## Company Profile The Japan Air Cargo Institute for Safety (JACIS) — as listed in the lead memo — is a Japan-based air-cargo safety and operational institute that works with airports, carriers, forwarders and shippers to improve safe handling and compliance of air cargo. Public profile materials show JACIS focuses on cargo safety guidance, training, and best-practice dissemination at Japan’s major gateways (Narita, Haneda, Kansai). It appears to operate at a national industry level with membership and stakeholder links across carriers, ground handlers, and regulators; no public financial scale was found in the brief search. ## Pain Points 1) Client-level: Exporters/importers of perishables (seafood, premium fruit) and pharma face week‑to‑week uplift uncertainty and rate spikes in 2026 — missing narrow sales windows if cargo is offloaded or delayed. 2) Operational: Increased reliance on belly capacity and multi‑carrier routings (JAL/ANA hybrid network) raises trans‑shipment and temperature‑excursion risk for compliance‑sensitive goods; ground handlers and forwarders need better coordination and guaranteed uplift options. 3) Compliance/documentation: MHLW/MAFF risk‑based inspections and updated MRL phytosanitary rules raise the cost of non‑compliance; clients need pre‑export validation and consistent documentation to reduce inspection frequency and avoid detention that is costly in a tight capacity market. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] Japan air cargo market 2026 – capacity trends, belly vs freighter Haneda Narita slot restrictions 2026 === **Global / regional context entering 2026** - IATA’s latest data show global air cargo demand (CTK) up **4.3% YoY** with international CTKs up **5.5% YoY**, led by **Asia‑Pacific at +10.7%**, indicating strong regional flows into early 2026. Global cargo capacity (ACTK) expanded **4.5% YoY**, leaving load factors stable at **47.1%** – a relatively “balanced” market, but with pockets of tightness. ([craneww.com](https://www.craneww.com/site/assets/files/4402/marketupdate_air_february_2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - IATA’s December‑2025 market analysis notes that **dedicated freighter capacity on Europe–Asia and other major corridors grew ~5.6% YoY**, while belly‑hold capacity showed the “mirror image,” i.e., most incremental capacity came from passenger widebodies, and the industry entered 2026 with **less slack** than in prior years. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-december-2025/?utm_source=openai)) **Asia–Europe 2026 capacity and rates** - A recent analysis of 2026 Asia air freight rates reports that the **Iran conflict has removed more than 52% of Gulf‑hub freighter capacity** on the Europe–Asia corridor—these hubs historically acted as a backbone for Asia–Europe freighter flows. This has pushed **global average air cargo spot rates to US$3.34/kg in April 2026, up ~30% YoY**, with **Southeast Asia–Europe at US$5.12/kg** and **South Asia–Europe at US$4.39/kg**. ([valuechainasia.com](https://valuechainasia.com/articles/logistics/asia-air-freight-rates-2026-iran-conflict?utm_source=openai)) - A February‑2026 market update notes **Asia‑Pacific to Europe volumes in mid‑January were up nearly 20% YoY**, with strong demand from Southeast Asia and solid flows ex‑China/Hong Kong; freighter capacity was ramped **>15% WoW** in early January after the year‑end peak, underscoring very tight but responsive capacity on Asia‑Europe lanes. ([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/02/05/air-freight-markets-firm-as-chinese-new-year-front-loading-reshapes-early-year-demand/?utm_source=openai)) **Asia‑Pacific / intra‑Asia (including China–Japan, ASEAN–Japan)** - UPS’s 2026 Q1 logistics trends brief cites **Intra‑Asia air cargo demand up ~15.8% YoY in November 2025**, leading global growth, with **EU‑Asia up ~11.7%** and **Middle East–Asia up ~11.1%**. Their forward view for 2026 is that **belly capacity growth (+2.1%) will outpace freighter growth for most of 2026**, as passenger networks normalize. ([es-us-apps.ups.com](https://es-us-apps.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/quarterly-freight-and-logistics-trends?utm_source=openai)) - Accenture’s capacity tracking for late‑2024 to early‑2025 (still the most granular lane‑level data) shows: - **Asia‑Pacific–Middle East–Europe lanes** with persistent growth, heavily driven by **e‑commerce**, and - **Passenger belly capacity “stable” while freighter capacity shows recurring January volatility** (sharp post‑peak drop then pre‑CNY ramp‑up). ([accenture.com](https://www.accenture.com/ph-en/insights/travel/air-cargo-capacity?utm_source=openai)) This pattern appears to be continuing into 2026 per IATA’s January and March 2026 analyses, which highlight **seasonal compression** and redeployment of freighters away from politically exposed hubs, while belly capacity from Asia‑Pacific and Europe carriers remains resilient. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-march-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Japan‑specific capacity signals (freighter vs belly)** Quantitative lane‑specific Japan numbers are not broken out in the public 2026 datasets, but several indicators show how Japan fits into these Asia‑Pacific trends: - **Narita and Kansai remain freighter‑focused cargo hubs.** Narita is still Japan’s largest air‑cargo gateway by value and a major base for Nippon Cargo Airlines and foreign freighter operators. Planned investments under the “New Narita Airport” development plan target positioning Narita as a leading regional cargo hub by late‑2020s. ([aviationweek.com](https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/emirates-skycargo-expands-freighter-network-narita-international-airport?utm_source=openai)) - **Emirates SkyCargo’s expansion to Narita (dedicated 777Fs, in addition to existing KIX freighters)**, announced 2024, expanded Middle East–Japan long‑haul freighter capacity for electronics, pharma, and machinery—this capacity is still present into 2026 and is important for Japan–Europe routings via Dubai. ([aviationweek.com](https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/emirates-skycargo-expands-freighter-network-narita-international-airport?utm_source=openai)) - Japan Airlines (JAL) in March 2026 announced a **“hybrid, asset‑light” cargo strategy**: - Increasing **Narita–Chicago all‑cargo flights from 5 to 6 per week** via partner Kalitta Air from April 2026, - Deepening cooperation with Cargolux to access **Luxembourg as an EU cargo hub**, and - Leaning more on **partner‑operated freighters plus JAL belly capacity** rather than owning more freighter aircraft. ([theloadstar.com](https://theloadstar.com/jal-builds-hybrid-cargo-network-with-rail-air-push-and-asset-light-freighter-strategy/?utm_source=openai)) This suggests: more **flexible freighter lift for Japan–North America and Japan–Europe** without tying up JAL’s balance sheet, while belly capacity recovery on long‑haul passenger routes supports Europe–Japan and North America–Japan. **Freighter vs belly: 2026 balance for Japan‑related lanes** - Globally, 2025 data show dedicated freighter capacity on key corridors (including Europe–Asia) up **~5–6% YoY**, with belly capacity recovering with passenger traffic. Asia‑Pacific contributed disproportionately to the 4.5% global capacity increase. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-december-2025/?utm_source=openai)) - Forward‑looking commentary for 2026 suggests **belly growth modest but steady (+2.1%)**, while **freighter deployments will be more tactical**, particularly in Asia where e‑commerce and high‑tech exports are volatile. ([es-us-apps.ups.com](https://es-us-apps.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/quarterly-freight-and-logistics-trends?utm_source=openai)) - For Japan‑Europe and Japan‑ASEAN flows, this implies: - **Belly capacity** will depend strongly on the pace of passenger schedule expansion at JAL, ANA, and foreign carriers into Narita, Haneda and Kansai. - **Freighter capacity** is increasingly provided by foreign integrators and combination carriers (e.g., Cargolux, Emirates SkyCargo, Korean Air, China Airlines) with flexible deployment; Japan’s home carriers are leaning into **partnerships** rather than large owned freighter fleets. ([theloadstar.com](https://theloadstar.com/jal-builds-hybrid-cargo-network-with-rail-air-push-and-asset-light-freighter-strategy/?utm_source=openai)) **Key implications for Asia–Europe, China–Japan, ASEAN–Japan** - **Asia–Europe via Japan**: Ongoing high demand (+~10–20% YoY on some Asia‑Europe ex‑Asia flows in early 2026) and a 52% cut in Gulf‑hub freighter backbone capacity means **Japan–Europe routings could see rate spillover** and tighter space, especially for tech and e‑commerce cargo moving on multi‑stop networks (e.g., China/ASEAN → Japan → EU or via Middle East). ([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/02/05/air-freight-markets-firm-as-chinese-new-year-front-loading-reshapes-early-year-demand/?utm_source=openai)) - **China–Japan & ASEAN–Japan**: Strong Intra‑Asia growth (+15.8% YoY) alongside redeployment of freighters suggests **tight but generally available capacity**, with **belly on high‑frequency regional passenger flights** carrying a larger share of volume, and **narrow‑body belly dependence** on some regional routes creating more volatility for low‑density cargo. ([es-us-apps.ups.com](https://es-us-apps.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/quarterly-freight-and-logistics-trends?utm_source=openai)) **Summary for 2026 Japan‑related air cargo markets** - Demand on Asia‑Europe and Intra‑Asia corridors remains robust (double‑digit growth into early 2026), with **Japan plugged into both via Narita/KIX hubs**. - Capacity growth is moderate (low‑ to mid‑single‑digit YoY globally), but **freighter capacity on Europe–Asia has been sharply disrupted by geopolitical issues**, driving higher rates. - **Belly capacity is leading the recovery through 2026**, with freighters being dynamically redeployed; in Japan, home carriers are reinforcing capacity via **alliances and code‑shares** rather than new owned freighters. Sources: ([es-us-apps.ups.com](https://es-us-apps.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/quarterly-freight-and-logistics-trends?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [PROBLEM FRAMING] Air freight capacity shortages Japan 2026 – impact on perishables & e‑commerce; belly cargo volatility & schedule changes === **Evidence of tightening / shortage‑like conditions affecting Japan‑linked flows** Direct Japan‑only shortage statistics are scarce, but current global and regional developments clearly constrain effective capacity for shippers using Japan: - IATA’s 2026 data point to a **“balanced” but tight market**: global capacity up **4.5% YoY** against demand up **4.3%**, with **Asia‑Pacific international flows up 10.7% YoY** – meaning Asia lanes (incl. Japan) are absorbing a disproportionate share of growth. ([craneww.com](https://www.craneww.com/site/assets/files/4402/marketupdate_air_february_2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - The **>52% loss of Gulf‑hub freighter capacity on the Europe–Asia corridor in early 2026** has diverted flows to alternative routings (e.g., direct Asia–Europe services, northern Asia hubs, ocean‑air solutions). Spot rates up **~30% YoY** to US$3.34/kg globally, with Asia–Europe lanes priced above US$5/kg in some cases. This constrains airfreight options for Japan–Europe exporters/importers, especially for time‑sensitive goods. ([valuechainasia.com](https://valuechainasia.com/articles/logistics/asia-air-freight-rates-2026-iran-conflict?utm_source=openai)) - Market commentaries for early 2026 highlight **capacity behavior as the dominant market influence**: freighters were pulled back quickly after the 2025 peak, then re‑introduced ahead of Chinese New Year, creating weeks of tightness and then short‑term relief – a pattern that amplifies **seasonal “compression” around peaks** for shippers across Asia, including Japan. ([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/02/05/air-freight-markets-firm-as-chinese-new-year-front-loading-reshapes-early-year-demand/?utm_source=openai)) **Belly cargo volatility & airline schedule changes** - Accenture’s analysis describes **passenger belly capacity as “stable” overall**, but emphasizes **recurring volatility** from: - Seasonal schedule reductions/additions, - Aircraft type swaps (widebody ↔ narrowbody), and - Network adjustments responding to geopolitical disruptions. ([accenture.com](https://www.accenture.com/ph-en/insights/travel/air-cargo-capacity?utm_source=openai)) - Recent IATA commentary (Jan–Mar 2026) notes that **passenger belly capacity is leading capacity growth**, while freighters are being redeployed away from disrupted or policy‑exposed routes. For Japan, this implies: - **More reliance on passenger networks** (JAL, ANA, foreign carriers) for cargo, - Exposure to **short‑notice schedule changes** (e.g., frequency cuts on off‑peak days, up‑gauging/down‑gauging aircraft) that directly change available belly tons per week. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-march-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - JAL’s March‑2026 shift to a “hybrid, asset‑light” cargo strategy (outsourcing more long‑haul freighter flying to partners like Kalitta and Cargolux) means shippers face **more interline and multi‑carrier routings** rather than a single‑carrier freighter product. While this can provide flexibility, it may also introduce **new congestion points and trans‑shipment risk** for temperature‑sensitive or urgent goods. ([theloadstar.com](https://theloadstar.com/jal-builds-hybrid-cargo-network-with-rail-air-push-and-asset-light-freighter-strategy/?utm_source=openai)) **Impact on perishables shippers (seafood, fresh fruit, chilled foods)** Mechanisms through which 2026 capacity constraints / volatility affect perishables moving via Japan: 1. **Higher and more volatile spot rates** - With Asia–Europe and some Intra‑Asia lanes seeing 20%+ demand growth and reduced freighter backbone, the marginal capacity is priced higher. Perishable exporters competing for space (e.g., seafood into Japan, or Japanese high‑value foods outbound) face **rate spikes of 20–40% YoY** on certain weeks, in line with the ~30% global YoY rate increase reported for April 2026. ([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/02/05/air-freight-markets-firm-as-chinese-new-year-front-loading-reshapes-early-year-demand/?utm_source=openai)) 2. **Cut‑offs and uplift risk on passenger flights** - Perishables are often loaded last due to special handling or temperature constraints. When **baggage and passenger loads are high**, limited belly capacity leads to **offloads or partial uplift**, especially on narrowbody regional flights from origin points in China/ASEAN into Japan. - Aircraft changes (e.g., replacing a 787 with an A321 on regional routes) can cut effective cargo cube and weight by **30–60% for a given frequency**, compressing uplift for chilled seafood or fruit shipments to Japan. 3. **Routing extensions and transit‑time risk** - The disruption of Gulf‑hub routes and redeployment of freighters have pushed more cargo onto **multi‑stop routings**, e.g., SEA origin → North Asia hub (including Japan) → Europe. Perishable cargo using Japan as a consolidation point faces **longer transit times and more temperature‑excursion risk** when ground handling is congested. 4. **Competition with e‑commerce & high‑tech** - Asia‑Pacific airfreight growth is heavily driven by **e‑commerce, high‑tech, and AI hardware** shipments, which are relatively less sensitive to longer routings but very rate‑tolerant. These segments tend to **bid up rates on peak weeks**, crowding out low‑margin perishables on some flights. ([stattimes.com](https://www.stattimes.com/air-cargo/asia-pacific-air-freight-stays-strong-into-2026-amid-tight-capacity-1357734?utm_source=openai)) **Impact on e‑commerce shippers into/from Japan** - De minimis regimes in Europe and the US have fueled a surge of low‑value B2C e‑commerce moving by air from Asia since 2023, especially ex‑China. Forecasts for 2026 highlight e‑commerce as a **structural driver of Asia‑Pacific air volumes**, absorbing a growing share of belly capacity. ([freightos.com](https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/freightos-news/what-2025-means-for-2026-ocean-and-air-freight-forecast/?utm_source=openai)) - For Japan specifically, this leads to: - **Reliance on high‑frequency passenger flights and integrator networks** to handle cross‑border parcels; any downward adjustment in passenger schedules (especially off‑peak weekday cuts) directly constrains e‑commerce capacity. - Strong competition between **parcel and general cargo** for limited belly space on key intra‑Asia and trans‑Pacific services—raising **yield expectations** and pushing some SME shippers towards **slower ocean‑air or surface alternatives**. **Problem framing for 2026** From a shipper perspective, the Japan‑linked airfreight issue in 2026 is less an absolute shortage and more a **structural tightness and volatility problem**: - **Tight but elastic capacity**: Freighter operators can and do ramp up capacity by 10–15% WoW around peaks, but not enough to fully offset multi‑month disruptions (e.g., 52% loss of Gulf‑hub capacity). ([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/02/05/air-freight-markets-firm-as-chinese-new-year-front-loading-reshapes-early-year-demand/?utm_source=openai)) - **Belly‑led supply with schedule volatility**: As belly leads growth, any passenger schedule or gauge change from key partners into Japan translates immediately into **week‑to‑week cargo capacity variation**, complicating planning for perishables harvest cycles and promotion‑driven e‑commerce peaks. ([accenture.com](https://www.accenture.com/ph-en/insights/travel/air-cargo-capacity?utm_source=openai)) - **Lane‑specific squeeze**: Perishables and e‑commerce shippers that depend on **Japan–Europe** and **Japan‑inclusive intra‑Asia** flows are most exposed, as those lanes combine high demand growth, geopolitical disruptions, and limited freighter redundancy. Sources: ([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/02/05/air-freight-markets-firm-as-chinese-new-year-front-loading-reshapes-early-year-demand/?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [COMMODITY TRENDS] Japan imports – fresh seafood & fruits, 2026 airfreight demand; phytosanitary & MHLW regulatory updates impacting air shipments === **Japan import demand – fresh seafood & fresh fruit by air (directional)** Recent, commodity‑and mode‑specific quantitative data for 2026 are not yet fully published; however, several indicators and official plans show the direction of demand and controls: - Japan remains one of the world’s largest import markets for **fresh and chilled seafood** (salmon, tuna, shellfish) and fresh fruit (e.g., cherries, berries, tropical fruit). A 2025‑era overview from Narita and Japanese trade sources notes that **high‑value perishables (seafood, fruits, cut flowers) are key air cargo commodities** into Japan due to shelf‑life constraints. ([aviationweek.com](https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/emirates-skycargo-expands-freighter-network-narita-international-airport?utm_source=openai)) - MHLW’s **Imported Foods Monitoring and Guidance Plan for FY2025 (April 2025–March 2026)** explicitly lists **“seafood and processed seafood”** as a priority category for monitoring (with microbiological and toxin‑related checks), indicating continuing significant import volumes and ongoing scrutiny at air and sea ports. ([mhlw.go.jp](https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/001478400.pdf?utm_source=openai)) While public trade statistics do not yet isolate 2026 airfreight tonnage for these categories, based on pre‑2024 patterns and current market reports: - A substantial share of **high‑value fresh seafood (e.g., sashimi‑grade salmon, live shellfish) from Europe, North America, and parts of Asia** continues to move by air to meet quality requirements and “just‑in‑time” restaurant demand. - **Counter‑seasonal fruit** (Australian cherries, US/Canadian cherries, berries, and some Southeast Asian tropical fruit) also rely on airfreight during early season and promotional windows. Ongoing regional growth of middle‑class consumption and tourism within Japan underpins this demand. **Key MHLW / phytosanitary regulatory framework impacting air‑imported seafood & fruit** 1. **General imported food controls (Food Sanitation Act)** - All food importers must file an **import notification** with MHLW for each shipment under Article 27 of the Food Sanitation Act; goods cannot be sold or used in business without this notification. Quarantine stations at **32 international airports and seaports** carry out inspections and document checks. ([mhlw.go.jp](https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/topics/importedfoods/index.html?utm_source=openai)) - MHLW uses an annual **Imported Foods Monitoring and Guidance Plan** to set target inspection frequencies and priority items for each fiscal year (including FY2025–26). For high‑risk items, inspection rates can be significantly higher than the overall average. ([mhlw.go.jp](https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/topics/importedfoods/index.html?utm_source=openai)) 2. **FY2025 Monitoring Plan focus for seafood & fruit (effective April 2025 – March 2026, covering today)** The latest plan (published May 2026 for FY2025, but operational since April 1, 2025) specifies for **seafood and processed seafood**: ([mhlw.go.jp](https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/001478400.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Hazards monitored:** - Pathogenic microbes, such as **Vibrio parahaemolyticus** for fillet, shelled/peeled fresh fish and shellfish intended to be eaten raw. - **Diarrheic and paralytic shellfish poisons** for shellfish. - **Controls and documentation:** - Confirmation of **processing standards** in the exporting country at a level equivalent to Japan’s. - Regular testing to ensure **absence of pathogenic microbes** and conformity to constituent standards. - **Storage standards and temperature control** verification (proper cold‑chain conditions). - Checking of **certificates issued by governmental agencies** in exporting countries where required. For **fresh fruit and vegetables**, the plan (and related MHLW guidance) emphasizes: ([mhlw.go.jp](https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/topics/importedfoods/index.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Pesticide residues** conformity with Japanese Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs). - Monitoring of **fungal toxins and microbial contamination** where relevant (particularly for minimally processed or cut fruit). - Coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) plant quarantine service for **phytosanitary issues** such as fruit flies and other quarantine pests (handled under separate MAFF regulations, but operationally relevant to air imports). 3. **Recent / 2026‑relevant updates affecting air shipments** - MHLW continuously updates **positive lists and standards** for additives and contaminants; 2024–2025 amendments (carried into 2026 operations) include revisions to certain **pesticide MRLs and food additive approvals**, which directly affect compliance for imported fruit and some processed seafood. (These are reflected in updated annexes to the Food Sanitation Act and are referenced from the imported food safety portal.) ([mhlw.go.jp](https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/topics/importedfoods/index.html?utm_source=openai)) - MHLW’s imported food portal now clearly outlines **risk‑based inspection**, implying that exporters with a history of compliance may face lower inspection frequencies, while new origins or commodities associated with prior violations will see higher sampling rates—this is particularly relevant for **new fruit origins** or **emerging seafood suppliers** seeking to use airfreight into Japan. ([mhlw.go.jp](https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/topics/importedfoods/index.html?utm_source=openai)) - Separate MAFF measures (plant quarantine) – not detailed in the MHLW plan but operational for fruit imports – include: - Updated lists of countries/regions approved for specific fruits, with defined **pre‑shipment treatment requirements** (e.g., cold treatment, vapor heat) to mitigate fruit fly and other pests. - These treatments must often be completed **before export** and documented on **phytosanitary certificates**, which must accompany the air shipment. **Regulatory and operational implications for airfreight demand** - **Higher compliance costs = premium mode persistence:** - The cost of meeting stringent microbiological, toxin and pesticide‑residue requirements, combined with the need for reliable cold‑chain controls and documentation, effectively biases exporters of high‑value seafood and fruit to **maintain airfreight usage**: the premium freight cost is justified by reduced spoilage risk, more predictable inspection outcomes, and the ability to quickly respond to non‑conformities. - **Risk‑based inspections reward established supply chains:** - Exporters with strong compliance records can expect **lower sampling rates**, fewer delays at Japanese airports, and more predictable lead times—reinforcing the use of specific, well‑managed air corridors (e.g., regular salmon flights into Narita/Kansai, cherry programs into Narita/Haneda). - **Capacity tightness interacts with inspection delays:** - In a tight 2026 capacity environment, any **detention of cargo for inspection or non‑compliance** can be particularly costly if it causes shippers to **miss narrow selling windows** (e.g., seafood for weekends, fruit for promotions). This raises the value of secure capacity agreements (block‑space or longer‑term allocations) and **integrated cold‑chain handling at Japan airports**. **Forward‑looking (2026) view** - No major new Japan‑specific bans or sweeping regulatory shocks on seafood and fruit have been introduced in 2026 so far; rather, regulators are **refining risk‑based controls and updating standards**. - Given Japan’s demographic and consumption patterns, demand for **high‑quality imported seafood and premium fruit** is likely to remain robust, maintaining a **stable to slightly rising airfreight demand** segment, despite rate volatility. - Combined with 2026 capacity conditions (tight lanes, belly‑driven supply, and freighter disruption), this implies continued **competition for airspace** among seafood, fruit, pharma, high‑tech and e‑commerce segments on key Japan gateways. Sources: ([mhlw.go.jp](https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/topics/importedfoods/index.html?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • Global Demand Momentum: Air cargo demand (CTK) increased 4.3% YoY, reflecting resilient and targeted freight flows concentrated in specific regions and trade lanes rather than a broad-based global trade acceleration. Regional Performance Divergence: International CTK rose 5.5% YoY, led by Asia Pacific (+10.7%) and Africa (+10.1%), the only regions achieving double-digit growth, while the Americas experienced contraction. Capacity & Load Factors: Global cargo capacity (ACTK) expanded 4.5% YoY, with load factors stable at 47.1%, indicating disciplined fleet deployment and uneven capacity absorption across markets. Fuel & Yield Trends: Jet fuel prices declined 3.1% YoY (ninth annual drop in 2025), narrowing the Brent–jet fuel crack to USD 23.9; however, cargo yields continued to soften (-2.6% YoY) for the eighth consecutive month, despite relatively stable month-on-month rates (-0.4%). Source: IATA.com | | Chart 1 – Industry CTK (in billion) https://www.craneww.com/site/assets/files/4402/marketupdate_air_february_2026.pdf?utm_source=openai • Air Cargo Market Analysis December 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-december-2025/?utm_source=openai • Asia Air Freight Rates 2026: Costs Soar as Gulf Hubs Halt https://valuechainasia.com/articles/logistics/asia-air-freight-rates-2026-iran-conflict?utm_source=openai • Air freight markets firm as Chinese New Year front-loading reshapes early-year demand | Metro Global https://metro.global/2026/02/05/air-freight-markets-firm-as-chinese-new-year-front-loading-reshapes-early-year-demand/?utm_source=openai • 2026 Q1 Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends | UPS Supply Chain Solutions https://es-us-apps.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/quarterly-freight-and-logistics-trends?utm_source=openai • Current State of Global Air Cargo Industry Capacity | Accenture https://www.accenture.com/ph-en/insights/travel/air-cargo-capacity?utm_source=openai • Air Cargo Market Analysis https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-march-2026/?utm_source=openai • Emirates SkyCargo expands freighter network to Narita International Airport | Aviation Week Network https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/emirates-skycargo-expands-freighter-network-narita-international-airport?utm_source=openai • Emirates SkyCargo expands freighter network to Narita International Airport | Aviation Week Network https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/emirates-skycargo-expands-freighter-network-narita-international-airport?utm_source=openai • JAL builds hybrid cargo network with rail-air push and asset-light freighter strategy - The Loadstar https://theloadstar.com/jal-builds-hybrid-cargo-network-with-rail-air-push-and-asset-light-freighter-strategy/?utm_source=openai • Air Cargo Market Analysis December 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-december-2025/?utm_source=openai • 2026 Q1 Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends | UPS Supply Chain Solutions https://es-us-apps.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/quarterly-freight-and-logistics-trends?utm_source=openai • 2026 Q1 Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends | UPS Supply Chain Solutions https://es-us-apps.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/quarterly-freight-and-logistics-trends?utm_source=openai • Global Demand Momentum: Air cargo demand (CTK) increased 4.3% YoY, reflecting resilient and targeted freight flows concentrated in specific regions and trade lanes rather than a broad-based global trade acceleration. Regional Performance Divergence: International CTK rose 5.5% YoY, led by Asia Pacific (+10.7%) and Africa (+10.1%), the only regions achieving double-digit growth, while the Americas experienced contraction. Capacity & Load Factors: Global cargo capacity (ACTK) expanded 4.5% YoY, with load factors stable at 47.1%, indicating disciplined fleet deployment and uneven capacity absorption across markets. Fuel & Yield Trends: Jet fuel prices declined 3.1% YoY (ninth annual drop in 2025), narrowing the Brent–jet fuel crack to USD 23.9; however, cargo yields continued to soften (-2.6% YoY) for the eighth consecutive month, despite relatively stable month-on-month rates (-0.4%).