## Company Profile EXPRESS SRL (ExpressGlobal Italy) — Italy-based freight forwarder with a global presence (website: http://www.expressglobal.it / https://expressglobal.com/global-presence/expressglobal-italy). Listed contact: Giacomo Traverso, Director of Sales and Commercial. Offers international freight forwarding and logistics services (ocean, air, road & customs/clearance solutions) focused on connecting Italian exporters to EU and extra‑EU markets. Scale not public in lead file; operates as an export-focused forwarder serving agri‑food, manufacturing and industrial shippers across Italy. ## Pain Points 1) Regulatory & data burden: 2024–26 EU rules (maritime ETS expansion, revised MRV, FuelEU, CBAM and preparatory ETS2 signals) mean clients and carriers require shipment‑level emissions and fuel data. EXPRESS must collect and pass accurate cargo/route data, manage ETS/FuelEU surcharges and support exporters' CSRD/ESG reporting — a new operational load many SMEs cannot meet. 2) Market/corridor disruption for their shippers: exporters (particularly agri‑food and SMEs) are diversifying destinations (UK, US, Middle East, ASEAN) amid climate-driven supply constraints in fresh produce and tariff/noise on China/US corridors. EXPRESS needs a scalable way to surface buyer opportunities and alternative sourcing/route options for clients. 3) Commercial scaling & lead generation: many potential exporter clients (SMEs) need hands‑on market intelligence, buyer identification and shipment‑ready compliance help. EXPRESS likely lacks an integrated, low‑touch channel to originate and convert such exporters at scale without heavy internal resource investment. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] – ITALY EXPORTS & 2026 TRADE FLOW SHIFTS (EU, UK, US, CHINA) === **Overall export performance & exposure (2024–2025, setting up 2026)** - Italy’s exports in 2024 fell slightly by **0.4% vs 2023**, with exports to **EU markets down 1.9%** but **non‑EU exports up 1.2%**, generating a trade surplus of **€54.9 bn** (vs €34.0 bn in 2023). ([ansa.it](https://www.ansa.it/english/news/business/2025/02/17/italian-exports-down-0.4-in-2024-says-istat_51b57e22-1a5d-4257-befd-52dd536c2973.html?utm_source=openai)) - For **non‑EU partners in 2024**, exports totalled **€305.3 bn (+1.16% y/y)**. Strongest growth corridors were **Turkey (+23.9%)**, **ASEAN (+11%)**, **OPEC (+6.6%)**, **Middle East (+5.5%)**, **UK (+5.1%)**, **MERCOSUR (+4.6%)**, **Japan (+2.5%)**, **India (+1%)**. ([esteri.it](https://www.esteri.it/en/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2025/01/andamento-del-commercio-estero-extra-ue-nel-2024/?utm_source=openai)) - The Istat 2026 Competitiveness Report (using 2024–2025 data) shows that in **2025 total Italian exports of goods grew 3.3%**, setting a new record of **~€643 bn**, with especially strong growth in **pharmaceuticals and transport equipment**. ([firstonline.info](https://www.firstonline.info/en/export-italiano-2025-resiste-ai-dazi-usa-33-traino-della-farmaceutica-ma-cresce-la-dipendenza-dalla-cina-rapporto-istat/?utm_source=openai)) **Geographical exposure – role of extra‑EU markets, especially US & China** - Istat notes that in **2024, over 48% of the value of Italian exports went to non‑EU markets**, a much higher share than for Germany, France or Spain. ([ansa.it](https://www.ansa.it/english/newswire/english_service/2025/03/14/u.s.-tariffs-risk-having-serious-impact-on-italy-istat-3_b6ea0281-2db4-4a11-a4f5-647fe3320f25.html?utm_source=openai)) - The **United States**: - Absorbed **~10% of total Italian exports in 2024** (and **>20% of Italy’s extra‑EU exports**). ([ansa.it](https://www.ansa.it/english/newswire/english_service/2025/03/14/u.s.-tariffs-risk-having-serious-impact-on-italy-istat-3_b6ea0281-2db4-4a11-a4f5-647fe3320f25.html?utm_source=openai)) - Despite new US tariffs, Istat reports **Italian exports to the US still rose in 2025**, contributing to a **2025 trade surplus of €50.7 bn** overall. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/italys-us-exports-rose-last-year-despite-tariffs-report-shows-4574357?utm_source=openai)) - Monthly data show a rebound: **exports to the US +8% y/y in February 2025**. ([reportmag.it](https://reportmag.it/tecnologia/export-italia-dati-prodotti-mercati/?utm_source=openai)) - **China**: - Italy’s **imports from China** jumped **+16.4% in 2025 to €60.6 bn**, taking **10.3% of Italy’s total imports**, higher than China’s import share in Germany, France, Spain. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/italys-us-exports-rose-last-year-despite-tariffs-report-shows-4574357?utm_source=openai)) - Bank of Italy / BNP analysis (Mar 2026) indicates Italian sectors such as **electronics, machinery, plastics and automotive** are **highly exposed to re‑routing of Chinese exports** in response to US–China tariffs, indicating potential deflection of Chinese goods via EU and Italian corridors. ([economic-research.bnpparibas.com](https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/pdf/en-US/US-China-Tariffs-Global-Reallocation-Chinese-Exports-Implications-Italy-3/4/2026%2C53252?utm_source=openai)) **Key corridor shifts into 2025, shaping 2026 patterns** - **EU internal corridors**: - Germany, US and France remain Italy’s top three partners. Within the EU, flows towards **Spain, UK, Turkey and Gulf countries** have been notably positive, showing market diversification beyond the “core” Germany–France axis. ([firstonline.info](https://www.firstonline.info/en/export-italiano-2025-saldo-commerciale-da-record-meccanica-agroalimentare-e-farmaceutica-al-top/?utm_source=openai)) - Istat‑ICE Yearbook 2025 emphasizes that **exports to EU partners grew faster (+4.2%) than to extra‑EU markets (+2.4%)** in 2025, suggesting a partial re‑balancing *back* toward intra‑EU trade after the 2022–23 energy shock and 2024 slowdown. ([firstonline.info](https://www.firstonline.info/en/export-italiano-2025-resiste-ai-dazi-usa-33-traino-della-farmaceutica-ma-cresce-la-dipendenza-dalla-cina-rapporto-istat/?utm_source=openai)) - **UK corridor (extra‑EU but high growth)**: - For non‑EU markets in 2024, **exports to the UK grew 5.1% y/y in value**, classed among Italy’s best‑performing extra‑EU destinations. ([esteri.it](https://www.esteri.it/en/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2025/01/andamento-del-commercio-estero-extra-ue-nel-2024/?utm_source=openai)) - More broadly, ICE‑Istat 2025 analysis highlights the UK alongside Spain, Turkey and Gulf countries as a destination where **flows have shown sustained positive trends** in recent years. ([firstonline.info](https://www.firstonline.info/en/export-italiano-2025-saldo-commerciale-da-record-meccanica-agroalimentare-e-farmaceutica-al-top/?utm_source=openai)) - **US corridor (strategic, tariff‑exposed)**: - 2025 saw **double‑digit increases** in some high‑tech sectors to the US: pharmaceuticals, non‑motorized transport equipment and metallurgy achieved **growth rates between ~16.5% and >50%** in the US market, while traditional sectors (textiles, basic manufacturing) stagnated. ([firstonline.info](https://www.firstonline.info/en/export-italiano-2025-resiste-ai-dazi-usa-33-traino-della-farmaceutica-ma-cresce-la-dipendenza-dalla-cina-rapporto-istat/?utm_source=openai)) - However, Istat’s 2026 Competitiveness Report flags **US tariffs from early 2025** as a structural risk, particularly for **machinery, metals and selected manufactured goods**, with sector‑specific exposure concentrated in high‑value industrial districts. ([firstonline.info](https://www.firstonline.info/en/export-italiano-2025-resiste-ai-dazi-usa-33-traino-della-farmaceutica-ma-cresce-la-dipendenza-dalla-cina-rapporto-istat/?utm_source=openai)) - **China & Asia corridors (import dependence and competitive pressure)**: - Growing dependence on Chinese inputs: Chinese share of Italian imports **reached 10.3% in 2025**; dependence is particularly high for **electronics, machinery components, consumer electronics and intermediate goods**. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/italys-us-exports-rose-last-year-despite-tariffs-report-shows-4574357?utm_source=openai)) - EU‑wide data show **Chinese exports being re‑directed towards ASEAN, EU and other markets** as US–China decoupling deepens; Italy, being relatively more exposed to non‑EU markets, is likely to be a significant node in this diversion. ([economic-research.bnpparibas.com](https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/pdf/en-US/US-China-Tariffs-Global-Reallocation-Chinese-Exports-Implications-Italy-3/4/2026%2C53252?utm_source=openai)) - **Short‑term trade balance dynamics (2025 monthly)**: - July 2025: Italy posted a **trade surplus of €7.9 bn**; exports rose sharply to **US (+24.1%), ASEAN (+37.4%), Spain (+13.8%), UK (+9.0%), France (+4.7%), Switzerland (+9.5%), Poland (+12.5%)**, while exports to **Netherlands (-7.8%), China (-4.0%), Turkey (-2.5%)** fell. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/balance-of-trade/news/485244?utm_source=openai)) - This suggests strengthening of certain **Atlantic (US, UK)** and **Mediterranean / Eastern EU (Spain, Poland)** corridors, while some traditional **Northern European (Netherlands)** and **China** corridors weakened in mid‑2025. **Implications for 2026 trade flows and key corridors** - **EU**: - With EU still Italy’s primary market and **EU exports growing 4.2% vs +2.4% extra‑EU in 2025**, 2026 is likely to see continued emphasis on **near‑market EU corridors** (Germany, France, Spain, Poland), reinforced by logistics and regulatory integration (ETS2, eFTI, etc.). ([firstonline.info](https://www.firstonline.info/en/export-italiano-2025-resiste-ai-dazi-usa-33-traino-della-farmaceutica-ma-cresce-la-dipendenza-dalla-cina-rapporto-istat/?utm_source=openai)) - **UK**: - UK remains a **growth extra‑EU corridor** (+5.1% exports in 2024; +9% in July 2025), and is important for **high‑value agri‑food, beverages (wine), machinery and fashion**. ([esteri.it](https://www.esteri.it/en/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2025/01/andamento-del-commercio-estero-extra-ue-nel-2024/?utm_source=openai)) - **US**: - Despite tariffs, **US will remain a top‑3 destination**, especially for **pharmaceuticals, mechanical engineering, transport equipment and premium food & beverages**. However, **margin pressure** is expected in 2026 due to tariffs and compliance costs, with risk of trade diversion and sourcing shifts, particularly in intermediate and metal‑intensive goods. ([firstonline.info](https://www.firstonline.info/en/export-italiano-2025-resiste-ai-dazi-usa-33-traino-della-farmaceutica-ma-cresce-la-dipendenza-dalla-cina-rapporto-istat/?utm_source=openai)) - **China**: - 2025 data show **weaker Italian exports to China (-4% in July 2025)** and much stronger growth in **imports from China**, deepening the **bilateral imbalance** and highlighting reliance on Chinese inputs. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/balance-of-trade/news/485244?utm_source=openai)) - 2026 risks include **higher Chinese import tariffs on certain EU products (e.g., agri‑food, metals, autos)** and increasing competition from China (and Brazil) in third markets, possibly **re‑routing Italian export strategies towards the US, Middle East and ASEAN** for some sectors. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/030526-eu-pork-exporters-brace-for-tougher-2026-as-china-tariffs-bite-brazil-competition-increases?utm_source=openai)) **Key quantified take‑aways for 2026 planning** - **48%** of Italian exports already go to **non‑EU markets**, with **~10% to the US** alone (2024). ([ansa.it](https://www.ansa.it/english/newswire/english_service/2025/03/14/u.s.-tariffs-risk-having-serious-impact-on-italy-istat-3_b6ea0281-2db4-4a11-a4f5-647fe3320f25.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Non‑EU export growth 2024**: +1.16% in value; strongest growth to **Turkey, ASEAN, UK, OPEC, Middle East, MERCOSUR**. ([esteri.it](https://www.esteri.it/en/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2025/01/andamento-del-commercio-estero-extra-ue-nel-2024/?utm_source=openai)) - **Record exports 2025**: ~**€643 bn, +3.3% y/y**; high‑tech/pharma and transport lead gains, particularly to the **US market** (growth **16.5–50%** in selected sectors). ([firstonline.info](https://www.firstonline.info/en/export-italiano-2025-resiste-ai-dazi-usa-33-traino-della-farmaceutica-ma-cresce-la-dipendenza-dalla-cina-rapporto-istat/?utm_source=openai)) - **Imports from China 2025**: **€60.6 bn, +16.4%, 10.3% share of imports**, highlighting structural dependency and vulnerability to trade‑policy shocks. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/italys-us-exports-rose-last-year-despite-tariffs-report-shows-4574357?utm_source=openai)) **Sources for Dimension 1**: ([esteri.it](https://www.esteri.it/en/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/comunicati/2025/01/andamento-del-commercio-estero-extra-ue-nel-2024/?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [COMMODITY TRENDS] – ITALIAN FRESH FRUIT & VEGETABLE EXPORTS AND DROUGHT/HEATWAVE IMPACTS (UP TO 2026) === **Baseline trade performance (value & volume)** - Istat data for **2023** show Italian exports of fresh fruit and vegetables (FFV) reaching **€5.78 bn**, **+9.1% in value y/y**, though **volumes fell 0.9%**, indicating price‑driven growth (inflation, higher unit values) rather than larger tonnages. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) - Sector organizations (CSO Italy / “I Love Fruit & Veg From Europe” programme) indicate **global Italian fruit & vegetable exports at ~€5.67 bn in 2023**, up **€444 m** vs 2022, with especially strong growth to **Canada (exports €27 m, +31% vs 2022)**. ([ilovefruitandvegfromeurope.com](https://ilovefruitandvegfromeurope.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Press-release-10.01.2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - For **2024**, fresh‑market industry data report **Italian FFV export value surpassing €6 bn (+5.3% vs 2023)**, marking a **new record**; underlying tonnage is reported as flat‑to‑slightly‑down, again suggesting price‑led value growth. ([fresh-market.info](https://www.fresh-market.info/fruitsandvegetables/fruits/italys-fruit-and-vegetable-export-hits-a-record-high-of-over-6-billion-euros-in-2024-600451813?utm_source=openai)) **Climate impacts – drought & heatwaves (2022–2023 carry‑over into 2025/26)** - Repeated **summer heatwaves and drought episodes in 2022–2023** in Northern and Central Italy reduced water availability for **fruit orchards (apples, pears, kiwifruit, stone fruit) and vegetables**, leading to: - **Reduced average yields per hectare** in some key regions (Emilia‑Romagna, Veneto, Puglia, Sicily) and quality downgrades. - Increased irrigation costs, shifting planting choices towards **more drought‑tolerant crops and varieties**. (Synthesis from CSO Italy and sector press, 2023–2024). ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) - The **lagged effect into 2024–2025**: - Sector communication from 2024 highlights **lower exportable volumes of apples and some stone fruit** due to prior year climatic stress, despite relatively good prices. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) - In contrast, **tubers, vegetables and legumes** saw **+8.7% in volume and +18.4% in value** in 2023, partially offsetting fruit shortfalls and supporting overall FFV export growth. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) **2024–early 2025 export trends by product / destination (where specified)** - Value growth in 2024 (to **>€6 bn, +5.3%**) is attributed largely to: - **Citrus, kiwifruit and some vegetables** gaining value in EU and non‑EU markets. - High export prices, supported by **tight EU supply** after climate events in Southern Europe and North Africa. ([fresh-market.info](https://www.fresh-market.info/fruitsandvegetables/fruits/italys-fruit-and-vegetable-export-hits-a-record-high-of-over-6-billion-euros-in-2024-600451813?utm_source=openai)) - Geographic pattern (for global FFV exports): - EU partners (Germany, France, Austria, Eastern Europe) remain the **core markets**, but non‑EU destinations (UK, Switzerland, North America, Middle East) are increasingly targeted to capture higher margins and diversify climate risk. ([fresh-market.info](https://www.fresh-market.info/fruitsandvegetables/fruits/italys-fruit-and-vegetable-export-hits-a-record-high-of-over-6-billion-euros-in-2024-600451813?utm_source=openai)) **Direct drought/heatwave impacts on 2025 harvests (setting up 2026 exportable supply)** - While detailed 2025 harvest statistics by crop are still being consolidated, sector reports through late 2024 and early 2025 point to: - **Improved water conditions** in some northern regions due to better rainfall in early 2024 vs the extreme drought of 2022; however, **localised summer heatwaves still constrained yields for sensitive fruits** (stone fruit, table grapes) and forced more **night‑time harvests and shading techniques**. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) - Persistent **water‑stress risk in Southern Italy** (Puglia, Sicily, Calabria), where irrigation reservoirs have not fully recovered; this is particularly critical for **citrus, table grapes, early vegetables**. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) **Economic effects: prices, margins, trade composition** - **Prices and margins**: - The combination of **lower or flat volumes and higher unit values** in 2023–2024 indicates that: - Exporters were able to **pass through higher production and logistics costs** (water, energy, fertilisers, freight) to international buyers. - But margins remain volatile, highly sensitive to **climate shocks (yield variability)** and **freight disruptions**. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) - **Shift in product mix**: - Data showing **+8.7% volume, +18.4% value for tubers/vegetables/legumes** in 2023 vs declining fruit volumes suggests a **relative pivot towards vegetables and more drought‑tolerant crops** in export portfolios. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) - Exporters and grower cooperatives increasingly emphasize: - **Controlled‑environment or greenhouse vegetables** (e.g., tomatoes, leafy greens) for better climate control. - Investment in **varieties with improved heat and drought tolerance** for apples, kiwifruit and grapes (e.g., rootstock changes). (Synthesized from sector reports and CSO Italy communications). ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for 2026** Given that fresh fruit and vegetable exports respond with a **1–2 year lag to orchard and infrastructure investments**, the 2022–2024 climate episodes are likely to shape 2026 as follows: - **Volumes**: - Expect **continued tight supply in some fruit categories** (especially where orchards were uprooted or replanted due to drought damage), keeping **volumes constrained but supporting higher prices** into 2026, particularly in: - **Apples & pears** from North‑Italy regions affected by previous drought and hail. - **Stone fruit and table grapes** from central‑southern Italy. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) - **Destination mix**: - EU will remain the primary sink, but exporters are likely to: - Maintain or expand **higher‑margin non‑EU markets** (UK, Switzerland, North America, Middle East), especially for branded, quality‑segmented produce. ([ilovefruitandvegfromeurope.com](https://ilovefruitandvegfromeurope.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Press-release-10.01.2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Risk and resilience**: - Recurrent **heatwaves and water stress** are pushing structural changes: - **Drip irrigation, reservoir and on‑farm water storage investments**. - Greater **insurance and hedging**, and closer alignment with **retailers’ sustainability and resilience requirements** (e.g., carbon and water footprints, certifications). ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) **Key quantified take‑aways** - **2023**: Italian FFV exports **€5.78 bn, +9.1% value, -0.9% volume**; tubers/vegetables/legumes **+8.7% volume, +18.4% value**. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) - **2024**: FFV exports exceeded **€6 bn (+5.3%)**, new record, but with continued tight volumes due to climate impacts. ([fresh-market.info](https://www.fresh-market.info/fruitsandvegetables/fruits/italys-fruit-and-vegetable-export-hits-a-record-high-of-over-6-billion-euros-in-2024-600451813?utm_source=openai)) **Sources for Dimension 2**: ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/fruit-and-vegetable-exports-growing-by-91-in-2023?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [PROBLEM FRAMING] – EU LOGISTICS & SUSTAINABILITY REGULATIONS (CBAM, MRV & RELATED EMISSIONS RULES) AND THEIR IMPACT ON FREIGHT FORWARDERS & EXPORTERS (INTO 2026) === Below is a structured framing of the regulatory environment that Italian and other EU exporters/freight forwarders face going into 2026. #### 3.1 Core climate/logistics instruments relevant to trade & transport **(a) EU ETS – extension to maritime transport (from 2024) & MRV** - Since **1 January 2024**, the **EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)** has been extended to **CO₂ emissions from maritime transport**, built on the pre‑existing **EU MRV maritime regulation (Reg. (EU) 2015/757)**. ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-shipping-sector/faq-maritime-transport-eu-emissions-trading-system-ets_bg?utm_source=openai)) - Coverage & phasing: - ETS applies to ships **≥5,000 GT** calling at EU ports; **CO₂ emissions in 2024–2025**, and **CH₄ & N₂O added from 2026**. ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-shipping-sector/faq-maritime-transport-eu-emissions-trading-system-ets_bg?utm_source=openai)) - Obligations fall on the **shipping company**, but practical burden is often shifted to **charterers, shippers and freight forwarders through contracts and surcharges**. - MRV obligations: - Companies must **monitor, report and verify** annual GHG emissions, distance, cargo and energy efficiency metrics for each voyage. ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-shipping-sector/faq-maritime-transport-eu-emissions-trading-system-ets_bg?utm_source=openai)) - From **1 January 2025**, revised EU MRV extends to **general cargo ships 400–5,000 GT** and **offshore ships ≥400 GT**, increasing the portion of short‑sea and feeder trades subject to data collection and reporting. ([dnv.com](https://www.dnv.com/maritime/insights/topics/mrv/?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for freight forwarders & exporters (2025–2026)** - **Cost pass‑through**: carriers are adding **ETS surcharges** to ocean freight rates; forwarders must **itemise ETS and MRV‑related charges** in quotations and contracts. - **Data and documentation**: exporters increasingly must provide **accurate cargo data (weight, routing, port of call)** to help carriers comply with MRV and to allocate emissions costs per shipment. - **Modal decisions**: rising ETS‑driven costs for maritime (and gradually road under ETS2 – see below) may nudge some flows toward **shorter routes, higher load factors, or alternative ports**, affecting corridor choices (e.g., routing via Mediterranean vs North‑European hubs). ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-shipping-sector/faq-maritime-transport-eu-emissions-trading-system-ets_bg?utm_source=openai)) --- **(b) FuelEU Maritime (Reg. (EU) 2023/1805)** - Purpose: promote **renewable and low‑carbon fuels** in maritime transport as part of **Fit for 55**. ([transport.ec.europa.eu](https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/maritime/decarbonising-maritime-transport-fueleu-maritime_en?utm_source=openai)) - Key obligations relevant for 2026: - **Greenhouse gas intensity limits** for the energy used on board ships calling at EU ports, gradually tightening from **2025 onward**. ([transport.ec.europa.eu](https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/maritime/decarbonising-maritime-transport-fueleu-maritime_en?utm_source=openai)) - **Annual “FuelEU report”**: by **31 January each year, starting in 2026**, companies must submit a **ship‑specific FuelEU report** to a verifier with data on energy use and compliance with GHG intensity targets. ([transport.ec.europa.eu](https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/maritime/decarbonising-maritime-transport-fueleu-maritime_en?utm_source=openai)) - **Zero‑emission at berth**: from **1 Jan 2030**, container and passenger ships at OPS‑equipped AFIR‑listed ports must use **on‑shore power supply or equivalent zero‑emission solutions**; this will progressively spread to more ports by 2035, affecting port choice and berth operations. ([transport.ec.europa.eu](https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/maritime/decarbonising-maritime-transport-fueleu-maritime_en?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for logistics actors** - **Contracting & routing**: forwarders and exporters will need to **consider ship/fleet compliance status** when selecting carriers and services (older non‑compliant tonnage may carry higher FuelEU penalties and costs). - **Port strategy**: preference may shift toward **ports with OPS and green‑fuel bunkering** (e.g., major Italian gateways investing in shore power and alternative fuels), altering inland corridors and drayage patterns. ([transport.ec.europa.eu](https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/maritime/decarbonising-maritime-transport-fueleu-maritime_en?utm_source=openai)) --- **(c) ETS2 – road transport & buildings (from 2027, preparatory rules already in place)** - A **separate ETS (ETS2)** for **road transport and buildings** was created, with preparatory rules already specified and full price signal to start from **2027**, though the **regulatory architecture and MRV rules are being aligned now**. ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets/monitoring-reporting-and-verification_en?utm_source=openai)) - While not directly pricing road emissions in 2026, fuel distributors and large transport operators are already **preparing reporting systems and contract clauses**, anticipating cost pass‑through to freight rates. --- **(d) eFTI Regulation – digital freight data** - The **eFTI Regulation (EU) 2020/1056** aims to standardize **electronic freight transport information** across modes; the **2024 Implementing Regulation (EU) 2024/1942** sets detailed procedures and rules for authorities’ access and processing of e‑freight documents. ([transport.ec.europa.eu](https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-themes/logistics-and-multimodal-transport/efti-regulation_en?utm_source=openai)) - By the **mid‑2020s**, EU member states must be able to **accept digital freight information**; logistics operators and exporters face strong incentives to **digitise transport documents**, which also facilitates **emissions data collection and MRV reporting**. --- **(e) CBAM – Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism** - CBAM covers imports into the EU of **carbon‑intensive goods** (initially: cement, iron & steel, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity, hydrogen and some precursors). - Transitional phase (from **1 Oct 2023**): importers must **quarterly report embedded emissions** without paying a financial adjustment. Full operation (with certificate surrender) starts **1 Jan 2026**. ([clcouncil.org](https://clcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/A-Guide-to-the-EU-CBAM.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Recent development: in **September 2025**, the Council agreed on a **CBAM “simplification”**, easing some registration and reporting burdens (especially for SMEs) and allowing imports of CBAM goods for a limited time while **authorized CBAM declarant registration is pending**. ([consilium.europa.eu](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/09/29/cbam-council-signs-off-simplification-to-the-eu-carbon-leakage-instrument/pdf/?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for EU‑based exporters & freight forwarders** - CBAM primarily affects **imports into the EU**, not exports. However: - For **re‑exporters and traders using inward‑processing** (e.g., importing steel, processing in Italy, then exporting finished goods), CBAM data requirements **cascade backward into their upstream supply chains**. - **Documentation and verification burden** often falls operationally on **freight forwarders and non‑EU exporters**, who must provide plant‑specific emissions data, verify with accredited verifiers, and manage digital submissions. ([clcouncil.org](https://clcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/A-Guide-to-the-EU-CBAM.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Trade modelling suggests CBAM **shifts trade toward cleaner and more domestic production**, with **modest aggregate gains for the EU** but potentially **higher compliance costs for carbon‑intensive foreign suppliers**. ([arxiv.org](https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.23341?utm_source=openai)) --- #### 3.2 Combined impact on freight forwarders and exporters by 2026 **1. Rising administrative & data‑management burden** - For **maritime shipments**, forwarders must now handle or coordinate: - **EU MRV data** (fuel, distance, cargo weight) at ship/voyage level. ([dnv.com](https://www.dnv.com/maritime/insights/topics/mrv/?utm_source=openai)) - **FuelEU Maritime reporting inputs** for carriers (energy type, emissions factors). ([transport.ec.europa.eu](https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/maritime/decarbonising-maritime-transport-fueleu-maritime_en?utm_source=openai)) - **CBAM import documentation** (for covered goods), including plant‑level emissions data, verifier confirmations, and quarterly/annual reporting for EU CBAM declarants. ([clcouncil.org](https://clcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/A-Guide-to-the-EU-CBAM.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Road and intermodal chains will increasingly require **GHG intensity data per leg** to satisfy shippers’ corporate reporting (CSRD) plus the upcoming ETS2. ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets/monitoring-reporting-and-verification_en?utm_source=openai)) **2. Cost structure changes & freight rate differentiation** - **ETS for maritime + FuelEU**: - Shipping companies must purchase **ETS allowances** and possibly pay FuelEU penalties for non‑compliance. - These costs are **passed down in bunker surcharges and ETS surcharges**; forwarders must decide **how to allocate these per client and trade lane**, with more carbon‑intensive routes/ships penalized. ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-shipping-sector/faq-maritime-transport-eu-emissions-trading-system-ets_bg?utm_source=openai)) - **CBAM**: - For carbon‑intensive supply chains, CBAM will **raise the effective landed cost** of imported inputs, potentially changing sourcing decisions and **re‑routing trade through countries with lower emissions intensity or better data capabilities**. ([clcouncil.org](https://clcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/A-Guide-to-the-EU-CBAM.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **3. Competitive dynamics** - **Logistics providers with advanced digital and sustainability capabilities** (eFTI‑ready platforms, automated CO₂ calculators, integrated MRV reporting) gain an edge: - They can more easily provide **shipment‑level emissions data**, **manage CBAM documentation**, and support customers’ **ESG and CSRD reporting**. ([dnv.com](https://www.dnv.com/maritime/insights/topics/mrv/?utm_source=openai)) - Smaller forwarders and exporters, especially SMEs, risk being **overwhelmed by the reporting load**, though CBAM simplifications agreed in 2025 aim to reduce administrative and registration burdens for SMEs. ([consilium.europa.eu](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/09/29/cbam-council-signs-off-simplification-to-the-eu-carbon-leakage-instrument/pdf/?utm_source=openai)) **4. Modal and corridor choices** - Rising **carbon and regulatory costs** will influence: - **Choice of ports and carriers**: preference for **FuelEU‑compliant and ETS‑efficient services**, possibly benefiting well‑equipped Mediterranean hubs for Italian exporters. ([transport.ec.europa.eu](https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/maritime/decarbonising-maritime-transport-fueleu-maritime_en?utm_source=openai)) - **Shift to shorter, more direct routes** and **higher load factors** to dilute ETS and fuel costs per unit of cargo. - For some high‑value, time‑sensitive goods, a **shift between air and sea** could occur depending on relative carbon pricing evolution, though aviation is already covered by ETS. **5. Integration with corporate sustainability & reporting (CSRD, taxonomy)** - Even where **regulations like CBAM formally target importers or ship‑owners**, practical compliance is only achievable if: - **Exporters and forwarders supply accurate emissions and process data**. - They align with **customers’ CSRD and EU Taxonomy reporting**, creating a **market pull** for low‑carbon logistics options and certified data. ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets/monitoring-reporting-and-verification_en?utm_source=openai)) --- #### 3.3 Problem framing – strategic questions for 2026 For Italian (and EU) agri‑food exporters and their logistics partners, the 2026 problem is less about a single regulation and more about **regulatory stacking**: 1. **How to operationalise end‑to‑end emissions data?** - Need to integrate **maritime MRV**, **road fuel/emissions data (ETS2 prep)** and **CBAM embedded carbon** into a **single shipment‑level reporting capability** usable for both **regulatory** and **commercial (ESG) purposes**. 2. **How to price carbon and compliance costs into contracts?** - Forwarders must decide on **transparent vs blended pricing** for ETS/FuelEU surcharges. - Exporters must understand how these surcharges **alter delivered cost and competitiveness by lane** (e.g., Italy–US vs Italy–China vs intra‑EU). 3. **How to adjust routing and sourcing to reduce exposure?** - Evaluating **lower‑carbon routes, carriers, ports**. - For CBAM‑exposed inputs, consider **switching to EU or low‑carbon third‑country suppliers** to reduce both **certificate costs** and **data complexity**. 4. **What capabilities to build versus outsource?** - Decide whether to **develop in‑house emissions & regulatory reporting systems** or rely on **3PLs/4PLs and digital platforms** that are already eFTI and MRV‑ready. --- **Sources for Dimension 3**: ([transport.ec.europa.eu](https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/maritime/decarbonising-maritime-transport-fueleu-maritime_en?utm_source=openai))