## Company Profile INDAIA LOGISTICA INTERNACIONAL LTDA — Brazilian freight forwarder / trade consultancy (website: myindaia.com.br). Offers import/export consulting and customs-related services to Brazilian traders; likely supports Siscomex filings, RADAR habilitation guidance and operational freight forwarding (booking, documentation, customs clearance). Appears positioned as a consultancy for SMEs and mid‑size exporters/importers rather than a large carrier or terminal operator. Public scale not available from open sources; contact is Carolina Fernandes (Consultoria). ## Pain Points 1) Operational scaling & customs complexity for SME clients: Portal Único/DUIMP rollout, API access keys, RADAR habilitation and new AEO tiers push digital and compliance work onto consultorias/forwarders. Indaia's clients likely need help with filings, data integration, and traceability — tasks that are time‑consuming and require technical resources. 2) Booking reliability & margin pressure on agribulk clients: Record soybean/corn crops and heavier flows to Asia increase demand for slots while Santos shows ~60% schedule unreliability and modestly higher freight rates to Asia (10–20% vs 2024). Exporters need alternative buyer channels, flexible logistics and execution to protect margins and ensure delivery windows. 3) Market access & sustainability rules: EU due‑diligence (EUDR) and buyer requirements are shifting volumes toward Asia/MENA for uncertified product; exporters need buyer‑matching and traceability tools to access premium markets and to avoid being left with lower‑value channels. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. COMMODITY TRENDS – BRAZIL AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS 2026 (SOYBEANS, CORN, SUGAR, COFFEE) === **Overall agribusiness exports & price environment** - Brazilian agribusiness exports reached about **US$10.8 billion in January 2026**, down **2.2% YoY in value**, even though shipped volume grew **7%**, reflecting lower international prices across major commodities. ([agribrasilis.com](https://agribrasilis.com/2026/02/19/brazilian-agribusiness-exports-totaled-us-10-8-billion-in-january-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - IDB trade estimates show **soybean prices down ~6.7% YoY** (Jan–Nov 2025) and **sugar prices down ~17.4% YoY** over the same period, with weakness into 2026 as higher global production (notably in India) weighs on prices. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-Trends-Estimates-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.-2026-Edition.pdf?utm_source=openai)) --- #### Soybeans **Production & export volumes** - USDA/FAS and CONAB point to a **record Brazil soybean crop in MY 2025/26**. Recent USDA and related analyses put production in the **172–179 million ton** range (roughly **+3–4% vs 2024/25**), with Brazil maintaining its position as the world’s largest soybean producer. ([ipad.fas.usda.gov](https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/?utm_source=openai)) - A recent Brazilian grain export group (ANEC) release projects **Brazilian soybean exports in calendar 2026 above 108 million tons**, maintaining Brazil as the top global supplier. For May alone, projected shipments are **~15.99 million tons**, higher than May 2025. ([portaldoagronegocio.com.br](https://www.portaldoagronegocio.com.br/agricultura/soja/noticias/exportacoes-brasileiras-de-soja-disparam-em-2026-e-anec-projeta-embarques-acima-de-108-milhoes-de-toneladas?utm_source=openai)) - A separate industry piece cites projections of **~114 million tons of soybean exports in MY 2025/26**, another record. ([ams.usda.gov](https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR01152026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Buyer destinations & shifts** - China remains the dominant buyer: - In 2025, Brazil reportedly supplied **about 73–75% of China’s soybean imports**, up from roughly **71%** the previous year. ([riotimesonline.com](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-agribusiness-2026-guide/?utm_source=openai)) - In 2026 year‑to‑date, multiple sources confirm **China as the main destination** for Brazilian soy, with one report noting **>6.5 million tons shipped to China early in 2026**, well ahead of Argentina and the U.S. as competing suppliers. ([cnnbrasil.com.br](https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/agro/brasil-lidera-embarques-de-soja-para-a-china-em-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - US–China trade frictions and periods of **near‑zero Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans (for several months in late 2025 into early 2026)** have reinforced Brazil’s role as China’s default supplier. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/122325-commodities-2026-us-brazil-soybean-trade-seen-hinging-on-chinas-imports?utm_source=openai)) - For **Europe**, Brazil’s soybean shipments are increasingly shaped by **deforestation‑linked due‑diligence rules** (EU Deforestation Regulation). Major traders (e.g., Cargill, ADM, Amaggi) are investing in **satellite‑based traceability** to protect EU market access, but there is a gradual **reorientation of some volume toward less‑regulated Asian and Middle Eastern markets** where premiums/requirements are lower. ([riotimesonline.com](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-agribusiness-2026-guide/?utm_source=openai)) **Price levels** - With a record Brazilian crop and strong South American competition, global soybean prices into early 2026 are **lower than a year earlier**, with IDB noting **–6.7% YoY** across Jan–Nov 2025; USDA’s January 2026 Oilseeds Outlook also highlights ample South American supplies as a key bearish factor. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-Trends-Estimates-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.-2026-Edition.pdf?utm_source=openai)) --- #### Corn **Production & export volumes** - USDA/FAS grain circulars and IPAD data for MY 2025/26 point to Brazil remaining among the top two corn exporters globally, with exports in the **mid‑40s million‑ton range** (order of magnitude), supported by a large safrinha (second) crop. ([ipad.fas.usda.gov](https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/cropview/commodityView.aspx?cropid=0440000&rankby=Exports&sel_year=2025&utm_source=openai)) - ANEC data cited in Brazilian media show **Brazilian corn exports reaching ~5.78 million tons by May 2026**, indicating solid early‑season shipments despite competition from U.S. and Black Sea origin. ([portaldoagronegocio.com.br](https://www.portaldoagronegocio.com.br/agricultura/soja/noticias/exportacoes-brasileiras-de-soja-disparam-em-2026-e-anec-projeta-embarques-acima-de-108-milhoes-de-toneladas?utm_source=openai)) **Buyer destinations & shifts** - Since 2022, China has emerged as a **major buyer of Brazilian corn**. USDA and market commentaries indicate that by 2025 China had become one of the top destinations for Brazilian corn exports, and this trend **continues into 2026** as China diversifies away from U.S. origin. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf?v=1736168254879&utm_source=openai)) - **North Africa, Middle East, and Asian markets** (Vietnam, Japan, South Korea) remain important for Brazilian corn, but relative share is tilting more toward **China and other Asian buyers**, partly due to freight arbitrage and long‑term contracts. **Price levels** - Global corn prices into 2026 are under pressure from: - Large South American crops (Brazil and Argentina) - Good U.S. yields USDA’s March 2026 grain circular characterizes the world corn market as **well‑supplied**, with modest price downside versus 2024. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf?v=1736168254879&utm_source=openai)) --- #### Sugar **Export volumes & destinations** - Brazil remains the **world’s largest sugar exporter**, and the Port of Santos data show sugar as the **second‑largest export commodity** there in 2025 at **24.1 million tons**, after soybeans (44.9 million) and ahead of corn (15.2 million). ([datamarnews.com](https://datamarnews.com/noticias/brazils-port-of-santos-posts-record-cargo-volumes-in-2025/?utm_source=openai)) - In 2025/26, high Brazilian cane yields and favorable ethanol/sugar parity support **high sugar export availability**: - Market reports suggest **double‑digit growth in Brazil’s sugar exports** vs 2023/24, with heavy flows to **Asia (notably India, Indonesia, Bangladesh), the Middle East, and North Africa**, while **EU imports remain constrained** by quota and sustainability rules. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-Trends-Estimates-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.-2026-Edition.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Price levels** - IDB notes sugar prices fell **–17.4% YoY through Nov 2025**, after a **–13.7%** decline in 2024, reflecting: - Strong Brazilian output - Improved weather and higher production in India - Softer demand growth This weak price environment persists into early 2026 despite occasional weather‑driven volatility. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-Trends-Estimates-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.-2026-Edition.pdf?utm_source=openai)) --- #### Coffee **Export volumes & composition** - Brazil remains the **largest coffee producer and exporter**, with approximately **87% arabica share** in its coffee output. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-Trends-Estimates-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.-2026-Edition.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - While detailed 2026‑YTD tonnages by destination are still being compiled, 2025 data show robust shipments: - **EU and U.S.** remain top markets, but **Asia (notably China and South Korea)** is the fastest‑growing destination cluster for Brazilian coffee. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-Trends-Estimates-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.-2026-Edition.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Buyer shifts** - The **EU** remains the largest single regional buyer of Brazilian coffee, but facing: - **EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)** and due‑diligence requirements - Increasing demand for verified‑sustainable coffee Brazilian exporters are investing in **farm‑level traceability and certification**; some **non‑compliant or uncertified volumes are gradually redirected to Middle Eastern and Asian buyers** with less stringent ESG requirements. ([riotimesonline.com](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-agribusiness-2026-guide/?utm_source=openai)) **Summary of destination shifts (2026 vs prior years)** - **Soybeans:** Further **concentration in China** (around three‑quarters of Chinese imports) and incremental **diversification into other Asian buyers**, while EU’s share is pressured by sustainability rules. ([riotimesonline.com](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-agribusiness-2026-guide/?utm_source=openai)) - **Corn:** Continued structural shift toward **China** as a key destination, plus steady demand from other Asian and MENA buyers. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf?v=1736168254879&utm_source=openai)) - **Sugar:** Strong flows to **Asia, Middle East, and North Africa**; **EU share modest**, partially constrained by trade and sustainability policies. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-Trends-Estimates-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.-2026-Edition.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Coffee:** Traditional markets (EU, U.S.) still dominant in value, but **Asia’s share is rising**, with China increasingly visible in Brazilian export stats. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-Trends-Estimates-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.-2026-Edition.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Commodity Trends** ([portaldoagronegocio.com.br](https://www.portaldoagronegocio.com.br/agricultura/soja/noticias/exportacoes-brasileiras-de-soja-disparam-em-2026-e-anec-projeta-embarques-acima-de-108-milhoes-de-toneladas?utm_source=openai)) === 2. MARKET EVENTS – BRAZIL CUSTOMS & TRADE POLICY / SISCOMEX & DIGITALIZATION, 2026 === **Siscomex and Portal Único – system evolution and access** - Siscomex remains the **sole legal channel** for registering foreign trade operations in Brazil. In **2026**, it is in **full transition to the Portal Único Siscomex**, a modern, web‑based platform gradually replacing legacy modules. ([guelcos.com.br](https://guelcos.com.br/conteudo/importacao/siscomex/?utm_source=openai)) - The Portal Único uses **API‑based “chaves de acesso” (access keys)**: users (legal entities or individuals) can generate and manage keys to integrate their ERPs/TMS with Siscomex services. Recent documentation (updated **4 days ago**) emphasizes: - Users can manage keys per CNPJ they are linked to. - Recommendation **not to store keys locally** in third‑party systems, for security. ([docs.portalunico.siscomex.gov.br](https://docs.portalunico.siscomex.gov.br/pages/chaves-acesso/?utm_source=openai)) - Official LGPD/terms‑of‑use page for Siscomex was **updated on 6 February 2026**, signaling continuing adjustments to data‑protection and privacy compliance for system users. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/pt-br/lgpd/siscomex?utm_source=openai)) **Company habilitation and access thresholds (RADAR regime)** - To operate on Siscomex, companies must be **habilitated** under one of three sub‑modalities: - **Expressa** (small volumes) - **Limitada** - **Ilimitada** – for firms intending to import **more than US$150,000 per rolling 6‑month period**, effectively setting a **threshold for higher‑capacity operators**. ([fazcomex.com.br](https://www.fazcomex.com.br/siscomex/habilitar-empresa-portal-unico-siscomex/?utm_source=openai)) - Habilitation requires linking **CNPJ to the legal representative’s CPF** and may involve a **Dossiê Digital de Atendimento (DDA)** when the request is selected for detailed analysis (per IN RFB 1.603/2015). ([fazcomex.com.br](https://www.fazcomex.com.br/siscomex/habilitar-empresa-portal-unico-siscomex/?utm_source=openai)) *(Note: public sources accessed do not specify a new 2026‑only numeric limit on individual user logins or maximum concurrent accesses per company; the main “limits” identified are the long‑standing financial thresholds for RADAR modalities and the new data‑access/validation rules.)* **New digitalization measures for customs processes (2026)** - The Ministry of Finance’s **2026–2027 Digital Transformation Plan** includes a large set of Siscomex‑related services to be moved to **full digital access by 31 March 2026**, covering: - Habilitation and review of estimates (RADAR) - Requests tied to **Recof** special regime (inward‑processing) - Online simulators for tax/administrative treatment of imports - Digital management of **access authorization to customs areas**, and several Mantra air‑cargo functionalities. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/governodigital/pt-br/estrategias-e-governanca-digital/planos-de-transformacao-digital/ptds-vigentes/mf_ptd_2026_2027_anexo_de_entregas_2_mf_rfb_assinado_assinado_assinado_assinado.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - A recently published **decree (Decreto 12.958/2026)** codifies that import, export, and transit operations are to be processed via **electronic documents**, allows **digitalization of supporting documents**, and promotes **secure electronic information exchange between customs administrations**, directly reinforcing paperless trade. ([planalto.gov.br](https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2026/decreto/d12958.htm?utm_source=openai)) - Monthly Siscomex statistics for January 2026 show that all import licenses (LIs/LPCOs) are recorded and tracked electronically, confirming near‑complete **digital coverage of licensing processes**. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/siscomex/pt-br/informacoes/importacaoo/Publicaomensal_Janeiro_2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **DUIMP and “Novo Processo de Importação” (NPI)** - In 2026, Brazil is further rolling out **DUIMP 2026** (Declaração Única de Importação) as the core document of the **New Import Process**, integrated with Portal Único: - Objective: **reduce clearance times, increase automation**, and integrate data from importers, customs brokers, carriers, and multiple agencies. - Benefits highlighted by trade advisors: lower operational costs, **“smart customs”** risk analysis, and better interoperability via APIs. ([gx.capital](https://gx.capital/duimp-2026-e-portal-unico-siscomex?utm_source=openai)) **Tax and AEO/OEA‑related regulatory updates** - **Siscomex Utilization Fee (TUS) in 2026** is cited at **R$214.50 per DI/DUIMP**, plus **R$71.50 per additional item** on the same declaration – a direct cost item for importers. ([guelcos.com.br](https://guelcos.com.br/conteudo/importacao/siscomex/?utm_source=openai)) - The Brazilian Federal Revenue Service issued **Normative Instruction RFB No. 2,318/2026** (March 26, 2026), which: - Restructures the **AEO‑Compliance (OEA‑C)** modality into **three progressive compliance/governance levels**. - Emphasizes greater automation in verification and, generally, **no requirement for on‑site validation visits** at the introductory level—making entry into the program easier for intermediaries and regular exporters. ([trenchrossi.com](https://www.trenchrossi.com/en/legal-alerts/brazilian-federal-revenue-service-issues-new-rules-applicable-to-the-authorized-economic-operator-aeo-program-in-brief/?utm_source=openai)) - Broader **tax reform guidance for 2026** from Receita Federal highlights ongoing implementation steps for Brazil’s new consumption‑tax regime; while not Siscomex‑specific, it will interact with customs tax calculation and collection processes over the next few years. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/receitafederal/pt-br/acesso-a-informacao/acoes-e-programas/programas-e-atividades/reforma-consumo/orientacoes-2026?utm_source=openai)) **Compliance implications for importers/exporters (2026)** - **Higher reliance on digital systems and APIs**: - Firms increasingly need **IT integration** with Portal Único APIs and must manage access keys, user permissions, and data security internally. ([docs.portalunico.siscomex.gov.br](https://docs.portalunico.siscomex.gov.br/pages/chaves-acesso/?utm_source=openai)) - **More granular risk management and AEO incentives**: - New AEO rules reward **strong internal controls, traceability, and trade‑compliance governance** with faster clearance and fewer inspections. ([trenchrossi.com](https://www.trenchrossi.com/en/legal-alerts/brazilian-federal-revenue-service-issues-new-rules-applicable-to-the-authorized-economic-operator-aeo-program-in-brief/?utm_source=openai)) - **Cost and throughput impacts**: - TUS fee levels and the progressive rollout of DUIMP and NPI make **batching and product‑line consolidation** more relevant to cost control. ([guelcos.com.br](https://www.guelcos.com.br/conteudo/importacao/siscomex/?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Market Events / Policy & Siscomex** ([docs.portalunico.siscomex.gov.br](https://docs.portalunico.siscomex.gov.br/pages/chaves-acesso/?utm_source=openai)) === 3. DEMAND SIGNALS – 2026 FREIGHT MARKET, BRAZIL EXPORT CONTAINERS & RATES (SOUTH AMERICA–ASIA/EUROPE), SANTOS === **Santos and Brazil export container volumes (2025 actual, 2026 YTD)** - The **Port of Santos** handled a **record 5.9 million TEU in 2025**, up from 5.485 million TEU in 2024 (**+7.7% YoY**). Exports accounted for **33.52 million tons**, and imports 28.77 million tons of containerized cargo. ([portodesantos.com.br](https://www.portodesantos.com.br/2026/01/15/porto-de-santos-confirma-recorde-anual-e-fecha-2025-com-1864-milhoes-de-toneladas-movimentadas/?utm_source=openai)) - Santos’ share of Brazil’s foreign trade (by FOB value) reached **29.6% in 2025** and stays around **29.5% in early 2026**, underscoring its dominance as Brazil’s main container gateway. ([portodesantos.com.br](https://www.portodesantos.com.br/2026/01/15/porto-de-santos-confirma-recorde-anual-e-fecha-2025-com-1864-milhoes-de-toneladas-movimentadas/?utm_source=openai)) - In **January 2026**, Santos handled a **record 12.7 million tons** total cargo, with container throughput also at a historic high for the month. ([brazilstockguide.com](https://brazilstockguide.com/insights/santos-port-record-january-cargo-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - For **Q1 2026**, Santos processed **1.4 million TEU**, a **3.6% increase YoY** versus Q1 2025. ([container-mag.com](https://container-mag.com/update/port-of-santos-handles-record-1-4m-teu-in-q1-as-cargo-volume-modalt0g?utm_source=openai)) - Digital datasets on port performance show that in a recent month (April, year not explicitly specified but data are current), Santos handled around **164,000 TEU of exports and 139,000 TEU of imports** on **~188 vessel calls**, providing an indicative monthly baseline. ([econdb.com](https://www.econdb.com/maritime/ports/BR%20SSZ/Santos/?utm_source=openai)) **Commodity‑specific export flows via Santos** - In 2025, Santos exports were led by: - **Soybeans – 44.9 million tons** - **Sugar – 24.1 million tons** - **Corn – 15.2 million tons** - **Pulp – 9.8 million tons** ([datamarnews.com](https://datamarnews.com/noticias/brazils-port-of-santos-posts-record-cargo-volumes-in-2025/?utm_source=openai)) --- #### Capacity, congestion, and reliability (Santos 2024–2026) - A leading Santos terminal operator reports that surging **chemical and agricultural cargo** has pushed container volumes to records and required **acceleration of a 5‑year expansion plan**. ([icis.com](https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/04/16/11198606/port-operator-santos-brasil-speeds-up-expansion-as-chemicals-agro-cargo-pushes-volumes-up-exec?utm_source=openai)) - Operational strain: data presented by the operator show: - **Deep‑sea service delays/omissions at Santos reached ~71% in 2024**, improving to about **60% in early 2026**—still a high level of **schedule unreliability**. ([icis.com](https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/04/16/11198606/port-operator-santos-brasil-speeds-up-expansion-as-chemicals-agro-cargo-pushes-volumes-up-exec?utm_source=openai)) - Real‑time congestion platforms show **ongoing but manageable congestion** at Santos in late April–early May 2026, with measurable vessel waiting times but not at crisis 2021‑style levels. ([portcast.io](https://www.portcast.io/port-congestion/santos?utm_source=openai)) **Blank sailings and capacity to Asia/Europe** - Marine analytics platforms tracking Santos show: - Regular **long‑haul services linking Santos to Asia and Europe**, with a non‑trivial number of **blank sailings and vessel omissions** contributing to the 60% unreliability figure. ([icis.com](https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/04/16/11198606/port-operator-santos-brasil-speeds-up-expansion-as-chemicals-agro-cargo-pushes-volumes-up-exec?utm_source=openai)) - Brazil’s port and PPP program pipeline includes **new container terminal projects at Santos** (concessions launched in late 2025, operations from 2026 onward), aimed at increasing capacity by tens of thousands of TEU per month and alleviating mid‑term constraints. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/portos-e-aeroportos/pt-br/assuntos/arquivo/concessao_fichas_portos_e_hidrovias_atualizacao_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) --- #### Freight rate trends – South America (East Coast) to Asia & Europe, 2026 Direct lane‑specific spot indices for **Brazil–Asia/Europe** are less widely published than Asia‑origin benchmarks, but multiple sources allow inference: - The **Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)** includes **South America East Coast** as a component (5% weighting). In early 2026: - Composite SCFI has risen roughly **~28% from early 2025 to March 2026**, driven mainly by Middle East and some Asia–Europe lanes, with **South America East Coast included in the overall upward movement** though not the primary driver. ([scbeic.com](https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/file/product/10057/hhos8zastn/Outlook-1Q26-FullReport-EN-20260417.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Research notes (NYK, Freightos summaries) indicate: - **Asia–Europe** spot rates rose by a few hundred USD/FEU at times in Q1 2026 but mostly **returned to near pre‑spike levels** by April. ([scbeic.com](https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/file/product/10057/hhos8zastn/Outlook-1Q26-FullReport-EN-20260417.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Asia–North America** rates have remained elevated relative to 2024 (+~US$1,000/FEU on some lanes), pulling some global capacity and indirectly tightening space on **Asia–South America** rotations that share vessel strings. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1tb7l24/freightos_weekly_update_may_12_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - For **South America East Coast–Asia/Europe** specifically, trade press and shipping‑line advisories (not all publicly index‑based) suggest: - Spot levels on **ECSA–Asia** in early 2026 are **modestly above 2024 averages**, with **low‑double‑digit percentage increases (on the order of 10–20% YoY)**, reflecting: - Increased demand for Brazil‑origin agriproducts in Asia - Higher bunker and war‑risk costs routed through or around conflict zones impacting global vessel deployment - Ongoing schedule unreliability at Santos and regional ports. ([icis.com](https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/04/16/11198606/port-operator-santos-brasil-speeds-up-expansion-as-chemicals-agro-cargo-pushes-volumes-up-exec?utm_source=openai)) - **ECSA–Europe** rates are relatively **softer**, tracking the broader Asia–Europe correction; year‑on‑year, they appear **flat to slightly up (single‑digit %)**, as extra capacity has entered European trades while Latin American imports into Europe have grown more modestly. ([ppp.worldbank.org](https://ppp.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2026-01/The%20Container%20Port%20Performance%20Index%202020%20to%202024%20-%20Trends%20and%20Lessons%20Learned.pdf?utm_source=openai)) *(Because few public indices quote Brazil‑origin spot rates directly, the percentage changes above are inferred from composite indices, carrier commentary, and the known linkages between vessel strings. They should be treated as indicative ranges rather than exact benchmarks.)* --- #### Demand signals from carriers, terminals, and cargo mix - The **Port of Santos Facts & Figures 2026** report underscores: - Continuous **growth in container volumes** from 2021 through 2025, with 2025 TEU up **~30% vs 2020**, signaling structurally stronger demand for containerized export flows, including refrigerated and bagged agriproducts. ([portodesantos.com.br](https://www.portodesantos.com.br/wp-content/uploads/Facts-Figures-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Santos Brasil’s expansion plans (new cranes, yard capacity, gate automation) are explicitly justified by: - **Higher agricultural and chemical export volumes**, and - Expectations of **continued volume growth beyond 2026**, especially on Asia‑linked services. ([icis.com](https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/04/16/11198606/port-operator-santos-brasil-speeds-up-expansion-as-chemicals-agro-cargo-pushes-volumes-up-exec?utm_source=openai)) - Government port‑project documents and PPP fiches show: - New **Santos container terminal concessions** designed to **add capacity and reduce bottlenecks** on Brazil’s main export gateway, which is expected to continue handling **~30% of national trade by value**. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/portos-e-aeroportos/pt-br/assuntos/arquivo/concessao_fichas_portos_e_hidrovias_atualizacao_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for Brazilian exporters (2026)** - **Space & scheduling**: - High but growing capacity means exporters can generally secure slots, but **60% schedule unreliability** implies: - Need for **wider shipment windows**, - Buffer stock at destination, and - Stronger coordination with carriers/forwarders. ([icis.com](https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/04/16/11198606/port-operator-santos-brasil-speeds-up-expansion-as-chemicals-agro-cargo-pushes-volumes-up-exec?utm_source=openai)) - **Cost expectations**: - **Santos–Asia**: expect **freight rates moderately above 2024 levels** (approx. 10–20% in many spot/FAK indications). - **Santos–Europe**: more benign, **flat to modestly higher rates**, but with periodic spikes during peak harvest export seasons. ([scbeic.com](https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/file/product/10057/hhos8zastn/Outlook-1Q26-FullReport-EN-20260417.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Demand Signals / Freight & Ports** ([portodesantos.com.br](https://www.portodesantos.com.br/2026/01/15/porto-de-santos-confirma-recorde-anual-e-fecha-2025-com-1864-milhoes-de-toneladas-movimentadas/?utm_source=openai))