑term and spot exposure** to manage volatility. - Emphasise **multi‑carrier options** on Europe‑bound cargo, with clear scenario‑based transit‑time expectations (Cape vs Suez route assumptions). - For food and time‑sensitive cargo, consider **guaranteed loading products**, premium services, or mode shift (sea‑air) despite higher cost, especially during GRI and blank‑sailing waves. ### Air cargo demand & capacity (2026) - Global backdrop: post‑pandemic, belly capacity has largely returned with passenger traffic; yields softened vs 2021–22 highs, but episodic fuel price surges and geopolitical risk keep some upward pressure.([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/2026-freight-market-outlook?utm_source=openai)) - As of March 2026, some reports note **sharp upward moves in air freight rates out of China (PVG ~US$7/kg on some lanes)** due to a fuel squeeze and modal shifts from ocean where delays/risk remain elevated.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1s2qic5/ocean_rates_up_as_volumes_continue_to_sink/?utm_source=openai)) **Relevance to UAE** - UAE (DXB, DWC, AUH) is a major air cargo hub with strong freighter fleets (Emirates SkyCargo, Etihad Cargo) and extensive belly capacity: - Red Sea/Suez disruption has pushed some high‑value, time‑sensitive goods (electronics, pharma, perishables) into **sea–air routings via UAE** or full air solutions, particularly on Asia–Europe / Asia–Africa trade. (Inference combining Red Sea disruption with UAE’s modal profile.) - For UAE forwarders in 2026: - Airfreight is an important **relief valve** when ocean reliability dips. - However, fuel‑driven spikes and constrained main‑deck capacity on key weeks require **tighter block‑space agreements and dynamic quoting** rather than assuming a permanently soft air market. --- ## Actionable implications for your strategy (2026 horizon) 1. **Pricing & contracting** - Base your budgets on **sustained, not transitory, extra cost** on Europe‑related ocean lanes (via Cape risk, war risk, longer transit), even if spot indices soften intermittently. - Lock in **core volumes under contracts** while keeping tactical flexibility for GRIs and blank‑sailing waves. 2. **Service portfolio for UAE forwarders** - Emphasise **end‑to‑end GCC distribution solutions** (particularly food, FMCG, pharma) leveraging Jebel Ali/Jafza and free‑zone value‑added services. - Build and market **sea–air products** via UAE, aimed at shippers seeking to hedge Red Sea or Suez risk. 3. **Customer advisory** - For Europe‑bound shippers, provide **scenario‑based lead‑time planning** (clear Suez vs Cape assumptions) and inventory strategy advice. - For food importers, advise on **sourcing diversification** and the routing/logistics implications of shifting origin (e.g., EU vs Black Sea vs Brazil vs India). If you want, I can next turn this into a 1–2 page client briefing or a set of slide bullets with quantified scenarios (e.g., transit‑time and cost deltas for Cape vs Suez on typical UAE–Europe lanes and their impact on safety‑stock requirements). Sources: • Red Sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea?utm_source=openai • Navigating Troubled https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2024/12/navigating-troubled-waters.pdf?utm_source=openai • Navigating Troubled https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2024/12/navigating-troubled-waters.pdf?utm_source=openai • 🚢 Red Sea Shipping Resumes: Trade routes reset 👇 https://www.reddit.com/r/NoSpinMedia/comments/1q7rtb4/red_sea_shipping_resumes_trade_routes_reset/?utm_source=openai • Red Sea crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai • Executive Summary https://isdo.ch/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Analysis-of-maritime-geopolitics-on-early-2026-The-Red-Sea-Factor.pdf?utm_source=openai • Red Sea crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai • Navigating Troubled https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2024/12/navigating-troubled-waters.pdf?utm_source=openai • Securing the Flow: Maritime Energy Resilience under Correlated and Decision-Dependent Disruptions https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.11990?utm_source=openai • DP World Limited announces FY2025 Results | Company Announcement | Investegate https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/dp-world-limited--91sn/dp-world-limited-announces-fy2025-results/9470275?utm_source=openai • DP World container throughput reaches 93.4 million TEU in 2025 https://www.portseurope.com/dp-world-container-throughput-reaches-93-4-million-teu-in-2025/?utm_source=openai • DP World Hits Record @ Jebel Ali Port https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/world-hits-record-jebel-port-402507?utm_source=openai • UAE Container Terminal Operations Market Size and Share - Growth Analysis Report and Forecast Trends (2026-2035) https://www.marketresearch.com/Expert-Market-Research-v4220/UAE-Container-Terminal-Operations-Size-44619641/?utm_source=openai • UAE projects push Jebel Ali to 20-year breakbulk high https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/dry-bulk/uae-projects-push-jebel-ali-to-20-year-breakbulk-high?utm_source=openai • DP World Limited announces FY2025 Results | Company Announcement | Investegate https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/dp-world-limited--91sn/dp-world-limited-announces-fy2025-results/9470275?utm_source=openai • GCC Food Industry | September 17, 2025 https://alpencapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/GCC-Food-Industry-report_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai • GCC Food Industry | September 17, 2025 https://alpencapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/GCC-Food-Industry-report_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai • Container freight rates from Asia continue to fall in February 2026 - TrasportoEuropa https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/english/container-freight-rates-from-asia-continue-to-fall-in-february-2026/?utm_source=openai • CONTAINERS QUARTERLY: Asia-Europe enters 2026 with seasonal firmness, structural uncertainty | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai • CONTAINERS QUARTERLY: Asia-Europe enters 2026 with seasonal firmness, structural uncertainty | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai • Container freight rates from Asia continue to fall in February 2026 - TrasportoEuropa https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/english/container-freight-rates-from-asia-continue-to-fall-in-february-2026/?utm_source=openai • CONTAINERS QUARTERLY: Asia-Europe enters 2026 with seasonal firmness, structural uncertainty | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai • Ocean Rates Up as Volumes Continue to Sink https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1s2qic5/ocean_rates_up_as_volumes_continue_to_sink/?utm_source=openai • 2026 Freight Market Outlook: Container Rates, Capacity, and Strategy - Import Intelligence | Cubic https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/2026-freight-market-outlook?utm_source=openai • Ocean Rates Up as Volumes Continue to Sink https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1s2qic5/ocean_rates_up_as_volumes_continue_to_sink/?utm_source=openai