## Company Profile DSV AIR & SEA LTD. (Thailand) — local subsidiary of global DSV A/S. Provides full-service freight forwarding (air and sea), export documentation and customs support, door-to-door and OOG/reefer handling, and logistics solutions for Thai exporters (manufacturing, electronics, automotive components, food/agri). Operates at scale as part of DSV’s global network, servicing major export hubs in Bangkok/Laem Chabang and supporting time‑sensitive and high‑value cargo flows to EU, US, ASEAN and other markets. ## Pain Points 1) Escalation of transit delays, reroutings and elevated bunker surcharges: DSV’s export customers (especially electronics, auto parts, and reefer seafood) face longer transit times, schedule uncertainty and higher all‑in freight costs, increasing escalations and customer complaints that fall to export operations. 2) Destination diversification and contract risk: China+1 and the push into ASEAN, India, Middle East and Latin America mean exporters need rapid buyer matching and new-market introductions; DSV must support clients shifting routes and negotiating contracts while preserving margin and service levels. 3) Regulatory & compliance burdens in 2026: EU CBAM charging phase and tighter SPS/traceability requirements (EU/US) increase paperwork, MRV needs and technical compliance for exporters (metals, food, seafood). These add to operational friction and escalation workload for export managers. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] – Thailand export shifts 2026: electronics, auto parts, food; nearshoring from China to ASEAN === **Overall export momentum & composition (early 2026)** - Thailand’s exports have been in a strong upswing into 2026: - January 2026 exports reached **US$31.6 bn**, up **24.4% YoY**, the highest in 4 years and 19th consecutive month of growth. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai)) - February 2026 exports rose **9.9% YoY** to **US$29.4 bn**, followed by **18.7% YoY** growth in March 2026 to a record **US$35.2 bn**. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-yoy?utm_source=openai)) - Structure of exports (by value, 2026 YTD): manufactured goods account for **~86%** of total exports; key categories are **electronics (~14%)**, **vehicles (~13%)**, **machinery (7.5%)**, and **foodstuffs (~7.5%)**. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-yoy?utm_source=openai)) **Electronics and AI-related demand** - The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) attributes the January 2026 surge mainly to **strong global electronics demand linked to AI and digital infrastructure investment**, with notable growth in integrated circuits, computer parts and related components. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai)) - Export data from the Ministry of Commerce/TPSO show: - Electronics and electrical appliances were among the **top positive contributors** to export growth in January–March 2026, with double‑digit expansion to key markets (US, EU, ASEAN, East Asia). ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai)) - Structural context: electronics already represent close to **one‑fifth of Thailand’s merchandise exports** when combined with machinery, computers and components, and are benefitting from global AI server, data‑center and EV electronics demand. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-yoy?utm_source=openai)) **Automobiles and auto parts** - The Fiscal Policy Office highlights **automobiles and auto parts** as another major driver of the January 2026 export jump, alongside electronics. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40063034?utm_source=openai)) - The Fiscal Policy Office highlights **automobiles and auto parts** as another major driver of the January 2026 export jump, alongside electronics. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40063034?utm_source=openai)) - Thailand’s economy profile for 2026 shows the auto sector (vehicles and parts) contributes roughly **11–12% of industrial output** and about **12–13% of exports**, underpinned by ICE and growing EV/HEV production. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand?utm_source=openai)) - Rising regional and global EV penetration (EV sales in Thailand up **~80% in 2025**, per FTI) is helping secure new investment and export contracts for components such as batteries, e‑axles and power electronics, which increasingly feed supply chains across ASEAN and to Europe. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1qqjqx1/thailand_ev_sales_jump_80_in_2025_lifting_auto/?utm_source=openai)) **Agricultural and food exports: seafood, rice, palm oil & processed food** - Despite Thailand’s reputation as a food export hub, early‑2026 data show **short‑term softness in bulk agro**: - In January 2026, **agricultural and agro‑industrial exports fell 1.8% YoY** (agricultural –1.8%, agro‑industrial –1.7%), even as overall exports surged. ([uploads.tpso.go.th](https://uploads.tpso.go.th/editor/pdf/1771817623_f9ee1d5f272b581792e8.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Within this, some items still grew: pet food (+8.2%), canned/processed fruits (+14.7%), and **animal & vegetable oils and fats** showed positive growth, which would include **palm oil‑based products**. ([uploads.tpso.go.th](https://uploads.tpso.go.th/editor/pdf/1771817623_f9ee1d5f272b581792e8.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Rice and seafood: - Official detailed commodity splits for 1Q 2026 are not fully published yet, but TPSO notes **fresh and processed fruit, shrimp and pet food** as continuing growth performers, implying resilience in higher‑value food segments, including processed seafood. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40063034?utm_source=openai)) - Directionally, Thailand is **moving up the value chain** from bulk commodities (raw rice, crude palm) toward **processed foods, pet food, functional ingredients and branded products**, in line with its “Kitchen of the World” strategy and efforts to diversify into India, Middle East and Latin America. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai)) **Nearshoring / China+1 shifts into ASEAN and implications for Thailand** - Thailand continues to position itself as a **regional manufacturing hub** for autos, electronics, and food processing, benefitting from China+1 relocation into ASEAN: - Regional industry coverage (e.g., the Intelligent Manufacturing Expo 2026 in Bangkok) highlights **automotive, electronics, rubber & plastics, and food processing** as key investment targets in Thailand, reinforcing its role in diversified supply chains. ([zh.wikipedia.org](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_Manufacturing_Expo?utm_source=openai)) - Ongoing foreign direct investment (FDI) from Japanese, Chinese and Western firms into Thai EV, battery, electronics and food‑processing facilities is partly driven by risk diversification away from China (tariffs, geopolitics) and by leveraging ASEAN trade agreements like RCEP. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand?utm_source=openai)) - Trade‑flow evidence: - ASEAN and “new markets” (India, Middle East, Latin America) are flagged by TPSO and the FPO as **priority growth markets** for Thai exports in 2026, complementing traditional markets (US, EU, China). ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai)) - Electronics and auto parts production originally concentrated in China is increasingly being duplicated or expanded in Thailand and neighboring ASEAN states to serve US and EU customers under more diversified risk profiles. This is evident in strong growth of electronics and auto exports despite relatively soft global conditions. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai)) **Destination shifts & portfolio risk** - 2026 data so far show: - **US and EU** demand remains important but is moderated by new regulatory risks (CBAM, green standards). - **ASEAN intra‑regional trade** and shipments to **India, Middle East, Latin America** are growing faster, particularly for food and mid‑tech manufacturing, indicating **incremental rebalancing away from over‑reliance on China and traditional Western markets**. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for export volumes & product mix** - Electronics and auto parts: volumes and values likely to keep expanding in 2026, supported by AI hardware and EV supply chains; share of total exports could edge higher from the current **~27–30%** combined (electronics + vehicles). ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-yoy?utm_source=openai)) - Food: bulk commodities (rice, palm oil) may show **flat to modest growth** near term due to price normalization and competition, while **processed foods, seafood value‑added and pet food** continue to gain share. ([uploads.tpso.go.th](https://uploads.tpso.go.th/editor/pdf/1771817623_f9ee1d5f272b581792e8.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Market Events** ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [DEMAND SIGNALS] – SEA ocean freight & container rates 2026; Red Sea disruption aftermath for Thailand–EU/US === **Baseline 2026 container‑rate environment** - S&P Global’s 2026 Ocean Freight Outlook expects **overall softer rates versus 2024–2025 peaks**, but with continued volatility driven by geopolitics (Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz), fuel prices and capacity management. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - Asia–Europe lanes entered 2026 with **“seasonal firmness”**; on 9 January 2026: - **PCR1 (North Asia–North Europe)** and **PCR11 (North Asia–UK)** were at **US$2,700/FEU**, up from late‑2025 levels due to general rate increases and lingering diversion‑related costs from the Red Sea crisis. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) **Lingering Red Sea & new Gulf/Hormuz disruptions – transit time & cost effects** - The Red Sea crisis (starting late 2023) led major carriers to divert Asia–Europe services around the Cape of Good Hope, adding **~10–14 days** to transit time and raising bunker costs; most large carriers were still **largely avoiding the Red Sea** as of early 2024, and this pattern underlies the **elevated cost baseline** for 2026. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - In 2026, the **Strait of Hormuz / Iran war fuel crisis** has further pushed up fuel and energy prices, particularly affecting Asian importers including Thailand, and sustaining higher bunker surcharges and all‑in freight rates despite otherwise soft demand. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_fuel_crisis?utm_source=openai)) **Asia–Europe rate levels & trends (including Thailand)** - Asia–Europe spot rates in early 2026: - S&P Global notes early‑January 2026 Asia–Europe rates around **US$2,600–2,700/FEU** to North Europe and **~US$3,700/FEU** to the Mediterranean, up **~6–10% WoW** at that point as carriers attempted GRIs in the post‑Lunar New Year period. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - Subsequent weekly data (Freightos FBX, March–May 2026) indicate **Asia–Europe rates ~15% higher YoY** and **>50% above the last low‑season trough (Oct 2025)**, implying that structural extra costs from diversions and fuel are still embedded. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - For Thai exporters specifically (e.g., Laem Chabang / Bangkok to North Europe): - Carriers and Chinese‑language trade reports in March 2026 note **planned rate hikes for Thailand services**, with guidance that **20’ containers to Europe could exceed US$2,000 and 40’ HQ around US$4,000+** as of late March 2026, with tight space on re‑routed vessels. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/supplychain/comments/1rrlspt/china_maritime_weekly_report_red_sea_shipping/?utm_source=openai)) - Transit time effects: - Continued avoidance of the Red Sea means **Thailand–EU transit times are still extended by roughly 1.5–2 weeks** compared with pre‑crisis direct Suez routings, especially via feeder connections through Singapore or other SEA hubs; this is driving earlier peak‑season ordering by EU importers (orders pulled forward before Golden Week to account for longer transits). ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) **Asia–US rate levels & trends (relevant for Thailand–US)** - Asia–US West Coast (FBX01) and East Coast (FBX03) benchmarks show: - March 10, 2026: Asia–USWC **up 10% WoW**, Asia–USEC **down 9% WoW**, reflecting short‑term volatility and shifting capacity. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1rq4z0k/freightos_weekly_update_march_10_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - April 28, 2026: Asia–USWC **up 1%**, Asia–USEC **up 3%**; commentary attributes **elevated baseline rates to increased fuel costs from the Strait of Hormuz closure**, even though seasonal demand is low. Asia–Europe lanes up >15% YoY. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - May 19, 2026: Asia–USWC and Asia–USEC both **down 1% WoW**, but from a still‑elevated base as peak season approaches; capacity additions are partly offsetting fuel‑driven cost pressure. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1ti4x5c/freightos_weekly_update_may_19_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - For Thailand–US, spot levels typically track broader **Southeast Asia and North Asia indices** with: - Thailand–USWC all‑in spot rates in 2Q 2026 broadly in the **US$2,000–2,500/FEU** range, and Thailand–USEC **US$3,000–3,800/FEU**, depending on service and surcharges (inferred from regional benchmarks and carrier guidance). ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **Operational impacts – transit times and scheduling** - Reroutings and hub congestion: - 2026 commentary notes **congestion at Far East trans‑shipment hubs** as some volumes for the Gulf and Middle East are re‑routed or stuck, causing **knock‑on delays** in feeder connections; however, congestion is **less severe than at the start of the Red Sea crisis** because volumes to those destinations are smaller and carriers have capped bookings. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1rq4z0k/freightos_weekly_update_march_10_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - For Thai exporters to Europe: - Expect **2–3 days additional risk buffer** beyond the 10–14 days structural extension when planning lead times, particularly for reefer and just‑in‑time shipments. Importers in Europe are reportedly **advancing peak‑season orders** to ensure goods arrive before key retail seasons despite longer transits. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1ti4x5c/freightos_weekly_update_may_19_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - For Thai exporters to US: - Red Sea and Suez issues are less directly relevant; key variables are **fuel prices, Panama Canal conditions and US port labor/capacity**. 2026 commentary suggests that, despite some capacity‑driven downward pressure, **fuel‑elevated baselines** keep rates above pre‑Red Sea averages while **transit times remain close to normal seasonal ranges**. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **Demand signals for Thai export sectors** - Electronics & auto parts: continued **solid booking demand** on Asia–EU and Asia–US lanes, with carriers using GRIs where space tightens; high‑value, time‑sensitive cargo (electronics, auto components) is less price‑elastic, helping support rate floors on Thai outbound. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - Food (seafood, rice, palm & processed): - For chilled/frozen seafood and higher‑value processed foods, shippers are **more exposed to transit‑time risk** due to extended routes and reefer surcharges; many are shifting to **long‑term contracts** or mixed contract/spot strategies to manage volatility. - Bulk rice and palm oil exports tend to be **more freight‑cost sensitive**, and elevated bunker‑linked charges can erode margins to the Middle East and some EU buyers, pushing Thai exporters to focus on premium segments and closer markets (ASEAN, East Asia, South Asia) where freight cost per tonne is lower. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Demand Signals** ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [TIMING SIGNALS] – 2026 trade policy for Thai exporters: EU CBAM, RCEP, tariffs/regulation, SPS for food === **EU CBAM – transition to full charging phase in 2026** - CBAM basics and timing: - CBAM covers **iron and steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen** imports into the EU. - **Transitional reporting phase** began **1 October 2023** (importers report embedded emissions, no payments). - **Full implementation with carbon payments** started **1 January 2026**; EU importers must now buy CBAM certificates reflecting the EU ETS carbon price. ([taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en?utm_source=openai)) - Exposure of Thai exports: - World Bank and Thai central‑bank‑linked research show Thailand’s **direct exposure is concentrated in iron & steel and aluminum**, with limited exports of other CBAM‑covered products to the EU. ([documents1.worldbank.org](https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099100425072015607/pdf/P507208-7864285c-5c22-470d-87f4-edf65f002642.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Kasikorn Research estimates that once CBAM enters its charging phase in 2026, the **initial impact could equal ~3.8% of Thailand’s exports to the EU**, or **around THB 28 bn** (roughly US$800 mn), mainly in steel and aluminum, considering higher export costs. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/economy/40060732?utm_source=openai)) - A Thai government note indicates exports of CBAM‑covered goods to the EU **had already declined in value since 2020**, suggesting some pre‑emptive adjustment even before payments were due. ([oie.go.th](https://www.oie.go.th/assets/portals/1/files/public_relation_news/OIE_Reports_BCG_Model.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Implications & timing signals for exporters: - From **2026 onward**, Thai producers of steel/aluminum selling to the EU must either: - **Reduce embedded emissions** (energy efficiency, cleaner fuels, scrap use) and improve MRV systems to lower CBAM costs; or - Accept **reduced margins** and/or **pass‑through price increases** that could erode competitiveness versus EU or low‑emission suppliers. - Thai authorities (Ministry of Commerce, OIE) are urging exporters to **accelerate sustainable production** and prepare for stricter EU climate‑related requirements, in parallel with a Thailand–EU FTA. ([thailand.go.th](https://www.thailand.go.th/issue-focus-detail/thai-cbam-exports-to-eu-continue-to-grow-businesses-urged-to-accelerate-sustainability-efforts?utm_source=openai)) **Thailand–EU FTA negotiations (targeting 2026 conclusion)** - Thailand and the EU have been negotiating a comprehensive FTA, with **round 6 concluded June 2025** and both sides expressing the intention to reach an agreement **around 2026**. ([policy.trade.ec.europa.eu](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/thailand/eu-thailand-agreement/documents_en?utm_source=openai)) - Key negotiation themes include: - **Tariff liberalization** on industrial and agricultural products. - **Green and sustainability provisions**, including references to CBAM, deforestation‑free supply chains, and higher environmental standards. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062624?utm_source=openai)) - Timing signal: if a deal is concluded and ratified on schedule, **preferential tariffs could start phasing in from 2027–2028**, improving market access for Thai electronics, autos, and higher‑value food exports, but likely **conditioning access on compliance with stricter SPS and sustainability rules**. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062624?utm_source=openai)) **RCEP and regional trade architecture** - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), already in force for Thailand, is **gradually reducing tariffs** and simplifying rules of origin among ASEAN, China, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand. - For 2026: - Many tariff lines on **auto parts, electronics components, processed foods and agricultural inputs** see further **step‑down in MFN‑equivalent rates** among RCEP partners, which supports deeper integration of **“China+1” supply chains** in Thailand and ASEAN. - Thai exporters benefit from **cumulation rules** (easier to qualify for origin when sourcing inputs from multiple RCEP members). ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand?utm_source=openai)) - Timing signal: RCEP tariff‑reduction schedules are **pre‑announced**, so 2026–2028 provides a relatively predictable window in which **Thai manufacturers can secure long‑term sourcing and export contracts** within the region, especially for electronics, auto parts and intermediate food ingredients. **Other tariff / regulatory shifts relevant to Thai exporters in 2026** - US tariff and trade dynamics: - Thai officials note that **shifts in US tariffs on Chinese goods** (renewed or expanded duties) present both **opportunities and risks**: early upside for Thai exporters that can substitute for Chinese supply, but also **greater competition from other ASEAN exporters** benefitting from the same diversion. ([nationthailand.com](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai)) - Fuel and logistics‑related costs: - The 2026 Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis has raised crude prices, which in turn **lift bunker surcharges and effective delivered costs** for Thai exports to Europe and the US, especially heavy products (steel, rice, palm oil, canned goods). This is not a formal tariff, but acts as a **quasi‑tax on long‑haul trade**. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_fuel_crisis?utm_source=openai)) **Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) & food‑related regulations (2026 emphasis)** - EU: - The EU continues to tighten **SPS and food safety standards**, including pesticide residue limits, antibiotics in aquaculture, and pathogen controls in meat/seafood. Thai agencies (OIE, Ministry of Agriculture) regularly issue compliance guidance to exporters; non‑compliance can result in **border rejections or temporary bans**. ([oie.go.th](https://www.oie.go.th/assets/portals/1/files/public_relation_news/OIE_Reports_BCG_Model.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Alongside CBAM, EU sustainability initiatives (deforestation‑free supply chains, Farm‑to‑Fork) are increasingly linked to **palm‑based ingredients, rubber, and some food commodities**, which may affect Thai palm oil‑derived products and processed foods if traceability and land‑use data are insufficient. ([taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en?utm_source=openai)) - US: - For seafood, the US maintains strict requirements under the **Seafood Import Monitoring Program (SIMP)** and FSMA rules; Thai shrimp and canned seafood exporters must maintain robust traceability and HACCP systems. - Increased focus on **forced labor and IUU fishing** creates additional compliance risk for Thai fisheries and seafood processors. (Recent US actions have targeted several countries; Thailand has worked to upgrade its legal framework to avoid sanctions.) ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand?utm_source=openai)) - SPS issues in key Asian markets: - Regional partners (China, ASEAN members, Japan, Korea) maintain and periodically update **SPS protocols for Thai fruit, rice, poultry and seafood**, including pest‑ and disease‑specific conditions. Although 2026 has not seen a headline‑grabbing new ban, exporters need to monitor **any tightening on pesticide MRLs or disease outbreaks (e.g., avian influenza, shrimp diseases)** that can trigger temporary import suspensions. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand?utm_source=openai)) **What this means for timing/strategic decisions in 2026** - **2026–2027 is a critical adjustment window** for Thai exporters in CBAM‑affected sectors (steel, aluminum) to: - Invest in **emissions measurement and reduction**. - Negotiate pricing and responsibility for CBAM certificates with EU buyers. - For food exporters, 2026 is a period to **consolidate compliance** with evolving EU/US standards and leverage RCEP and regional deals to **diversify destination risk** into Asia and the Middle East, where SPS requirements, though strict, may be more familiar and sometimes less climate‑linked. - For electronics/auto parts, predictable RCEP tariff cuts and robust AI/EV demand suggest **front‑loading capacity expansion and contract negotiations during 2026–2028**, while monitoring EU FTA progress and any new US industrial policies that could alter origin preferences. **Sources – Timing Signals** ([taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • Exports jump 24.4% in January on AI-driven electronics demand: TPSO https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai • Thailand Exports YoY https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-yoy?utm_source=openai • Thailand Exports YoY https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-yoy?utm_source=openai • Exports jump 24.4% in January on AI-driven electronics demand: TPSO https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai • Exports jump 24.4% in January on AI-driven electronics demand: TPSO https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai • Thailand Exports YoY https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-yoy?utm_source=openai • Thai exports hit four-year high as January shipments jump 24.4% https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40063034?utm_source=openai • Economy of Thailand https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand?utm_source=openai • Thailand: EV sales jump 80% in 2025, lifting auto market https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1qqjqx1/thailand_ev_sales_jump_80_in_2025_lifting_auto/?utm_source=openai • Thai International Trade in January 2026 https://uploads.tpso.go.th/editor/pdf/1771817623_f9ee1d5f272b581792e8.pdf?utm_source=openai • Thai International Trade in January 2026 https://uploads.tpso.go.th/editor/pdf/1771817623_f9ee1d5f272b581792e8.pdf?utm_source=openai • Thai exports hit four-year high as January shipments jump 24.4% https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40063034?utm_source=openai • Exports jump 24.4% in January on AI-driven electronics demand: TPSO https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai • Exports jump 24.4% in January on AI-driven electronics demand: TPSO https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai • Exports jump 24.4% in January on AI-driven electronics demand: TPSO https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai • Thailand Exports YoY https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports-yoy?utm_source=openai • Thai International Trade in January 2026 https://uploads.tpso.go.th/editor/pdf/1771817623_f9ee1d5f272b581792e8.pdf?utm_source=openai • Exports jump 24.4% in January on AI-driven electronics demand: TPSO https://www.nationthailand.com/business/trade/40062870?utm_source=openai • 2026 Ocean Freight Outlook: Softer Rates Ahead, but Volatility Isn’t Going Anywhere | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai • CONTAINERS QUARTERLY: Asia-Europe enters 2026 with seasonal firmness, structural uncertainty | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai • Red Sea crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis?utm_source=openai • 2026 Iran war fuel crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_fuel_crisis?utm_source=openai • CONTAINERS QUARTERLY: Asia-Europe enters 2026 with seasonal firmness, structural uncertainty | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai