## Company Profile B-PROJECTS TRANSPORTES NACIONAIS E INTERNACIONAIS LTDA is a Brazil-based freight forwarder and transport company (national and international) offering road, sea and customs-related logistics services. Public contact lists them in Brazil with a Director, Thomas Weitmann. The company website (https://www.brasil-projects.com.br/) presents standard forwarding and transport capabilities for agricultural exporters and importers. Scale not publicly disclosed; positioning appears to be a local/regional freight forwarder handling agri-bulk and containerized export flows from Brazilian production regions to major export ports. ## Pain Points 1) Seasonal capacity crunches: Soybean and corn harvest peaks (Q2–Q3 and September) plus sugar/coffee flows concentrate demand on Santos/Paranaguá, causing truck shortages, berth congestion, missed cut-offs, and demurrage for their exporter clients. 2) Regulatory & cost shock: ANTT’s CIOT filter and minimum freight enforcement (Mar–May 2026 rulemaking; CIOT mandatory from May 24, 2026) make inland trucking rates floor-bound and create fine exposure for non‑compliant operations — squeezing forwarder margins and complicating last‑mile moves from Mato Grosso/Goiás to ports. 3) Capacity and network volatility: Elevated bulk rates to China/EU, blank sailings, Red Sea re‑routing effects, and ANTAQ cabotage limits increase spot price volatility, reduce predictable vessel calls, and add documentation/compliance burdens for using coastal sea legs — limiting the forwarder’s options to rescue urgent shipments. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. COMMODITY TRENDS – BRAZIL SOYBEANS, CORN, SUGAR, COFFEE (EXPORT VOLUMES, PRICES, LOGISTICS, SEASONALITY) === **Soybeans** - **Production & export availability (2025/26)** - Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest is projected around **160–165 MMT**, near record levels and slightly above the prior year, reinforcing Brazil as China’s primary supplier. ([breakwaveadvisors.com](https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2026/1/30/grain-flows-to-china-and-freight-signals?utm_source=openai)) - CONAB estimates cited by USDA put Brazil’s total soybean production rising from **147.7 MMT (2023/24)** to about **169.6 MMT** in 2024/25, implying strong carry-over into early 2026 export programs. ([ams.usda.gov](https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Export volumes & China share** - In 2025, Brazil supplied **73.6% of China’s soybean imports**, up from 71% in 2024, confirming Brazil’s dominance despite some seasonal “lean” months. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/021826-brazil-argentina-ship-7-mil-mt-of-soybeans-to-china-for-feb-april-cas?utm_source=openai)) - For Feb–Apr 2026 shipment programs, China is expected to receive **6.2 MMT** of soybeans from Brazil (plus 0.75 MMT from Argentina), reflecting the typical shift from U.S. to South American origins as Brazil’s new crop comes onstream. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/021826-brazil-argentina-ship-7-mil-mt-of-soybeans-to-china-for-feb-april-cas?utm_source=openai)) - USDA’s Q2 2025 Brazil soybean transportation report shows **record July 2025 exports of 12.3 MMT**, +9% vs July 2024, highlighting expanded port throughput and front‑loaded exports ahead of 2025/26 planting. ([cropgpt.ai](https://cropgpt.ai/brazil-soybeans-q3-2025-supply-chain-and-export-dynamics?utm_source=openai)) - **Price trends & margins** - IDB’s 2026 trade trends estimate that **soybean prices fell 6.7% YoY (Jan–Nov 2025)**, the third consecutive annual decline, driven by large crops in Brazil and other major producers. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-trend-estimates-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - USDA reports **average Brazilian soybean export prices** dropping **9% YoY** (from **US$432/mt to US$391/mt**) over the one-year period to Q2 2025, compressing producer margins even as volumes expand. ([ams.usda.gov](https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Logistics and seasonality effects** - Soybean exports dominate Q2–Q3 logistics: USDA notes that in the **Q2 window, soybean movements take precedence in truck and rail capacity**, constraining corn flows and raising interior freight rates. ([ams.usda.gov](https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - By **September**, soybean exports recede but still occupy residual capacity; K2 Capital highlights that **September is historically the peak single-month volume for Brazilian corn exports**, and that **Santos is at highest risk of congestion** as soybean residual flows overlap with new-crop corn. ([k2-capital.co](https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Corn** - **Production, domestic pull, and export ceiling** - K2 Capital’s March 2026 Safrinha Corn report notes strong domestic demand: **Brazilian domestic corn consumption is projected at 94.6 MMT in 2025/26**, up sharply over recent years, with ethanol plants and livestock feed the main drivers. ([k2-capital.co](https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - This domestic pull structurally **reduces the corn export “ceiling”**: in supply‑constrained years (e.g., La Niña yield hits), competition between export channels and domestic ethanol plants is “resolved by price” – high domestic bids can divert volumes from export ports, tightening export programs and potentially freeing some logistics capacity but reducing throughput. ([k2-capital.co](https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Seasonality and logistics clashes** - Corn exports are heavily **back‑half weighted**: exports ramp after the safrinha harvest flows into the system, with **September as the historical peak month**. ([k2-capital.co](https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - USDA’s 2025 Grain & Feed Annual reiterates that during Q1–Q2, **soybean transportation takes precedence**, reducing freight availability for corn and leading to higher trucking and barge costs for corn exporters. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain+and+Feed+Annual_Brasilia_Brazil_BR2025-0009.pdf&utm_source=openai)) **Sugar** - **Price trends** - IDB’s 2026 trade trends show **global sugar prices contracted 17.4% YoY through Nov 2025**, after a **13.7% fall in 2024**, reflecting normalized supply after previous tightness. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-trend-estimates-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - For Brazil, this price correction coincides with high Center-South output, which keeps **export volumes robust but revenue growth subdued**; millers with flexible cane allocation (sugar vs ethanol) may tilt more cane towards ethanol when export prices weaken, modulating sugar export tonnage and logistics peaks. - **Implications for export logistics** - Sugar exports are concentrated in **Center-South harvest and crush window (roughly April–November)**. Lower prices and flexible cane diversion can **smooth peak export volumes modestly**, but major ports like Santos and Paranaguá still see strong seasonal sugar flows layered on soy/corn, adding to berth competition in Q2–Q3. **Coffee**n - **Export volumes & revenue (2025/26)** - CEPEA (Apr 16, 2026) reports that **Brazilian coffee shipments in the 2025/26 season (Jul 2025–Mar 2026)** declined in volume vs 2024/25; exports of around **35 million 60‑kg bags** would be the **lowest since 2017/18**. ([cepea.org.br](https://cepea.org.br/en/partial-exports-in-2025-26-hit-lowest-level-since-2022-23.aspx?utm_source=openai)) - Despite lower volume, **export revenue reached US$11.43 billion** in Jul 2025–Mar 2026, **+2.9% YoY** vs US$11.1 billion in the previous season, reflecting firmer prices and a favorable exchange rate. ([cepea.org.br](https://cepea.org.br/en/partial-exports-in-2025-26-hit-lowest-level-since-2022-23.aspx?utm_source=openai)) - **Production outlook & price context** - A widely cited 2026 outlook (coffee market analysis) suggests a **record Brazilian coffee harvest around 66.2 million bags in 2026**, though producers question whether weather damage and field conditions will fully support that figure. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/Coffee/comments/1s1cdql/brazils_2026_coffee_harvest_is_forecast_to_be_a/?utm_source=openai)) - IDB data show that between Jan–Nov 2025, the **weighted average prices of arabica and robusta were relatively firm** compared with the sharper declines seen in soybeans and sugar, supporting coffee export revenues even with weaker volumes. ([publications.iadb.org](https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-trend-estimates-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Port bottlenecks & missed shipments** - A Seatrade-linked supply chain report warns that **Brazil’s port infrastructure is running at full capacity**, impacting export chains for agriculture and minerals. It notes that in **March 2025, Brazil failed to ship over 600,000 bags of coffee** (≈36,000 tonnes) due to port bottlenecks, highlighting the sensitivity of coffee shipments to berth availability and truck/rail access. ([olgn.org](https://www.olgn.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Seatrade-Supply-chain-warning-over-Brazilian-port-bottlenecks.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Cross‑commodity logistics & policy backdrop** - Brazil’s **2025 Harvest Transport Plan** allocates about **US$800 million** in 2025 for road, rail, and port improvements to reduce logistics costs and enhance export competitiveness, but constraints remain during peak seasons. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain+and+Feed+Annual_Brasilia_Brazil_BR2025-0009.pdf&utm_source=openai)) - Export logistics are increasingly shaped by **regulatory interventions in trucking costs** (see Section 2) and by **competition for port capacity** between soybeans, corn, sugar, and coffee, especially at Santos and Paranaguá; this is pushing some flows to Northern Arc ports and to alternative rail corridors where available. **Sources (Dimension 1)**: ([breakwaveadvisors.com](https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2026/1/30/grain-flows-to-china-and-freight-signals?utm_source=openai)) === 2. MARKET EVENTS – BRAZIL PORT CONGESTION, TRUCKING STRIKES, ANTAQ & CABOTAGE REGULATION (IMPACT ON EXPORT SUPPLY CHAINS) === **Port congestion & operational bottlenecks** - A 2025 supply-chain bulletin on Brazil’s ports notes that **port infrastructure is operating at full capacity**, affecting supply chains for key exports (coffee, soy, corn, minerals). It highlights **bottlenecks in 2025 at Santos and other southeast ports** that led to unshipped coffee volumes (600k+ bags in March 2025). ([olgn.org](https://www.olgn.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Seatrade-Supply-chain-warning-over-Brazilian-port-bottlenecks.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Reports from shipping analysts in 2025/26 indicate: - **Long truck queues and constrained berth windows** at Santos during peak soybean and corn months, with exporters facing higher demurrage risks. ([k2-capital.co](https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Northern Arc ports (Itaqui, Barcarena, Santarém)** have increased shares of grain loadings but face draft and hinterland bottlenecks, limiting their ability to fully relieve southern port congestion (inferred from USDA logistics mapping). ([ams.usda.gov](https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Trucking costs, strikes, and minimum freight regulation** - **New enforcement of minimum freight rates (2026)** - ANTT’s Portaria SUROC nº 6/2026 (published Apr 24, 2026) makes the **CIOT (electronic freight contract code) a binding compliance filter**: if a contracted road freight rate is **below the legal minimum floor**, the system blocks CIOT issuance and effectively prevents the transport operation. The rule takes effect **May 24, 2026**. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/antt/pt-br/assuntos/ultimas-noticias/frete-irregular-e-barrado-antes-de-existir-antt-transforma-ciot-em-filtro-obrigatorio-e-reforca-o-cumprimento-do-piso-minimo?utm_source=openai)) - Violations can generate **fines of R$10,500 per operation** for shippers, subcontractors, and carriers, sharply raising compliance risk for under‑invoiced or sub‑minimum freight deals. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/antt/pt-br/assuntos/ultimas-noticias/frete-irregular-e-barrado-antes-de-existir-antt-transforma-ciot-em-filtro-obrigatorio-e-reforca-o-cumprimento-do-piso-minimo?utm_source=openai)) - **Mediation of strike risk (2026)** - Following the publication of **Provisional Measure 1.343/2026** and ANTT **Resolutions 6.077/2026 and 6.078/2026** on Mar 25, 2026—which strengthen enforcement of the freight floor and tie adjustments to diesel price changes—Brazilian truckers’ unions **called off plans for a national strike**. ([agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2026-03/apos-mp-e-resolucoes-caminhoneiros-descartam-paralisacao-nacional?utm_source=openai)) - The new system sets **minimum freight values** by truck configuration (axle count), cargo type (bulk solid/liquid, refrigerated, containerized), and distance, with automatic upward adjustments for **≥5% diesel price changes**, thereby increasing cost predictability but also hard‑wiring freight floors into exporters’ cost structure. ([agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2026-03/apos-mp-e-resolucoes-caminhoneiros-descartam-paralisacao-nacional?utm_source=openai)) **ANTAQ regulatory updates impacting cabotage and ports** - **Cabotage tonnage & charter limits – Decree 12.555/2025** - This 2025 decree, implementing provisions of the **“BR do Mar” cabotage law (Law 14.301/2022)**, limits Brazilian cabotage operators’ ability to charter foreign vessels: the **chartered deadweight tonnage is capped at 3× the owned Brazilian‑flag tonnage effectively operating in cabotage** for each economic group, subject to ANTAQ rules. ([planalto.gov.br](https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2025/decreto/d12555.htm?utm_source=openai)) - Long‑term chartering for certain special cabotage operations cannot be used simply to substitute other special‑operation charters already authorized, tightening ANTAQ’s oversight of fleet composition and potentially constraining marginal capacity growth in cabotage lanes serving feeder movements to export ports. ([planalto.gov.br](https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2025/decreto/d12555.htm?utm_source=openai)) - **ANTAQ Resolution 129/2025 – foreign vessel charters & timelines** - Resolution 129 (Jun 6, 2025) sets procedural timelines for cabotage and support navigation authorizations (e.g., **6 business hours** response windows for certain cabotage procedures) and allows **up to 60‑day extensions** of existing foreign-flag vessel charters in maritime support where justified. ([normasbrasil.com.br](https://www.normasbrasil.com.br/norma/resolucao-129-2025_479367.html?utm_source=openai)) - For exporters relying on offshore loading, lightering, or maritime support in Brazilian waters, these rules **stabilize short‑term capacity planning** but still place clear limits on extended foreign-flag operations. - **ANTAQ Resolution 133/2025 – BR do Mar implementation** - Resolution 133 (Dec 10, 2025) details obligations for **Brazilian Shipping Companies (EBNs)** enrolled in the BR do Mar cabotage incentive program: they must **maintain owned or bareboat-chartered vessels in active commercial operation** and justify any **paralysis >90 days** to ANTAQ. ([normasbrasil.com.br](https://www.normasbrasil.com.br/norma/resolucao-133-2025_487740.html?utm_source=openai)) - This reduces the risk that nominal cabotage capacity is idled, supporting more reliable domestic feeder and coastal services that connect hinterland and Northern Arc origins to main export ports. - **New port operations resolution (ANTAQ Resolution 127/2025)** - Effective May 1, 2025, ANTAQ Resolution 127 updated the regulation of **operations in organized public ports**, emphasizing adequate service provision, transparency and publicization of tariffs, and enforceable user rights. Non‑compliant port operators face administrative sanctions. ([mayerbrown.com](https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2025/05/new-resolution-regulates-the-operation-of-areas-and-facilities-of-organized-ports?utm_source=openai)) - Over time, this framework should **improve service quality and predictability of port charges**, but in the short run, increased oversight can also lead to stricter enforcement of safety/operational rules, which in congested terminals may manifest as slower berth turnover if capacity isn’t expanded. **Cabotage strategy & BR do Mar roadmap** - A 2025 maritime & port bulletin outlines Brazil’s broader objective to **expand cabotage as a complement to long‑haul exports** under BR do Mar, including targeted incentives and planning for **2025–2027** to align port authority actions with ANTAQ’s regulatory agenda. ([tauilchequer.com.br](https://www.tauilchequer.com.br/-/media/files/perspectives-events/publications/2025/08/maritime-and-port-ed6.pdf%3Frev%3D-1?utm_source=openai)) - For ag exporters, increased cabotage capacity can: - Enable **north-south coastal redistribution** of bulk and containerized cargo, reducing truck mileage and highway congestion. - Provide **alternative routings** via Northern Arc or secondary ports when primary export terminals are congested. - However, tonnage caps and documentation requirements may **slow the pace at which foreign-flag tonnage can be deployed** in peak seasons, potentially limiting short‑term relief. ([planalto.gov.br](https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2025/decreto/d12555.htm?utm_source=openai)) **Net impact on export supply chains (2025–2026)** - **Costs:** enforcement of minimum freight rates and CIOT filtering in 2026 will **raise floor trucking costs**, especially on long interior–port hauls typical for soy and corn, and limit shippers’ ability to negotiate temporary below-floor discounts during demand slumps. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/antt/pt-br/assuntos/ultimas-noticias/frete-irregular-e-barrado-antes-de-existir-antt-transforma-ciot-em-filtro-obrigatorio-e-reforca-o-cumprimento-do-piso-minimo?utm_source=openai)) - **Reliability:** these same rules **reduce strike risk**, as unions now have legal and automated tools to enforce the freight floor; March 2026 talks averted a nationwide stoppage that would have disrupted the 2025/26 soy and early corn export season. ([agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br](https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2026-03/apos-mp-e-resolucoes-caminhoneiros-descartam-paralisacao-nacional?utm_source=openai)) - **Capacity:** ANTAQ’s cabotage and port regulations aim to increase predictable availability of coastal capacity and standardize port performance, but **structural port congestion in peak months persists**, particularly for coffee and grain when harvests overlap and Northern Arc capacity remains constrained. ([olgn.org](https://www.olgn.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Seatrade-Supply-chain-warning-over-Brazilian-port-bottlenecks.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Dimension 2)**: ([olgn.org](https://www.olgn.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Seatrade-Supply-chain-warning-over-Brazilian-port-bottlenecks.pdf?utm_source=openai)) === 3. DEMAND SIGNALS – CONTAINER & BULK FREIGHT RATES BRAZIL–CHINA & BRAZIL–EU (CAPACITY, BLANK SAILINGS, BERTH DELAYS, FORWARDER PAIN POINTS) === **Bulk freight – Brazil to China & EU (grains / iron ore as benchmarks)** - **Brazil–China iron ore benchmark (proxy for Capesize market)** - As of **Mar 26, 2026**, the **Tubarão–Qingdao iron ore freight rate** reached **US$30.65/mt**, the highest level since March 2024, according to Banchero Costa. ([steelorbis.com](https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/brazil-china-iron-ore-freight-rate-at-two-year-high-1444105.htm?utm_source=openai)) - This two‑year high reflects strong Chinese raw material demand and tight Capesize availability, and it **pulls up grain freight benchmarks** from Brazil to China, especially for long‑haul Panamax and Post‑Panamax stems. - **Grain flows to China and freight indicators (early 2026)** - Breakwave Advisors note that Brazil entered **early 2026 with expanding export availability**, reinforcing its role as China’s primary grain supplier and contributing to elevated Atlantic–Pacific dry bulk utilization. ([breakwaveadvisors.com](https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2026/1/30/grain-flows-to-china-and-freight-signals?utm_source=openai)) - With Brazilian soybean production at 160–165 MMT, plus large corn and sugar export programs, **vessel demand from Brazilian load ports is structurally strong**, which supports firm rates even absent major disruptions. ([breakwaveadvisors.com](https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2026/1/30/grain-flows-to-china-and-freight-signals?utm_source=openai)) - **Brazil–EU bulk grain freight (soy/corn)** - USDA’s Brazil soybean transportation report shows **ocean freight rates from southern Brazil (e.g., Santos/Paranaguá) to Shanghai and Hamburg rising ~11% year-on-year** in the period reviewed (to mid‑2025). ([ams.usda.gov](https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Given the further tightening signaled by Capesize markets in early 2026, it is reasonable to infer that **Brazil–EU Panamax grain rates have stayed on an elevated plateau vs 2023 levels**, with seasonal spikes around Q2–Q3 when soy/corn volumes peak. **Container freight – Brazil to China & EU (2025–Q1 2026)** Direct, Brazil‑specific lane data is relatively sparse in public sources, but several global trends are strongly affecting these corridors: - **Red Sea/Suez disruptions & re‑routing** - A November 2025 Freightos analysis shows that the diversion of about **30% of global container volumes away from the Red Sea/Suez route** added **7–10 days** to Asia–Europe (and some Asia–North America) sailings and pushed spot rates to **US$8,000–10,000/FEU in 2024**, with an elevated floor of **US$3,000–5,000/FEU** even during lower demand periods. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1p6jo8v/freightos_weekly_update_november_25_2025_excerpt/?utm_source=openai)) - These disruptions affect **Brazil–Asia and Brazil–EU connections** indirectly by: - Absorbing global container capacity (longer round‑voyage times). - Raising benchmark East–West rates, which carriers use to **anchor pricing on North–South trades** (including South America–Asia and South America–Europe). - **Blank sailings and capacity management** - The same Freightos commentary attributes the persistence of elevated rates partly to **“aggressive blanked sailings”** by carriers, who have been strategically canceling departures to keep load factors high. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1p6jo8v/freightos_weekly_update_november_25_2025_excerpt/?utm_source=openai)) - For Brazil, forwarders report (in 2025–26 logistics discussions) that: - **Blank sailings and port omissions** on South America–Asia loops periodically skip Brazilian calls (particularly secondary ports), forcing shippers to **transship via main hubs (e.g., Santos, Rio Grande)** or to roll bookings. - Capacity to China can be **tight immediately after harvest peaks**, when export demand for containerized soy products, coffee, and meat rises concurrently. - **Berth delays and container terminal performance** - General port bottleneck reports for Brazil in 2025 emphasize that terminals are running “at full capacity,” implying: - **Long truck turn times** and **yard congestion** at major container terminals in Santos during peak agribulk/cargo overlap. ([olgn.org](https://www.olgn.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Seatrade-Supply-chain-warning-over-Brazilian-port-bottlenecks.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Risk of missed vessel cut‑offs** for exporters with late‑arriving cargo, particularly those trucking long distances from interior states (Mato Grosso, Goiás). **Freight forwarder pain points (Brazil–China/EU, 2025–26)** Synthesizing recent logistics reports, regulatory updates, and freight market commentary: 1. **Higher and more rigid inland trucking costs** - Strengthened ANTT enforcement (CIOT filter + minimum freight) from May 2026 means forwarders **cannot secure below‑floor trucking rates** to win tenders or rescue urgent shipments, compressing margins and increasing door–port all‑in costs. ([gov.br](https://www.gov.br/antt/pt-br/assuntos/ultimas-noticias/frete-irregular-e-barrado-antes-de-existir-antt-transforma-ciot-em-filtro-obrigatorio-e-reforca-o-cumprimento-do-piso-minimo?utm_source=openai)) 2. **Export planning around harvest‑driven seasonality** - **Soybeans (Q1–Q3)** and **corn (peak in September)** create sharp seasonal peaks in export volumes; forwarders face **vessel shortages, truck scarcity, and rising demurrage/detention** around these windows, particularly to China where demand concentrates. ([ams.usda.gov](https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) 3. **Port congestion and berth reliability** - High berth utilization at Santos/Paranaguá leads to **unpredictable waiting times for bulkers and container ships**, which then cascade into: - Rolled containers and **“rolled bookings”** for clients. - Re‑routing cargo through Northern Arc ports where **draft and infrastructure constraints** limit flexibility. ([olgn.org](https://www.olgn.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Seatrade-Supply-chain-warning-over-Brazilian-port-bottlenecks.pdf?utm_source=openai)) 4. **Schedule disruption from global network shocks** - Red Sea re‑routing and associated **7–10 day longer voyages** elsewhere in the network absorb capacity and contribute to **spot rate volatility and blank sailings** even on trades not directly passing through Suez. This affects Brazil–EU (often Suez-linked) more directly, but also Brazil–Asia via global repositioning of tonnage. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1p6jo8v/freightos_weekly_update_november_25_2025_excerpt/?utm_source=openai)) 5. **Documentation & regulatory friction** - New ANTAQ cabotage rules and the BR do Mar program create **additional documentation and compliance layers** for using domestic sea legs as pre‑carriage/post‑carriage to main export ports; forwarders must manage vessel charter documentation, cabotage eligibility, and potential limitations on foreign‑flag participation. ([planalto.gov.br](https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2023-2026/2025/decreto/d12555.htm?utm_source=openai)) **Directionally, as of early May 2026:** - **Bulk freight Brazil–China**: High (Tubarão–Qingdao at **~US$30–31/mt**, near two‑year highs) with strong vessel demand from iron ore and grains; volatility likely around Chinese demand and fleet supply. ([steelorbis.com](https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/brazil-china-iron-ore-freight-rate-at-two-year-high-1444105.htm?utm_source=openai)) - **Bulk freight Brazil–EU**: Elevated vs 2023; USDA’s +11% YoY ocean rate increase to Hamburg from Brazil in 2025 suggests structurally higher base levels continuing into 2026 under tight Atlantic bulk conditions. ([ams.usda.gov](https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Container freight Brazil–China/EU**: Above pre‑2020 norms, supported by global capacity absorption from Red Sea diversions and by carrier blank‑sailing strategies; forwarders face **tight space, rolling risk, and high all‑in costs**, even when spot demand softens. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1p6jo8v/freightos_weekly_update_november_25_2025_excerpt/?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Dimension 3)**: ([steelorbis.com](https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/brazil-china-iron-ore-freight-rate-at-two-year-high-1444105.htm?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • Grain Flows to China and Freight Signals — Breakwave Advisors https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2026/1/30/grain-flows-to-china-and-freight-signals?utm_source=openai • Brazil Soybean Transportation https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai • Brazil, Argentina ship 7 mil mt of soybeans to China for Feb-April: CAS | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/021826-brazil-argentina-ship-7-mil-mt-of-soybeans-to-china-for-feb-april-cas?utm_source=openai • Brazil, Argentina ship 7 mil mt of soybeans to China for Feb-April: CAS | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/021826-brazil-argentina-ship-7-mil-mt-of-soybeans-to-china-for-feb-april-cas?utm_source=openai • Brazil Soybean Transportation https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai • Brazil – Soybeans: Q3 2025 Supply Chain and Export Dynamics https://cropgpt.ai/brazil-soybeans-q3-2025-supply-chain-and-export-dynamics?utm_source=openai • TRADE TRENDS ESTIMATES https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-trend-estimates-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai • Brazil Soybean Transportation https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Brazil_Quarter2_2025.pdf?utm_source=openai • K2 CAPITAL | COMMODITY RESEARCH https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai • K2 CAPITAL | COMMODITY RESEARCH https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai • K2 CAPITAL | COMMODITY RESEARCH https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai • K2 CAPITAL | COMMODITY RESEARCH https://k2-capital.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/K2Capital_Brazil_Safrinha_Corn_Report.pdf?utm_source=openai • Required Report: Required - Public Distribution https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain+and+Feed+Annual_Brasilia_Brazil_BR2025-0009.pdf&utm_source=openai • TRADE TRENDS ESTIMATES https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-trend-estimates-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai • Partial exports in 2025/26 hit lowest level since 2022/23 - Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics https://cepea.org.br/en/partial-exports-in-2025-26-hit-lowest-level-since-2022-23.aspx?utm_source=openai • Partial exports in 2025/26 hit lowest level since 2022/23 - Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics https://cepea.org.br/en/partial-exports-in-2025-26-hit-lowest-level-since-2022-23.aspx?utm_source=openai • Brazil’s 2026 coffee harvest is forecast to be a record. Farmers aren’t so sure. Is the market wrong? We checked the data and built a dashboard. https://www.reddit.com/r/Coffee/comments/1s1cdql/brazils_2026_coffee_harvest_is_forecast_to_be_a/?utm_source=openai • TRADE TRENDS ESTIMATES https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Trade-trend-estimates-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai • Supply chain warning over Brazilian port bottlenecks https://www.olgn.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Seatrade-Supply-chain-warning-over-Brazilian-port-bottlenecks.pdf?utm_source=openai • Supply chain warning over Brazilian port bottlenecks https://www.olgn.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Seatrade-Supply-chain-warning-over-Brazilian-port-bottlenecks.pdf?utm_source=openai • Brazil–China iron ore freight rate at two-year high https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/brazil-china-iron-ore-freight-rate-at-two-year-high-1444105.htm?utm_source=openai