## Company Profile CATONI HAVA & DENIZ TASIMACILIK LTD. — Turkish freight forwarder (lead contact: George Kile, Company Manager). Evidence shows membership in the Global Aircargo Alliance. Operates on Turkey’s air and sea trade lanes (Istanbul and major Turkish ports/airports to EU, MENA, CIS and Asia). Likely provides air and ocean freight, transshipment and customs clearance; scale and website not provided in lead data. ## Pain Points 1) Margin pressure from structural container overcapacity in 2026: lower ocean spot rates compress percentage-based commissions and reduce forwarder revenue — Catoni needs new, higher-margin value propositions to replace lost ocean income. 2) Route insecurity and surcharges (Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Black Sea): route closures/diversions, longer transit times and war-risk premiums complicate planning for shipments to MENA, GCC and CIS; clients need fast, reliable multi-modal alternatives and sourcing options. 3) Time-sensitive commodity pressure and market intelligence gap: 2025/26 hazelnut crop shock (big volume drop, big price rise), seasonal perishables peaks (cherries May–Jul, Ramadan seafood demand, citrus season) create urgent air/charter demand and buyer-sourcing needs that many forwarders cannot fulfil alone without buyer connections, procurement and fulfillment support. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] — Turkey freight forwarding market 2026 === **Structural capacity & rate environment (containers & air)** - Global container shipping is moving into *structural overcapacity* through 2026 as a large newbuild orderbook delivers and Red Sea diversions eventually unwind, which is expected to put **downward pressure on freight rates** from current elevated levels. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai)) - As major liners (Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag‑Lloyd, others) remain cautious on Red Sea/Suez transits in 2024–2026, effective capacity on Asia–Europe lanes is still constrained by Cape of Good Hope rerouting, lengthening round‑voyage times and tying up vessels. Turkey‑bound trades via Mediterranean hubs (Piraeus, Algeciras, Valencia, Gioia Tauro, Port Said) are affected similarly, with higher schedule unreliability but increased deployment of extra‑loader tonnage. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai)) - Industry analysis for 2026 indicates that **as soon as Red Sea/Suez routes normalize**, a large chunk of fleet capacity is “released” back into the global network, pushing spot rates down on Asia–Med and Med–North Europe trades. This is particularly relevant to Turkish freight forwarders who contract on shorter terms and are exposed to spot and short‑term index‑linked contracts. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai)) **Route shifts affecting Turkey (MENA/EU focus)** - Since late 2023, most of the top 10 container carriers have been **avoiding Bab el‑Mandeb/Red Sea** for containerized trades, routing via the Cape of Good Hope instead. This persists into 2026 with only gradual, partial reopening, so flows between Asia and Turkey (often transshipped via East Med hubs) have had **10–14 extra days of transit** and higher bunker costs. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - For Turkey’s exports to **MENA and the Gulf**, heightened insecurity in both the Red Sea and (since early 2026) the Strait of Hormuz has pushed some shippers to: - Re‑route via **Mediterranean–Suez options where still feasible**, or - Use **land–sea combinations** (e.g., trucking to East Med ports, then feedering to North Africa / East Med, or rail/truck to Gulf via Iraq where possible). Major container lines have curtailed sailings through the Hormuz/Red Sea corridor during the 2026 crisis, further increasing reliance on Turkish and East Med transhipment. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - EU‑bound Turkish exports (textiles, white goods, agri‑food) continue to leverage **short‑sea services from Turkish ports (Istanbul/Ambarlı, Izmir, Mersin, Iskenderun) into the Adriatic, Italy, Greece, Spain and Northern Europe**, with: - More frequent **feeder loops** into major EU gateways (Rotterdam, Antwerp‑Bruges, Hamburg, Koper, Trieste). - Growing integration with **intermodal rail‑truck corridors** (e.g., from Halkali/Kapikule into Central Europe) to reduce exposure to ocean disruptions. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai)) **Air freight capacity & modal shifts** - Global air cargo demand reached **record volumes in 2025**, up about **11–12% vs 2024**, with strong e‑commerce and resilient Asia–Europe flows. Available cargo tonne‑kilometers (ACTKs) also increased as long‑haul passenger capacity returned, easing tightness in most markets entering 2026. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai)) - Turkey’s position as a **Eurasian air hub** (Istanbul) means Turkish freight forwarders benefited from: - Recovered **bellyhold capacity** on Turkish Airlines and other carriers’ passenger networks. - Continued growth of **Turkish Cargo** (all‑cargo plus belly) which specializes in pharmaceuticals, perishables, e‑commerce and high‑value cargo. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Cargo?utm_source=openai)) - With container shipping disrupted via the Red Sea and Hormuz, some Turkish shippers of **time‑sensitive, high‑value goods** (electronics, pharma, urgent spare parts, select perishables) are paying a premium to move via air or sea‑air routings through Istanbul and Gulf hubs, particularly on Asia–Turkey and Turkey–GCC lanes. This boosts demand for scheduled and charter freighters in 2025–2026. **Impact of Black Sea and regional insecurity on Turkish shippers** - Continued conflict and security risks in the **Black Sea region** (Ukraine/Russia) since 2022 have: - Reduced reliance on direct Black Sea container routes for Turkey’s East European and CIS traffic. - Increased usage of **overland “Middle Corridor” routes** (Turkey–Caucasus–Caspian–Central Asia) and alternative ports in Georgia (Poti/Batumi) and Romania/Bulgaria, coordinated by Turkish forwarders. ([tarimorman.gov.tr](https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/TRGM/Belgeler/0AVRUPA%20B%C4%B0RL%C4%B0%C4%9E%C4%B0%20YAPISAL%20UYUM%20Y%C3%96NET%C4%B0M%20OTOR%C4%B0TES%C4%B0%20DA%C4%B0RE%20BA%C5%9EKANLI%C4%9EI/Wep/IPARD%20III%20Programme%20V.2024.0%20%28EN%29.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - The **geopolitical premium** on insurance and war risk surcharges in both the Black Sea and Red Sea theatres has raised end‑to‑end logistics costs for Turkish exporters, particularly those on CIF terms, even as base freight rates may soften with global capacity overhang in 2026. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for Turkish freight forwarders (2026 outlook)** - 2026 is shaping up as a **margin‑squeezing year**: - Structural container overcapacity = **lower ocean freight rates**, compressing percentage‑based commissions. - But **volatile route availability** (Red Sea, Black Sea, Hormuz) sustains demand for value‑added services: route design, multi‑modal solutions, storage, and risk management. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai)) - Forwarders with strong presence in: - **Istanbul air hub**, - **Mersin/Iskenderun and Izmir seaports**, and - **Road/rail corridors into the EU and Central Asia** are better positioned to capture cargo switching from disrupted maritime routes or shifting production/assembly to Turkey for “nearshoring” into the EU. ([webgate.ec.europa.eu](https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/isdb_results/isdb_rsg/factsheets/country_factsheets/agrifood_cfs/countries/agrifood-turkey_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [DEMAND SIGNALS] — Air cargo demand from Turkey 2026 (perishables, high‑value) === **Macro air cargo context for Turkey** - IATA reports **record global air cargo volume in 2025**, driven by e‑commerce, resilient Asia–Europe trade, and modal shift from constrained ocean shipping. Turkey participates in this growth as a major Asia–Europe bridge and e‑commerce node. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai)) - Turkish Cargo (as the cargo arm of Turkish Airlines) continues to rank among the world’s leading cargo carriers by freight tonne‑kilometers, handling **pharmaceuticals (CEIV‑certified), perishables, live animals, valuables and e‑commerce parcels** through its Istanbul mega‑hub, with expanded dedicated cargo facilities. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Cargo?utm_source=openai)) **Perishables: fresh produce & seafood** - Turkey exported **US$6.21 billion of edible fruits and nuts (including citrus and other fruits)** in 2025, reflecting robust outbound flows of perishable and semi‑perishable commodities. While most ship by reefer container or truck, higher‑value or time‑sensitive consignments (berries, cherries, premium seafood, urgent shipments during weather‑related disruptions) move by air. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/exports/edible-fruits-nuts-peel-citrus-fruit-melons?utm_source=openai)) - Fresh fruit & vegetable exports reached about **US$3.7 billion in 2025**, with core lines including citrus, tomatoes, grapes, and cherries, and key markets in the EU, Russia, and MENA. This creates **strong seasonal export peaks** (see below) where airfreight is used for market windows and short shelf‑life items. ([dailysabah.com](https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkish-agricultural-exports-clinch-new-record-despite-drought-frost?utm_source=openai)) **High‑value and special cargo (pharma, e‑commerce, other)** - Pharmaceuticals: Turkey is an important generic drug and vaccine producer and a distribution hub for pharma flows between Europe, the CIS, MENA and Africa. Turkish Cargo emphasizes **GDP/CEIV‑compatible cold‑chain solutions**, and the 2025 record in global air cargo suggests **mid‑single‑digit to low double‑digit growth in pharma volumes** through Istanbul into 2026, supported by health‑care demand and regional tender contracts. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai)) - E‑commerce: Global B2C cross‑border e‑commerce is a key driver of air cargo growth. Turkey’s large domestic platforms and its role as **a near‑shoring base for EU‑focused online sellers** support continued **double‑digit growth in e‑commerce parcels** flown into/out of Istanbul, Ankara and other airports, with integrators and postal operators expanding capacity. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai)) - High‑value manufacturing: White goods, electronics components, automotive parts, textiles and fashion items increasingly use air freight for **JIT shipments and fast fashion replenishment** to European hubs, especially when ocean lead times are extended by Red Sea diversions. **Seasonality & peak patterns (2025–2026)** - **Fresh cherries & soft fruits** (May–July): - Turkey is a leading cherry exporter; airfreight is used to reach **high‑price markets in East Asia and the Gulf** within narrow harvest windows. Volumes surge for 8–10 weeks, creating annual air cargo peaks ex‑Istanbul and regional airports close to growing areas. ([specialtycrops.org](https://specialtycrops.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1_2022_Turkey.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Citrus (Oct–Mar)** and **table grapes (late summer/autumn)**: - Primarily reefer/truck, but urgent consignments and premium categories ship by air, particularly to distant Gulf/Asian buyers or when seaborne logistics are disrupted. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/exports/edible-fruits-nuts-peel-citrus-fruit-melons?utm_source=openai)) - **Seafood**: - Farmed sea bass/sea bream and other seafood for Gulf and EU markets see heightened demand **before Ramadan and key holidays**, pushing some exporters toward air cargo for ultra‑fresh deliveries. (Turkey is a leading Mediterranean aquaculture exporter.) - **Pharma & vaccines**: - Less seasonally concentrated, but **tender cycles and flu seasons** (Q4–Q1) augment outbound and inbound flows, particularly temperature‑controlled shipments via Istanbul. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai)) - **E‑commerce**: - Predictable peaks around **Singles’ Day, Black Friday/Cyber Monday, and year‑end holidays**, plus Ramadan/Eid in MENA. These drive surges in parcel and small‑packet throughput across Turkish hubs. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai)) **Origin diversification within Turkey & network implications** - While Istanbul remains the dominant air cargo origin, Turkish forwarders increasingly consolidate perishables and high‑value goods from: - Mediterranean and Aegean regions (Antalya, Mersin, Adana, Izmir) for **fresh produce and cut flowers**; - Black Sea coast (Ordu–Giresun, Trabzon, Samsun) for **hazelnut kernel shipments, some berries and niche perishables**; - Central/Western industrial clusters for **pharma, automotive, machinery, textiles**. ([specialtycrops.org](https://specialtycrops.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1_2022_Turkey.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - This creates opportunities for **trucking‑plus‑air models** (RFS to Istanbul and other hubs), and for secondary airports (e.g., Antalya, Adana, Izmir) to host more direct freighter calls during strong seasonal campaigns. **Net 2026 demand signal** - Taking into account: - Record global air cargo volume in 2025, - Ongoing ocean disruptions via the Red Sea/Hormuz, and - Turkey’s strong 2025 agricultural export performance and its role as a regional manufacturing/e‑commerce hub, the **baseline expectation is continued positive growth in 2026 Turkish air cargo demand**, particularly in: perishables to high‑yield markets (Asia, GCC), pharma, and cross‑border e‑commerce flows. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [COMMODITY TRENDS] — Turkish agricultural export trends 2026 (hazelnuts, citrus, tomatoes, dried fruit) === **Overall agricultural export performance** - Türkiye’s agriculture and food exports reached around **US$27.79 billion in 2025**, up slightly year‑on‑year, with December 2025 shipments alone up **13.6% vs December 2024** to US$3.01 billion. Hazelnut kernels were among the top items, reaching roughly **US$1 billion**, with mandarins third at **US$891.7 million**. Iraq remained the top market at **US$3.4 billion** in imports from Türkiye. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai)) - Broader agricultural exports, including processed products, were reported at **US$36.4 billion in 2025**, a record high, suggesting strong performance across multiple value chains. ([dailysabah.com](https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkish-agricultural-exports-clinch-new-record-despite-drought-frost?utm_source=openai)) - Within this, **edible fruits and nuts** exports totalled about **US$6.21 billion in 2025**, underscoring the importance of hazelnuts, citrus, grapes, figs, apricots and other fruits. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/exports/edible-fruits-nuts-peel-citrus-fruit-melons?utm_source=openai)) #### 3.1 Hazelnuts **Volumes, values and price dynamics** - Turkey produces roughly **70% of the world’s hazelnuts**, and hazelnuts remain its flagship agricultural export. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Turkey?utm_source=openai)) - According to the Black Sea Exporters Association and industry analyses: - 2024/25 export season closed around **309,000 MT (kernel basis)**, similar to the previous year. ([inc.nutfruit.org](https://inc.nutfruit.org/hazelnut-crop-update-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) - Severe weather events in 2025 cut yields by **~40%**, reducing production to **~441,000 tons vs 717,000 tons in 2024**. Exports in the 2025 season (calendar 2025) fell **26.4% to 238,704 tons** (from 324,438 tons). ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-hazelnut-exports-plunge-31-in-2026-as-bad-weather-affects-harvest-3219768?utm_source=openai)) - For September 2025–March 2026, exports were **~104,762 MT vs 205,934 MT** a year earlier – a drop of about **50%** in volume. ([heliosingredients.com](https://heliosingredients.com/hazelnut-market-update-april-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Despite sharply lower volumes, **export revenues held up or even increased** due to higher prices: - First four months of 2026: export revenue **up 17% YoY to US$990.9 million**, even as shipment volume **fell 31% to 71,315 tons**. This implies a **~70%+ increase in average unit value per ton** year‑on‑year. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-hazelnut-exports-plunge-31-in-2026-as-bad-weather-affects-harvest-3219768?utm_source=openai)) **Buyer base and market shifts** - Fererro and Yavuz Gıda are among the top hazelnut exporters, each exceeding **US$250 million** in exports in 2025; their diversified buyer portfolios include EU confectionery manufacturers, global chocolate brands and roasters. ([mundus-agri.eu](https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/hazelnuts-buyers-show-interest.n36366.html?utm_source=openai)) - EU remains the largest market (Germany, Italy, France, others), but **price spikes and tight supply** in 2025/26 are encouraging: - Some **downtrading and reformulation** by buyers (reduced nut content, smaller pack sizes). - Increased interest in **alternative origins** (e.g., Italy, Georgia, Azerbaijan) at the margin. Still, Turkey’s dominant share means global buyers have limited scope to fully shift away. ([inc.nutfruit.org](https://inc.nutfruit.org/hazelnut-crop-update-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) **2026 outlook** - With inventories relatively low and the 2025 crop reduced, **2026 export volumes are expected to remain below potential**, while prices stay elevated at least through the 2025/26 marketing year. Hazelnut‑based product manufacturers may continue to face **raw material cost pressures**, supporting Turkish export earnings in value terms even if tonnages remain constrained. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-hazelnut-exports-plunge-31-in-2026-as-bad-weather-affects-harvest-3219768?utm_source=openai)) #### 3.2 Citrus (mandarins, lemons, oranges) **Recent performance & volumes** - Turkey is a major citrus exporter (oranges, lemons, mandarins, grapefruits). Historical FAO‑based data show annual exports of: - **Tomatoes** 235,364 MT worth US$109.6 million, - **Lemons/limes** 216,756 MT worth US$99.2 million, - **Mandarins/tangerines** 216,102 MT worth US$95.6 million, but more recent trade statistics and industry sources indicate materially higher values for 2025 in today’s nominal terms. ([fao.org](https://www.fao.org/4/i1500e/Turkey.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - In 2025, mandarins were recorded as the **third‑largest agricultural export item by value at ~US$892 million**, underscoring strong demand from Russia, EU and MENA. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai)) **Destination shifts** - **EU & UK**: Growing demand for citrus as a “healthy” product, plus Turkey’s proximity and competitive pricing, support continued growth, although EU regulatory pressure on plant‑health (e.g., citrus black spot, pest controls) and pesticide MRLs is intensifying. ([webgate.ec.europa.eu](https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/isdb_results/isdb_rsg/factsheets/country_factsheets/agrifood_cfs/countries/agrifood-turkey_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **MENA & Russia**: Remain critical outlets, with logistics advantages via Black Sea and Eastern Med routes; however, security disruptions and sanctions‑related payment/insurance complexities influence route choices and financing. - **Asia**: Niche but growing markets (e.g., Far East for premium citrus) are being developed, sometimes using airfreight for high‑value segments. ([specialtycrops.org](https://specialtycrops.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1_2022_Turkey.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Price trends & 2026 market** - Climate variability (drought, frost) has affected yields, but the citrus sector has fared better than hazelnuts. FOB prices have been **firm to moderately higher** in 2024/25, but competition from Egypt, Morocco and Spain caps upside. - For 2026, with more normal weather conditions, Turkey is expected to maintain **stable to slightly higher citrus export volumes**, with continued diversification from Russia toward EU and Gulf markets in value terms. ([dailysabah.com](https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkish-agricultural-exports-clinch-new-record-despite-drought-frost?utm_source=openai)) #### 3.3 Tomatoes **Role in Turkish exports** - Tomatoes (fresh and processed) are one of Turkey’s key vegetable export lines. Past FAO‑linked data show exports around **235,000 MT** valued at **~US$110 million** for fresh tomatoes, while tomato paste exports were **183,254 MT worth US$133.8 million**; more recent nominal values are higher but trends are consistent. ([fao.org](https://www.fao.org/4/i1500e/Turkey.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Market directions & shifts** - Primary markets: **Russia, EU (mainly Eastern/Southern), Middle East (Iraq, Gulf)**. Iraq alone absorbs a significant volume of Turkish agri‑food exports generally (~US$3.4 billion across categories in 2025), with tomatoes and tomato products among key items. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai)) - Trade with Russia has periodically been influenced by bilateral political tensions and phytosanitary disputes, prompting Turkey to: - Diversify to **EU, Balkan and Gulf markets**, and - Increase **processed tomato exports** (paste, canned) which face somewhat different competitive dynamics. ([tarimorman.gov.tr](https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/TRGM/Belgeler/0AVRUPA%20B%C4%B0RL%C4%B0%C4%9E%C4%B0%20YAPISAL%20UYUM%20Y%C3%96NET%C4%B0M%20OTOR%C4%B0TES%C4%B0%20DA%C4%B0RE%20BA%C5%9EKANLI%C4%9EI/Wep/IPARD%20III%20Programme%20V.2024.0%20%28EN%29.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Price and competitiveness** - For 2025–2026, energy and fertilizer costs, plus water scarcity, have raised production costs, but Turkey remains cost‑competitive vs EU growers due to lower labour costs and favourable climate. - Export prices for tomato paste and fresh tomatoes have been **supported by regional supply tightness** in some competitor origins, although increased greenhouse production in nearby countries (e.g., Morocco, Spain) exerts competitive pressure in EU markets. ([tarimorman.gov.tr](https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/TRGM/Belgeler/0AVRUPA%20B%C4%B0RL%C4%B0%C4%9E%C4%B0%20YAPISAL%20UYUM%20Y%C3%96NET%C4%B0M%20OTOR%C4%B0TES%C4%B0%20DA%C4%B0RE%20BA%C5%9EKANLI%C4%9EI/Wep/IPARD%20III%20Programme%20V.2024.0%20%28EN%29.pdf?utm_source=openai)) #### 3.4 Dried fruit (raisins, apricots, figs and others) **Export scale & climate impacts** - Turkey is a world leader in **seedless raisins, dried apricots, and dried figs**. Dried fruit exports reached about **US$1.7 billion in 2025**, despite production losses linked to climate change (frost, heatwaves). ([mundus-agri.eu](https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/dried-fruit-climate-crisis-felt-turkey.n36307.html?utm_source=openai)) - Earlier FAO‑based figures (illustrative of structure) show: - **Raisins**: 211,894 MT, US$231.4 million; - **Dried apricots**: 81,292 MT, US$197.7 million; - **Dried figs**: 49,074 MT, US$85.6 million. ([fao.org](https://www.fao.org/4/i1500e/Turkey.pdf?utm_source=openai)) Nominal 2025 values are higher, but these underline the significance of each commodity. **Price movements & buyer behavior** - The 2025–2026 season has seen **tight supplies** for some Turkish dried fruits due to frost and drought, particularly in Malatya (apricots) and Aegean fig/raisin areas: - Exporters report **firm to rising FOB prices**, with some grades seeing double‑digit percentage price increases versus previous seasons. ([mundus-agri.eu](https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/dried-fruit-climate-crisis-felt-turkey.n36307.html?utm_source=openai)) - Main buyers: **EU (Germany, UK, Netherlands, Italy), Russia, North America, MENA and Asia (notably China and East Asia for raisins and apricots)**. - Buyer responses include: - **Switching between origins** (e.g., to Iran, USA, Chile, South Africa for specific dried fruit where possible), - Downgrading to cheaper grades, and - Reformulating retail packs to maintain price points. ([inc.nutfruit.org](https://inc.nutfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Nutfruit_March2026_LowRes_links_.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **2026 outlook by region (EU, MENA, Asia)** - **EU**: - Remains the largest and most value‑intensive market; EU import statistics show steady to modestly growing imports of Turkish dried fruits, though growth rates are tempered by health‑driven sugar concerns and competition from other snack categories. - Stricter EU food‑safety, MRL and contaminant limits (e.g., aflatoxins, SO₂ limits) continue to shape Turkish exporters’ cost base and processing requirements. ([webgate.ec.europa.eu](https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/isdb_results/isdb_rsg/factsheets/country_factsheets/agrifood_cfs/countries/agrifood-turkey_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **MENA**: - Strong demand for traditional dried fruits (ramadan, religious festivals) supports resilient volumes, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE and others as key outlets. Price‑sensitive consumers may shift toward lower grades in response to higher prices. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai)) - **Asia**: - Growing middle classes and interest in healthy/functional snacks underpin **rising imports of Turkish raisins, apricots and figs**, especially in East Asia. Niche premium and organic segments are expanding, sometimes using air freight for high‑end retail programs. ([inc.nutfruit.org](https://inc.nutfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Nutfruit_March2026_LowRes_links_.pdf?utm_source=openai)) --- If you want, I can next translate these trends into **implications for a Turkish forwarder’s product strategy** (e.g., which lanes, commodities and service bundles to prioritize through 2026). Sources: • Maersk faces a tougher 2026 as container overcapacity pressures freight rates | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai • Maersk faces a tougher 2026 as container overcapacity pressures freight rates | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai • Maersk faces a tougher 2026 as container overcapacity pressures freight rates | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai • Red Sea crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai • 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis?utm_source=openai • Maersk faces a tougher 2026 as container overcapacity pressures freight rates | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • Turkish Cargo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Cargo?utm_source=openai • SIGN EN ANNEX https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/TRGM/Belgeler/0AVRUPA%20B%C4%B0RL%C4%B0%C4%9E%C4%B0%20YAPISAL%20UYUM%20Y%C3%96NET%C4%B0M%20OTOR%C4%B0TES%C4%B0%20DA%C4%B0RE%20BA%C5%9EKANLI%C4%9EI/Wep/IPARD%20III%20Programme%20V.2024.0%20%28EN%29.pdf?utm_source=openai • Maersk faces a tougher 2026 as container overcapacity pressures freight rates | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai • Maersk faces a tougher 2026 as container overcapacity pressures freight rates | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai • Maersk faces a tougher 2026 as container overcapacity pressures freight rates | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/03/maersk-faces-a-tougher-2026-as-container-overcapacity-pressures-freight-rates?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • REPUBLIC OF TÜRKİYE https://specialtycrops.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1_2022_Turkey.pdf?utm_source=openai • Turkey Exports of edible fruits, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons - 2026 Data 2027 Forecast 1989-2025 Historical https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/exports/edible-fruits-nuts-peel-citrus-fruit-melons?utm_source=openai • Turkish agricultural exports clinch new record despite drought, frost | Daily Sabah https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkish-agricultural-exports-clinch-new-record-despite-drought-frost?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • REPUBLIC OF TÜRKİYE https://specialtycrops.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1_2022_Turkey.pdf?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • REPUBLIC OF TÜRKİYE https://specialtycrops.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1_2022_Turkey.pdf?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • Türkiye's agriculture exports edge up to $27.79 billion in 2025 - Türkiye Today https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai • Turkish agricultural exports clinch new record despite drought, frost | Daily Sabah https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkish-agricultural-exports-clinch-new-record-despite-drought-frost?utm_source=openai • Turkey Exports of edible fruits, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons - 2026 Data 2027 Forecast 1989-2025 Historical https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/exports/edible-fruits-nuts-peel-citrus-fruit-melons?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • REPUBLIC OF TÜRKİYE https://specialtycrops.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/1_2022_Turkey.pdf?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • IATA - Global Air Cargo Demand Achieved Record Volume in 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai • THE VOICE OF THE INC FOR THE GLOBAL NUT AND DRIED FRUIT INDUSTRY https://inc.nutfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Nutfruit_March2026_LowRes_links_.pdf?utm_source=openai • European Commission Directorate-General for Agri https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/isdb_results/isdb_rsg/factsheets/country_factsheets/agrifood_cfs/countries/agrifood-turkey_en.pdf?utm_source=openai