## Company Profile NORTHERN FREIGHT INTERNATIONAL AGENCY COMPANY LIMITED — (from VOSA Group website linkage) Appears to be a Vietnamese freight forwarding and logistics services provider operating under the VOSA brand. Public profile indicates international freight forwarding (sea and air), customs clearance, and agency services for exporters and importers out of Vietnam’s main ports. Leadership contact: Than Trong Thao, Director. Scale: not publicly disclosed; likely a regional/mid‑market forwarder serving Vietnam exporters (including agro/seafood) to major markets (EU, US, China) via Vietnamese gateway ports (Hai Phong, Cai Mep–Thi Vai, Ho Chi Minh/ Cat Lai). Website: https://vosa.com.vn ## Pain Points 1) Booking & schedule unreliability on Asia–Europe/Med lanes (ongoing Red Sea diversions & blank sailings) — causes longer transit times, increased demurrage/delay risk and forces earlier bookings for Northern Freight’s exporters (especially reefers). 2) Rising compliance & documentation burden for seafood exporters (ASC/BAP, IUU, forced‑labour scrutiny, digital traceability) — increases rejections/detentions and slows clearance for clients that lack compliance‑ready documentation. 3) Freight cost & margin pressure for commodity seafood (shrimp/pangasius) — higher Asia–Europe freight and security surcharges make low‑margin, high‑volume cargo less profitable and push clients to seek value‑added buyers or alternative routes. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. COMMODITY TRENDS – VIETNAM SEAFOOD (SHRIMP & PANGASIUS) EXPORTS & DEMAND OUTLOOK TO 2026 === **1.1 Current performance baseline (latest available, mostly 2024–2025)** - Vietnam’s total seafood export value in 2025 is estimated around **USD 11.3–11.4 billion**, up about **13% YoY** versus 2024, driven mainly by shrimp and pangasius (VASEP/Vietfish).([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) - Several sources still cite a slightly lower official forecast band of **USD 9–9.2 billion** for 2025 (shrimp USD 3.6–3.8bn, pangasius ~USD 1.8bn, tuna ~USD 0.85–0.9bn, others ~USD 3bn), which appears to be an earlier, more conservative forecast that has been revised upward by industry analysts.([en.vietnamplus.vn](https://en.vietnamplus.vn/aquatic-exports-stay-flexible-amid-rising-challenges-post324102.vnp?utm_source=openai)) - Within that export basket: - **Shrimp** exports in 2025 are widely projected at **~USD 4.6 billion**, accounting for **~40% of Vietnam’s seafood export value** and setting a new record if realized.([vietnam.incorp.asia](https://vietnam.incorp.asia/vietnam-seafood-export-market-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) - **Pangasius (tra/catfish)** exports reached about **USD 2.2 billion in 2025**, with VASEP data showing 9M 2024 pangasius export value already up **6% YoY**, and US-bound pangasius up **~35% YoY in Q3 2024**.([vietcap.com.vn](https://www.vietcap.com.vn/api/cms-api/uploads/file/202412/FisherySectorUpdate-20241204.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **1.2 2026 export value outlook – shrimp & pangasius** - **Shrimp** - Most near-term projections cluster around **low‑ to mid‑single‑digit growth** in 2026 versus 2025, with upside capped by demand uncertainty in the US/EU and rising environmental/traceability barriers. No single official 2026 shrimp dollar figure is universally cited, but using 2025’s ~USD 4.6bn base and industry commentary, a **2026 range of roughly USD 4.7–4.9bn (+2–6% YoY)** is consistent with current forecasts.([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Pangasius** - VASEP projections from the 2025 pangasius industry review conference: **pangasius export revenue nearly USD 2.2bn in 2025**, rising to **USD 2.3bn in 2026 (+~5% YoY)**, assuming continued demand recovery in the US, China and some emerging markets.([vietnam.vn](https://www.vietnam.vn/en/xuat-khau-ca-tra-du-bao-dat-gan-2-2-ty-usd-nam-2025-va-tang-len-2-3-ty-usd-nam-2026?utm_source=openai)) **1.3 Volume / production dynamics** - Vietnam’s **aquaculture output** is expected to rise **~2.2%** in 2026 to around **6.25 million tonnes**, while capture fisheries output is forecast to fall **~2.1% to ~3.75 million tonnes**, reflecting resource constraints and regulatory tightening.([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) - Overall fish production previously reached **~6.96 million tonnes (+2.7% YoY)**, underlining the growing dominance of aquaculture (including shrimp and pangasius) in total supply.([vietnam.incorp.asia](https://vietnam.incorp.asia/vietnam-seafood-export-market-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) **1.4 Market & demand outlook 2026 – key destinations** - **United States** - Demand for both shrimp and pangasius has been recovering as US retailers and foodservice re‑stock after destocking cycles in 2023–2024; for pangasius, US imports from Vietnam rose sharply (US-bound pangasius +35% YoY in Q3 2024).([vietcap.com.vn](https://www.vietcap.com.vn/api/cms-api/uploads/file/202412/FisherySectorUpdate-20241204.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - However, 2026 outlook is clouded by potential **new environmental, forced‑labor, and traceability restrictions** on imported seafood. US policy moves (e.g., stricter enforcement of IUU rules, forced labor bans) are flagged as key risks that may re‑shape Vietnam’s product/market mix and require more investment in certification (ASC/BAP), digital traceability, and ESG reporting.([vietnam-briefing.com](https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnams-seafood-exports-growth-drivers-market-shifts-and-2026-outlook.html/?utm_source=openai)) - **European Union** - Vietnam continues to benefit from the **EVFTA** tariff schedule but faces **stringent sustainability and deforestation‑/IUU‑linked regulations**. Analysts highlight 2026 as a year when EU Green Deal‑related measures (including Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence and broader ESG reporting) increasingly influence procurement, favoring certified shrimp and pangasius and penalizing non‑compliant operators.([vietnam-briefing.com](https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnams-seafood-exports-growth-drivers-market-shifts-and-2026-outlook.html/?utm_source=openai)) - **China & intra‑Asia** - China remains a major buyer of Vietnamese pangasius and a price‑sensitive buyer of shrimp. Demand recovery is described as **gradual and uneven**, with 2026 growth likely moderate rather than explosive, constrained by slower Chinese consumer spending and competition from domestic production and other low‑cost suppliers (India, Ecuador for shrimp; other whitefish origins for pangasius).([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) **1.5 Price trends & competitiveness (shrimp vs competitors; pangasius vs whitefish)** - **Shrimp** - Vietnam remains **higher‑cost** than Ecuador and India in commodity shrimp due to more intensive farming, feed, and compliance costs. Analysts suggest Vietnam’s 2026 strategy is to **compete less on low‑end bulk and more on value‑added, certified, and processed shrimp**, particularly for Japan, EU, and North America, where price elasticity is lower for sustainably branded products.([agriculture.vn](https://agriculture.vn/vietnamese-shrimp-and-pangasius-choose-a-sustainable-path-in-global-competition-1190.html?utm_source=openai)) - Farm‑gate and export prices are expected to stay under pressure in 2026 if Ecuador maintains high output and if global consumer demand remains soft, but **premium‑segment prices (value‑added, organic, ASC/BAP) should be more resilient**, allowing Vietnam to protect margins in those niches.([agriculture.vn](https://agriculture.vn/vietnamese-shrimp-and-pangasius-choose-a-sustainable-path-in-global-competition-1190.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Pangasius** - Pangasius remains **cost‑competitive against other whitefish** (tilapia, Alaska pollock, cod) in mass‑market retail and foodservice. VASEP notes that rising feed and environmental compliance costs could put upward pressure on production costs, but demand in price‑sensitive markets (China, Middle East, Latin America) is expected to support **modest price increases alongside the projected 5% export value growth to USD 2.3bn in 2026**.([vietnam.vn](https://www.vietnam.vn/en/xuat-khau-ca-tra-du-bao-dat-gan-2-2-ty-usd-nam-2025-va-tang-len-2-3-ty-usd-nam-2026?utm_source=openai)) **1.6 Structural & regulatory drivers shaping 2026 outlook** - **Sustainability & traceability**: Multiple reports emphasize a “**sustainable path**” pivot for Vietnamese shrimp and pangasius, with higher uptake of **ASC/BAP certification, antibiotic‑use control, and digital traceability systems** as prerequisites to retaining US/EU market access in 2026.([agriculture.vn](https://agriculture.vn/vietnamese-shrimp-and-pangasius-choose-a-sustainable-path-in-global-competition-1190.html?utm_source=openai)) - **US & EU non‑tariff barriers**: - Expected tighter enforcement of **IUU fishing rules**, labor standards, and environmental due diligence in 2025–2026 could result in **shipment delays, added documentation costs, and potential detentions**, especially for smaller, less‑compliant exporters.([vietnam-briefing.com](https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnams-seafood-exports-growth-drivers-market-shifts-and-2026-outlook.html/?utm_source=openai)) - **Domestic supply risks**: - Climate‑linked risks (drought, salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta), disease outbreaks, and farmer liquidity constraints are flagged as **upside risks to prices but downside risks to volume** in 2026, especially for shrimp.([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) **1.7 Overall 2026 demand outlook summary (shrimp & pangasius)** - **Shrimp**: - Base case: **low‑single‑digit export value growth (+2–6% YoY)** from a ~USD 4.6bn base; value growth driven more by product upgrading and mix (value‑added, certified) than by strong global volume growth. - Downside risks: weak US/EU consumption, stricter non‑tariff barriers, competition from Ecuador/India, and logistics costs if the Red Sea crisis persists.([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Pangasius**: - Base case: **export value rising to ~USD 2.3bn in 2026 (+~5% YoY)**, with continued volume and value expansion into the US, China, and other emerging markets, supported by price competitiveness versus whitefish alternatives.([vietnam.vn](https://www.vietnam.vn/en/xuat-khau-ca-tra-du-bao-dat-gan-2-2-ty-usd-nam-2025-va-tang-len-2-3-ty-usd-nam-2026?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Dimension 1:** ([vietnam.incorp.asia](https://vietnam.incorp.asia/vietnam-seafood-export-market-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) === 2. MARKET EVENTS – RED SEA SHIPPING SECURITY & IMPACT ON ASIA–EUROPE / ASIA–MEDITERRANEAN TRADE (2026) === **2.1 Security situation & timeline into 2026** - Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden began in late **2023** and have continued with varying intensity. By early 2024, more than **2,000 ships had diverted away from the Red Sea/Suez route**, adding significant distance and cost.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - The **timeline of the Red Sea crisis** shows cycles of escalation and partial pauses. In **late‑January 2025**, many US/UK‑linked vessels cautiously resumed transits after a partial halt in attacks, but the situation remained fragile.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - In **February 2026**, the Houthis publicly announced they would **resume attacks on Israel and commercial shipping** following airstrikes associated with the broader regional conflict, renewing security concerns and reinforcing carrier decisions to maintain diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) **2.2 Trade & routing impacts – Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean** - **Scale of rerouting** - During the height of the crisis, over **100 container ships** were rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, and by March 2024 **more than 2,000 ships** had diverted, extending voyages by **up to 6,000 nautical miles** and about **10–20 additional sailing days** depending on service and speed.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - UNCTAD and other analyses estimate that between November and December 2023, the attacks led to about a **1.3% decrease in global trade**, with **Asia–Europe lanes disproportionately affected**.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - **Asia–North Europe & Asia–Mediterranean lanes** - Container flows on Asia–Europe corridors have been **systematically redirected via the Cape of Good Hope**, increasing **transit times by roughly 10 days** on average, according to recent shipping analyses (including 2026 freight outlooks).([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/2026-freight-market-outlook?utm_source=openai)) - This rerouting has: - Reduced effective capacity on Asia–Northern Europe and Asia–Mediterranean lanes because more vessels are tied up on longer round‑trips. - Raised bunker fuel consumption and **CO₂ emissions per voyage by ~40%**, with some estimates suggesting that weekly Asia–North Europe services operating via the Cape experience up to a **67% increase in total CO₂ emissions**, due to extra vessels and higher speeds.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea?utm_source=openai)) - EU briefing notes from early 2026 highlight that **Asia–EU trade is still facing elevated transit times and transport costs**, with impacts spilling over to **Asia–Mediterranean** feeder and hub‑and‑spoke networks, especially through ports like Piraeus, Valencia, and Mediterranean transshipment hubs.([europarl.europa.eu](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2024/760390/EPRS_BRI%282024%29760390_EN.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **2.3 Freight rates and cost impacts** - **Initial shock (late 2023–early 2024)** - UNCTAD’s early analysis showed **spot container rates from Shanghai to Europe rising by ~256% on average** between December 2023 and February 2024 as carriers rerouted around the Cape. Other data indicate freight rate increases of **124–339%** on some Asia–Europe routes compared with pre‑crisis levels.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - **Into 2025–2026** - Although spot rates eased from peak spikes, S&P Global and other 2026 outlooks note that **Asia–Europe lanes entered 2026 on “seasonally firm” footing**, supported by pre‑Chinese New Year demand, capacity discipline (blank sailings), and continued Red Sea‑related diversions.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - Many carriers continue to **price in security premiums and longer voyage costs**; surcharges related to Red Sea diversions (war risk, insurance, emergency surcharges) remain embedded in contract and spot pricing into 2026, albeit at lower levels than early 2024 peaks.([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/2026-freight-market-outlook?utm_source=openai)) **2.4 Port congestion and equipment imbalances** - Empirical studies using congestion indices across 20 global ports (2016–2024 data) found that the **Red Sea rerouting shifted congestion patterns** rather than simply increasing average congestion: - Some **European hub ports** experienced **cargo surges and higher queuing** as rerouted ships bunched on arrival. - Other ports saw temporary drops in calls but faced **equipment shortages (empty container imbalances)**.([sciencedirect.com](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966692325003655?utm_source=openai)) - As of early 2026, the global port network has **adapted partially** but remains vulnerable: any renewed surge in diversions or further escalation can quickly amplify congestion and equipment imbalance, especially on Asia–Europe and Asia–Med corridors.([sciencedirect.com](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966692325003655?utm_source=openai)) **2.5 Strategic responses by carriers & shippers** - **Carriers** - Have adopted a combination of **Cape diversions, speed adjustments, additional vessel deployments, and blank sailings** to manage transit times and preserve rate levels.([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/2026-freight-market-outlook?utm_source=openai)) - Industry commentary expects that **even if security briefly improves, carriers may be slow to fully normalize Suez routings**, given risk of sudden attack resumption (as seen with the February 2026 announcements).([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - **Shippers (Asia–EU & Asia–Med)** - Are increasingly **re‑balancing routings** (e.g., via US East Coast or alternative intermodal corridors), **diversifying ports of discharge**, and building **more inventory** to buffer against 10–20‑day routing volatility. - For time‑sensitive cargoes (e.g., high‑value industrial goods, perishables), some shippers are selectively **shifting to air freight or sea‑air combinations** despite higher costs.([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/2026-freight-market-outlook?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Dimension 2:** ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) === 3. DEMAND SIGNALS – CONTAINER FREIGHT RATES 2026 (ASIA–EUROPE, ASIA–US) & CAPACITY / BLANK SAILINGS / PORT CONGESTION (WITH VIETNAM CONTEXT) === **3.1 2026 container freight rate environment – overall** - S&P Global’s **“2026 Ocean Freight Outlook”** describes a base case of **“softer rates ahead, but continued volatility”** across main east–west trades: - Structural overcapacity from vessel deliveries exerts **downward pressure** on rates. - Counter‑forces include **Red Sea diversions, targeted blank sailings, environmental compliance costs (ETS, fuel), and geopolitics**, which keep effective capacity tight and volatility high.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **3.2 Asia–Europe rates & demand signals (2026)** - S&P’s **Containers Quarterly** for Asia–Europe reports that the market **entered 2026 with “seasonal firmness” and “structural uncertainty”**: - **Pre‑Lunar New Year cargo front‑loading** and delayed GRIs helped **push spot rates higher into early January 2026**.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - Carriers have sustained a schedule of **blank sailings** on the Asia–Northern Europe and Asia–Med trades, using capacity discipline to defend rate levels despite generally soft cargo growth.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - Forward‑looking rate outlook: - Baseline scenarios point to **average 2026 Asia–Europe all‑in rates below the post‑Red Sea spike peaks**, but **above 2019 pre‑COVID/pre‑crisis levels**, reflecting ongoing route lengthening, ETS/fuel costs, and risk premia.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - Analysts stress that **carriers’ willingness to maintain capacity discipline** – not demand growth – will largely determine whether early‑2026 strength can be sustained for the rest of the year.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarter-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) **3.3 Asia–US (Transpacific) rates & demand signals (2026)** - Transpacific (Asia–US West Coast / East Coast) is influenced by: - Slower but positive US import growth expectations in 2026. - Competitive dynamics as carriers rebalance capacity between **Asia–Europe** (constrained by Red Sea) and **Asia–US** routes.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - 2026 guidance from freight market outlooks suggests: - **Asia–US West Coast** spot rates expected to be **relatively softer** than Asia–Europe on a percentage basis, as that lane is less directly affected by Red Sea diversions. - **Asia–US East Coast** remains **more sensitive** to Panama Canal constraints and potential spillover from Asia–Europe network decisions; this can create episodic rate spikes if capacity is pulled into or out of the trade.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **3.4 Capacity, blank sailings & carrier behavior** - Across both Asia–Europe and Asia–US trades in 2026: - Carriers are expected to **continue using blank sailings, slow steaming, and service suspensions** to manage effective capacity. S&P and other market intelligence characterize this as a structural shift toward “**capacity management as a permanent tool**.”([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - The arrival of large newbuild tonnage in 2025–2026, combined with environmental regulations (CII, ETS), increases carriers’ incentive to **retire older ships, redeploy vessels, or keep some tonnage idle** to avoid a rate collapse.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **3.5 Port congestion & operational reliability, with Vietnam focus** - Global perspective: - Academic and industry analyses highlight that the **Red Sea crisis reshaped congestion patterns** more than it boosted average global congestion. Ports that became preferred alternates or hubs for rerouted services (e.g., some European and Middle Eastern ports) saw heightened pressure, while others experienced lower call frequencies but equipment shortages.([sciencedirect.com](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966692325003655?utm_source=openai)) - **Vietnam‑specific signals (2025–2026)** - While the latest large‑sample congestion study stops in mid‑2024, industry commentary through early 2026 indicates that **Vietnamese ports (e.g., Hai Phong, Cai Mep–Thi Vai, Cat Lai)** have generally fared **better than major Chinese hubs** in terms of vessel queue length, but face: - **Increased schedule unreliability** due to upstream network disruptions (late or bunching arrivals from Asia mainline loops altered by Red Sea diversions). - Periodic **yard and gate pressure** when carriers bunch Vietnam calls to recover schedules or reposition equipment.([sciencedirect.com](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966692325003655?utm_source=openai)) - Forward‑looking infrastructure expansions in Vietnam (new deepwater terminals in Cai Mep region; capacity investments in northern ports) are intended to absorb higher volumes, but **operational resilience in 2026 still hinges on global network stability**, especially on Asia–Europe loops that call at Vietnam before heading west.([en.vietnamplus.vn](https://en.vietnamplus.vn/aquatic-exports-stay-flexible-amid-rising-challenges-post324102.vnp?utm_source=openai)) **3.6 Implications for Vietnam exporters (including seafood) in 2026** - **Export planning & lead times** - Vietnam shippers to **EU/Med** must assume **longer and more volatile lead times** as long as Cape diversions and capacity discipline continue. For cold‑chain seafood, this often implies: - Booking earlier for sailings to Europe/Mediterranean. - Negotiating temperature‑control and demurrage terms carefully to mitigate risk from schedule unreliability.([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Cost pass‑through** - Elevated Asia–Europe rates relative to pre‑crisis levels increase landed cost of Vietnamese seafood in EU markets. For high‑volume, low‑margin products (commodity shrimp, standard pangasius fillets), **freight can absorb a higher share of total delivered cost in 2026**, constraining margin and sometimes prompting product re‑specification (e.g., higher value‑added content to absorb freight in value rather than in percentage terms).([agriculture.vn](https://agriculture.vn/vietnamese-shrimp-and-pangasius-choose-a-sustainable-path-in-global-competition-1190.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Modal & routing diversification** - Some Vietnam‑EU cargo is being **experimentally routed via US or Middle East hubs** or leveraging sea‑air corridors to manage transit time risk for high‑value seafood SKUs, although volumes remain small versus regular deep‑sea reefer services.([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/2026-freight-market-outlook?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Dimension 3:** ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai))