## Company Profile NISSIN CORPORATION — freight forwarder (lead data) - From lead record: contact Nishino, Business Solutions Sales Department, email s_nishino@nissin-tw.com (domain suggests Japan–Taiwan trade focus). - Typical activities (inferred from category and Business Solutions team): international freight forwarding (sea/air), customs clearance, supply‑chain solutions for exporters, refrigerated (reefer) handling and door‑to‑door coordination for perishable and manufactured goods. Scale: not public in lead; appears to serve Japan–Taiwan and intra‑Asia corridors. ## Pain Points 1) Surge in intra‑Asia demand and China+1 relocations: NISSIN’s exporter customers (manufacturers and food exporters) need integrated market access into Taiwan and ASEAN — not just booking and transit. They need buyer discovery, compliance guidance, and assured delivery options to new destination markets. 2) Schedule reliability and cold‑chain risk amid blank sailings and tight air capacity (May–June 2026): elevated spot rates, deliberate carrier capacity withdrawals and air‑fuel shocks raise spoilage risk and claims exposure for reefers and high‑value perishables. 3) Regulatory/compliance burden and fragmented distribution in ASEAN: exporters face increased rejections and complex local SPS/halal/labeling rules; SMEs lack buyer networks and local partners with proven cold‑chain and retail/HORECA access. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] Japan supply chain reshoring and China+1 relocation – impact on Japan–Taiwan–ASEAN trade flows toward 2026 === **1.1 Evidence of diversification away from China toward ASEAN/Taiwan** - A 2026 JETRO survey of 4,295 Japanese firms with overseas operations shows: - 15.6% (672 firms) report having already shifted some production from Japan or China into ASEAN locations. ([jetro.go.jp](https://www.jetro.go.jp/biz/areareports/2025/18a303a4b6d8b59e.html?utm_source=openai)) - Many manufacturers explicitly cite “China/Taiwan relations” and US–China risk as reasons for: - “Gradually reducing production share in China and strengthening domestic production” (near‑shoring to Japan) and - “Shifting production to India, Taiwan, China, Vietnam, and Thailand,” plus “shifting production from China to Southeast Asia or Central Asia” (China+1). ([jetro.go.jp](https://www.jetro.go.jp/ext_images/en/reports/survey/pdf/jafirms2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - On the export side, trading companies report “shifting sourcing to Taiwan and ASEAN for products exported to the US,” implying deeper Japan–Taiwan–ASEAN integration in US‑facing supply chains. ([jetro.go.jp](https://www.jetro.go.jp/ext_images/en/reports/survey/pdf/jafirms2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - A 2025 RIETI study on Japanese multinationals (data through 2022, published early 2026) finds: - Rising geopolitical risk leads Japanese manufacturers to **diversify** production from China to ASEAN economies, rather than fully exiting China. - Two patterns dominate: - “Production relocation”: closing some Chinese plants while opening ASEAN plants; - “Investment reallocation”: new capex flows shifted from China into ASEAN while Chinese facilities remain. ([rieti.go.jp](https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/v01_0236.html?utm_source=openai)) - IMF 2026 working paper on China’s manufacturing reallocation shows: - Post‑2019, there is a **clear shift of Chinese outward investment and manufacturing toward ASEAN** hubs, especially Vietnam and Indonesia, as part of a broader “China+1” response to tariffs and geopolitical frictions. ([imf.org](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026013-source-pdf.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Japan and Taiwan are significant upstream technology and equipment suppliers into these newly expanded ASEAN bases, reinforcing triangular trade: Japan/Taiwan → ASEAN (intermediates) → US/EU (final goods). - A 2025 academic study on the US‑China trade war finds: - US tariffs cut Chinese exports to the US and caused a **6.3% decline in China’s imports from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan**, triggering upstream diversification. - At the same time, China’s exports to ASEAN rose ~6%, attributed to both trade diversion and **industrial relocation into ASEAN**, which still leans on Chinese and Japanese inputs. ([papers.ssrn.com](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5293068&utm_source=openai)) **Implication for 2026:** Rather than outright reshoring, Japanese firms are building **redundant capacity in ASEAN and, to a lesser degree, Taiwan**, while keeping China as a key base. This increases intra‑Asian intermediate trade (Japan/Taiwan → ASEAN) even as some finished‑goods exports from China to US/EU flatten. --- **1.2 Policy and geopolitical drivers affecting 2026 trade flows** - Japan has promoted “supply chain resilience” subsidies since 2020 to reduce critical dependence on China; later rounds extend support to diversifying into ASEAN for sectors like electronics, automotive parts, and medical supplies. (Summarized in JETRO/RIETI discussions of “friend‑shoring.”) ([jetro.go.jp](https://www.jetro.go.jp/biz/areareports/2025/18a303a4b6d8b59e.html?utm_source=openai)) - A recent IMF paper and RIETI column emphasize: - Geopolitical risk (US–China tension, Taiwan Strait risk) is a statistically significant determinant of Japanese firms’ decisions to create **parallel production networks** in ASEAN and, for high‑tech, in Taiwan. ([rieti.go.jp](https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/v01_0236.html?utm_source=openai)) - 2025–2026 China–Japan diplomatic crisis: - Since mid‑2025, China has intermittently slowed customs clearance of Japanese food and beverages, including sake, and in February 2026 expanded export‑control lists for some Japanese firms. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - JETRO’s compilation of China customs data shows **4,884 rejected food import cases in 2025**, up 16.3% YoY, with Japan among the affected origins. ([jetro.go.jp](https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/0384cb5b302a248d.html?utm_source=openai)) - These restrictions accelerate Japanese agri‑food exporters’ push into **ASEAN and Taiwan markets**, and encourage them to restructure logistics (avoid Chinese transshipment hubs). --- **1.3 Emerging Japan–Taiwan–ASEAN value‑chain geometry toward 2026** Based on the above studies and current trade/FDI signals, the 2026 pattern can be framed as: - **Japan → ASEAN / Taiwan** - Growing exports of machinery, electronic components, specialty chemicals, and food/beverage ingredients to new factories in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and to Taiwan foundry/packaging facilities. ([jetro.go.jp](https://www.jetro.go.jp/biz/areareports/2025/18a303a4b6d8b59e.html?utm_source=openai)) - Some Japanese OEMs move assembly of US‑bound consumer goods and auto parts into ASEAN while keeping high‑value design, R&D, and key modules in Japan and Taiwan. - **Taiwan ↔ ASEAN** - Semiconductor equipment and sub‑components increasingly shipped from Taiwan into new back‑end or downstream electronics sites in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore, in line with calls from SEMI (May 2026) for Southeast Asia to expand semiconductor capacity. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1t6dvs8/blank_sailings_and_rollovers_dominate_may_freight/?utm_source=openai)) - **Japan/Taiwan/ASEAN → US/EU** - Finished goods exports from ASEAN and Taiwan rise, supported by preferential trade arrangements and US/EU “de‑risking” policies that favor non‑China Asia. - Supply chain design shifts from **China‑centric hub‑and‑spoke** to a **multi‑hub network**: China + ASEAN + Taiwan + Japan. Overall, **2026 trade flows in the Japan–Taiwan–ASEAN triangle are likely to show:** - Higher **intra‑regional intermediate trade volumes** (capital goods, components, and inputs), even if final‑goods export growth to the West is moderate; - Incremental but not dramatic “reshoring” to Japan in select high‑tech and security‑sensitive sectors; - Increased use of ASEAN ports and logistics corridors to bypass China risk for Japan–US/EU lanes. **Sources – Dimension 1:** ([jetro.go.jp](https://www.jetro.go.jp/biz/areareports/2025/18a303a4b6d8b59e.html?utm_source=openai)) --- === 2. [DEMAND SIGNALS] Asia ocean & air freight rates 2026 – capacity, pricing, blank sailings === **2.1 Ocean freight – Transpacific & Asia–Europe (2026 YTD)** **Spot rate levels and direction** - Drewry World Container Index (WCI) – late May 2026: - Composite index up **6% WoW to ~US$2,712 per 40’**. - Shanghai–New York: **US$4,317/FEU (+2% WoW)**. - Shanghai–Los Angeles: **US$3,385/FEU (+1% WoW)**. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1tjtnx6/drewry_world_container_index_excerpts_rally_in/?utm_source=openai)) - Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) snapshots: - 6 Jan 2026: - Asia–US West Coast: **US$2,617/FEU (+22% WoW)**. - Asia–US East Coast: **US$3,757/FEU (+12% WoW)**. - Asia–Europe: ~**US$3,000/FEU**, up 9% WoW and ~23% since mid‑Dec 2025. - Asia–Med: ~**US$4,800/FEU**, up >20% WoW and ~45% since mid‑Dec. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1q5rwl2/freightos_weekly_update_january_6_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - 13 Jan 2026: - Asia–US WC: **US$2,757/FEU (+5% WoW)**. - Asia–US EC: **US$4,033/FEU (+7% WoW)**. - Asia–Europe / Med rates “steady but elevated” around **US$3,000–4,850/FEU**, similar to peak‑season 2025. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1qby5r8/freightos_weekly_update_january_13_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - 19 May 2026 update: - Asia–US WC & EC each **‑1% WoW**, but commentary notes rates are still roughly **US$1,000/FEU above pre‑war baselines** due to ongoing fuel costs and diversions. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1ti4x5c/freightos_weekly_update_may_19_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - 26 May 2026 update: - Asia–US WC prices **+13% WoW**; Asia–US EC **+14% WoW** as early peak‑season demand combines with elevated bunker costs and carrier capacity management. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1torl38/freightos_weekly_update_may_26_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - S&P Global Asia–Europe container market (Q1 2026): - Long‑term contract benchmark (PLCR1) stable near **US$1,700/FEU**, while spot rates hover around **US$3,000/FEU** after LNY, showing a large spot–contract spread. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) **Interpretation:** 2026 begins with **elevated but not pandemic‑level rates**, inflated by Red Sea / fuel cost disruptions and subsequently by peak‑season demand plus deliberate blank sailings. Transpacific and Asia–Europe lanes are both on **rising trajectories into late May 2026** from already‑high baselines. --- **2.2 Blank sailings and effective capacity management** - Summer Win logistics (May 12, 2026): - Reports a “**surge in blank sailings**” across both Transpacific and Asia–Europe routes, with: - Europe‑bound forwarders seeing flat rates from April to mid‑May, then **~US$200/TEU spot increases in late May** largely attributed to capacity cuts, not demand. ([summerwin.com](https://www.summerwin.com/blogs/blank-sailings-cargo-rolling-trans-pacific-asia-europe-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Freight Right market update (early May 2026): - “Blank sailings and rollovers dominate May freight market.” - Notes that if oil prices remain high, carriers may **boost GRIs or surcharges** on top of existing capacity withdrawals. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1t6dvs8/blank_sailings_and_rollovers_dominate_may_freight/?utm_source=openai)) - Drewry WCI commentary (May 21, 2026 excerpt): - At least **seven blank sailings announced on the Transpacific** in the upcoming week, tightening capacity and enabling higher FAK rates. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1tjtnx6/drewry_world_container_index_excerpts_rally_in/?utm_source=openai)) **Implication:** Carriers are actively using **blank sailings and rollovers** to hold utilization high and push rate increases, despite a sizeable global fleet and only moderate underlying demand growth. --- **2.3 Air freight – Asia‑Pacific capacity and rates in 2026** **Demand and capacity indicators** - IATA Air Cargo Market Analysis – Jan & Mar 2026: - Asia‑Pacific carriers’ cargo traffic (CTK) grew **~8.9% YoY in Q1 2026**; global CTK up around **7–11% YoY** in early 2026 depending on month. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-january-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Asia‑Pacific capacity (ACTK) reached **historic highs**, but January showed the **weakest January capacity growth since 2020**, signaling “capacity fatigue” even as demand keeps rising. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-january-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - IATA‑linked reports (AirFreightPrice, April 2026): - Global air cargo demand **+11.2% YoY in Feb 2026**, continuing the uptrend from late 2025. - IATA warns that rising fuel costs and route disruptions could “dampen growth,” but shippers should plan for **continued rate pressure on Asia–Europe and Asia–NA** corridors into Q2–Q3 2026. ([airfreightprice.com](https://airfreightprice.com/blog/iata-air-cargo-demand-growth-february-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - IATA Q1 2026 Air Transport Chartbook: - Confirms **strong intra‑Asia CTK growth**, and notes that scheduled seat capacity for Q2 2026 diverges by origin, implying tightness on some key Asia export hubs even as others normalize. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/quarterly-air-transport-chartbook-q1-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Rate levels and drivers** - ValueChainAsia (late May 2026) summarizing IATA data: - Reports **Asia air freight rates “soaring”** on the Asia–Europe corridor after an Iran conflict‑related disruption that **cut Gulf hub freighter capacity by >52%**, removing a large share of dedicated freighter backbone on this lane. - Jet fuel prices in Asia in March 2026 were **+106.6% YoY**, a key driver of rate inflation. ([valuechainasia.com](https://valuechainasia.com/articles/logistics/asia-air-freight-rates-2026-iran-conflict?utm_source=openai)) - The STAT Trade Times / Dimerco Asia‑Pacific Monthly Freight Report (Jan 2026): - Notes that in North China, high‑tech and e‑commerce volumes to **Taipei and Singapore** are driving a **continued uptrend in airfreight rates** due to tight capacity. - Projects that air freight will remain a “key driver” for cargo movements in Asia‑Pacific through 2026, led by high‑value shipments. ([stattimes.com](https://www.stattimes.com/air-cargo/asia-pacific-air-freight-stays-strong-into-2026-amid-tight-capacity-1357734?utm_source=openai)) - UPS Supply Chain 2026 Q1 freight trends: - Global air cargo demand in 4Q 2025 grew **+6% YoY**, with intra‑Asia growth at **+15.8% in Nov 2025**, feeding into tight conditions entering 2026. - Notes that temporary rate spikes may fade as more capacity returns, but **route‑specific disruptions** (e.g., Middle East airspace, Red Sea impact on belly networks) keep baseline rates elevated. ([developer.ups.com](https://developer.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/quarterly-freight-and-logistics-trends?utm_source=openai)) **Implication for 2026:** Air cargo is in a **high‑demand, high‑cost** environment. Capacity is back above pre‑COVID in absolute terms but is being offset by: - Structural demand from semiconductors, AI hardware, and e‑commerce; - Fuel price shocks (>100% YoY fuel cost spike); - Rerouting away from conflict‑affected corridors and congested Gulf hubs. For Asia shippers (including Japanese exporters) this means **persistent rate pressure and selective capacity bottlenecks**, especially on Asia–Europe and Asia–NA lanes, with intra‑Asia also tight for high‑tech flows. **Sources – Dimension 2:** ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1q5rwl2/freightos_weekly_update_january_6_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) --- === 3. [PROBLEM FRAMING] Japanese & perishable food exporters – 2026 logistics challenges (cold chain, customs, lead times, buyers in SEA/Taiwan) === **3.1 Customs & regulatory frictions** - China–Japan diplomatic tensions (2025–2026): - Chinese customs increased scrutiny and delays for Japanese food and beverages (including sake and seafood) from mid‑2025; reports note clearance delays as a non‑tariff barrier. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - JETRO aggregation of Chinese customs notices shows **4,884 cases of rejected food imports in 2025 (+16.3% YoY)**, affecting multiple origins, including Japan. Main reasons include labeling, documentation, pesticide residues, and microbial contamination. ([jetro.go.jp](https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/0384cb5b302a248d.html?utm_source=openai)) **Relevance for exports to SEA/Taiwan:** - While this statistic is China‑specific, it highlights **tighter enforcement** on food safety and documentation in the broader region. ASEAN markets (e.g., Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand) have similarly stepped up MRL and labeling enforcement in 2024–2026; Japanese exporters that previously optimized for the China market must now **re‑learn local SPS and halal/label rules** in each ASEAN market and Taiwan, increasing compliance cost and risk of delays. --- **3.2 Cold‑chain and infrastructure gaps into ASEAN & Taiwan** (Recent data is quite fragmented; below is a synthesis from 2025–2026 JETRO/industry pieces.) Key pain points for Japanese perishable exporters (seafood, chilled meat, fresh produce, dairy, confectionery): 1. **Port‑side cold chain variability in ASEAN:** - Major hubs like Singapore, Port Klang (Malaysia), Laem Chabang (Thailand), and Tanjung Priok (Indonesia) now have modern reefer terminals and cold warehouses, but: - Secondary ports in Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines still face limited plug‑points and cold storage, creating a **risk of temperature excursions** when vessels are delayed or rolled. - When combined with the 2026 wave of **blank sailings and rollovers**, cold‑chain disruptions can cause shelf‑life loss or quality downgrades for chilled Japanese exports (e.g., sashimi‑grade seafood) destined for regional distribution. ([summerwin.com](https://www.summerwin.com/blogs/blank-sailings-cargo-rolling-trans-pacific-asia-europe-2026/?utm_source=openai)) 2. **Airfreight reliance for high‑value perishables:** - Tight air capacity and surging fuel costs in 2026 (jet fuel +106.6% YoY; Gulf hub capacity –52% on Asia–Europe) push up rates on intra‑Asia and Asia‑Europe corridors. ([valuechainasia.com](https://valuechainasia.com/articles/logistics/asia-air-freight-rates-2026-iran-conflict?utm_source=openai)) - For Japanese exporters shipping fresh seafood or high‑end fruits to Singapore, Bangkok, or Taipei by air: - Higher rates compress margins or force a switch to less frequent consolidated services, lengthening door‑to‑door lead times and raising spoilage risk. 3. **First‑mile and last‑mile integration:** - JETRO and logistics providers have highlighted that many Japanese SMEs still depend on **multiple hand‑offs**: local trucking → consolidation at Japanese ports → feeder or transshipment in regional hubs → on‑carriage in ASEAN/Taiwan via partners. - Each hand‑off is a potential **temperature break** if not fully integrated under one cold‑chain operator, increasing QA and claims disputes. --- **3.3 Lead times, reliability, and schedule risk (sea & air)** - Ocean: - With blank sailings and rollovers “dominating” May 2026, exporters face **unpredictable actual departure dates**, even when bookings are secured. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1t6dvs8/blank_sailings_and_rollovers_dominate_may_freight/?utm_source=openai)) - Rolling a reefer box by 7–10 days can: - Render chilled products unsellable at planned price points (especially for supermarket promotions in Singapore/Bangkok); - Force distressed selling through wholesale channels or re‑routing to nearer markets (e.g., Hong Kong) at a discount. - S&P Global notes structural uncertainty on Asia–Europe lanes; even if nominal capacity is ample, carriers are willing to **withhold sailings** to preserve rate levels, effectively trading off schedule reliability against price. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - Air: - IATA data shows robust demand and capacity but with route‑specific stress; forwarders advise shippers to **book earlier for Q2–Q3 2026** and expect continued rate pressure. ([airfreightprice.com](https://airfreightprice.com/blog/iata-air-cargo-demand-growth-february-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - For Japanese perishable exporters, this means: - Need to lock in **block‑space agreements or longer‑term allotments** with integrators or airlines serving Taipei, Bangkok, Singapore, and Ho Chi Minh City; - Limited ability to “top up” at short notice during holiday peaks (e.g., Lunar New Year, Golden Week, Ramadan), constraining responsiveness to spot demand. --- **3.4 Commercial & market‑access challenges: finding buyers in SEA/Taiwan** From recent JETRO SME export promotion material and sector webinars (2025–2026, summarized): 1. **Market development vs. logistics economics:** - ASEAN and Taiwan are targeted as alternative growth markets for Japanese food after China‑related disruptions, but: - Many ASEAN markets have **lower per‑capita income** and smaller premium segments than China, limiting the price that importers can pay for high‑logistics‑cost Japanese chilled products. - High 2026 freight and handling costs (both sea and air) often **erase margin** for smaller consignments, making it difficult for SMEs to trial new markets without support. 2. **Fragmented distribution and importer capabilities:** - In Singapore and Hong Kong, there are sophisticated Japanese food importers with strong cold chains and retail ties, but: - In Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, specialized importers for Japanese premium perishables remain relatively few; cold‑chain distribution is fragmented across wholesalers, 3PLs, and retailers. - Exporters report difficulty identifying **reliable partners who can manage full‑chain temperature control and promotion** (e.g., in‑store sampling, menu development with restaurants). 3. **Regulatory and documentation complexity:** - Each ASEAN market has its own: - SPS import permits; - Halal requirements (notably Malaysia, Indonesia for meat and processed foods); - Japanese‑to‑local language labeling rules. - Errors contribute directly to clearance delays, fines, or product destruction—particularly problematic for short‑shelf‑life perishables. The 16.3% YoY increase in rejected food shipments into China in 2025 illustrates how **tightening enforcement** can suddenly make existing export practices non‑compliant. ([jetro.go.jp](https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/0384cb5b302a248d.html?utm_source=openai)) 4. **Competition & substitution:** - As ASEAN domestic cold chains improve, **local and regional competitors** (e.g., salmon from Norway/Chile processed in Thailand, or fruits from Australia/New Zealand) are better able to reach supermarkets and HORECA with stable quality. - Japanese products must justify a premium via branding and origin story, but brand‑building budgets are limited for SMEs; combined with high logistics costs, this makes securing long‑term buyers challenging. --- **3.5 Synthesized problem framing for 2026** For Japanese and other perishable food exporters targeting Southeast Asia and Taiwan in 2026, the core intertwined challenges are: - **Cost & reliability of logistics:** - Elevated ocean and airfreight rates, driven by fuel costs and capacity management, and widespread blank sailings increase both **unit cost** and **schedule risk** for chilled and frozen shipments. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1torl38/freightos_weekly_update_may_26_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - **Cold‑chain integrity across multi‑leg routes:** - Dependence on transshipment hubs and fragmented cold‑chain partners raises the risk of temperature excursions; any delay from blank sailings or rolled cargo can be value‑destructive. - **Regulatory complexity and customs risk:** - Tightening food‑safety, labeling, and halal rules in the region, exemplified by increased rejections in China, require **market‑specific documentation expertise** to avoid spoilage at the border. ([jetro.go.jp](https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/0384cb5b302a248d.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Commercial viability of market diversification:** - High logistics costs collide with more price‑sensitive consumers and fewer specialized Japanese food importers in emerging ASEAN markets; this constrains **scalable buyer development** unless logistics costs can be reduced or publicly subsidized. In short, 2026 presents a situation where Japanese perishable exporters are strategically incentivized to pivot to SEA/Taiwan, but **logistics economics and execution risks are the main bottlenecks**—not just demand potential. **Sources – Dimension 3:** ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • 日本や中国からASEANへの生産移管進む | 地域・分析レポート - 海外ビジネス情報 - ジェトロ https://www.jetro.go.jp/biz/areareports/2025/18a303a4b6d8b59e.html?utm_source=openai • FY2025 | Survey on the International Operations of Japanese Firms https://www.jetro.go.jp/ext_images/en/reports/survey/pdf/jafirms2025.pdf?utm_source=openai • FY2025 | Survey on the International Operations of Japanese Firms https://www.jetro.go.jp/ext_images/en/reports/survey/pdf/jafirms2025.pdf?utm_source=openai • RIETI - Geopolitical risk and supply chain diversification https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/v01_0236.html?utm_source=openai • Understanding China’s https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026013-source-pdf.pdf?utm_source=openai • Reshaping Factory Asia: How Did the Us-China Trade War Affect the Asian-Pacific Supply Chain? by Hong Ma, Jingxin Ning, Yuan Xu :: SSRN https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5293068&utm_source=openai • 日本や中国からASEANへの生産移管進む | 地域・分析レポート - 海外ビジネス情報 - ジェトロ https://www.jetro.go.jp/biz/areareports/2025/18a303a4b6d8b59e.html?utm_source=openai • RIETI - Geopolitical risk and supply chain diversification https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/v01_0236.html?utm_source=openai • 2025–2026 China–Japan diplomatic crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis?utm_source=openai • 海関（税関）データを集計分析、2025年の食品輸入不許可事案は4,884件(中国、日本) | ビジネス短信 ―ジェトロの海外ニュース - ジェトロ https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/0384cb5b302a248d.html?utm_source=openai • 日本や中国からASEANへの生産移管進む | 地域・分析レポート - 海外ビジネス情報 - ジェトロ https://www.jetro.go.jp/biz/areareports/2025/18a303a4b6d8b59e.html?utm_source=openai • Blank Sailings and Rollovers Dominate May Freight Market https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1t6dvs8/blank_sailings_and_rollovers_dominate_may_freight/?utm_source=openai • 日本や中国からASEANへの生産移管進む | 地域・分析レポート - 海外ビジネス情報 - ジェトロ https://www.jetro.go.jp/biz/areareports/2025/18a303a4b6d8b59e.html?utm_source=openai • Drewry - World Container Index | Excerpts: “Rally in freight rates continued, with the composite index rising for the third week this month.” | “The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) increased 6% to $2,712 per 40ft container, mainly due to higher freight rates on the Asia to Europe trade route.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1tjtnx6/drewry_world_container_index_excerpts_rally_in/?utm_source=openai • FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - January 6, 2026 | Excerpts: ”Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 22% to $2,617/FEU.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 12% to $3,757/FEU.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1q5rwl2/freightos_weekly_update_january_6_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai • Freightos Weekly Update - January 13, 2026 | Excerpts: “Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 5% to $2,757/FEU.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 7% to $4,033/FEU.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1qby5r8/freightos_weekly_update_january_13_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai • FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - May 19, 2026 | Excerpts: ”Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 1%.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 1%.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1ti4x5c/freightos_weekly_update_may_19_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai • FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - May 26, 2026 | Excerpts: ”Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 13%.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 14%.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1torl38/freightos_weekly_update_may_26_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai • CONTAINERS QUARTERLY: Asia-Europe enters 2026 with seasonal firmness, structural uncertainty | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai • Blank Sailings Surge: Cargo Rolling Hits Trans-Pacific & Asia-Europe https://www.summerwin.com/blogs/blank-sailings-cargo-rolling-trans-pacific-asia-europe-2026/?utm_source=openai • Blank Sailings and Rollovers Dominate May Freight Market https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1t6dvs8/blank_sailings_and_rollovers_dominate_may_freight/?utm_source=openai • Drewry - World Container Index | Excerpts: “Rally in freight rates continued, with the composite index rising for the third week this month.” | “The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) increased 6% to $2,712 per 40ft container, mainly due to higher freight rates on the Asia to Europe trade route.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1tjtnx6/drewry_world_container_index_excerpts_rally_in/?utm_source=openai • IATA - Air Cargo Market Analysis - January 2026 https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-january-2026/?utm_source=openai • IATA - Air Cargo Market Analysis - January 2026 https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-january-2026/?utm_source=openai • IATA Reports 11.2% Air Cargo Demand Growth in February 2026 – Air Freight Price https://airfreightprice.com/blog/iata-air-cargo-demand-growth-february-2026/?utm_source=openai • Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/quarterly-air-transport-chartbook-q1-2026/?utm_source=openai • Asia Air Freight Rates 2026: Costs Soar as Gulf Hubs Halt https://valuechainasia.com/articles/logistics/asia-air-freight-rates-2026-iran-conflict?utm_source=openai • Asia-Pacific air freight stays strong into 2026 amid tight capacity https://www.stattimes.com/air-cargo/asia-pacific-air-freight-stays-strong-into-2026-amid-tight-capacity-1357734?utm_source=openai • 2026 Q1 Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends | UPS Supply Chain Solutions https://developer.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/quarterly-freight-and-logistics-trends?utm_source=openai • 海関（税関）データを集計分析、2025年の食品輸入不許可事案は4,884件(中国、日本) | ビジネス短信 ―ジェトロの海外ニュース - ジェトロ https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2026/02/0384cb5b302a248d.html?utm_source=openai • 2025–2026 China–Japan diplomatic crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis?utm_source=openai)