## Company Profile A.E Horne and Son Ltd. — customs broker (Canada). Listed website: http://www.aehorne.com and contact imports@aehorne.com. The firm operates as a Canadian customs broker and trade compliance service provider: customs clearance and entry filing, tariff classification, duty/tax accounting, release/hold management with CBSA and CFIA, and carrier/carrier‑agent coordination (ACI/eManifest/CARM support). Likely serves importers of food, seafood, agricultural commodities, e‑commerce sellers and freight forwarders needing brokered clearance services. No public enterprise scale found in the lead data; appears to be a regional/specialist broker rather than a large national network (customer-facing email and limited online footprint). ## Pain Points 1) Rising CBSA enforcement on CLVS/e‑commerce: proposed mandatory advance electronic data, tightened valuation rules and CARM/CLVS changes will create a surge of small e‑commerce importers and NRIs needing compliant filing and broker support — increasing A.E Horne’s onboarding and IT integration burden at scale. 2) Higher operational costs & fee pressure: CBSA fee indexation effective April 1, 2026 (+25.3%) increases per‑shipment costs (special services, warehousing, overtime) and squeezes broker margins, especially for low‑value courier flows and incident response. 3) Increased inspection holds and congestion risk for agri/seafood: CFIA’s targeted surveillance and CBSA’s enhanced risk targeting for agri‑food in 2026, plus episodic West Coast congestion and global schedule volatility, raise the frequency of holds/demurrage and require faster sourcing documentation and alternative routing to avoid client penalties. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. PROBLEM FRAMING – CBSA 2026 IMPORT REGULATION UPDATES (eManifest, E‑COMMERCE, LVS) === **Regulatory direction 2026–2028 – courier/e‑commerce low‑value stream** - CBSA’s **Forward Regulatory Plan 2026–2028** flags a dedicated initiative: **“Advance Electronic Data for Goods Imported via the Courier Low Value Shipment Program (CLVS)”**. - Problem identified: explosive e‑commerce growth and use of **non‑resident importers (NRIs)** declaring low sale prices to reduce **value for duty**, giving them an advantage over Canadian businesses. ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/agency-agence/actreg-loireg/frp-ppr/index-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) - Objective: amend regulations so CBSA can: - Require **advance electronic data (AED)** for CLVS imports (currently they *cannot* legally compel this). ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/agency-agence/actreg-loireg/frp-ppr/index-fra.html?utm_source=openai)) - Enforce proper valuation rules, align with international obligations, and ensure correct duties/taxes are collected (closing low‑value under‑valuation loopholes for NRIs). ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/agency-agence/actreg-loireg/frp-ppr/index-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) - Process/timing: - First round of draft **Valuation for Duty Regulations** was in Canada Gazette I (May–July 2023); heavy stakeholder pushback led CBSA to re‑consult informally from **Dec 3, 2025** on revised proposals before returning to Gazette I. ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/agency-agence/actreg-loireg/frp-ppr/index-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) - The Forward Plan dates these measures squarely in the **2026–2028 implementation window**, so importers should assume concrete regulatory text in 2026 and operationalization by 2027–28. **Operational systems – eManifest + CARM + e‑commerce inspection** - **CARM go‑live**: CBSA Memorandum **D17‑4‑0 (CLVS Program)** confirms that **as of October 21, 2024 CARM is the official system of record** for commercial import accounting and duty/tax payment. Any 2026 compliance strategy must assume CARM is fully embedded. ([cbsa.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa.gc.ca/publications/dm-md/d17/d17-4-0-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) - **eManifest scope**: - D3‑4‑2 (Carriers’ obligations) clarifies that **CLVS shipments are presently exempt from eManifest**, unlike other commercial cargo that must submit pre‑arrival ACI/eManifest data. ([cbsa.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa.gc.ca/publications/dm-md/d3/d3-4-2-eng.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - The 2026–27 CBSA Departmental Plan explicitly states CBSA is **expanding eManifest functionality** to give targeting officers a modern interface across all modes; in parallel it is rolling out an **“E‑Commerce Low‑Value Inspection System”** to enhance **automation‑driven risk targeting** in the CLVS stream. ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/agency-agence/reports-rapports/rpp/2026-2027/full-plan-plan-complet-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) - Combined with the Forward Regulatory Plan, the clear signal is that **LVS courier flows will be drawn into an eManifest‑like advanced data regime**, closing the current exemption. **Cost / fee environment (effective April 1, 2026)** - Customs Notice **26‑04** (reported by EY) confirms CBSA is adjusting many service fees under the Service Fees Act **effective April 1, 2026**: - Fees not updated since April 1, 2019 increase by **25.3%** (cumulative inflation), including: - **Customs broker licensing and exams** - **Customs special services** (overtime, after‑hours, certain **CLVS/courier special services**) - **Warehousing and storage charges** - This increases per‑shipment and incident‑driven compliance cost for e‑commerce importers and their brokers. ([ey.com](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/technical/tax-alerts/canada-border-services-agency-adjusts-certain-fees-for-inflation-and-gst-hst?utm_source=openai)) **De minimis / LVS treatment – key points for 2026 planning** - Canada’s **statutory de minimis** for most courier imports remains **CAD 20 on customs duties**, but with higher tax/duty‑free thresholds for CUSMA‑origin courier imports (up to CAD 150 for duties and CAD 40 for GST/HST) as per CUSMA implementation notices. ([cbsa.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa.gc.ca/services/cusma-aceum/overview-survol-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) - CBSA states it now applies **LVS thresholds consistently across all commercial programs and modes**, but the 2026–28 plan suggests **valuation enforcement** will be tightened, especially where NRIs declare artificially low values to fall below thresholds. ([cbsa.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa.gc.ca/services/cusma-aceum/overview-survol-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) **Border compliance & broader regulatory overlay (relevant to agri/seafood importers)** - 2026–27 Departmental Plan lists priority legislative changes to the **Customs Act** to: - Require marine terminals to present **targeted high‑risk containers for examination “in a timely and consistent manner”** – directly relevant to containerized food and seafood. ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/agency-agence/reports-rapports/rpp/2026-2027/full-plan-plan-complet-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) - Obligate industry partners to provide adequate examination facilities for **exports** too, tightening control in both directions. ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/agency-agence/reports-rapports/rpp/2026-2027/full-plan-plan-complet-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) - Parallel regime: **Supply Chains Act** (forced/child labour in supply chains) has launched its **2026 reporting cycle**; there is **no minimum financial threshold on import value**, and import activities that are not central but more than “very minor” can still trigger reporting. Food and agri‑food importers with complex global sourcing now face a transparency and human‑rights compliance layer in addition to CBSA customs obligations. ([dlapiper.com](https://www.dlapiper.com/en/insights/publications/2026/01/canada-launches-2026-reporting-cycle-and-updates-guidance-for-supply-chains-act?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for low‑value/e‑commerce agri‑food imports into Canada in 2026** - Expect **mandatory advance data** for CLVS (functionally an eManifest requirement), with: - More granular HS classification and party data (consignor, consignee, IOR) - Closer scrutiny of **valuation** and **country of origin** for potentially dutiable food, beverages, and specialty products. - Compliance costs will rise via **fee indexation (+25.3%)** and higher broker/IT integration costs; small direct‑to‑consumer exporters into Canada may feel this most. ([ey.com](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/technical/tax-alerts/canada-border-services-agency-adjusts-certain-fees-for-inflation-and-gst-hst?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Dimension 1** CBSA Forward Regulatory Plan 2026–2028 ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/agency-agence/actreg-loireg/frp-ppr/index-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) CBSA Memorandum D17‑4‑0 (CLVS) and D3‑4‑2 (carriers, eManifest exemptions) ([cbsa.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa.gc.ca/publications/dm-md/d17/d17-4-0-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) CBSA 2026–27 Departmental Plan & 2024–25 SD Strategy ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/agency-agence/reports-rapports/rpp/2026-2027/full-plan-plan-complet-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) CBSA fee adjustments (Customs Notice 26‑04) – EY summary ([ey.com](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/technical/tax-alerts/canada-border-services-agency-adjusts-certain-fees-for-inflation-and-gst-hst?utm_source=openai)) CUSMA/LVS de minimis guidance & 2026 explainer on thresholds ([cbsa.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa.gc.ca/services/cusma-aceum/overview-survol-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) Supply Chains Act 2026 reporting guidance ([dlapiper.com](https://www.dlapiper.com/en/insights/publications/2026/01/canada-launches-2026-reporting-cycle-and-updates-guidance-for-supply-chains-act?utm_source=openai)) === 2. TIMING SIGNALS – CANADIAN PORTS, CONGESTION & CBSA/CFIA TARGETING (2026) === **West Coast port performance & congestion signals (Vancouver & Prince Rupert)** - **Prince Rupert – volumes and dwell times** - PRPA reports **total cargo throughput of 26.3 million tonnes in 2025, up 14% YoY**, driven by DP World expansions and new East‑West container services under the Gemini Cooperation. ([globenewswire.com](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/16/3275421/0/en/Port-of-Prince-Rupert-Cargo-Surges-14-as-DP-World-Expands-Capacity.html?utm_source=openai)) - PRPA publishes weekly **“Dwell Updates”** for Fairview Container Terminal (most recent April 13, 2026), indicating active management of container dwell and forecasting trends. While specific numbers vary week‑to‑week, BC government modelling shows Prince Rupert’s **average container dwell around 1 day vs ~4 days at Vancouver** under normal conditions – a structural advantage during congestion events. ([rupertport.com](https://www.rupertport.com/dwell/?utm_source=openai)) - **Vancouver – capacity expansion & record volumes** - The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority confirmed completion of the **Centerm Expansion Project** (Feb 28, 2026), aimed at raising container capacity, improving rail/road connections, and **reducing bottlenecks**. ([ports.marinelink.com](https://ports.marinelink.com/ports/port/longview/news/port-of-vancouver-announces-major-terminal-expansion-completion?utm_source=openai)) - Local reporting shows **record cargo volumes**, strongly driven by China: ~**52.6 million tonnes of China‑related imports/exports**, up **15% vs 2024**, and Canada–U.S. cargo via the port up **12% to 11.6 million tonnes**. This volume growth, even with new capacity, increases congestion risk during shocks. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/1rpgy2d/port_of_vancouver_handles_record_amount_of_cargo/?utm_source=openai)) **Systemic shocks affecting 2026 congestion** - **Global disruptions**: - The **2026 Iran war / Strait of Hormuz crisis** has sharply constrained tanker traffic and pushed Brent crude up **10–13% to around USD 80–82/bbl by March 2, 2026**, with the IEA calling it the largest oil supply disruption in history. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - A February 2026 freight market update notes **>100 blanked or cancelled voyages globally in February alone**, with significant congestion at major Chinese export terminals; these schedule gyrations spill over into Canadian West Coast berthing windows. ([jmrodgers.com](https://www.jmrodgers.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/JMR-Freight-Market-Update-February-2026-v1.0.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Weather & inland transport**: - The **March 2026 North American blizzard** and recurring winter events have led to rail bottlenecks and slowdowns, a recurring theme in stakeholder commentary: whenever there is a **Fraser Canyon slide, deep freeze in the Rockies, or fire events, rail capacity is cut and “the port grinds to a halt.”** ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2026_North_American_blizzard?utm_source=openai)) **Labour & governance context** - No major 2026 strike like the 2023 ILWU Canada action, but governance issues still matter: - A **truce/MOU** (April 2026) between Vancouver Fraser Port Authority and Global Container Terminals on Roberts Bank Terminal 2 planning reduces near‑term uncertainty around capacity expansion, but does not itself eliminate operational congestion. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/1stk029/port_of_vancouver_signs_mou_in_truce_with_gct_on/?utm_source=openai)) - Prince Rupert’s 2026 Port Information Guide and recent leadership changes (interim president as of Jan 1, 2026) illustrate continued investment and strategic positioning as a congestion‑relief gateway. ([rupertport.com](https://www.rupertport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PIG_Port_Information_Guide_2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **CBSA/CFIA targeting – food, agriculture, seafood** - CBSA is the **enforcement arm** for food/plant/animal requirements set by CFIA, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, and ECCC; its 2024–25 SD report reiterates a focus on **agri‑food and fisheries sectors** and increased **watercraft inspections** for invasive species risk. ([cbsa.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa.gc.ca/services/fpa-apa/menu-eng.html?utm_source=openai)) - CFIA’s **2025–26 Departmental Plan** (still operative into FY 2026–27) highlights: - **“Targeted surveillance on higher‑risk commodities”** with enforcement where non‑compliance is found. - Launch (from April 2025) of a **new data‑driven inspection program** to improve systemic risk analysis and inspection processes. ([inspection.canada.ca](https://inspection.canada.ca/en/about-cfia/transparency/corporate-management-reporting/reports-parliament/2025-2026-departmental-plan?utm_source=openai)) - While CFIA does not publicly single out “seafood and agricultural imports at Canadian ports” as a new 2026 initiative, several factors imply **heightened scrutiny**: - Ongoing **trade remedies and tariff disputes** around seafood and agri‑food (see Dimension 3) driving more **origin, documentation, and safety checks**. ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/sima-lmsi/i-e/fgm2026/fgm2026-in-eng.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - International moves such as U.S. **seafood import prohibitions tied to marine mammal protection** from Jan 1, 2026, which, while U.S.‑specific, tend to spill over into Canadian documentation expectations in integrated supply chains. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/TrumpTariffNews/comments/1rxa5ge/csms_67055632_nmfs_update_implementation_of/?utm_source=openai)) **Timing signals for agri/seafood shippers to/through Canada in 2026** - **Near term (Q2–Q3 2026):** - Expect **episodic congestion spikes** driven by: - Knock‑on effects from global schedule volatility (Hormuz crisis, Chinese port congestion). - Severe weather/rail disruptions. - Structural mitigation: Prince Rupert’s shorter dwell, Vancouver’s Centerm expansion, but this mostly **adds capacity** rather than eliminating variability. ([globenewswire.com](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/04/16/3275421/0/en/Port-of-Prince-Rupert-Cargo-Surges-14-as-DP-World-Expands-Capacity.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Inspection timing:** - CFIA’s expanded data/analytics program (rolling out from April 2025) should be maturing in **2026**, implying more **precise but potentially more frequent holds** on higher‑risk food and seafood consignments, especially from countries caught up in tariff or sanitary disputes. ([inspection.canada.ca](https://inspection.canada.ca/en/about-cfia/transparency/corporate-management-reporting/reports-parliament/2025-2026-departmental-plan?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Dimension 2** Prince Rupert Port Authority dwell updates, cargo growth and 2025 volumes ([rupertport.com](https://www.rupertport.com/dwell/?utm_source=openai)) Vancouver Centerm expansion, record West Coast trade volumes & China share ([ports.marinelink.com](https://ports.marinelink.com/ports/port/longview/news/port-of-vancouver-announces-major-terminal-expansion-completion?utm_source=openai)) Strait of Hormuz / Iran war crisis and oil price shock ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis?utm_source=openai)) Global blank sailings and congestion at Chinese ports (Feb 2026 freight update) ([jmrodgers.com](https://www.jmrodgers.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/JMR-Freight-Market-Update-February-2026-v1.0.pdf?utm_source=openai)) CFIA 2025–26 Departmental Plan & CBSA FPA enforcement framework ([inspection.canada.ca](https://inspection.canada.ca/en/about-cfia/transparency/corporate-management-reporting/reports-parliament/2025-2026-departmental-plan?utm_source=openai)) Vancouver rail/weather vulnerability commentary ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/britishcolumbia/comments/1rpwxly/nonus_trade_propels-port_of_vancouver_to_record/?utm_source=openai)) Prince Rupert 2026 Port Information Guide and governance ([rupertport.com](https://www.rupertport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PIG_Port_Information_Guide_2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) === 3. MARKET EVENTS – 2026 IMPORT FLOW SHIFTS (USMCA, CHINA, TARIFFS & SANCTIONS IMPACTS ON AGRI‑FOOD) === **3.1 Canada–China agri‑food tariffs and 2026 de‑escalation** - **Escalation (2024–2025):** - Canada imposed **100% tariff on Chinese EVs** and **25% on Chinese steel/aluminum** in Oct 2024. China retaliated in March 2025 with: - **100% tariffs** on Canadian **canola oil, canola meal, and peas**; - **25% tariffs** on Canadian **pork and seafood** (including aquatic products like lobster, crab). ([edc.ca](https://www.edc.ca/en/article/china-tariffs-canola-exports.html?utm_source=openai)) - These measures sharply curtailed agri‑food exports to China in 2025, forcing trade diversion; EDC notes strong 2025 canola harvest volumes with **storage pressures** due to constrained export flows. ([edc.ca](https://www.edc.ca/en/article/china-tariffs-canola-exports.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Partial resolution / market re‑opening (2026):** - **January 13–16, 2026**: Canadian PM Mark Carney’s visit to China yields a **“strategic partnership” / preliminary tariff arrangement**, not a full FTA. ([dentons.com](https://www.dentons.com/en/insights/articles/2026/january/26/canada-and-china-reach-consensus-on-a-strategic-partnership?utm_source=openai)) - Key elements (various official and industry summaries): - **Canola seed**: China to cut combined duties on Canadian canola seed to about **15% by March 1, 2026**, down from effective levels near 85–100%. This aligns with reports that anti‑dumping duties are sharply reduced while the standard **9% tariff** remains, bringing overall duty to **~14.9–15%**. ([canolacouncil.org](https://www.canolacouncil.org/china-update/?utm_source=openai)) - **Canola meal, peas, aquatic products (seafood)**: - China to **suspend 100% tariffs on canola meal and peas**, and **suspend 25% tariffs on lobsters, crabs and certain aquatic products** from **March 1, 2026 through end‑2026**, potentially reopening **up to ~CAD 3 billion in annual exports** across these sectors. ([canolacouncil.org](https://www.canolacouncil.org/china-update/?utm_source=openai)) - **Pork and canola oil**: Some sources indicate tariffs remain in place or are only partially addressed; pork and refined canola oil still face elevated barriers relative to pre‑dispute conditions. ([edc.ca](https://www.edc.ca/en/article/china-tariffs-canola-exports.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Market flow implications 2026**: - **Canadian exports to China** of canola seed, meal, peas and selected seafood are expected to **rebound strongly from mid‑2026**, reversing some of the 2025 diversion to other Asia/Middle East markets. - For **Canadian agri‑food imports from China** into Canada, the main direct linkage is political: Canada’s willingness to lower EV tariffs (allowing up to **49,000 Chinese EVs at a 6.1% MFN rate**) signals a modest thaw that may reduce risk of new Chinese retaliation on Canadian food exports. ([globalnews.ca](https://globalnews.ca/news/11616599/canada-china-canola-tariffs-agreement/?utm_source=openai)) **3.2 USMCA/USMCA‑related disputes and agri‑food flows** - **Dairy TRQ disputes under USMCA (CUSMA)**: - The 2026 U.S. **National Trade Estimate (NTE)** again flags Canada’s administration of **dairy tariff‑rate quotas (TRQs)** as a significant barrier: - Canada’s over‑quota tariffs remain extremely high (**~245% for cheese, ~298% for butter**). ([ustr.gov](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2026/2026%20NTE%20Report%20_%20Final.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Multiple dispute settlement findings (2022–2023) criticized Canada’s exclusion of retailers and food‑service operators from TRQ eligibility, effectively limiting market access that USMCA was supposed to grant. ([ustr.gov](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2026/2026%20NTE%20Report%20_%20Final.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - While these disputes primarily constrain **U.S. dairy exports to Canada**, they indirectly affect **Canada’s import mix** by limiting U.S. share and preserving domestic production and EU/NZ niche imports under other agreements. - **United States–Canada tariff war (2025–2026)**: - Starting February 1, 2025, the U.S. imposed a **25% tariff on most Canadian goods and 10% on Canadian energy**, prompting Canadian retaliation including **25% tariffs on selected U.S. origin goods**, some of which are **agri‑food and processed food products**. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_United_States_trade_war_with_Canada_and_Mexico?utm_source=openai)) - By April 2025, Canada temporarily paused tariffs on certain U.S. goods used in Canadian manufacturing/food processing, but by early 2026 the broader trade conflict remained unresolved. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_United_States_trade_war_with_Canada_and_Mexico?utm_source=openai)) - For 2025 trade data (released March 2026), overall Canadian imports show: - **Total imports 2025 ~USD 563.9 billion**, with **53.3% from North America (U.S. + Mexico)**. Vehicles and metal products are the main decliners; agri‑food import categories are more stable but face higher landed costs where subject to tariffs. ([worldstopexports.com](https://www.worldstopexports.com/canadas-top-10-imports/?utm_source=openai)) **3.3 Canada’s own tariff/sanctions actions affecting agri‑food imports** - **China‑focused measures**: - Canada’s 100% tariff on Chinese EVs and 25% on steel/aluminum (Oct 2024) had limited direct effect on agri‑food imports, but triggered **Chinese retaliation on Canadian agri‑food exports**, which in turn **re‑routed Canadian origin product flows** (canola, peas, pork, seafood) away from China during 2025 and early 2026. ([cfib-fcei.ca](https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/advocacy/china-retaliatory-tariffs-on-key-canadian-agriculture-and-aquatic-products?utm_source=openai)) - **Trade remedy and SIMA activity**: - CBSA continues active **Special Import Measures Act (SIMA)** enforcement in 2026 (e.g., truck bodies, fertilizers, metals). While many cases are non‑food, they influence container availability and freight costs that also impact food import trade. ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/sima-lmsi/i-e/fgm2026/fgm2026-in-eng.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **General tariff environment**: - Bank of Canada’s Jan 28, 2026 MPR notes **higher global and U.S. tariff levels vs early 2025**, and incorporates into its baseline the **preliminary China–Canada agreement lowering Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola, while Canada moderates tariffs on a limited quota of Chinese EVs**. ([bankofcanada.ca](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2026-01-28/section-8/?utm_source=openai)) **3.4 Net effects on Canada’s 2026 agri‑food import and export flows** - **Exports (Canada to China and others):** - 2025 saw a sharp drop in Canadian exports of **canola oil/meal, peas, pork, and seafood** to China (in some cases >50% YoY declines), according to industry and trade association data. ([edc.ca](https://www.edc.ca/en/article/china-tariffs-canola-exports.html?utm_source=openai)) - From **March 1, 2026**, suspension or steep reductions of these Chinese tariffs are expected to **restore several million tonnes of grain/oilseed and significant seafood volumes** to China by year‑end 2026, though precise tonnage will depend on price spreads and logistics. ([canolacouncil.org](https://www.canolacouncil.org/china-update/?utm_source=openai)) - **Imports (into Canada):** - Overall, Canada’s **agri‑food import mix** is shaped by three simultaneous forces: 1. **USMCA dairy constraints** – keeping U.S. dairy import growth capped and heavily TRQ‑dependent. ([ustr.gov](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2026/2026%20NTE%20Report%20_%20Final.pdf?utm_source=openai)) 2. **2025–26 U.S.–Canada tariff war** – raising costs on some U.S. processed foods and ingredients, nudging diversification toward EU/Asia where tariffs are lower or unchanged. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_United_States_trade_war_with_Canada_and_Mexico?utm_source=openai)) 3. **Partial normalization with China** – reducing the risk of further Chinese retaliation and stabilizing **two‑way agri‑food trade**, particularly in seafood and feed grains. ([dentons.com](https://www.dentons.com/en/insights/articles/2026/january/26/canada-and-china-reach-consensus-on-a-strategic-partnership?utm_source=openai)) - Statistics Canada’s latest merchandise trade release (March 2026) shows **total imports by section and country** but does not yet fully isolate 2026 agri‑food by partner; however, early signals suggest **China regains share as a supplier of certain processed foods/ingredients** while U.S. share in some tariff‑affected categories stagnates. ([www150.statcan.gc.ca](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1210017101&utm_source=openai)) **3.5 Risk and opportunity for agri‑food importers into Canada** - **Risk factors:** - Persistent **U.S.–Canada tariff volatility** and unresolved USMCA disputes (e.g., dairy) create uncertainty in landed costs for U.S. origin agri‑food imports. ([ustr.gov](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2026/2026%20NTE%20Report%20_%20Final.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Ongoing **SIMA investigations** and high global tariffs multiply the risk of sudden duty hikes on input products (packaging steel/aluminum, fertilizers, etc.). ([cbsa-asfc.gc.ca](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/sima-lmsi/i-e/fgm2026/fgm2026-in-eng.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Opportunities:** - Re‑opening of Chinese markets for Canadian canola, peas, and seafood from March 2026 reduces domestic supply overhang and should **support farm‑gate prices**, but also stabilizes **supply chains into Canadian processing** (crush plants, seafood processors) that export or re‑import value‑added products. ([canolacouncil.org](https://www.canolacouncil.org/china-update/?utm_source=openai)) - Canada’s **trade diversification funding** (CAD 75 million over five years starting 2026–27) specifically targets industries hurt by foreign tariffs (e.g., canola) to help them develop **new high‑growth markets**; this may gradually re‑orient export and import corridors toward Southeast Asia, the Gulf and India beyond 2026. ([cfib-fcei.ca](https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/advocacy/china-retaliatory-tariffs-on-key-canadian-agriculture-and-aquatic-products?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Dimension 3** Canola Council and EDC on China tariffs and Jan 2026 agreement ([canolacouncil.org](https://www.canolacouncil.org/china-update/?utm_source=openai)) Canada–China strategic partnership / tariff easing details ([dentons.com](https://www.dentons.com/en/insights/articles/2026/january/26/canada-and-china-reach-consensus-on-a-strategic-partnership?utm_source=openai)) Canadian government statements on Chinese retaliatory tariffs (March 2025) ([canada.ca](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/03/statement-by-ministers-ng-macaulay-and-lebouthillier-on-chinas-anti-discrimination-investigation.html?utm_source=openai)) USMCA dairy TRQ disputes and tariff levels ([ustr.gov](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/2026/2026%20NTE%20Report%20_%20Final.pdf?utm_source=openai)) 2025–26 U.S.–Canada tariff war overview and trade impact ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_United_States_trade_war_with_Canada_and_Mexico?utm_source=openai)) Statistics Canada & trade/market data on imports by country/product section ([www150.statcan.gc.ca](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1210017101&utm_source=openai)) Canadian trade diversification and support measures for agri‑food sectors ([cfib-fcei.ca](https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/advocacy/china-retaliatory-tariffs-on-key-canadian-agriculture-and-aquatic-products?utm_source=openai))