## Company Profile Serlog Servicios Logísticos SA — Argentina-based freight forwarder (website: serlogsa.com). Offers freight forwarding, customs clearance, inland transport, warehousing and multimodal logistics for exporters and importers. Likely serves agricultural shippers and agribusiness clients that move grain, oilseed products, and bulk/packed foodstuffs through Argentina’s main export gateways (Gran Rosario, Bahía Blanca, Buenos Aires). Scale not publicly specified on the website; typical client mix includes cooperatives, crushers/processors, traders and exporters needing export documentation, port scheduling and vessel booking support. ## Pain Points 1) Capacity & scheduling stress during the 2025/26 record crop: clients will need rapid buyer matching, freight locking and port/laycan coordination to avoid demurrage and inventory build‑up. 2) Regulatory complexity & tax volatility: shifting export duties and possible ad‑hoc controls create cashflow and pricing risk for shippers; they need a channel that can translate policy changes into execution (contracts, declarations, ROEs). 3) Market access and buyer diversification: with the EU‑Mercosur provisional effect, clients must meet sanitary/sustainability standards and secure vetted buyers — forwarders often lack integrated buyer‑discovery and contract execution capabilities that exporters need. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET_DYNAMICS] === Argentina agricultural exports 2025/26–2026 (soy, wheat, maize) and role of Rosario & Bahía Blanca **Overall 2025/26 grain & by‑product export volumes** - The Rosario Board of Trade (BCR) projects a historic grain and by‑products export season in 2025/26, with: - Total grain + by‑products exports: **~105–110 million tonnes** (mt), surpassing the previous record (~104 mt in 2018/19). ([agrolatam.com](https://www.agrolatam.com/news/grain-exports-record-2025-corn-soy-soymeal/?utm_source=openai)) - Export value for 2026 estimated around **US$36.8 billion**, about **US$0.6 billion above** the prior campaign. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/record-grain-production-would-generate-us-36-hxmeiz?utm_source=openai)) - BCR estimates **total grain production of about 155–158 mt** in 2025/26, up roughly **14% year‑on‑year**, driving export growth despite weaker world prices. ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/25153/el-ingreso-de-granos-a-puertos-opera-en-niveles-maximos-en-la-campana-2025-26/?utm_source=openai)) **Wheat (2025/26 marketing year)** - 2025/26 wheat harvest: - Data Portuaria/BCR reports **record wheat production of ~27.7 mt**. ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/24755/el-trigo-argentino-alcanza-una-produccion-record-de-27-7-millones-de-toneladas-y-proyecta-exportaciones-por-17-mt/?utm_source=openai)) - USDA/ERS refers to Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop as “record‑large,” with production around **24–28 mt** range depending on source, confirming a new high versus prior years. ([feedandgrain.com](https://www.feedandgrain.com/business-markets/commodities/news/15819708/argentina-wheat-exports-surge-to-record-195-million-tons-as-global-trade-rebounds?utm_source=openai)) - Exports: - USDA ERS Wheat Outlook (Feb 12, 2026) forecasts **wheat exports at 19.5 mt in 2025/26**, an **8.6 mt year‑on‑year increase**, setting a new export record. ([feedandgrain.com](https://www.feedandgrain.com/business-markets/commodities/news/15819708/argentina-wheat-exports-surge-to-record-195-million-tons-as-global-trade-rebounds?utm_source=openai)) - Data Portuaria, summarizing GEA‑BCR, notes projected wheat exports around **17 mt**, with the **south Buenos Aires ports (Bahía Blanca/Quequén cluster) ~4.5 mt** and **northern region ports ~0.5 mt**; balance moves via Greater Rosario. ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/24755/el-trigo-argentino-alcanza-una-produccion-record-de-27-7-millones-de-toneladas-y-proyecta-exportaciones-por-17-mt/?utm_source=openai)) - Early 2025/26 wheat export performance: - BCR/NABSA‑based port tracking shows **9.4 mt of wheat exported in just under three months** (Dec 2025–mid‑Feb 2026), highlighting exceptionally strong early shipments. ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/24771/argentina-exporto-casi-10-millones-de-toneladas-de-trigo-en-la-campana-2025-26/?utm_source=openai)) **Maize (corn)** - Production & exports: - FAO GIEWS (country brief, early 2026) indicates: - 2025 maize crop harvested in early 2025; 2026 crop planting largely completed in central areas by early 2026. ([fao.org](https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=ARG&lang=es&utm_source=openai)) - 2025/26 maize exports forecast around **33 mt**, about **8% below 2024/25** and **slightly below the recent average**, though still making maize the **largest single export cereal**. ([fao.org](https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=ARG&lang=es&utm_source=openai)) - S&P Global, citing USDA FAS, puts 2025/26 corn output around **53 mt** (about **6% higher** year‑on‑year), with exportable supplies boosted by lower export taxes (see policy section). ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/072825-argentinas-new-export-duties-offer-relief-to-agricultural-supplies-sources?utm_source=openai)) **Soybeans and soy products** - Production: - GrainPriceNews summary of April 2026 estimates (USDA attaché, Rosario exchange) for 2025/26 soybeans: - Production ~**48 mt** (Rosario & USDA both near 48 mt). ([grainpricenews.com](https://grainpricenews.com/2026/04/15/argentina-soybeans-2025-26/?utm_source=openai)) - USDA FAS projection cited by S&P Global: **48.5 mt soy output in 2025/26**, **down ~2.8%** year‑on‑year (moderate acreage vs corn & wheat). ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/072825-argentinas-new-export-duties-offer-relief-to-agricultural-supplies-sources?utm_source=openai)) - Export mix & volumes: - Argentina remains structurally a **soymeal and soyoil exporter rather than raw bean shipper**. Based on Rosario/BCR and trade press syntheses, 2025/26 projections generally cluster in the following ranges (exact official split varies by source and is updated monthly): - Soybeans: on the order of **5–7 mt** of whole beans exported. - Soymeal: around **25–30 mt** soymeal exports. - Soyoil: around **5–6 mt** soyoil exports. ([agrolatam.com](https://www.agrolatam.com/news/grain-exports-record-2025-corn-soy-soymeal/?utm_source=openai)) - BCR stresses that in 2025/26, **soy products plus corn are the main contributors** to the forecast 105+ mt of grain and by‑product exports. ([agrolatam.com](https://www.agrolatam.com/news/grain-exports-record-2025-corn-soy-soymeal/?utm_source=openai)) **Role of Rosario, Bahía Blanca and other key ports** - Grain inflows and port utilization: - Data Portuaria (Mar 13, 2026) notes that **grain inflows to ports are at “maximum levels” in the 2025/26 campaign**, driven by the 158‑mt crop estimate and aggressive forward selling. This particularly references the **Gran Rosario port complex** (Up‑river Paraná terminals), which handles the bulk of soy complex and corn exports. ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/25153/el-ingreso-de-granos-a-puertos-opera-en-niveles-maximos-en-la-campana-2025-26/?utm_source=openai)) - For wheat, Data Portuaria’s breakdown for the 2025/26 campaign: - **Southern Buenos Aires ports (Bahía Blanca + Necochea/Quequén)**: expected to export **~4.5 mt of wheat**. - **Northern region ports** (Chaco, Santa Fe outside Gran Rosario): **~0.5 mt**. - Implicitly, **~12–14 mt of wheat** flows via the **Gran Rosario hub**, given total projected wheat exports of 17–19.5 mt. ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/24771/argentina-exporto-casi-10-millones-de-toneladas-de-trigo-en-la-campana-2025-26/?utm_source=openai)) - Port specialization (2025/26 pattern): - **Gran Rosario**: dominates **soymeal, soyoil and corn** shipments; most crushing capacity and major export elevators are located here. - **Bahía Blanca**: key for **wheat, barley and some corn**, serving southern Pampas production and deep‑draft bulkers to MENA, Asia, and Europe; Data Portuaria explicitly highlights its **4.5‑mt share of wheat exports** for 2025/26. ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/24755/el-trigo-argentino-alcanza-una-produccion-record-de-27-7-millones-de-toneladas-y-proyecta-exportaciones-por-17-mt/?utm_source=openai)) **Price environment** - FAO GIEWS reports that: - Domestic wheat prices, after weakening at harvest (Oct–Nov 2025), **rose again in Dec 2025** on strong export demand from **Brazil, Indonesia, and mainland China**, leaving wheat prices **above year‑earlier levels** despite large crop size. ([fao.org](https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=ARG&lang=es&utm_source=openai)) - USDA ERS February 2026 outlook highlights: - Global wheat prices remain under pressure from large exporter supplies, including Argentina, but competitiveness of Argentine wheat has improved vs U.S./EU in many destinations. ([feedandgrain.com](https://www.feedandgrain.com/business-markets/commodities/news/15819708/argentina-wheat-exports-surge-to-record-195-million-tons-as-global-trade-rebounds?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for 2026 trade flows** - With **record or near‑record wheat and total grain output**, plus strong corn and soybean complex shipments, Argentina is positioned in 2026 to: - Restore its role as a **top‑3 global exporter** of wheat and corn, and the **leading soymeal exporter**. - Push total grain & by‑product exports toward **105–110 mt**, with Rosario and Bahía Blanca as critical gateways. ([agrolatam.com](https://www.agrolatam.com/news/grain-exports-record-2025-corn-soy-soymeal/?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – MARKET_DYNAMICS** FAO GIEWS; USDA ERS Wheat Outlook 2026‑02; USDA FAS/USDA attaché via S&P Global and GrainPriceNews; Rosario Grain Exchange/BCR summarized by Data Portuaria, Agrolatam, Tridge; NABSA shipping statistics; Trade press (Feed & Grain, Grain Central). ([agrolatam.com](https://www.agrolatam.com/news/grain-exports-record-2025-corn-soy-soymeal/?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [INDUSTRY_OUTLOOK] === South Atlantic container & bulk freight rates 2026 – Argentina–Europe/Asia, port congestion (Rosario, Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca) Direct, highly granular data for *South‑Atlantic‑specific* freight indices in early 2026 is comparatively sparse and often paywalled (Clarksons, Baltic Exchange, Drewry). Public sources and trade press provide directional insights and occasional numerical benchmarks. **Bulk freight rates: grains ex‑Argentina (2026)** - Trade and broker commentary for Q1–Q2 2026 generally indicates: - **Panamax/Supramax rates from East Coast South America (ECSA) to China and Europe** are **below the peaks of 2021–2022**, but above late‑2023 lows, reflecting moderate demand and normalized fleet availability. - Public summaries from grain‑market news and freight commentary around USDA reports describe **competitive ECSA freight vs U.S. Gulf/Black Sea**, which supports Argentina’s wheat and corn competitiveness in **North Africa, Middle East and Southeast Asia**. ([feedandgrain.com](https://www.feedandgrain.com/business-markets/commodities/news/15819708/argentina-wheat-exports-surge-to-record-195-million-tons-as-global-trade-rebounds?utm_source=openai)) - From the available open commentary: - Typical **Panamax ECSA–China** fixtures in early 2026 are often reported in the **low‑ to mid‑US$20s/tonne** range, versus **high‑teens/low‑20s** for ECSA–Mediterranean/Europe, depending on laycan and loading port. (These are inferred bands synthesized from recent broker and market notes; exact fixtures vary day‑to‑day and are often paywalled.) - ECSA is described as a **“busy but not overheated” basin** in early 2026, with strong grain stems from Brazil and Argentina but adequate vessel supply. **Container freight – Argentina to Europe & Asia (2026)** Openly available container benchmarks (Drewry, Freightos etc.) typically report regional averages rather than port‑specific Argentine numbers. Still, directionally: - Spot container rates on main East Coast South America–Europe and –Asia routes in early 2026 are: - **Higher than pre‑COVID (2019)** but **far below the 2021–2022 spikes**, and roughly **flat to slightly up vs late 2025** amid modest global rebound in volumes. - Trade press notes that **reefer and agri‑food container flows (citrus, meat, wine, specialty grains)** from Argentina continue to face **rate premiums vs dry box** due to equipment balance and seasonal peaks. - For planning purposes, recent public estimates and freight‑forwarder quotes (Q1 2026) suggest: - **Buenos Aires – Northern Europe (40’ dry)**: often in the **US$1,800–2,500/FEU** range on spot, depending on line and surcharges. - **Buenos Aires – East Asia (40’ dry)**: roughly **US$2,200–3,000/FEU** on spot for non‑contracted shippers. These figures are indicative, not official benchmarks, pieced together from forwarder calculators and market commentary in early 2026. **Port congestion and operations: Rosario, Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca (2026)** - **Gran Rosario (Up‑river Paraná complex)** - Data Portuaria (Mar 2026) reports grain inflows to Argentine ports at **“maximum levels”** in the 2025/26 campaign, with Gran Rosario the main driver. Despite the surge, no major long‑lasting congestion episodes are recorded in the last 90 days; operations are described as **high‑throughput but functioning**, aided by prior dredging and scheduling improvements. ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/25153/el-ingreso-de-granos-a-puertos-opera-en-niveles-maximos-en-la-campana-2025-26/?utm_source=openai)) - High water‑level variability has historically constrained draft; however, early 2026 commentary suggests **navigational conditions have been manageable**, with typical up‑river loading protocols (top‑off at deep‑sea ports like Bahía Blanca/Quequén) still commonly used. - **Buenos Aires (container and multipurpose)** - Trade and logistics news for Q1 2026 portrays Buenos Aires as **operationally stable**: - No repeat of the severe congestion seen during COVID. - Some **short‑term yard pressure** around peak reefer seasons (meat, fruit), but average vessel wait times remain in the **hours–low‑single‑days range**, not weeks. - Ongoing concession and redesign discussions continue, but without major disruption in 2026 so far. - **Bahía Blanca (deep‑sea bulk port)** - As a key outlet for **wheat, barley and some corn**, Bahía Blanca has seen **strong 2025/26 wheat loadings** (projected **~4.5 mt of wheat exports** via south Buenos Aires ports). ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/24755/el-trigo-argentino-alcanza-una-produccion-record-de-27-7-millones-de-toneladas-y-proyecta-exportaciones-por-17-mt/?utm_source=openai)) - Public reports do not highlight acute congestion; rather, Bahía Blanca’s deep draft gives it a **competitive advantage for fully laden Panamax/Post‑Panamax bulkers**, especially for Asia and MENA wheat business. **Outlook for 2026** - **Bulk freight**: - With global fleet growth and tempered demand, consensus in commodity/freight commentary points to: - **Relatively moderate South Atlantic bulk rates for 2026**, supporting Argentina’s competitiveness in distant markets (Southeast Asia, North Africa). - Potential **seasonal spikes** during peak Brazilian and Argentine corn/wheat export windows, but no structural capacity shortage anticipated under current orderbook. - **Container freight**: - 2026 expectations are for **sideways to mildly higher** rates ex‑South America if global demand improves or if carriers further rationalize capacity; but still far below 2021–2022 extremes. - **Port operations**: - With record grain harvests, **short‑term queue buildups are possible** in Rosario and Bahía Blanca during peak months (Mar–Jun for maize, Dec–Mar for wheat), yet current evidence suggests: - **No systemic bottleneck** as of early May 2026. - The main risk factors are **river draft constraints, labor actions, and weather‑related closures**, rather than chronic infrastructure shortfalls. ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/25153/el-ingreso-de-granos-a-puertos-opera-en-niveles-maximos-en-la-campana-2025-26/?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – INDUSTRY_OUTLOOK** Public USDA/ERS wheat trade commentary; FAO/port‑flow reports summarized by Data Portuaria; open‑source freight and logistics commentary referencing ECSA grain routes; freight‑forwarder calculator ranges for 2026 spot container prices. (Note: the most detailed numeric freight indices are behind commercial paywalls; figures above are synthesized indicative levels.) ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/25153/el-ingreso-de-granos-a-puertos-opera-en-niveles-maximos-en-la-campana-2025-26/?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [POLICY_REGULATORY] === Argentina export taxes (“retenciones”), export restrictions 2026, and Mercosur trade context **Status of export taxes on agricultural commodities (2025–2026)** - **Structural use of export taxes** - OECD’s Agricultural Policy Monitoring (2024, with 2025 updates) confirms that Argentina continues to apply **export taxes on a broad basket of agricultural products**, including **soybeans and soy products, maize, wheat, other cereals, sunflower and several dairy products**. These taxes are a key policy lever and differentiate Argentina from most OECD‑monitored countries. ([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2024/11/agricultural-policy-monitoring-and-evaluation-2024_b4c72370/74da57ed-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Reductions in 2024–2025 and extension into 2026** - Wikipedia’s “Retenciones a las exportaciones” (drawing on official decrees) records the **August 6, 2024 Decree 697/2024**, which: - Eliminated export taxes on some beef categories and on pork and dairy chains. - Reduced export taxes by **25%** for several beef and poultry chains. ([es.wikipedia.org](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retenciones_a_las_exportaciones_%28Argentina%29?utm_source=openai)) - A Circular from NABSA (shipping agency) summarizes a key 2025 measure: - **Temporary reduction in export taxes for wheat and barley**, with revised rates effective **July 1, 2025**, and **wheat export duty maintained at 9.5% until March 31, 2026**. ([nabsa.com.ar](https://www.nabsa.com.ar/assets/news_prior4.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - A recent USDA FAS GAIN report (AR2025‑0025, published ~3 weeks ago) details further reductions in early 2025: - The Argentine government **further reduced export taxes on major agricultural commodities and by‑products**, delivering on a pledge to lower tax pressure and encourage exports. - The report includes a table of new rates; while specific percentages vary by HS line, the general direction is **downward for maize, wheat, some oilseeds and processed products**, while still leaving soybeans with one of the highest rates. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Argentine+Government+Furhter+Reduces+Export+Taxes+on+Agricultural+Commodities_Buenos+Aires_Argentina_AR2025-0025.pdf&utm_source=openai)) - S&P Global’s summary of the same package notes: - **Beef export tax cut from 6.75% to 5%**. - Lower duties on **corn, soybeans and by‑products** are expected to improve producer margins and “ramp up exportable supplies” in the 2025‑26 marketing year. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/072825-argentinas-new-export-duties-offer-relief-to-agricultural-supplies-sources?utm_source=openai)) **Current effective export tax landscape (early 2026 snapshot)** Based on the above sources (official decrees, USDA FAS, NABSA and trade press), the broad picture for early 2026 is: - **Still in place (but often reduced vs 2022–23):** - **Soybeans and soymeal/oil**: remain among the **highest‑taxed export chains**, though 2025 measures trimmed rates on some by‑products. - **Maize, wheat, barley and other cereals**: subject to export taxes, but with: - **Wheat at 9.5% at least through March 31, 2026**, per NABSA circular. ([nabsa.com.ar](https://www.nabsa.com.ar/assets/news_prior4.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Corn and some other grains seeing **rate reductions in early 2025** (exact HS‑line rates in USDA GAIN table). ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Argentine+Government+Furhter+Reduces+Export+Taxes+on+Agricultural+Commodities_Buenos+Aires_Argentina_AR2025-0025.pdf&utm_source=openai)) - **Eliminated or significantly reduced:** - Certain **beef categories**, **pork and dairy chains**, and some **value‑added products**, following Decree 697/2024 and subsequent measures. ([es.wikipedia.org](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retenciones_a_las_exportaciones_%28Argentina%29?utm_source=openai)) **Export restrictions (non‑tax measures) in 2026** - OECD policy monitoring and USTR’s 2026 National Trade Estimate both emphasize that: - Argentina maintains **export restrictions beyond mere taxes**, including: - Occasional **registration controls** (ROEs/affidavits) for grains and meat, - The capacity to impose **quantitative restrictions or temporary bans** to manage domestic prices. ([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2024/11/agricultural-policy-monitoring-and-evaluation-2024_b4c72370/74da57ed-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - However, under the current pro‑market administration and amid drought recovery, 2025–2026 trend is toward: - **Relaxation rather than tightening**: new policies focus on **cutting export taxes and easing controls** to stimulate output and foreign exchange earnings. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/072825-argentinas-new-export-duties-offer-relief-to-agricultural-supplies-sources?utm_source=openai)) - No major new outright export bans on grains or soy products have been reported in the last 90 days; rather, the policy narrative is about leveraging record harvests for export growth. **Mercosur–EU agreement and 2026 trade context** - **Agreement conclusion and ratification** - On **January 17, 2026**, Mercosur and the EU signed an **Interim Trade Agreement (IHA)** and a broader EU‑Mercosur Partnership Agreement (EMPA) in Asunción. ([argentina.gob.ar](https://www.argentina.gob.ar/normativa/nacional/resoluci%C3%B3n-50-2026-425340/texto?utm_source=openai)) - Argentina and Uruguay became the **first Mercosur members to ratify** the agreement in their parliaments in February 2026. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_Argentina?utm_source=openai)) - **Entry into force (provisional) and market size** - On **May 1, 2026**, the EU‑Mercosur trade agreement **entered into provisional effect**, creating a combined market of **over 700 million people**. ([elpais.com](https://elpais.com/economia/2026-05-01/el-acuerdo-comercial-ue-mercosur-entra-en-vigor-y-pone-en-marcha-un-mercado-de-mas-de-700-millones-de-personas.html?utm_source=openai)) - European press reports highlight concerns among EU farmers about increased imports of **beef, poultry, sugar, citrus and other sensitive products** from Mercosur, including Argentina. ([elpais.com](https://elpais.com/economia/2026-02-10/el-parlamento-europeo-aprueba-las-salvaguardas-agricolas-para-el-acuerdo-entre-la-ue-y-mercosur.html?utm_source=openai)) - **EU agricultural safeguards** - On **February 10, 2026**, the European Parliament approved **agricultural safeguard clauses** for the agreement: - Safeguards can be triggered if imports of sensitive products exceed **5% above the 3‑year historical average** or if EU prices drop by **more than 5%**. - This is stricter than the Commission’s earlier proposed 8–10% thresholds, effectively tightening conditions for Mercosur exporters. ([elpais.com](https://elpais.com/economia/2026-02-10/el-parlamento-europeo-aprueba-las-salvaguardas-agricolas-para-el-acuerdo-entre-la-ue-y-mercosur.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Intra‑Mercosur integration issues** - Reporting from March 13, 2026, notes that despite the new EU agreement: - **Free circulation within Mercosur remains incomplete**; customs controls and divergent certifications cause long delays at borders. - Argentine officials argue for **faster regulatory convergence and removal of internal barriers** to fully exploit the EU deal. ([elpais.com](https://elpais.com/argentina/2026-03-13/socios-de-mercosur-piden-integracion-interna-ante-la-entrada-en-vigor-del-acuerdo-con-la-ue.html?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for Argentine agricultural exports in 2026** - **Short‑term (2026) effects:** - **Lower export taxes + record harvests** are set to: - Increase **exportable surpluses of wheat, corn and soy products**, - Improve **farmer net margins** and incentivize forward sales. ([dataportuaria.ar](https://dataportuaria.ar/nota/25153/el-ingreso-de-granos-a-puertos-opera-en-niveles-maximos-en-la-campana-2025-26/?utm_source=openai)) - The EU‑Mercosur deal offers: - **Progressive tariff reductions or quotas** on key Argentine exports (e.g., beef, some processed foods), but in the **short term**, the main constraints will be: - EU safeguard clauses, - Sanitary and sustainability requirements, and - Persistent intra‑Mercosur logistics frictions. ([elpais.com](https://elpais.com/economia/2026-02-10/el-parlamento-europeo-aprueba-las-salvaguardas-agricolas-para-el-acuerdo-entre-la-ue-y-mercosur.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Regulatory risk profile:** - Argentina’s long history of using export taxes and controls means: - **Policy reversals remain a structural risk**, especially if fiscal or inflation pressures intensify. - Nonetheless, all 2024–2026 moves so far point toward a **liberalizing, export‑friendly stance**, at least through the 2025/26 campaign. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Argentine+Government+Furhter+Reduces+Export+Taxes+on+Agricultural+Commodities_Buenos+Aires_Argentina_AR2025-0025.pdf&utm_source=openai)) **Sources – POLICY_REGULATORY** Official Argentine norms (Res. 50/2026); OECD Agricultural Policy Monitoring 2024; Argentina “retenciones” background; USDA FAS GAIN 2025 report on export tax cuts; S&P Global coverage of new export duties; NABSA circular on wheat/barley tax reductions; USTR 2026 National Trade Estimate; EU‑Mercosur agreement reporting (El País, Cadena SER, etc.); European Parliament safeguard decision. ([argentina.gob.ar](https://www.argentina.gob.ar/normativa/nacional/resoluci%C3%B3n-50-2026-425340/texto?utm_source=openai))