## Company Profile Crayford Freight Services Ltd – UK-based freight forwarder (website: http://www.crayfordfreight.com). Serves UK shippers and importers with road and short-sea/Ro‑Ro forwarding, customs clearance and likely warehousing and distribution services (typical mid‑sized regional forwarder profile). Point of contact: Malcolm Hernaman, BDM. Focused on UK–EU cross‑Channel and North Sea lanes where Ro‑Ro, short‑sea container and door‑to‑door groupage are core. Scale: not publicly listed; appears to be a local/regional operator serving SME importers and exporters across food, retail and general cargo segments. ## Pain Points 1) Compliance & documentation friction (Windsor Framework/UKIMS, ICS2, BTOM) — customers face higher risk of documentation‑related delays, especially in groupage/B2B parcel and chilled food moves; Crayford needs partners who can bring customs‑ready clients and data‑clean shipments. 2) Rate volatility and schedule reliability on short‑sea / Ro‑Ro lanes — surcharges and ad‑hoc cancellations expose Crayford’s customers to landed cost swings and spoilage risk; there is demand for multi‑route/short‑sea-capable consolidation. 3) Working capital & inventory pressure for perishable importers — clients raise safety stock or face spoilage; Crayford needs more predictable, integrated logistics flows and trusted‑trader pathways to reduce dwell time. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [DEMAND SIGNALS] – UK–EU FREIGHT VOLUMES & CROSS‑CHANNEL Ro‑Ro / SHORT‑SEA CAPACITY (2025–2026) === **Overall UK port freight & unitised Ro‑Ro trends** - UK Port Freight Quarterly stats for Oct–Dec 2025 (latest official figures) show: - Unitised Ro‑Ro *freight-carrying units* through UK major ports increased in number, while **Ro‑Ro tonnage declined**, implying more vehicles/trailers moving but with lighter average loads.([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/port-freight-quarterly-statistics-october-to-december-2025/port-freight-quarterly-october-to-december-2025?utm_source=openai)) - The Department for Transport notes these quarterly data are “timelier estimates”; full 2025 annual port freight statistics will be released July 2026, but the latest quarter suggests **flat‑to‑slightly positive volume in units** with some softening in cargo weight per unit.([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/port-freight-quarterly-statistics-october-to-december-2025/port-freight-quarterly-october-to-december-2025?utm_source=openai)) **Cross‑Channel / North Sea Ro‑Ro and short‑sea operators – current signals** - DFDS (major Dover–Calais/Dunkirk and North Sea operator) February 2026 volume update: - For the **last 12 months to Feb 2026**, total freight lane‑metres carried across DFDS’ network increased **0.6%** (41.6m vs 41.4m prior year), but **–1.3% after adjusting for route changes**, indicating essentially **flat overall freight demand with some network reshuffling**.([shippax.com](https://www.shippax.com/en/news/dfds-february-volumes.aspx?utm_source=openai)) - **Channel (including Dover Strait)**: DFDS reports **Channel volumes above 2025** due mainly to **new Jersey volumes**, while **Dover Strait volumes are “almost on level” with 2025**—so **no major growth but no collapse**.([shippax.com](https://www.shippax.com/en/news/dfds-february-volumes.aspx?utm_source=openai)) - **North Sea volumes** (Continent–UK) are **above 2025**, signalling **slightly stronger demand** on these lanes than on the pure Dover Strait.([shippax.com](https://www.shippax.com/en/news/dfds-february-volumes.aspx?utm_source=openai)) - Short‑sea container capacity and consolidation: - In February 2026, **CLdN** acquired **Samskip’s UK quay‑to‑quay and door‑to‑door freight business**, including leases for **>5,000 multimodal units** (45ft pallet‑wide, reefers, curtain‑siders, flat‑racks). This significantly expands CLdN’s **short‑sea container and Ro‑Ro‑adjacent offering between mainland Europe, the UK & Ireland**, effectively **adding capacity and service breadth without necessarily increasing ship count proportionally** (through better equipment availability and network integration).([multimodal.org.uk](https://www.multimodal.org.uk/article/cldn-acquires-samskips-uk-quay-to-quay-and-door-to-door-freight-business?utm_source=openai)) - London-based **Ellerman City Liners** launched a new **Baltic–UK–Benelux short‑sea service (Baltex)** in January 2026, citing **“growing demand for reliable short‑sea container capacity in the Baltic region”** and offering up to **50% lower CO₂ vs road** alternatives. This indicates **incremental capacity growth and modal shift potential** on North Europe–UK feeder legs.([bairdmaritime.com](https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/boxships/uks-ellerman-city-liners-launches-new-baltic-short-sea-service?utm_source=openai)) **Port throughput and capacity utilisation** - **DP World London Gateway**: - Handled a record **>5 million TEU in 2025** across its UK terminals (London Gateway + Southampton), supported by a **new fourth berth** and additional Asia–Europe vessel calls under the Gemini Cooperation.([container-news.com](https://container-news.com/dp-world-london-gateway-handles-record-5m-teus/?utm_source=openai)) - This TEU growth points to **strong containerised throughput capacity on deep‑sea and feeder services**, indirectly supporting **short‑sea and cross‑Channel flows via inland transhipment** and hinterland distribution. **European road & short‑sea context** - Metro Global’s April 2026 market briefing notes: - The **European road freight market grew only ~0.5%** with several large markets in decline, describing a **fragile demand environment**, high fuel costs and tight margins.([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai)) - UK‑EU road freight is still “defined by increased friction” post‑Brexit, but there are **“early signs that the UK may begin to move closer to Europe in practical, trade‑focused ways”**, which could support medium‑term growth in cross‑border volumes and encourage **more investment in capacity and services** (including Ro‑Ro and short‑sea).([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai)) **Directional read‑across for 2026 UK–EU food & agri imports** - Unitised Ro‑Ro volumes are **flat to slightly up in units**, with **stable Dover Strait** and **modestly higher North Sea flows**, while deep‑sea container volumes at key UK hubs are hitting record highs.([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/port-freight-quarterly-statistics-october-to-december-2025/port-freight-quarterly-october-to-december-2025?utm_source=openai)) - Additional short‑sea services (Baltic link, CLdN network expansion) suggest **ample or slightly expanding capacity** for EU–UK short‑sea moves, though **yield management and service rationalisation** remain likely in a soft but stable demand environment.([bairdmaritime.com](https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/boxships/uks-ellerman-city-liners-launches-new-baltic-short-sea-service?utm_source=openai)) - For UK food and agriculture importers moving goods via Ro‑Ro and short‑sea: - **No overt capacity crunch** evident for early 2026, but - **Tighter average loads (lower tonnage per unit)** and fragile road demand point to **continued pressure on freight rates and service configuration**. **Citations – Demand Signals** ([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/port-freight-quarterly-statistics-october-to-december-2025/port-freight-quarterly-october-to-december-2025?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [MARKET EVENTS] – UK BORDER / CUSTOMS CHANGES 2026, GB TRADER / NI, PORT CONGESTION === **Windsor Framework, UK Trader Scheme → UK Internal Market Scheme / UKIMS (GB–NI)** - Under the **Windsor Framework**, the former **UK Trader Scheme (UKTS)** for GB‑to‑NI trade has already been replaced by the **UK Internal Market Scheme (UKIMS)**, which allows “trusted” traders moving goods **“not at risk”** of entering the EU to use a **green lane** with reduced customs formalities and checks.([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-windsor-framework-further-detail-and-publications?utm_source=openai)) - The UK government guidance (updated through 2024–2025) indicates: - **From 30 September 2023**, UKIMS formally replaced UKTS.([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-windsor-framework-further-detail-and-publications?utm_source=openai)) - **From late 2024 into 2025**, additional easements are phased in for UKIMS users: reduced documentary requirements and simplified processes for GB→NI movements classed as internal UK trade.([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-windsor-framework-further-detail-and-publications?utm_source=openai)) - A June 2025 professional briefing on the Windsor Framework notes: - Further simplifications for **GB→NI parcel traffic from May 2025**, linking UKIMS, the **Trader Goods Profile (TGP)** and the **“green lane”** for eligible traders.([icaew.com](https://www.icaew.com/-/media/corporate/files/technical/tax/tax-faculty/webinars-and-recordings/2025/windsor-framework-update-2025.ashx?utm_source=openai)) **ICS2 and GB→NI / GB→EU security filings** - An August 2025 advisory on **ICS2 (EU Import Control System 2)** highlights: - Economic Operators must lodge **Entry Summary Declarations (ENS)** for road/rail movements into the EU (and for some GB→NI lanes depending on routing and first EU country of entry).([customs-declarations.uk](https://www.customs-declarations.uk/ics2-update-hmrc-confirms-extra-time-for-gb-ni-road-rail-ens-what-traders-must-do-now/?utm_source=openai)) - **B2C parcels GB→NI**: no customs declaration or ENS required; **B2B parcels**: specific data elements must be supplied, in line with Windsor Framework parcel rules.([customs-declarations.uk](https://www.customs-declarations.uk/ics2-update-hmrc-confirms-extra-time-for-gb-ni-road-rail-ens-what-traders-must-do-now/?utm_source=openai)) - Traders need to check **Member State‑specific ICS2 go‑live and derogations** for GB→EU road and rail routes, especially ahead of **September 2025** implementation in some states.([customs-declarations.uk](https://www.customs-declarations.uk/ics2-update-hmrc-confirms-extra-time-for-gb-ni-road-rail-ens-what-traders-must-do-now/?utm_source=openai)) **BTOM (Border Target Operating Model) Phase 5 – 2026 UK border controls** - A 2026 advisory on **BTOM Phase 5 – UK Border Controls 2026** outlines: - From **autumn 2026**, the UK plans to introduce a **Single Trade Window** – a single digital portal covering **all border‑related declarations** (customs, SPS, safety & security).([easyclearance.pl](https://easyclearance.pl/en/articles/btom-phase-5-kontrole-graniczne-uk-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) - Phase 5 aligns with rolling out more comprehensive risk‑based controls; **AEO and Trusted Trader** status (including UKIMS and similar schemes) can qualify businesses for **reduced intervention rates and potentially lower compliance costs**.([easyclearance.pl](https://easyclearance.pl/en/articles/btom-phase-5-kontrole-graniczne-uk-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) - For food and agriculture importers, this will eventually mean: - **More integrated pre‑border data submission**, but - Continued **document and physical checks for high‑risk categories** under SPS rules. **UK Border strategy & shelved “frictionless border” project** - The UK originally aimed (under a prior government) to deliver the “world’s most effective border” by 2025 as part of its **2025 Border Strategy**.([assets.publishing.service.gov.uk](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/902740/2025-Border-Strategy-Condoc.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - In **February 2026**, reporting indicates the government has **shelved a £110m technology project** intended to underpin a frictionless post‑Brexit border. There is still **no definitive timetable** for implementing the full “smart border” vision, leaving businesses with an evolving but still patchy system of platforms and schemes.([theguardian.com](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/feb/17/uk-frictionless-post-brexit-trade-border-project?utm_source=openai)) **Current state of UK–EU border / port congestion (early 2026)** - Recent coverage and operator updates suggest: - **No sustained, system‑wide port congestion in the UK** so far in 2026 comparable to 2021–22; throughput growth at key ports (e.g., London Gateway) has been absorbed by added capacity (new berth, re‑routing, schedule adaptations).([container-news.com](https://container-news.com/dp-world-london-gateway-handles-record-5m-teus/?utm_source=openai)) - Industry commentary stresses **administrative friction and compliance burden** (Windsor Framework, ICS2, BTOM phases) rather than yard or berth congestion as the main pain point for UK–EU flows in 2025–26.([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai)) - That said, **weather‑driven disruptions and temporary sailing cancellations** (e.g., DFDS reporting reduced departures and a 23% YoY drop in February 2026 passengers due to poor weather) can still cause **short‑term capacity pinch points**, but freight lane‑metres over the last 12 months remain broadly stable.([shippax.com](https://www.shippax.com/en/news/dfds-february-volumes.aspx?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for GB food & agri importers using NI routes** - For GB firms importing EU food/agrifood via NI or distributing via NI: - **UKIMS “green lane”** substantially reduces customs paperwork for qualifying “not at risk” goods, but - ICS2 and Windsor Framework parcel rules require **better data quality and earlier data capture**, especially for B2B parcel and groupage flows.([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-windsor-framework-further-detail-and-publications?utm_source=openai)) - The BTOM Phase 5 Single Trade Window (from autumn 2026) is intended to simplify submissions but may require **process and IT change in 2025–26**, particularly for multi‑modal shippers integrating customs, SPS and security filings.([easyclearance.pl](https://easyclearance.pl/en/articles/btom-phase-5-kontrole-graniczne-uk-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) **Citations – Market Events**n([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-windsor-framework-further-detail-and-publications?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [PROBLEM FRAMING] – IMPACT OF FREIGHT RATE VOLATILITY & DELAYS ON UK FOOD/AG IMPORTERS (2025–2026) === **Freight market backdrop heading into 2026** - A 2026 State of Shipping & Logistics report notes: - **Prolonged soft demand and excess capacity** heading into 2026, with freight demand never fully stabilising in 2025.([wwexgroup.com](https://wwexgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/WG-2026-State-of-the-Industry-Report.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - This environment typically leads to **high rate volatility**: periods of aggressive discounting on some lanes, punctuated by sharp surcharges when disruptions (Red Sea diversions, port strikes, weather) temporarily tighten capacity. - In Europe, Metro Global highlights: - **European road freight growth ~0.5%** with many markets in decline, high fuel costs, and a fragile pricing environment.([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai)) - Carriers are under pressure to maintain yields; **general rate increases (GRIs), fuel surcharges and accessorial charges** are frequently adjusted even in a low‑growth market. **Short‑sea / intra‑North Europe rate dynamics** - From October 2025, **CMA CGM’s Intra North Europe Short Sea division** implemented a **cost‑recovery increase** across all short‑sea services in the region “until further notice”, explicitly to pass through higher operating costs (fuel, environmental compliance, port charges).([en.portnews.ru](https://en.portnews.ru/news/380741/?utm_source=openai)) - Alongside **falling short‑sea volumes** in parts of Europe (e.g., Spanish ports report short‑sea shipping volumes down **4.6% in H1 2025**, with Ro‑Ro capacity offered down **5.7%**), carriers are seeking to preserve margins, which **magnifies rate swings for UK–EU feeders** used heavily by food and agrifood importers.([transportexxi.com](https://www.transportexxi.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/TransporteXXI-SP-Spanish-Ports-2026-web.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Operational disruptions – delays and reliability issues** - Even without headline congestion, several factors continue to generate **service unreliability** for UK‑bound food cargo: - **Weather events**: DFDS’ February 2026 report shows **poor weather and reduced sailings** across Europe, which cut passenger numbers but also required freight schedule adjustments. While total lane‑metres stayed roughly flat, shippers faced **ad‑hoc rollovers and rescheduling**, particularly on tighter just‑in‑time flows.([shippax.com](https://www.shippax.com/en/news/dfds-february-volumes.aspx?utm_source=openai)) - **Evolving border and security regimes** (Windsor Framework, ICS2, BTOM) increase the risk of **documentation‑related delays**, especially for: - Mixed loads (groupage) of food and non‑food products. - B2B parcel traffic requiring granular HS codes and origin data.([customs-declarations.uk](https://www.customs-declarations.uk/ics2-update-hmrc-confirms-extra-time-for-gb-ni-road-rail-ens-what-traders-must-do-now/?utm_source=openai)) - **Administrative friction**: Industry analyses stress that it is the **paperwork and data quality** rather than physical port capacity that now cause most friction on UK–EU freight.([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai)) **Specific impacts on UK food & agricultural importers** Based on these trends, key problem dimensions for UK food/agri buyers in 2025–26 are: 1. **Landed cost volatility** - Cost‑recovery surcharges (e.g., CMA CGM short‑sea increases), fuel surcharges, and periodic GRIs mean: - **Short‑sea and feeder rate levels can swing 20–40% within months** on some North Europe–UK corridors (inferred from past movements and current surcharge behaviour; not all carriers publish public tariff deltas).([en.portnews.ru](https://en.portnews.ru/news/380741/?utm_source=openai)) - For low‑margin commodities (grains, bulk ingredients, frozen produce), this directly affects **CIF price competitiveness** and **retail margin pressure**. 2. **Inventory risk and spoilage** - Schedule unreliability (weather, operational cancellations) combined with **border documentation holds** increases: - **Dwell times** for refrigerated containers and unaccompanied trailers. - **Risk of temperature deviations**, particularly during unplanned layovers or if power availability is constrained at terminals; this is a notable concern for fresh fruit & veg, chilled meat and dairy, and high‑value specialty ingredients.([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai)) 3. **Working capital and safety stock** - To buffer against **delay and reliability risk**, many UK importers have been: - **Increasing safety stocks** where shelf‑life allows, tying up additional working capital. - Shortening **replenishment cycles** on highly perishable categories, which can increase logistics cost per unit. - The combination of volatile freight rates and higher buffer inventory raises **overall supply chain cost‑to‑serve**, even in a soft demand environment. 4. **Supplier and route diversification (2025–26 behaviours)** - With UK–EU friction and evolving border rules, importers are progressively: - **Re‑balancing sourcing** between: - EU‑27 suppliers (using more stable deep‑sea hub + feeder routings via Rotterdam/Antwerp or direct short‑sea) and - Non‑EU origins (e.g., Mediterranean, Latin America, North America) that already assume full customs/SPS overhead, sometimes finding **more predictable total transit plus compliance** despite longer distances.([metro.global](https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai)) - Increasing use of **short‑sea container services** (e.g., Ellerman, CLdN, CMA CGM, Samskip legacy lanes) instead of pure road+Ro‑Ro, to gain: - Better **slot visibility**, - More consistent **sailing schedules**, and - Potential **CO₂ and cost benefits** on medium‑distance lanes.([bairdmaritime.com](https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/boxships/uks-ellerman-city-liners-launches-new-baltic-short-sea-service?utm_source=openai)) 5. **Compliance and data‑quality investments**n - To cope with Windsor Framework, ICS2 and future BTOM Phase 5, UK food importers are: - Investing in **TMS/ERP upgrades, customs data hubs and broker integration** to ensure HS codes, origin, and SPS attributes are captured once and reused for all filings.([customs-declarations.uk](https://www.customs-declarations.uk/ics2-update-hmrc-confirms-extra-time-for-gb-ni-road-rail-ens-what-traders-must-do-now/?utm_source=openai)) - Entering or expanding **Trusted Trader schemes (AEO, UKIMS)** to gain: - **Lower inspection rates**, - Faster movement through green lanes, - Reduced risk of random checks that can compromise shelf‑life.([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-windsor-framework-further-detail-and-publications?utm_source=openai)) **Strategic problem framing for 2026** From a market‑intelligence angle, the 2026 problem for UK food & agrifood importers is less about headline shortages and more about **managing volatility and regulatory friction at acceptable cost**: - **Demand/volume**: broadly stable or modestly growing for UK–EU lanes.([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/port-freight-quarterly-statistics-october-to-december-2025/port-freight-quarterly-october-to-december-2025?utm_source=openai)) - **Rates**: oscillating in a soft overall market, with **cost‑recovery and environmental compliance surcharges** a structural feature.([en.portnews.ru](https://en.portnews.ru/news/380741/?utm_source=openai)) - **Delays**: driven by weather, schedule changes, and documentation—not persistent port congestion. - **Response**: route, mode and supplier diversification; IT and data investments; greater reliance on trusted trader schemes. For food and agricultural commodity strategies into 2026, this translates into: - Building **multi‑lane routing options** (e.g., primary short‑sea + fallback Ro‑Ro, or EU hub + UK feeder). - Negotiating **index‑linked or banded freight contracts** to cap rate volatility exposure. - Prioritising suppliers and logistics partners with **strong customs/data capabilities** (Windsor / ICS2‑ready) to reduce the probability of border holds. **Citations – Problem Framing** ([wwexgroup.com](https://wwexgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/WG-2026-State-of-the-Industry-Report.pdf?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • Port Freight Quarterly October to December 2025 - GOV.UK https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/port-freight-quarterly-statistics-october-to-december-2025/port-freight-quarterly-october-to-december-2025?utm_source=openai • Port Freight Quarterly October to December 2025 - GOV.UK https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/port-freight-quarterly-statistics-october-to-december-2025/port-freight-quarterly-october-to-december-2025?utm_source=openai • DFDS February volumes | Shippax https://www.shippax.com/en/news/dfds-february-volumes.aspx?utm_source=openai • DFDS February volumes | Shippax https://www.shippax.com/en/news/dfds-february-volumes.aspx?utm_source=openai • DFDS February volumes | Shippax https://www.shippax.com/en/news/dfds-february-volumes.aspx?utm_source=openai • CLdN acquires Samskip’s UK quay-to-quay and door-to-door freight business https://www.multimodal.org.uk/article/cldn-acquires-samskips-uk-quay-to-quay-and-door-to-door-freight-business?utm_source=openai • UK's Ellerman City Liners launches new Baltic short-sea service https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/boxships/uks-ellerman-city-liners-launches-new-baltic-short-sea-service?utm_source=openai • DP World London Gateway handles record 5M TEUs - Container News https://container-news.com/dp-world-london-gateway-handles-record-5m-teus/?utm_source=openai • A tougher European road market and a UK edging back towards it | Metro Global https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai • A tougher European road market and a UK edging back towards it | Metro Global https://metro.global/2026/04/15/a-tougher-european-road-market-and-a-uk-edging-back-towards-it/?utm_source=openai