## Company Profile ORIGIN FGL LOGISTICS JOINT STOCK COMPANY — freight forwarder headquartered in Türkiye. Public corporate page (http://www.originlog.com / https://originfgl.com/corporate-information/) positions the company as an international freight forwarder and logistics provider serving exporters and importers. While the site does not publish large-scale corporate metrics, the company appears to operate in Turkey’s major export corridors (Istanbul/Marmara, Aegean, Mediterranean) and offers the standard forwarder portfolio (ocean/air/road forwarding, customs documentation, and logistics coordination) used by agri-food shippers. ## Pain Points 1) Volatile origin supply for key Turkish agri exports (hazelnuts, dried apricots, olive oil) is creating short notice, front‑loaded sales and complex buyer requirements (traceability, QA). This forces forwarders to manage unpredictable shipment timing and increasingly granular compliance checks. 2) Route and policy risk (Black Sea corridor instability, past olive‑oil export bans, Red Sea security) increases insurance and re‑routing costs, squeezes margins on commodity volumes, and requires flexibility in multimodal planning. 3) Buyers are diversifying origins and splitting contracts to manage risk — forwarders must now offer more than transport (buyer introductions, supplier matching, consolidated compliance) to capture and retain high‑value agri export business. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. COMMODITY TRENDS – TURKISH AGRI EXPORTS (HAZELNUTS, OLIVE OIL, DRIED FRUITS) INTO 2026 === **Hazelnuts** - Turkey remains ~70% of global hazelnut supply. A severe frost in April 2025 sharply reduced the 2025/26 crop, tightening global supply and pushing prices up. ([heliosingredients.com](https://heliosingredients.com/hazelnut-market-update-april-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - One major market report (Apr 2026) notes 2025/26 Turkish hazelnut export volumes down about **50% season‑to‑date (Sep–Mar)** vs the previous season (≈104,762 MT vs ≈205,934 MT). ([heliosingredients.com](https://heliosingredients.com/hazelnut-market-update-april-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Another source summarizing official data says Turkey ended **calendar 2025** with hazelnut export volumes down **26%** and export revenue down **14%** vs 2024, a loss of roughly **USD 380 million** despite record‑high prices; performance in the first four months of the 2025/26 season fell to levels last seen in the 1980s. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiye-earns-380-million-less-from-hazelnuts-as-exports-drop-26-3212529?utm_source=openai)) - Earlier in the 2024/25 season, exports were still growing: between Sep 1, 2024 and Jan 31, 2025, exports reached **160,412 t** and **USD 1.3 bn**, up **13.3% in volume** and **28.7% in revenue** year‑on‑year, indicating strong price appreciation even before the 2025 frost shock. ([cropgpt.ai](https://cropgpt.ai/turkey-hazelnuts-export-volume-and-revenue-dynamics?utm_source=openai)) - Domestic support & prices: the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) set 2024/25 procurement prices at **TL 130/kg** (Levant) and **TL 132/kg** (Giresun, 50% yield basis), significantly above previous seasons and contributing to high farmgate costs that underpin elevated export prices. ([arslanturk.com.tr](https://www.arslanturk.com.tr/Kategori/reports/?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for 2026:** - 2025 frost damage plus high internal costs mean **tight physical availability and structurally high prices at least into the 2026 marketing year**. - Buyers are front‑loading contracts and some are diversifying into almonds and walnuts where possible, but Turkey’s dominant share and EU confectionery specifications limit substitution. --- **Olive Oil** - Turkey imposed a ban on **bulk olive oil exports** in August 2023 to control domestic inflation; this was partly relaxed from **1 June to 1 November 2024**, allowing **50,000 t** of bulk/barreled exports. ([fas2.stg.platform.usda.gov](https://fas2.stg.platform.usda.gov/data/turkiye-turkiye-provides-temporary-relief-olive-oil-export-ban?utm_source=openai)) - The partial lifting recognized a **projected bumper 2024/25 olive crop**, with producers arguing the restrictions had not delivered lower domestic prices while damaging export competitiveness and supply relationships with EU/MENA buyers. ([oliveoiltimes.com](https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/business/africa-middle-east/turkey-eases-export-ban-following-intense-lobbying/132210?utm_source=openai)) - EU monitoring shows its imports from Türkiye of “olives and olive oil” reached **EUR 289 m in 2023**, up from **EUR 241 m in 2022** and **EUR 120 m in 2021**, with a **19.7% share** in EU agri‑food imports from Türkiye. ([agriculture.ec.europa.eu](https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-05/agrifood-turkiye_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for 2026:** - The structural story is **volume volatility and policy risk** rather than a clear up‑ or down‑trend in tonnage: - Good crop in 2024/25 supports potential export growth. - Export bans/quotas on bulk shipments create uncertainty, pushing some EU packers to diversify to Spain, Greece, Tunisia and Morocco. - Assuming no renewed blanket ban through 2026, expect **higher volumes in packaged oil and controlled but growing bulk flows**, with prices still elevated versus pre‑2022 levels but easing from the 2023–24 peak as global olive output improves. --- **Dried Fruits (apricots, figs, raisins)** *Dried apricots* - A **severe frost in Malatya in April 2025** cut Turkey’s 2025 dried‑apricot crop to a **small fraction of normal**. Industry estimates for 2025/26 production are around **2,000 t vs ~100,000 t in a normal year** (≈98% loss). ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/dried-apricots-hold-firm-as-malatya-enters-critical-bloom-window/?utm_source=openai)) - Export volumes in August 2025 were down **>60% y/y**, export revenue down about **43%**, while **unit export prices were ~47% higher** vs August 2024. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/dried-apricots-hold-firm-as-malatya-enters-critical-bloom-window/?utm_source=openai)) - Trade briefings warn of **insufficient carryover to bridge to the 2026 harvest**, implying continued scarcity and high prices through most of 2026 even if weather normalizes. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/dried-apricots-hold-firm-as-malatya-enters-critical-bloom-window/?utm_source=openai)) *Dried figs* - For 2024/25, Turkey produced **68,138 t** of dried figs, of which Aydın province accounted for **52,483 t (≈77%)**, representing **97% of national production** and **79% of exports**. ([mundus-agri.eu](https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/dried-figs-climate-change-presents-challenge.n35191.html?utm_source=openai)) - Reports highlight climate‑change‑related risks (heat, irregular rainfall) but no 2025/26 disaster on the scale of apricots; prices have strengthened but remain more manageable than apricots. *Raisins & other dried fruits* - Recent export‑statistics reporting (EU/Turkish sources) indicates dried‑fruit and nut preparations are one of the fastest‑growing EU import lines from Türkiye, with the category “preparations of fruit, nuts and vegetables” rising from **EUR 1.078 bn (2019) to EUR 1.604 bn (2023)**, reaching **21–22%** of total EU agri‑food imports from Türkiye. ([agriculture.ec.europa.eu](https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-05/agrifood-turkiye_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Within this, sultana/raisin and mixed dried‑fruit exports have seen **moderate volume growth and firm prices**, as some demand shifts away from price‑explosive Turkish apricots into figs, raisins and competing origins (Uzbekistan, Iran, South Africa, Chile). ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/dried-apricots-hold-firm-as-malatya-enters-critical-bloom-window/?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for 2026:** - **Hazelnuts & apricots:** constrained volumes and high prices into at least late 2026. - **Olive oil & other dried fruits:** more benign supply outlook but with **policy and climate volatility** keeping risk premiums in prices. - EU data confirm that **fruit, nuts, dried preparations and olive oil now account for over 40% of EU agri‑food imports from Türkiye by value**, underlining their strategic export role. ([agriculture.ec.europa.eu](https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-05/agrifood-turkiye_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (COMMODITY TRENDS):** ([heliosingredients.com](https://heliosingredients.com/hazelnut-market-update-april-2026/?utm_source=openai)) === 2. MARKET EVENTS – TURKEY FREIGHT FORWARDING, CONTAINER RATES, ISTANBUL/BLACK SEA, POST‑GRAIN DEAL === **Black Sea Grain Deal termination and trade re‑routing** - The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the UN and Türkiye in July 2022, allowed safe passage of Ukrainian grain exports via a humanitarian corridor to the Bosphorus. Russia withdrew in **July 2023**, ending the deal. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative?utm_source=openai)) - After the deal’s collapse, Ukraine’s seaborne grain exports dropped from around **6.5 million t/month to just over 2 million t** in July–September 2023, before recovering via alternative Danube and Romanian routes (e.g. Constanța). ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/Agriculture/comments/1c7ubnz?utm_source=openai)) **Impact on Turkish ports & freight forwarders (2023–2026)** - The loss of the formal corridor reduced some transit throughput at Istanbul and nearby Black Sea ports that had serviced Ukrainian flows under UN supervision, but: - Increased use of **Danube–Constanța routes and alternative Black Sea lanes** has maintained regional grain traffic, with Turkish forwarders still heavily involved in multi‑leg routings and insurance/brokerage. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/Agriculture/comments/1c7ubnz?utm_source=openai)) - Turkey’s own grain, oilseed and agri‑food exports (hazelnuts, dried fruits, flour/pasta, vegetable oils) continue to move mainly via **Marmara (Ambarlı/Istanbul), Aegean (Izmir, Aliaga) and Mediterranean (Mersin, Iskenderun)**, which have seen **periodic congestion spikes** linked more to global container imbalances and Red Sea disruptions than to the Black Sea deal per se. **Container‑rate environment into 2026** - Global container‑freight indicators through late 2025 show: - Spot rates that spiked in 2021–22 normalized in 2023–24, then faced renewed volatility due to Red Sea security issues and diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1o7f307?utm_source=openai)) - By Q4 2025, major indices (e.g. Freightos) were **down year‑on‑year**, with some lanes “back to 2023 levels” despite ongoing congestion and labor disruptions at certain ports; this reflects vessel overcapacity offsetting geopolitical shocks. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1o7f307?utm_source=openai)) - For Turkish trades specifically (Europe–Turkey–MENA): - Forwarder commentaries and carrier advisories in late 2025/early 2026 describe **elevated but easing rates** versus the 2021–22 peak; east‑Med export rates to N. Europe and the UK are generally **USD 800–1,400/FEU for standard dry** depending on season and routing, with surcharges for re‑routed Red Sea services. (Inference based on market reports comparing current levels with global indices.) ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1o7f307?utm_source=openai)) - Local disruptions (e.g., weather closures in the Bosphorus, periodic congestion at Ambarlı/Marmara) still cause **short‑term rate spikes and rolled bookings**, but these are episodic rather than structural. **Turkey’s freight‑forwarding market dynamics** - Turkey’s logistics and forwarding sector has benefited from its role as: - A **land bridge between Asia and Europe**, - A **transshipment node for Russian and Central Asian cargoes**, and - An **alternative origin/supplier** as EU and MENA buyers diversify away from Ukraine/Russia for grains and from some traditional Mediterranean origins for olive oil and dried fruits. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Turkey?utm_source=openai)) - Reports on Turkey–Russia trade show total bilateral trade **down 6.6% in 2025 vs 2024** (to USD 49.1 bn) with Turkish exports to Russia down **21.5%**, reducing some northbound freight volumes via the Black Sea and overland routes. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/CollapseOfRussia/comments/1t2mpgp/turkey-reports-sharp-decline-in-trade-with_russia/?utm_source=openai)) - Forwarders with strong agri portfolios in Istanbul/Mersin report: - **More complex routings** (e.g. via Mediterranean hubs, avoiding high‑risk Black Sea areas for insurance reasons). - Increased demand for **multimodal solutions (rail/road + short‑sea)** for EU‑bound agri‑food, especially to Central/Eastern Europe, as buyers seek to derisk supply chains post‑grain‑deal and post‑pandemic. **Implications for 2026 for Turkish agri exporters** - **Freight costs vs 2021–22:** significantly lower than the COVID‑era peak but **still structurally above 2018–19 levels**, compressing margins on lower‑value bulk commodities (wheat, barley, corn) more than on high‑value hazelnuts, olive oil and dried fruits. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1o7f307?utm_source=openai)) - **Port/route risk:** - Black Sea: ongoing war‑risk premiums and insurance constraints; most incremental growth in Turkey’s agri‑food exports is using **Marmara, Aegean and Med routes** rather than Black Sea ports. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative?utm_source=openai)) - Red Sea/Suez: any renewed escalation would again push Turkey–Asia and Turkey–MENA carriers to re‑route, raising rates and transit times for export containers. - **Forwarder strategy:** consolidation around larger, integrated players able to: - Offer visibility on risk surcharges, - Bundle **cold‑chain and value‑added services** (stuffing, QC, documentation for EU/MENA food safety), and - Negotiate better long‑term contracts with carriers. **Sources (MARKET EVENTS):** ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative?utm_source=openai)) === 3. DEMAND SIGNALS – EU & MENA BUYER DEMAND FOR TURKISH AGRI‑FOOD IN 2026 === **EU demand & diversification** - An EU agri‑food trade briefing (2024) shows **EU imports from Türkiye rising steadily**, with top lines including: - “Preparations of fruit, nuts and vegetables”: **EUR 1.604 bn in 2023**, up from **EUR 1.078 bn in 2019**, accounting for **~21–22%** of EU agri‑food imports from Türkiye. - “Olives and olive oil”: **EUR 289 m in 2023**, up from **EUR 241 m (2022)** and **EUR 120 m (2021)**, representing **~20% share** of imports from Türkiye in that sub‑group. ([agriculture.ec.europa.eu](https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-05/agrifood-turkiye_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - The same report notes **fruit and nuts (including dried)** are now the **second‑largest EU agri‑food import category overall**, underscoring structural demand for Turkish hazelnuts and dried fruits. ([agriculture.ec.europa.eu](https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/document/download/8e6be7cf-e1d2-48fd-9114-90c448e09643_en?filename=monitoring-agri-food-trade_dec2024_en.pdf&utm_source=openai)) - In nuts specifically, industry data for the 2024/25 hazelnut season show EU buyers increased volumes early (Sep 2024–Jan 2025 exports +13.3% in tonnage, +28.7% in value vs prior season) as confectioners anticipated tight global supply and sought to secure Turkish origin ahead of the 2025 frost damage. ([cropgpt.ai](https://cropgpt.ai/turkey-hazelnuts-export-volume-and-revenue-dynamics?utm_source=openai)) **MENA & other markets** - World Bank/Comtrade data on 2024 dried‑apricot exports show Türkiye still dominant: for example, exports to India alone in 2024 totaled **1,011,640 kg** (5.48 million USD) under HS 081310. ([wits.worldbank.org](https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/TUR/year/2024/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/081310?utm_source=openai)) - Regional trade analyses highlight strong Turkish dried‑fruit and nut exports to **MENA (notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Algeria)**, where Turkish origin competes with Iranian and Central Asian suppliers but retains advantages in logistics lead times and perceived quality. (Inference from direction of trade flows under relevant HS codes.) ([wits.worldbank.org](https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/TUR/year/2024/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/081310?utm_source=openai)) - Olive oil: with drought‑affected crops in Spain and Italy in 2022–23, MENA importers (e.g. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan) increased sourcing from **Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco**, using Turkey as both origin and redistribution hub for packed oils. EU data showing rising imports of “olives and olive oil” from Türkiye support this broader demand pattern. ([oliveoiltimes.com](https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/business/africa-middle-east/turkey-eases-export-ban-following-intense-lobbying/132210?utm_source=openai)) **Buyers seeking alternative suppliers / re‑sourcing patterns** - **Hazelnuts:** - The 2025 frost‑induced supply shock and the **26% decline in Turkish export volumes in 2025** have pushed EU and MENA buyers to explore alternative origins (Georgia, Italy, Azerbaijan) and other nuts (almonds, walnuts) where formulations allow. Nevertheless, technical specs and Turkey’s ~70% share mean Turkey remains the **indispensable core supplier**, with buyers more focused on **multi‑supplier strategies within Turkey** and earlier contracting than outright country‑switching. ([heliosingredients.com](https://heliosingredients.com/hazelnut-market-update-april-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - **Dried apricots:** - The catastrophic 2025 crop (≈2,000 t vs ~100,000 t normal) led to **>60% fall in export volumes and ~47% jump in prices**, forcing importers to secure **alternative dried fruits (figs, dates, prunes, raisins)** and non‑Turkish apricot sources where available (Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Iran). Trade press notes that this **cannot fully substitute Turkish apricots** in all applications, but clear buyer behavior is to **diversify away from single‑origin dependence** for 2026 and beyond. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/dried-apricots-hold-firm-as-malatya-enters-critical-bloom-window/?utm_source=openai)) - **Olive oil:** - Turkey’s 2023–24 bulk export bans and partial relaxations led EU/MENA bottlers to hedge by shifting some contracts to **Spain, Greece, Portugal, Tunisia and Morocco**, particularly for private‑label volumes where origin is less visible to end‑consumers. Some buyers explicitly cite **policy unpredictability** in Turkey as a driver of this diversification. ([fas2.stg.platform.usda.gov](https://fas2.stg.platform.usda.gov/data/turkiye-turkiye-provides-temporary-relief-olive-oil-export-ban?utm_source=openai)) **Net 2026 demand signal for Turkish agri‑food** - **Positive structural demand:** - EU imports of fruit, nuts, dried‑fruit preparations and olive oil from Türkiye are on a **multi‑year upward trend**, reflecting both consumption growth and Turkey’s competitive position. ([agriculture.ec.europa.eu](https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-05/agrifood-turkiye_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - MENA demand for value‑added Turkish food products (confectionery, biscuits, pasta, processed foods using hazelnuts/dried fruits/olive oil) continues to rise alongside population and income growth. (Inference from trade flows and regional demographics.) ([wits.worldbank.org](https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/TUR/year/2024/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/081310?utm_source=openai)) - **Risk‑management behavior by buyers:** - Climate shocks (apricots, hazelnuts), ad‑hoc trade measures (olive oil export bans) and freight volatility are driving **active diversification of suppliers** within and beyond Turkey. - For 2026 tenders, EU and MENA importers are: - Requesting **shorter contract durations** or more flexible pricing mechanisms to handle commodity price swings. - Splitting volumes between **multiple Turkish suppliers** and at least one **alternative origin** to manage supply‑disruption risk. - Placing a premium on suppliers with **strong logistics capabilities and verified compliance** with EU food‑safety, pesticide‑residue and sustainability requirements. **Overall 2026 outlook:** - Expect **continued strong underlying demand** for Turkish hazelnuts, olive oil and dried fruits in EU and MENA markets, but within a framework where buyers consciously avoid over‑reliance on a single Turkish origin/product. - For suppliers and forwarders, the opportunity lies in **offering reliability, traceability and logistics resilience** to capture share in a market that is growing but also **more risk‑sensitive and diversified** than pre‑2022. **Sources (DEMAND SIGNALS):** ([agriculture.ec.europa.eu](https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-05/agrifood-turkiye_en.pdf?utm_source=openai))