## Company Profile COMPAS LOJISTIK A.S — Istanbul‑based freight forwarder (contact: istanbul@compasslog.com). Public profile limited; company operates in Turkey as a freight forwarder/agent handling containerised, breakbulk and agri‑food shipments out of major Turkish gateways (Istanbul, Izmir, Mersin). Likely serves exporters of high‑value food ingredients (hazelnuts, olive oil, dried fruit, tomato paste) and industrial cargo on EU, Middle East and East Africa corridors. Scale and carrier relationships not publicly disclosed; positioned as a regional forwarder/agent able to manage feeder/shortsea and intermodal routings. ## Pain Points 1) Client exposure to 2026 hazelnut supply shock and price volatility — exporters and processors have 30–50% lower volumes but much higher unit prices; buyers are short‑covering and seeking origin diversification. COMPAS’s shippers need fast market intelligence, alternative buyer introductions and flexible sales/fulfilment options to monetize tight inventories without losing buyers. 2) Freight-rate and schedule unpredictability to Middle East/East Africa (Strait of Hormuz / Red Sea impact) — higher bunker/insurance costs and re‑routing increase transit time and freight cost uncertainty for time‑sensitive agri shipments; shippers need dynamic routing and short‑term capacity solutions. 3) Operational burden for smaller exporters — paperwork, customs compliance and finding qualified buyers abroad (especially non‑EU markets) create friction and lost sales; COMPAS must offer value beyond moving boxes (sales origination, buyer matching, managed fulfilment). ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] – TURKISH EXPORT FLOWS & CORRIDORS TO EU / MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA, 2026 === **1.1 Structural corridor / infrastructure developments (2026)** - **Istanbul North Rail Crossing (INRAIL)** - World Bank approved a **US$2 billion loan on 31 March 2026** for a 127‑km electrified high‑capacity rail line providing a **new overland rail crossing of the Bosphorus**. ([worldbank.org](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/03/31/world-bank-approves-2-billion-financing-to-strengthen-turkiye-rail-connectivity-across-the-istanbul-strait?utm_source=openai)) - Objective: relieve the current Istanbul/Bosphorus bottleneck that constrains **Türkiye–EU rail flows**, the **Trans‑Caspian / Middle Corridor**, and emerging **Iraq Development Road** connections. ([worldbank.org](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/03/31/world-bank-approves-2-billion-financing-to-strengthen-turkiye-rail-connectivity-across-the-istanbul-strait?utm_source=openai)) - While commissioning is several years out, 2026 is important from a **policy and investment signal** standpoint: it confirms long‑term intent to push more **rail‑based transit volumes** between EU–Turkey–Caucasus–Central Asia and Middle East. - **Middle Corridor & overland Eurasia routing (context through 2025–26)** - The Trans‑Caspian / Middle Corridor capacity was estimated around **6 million tons per year in 2024**, vs >100 million tons for the northern (Russia) route, underlining room for significant growth if infrastructure and border processes improve. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/Syria/comments/1m6w822?utm_source=openai)) - Continued interest from Turkey, EU, and US in **diversifying away from Russian‑controlled routes** supports incremental growth of **east–west rail and intermodal flows through Turkey** in 2025–26. **Implication for 2026 trade flows:** 2026 does not yet bring massive new physical capacity online, but the INRAIL decision plus ongoing Middle‑Corridor investments reinforce Turkey’s positioning as a **land bridge** for EU–Caucasus–Central Asia–China flows and a **north–south pivot** to Iraq and the Gulf. For agri‑food shippers, this encourages more **intermodal (rail+truck) routings** for EU and Middle East traffic over the medium term, potentially reducing reliance on congested straits/ports. --- **1.2 Route / congestion dynamics for Turkish exports (EU, Middle East, Africa)** Very recent, Turkey‑specific corridor congestion data is thin; most 2026 logistics commentary is **theatre‑wide** (Mediterranean, Red Sea, Hormuz). Key inferences: - **Mediterranean & EU gateways (affecting Turkey–EU trade)** - Freightos weekly updates in early and late April 2026 show **Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean rates** around **US$2,668/FEU to North Europe and US$3,527/FEU to the Mediterranean** as of late April – only **8% and –3% vs pre‑Iran war levels**, respectively. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - This suggests **no systemic congestion** at main EU–Med hubs (Piraeus, Valencia, Genoa, etc.) despite broader geopolitical disruptions; carriers instead manage capacity via **blanked sailings** and modest GRIs. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - **Strait of Hormuz / Gulf access – impact on Turkey–Middle East / East Africa** - As of April 2026, closure / partial closure of the **Strait of Hormuz** has raised bunker costs and kept container rates elevated vs a normal low‑season but **well below prior disruption spikes** (e.g., Red Sea crisis). ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - For Turkish exports to **Gulf states and East Africa**, this translates more into **freight rate uplift** than complete route loss: vessels re‑route or factor in longer steaming/fuel costs. - **Red Sea and Suez disruption context (late 2025–2026)** - Industry commentary through January–April 2026 indicates carriers **testing limited return to the Red Sea** while a share of Asia–Europe flows remain diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1qby5r8/freightos_weekly_update_january_13_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - For Turkey–EU flows, impact is indirect (via feeder/mainline scheduling and transshipment hubs). For Turkey–East Africa/Red Sea, the key effect is on **transshipment options and schedule reliability** rather than pure port congestion. - **Black Sea / Bosphorus** - 2026 debates on Turkey’s proposed **Istanbul Canal** continue, highlighting long‑term ambitions to monetise or re‑route Black Sea traffic, but **Montreux Convention still governs the free passage of merchant shipping through the Bosphorus**; any canal project is long‑dated and has **no immediate 2026 trade impact** beyond expectations. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/EU_Economics/comments/1tbqejh/turkey_wants_to_build_a_new_canal_next_to_the/?utm_source=openai)) **Implication for corridors in 2026:** - **EU:** Overland (truck/rail via Bulgaria/Greece) and shortsea Ro‑Ro/container corridors remain **functionally open**; no evidence of 2026‑specific systemic port congestion affecting Turkish exports at scale. - **Middle East / Africa:** Elevated fuel costs and diversion‑driven schedule changes increase **transit times and freight rates**, but corridors remain operational. Exporters of time‑sensitive perishables or low‑margin bulk may feel the squeeze most; higher‑value agri‑food (nuts, processed foods, ingredients) can usually absorb some freight inflation. *Data gaps:* Within the last 90 days there are few public, granular statistics specifically on **Turkish export volumes by mode/route in 2026**; most trade numbers are still on a 2025 basis, and rail‑service announcements tend to be project‑level rather than lane‑specific metrics. **Sources (Market Events):** ([worldbank.org](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/03/31/world-bank-approves-2-billion-financing-to-strengthen-turkiye-rail-connectivity-across-the-istanbul-strait?utm_source=openai)) --- === 2. [COMMODITY TRENDS] – TURKISH HAZELNUT EXPORTS, 2026 OUTLOOK === **2.1 Current export performance & volumes (2025/26 season and early 2026)** - **Share of global market:** - Recent academic and industry analyses continue to place Turkey at around **63–70% of global hazelnut exports** (kernel basis), underscoring its dominant price‑setting role. ([agrifoodscience.com](https://www.agrifoodscience.com/index.php/TURJAF/article/download/8255/3977/77722?utm_source=openai)) - **2024/25 baseline:** - International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) reports **2024/25 Turkish hazelnut exports at ~309,000 MT (kernel basis)**, roughly flat vs the prior season. ([inc.nutfruit.org](https://inc.nutfruit.org/hazelnut-crop-update-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) - **Shock to 2025 crop and early 2026 exports:** - PGIM’s 2026 agriculture market update notes **Turkey’s 2025 hazelnut crop down ~20–22%** due to severe spring frost, with global supply “projected to remain constrained through 2025 and into 2026.” ([pgim.com](https://www.pgim.com/content/dam/pgim/us/en/pgim-real-estate/active/documents/reports/PGIM-2026-Agriculture-and-Timber-Market-Update.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - A January 2026 report from Arslantürk indicates for the 2025/26 season: - Opening export prices (Aug 15, 2025) for **11–13 mm natural kernels** around **US$12,700/ton (≈€10,310/t)**. ([arslanturk.com.tr](https://www.arslanturk.com.tr/2026-january-hazelnut-market-report/?utm_source=openai)) - Total available stock (production + carry in) projected at **570,000–620,000 tons in‑shell**, with a **carryover to 2026 harvest of 50,000–80,000 tons**, implying a relatively tight but not depleted supply balance. ([arslanturk.com.tr](https://www.arslanturk.com.tr/2026-january-hazelnut-market-report/?utm_source=openai)) - **Early 2026 export volumes & values:** - Türkiye Today (economy desk) reports that in the **first four months of 2026**, hazelnut export **volume fell 31% y/y to 71,315 tons**, while **export revenue rose 17% to US$990.9 million**, driven by much higher unit prices (average **US$13.9/kg vs US$8.19/kg** a year earlier). ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-hazelnut-exports-plunge-31-in-2026-as-bad-weather-affects-harvest-3219768?utm_source=openai)) - Commodity‑Board and other trade press similarly cite **~31–50% lower Turkish export volumes** in early 2026 depending on the comparison window and data source; several note that seasonal exports of roughly **105,000 MT Sep–Mar vs ~206,000 MT a year earlier** represent about a **50% decline**. ([heliosingredients.com](https://heliosingredients.com/hazelnut-market-update-april-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Takeaway:** Turkey enters 2026 with **significantly reduced export volumes (–30% to –50% y/y)** but **much higher unit values**, reflecting frost‑reduced crops and elevated cost structure rather than collapse in demand. --- **2.2 Price levels and direction (2026 to date)** - **Origin prices (Turkey):** - Arslantürk (Jan 2026) shows 2025 crop 11–13 mm kernels initially at **US$12,700/t**, a substantial increase vs typical pre‑frost norms. ([arslanturk.com.tr](https://www.arslanturk.com.tr/2026-january-hazelnut-market-report/?utm_source=openai)) - An April 2026 Helios Ingredients update indicates **export prices roughly doubled vs prior season lows**, with Turkish export volumes down about **50% season‑to‑date**, keeping the market tight. ([heliosingredients.com](https://heliosingredients.com/hazelnut-market-update-april-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - A May 2026 Commodity‑Board report notes: - Main Turkish kernel offers (premium sizes) have **softened from peak levels** but remain historically high. - Smaller roasted fractions (2–4 mm, 0–2 mm) trade significantly cheaper at around **€7.9/kg and €6.9/kg** respectively, reflecting **discounts for non‑premium material**. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/power-shift-in-hazelnuts-turkish-market-stabilizes-after-historic-correction/?utm_source=openai)) - **Export unit values:** - The same Türkiye Today dataset (Jan–Apr 2026) implies an **export unit price jump of ~70%+ y/y** (US$13.9 vs 8.19/kg). ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-hazelnut-exports-plunge-31-in-2026-as-bad-weather-affects-harvest-3219768?utm_source=openai)) - **Outlook from institutional/industry sources:** - PGIM expects global hazelnut markets to remain **supply‑constrained through 2025 and into 2026** due to Turkey’s lower crop, but suggests prices are beginning to **align with long‑term averages** as supply/demand rebalance. ([pgim.com](https://www.pgim.com/content/dam/pgim/us/en/pgim-real-estate/active/documents/reports/PGIM-2026-Agriculture-and-Timber-Market-Update.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Commodity‑Board’s latest (May 2026) view: market is **“easing but not collapsing”**; prices have corrected from extremes but sit near or slightly above what many expect Ankara’s next **TMO intervention price** might be, creating **upside risk** if a farmer‑friendly minimum is set. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/power-shift-in-hazelnuts-turkish-market-stabilizes-after-historic-correction/?utm_source=openai)) **Takeaway:** 2026 shows **very high but slightly softening** Turkish hazelnut prices, with spot indications of some correction from early‑season peaks but **unit values still 50–70% above** prior‑year levels depending on product grade. --- **2.3 Demand, usage, and buyer behaviour** - **Confectionery & spreads demand:** - Trade sources highlight that the combination of **record hazelnut and cocoa prices** over the last season has forced confectioners to **ration usage**, reformulate, or adopt more flexible nut blends to manage margins. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/power-shift-in-hazelnuts-turkish-market-stabilizes-after-historic-correction/?utm_source=openai)) - Current (2026) demand is described as **“solid but cautious”**: buyers are less inclined to over‑stock and focus more on **just‑in‑time purchasing** with attention to price dips. - **Origin diversification / alternative suppliers:** - Georgia: recent 2026 data show a **structural shift toward higher‑value shelled exports** with an implied average export price rising from about **€7.3/kg (March 2025) to €10.1/kg (March 2026)**; volumes slightly eased, but Georgia is capturing a **premium kernel niche**. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/hazelnuts-georgias-value-shift-meets-softer-turkish-prices/?utm_source=openai)) - Trade commentary repeatedly advises buyers to **“focus on origin diversification”** and leverage competition between **Turkey, Georgia, Italy, Azerbaijan, Chile, USA** and other emerging suppliers. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/power-shift-in-hazelnuts-turkish-market-stabilizes-after-historic-correction/?utm_source=openai)) - Russia: specialized analyses note declining Turkish hazelnut exports to Russia (from 3,700 MT in 2023/24 to 2,800 MT in 2024/25), pointing both to higher Turkish prices and Russian substitution or reduced demand; this is niche but shows **trade flow adjustments** even within key regional markets. ([cropgpt.ai](https://cropgpt.ai/turkey-hazelnuts-2026-pricing-dynamics-and-export-flow-adjustments?utm_source=openai)) - **Buyer strategies in 2026:** - Large EU confectioners and ingredient buyers appear to be: - **Short‑covering** selectively rather than locking very long. - Increasing trials with **Georgian and other non‑Turkish kernels** especially where flavour profile differences are manageable. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/hazelnuts-georgias-value-shift-meets-softer-turkish-prices/?utm_source=openai)) - Paying attention to **TMO policy** and Turkey’s 2026 crop prospects before committing to substantial forward coverage. --- **2.4 Forecast and risk factors for 2026–27** - **Supply side:** - Several forecasts (ARIMA‑based academic work using 1961–2023 data) project **gradual increases in Turkey’s hazelnut export quantities through 2026** under “normal” conditions, but these projections **pre‑date the full impact of 2025 frost/drought**, so actual 2026 outcomes are likely **below modelled volumes**. ([dergipark.org.tr](https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/4562501?utm_source=openai)) - Stock estimates (570–620k tons in‑shell with 50–80k carryover) suggest that barring another major weather shock, **2026/27 supply could normalize**, though investment in orchard productivity and pest control remains crucial. ([arslanturk.com.tr](https://www.arslanturk.com.tr/2026-january-hazelnut-market-report/?utm_source=openai)) - **Demand & substitution risk:** - If cocoa prices remain high while hazelnut prices stay elevated, confectionery manufacturers may further: - Shift into **cheaper nut blends** (e.g., more peanuts/almonds, fewer hazelnuts). - Reduce nut content per unit or downsize SKUs. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/power-shift-in-hazelnuts-turkish-market-stabilizes-after-historic-correction/?utm_source=openai)) - **Policy / TMO interventions:** - A farmer‑supportive **TMO minimum price in 2026** could effectively **set a high floor** under Turkish raw material costs, slowing price normalization and encouraging some **permanent origin diversification** among buyers. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/power-shift-in-hazelnuts-turkish-market-stabilizes-after-historic-correction/?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for 2026 buying strategy:** - Expect **continued tightness but decreasing panic**: prices may hover at elevated levels with bouts of volatility around TMO announcements and crop news. - Forward buyers should **scenario‑plan** around: - A neutral/benign 2026 crop allowing modest price easing; vs - Another weather event + high TMO floor, which would **lock in structurally higher Turkish offers** and accelerate **shift to alternative origins**. **Sources (Commodity Trends – Hazelnuts):** ([inc.nutfruit.org](https://inc.nutfruit.org/hazelnut-crop-update-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) --- === 3. [DEMAND SIGNALS] – MED / BLACK SEA FREIGHT CAPACITY & TURKEY–EU CONTAINER RATES, 2026 (Q1–Q2) === **3.1 Overall container market environment in early 2026** - **Global context:** - Freightos’ weekly updates (Jan and Apr 2026) describe a **low‑demand but high‑capacity environment**, with carriers using **blanked sailings and selective GRIs** to support rates. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1qby5r8/freightos_weekly_update_january_13_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Rate levels are impacted by: - **Higher fuel costs** following the closure or partial closure of the **Strait of Hormuz**. - Earlier disruptions in the **Red Sea / Iran war** context, though by April 2026 rates are **well below earlier spike levels**. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - **Asia–Europe benchmark (for context on Med capacity):** - Mid‑January 2026: Asia–Europe rates roughly **US$3,000/FEU to North Europe** and **US$4,850/FEU to the Mediterranean**. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1qby5r8/freightos_weekly_update_january_13_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Late April 2026: **US$2,668/FEU to Europe**, **US$3,527/FEU to Mediterranean**, about **8% and –3% vs pre‑war levels**, respectively. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) **Takeaway:** The **Med and Black Sea basin** in early 2026 operates with **ample vessel capacity but elevated operating costs**, keeping rates somewhat higher than low‑demand norms, yet far from crisis peaks. --- **3.2 Turkey–Europe container rate trends & capacity (Q1–Q2 2026)** There are no public, Turkey‑only spot indexes equivalent to FBX in the last 90 days, but Turkey–EU lanes typically **track Mediterranean and intra‑Europe benchmarks** with a differential for shorter distance and feeder usage. Based on available market signals: - **Spot rate levels (inferred):** - With Asia–Med mainline at **US$3,527/FEU (late April)** and Asia–EU at **US$2,668/FEU**, Turkey–EU shortsea and feeder rates for **40’ dry boxes** are likely in the **low‑to‑mid four‑figure range per FEU** depending on direction, service, and port pair (e.g., TR–Italy/Spain/Greece vs TR–North Europe via transshipment). - Given Turkey’s proximity and strong underlying volumes (auto parts, white goods, textiles, agri‑food), carriers tend to compete aggressively on these lanes, but **higher bunker and insurance costs** from regional conflict still exert upward pressure. - **Blank sailings & schedule reliability:** - Freightos notes that by late April **carriers have started to announce more blanked sailings** on Asia–Europe as demand remains weak and some GRIs are cancelled (e.g., a cancelled Maersk GRI). ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - For Turkey–EU, this manifests less as capacity withdrawal and more as: - **Feeder frequency adjustments** (e.g., combining loops, cutting marginal calls). - **Extended transit times / more transshipment** when mainlines shift rotations around congested or risky areas. - **Feeder and shortsea capacity (Med / Black Sea including Turkey):** - The structural picture remains one of **high nominal capacity**, with multiple global and regional carriers offering: - **Black Sea–Mediterranean feeders** (connecting ports like Istanbul, Izmit, Gemlik, Mersin, Izmir with Piraeus, Gioia Tauro, Algeciras, etc.). - **Intra‑Med and Adriatic services** feeding into North Europe rail/road networks. - No evidence in Q1–Q2 2026 sources of **systemic capacity shortages specific to Turkey**, beyond normal seasonality and the adjustments linked to Red Sea / Hormuz disruptions. **Implication for Turkish exporters to EU:** - Expect **reasonable space availability** but **less predictable schedules** and **rate floors higher than 2023 lows**. - For higher‑value agri‑food (hazelnuts, processed foods), the cost share of ocean freight in delivered value remains manageable, though margin‑sensitive bulk and low‑value products face more pressure. --- **3.3 Breakbulk / bulk and Black Sea agricultural flows** - While 2026‑specific, Turkey‑focused breakbulk statistics are sparse, regional discussions (including on Ukraine/Russia export rerouting) suggest: - A shift of some **grain and bulk flows to EU rail and overland routes** to avoid Black Sea conflict zones, particularly for Ukrainian exports. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/EU_Economics/comments/1tbqejh/turkey_wants_to_build_a_new_canal_next_to_the/?utm_source=openai)) - This can **tighten rail capacity** and raise **wagon/locomotive and port‑handling demand** at alternative EU and Turkish gateways, but does not appear to have generated widespread 2026 bottlenecks yet. - For Turkish hazelnut exports, which often move in containers or palletised breakbulk through Black Sea and Marmara ports, **port operating conditions in 2026 are reported as generally stable**, with **no major congestion headlines** in the last 90 days. --- **3.4 Key demand signals for Q2 2026 planning** - **Carriers’ behaviour:** Cancellation of some GRIs and growing blank sailings on Asia–Europe, despite elevated bunker costs, signal **lacklustre underlying demand** and **excess capacity**, which is generally positive for shippers seeking space. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - **Rates vs costs:** Even with Hormuz‑related fuel surcharges, April 2026 rates are **far below prior disruption peaks**, indicating that carriers are unable to fully pass through higher costs due to competition and over‑capacity. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - **Risk profile:** Main residual risks for Turkey–EU agri‑food shippers in 2026: - **Sudden escalation** in regional conflict affecting Red Sea / Eastern Med. - **Policy‑driven changes in Turkish straits regulation or tolling** (e.g., around a future Istanbul Canal), though nothing imminent is in force. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/EU_Economics/comments/1tbqejh/turkey_wants_to_build_a_new_canal_next_to_the/?utm_source=openai)) **Operational recommendations (inferred):** - Lock in **short‑term capacity agreements (3–6 months)** rather than very long commitments, given the tug‑of‑war between elevated costs and weak demand. - Where possible, maintain **port flexibility** (e.g., alternative Turkish load ports, alternative EU discharge ports) to exploit arbitrage between feeder networks and avoid localized congestion. - For high‑margin, time‑sensitive hazelnut contracts, consider **early‑season forward bookings** when rates dip, but avoid over‑committing volume until TMO price and 2026 crop clarity improve. **Sources (Demand Signals – Freight):** ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1qby5r8/freightos_weekly_update_january_13_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai))