## Company Profile NZ GOURMET — appears to be a New Zealand–based freight forwarder (contact page: https://nzgourmet.co.nz/contact/; sales@nzg.co.nz). Public details are limited, but the firm is clearly positioned to serve NZ exporters of food and perishable goods (cold‑chain shipments by sea and air from major NZ gateways such as Auckland, Christchurch, Tauranga). Scale is not published; likely a local/regional forwarder focused on refrigerated cargo and export documentation for horticulture, seafood and specialty food producers. ## Pain Points 1) Seasonal reefer equipment and cold‑store shortages during the kiwifruit peak (Apr–Jun 2026) — risk of container rollovers, PSS and missed sailings for exporters. 2) Volatile airfreight belly capacity and premium rates for high‑value perishables (seafood, cherries, chilled meat) — need for block‑space or last‑minute uplift solutions out of Auckland/Christchurch. 3) Changing destination mix (EU/UK quota increases for dairy/honey) and longer routings (Red Sea detours) — adds documentation/quota management and transhipment complexity that smaller forwarders must manage to capture higher‑value markets. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === [MARKET EVENTS] New Zealand food exports 2026 trends – dairy, seafood, kiwifruit, honey === **Macro export setting 2025–26** - NZ food & fibre exports are forecast to reach a record **NZ$62 billion in the year to 30 June 2026**, up about **3% YoY** from NZ$60.4 b in 2024/25. Primary sectors account for **~83% of merchandise exports and ~15% of GDP**. ([beehive.govt.nz](https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/food-and-fibre-exports-set-reach-record-62-billion?utm_source=openai)) - Within this, **dairy, meat/wool and horticulture (kiwifruit-led)** remain the main growth pillars; seafood is softer, and honey/processed foods show modest growth. ([mpi.govt.nz](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/70984/direct?utm_source=openai)) #### Dairy - Dairy export revenue for year to June 2026 is forecast to be **up ~1% YoY**, essentially flat in nominal terms after strong growth in 2023–25. ([ruralnewsgroup.co.nz](https://ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/mpi-dairy-outlook-growth-protein-demand?utm_source=openai)) - DHL’s 2026 export outlook cites **NZ$23.9 b of dairy export revenue in 2025**, **+23.1% YoY**, driven by higher milk powder, butter and cheese exports and solid demand in China, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. ([dhl.com](https://www.dhl.com/discover/en-nz/e-commerce-advice/shipping-guides-by-country/nz-major-exports-outlook-2026?utm_source=openai)) - **EU and UK FTAs** are structurally important for 2026: - EU–NZ FTA: tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for milk powders, butter, cheese, high‑protein whey and certain processed dairy products expand annually over 7–8 years. For the **2026 quota year (year 2)**, allocations increase versus 2025, gradually improving access for value‑added dairy. ([mpi.govt.nz](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/export/food/dairy/steps-to-exporting/exporting-under-the-dairy-quota-programme?utm_source=openai)) - UK–NZ FTA: transitional TRQs for butter and cheese continue to widen in **2026 quota year (year 4)**, with most tariffs scheduled to phase out over time. ([mpi.govt.nz](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/export/food/dairy/steps-to-exporting/exporting-under-the-dairy-quota-programme?utm_source=openai)) **Logistics implications – dairy** - Dairy exports are predominantly **containerised refrigerated ocean freight**, with peak flows aligned to seasonal milk production (spring flush: **Sep–Dec**) and contract shipping into Asia, Middle East, EU and the US. - Expanded EU/UK quotas increase **northbound reefer volumes out of NZ** on Asia–Europe and Asia–UK routings via hub ports, adding demand for refrigerated equipment and cold‑storage at load ports (Tauranga, Lyttelton, Napier). #### Seafood (wild catch + aquaculture) - Aquaculture (mussels, salmon, etc.) had **record 2025 export revenue of ~NZ$650 m**, but the **2026 outlook is “more uncertain”** due to softer prices and rising costs. Key export species: **mussels, rock lobster, salmon, hoki**. ([bdo.nz](https://www.bdo.nz/en-nz/insights/agribusiness/aquaculture-in-2026-navigating-a-tide-of-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - SOPI December 2025 forecasts **seafood export revenue to fall about 3% to NZ$2.1 b in 2025/26**, citing lower prices and some volume headwinds. ([mpi.govt.nz](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/70984/direct?utm_source=openai)) - Rock lobster prices into China have **softened since 2024** as Australian supply has re‑entered the Chinese market, eroding NZ’s COVID‑era premium. ([bdo.nz](https://www.bdo.nz/en-nz/insights/agribusiness/aquaculture-in-2026-navigating-a-tide-of-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) **Logistics implications – seafood** - Rock lobster and some fresh fish are heavily **airfreight‑dependent**, especially to China and Northeast Asia, often moving ex‑Christchurch and Wellington on widebody belly capacity in peak months (Nov–Feb). - Mussels and hoki are mainly **frozen container exports**, using reefer containers to Asia, North America and EU; lower revenue in 2026 implies slightly lighter reefer demand for some species but still strong baseline volumes. #### Kiwifruit and horticulture - NZ’s fresh & processed produce exports reached **NZ$6.85 b FOB in year to 30 June 2025**; **kiwifruit contributed NZ$3.66 b (+35% YoY) and 53% of fresh‑produce export tonnage (~770,000 t)**. ([unitedfresh.co.nz](https://unitedfresh.co.nz/news-events/united-fresh-news-feed/kiwifruit-drives-nz-fresh-fruit-exports-skyward?utm_source=openai)) - SOPI forecasts **horticulture export revenue to rise ~5% to NZ$9.2 b in year to June 2026**, driven largely by kiwifruit and apples. ([beehive.govt.nz](https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/food-and-fibre-exports-set-reach-record-62-billion?utm_source=openai)) - Recent data indicate: - Fresh fruit exports in **March 2026** were dominated by kiwifruit and apples, which made up **>95% of fruit export value that month**. ([freshplaza.com](https://www.freshplaza.com/oceania/article/9831275/new-zealand-fruit-exports-rise-as-kiwifruit-and-apples-drive-growth/?utm_source=openai)) - Sectoral reports project **record kiwifruit production of ~800,000 t in MY 2025/26**, with export value in 2025 already above **NZ$4.5 b FOB**. ([fructidor.com](https://fructidor.com/news/news-detail/88bd1697-a4e1-4087-9998-dcae81f42b9d?utm_source=openai)) - The EU absorbs about **32% of kiwifruit exports**, followed by China and Japan, according to a recent USDA FAS report (NZ2026‑0002). ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=New+Zealand+Kiwifruit+Sector_Wellington_New+Zealand_NZ2026-0002.pdf&utm_source=openai)) **Logistics implications – kiwifruit and produce** - The **kiwifruit season runs roughly March–November with a peak April–June**, generating strong seasonal pressure on: - **Reefer container availability at Tauranga and other export ports**. - Cold‑storage capacity near packhouses and port cold‑stores. - Scheduling of dedicated reefer vessel calls and container services to **EU (via Mediterranean/North Europe), China, Japan, Korea and North America**. - Record tonnages for 2025/26 imply **heightened 2026 pressure on reefer equipment, port handling windows and vessel scheduling**, especially if container markets tighten post‑Red Sea disruptions. #### Honey (especially mānuka) - NZ produces **15,000–20,000 t of honey annually**; export earnings are **>NZ$340 m/year** and “continue to grow.” ([mpi.govt.nz](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/export/food/honey-and-bee-products/?utm_source=openai)) - Manuka dominates: in 2020 it represented **>90% of honey export earnings (~NZ$446 m)**; more recent MPI and industry documents show: - NZ honey exports to the **US** (mainly manuka) rose from ~1,500 t (2022) to about **2,125 t in 2025**, making the US the largest and fastest‑growing market. ([takeovers.govt.nz](https://www.takeovers.govt.nz/assets/Transactions/Comvita-Limited-2025-Notice-of-Meeting-Scheme-Booklet-Independent-Advisers-Report.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Exports to the **UK** rebounded to **~1,380 t in 2025** after several weaker years, helped by the NZ–UK FTA removing tariffs. ([mfat.govt.nz](https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/mfat-market-reports/nz-uk-free-trade-agreement-primary-exports-update?utm_source=openai)) - Exports to **China** have been trending down since peaking around 2021. ([takeovers.govt.nz](https://www.takeovers.govt.nz/assets/Transactions/Comvita-Limited-2025-Notice-of-Meeting-Scheme-Booklet-Independent-Advisers-Report.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Regulatory and trade‑policy context – honey** - The **NZ–UK FTA (in force since May 2023)** eliminates tariffs on NZ honey, supporting the **50% increase in honey export value to the UK**, from NZ$38 m to NZ$57 m with **+17% growth in the year to June 2025 alone**. ([mfat.govt.nz](https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/mfat-market-reports/nz-uk-free-trade-agreement-primary-exports-update?utm_source=openai)) - Market access remains shaped by **definition and labelling rules for “mānuka”**, ongoing branding disputes with Australian producers, and quality standards (UMF/MGO grading) that support premium price positioning. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C4%81nuka_honey?utm_source=openai)) **Cross‑commodity logistics themes for 2026** - **Modest export growth (+3% overall)** means volumes are rising but not surging; however, sector‑specific peaks (kiwifruit, meat, seafood) will still create **short, sharp logistics bottlenecks**. - FTAs with the **EU and UK** are progressively: - Redirecting some dairy and horticulture flows from Asia to Europe. - Increasing demand for **reefer capacity on Asia–Europe and Asia–UK rotations**, contributing to seasonal equipment imbalances. - Rising aquaculture costs and weaker lobster prices reduce some premium airfreight flows, but overall **perishable export dependence on reliable reefer and belly capacity remains structurally high**. **Sources (Market Events)**: ([beehive.govt.nz](https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/food-and-fibre-exports-set-reach-record-62-billion?utm_source=openai)) === [COMMODITY TRENDS] NZ perishable export seasonality 2026 – peak windows, cold chain pressure, airfreight demand (Jun–Nov 2026) === #### 1. Seasonal calendar – main perishable export streams **Kiwifruit** - Industry and official data indicate: - Kiwifruit season: **roughly March–November**; **peak exports April–June**. ([freshplaza.com](https://www.freshplaza.com/oceania/article/9831275/new-zealand-fruit-exports-rise-as-kiwifruit-and-apples-drive-growth/?utm_source=openai)) - In 2025, kiwifruit made up **53% of NZ fresh‑fruit export tonnage (~770,000 t)** and **~NZ$3.66 b FOB**; 2025/26 tonnage is expected to reach **~800,000 t**, a new record. ([unitedfresh.co.nz](https://unitedfresh.co.nz/news-events/united-fresh-news-feed/kiwifruit-drives-nz-fresh-fruit-exports-skyward?utm_source=openai)) - **Implications for Jun–Nov 2026:** - **April–June 2026:** absolute peak shipping; heaviest pressure on reefer containers, packing sheds, and port cold‑stores, especially for Europe and East Asia sailings. - **July–September:** tail of the main season; still elevated reefer demand as fruit is drawn from controlled‑atmosphere storage for later‑season shipments to Asia/Europe. - **October–November:** volumes drop but continue for some late varieties and markets; cold‑store utilisation remains above off‑season norms. **Apples & pears** - New Zealand’s apples and pears are the second key fruit export; their main export window to Northern Hemisphere markets is **March–September**, with late‑season shipments extending into **October** from CA storage. Industry summaries for 2024/25 point to robust export tonnages and similar timing for 2026. ([shfruit.org](https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Stonefruit & cherries** - Cherries and other summerfruit are highly seasonal: - Cherries: harvest **Dec–Feb**, peak exports **Dec–Jan**, with most volume airfreighted to China and other Asian markets. ([shfruit.org](https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - By **June–Nov 2026**, cherry exports are largely absent; cold chain shifts to kiwifruit, apples, vegetables and meat. **Meat (lamb, beef) – chilled/frozen** - Lamb exports show clear seasonality: 2025 data for lamb exports to China show value **peaking at NZ$138.1 m in March and NZ$132.0 m in December**, then **dropping to ~NZ$45–46 m in June and September**. ([stanworth.co.nz](https://stanworth.co.nz/articles/nz-lamb-importers-guide?utm_source=openai)) - This pattern reflects NZ’s **spring lamb production for Northern Hemisphere winter** and lower mid‑year volumes. - For **June–September 2026**: - **Frozen lamb and beef exports continue but at lower peaks**; pressure shifts to chilled product for European summer and North Asian BBQ season, typically in **reefer containers** rather than airfreight. - Meat remains a major reefer‑user year‑round but its **peak export stress** falls outside mid‑year kiwifruit peak, providing some balancing for cold‑chain assets. **Seafood** - Wild‑catch hoki and other whitefish: main trawl seasons in NZ winter (**June–September**) with product largely **frozen at sea and containerised**; aquaculture mussels and salmon harvests are more continuous. ([bdo.nz](https://www.bdo.nz/en-nz/insights/agribusiness/aquaculture-in-2026-navigating-a-tide-of-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - **Live rock lobster exports** peak around **Chinese New Year (Jan/Feb) and other Chinese holidays**, with strong **airfreight usage**; by **June–Nov 2026** lobster shipments continue but at lower intensity, still requiring chilled air capacity into China and Hong Kong. ([bdo.nz](https://www.bdo.nz/en-nz/insights/agribusiness/aquaculture-in-2026-navigating-a-tide-of-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) **Honey** - Honey exports are less acutely seasonal in shipping terms; production is linked to **spring–summer flowering (roughly Oct–Feb)** with export flows smoothed through the year. - Manuka shipments are typically containerised ambient cargo, with some **airfreight for high‑value retail/online orders**, but they do **not materially drive cold‑chain bottlenecks**. ([mpi.govt.nz](https://www.mpi.govt.nz/export/food/honey-and-bee-products/?utm_source=openai)) #### 2. Cold chain and reefer pressure (Jun–Nov 2026) 1. **Reefer container demand** - With kiwifruit, apples, and CA‑stored fruit dominating fruit exports, **reefer utilisation stays elevated from April through at least September 2026**, particularly on: - **Asia–NZ–EU loops** carrying fruit northbound and returning empty or with other refrigerated cargo southbound. - Services from **Tauranga, Napier and Nelson** to **North Asia and Europe**. - Record kiwifruit tonnage (~800,000 t) implies **single‑digit % increases in seasonal reefer requirements vs 2025**, adding risk of **equipment shortages and rollovers** if global container markets tighten again. ([fructidor.com](https://fructidor.com/news/news-detail/88bd1697-a4e1-4087-9998-dcae81f42b9d?utm_source=openai)) 2. **Cold storage and packhouse throughput** - Fresh Facts data show a **5‑year trend growth of ~4% annually in total NZ fresh‑fruit export tonnage**, with kiwifruit up **6% p.a.** ([shfruit.org](https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - This structural growth means **packhouses and port cold‑stores will run near or at capacity during Apr–Jul 2026**, especially in Bay of Plenty, Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay and Nelson. - Higher volumes combined with labour constraints may **extend dwell times**, increasing inventory days in port cold‑stores and tightening capacity further. 3. **Modal split: ocean vs air for perishables** - **Airfreight‑intensive perishables** in the Jun–Nov window include: - High‑value seafood (fresh fillets, live lobster to Asia). - Limited volumes of **premium chilled lamb** and fast‑to‑market fruit for promotions or when ocean schedules are disrupted. - However, **>90% of NZ perishable export tonnage** (kiwifruit, apples, frozen meat, mussels, hoki, butter, cheese) is structurally **ocean‑freight‑based**, with air used as a tactical release valve during: - **Port congestion or vessel delays.** - **Market promotions with short lead times.** #### 3. Airfreight demand outlook (Jun–Nov 2026) - IATA data show **global air cargo demand up ~6% YoY in Q4 2025**, with international capacity up **~6.4%** and the market entering 2026 “with less slack than expected,” as e‑commerce and modal shifts from ocean drive demand. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai)) - For NZ, the **Jun–Nov 2026 perishable airfreight pattern** is likely to feature: - **June–August:** moderate uplift of chilled lamb and beef for Northern Hemisphere grilling season, plus fresh seafood to Asia; belly capacity is still recovering, so yields remain firm. - **September–November:** building seafood demand into year‑end holidays in Asia/US/EU, and early‑season cherries (late November) starting to move by air, especially from **Christchurch and Queenstown**. Overall, **2026 cold‑chain risk is concentrated in Q2–Q3 (Apr–Sep)**, with: - **Reefer container shortages and schedule reliability** as the key constraints. - **Airfreight demand elevated but capacity gradually improving**, limiting the need for extreme modal shifts except during disruptions. **Sources (Commodity Trends)**: ([freshplaza.com](https://www.freshplaza.com/oceania/article/9831275/new-zealand-fruit-exports-rise-as-kiwifruit-and-apples-drive-growth/?utm_source=openai)) === [DEMAND SIGNALS] Auckland & Christchurch airfreight capacity and ocean freight rates 2026 – Asia/US/EU === #### 1. Auckland airfreight – capacity and routes - Auckland Airport reports that for the **summer 2025/26 season** it scheduled **an additional 207,000 international seats**, lifting total international capacity to **5.8 million seats** and connecting **43 global destinations**. Much of this is on wide‑body aircraft, which significantly increases **belly‑cargo capacity**. ([corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz](https://corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz/news/latest-media/2025/auckland-airport-gears-up-for-summer-with-207-000-more-internati?utm_source=openai)) - The added capacity includes: - Expanded services from Chinese carriers, enhancing links to **China and wider Asia/Europe via hubs**. - More frequencies with long‑haul airlines to **North America and Europe** via intermediate hubs (e.g., Singapore, Doha, Dubai). ([corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz](https://corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz/news/latest-media/2025/auckland-airport-gears-up-for-summer-with-207-000-more-internati?utm_source=openai)) - Given IATA’s global data (international capacity +6.4% YoY by Dec 2025), NZ exporters can expect **more available uplift and somewhat lower spot yields by 2026 vs 2023–24 peaks**, but still above pre‑COVID norms. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai)) **Directionally for 2026:** - **Asia (ex‑Auckland):** - More frequencies to **China and Southeast Asia** support perishables (seafood, chilled meat, high‑value fruit) and e‑commerce parcels. - Increased competition among carriers tends to **cap rate escalation**, though surcharges will remain sensitive to fuel and geopolitical rerouting (e.g., Red Sea, Russia overflight constraints on some routings). - **US/EU (ex‑Auckland):** - NZ–US direct and one‑stop services have largely recovered; access to multiple US and European gateways via Asian and Middle Eastern hubs expands routing options. - For **time‑sensitive perishables**, belly space via hub connections should be **more available in 2026**, reducing the probability of volume being shut out in peak weeks compared to 2021–22. #### 2. Christchurch airfreight – South Island perishables - Christchurch International Airport is NZ’s **second‑largest airport**, handling over **6.6 million passengers in 2025 (+5.4% YoY)**, an indicator of recovering wide‑body traffic and associated belly‑cargo capacity. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christchurch_Airport?utm_source=openai)) - Christchurch is a key export gateway for: - **Seafood** (salmon, live lobster, chilled fillets) from the South Island. - **Meat** (chilled lamb and beef) from Canterbury and Otago. - **Cherries and stonefruit** during the Nov–Feb window, predominantly to **China and other Asian markets** via direct or one‑stop connections. - While detailed 2026 route‑by‑route schedules are still being finalised, rising passenger numbers and airline network rebuilding indicate **more consistent wide‑body operations**, which: - **Stabilises capacity** for high‑value perishables. - Reduces the need to truck product to Auckland to secure uplift. #### 3. Ocean freight rates & schedule reliability – NZ to Asia/US/EU (2026 context) - Global container rates: - S&P Global notes that **Asia–Europe container freight spot rates collapsed to multi‑year lows in Q3 2025**, after the post‑pandemic spike, putting severe margin pressure on carriers. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/100725-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-container-freight-collapses-to-multiyear-lows?utm_source=openai)) - Freightos and other indices in early 2026 show: - **Asia–US West Coast and East Coast rates declining slightly (~1% WoW in mid‑May 2026)** from an already reduced baseline, but remaining influenced by ongoing Red Sea diversions and fuel costs. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1ti4x5c/freightos_weekly_update_may_19_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - UPS’ Q1 2026 logistics trends report highlights: - **Asia–Europe recovery constrained**; carriers are managing capacity carefully, and **seasonal peak‑season rate increases** are expected from a still‑elevated cost base. - US containerised imports dipped in late 2025 after an early, tariff‑driven peak season, leaving **some spare capacity heading into 2026**. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/100725-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-container-freight-collapses-to-multiyear-lows?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for New Zealand lanes (Asia/US/EU):** - **NZ–Asia (reefer and dry):** - Rates have come off 2021–22 highs but remain **above pre‑COVID averages**; carriers are likely to push for **peak‑season surcharges (PSS)** in mid‑2026 when: - NZ’s kiwifruit and meat exports coincide with **North Asian demand peaks**. - Schedule reliability has improved versus 2022 but is still vulnerable to **port congestion in transhipment hubs (e.g., Singapore, Port Klang, Busan)**. - **NZ–EU/UK:** - Trades rely heavily on **NZ–Asia leg + transhipment to Europe/UK**. - With Asia–Europe spot rates relatively low in late 2025 but expected to rise into 2026 peak season, NZ exporters may: - Face **higher all‑in rates and longer transit times** if carriers reroute around the Red Sea/Suez. - Experience **occasional rollovers** for reefer cargo in peak months (Apr–Jul for kiwifruit), pushing some shippers toward **premium services or limited airfreight** to protect promotions. - **NZ–US:** - Indirect routings via **Asia or the Pacific** mean NZ exporters are exposed to: - **Asia–US West Coast/East Coast rate swings**, which are currently easing but remain volatile. - US West Coast labour and congestion risks, though less acute than in 2021–22. - For **high‑value chilled meat and seafood**, airfreight via Auckland (and to a lesser extent Christchurch) continues to be used when: - Ocean schedules are unreliable. - Promotional windows in US retail demand very tight lead times. #### 4. Net demand signals for 2026 - **Airfreight**: - Global demand is **growing (+6–8% YoY in late 2025)**, led by ex‑Asia flows, with improving capacity but still tightness on some lanes. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-01-29-01/?utm_source=openai)) - For NZ exporters: - **Belly capacity at Auckland and Christchurch is expanding**, improving access to Asia/US/EU hubs. - Rates are likely to **stabilise or gently soften vs 2023–24**, but high‑value perishable peaks (e.g., seafood into China, cherries in Nov–Jan) will still command **premium rates** and require advance block‑space agreements. - **Ocean freight**: - Base rates from NZ to major markets in 2026 should remain **below 2022 highs but above pre‑COVID**, with: - **Seasonal increases** during Northern Hemisphere and NZ peak seasons. - **Fuel and detour surcharges** if geopolitical disruptions persist. - Schedule reliability is **moderately improved** but remains a concern for tight‑shelf‑life products; this underpins **continued structural demand for airfreight as a risk‑mitigation tool**, especially out of Auckland and Christchurch. **Sources (Demand Signals)**: ([corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz](https://corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz/news/latest-media/2025/auckland-airport-gears-up-for-summer-with-207-000-more-internati?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • Food and fibre exports set to reach record $62 billion | Beehive.govt.nz https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/food-and-fibre-exports-set-reach-record-62-billion?utm_source=openai • Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries December 2025 https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/70984/direct?utm_source=openai • Ray Smith: Dairy still has growth potential despite flat export outlook https://ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/dairy-news/dairy-general-news/mpi-dairy-outlook-growth-protein-demand?utm_source=openai • New Zealand Export Outlook 2026 - DHL Express NZ https://www.dhl.com/discover/en-nz/e-commerce-advice/shipping-guides-by-country/nz-major-exports-outlook-2026?utm_source=openai • Exporting under the dairy quota programme | NZ Government https://www.mpi.govt.nz/export/food/dairy/steps-to-exporting/exporting-under-the-dairy-quota-programme?utm_source=openai • Exporting under the dairy quota programme | NZ Government https://www.mpi.govt.nz/export/food/dairy/steps-to-exporting/exporting-under-the-dairy-quota-programme?utm_source=openai • Aquaculture in 2026: Navigating a tide of uncertainty | Agribusiness | Insights - BDO https://www.bdo.nz/en-nz/insights/agribusiness/aquaculture-in-2026-navigating-a-tide-of-uncertainty?utm_source=openai • Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries December 2025 https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/70984/direct?utm_source=openai • Aquaculture in 2026: Navigating a tide of uncertainty | Agribusiness | Insights - BDO https://www.bdo.nz/en-nz/insights/agribusiness/aquaculture-in-2026-navigating-a-tide-of-uncertainty?utm_source=openai • United Fresh | United Fresh New Zealand Incorporated https://unitedfresh.co.nz/news-events/united-fresh-news-feed/kiwifruit-drives-nz-fresh-fruit-exports-skyward?utm_source=openai • Food and fibre exports set to reach record $62 billion | Beehive.govt.nz https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/food-and-fibre-exports-set-reach-record-62-billion?utm_source=openai • New Zealand fruit exports rise as kiwifruit and apples drive growth https://www.freshplaza.com/oceania/article/9831275/new-zealand-fruit-exports-rise-as-kiwifruit-and-apples-drive-growth/?utm_source=openai • United Fresh | United Fresh New Zealand Incorporated https://unitedfresh.co.nz/news-events/united-fresh-news-feed/kiwifruit-drives-nz-fresh-fruit-exports-skyward?utm_source=openai • Food and fibre exports set to reach record $62 billion | Beehive.govt.nz https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/food-and-fibre-exports-set-reach-record-62-billion?utm_source=openai • STATISTICAL https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai • STATISTICAL https://www.shfruit.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/SFA-Stats-Handbook-2026-FA-web.pdf?utm_source=openai • How to Import New Zealand Lamb: A Buyer's Guide | Stanworth Trading Group https://stanworth.co.nz/articles/nz-lamb-importers-guide?utm_source=openai • Aquaculture in 2026: Navigating a tide of uncertainty | Agribusiness | Insights - BDO https://www.bdo.nz/en-nz/insights/agribusiness/aquaculture-in-2026-navigating-a-tide-of-uncertainty?utm_source=openai