Research Intel
Hook Candidates
1) Immediate logistics squeeze (Santos/Paranaguá congestion + carrier blank sailings and spot-rate volatility in 2026) — HIS LOGISTIC’s exporter clients are at risk of missed laycans and demurrage. Hook: position Tridge Ark as a delivery channel that secures buyer commitments, alternative routings/ports, and operational coordination to reduce laycan exposure and demurrage risk.
2) Regulatory & cost shock (2026 OEA/AEO reforms + ANTT minimum‑freight enforcement + tax reform uncertainty) — mid‑tier exporters face new compliance burdens and inland cost inflation. Hook: offer Tridge Ark as a marketplace and managed‑delivery partner that helps compliant shippers aggregate demand, lock pre‑sales, and streamline documentation (reducing customs/clearance friction and the operational burden on HIS LOGISTIC).
## Company Profile
HIS LOGISTIC — Brazil-based freight forwarder (website: http://www.hislogistic.com). Contact: Melissa (Commercial). Public profile limited; likely provides ocean and inland freight forwarding, customs clearance support and door-to-door services for exporters and importers. Operates on Brazil’s main export corridors that feed Santos, Paranaguá and other bulk/container ports; client base likely includes agricultural exporters (soy, corn, sugar, coffee) and refrigerated/high-value food exporters given the market context.
## Pain Points
1) Port congestion and vessel waiting times at Santos and Paranaguá (multi‑day to multi‑week waits) create laycan risk and demurrage exposure for exporters — HIS LOGISTIC’s clients need alternative port/routing options and guaranteed loading windows.
2) Ocean capacity management by carriers (blank sailings, selective reefer allocation) produces space volatility and premium surcharges — clients struggle to secure reefer/equipment and pricing stability.
3) Rising and more rigid inland trucking costs due to ANTT minimum‑freight enforcement, plus OEA/AEO program changes and tax reform — increases cost-to-ship and compliance complexity, squeezing margins and creating administrative burden for forwarders and their exporter customers.
## Intel Summary
=== MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH ===
=== 1. [MARKET EVENTS] – BRAZIL EXPORTS 2026 (SOY, CORN, SUGAR, COFFEE) & PORT / SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS ===
**Coffee export volumes & dynamics (2025/26)**
- CEPEA reports that in Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee season (Jul 2025–Jun 2026), exports from Jul 2025 to Mar 2026 reached **35.0 million bags**, down from 36.3 million a year earlier (‑3.6% y/y). Revenue in the same period was **USD 11.43 bn**, up **2.9% y/y** due to higher prices. Shipments for the full 2025/26 season are projected at about **35 million bags**, the *lowest* volume since 2017/18. ([cepea.org.br](https://cepea.org.br/en/partial-exports-in-2025-26-hit-lowest-level-since-2022-23.aspx?utm_source=openai))
- The slowdown is attributed to stronger domestic consumption, lower availability of arabica in some regions, and tighter farmer selling at current price levels, despite a generally strong production outlook into 2026.
**Soybean export context / ports used (latest structured data)**
- USDA’s Brazil soybean transportation update (Q2 2025, but still the freshest detailed logistics report) shows:
- **64.9 MMT** of soybeans exported in the first six months of 2025, **22 MMT more** than the same period of 2024. ([ams.usda.gov](https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- Southern ports **Santos, Paranaguá, Rio Grande, São Francisco do Sul** “continued dominating” soybean exports. Santos remains a key outlet for China-bound cargoes. ([ams.usda.gov](https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- A 2026 Brazil safrinha corn report notes that **Paranaguá is the single most important port for corn exports**, while **Santos remains Brazil’s largest general cargo port**, handling roughly **60–65% of Brazil’s containerized/general cargo volume** (including major shares of soy complex, sugar and coffee exports). ([k2-capital.co](https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**Sugar & grains: current waiting times / congestion (late Apr 2026)**
- A weekly report on Brazilian sugar and grain terminals (29 April 2026) highlights: ([sugaronline.com](https://www.sugaronline.com/report/weekly-report-of-waiting-times-at-port-terminals-sugar-and-grains-29th-april-2026/?utm_source=openai))
- At **Santos** sugar terminals, typical **waiting times for vessels** are in the range of **7–15 days**, varying by terminal and shipping window.
- **Paranaguá** grain berths show waiting times typically **5–12 days**, with peaks above two weeks during bunching of soy and corn export programs.
- Northern arc ports (e.g., Barcarena/Vila do Conde, Itaqui) are reported as experiencing intermittent truck and barge queues during the peak soy export push, but with somewhat shorter average vessel waiting times than Santos/Paranaguá.
- These delays are broadly consistent with live congestion trackers for **Santos**, which in early April 2026 show **vessel turnaround times materially above global averages** and “moderate to high” congestion, with queuing and longer dwell especially at bulk berths. ([portcast.io](https://www.portcast.io/port-congestion/santos?utm_source=openai))
**Brazil coffee export logistics & Santos role**
- The Port of Santos remains the key outlet for Brazilian coffee: it handles a large share of global coffee exports; top export products from Santos are **soybeans, sugar, corn and pulp**, with coffee also highlighted as a core flow. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santos%2C_S%C3%A3o_Paulo?utm_source=openai))
- Any congestion at Santos in 2026 therefore directly impacts coffee shipment programs, particularly for main-destination Europe and North America, and can force some diversion to secondary ports (e.g., Rio de Janeiro) or rescheduling along the season curve.
**Disruptions and structural stress points (2026)**
- **Northern corridor grain stress:** Commentary in early 2026 notes **truck backlogs and slow loading** at Brazil’s northern river ports moving soybeans via barge (e.g. Santarém, Miritituba), with reports of trucks backing up and export flows temporarily slowed at the height of harvest. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/farming/comments/1rdh76h/brazil_soybean_terminal_seized_by_protesters_in/?utm_source=openai))
- **Container congestion & landside bottlenecks:** ANTAQ/World Bank‑referenced analysis (2026 study on demurrage and logistics competitiveness) points out Brazil remains “average” in logistics performance with persistent issues around:
- starting customs clearance,
- delays in container return,
- congestion in port access corridors. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/antaq/pt-br/central-de-conteudos/estudos-e-pesquisas-da-antaq-1/Estudo_1986535__rev_Melina__Relatorio_Final_do_Estudo_Regulacao_da_Sobre_Estadia_ing_ultima_versao___Copia.pdf/%40%40download/file?utm_source=openai))
**Implications for 2026 export programs**
- For **soy and corn**, 2026 export volumes are expected to stay very high (large 2025/26 crops and strong Chinese demand), putting ongoing pressure on capacity at **Santos and Paranaguá**, especially March–August (soy + early safrinha corn) and again Q4 (corn + sugar).
- For **sugar**, high global prices and Brazil’s strong cane crush keep export programs heavy; terminal waiting time data suggest allocation risk for prompt laycans, particularly in Santos. ([sugaronline.com](https://www.sugaronline.com/report/weekly-report-of-waiting-times-at-port-terminals-sugar-and-grains-29th-april-2026/?utm_source=openai))
- For **coffee**, the 2025/26 export volume is modestly lower, but expected record production forecasts for the **2026 harvest (~66.2 M bags)** imply that from late 2026 onward, export volumes and associated logistics needs could ramp significantly again, raising the importance of port fluidity and container availability. ([cepea.org.br](https://cepea.org.br/en/partial-exports-in-2025-26-hit-lowest-level-since-2022-23.aspx?utm_source=openai))
=== 2. [DEMAND SIGNALS] – OCEAN FREIGHT RATES & DEMAND (SOUTH AMERICA → NA / EU / ASIA, 2026) ===
**Global container rate backdrop (early–mid 2026)**
- A global 2026 container shipping outlook (AlixPartners, May 2026) shows: ([alixpartners.com](https://www.alixpartners.com/media/s12pyi2i/2026-container-shipping-outlook-sli01sig2026.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- Asia–North America and Asia–Europe spot rates are well below the crisis highs of 2021–22, but **still above pre‑COVID averages** due to residual supply chain disruption (e.g. Strait of Hormuz closure) and carrier capacity management.
- Industry demand growth for 2026 is projected to be **modest positive**, while fleet capacity continues to expand, keeping structural overcapacity risks in place.
**Carrier capacity discipline & blank sailings (2026)**
- Freightos weekly updates and market commentary through Q1–Q2 2026 emphasize that carriers are:
- **Using blank sailings aggressively** across main East–West trades to “artificially tighten space and prevent rates from sliding,” despite relatively weak underlying volume. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1sm7dvh/space_tightens_on_chinaus_routes_despite_weak/?utm_source=openai))
- Implementing general rate increases (GRIs) supported by pre‑Lunar New Year demand and then tapering, but still maintaining higher-than-expected rate floors via capacity withdrawals. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1qby5r8/freightos_weekly_update_january_13_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai))
**South America trade-lane implications (inferred from global signals)**
While most recent granular rate quotes are for Asia–NA/EU, the same carriers and alliances operate **South America–NA/EU/Asia** services. Given:
- continued **global overcapacity**,
- high bunker costs from **Hormuz and other geopolitical routing issues**, and
- explicit use of blank sailings to hold up FAK rates, ([alixpartners.com](https://www.alixpartners.com/media/s12pyi2i/2026-container-shipping-outlook-sli01sig2026.pdf?utm_source=openai))
it is highly likely that 2026 Brazil‑origin trades (both **dry and reefer**) are seeing:
1. **Volatile but elevated spot rates vs 2018–19 baselines**
- Even as global averages have come down from pandemic peaks, carriers seek to preserve yield on **South America–Europe and South America–Asia** by selectively cancelling sailings and managing reefer plug allocation.
- Historical pattern (noted in prior years and consistent with current carrier behavior) is that **South America exports often see disproportionate blank sailings** when carriers redeploy vessels to higher‑paying Asia lanes, tightening space for Brazilian exporters without a matching demand surge.
2. **Space tightening episodes despite soft demand**
- Reports in April 2026 for China–US show space tightening “despite weak underlying volume,” driven by carrier strategies rather than demand. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1sm7dvh/space_tightens_on_chinaus_routes_despite_weak/?utm_source=openai))
- By analogy, **Brazil–NA/EU** exporters (especially ag shippers reliant on fixed windows for harvest programs) can expect similar space squeezes and higher premium surcharges for guaranteed loading or reefer priority.
3. **Reefer demand and capacity balance**
- Strong Brazilian exports of meat, poultry, fruit and some high‑value ag products into **North America, Europe and Asia** keep **reefer utilization high**.
- With containers re‑positioned globally and carriers cautious on refrigerated capacity investments, reefer shippers in 2026 are likely facing:
- **Higher premium surcharges** for guaranteed power/space,
- Occasional **rolling of non‑premium reefer bookings**,
- Pressure to accept longer transit times or alternative routings to secure equipment—especially during southern‑hemisphere peak seasons (citrus, meat peak, etc.).
4. **Direction‑specific rate dynamics (inferred)**
- South America → **Europe**: likely relatively stronger demand (soy products, meat, coffee, sugar) and **higher utilization**, potentially closer to Asia–EU rate trajectories noted in Freightos reports (e.g. $2,700–3,000/FEU on Asia–EU as of Feb 2026). ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1r17vzw/freightos_weekly_update_february_10_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai))
- South America → **North America**: more fragmented, but still subject to capacity swings, especially on East Coast calls where congestion and US policy risks (tariffs) are relevant. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1r17vzw/freightos_weekly_update_february_10_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai))
- South America → **Asia**: structurally important for soy, corn, sugar flows; dry bulk dominates for these commodities, but containerized by‑products and high‑value foods will still feel reefer and box‑rate volatility.
**Key demand signals for Brazil-origin exporters (2026)**
- **Underlying cargo demand** (especially for grains, sugar, coffee, meat) remains robust, supported by:
- large Brazilian harvests (soy, corn, sugarcane, coffee), ([cepea.org.br](https://cepea.org.br/en/partial-exports-in-2025-26-hit-lowest-level-since-2022-23.aspx?utm_source=openai))
- diversified buyer base across **China, EU, Middle East, North Africa, and North America**.
- **Freight cost risk** is driven less by “volume overheating” and more by:
- carrier **capacity management (blank sailings, slow steaming)**,
- higher bunker/fuel costs,
- routing adjustments around conflict areas. ([alixpartners.com](https://www.alixpartners.com/media/s12pyi2i/2026-container-shipping-outlook-sli01sig2026.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- For Brazilian exporters planning 2026–27 programs, this points to:
- Need to **lock in contracts** or volume commitments where possible on key trades (e.g., Brazil–EU coffee/sugar; Brazil–NA meat/fruit) to reduce exposure to spot volatility;
- Building more **lead time and flexibility** into shipment windows to cope with blank sailings and occasional equipment shortages, especially at peak export months (Mar–Jun soy; Jul–Nov corn/sugar; Oct–Mar coffee peak).
=== 3. [PROBLEM FRAMING] – BRAZIL CUSTOMS, ANTAQ / CABOTAGE, TAX & REGULATORY CHANGES AFFECTING EXPORTERS (2026) ===
**Customs clearance & OEA (AEO) reforms – 2026**
- In **March 2026**, Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service issued **Normative Instruction No. 2,318/2026** and **Coana Portaria No. 187/2026**, overhauling the **Authorized Economic Operator (OEA/AEO) Program**: ([soutocorrea.com.br](https://www.soutocorrea.com.br/client-alerts/portaria-coana-no-187-2026-e-instrucao-normativa-rfb-no-2-318-2026-reformulam-o-programa-brasileiro-de-operador-economico-autorizado-oea/?utm_source=openai))
- Expanded list of eligible participants: importers, **exporters**, carriers, freight forwarders, maritime agencies, bonded terminal operators, port and airport operators, REDEx operators.
- Introduced a new **OEA-INTERMEDIÁRIO** level focused on export intermediaries, with requirements on customs risk management, tariff classification, valuation and origin compliance. ([trenchrossi.com](https://www.trenchrossi.com/en/legal-alerts/brazilian-federal-revenue-service-issues-new-rules-applicable-to-the-authorized-economic-operator-aeo-program-in-brief/?utm_source=openai))
- Stricter eligibility: taxpayers classified as **“habitual defaulters”** under Supplementary Law No. 225/2026 cannot join or remain in the program. ([trenchrossi.com](https://www.trenchrossi.com/en/legal-alerts/brazilian-federal-revenue-service-issues-new-rules-applicable-to-the-authorized-economic-operator-aeo-program-in-brief/?utm_source=openai))
- For compliant exporters, OEA status offers **faster customs clearance**, fewer inspections and better risk channeling, but the stricter criteria increase the **compliance burden** and may exclude some mid‑tier players.
**International customs cooperation impacting exporters**
- **Brazil–Mexico customs cooperation agreement** (Decree No. 12.862, 3 March 2026) entered into force, enabling: ([visahq.com](https://www.visahq.com/news/2026-03-03/br/brazil-mexico-customs-cooperation-pact-promises-faster-border-clearance-for-supply-chain-travellers/?utm_source=openai))
- Digital cargo manifests **24 hours before loading** and a **“green channel”** for AEO‑certified exporters, speeding up border crossings and terminal clearance in Mexico.
- “Customs Escort IDs” to fast‑track logistics staff, engineers and couriers moving between Brazilian and Mexican industrial hubs.
- This reduces clearance times and uncertainty for Brazil–Mexico trade, but **non‑AEO exporters** will not fully benefit and could become relatively less competitive.
**Tax reform & implications for logistics costs**
- Brazil’s ongoing **tax reform** (Complementary Laws 214/2025 and 227/2026) introduces the new **Imposto sobre Bens e Serviços (IBS)** and reorganizes indirect taxation, with transition starting in 2026 and extending to 2033. ([abti.org.br](https://www.abti.org.br/informacao/noticias/4663-lei-complementar-n-227-2026-esclarecimentos-sobre-impactos-no-transporte-rodoviario-internacional?utm_source=openai))
- Complementary Law 227/2026 (13 Jan 2026) sets up the IBS management committee (CGIBS) and adjusts rules applicable to transport and logistics services in cross‑border operations. ([abti.org.br](https://www.abti.org.br/informacao/noticias/4663-lei-complementar-n-227-2026-esclarecimentos-sobre-impactos-no-transporte-rodoviario-internacional?utm_source=openai))
- Exporters face **regime uncertainty** in the short run (e.g., how credits and rebates will work for inland freight and port services), although the end‑state is intended to reduce tax cascading and improve competitiveness.
**Domestic freight regulation & minimum freight price enforcement (2026)**
- In **March–April 2026**, ANTT published new rules to **tighten enforcement of Brazil’s minimum road freight table**: ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/secom/pt-br/acompanhe-a-secom/noticias/2026/03/antt-publica-regras-para-endurecer-fiscalizacao-do-preco-minimo-do-frete?utm_source=openai))
- Portaria SUROC No. 6/2026 makes the **CIOT (electronic freight contract code)** a mandatory “filter”: if a contracted freight rate is **below the legal minimum**, the CIOT is **blocked** and the transport operation “does not exist” from a regulatory standpoint. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/antt/pt-br/assuntos/ultimas-noticias/frete-irregular-e-barrado-antes-de-existir-antt-transforma-ciot-em-filtro-obrigatorio-e-reforca-o-cumprimento-do-piso-minimo?utm_source=openai))
- Additional March 25, 2026 rules strengthen supervision and penalties for non‑compliance with minimum freight prices. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/secom/pt-br/acompanhe-a-secom/noticias/2026/03/antt-publica-regras-para-endurecer-fiscalizacao-do-preco-minimo-do-frete?utm_source=openai))
- For exporters, this means:
- Upward pressure on **inland trucking costs** from farm to port, especially on long‑haul corridors feeding Santos and Paranaguá.
- Reduced flexibility to negotiate opportunistic low‑season freight rates; greater risk of **load cancellation** if contracted rates fall under the regulated floor.
**ANTAQ port oversight & cabotage framework evolution (2026)**
- As of 2026, ANTAQ has implemented a revised oversight model (PAF 2026) to **enforce port lease contracts and performance obligations** more actively: ([mayerbrown.com](https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2026/01/antaq-expands-oversight-to-include-enforcement-of-port-lease-contracts-paf-2026?utm_source=openai))
- Stronger monitoring of terminal service levels, investment commitments and tariff practices.
- Part of a broader regulatory quality program aligned with new guidelines in port and waterways regulation. ([regulacaoemnumeros-direitorio.fgv.br](https://regulacaoemnumeros-direitorio.fgv.br/sites/regulacaoemnumeros-direitorio.fgv.br/files/relatorios/30th_regulatory_bulletin_0.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- A March 2026 “Brazil Brief” for investors notes that regulatory initiatives around **cabotage shipping** (“BR do Mar” reforms and follow‑up rules) aim to: ([vieirarezende.com.br](https://www.vieirarezende.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Brazil-Brief-Mar-2026_ING.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- Encourage **domestic coastal shipping** as an alternative to road transport,
- Support consolidation and modernization of port infrastructure,
- Use tax and regulatory instruments to **boost logistics efficiency** and attract private investment.
- For exporters, this is a mixed picture:
- In the medium term, better‑regulated ports and expanded cabotage could reduce congestion and provide additional options (e.g., moving cargo by cabotage to less congested export ports).
- In the short run, compliance with evolving ANTAQ rules and port performance benchmarks may raise **documentation and operational requirements** and potentially **terminal tariffs**.
**Customs clearance delays & pain points (recent and structural)**
- A 2026 ANTAQ‑commissioned study on demurrage and logistics competitiveness identifies several persistent **bottlenecks**: ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/antaq/pt-br/central-de-conteudos/estudos-e-pesquisas-da-antaq-1/Estudo_1986535__rev_Melina__Relatorio_Final_do_Estudo_Regulacao_da_Sobre_Estadia_ing_ultima_versao___Copia.pdf/%40%40download/file?utm_source=openai))
- Delays at the **start of customs clearance**,
- Insufficient alignment of **“free time”** for containers and infrastructure capacity, causing demurrage/dispute issues,
- Queues and accidents in access corridors leading to increased truck dwell and missed vessel slots.
- Earlier (2025) disruptions – such as national tax audit actions that reportedly led to parcels stuck **>2 weeks** in export clearance – show the system’s vulnerability to administrative shocks. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/Acbuyofficial/comments/1kxa7r1?utm_source=openai))
- Although 2026 reforms (AEO modernization, international cooperation) are intended to **reduce clearance times** for trusted operators, non‑AEO exporters still experience:
- Unpredictable red‑channel assignments,
- Limited digitalization in some customs posts,
- Exposure to human‑resource constraints at Receita Federal and customs brokers.
**Mercosur–EU quotas & trade regime clarity (2026)**
- In **May 2026**, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC) issued Portaria Secex No. 490/2026, defining rules for implementing **Mercosur–EU trade agreement quotas**: ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/mdic/pt-br/assuntos/noticias/2026/maio/governo-define-regras-para-cotas-e-garante-aplicacao-do-acordo-mercosul-uniao-europeia?utm_source=openai))
- Objectives: increase predictability, **reduce bureaucracy**, and align Brazil with international best practices in quota administration.
- For ag‑exporters (meat, sugar, ethanol, grains within TRQs), clearer allocation and management rules could reduce regulatory uncertainty around quota access and associated documentation.
**Overall 2026 exporter logistics “pain points” in Brazil**
Combining the above, key framed problems for Brazil‑based ag exporters in 2026 are:
1. **Cost inflation and rigidity in inland logistics**
- Stricter **minimum road freight enforcement** removes flexibility to bargain down rates, increasing delivered‑at‑port costs and creating risk of non‑valid transport contracts when below the floor. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/secom/pt-br/acompanhe-a-secom/noticias/2026/03/antt-publica-regras-para-endurecer-fiscalizacao-do-preco-minimo-do-frete?utm_source=openai))
2. **Port congestion and wait‑time risk at main gateways (Santos, Paranaguá)**
- High export volumes of soy, corn, sugar and coffee create sustained congestion with **multi‑day to multi‑week vessel waiting times**, directly impacting laycan performance and demurrage exposure. ([portcast.io](https://www.portcast.io/port-congestion/santos?utm_source=openai))
3. **Uneven customs clearance performance**
- While OEA‑certified operators gain faster clearance, the majority still face **bureaucratic delays**, inconsistent risk management and exposure to systemic disruptions (e.g., audits, staff shortages). ([soutocorrea.com.br](https://www.soutocorrea.com.br/client-alerts/portaria-coana-no-187-2026-e-instrucao-normativa-rfb-no-2-318-2026-reformulam-o-programa-brasileiro-de-operador-economico-autorizado-oea/?utm_source=openai))
4. **Regulatory transition uncertainty (tax reform, cabotage, ANTAQ oversight)**
- Transition to IBS and evolving port/cabotage regulations create **planning uncertainty** for taxes on logistics services, port tariffs, and modal choices—complicating long‑term contract structures with overseas buyers. ([abti.org.br](https://www.abti.org.br/informacao/noticias/4663-lei-complementar-n-227-2026-esclarecimentos-sobre-impactos-no-transporte-rodoviario-internacional?utm_source=openai))
5. **Freight market volatility and capacity management by carriers**
- Even with modest demand, carriers’ use of **blank sailings and surcharges** leads to volatile ocean freight costs and intermittent space constraints on Brazil–NA/EU/Asia routes, especially for reefer cargoes. ([alixpartners.com](https://www.alixpartners.com/media/s12pyi2i/2026-container-shipping-outlook-sli01sig2026.pdf?utm_source=openai))
These factors together define the 2026 operating environment for Brazil’s soy, corn, sugar and coffee exporters: structurally strong demand and high volumes, but constrained by inland cost inflation, port capacity stress, and evolving—but still complex—customs and regulatory regimes.
Sources:
• Partial exports in 2025/26 hit lowest level since 2022/23 - Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics
https://cepea.org.br/en/partial-exports-in-2025-26-hit-lowest-level-since-2022-23.aspx?utm_source=openai
• Brazil Soybean Transportation
https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Brazil Soybean Transportation
https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai
• K2 CAPITAL | COMMODITY RESEARCH
https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai
• WEEKLY REPORT OF WAITING TIMES AT PORT TERMINALS SUGAR AND GRAINS – 29th April, 2026 - Sugaronline
https://www.sugaronline.com/report/weekly-report-of-waiting-times-at-port-terminals-sugar-and-grains-29th-april-2026/?utm_source=openai
• Port congestion at Santos | Live Delays & Vessel Wait Times
https://www.portcast.io/port-congestion/santos?utm_source=openai
• Santos, São Paulo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santos%2C_S%C3%A3o_Paulo?utm_source=openai
• Brazil Soybean Terminal Seized by Protesters in Harvest Season
https://www.reddit.com/r/farming/comments/1rdh76h/brazil_soybean_terminal_seized_by_protesters_in/?utm_source=openai
• Brazilian National
https://www.gov.br/antaq/pt-br/central-de-conteudos/estudos-e-pesquisas-da-antaq-1/Estudo_1986535__rev_Melina__Relatorio_Final_do_Estudo_Regulacao_da_Sobre_Estadia_ing_ultima_versao___Copia.pdf/%40%40download/file?utm_source=openai
• WEEKLY REPORT OF WAITING TIMES AT PORT TERMINALS SUGAR AND GRAINS – 29th April, 2026 - Sugaronline
https://www.sugaronline.com/report/weekly-report-of-waiting-times-at-port-terminals-sugar-and-grains-29th-april-2026/?utm_source=openai
• Partial exports in 2025/26 hit lowest level since 2022/23 - Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics
https://cepea.org.br/en/partial-exports-in-2025-26-hit-lowest-level-since-2022-23.aspx?utm_source=openai
• 2026 Container
https://www.alixpartners.com/media/s12pyi2i/2026-container-shipping-outlook-sli01sig2026.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Space Tightens on China-US Routes Despite Weak Underlying Volume
https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1sm7dvh/space_tightens_on_chinaus_routes_despite_weak/?utm_source=openai
• Freightos Weekly Update - January 13, 2026 | Excerpts: “Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 5% to $2,757/FEU.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 7% to $4,033/FEU.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1qby5r8/freightos_weekly_update_january_13_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai
• 2026 Container
https://www.alixpartners.com/media/s12pyi2i/2026-container-shipping-outlook-sli01sig2026.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Space Tightens on China-US Routes Despite Weak Underlying Volume
https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1sm7dvh/space_tightens_on_chinaus_routes_despite_weak/?utm_source=openai
• FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - February 10, 2026 | Excerpts: ”Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 21%.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 10%.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1r17vzw/freightos_weekly_update_february_10_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai
• FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - February 10, 2026 | Excerpts: ”Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 21%.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 10%.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1r17vzw/freightos_weekly_update_february_10_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai
• Partial exports in 2025/26 hit lowest level since 2022/23 - Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics
https://cepea.org.br/en/partial-exports-in-2025-26-hit-lowest-level-since-2022-23.aspx?utm_source=openai
• 2026 Container
https://www.alixpartners.com/media/s12pyi2i/2026-container-shipping-outlook-sli01sig2026.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Portaria Coana nº 187/2026 e Instrução Normativa RFB nº 2.318/2026 reformulam o Programa Brasileiro de Operador Econômico Autorizado (OEA) - Souto Correa Advogados
https://www.soutocorrea.com.br/client-alerts/portaria-coana-no-187-2026-e-instrucao-normativa-rfb-no-2-318-2026-reformulam-o-programa-brasileiro-de-operador-economico-autorizado-oea/?utm_source=openai
• Brazilian Federal Revenue Service issues new rules applicable to the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) Program - Trench Rossi Watanabe
https://www.trenchrossi.com/en/legal-alerts/brazilian-federal-revenue-service-issues-new-rules-applicable-to-the-authorized-economic-operator-aeo-program-in-brief/?utm_source=openai
• Brazilian Federal Revenue Service issues new rules applicable to the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) Program - Trench Rossi Watanabe
https://www.trenchrossi.com/en/legal-alerts/brazilian-federal-revenue-service-issues-new-rules-applicable-to-the-authorized-economic-operator-aeo-program-in-brief/?utm_source=openai
• Brazil–Mexico customs-cooperation pact promises faster border clearance for supply-chain travellers
https://www.visahq.com/news/2026-03-03/br/brazil-mexico-customs-cooperation-pact-promises-faster-border-clearance-for-supply-chain-travellers/?utm_source=openai
• ABTI - Lei Complementar nº 227/2026: esclarecimentos sobre impactos no transporte rodoviario internacional
https://www.abti.org.br/informacao/noticias/4663-lei-complementar-n-227-2026-esclarecimentos-sobre-impactos-no-transporte-rodoviario-internacional?utm_source=openai
• ABTI - Lei Complementar nº 227/2026: esclarecimentos sobre impactos no transporte rodoviario internacional
https://www.abti.org.br/informacao/noticias/4663-lei-complementar-n-227-2026-esclarecimentos-sobre-impactos-no-transporte-rodoviario-internacional?utm_source=openai
• ANTT publica regras para endurecer fiscalização do preço mínimo do frete — Secretaria de Comunicação Social
https://www.gov.br/secom/pt-br/acompanhe-a-secom/noticias/2026/03/antt-publica-regras-para-endurecer-fiscalizacao-do-preco-minimo-do-frete?utm_source=openai
• Frete irregular é barrado antes de existir: ANTT transforma CIOT em filtro obrigatório e reforça o cumprimento do piso mínimo — Agência Nacional de Transportes Terrestres - ANTT
https://www.gov.br/antt/pt-br/assuntos/ultimas-noticias/frete-irregular-e-barrado-antes-de-existir-antt-transforma-ciot-em-filtro-obrigatorio-e-reforca-o-cumprimento-do-piso-minimo?utm_source=openai
• ANTT publica regras para endurecer fiscalização do preço mínimo do frete — Secretaria de Comunicação Social
https://www.gov.br/secom/pt-br/acompanhe-a-secom/noticias/2026/03/antt-publicai