Research Intel
Hook Candidates
1) Palm‑oil & bulk edible‑oil exporters are shipping more in 2025→2026 (Indonesia CPO exports up y/y; FOB/reference prices firm into early‑2026) while carriers are increasing transshipment and blank sailings on Asia–Europe/US trades. That creates an immediate problem for Indonesian exporters: they have volume to sell but face longer transit times, schedule unreliability and the need to find new buyers and locked‑in contracts to fill the slots they can negotiate in Q2 2026. Outreach angle: offer to introduce WSINDO’s exporter clients to Tridge Ark so Tridge can secure buyers and manage order flow while WSINDO captures the freight business — turning the current volume surge and the Q2 “rate negotiation window” into confirmed bookings.
2) Shrimp exporters are pivoting away from the US (tariffs in 2025) toward China, Japan, EU and GCC. That pivot demands new buyer relationships, sanitary/technical compliance support, and predictable export contracts — all while freight lanes are showing transshipment delays and selective blank sailings. Outreach angle: position Tridge Ark as a rapid market‑access/buyer‑matching channel for WSINDO’s seafood clients, reducing market re‑entry friction and generating higher, more stable outbound container volumes for WSINDO.
## Company Profile
PT. WSINDO GLOBAL LOGISTIK — Indonesian freight forwarder (lead_id pl-a373e4c99a50). Public records (SIUP/NIB) and company website (https://wsindo.net/) show a locally registered forwarding and logistics services firm offering international sea and air freight forwarding, customs clearance and export documentation support, and end‑to‑end shipment coordination for Indonesian exporters. Exact scale not publicly listed; company appears to operate as a small‑to‑mid regional forwarder focused on export cargoes from Indonesia.
## Pain Points
1) Schedule reliability & transit‑time risk: carriers’ use of transshipment and blank sailings in 2026 is increasing transit times and unpredictability on Asia–Europe/US trades. For a forwarder like WSINDO that relies on timely, repeat export shipments (palm oil, coffee, cocoa, shrimp), this raises claims, customer churn and harder rate negotiations.
2) Client market access and buyer diversification: Indonesian exporters (especially shrimp after US tariffs, and coffee/cocoa with rebounding production) need new buyers and verified contracts in China, EU, GCC and regional markets — forwarders are often asked to help find buyers but lack a trusted channel to do so.
3) Converting seasonal/temporary volume surges into steady bookings: 2025–early‑2026 saw export spikes (palm oil, coffee) creating short windows to lock in freight in Q2 2026. WSINDO likely needs a delivery channel that can convert exporter demand into confirmed, recurring export orders so freight capacity is booked reliably.
## Intel Summary
=== MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH ===
=== 1. COMMODITY TRENDS – INDONESIAN PALM OIL EXPORT VOLUMES & PRICES (LATEST 2025–2026) ===
• Export volumes (latest official data)
– Indonesia exported 23.61 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in 2025, up 9.1% y/y vs 2024, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS). ([brecorder.com](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40405252?utm_source=openai))
– From Jan–Nov 2025, palm‑oil export volumes rose 4.3% y/y to 20.85 million tons; export value climbed 19.2% to USD 21.63 billion, reflecting stronger prices. ([ice.it](https://www.ice.it/it/news/notizie-dal-mondo/297785?utm_source=openai))
– In December 2025 alone, CPO export volume hit about 2.75 million tons (up 102% m/m and 66.8% y/y), worth USD 2.79 billion, highlighting a year‑end export surge. ([bloombergtechnoz.com](https://www.bloombergtechnoz.com/detail-news/98395/volume-ekspor-cpo-capai-2-75-juta-ton-desember-2025-melesat-102?utm_source=openai))
• Export revenue and price levels
– For Jan–Aug 2025, palm‑oil export revenue reached USD 24.79 billion, up 43% y/y; the average CPO export price over that period was about USD 1,204/ton, versus USD 1,009/ton a year earlier (+19%). ([indonesiabusinesspost.com](https://indonesiabusinesspost.com/5557/markets-and-finance/indonesia-s-palm-oil-export-revenue-jumps-43-to-us-24-8-b-in-january-august-2025?utm_source=openai))
– Another data point for Jan–May 2025 shows Indonesia selling palm oil at an average USD 1,076/ton, consistent with elevated price levels vs 2024. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/indonesia/comments/1lq5beh?utm_source=openai))
– A December 2025 export unit price snapshot shows an average of ~USD 1.07/kg (≈USD 1,070/ton) for palm‑oil exports, indicating that FOB prices stayed above USD 1,000/ton into late 2025. ([insights.tridge.com](https://insights.tridge.com/product-country-monthly-update-market-insights/palm-oil/ID/2025-12?utm_source=openai))
• 2026 reference prices and spot indications (Indonesia origin)
– Indonesia’s official CPO export reference price (Ministry of Trade) for:
• Feb 1–28, 2026: USD 918.47/ton
• March 1–31, 2026: USD 938.87/ton (+2.22% m/m) ([idnfinancials.com](https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/61789/march-cpo-reference-price-rises-2-22-to-usd-938-87-per-mt?utm_source=openai))
• April 1–30, 2026: USD 989.63/ton (+5.4% vs March; +7.7% vs February), with authorities citing stronger demand and Middle East geopolitical risk (Strait of Hormuz disruptions) as drivers. ([antarafoto.com](https://www.antarafoto.com/view/2764905/the-reference-price-of-cpo-increases?utm_source=openai))
– KPBN (Indonesian domestic benchmark) CPO price reached about IDR 15,850/kg on 30 March 2026, up 0.88% d/d, with parallel gains on Bursa Malaysia futures – pointing to firm spot conditions entering Q2 2026. ([world-today-news.com](https://www.world-today-news.com/cpo-price-rises-to-rp-15850-kg-on-march-30-2026-infosawit/?utm_source=openai))
– RBD palm oil export prices in Indonesia were around USD 1,088/ton in March 2026; pressure from intense competition has led suppliers to use more flexible pricing to protect volumes. ([imarcgroup.com](https://www.imarcgroup.com/rbd-palm-oil-pricing-report?utm_source=openai))
• International futures and origin differentials
– Malaysian CPO futures settled near USD 1,194/ton at end‑March 2026, ~USD 154/ton higher than a month earlier; the FOB Indonesia basis (discount vs Malaysia) widened from USD 70.25 to USD 93.50/ton, implying Indonesia FOB around USD 1,100/ton at end‑March. ([cmegroup.com](https://www.cmegroup.com/newsletters/monthly-palm-oil-report/april-2026-palm-oil-update.html?utm_source=openai))
– A survey of industry participants by S&P Global indicates benchmark palm‑oil futures are expected to average lower in full‑year 2026 than in 2025, as Indonesian and Malaysian supplies improve; their data put average 2025 Indonesian FOB CPO at about USD 1,090/ton. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/010626-palm-oil-prices-to-weaken-in-2026-biofuel-policy-clarity-crucial-survey?utm_source=openai))
• Production and structural context
– Analytical outlooks for 1H 2026 note “broadly supportive” palm‑oil demand from India, China and other Asian buyers, with seasonal restocking around Lunar New Year and Ramadan, but also point to rising output and higher stocks as cap on prices in the second half of 2026. ([ocbc.com](https://www.ocbc.com/iwov-resources/sg/ocbc/gbc/pdf/commodities%20research/outlook/2026/1h26%20commodities%20outlook.pdf?utm_source=openai))
– Improved weather and yield recovery in Indonesia into 2026 are expected to lift output versus 2024–25 levels, reinforcing the view of a slightly looser balance despite strong biodiesel and food demand. ([fedepalma.org](https://fedepalma.org/conferenciainternacional/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Glenauk_Presentation-to-Fedepalma-Conference-2025.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**Interpretive summary for 2026 YTD (up to mid‑May)**
• Volumes: 2025 export volumes grew 4–9% y/y depending on coverage; early‑2026 monthly data (Dec 2025 spike plus higher reference prices) suggest Indonesia entered 2026 with strong export momentum. ([brecorder.com](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40405252?utm_source=openai))
• Prices: FOB Indonesia CPO is trading roughly USD 1,050–1,150/ton in Q1–early Q2 2026 (reference prices ~USD 920–990/ton; futures and basis indicate higher spot), up from mid‑2024 but below extreme 2022 peaks. ([idnfinancials.com](https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/61789/march-cpo-reference-price-rises-2-22-to-usd-938-87-per-mt?utm_source=openai))
• Trend: Short‑term (Q1–Q2 2026) prices firm on geopolitical risk and biofuel/food demand; medium‑term (late‑2026) consensus expects some weakening as supply from Indonesia and Malaysia expands.
=== 2. MARKET EVENTS – SOUTHEAST ASIA CONTAINER FREIGHT RATES, CAPACITY SHIFTS & BLANK SAILINGS (LATEST 2026) ===
• Global benchmark level and recent movement (Q2 2026)
– Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) on 30 April 2026 fell 1% w/w to USD 2,216 per 40ft container, marking a third straight weekly decline from a short‑term peak; overall rates remain well above 2023–early‑2024 lows. ([shipuniverse.com](https://www.shipuniverse.com/news/drewry-wci-slips-again-as-container-spot-rates-keep-losing-altitude/?utm_source=openai))
– A subsequent early‑May WCI update (7 May 2026) shows the index rebounding 3% to USD 2,286/FEU, driven by higher rates on Transpacific and Asia–Europe lanes as carriers implemented emergency fuel surcharges (EFS) and peak‑season surcharges (PSS). ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1t6bg7e/drewry_world_container_index_excerpt_the_drewry/?utm_source=openai))
• Asia–Europe & Transpacific spot dynamics (including Southeast Asia loadings)
– Freightos Baltic Index data for late April 2026 indicate:
• Asia–US West Coast spot +1% w/w;
• Asia–US East Coast +3% w/w;
• Asia–Europe rates more than 15% higher y/y and over 50% above October 2025 low‑demand levels, in part due to elevated fuel costs linked to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai))
– Lloyd’s List and other shipping analysis summarise Shanghai–Los Angeles (Transpacific) at ~USD 2,900/FEU in mid‑April 2026, with Asia–Europe also above pre‑war (pre‑Hormuz closure) levels even though underlying demand is not particularly strong. ([lloydslist.com](https://www.lloydslist.com/-/media/lloyds-list/daily-pdf/2026/04-april/dailypdf130426.pdf?rev=cc81c99a86004171a54f7ce45ac607ed&utm_source=openai))
• Capacity shifts, transshipment and Southeast Asia routing
– A recent 2026 freight‑lane study focused on Southeast Asia characterises the region as a “vessel‑overcapacity meets surging demand” market:
• Carriers have cascaded additional capacity into Southeast Asia services (including Indonesia and Vietnam) as part of global fleet expansion, even as global trade growth slows to around 1.7% in 2026. ([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/southeast-asia-freight-lane-intelligence-2026?utm_source=openai))
• Direct services have in many cases been replaced by routed services involving at least one transshipment. What was an 18‑day direct sailing in early 2025 between a Southeast Asian export port and destination can now involve a Colombo or Port Klang transshipment, adding 4–7 days to transit time. ([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/southeast-asia-freight-lane-intelligence-2026?utm_source=openai))
• The report identifies Q2 2026 as the “best rate negotiation window” on Southeast Asia lanes, with structurally favorable conditions for shippers due to capacity overhang despite growing demand from diversifying importers. ([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/southeast-asia-freight-lane-intelligence-2026?utm_source=openai))
• Blank sailings and effective capacity management (2026)
– One 2026 review of carrier behavior reports 47 blank sailings announced across major East–West headhaul trades for March–April 2026: ([shippingintelligencehub.com](https://shippingintelligencehub.com/article/carriers-blank-sailings-asia-europe-demand-2026-02-26?utm_source=openai))
• Asia–Europe: 28 cancelled voyages (around 60% of the total), reflecting soft demand and efforts to defend rate levels. ([shippingintelligencehub.com](https://shippingintelligencehub.com/article/carriers-blank-sailings-asia-europe-demand-2026-02-26?utm_source=openai))
• Transpacific Eastbound (Asia–North America): 14 blank sailings announced, focused on Asia–US West Coast. ([shippingintelligencehub.com](https://shippingintelligencehub.com/article/carriers-blank-sailings-asia-europe-demand-2026-02-26?utm_source=openai))
– A March 2026 shipping barometer notes that vessel utilisation on Asia–Europe/Med dropped to around 59% – the lowest since April 2025 – even as carriers withdrew capacity via blank sailings, underscoring surplus slot availability. ([market-insights.upply.com](https://market-insights.upply.com/hubfs/barometres-upply/2026/032026_Barom%C3%A8tre%20shipping/shipping-barometer-march-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai))
– Industry commentary in April 2026 also highlights that blank sailings are being used as a signaling and pricing tool: carriers “market” scarcity to maintain a price floor while actual demand remains soft and space is manageable, particularly on China–US and broader Asia–US routes which include Southeast Asia load ports. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1sm7dvh/space_tightens_on_chinaus_routes_despite_weak/?utm_source=openai))
• India–China–Southeast Asia routing and capacity
– S&P Global’s 2026 ocean freight outlook expects overall rates to soften as new capacity is delivered and global trade growth moderates, but also flags regional volatility around India–China and Southeast Asia corridors given geopolitics and shifting sourcing patterns. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai))
– The Southeast Asia freight‑lane analysis notes:
• More services now link India and Southeast Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean via “South Asia gateways” such as Colombo; this has increased the share of transshipped rather than direct sailings for both Indian and Southeast Asian exporters. ([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/southeast-asia-freight-lane-intelligence-2026?utm_source=openai))
• For shippers running “China + 1” or “China + 2” origin strategies (e.g., China + Vietnam + India), minimum carrier portfolios in 2026 typically include at least three alliances or carriers to manage the risk of ad‑hoc blank sailings and port omissions across China, India and Southeast Asia. ([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/southeast-asia-freight-lane-intelligence-2026?utm_source=openai))
**Interpretive summary for 2026 (up to mid‑May)**
• Headline indices show mid‑range but rising volatility: WCI ~USD 2,200–2,300/FEU, Asia–Europe and Transpacific rates modestly up y/y and significantly higher than late‑2025 floors. ([shipuniverse.com](https://www.shipuniverse.com/news/drewry-wci-slips-again-as-container-spot-rates-keep-losing-altitude/?utm_source=openai))
• Structural picture on Southeast Asia lanes: significant vessel overcapacity coexists with growing demand from origin‑diversifying buyers; carriers respond with transshipment‑heavy networks and tactical blank sailings to stabilise yields. ([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/southeast-asia-freight-lane-intelligence-2026?utm_source=openai))
• For exporters in Indonesia and broader Southeast Asia, this implies: better negotiation power on base freight in Q2 2026, but heightened transit‑time risk and schedule reliability issues due to transshipment and blank sailings, especially on Asia–Europe and Asia–US trades.
=== 3. DEMAND SIGNALS – BUYERS SHIFTING SOURCING TO SOUTHEAST ASIA & DEMAND FOR INDONESIAN COFFEE, COCOA, SHRIMP (2025–2026) ===
**3.1 Macro sourcing shift to South & Southeast Asia**
• A Q2 2026 global supply‑chain barometer (QIMA) shows:
– China’s share of US sourcing (based on inspection volumes) fell to 27% in Q1 2026, down from 30% in full‑year 2025. ([qima.com](https://www.qima.com/newsroom/news/news-q2-2026-barometer?utm_source=openai))
– Over the same period, demand for inspections in South and Southeast Asia rose 21% y/y, led by Vietnam (+61%), India (+33%) and Cambodia (+26%); Indonesia and Thailand also saw growth, though at more moderate rates. ([qima.com](https://www.qima.com/newsroom/news/news-q2-2026-barometer?utm_source=openai))
– Report characterises diversification away from China and toward South/Southeast Asia as “the defining trend of the past two years” for Western buyers. ([qima.com](https://www.qima.com/newsroom/news/news-q2-2026-barometer?utm_source=openai))
*Implication*: While these data are cross‑sector (not just food), they confirm active re‑allocation of sourcing to the region that benefits Indonesian agri‑exports, particularly where Indonesia is a leading origin (coffee, cocoa products, shrimp, palm‑derived value chains).
**3.2 Indonesian coffee – production rebound and export demand**
• Production & export outlook
– A recent 2025/26 crop report projects Indonesian green coffee exports at ~7.8 million 60‑kg bags, up 27% vs 2024/25, driven by a strong production rebound after weather disruptions and strong global demand for robusta. ([stonex.com](https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/indonesia-coffee-crop-2025-26-production-rebounds-weather-intensifies-and-export-pressures-mount/?utm_source=openai))
– Government trade data cited in the same report show April–August 2025 coffee shipments 83% higher y/y, indicating that export volumes were already ramping up before the 2025/26 harvest peak. ([stonex.com](https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/indonesia-coffee-crop-2025-26-production-rebounds-weather-intensifies-and-export-pressures-mount/?utm_source=openai))
• Demand and destination mix
– The report highlights “soaring” global robusta demand, especially from Europe and Asia, positioning Indonesia as the second‑largest regional robusta supplier and a key alternative to Vietnam and Brazil. ([stonex.com](https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/indonesia-coffee-crop-2025-26-production-rebounds-weather-intensifies-and-export-pressures-mount/?utm_source=openai))
– A December 2025 DHL market note on “new coffee markets for Indonesian exporters” states that exporters are actively diversifying beyond mature US and EU buyers toward:
• Gulf markets (UAE and wider GCC), where premiumisation and demand for traceable, origin‑specific coffee are rising;
• East Asia, with emerging specialty demand in South Korea, Japan, and China;
• intra‑ASEAN opportunities. ([dhl.com](https://www.dhl.com/discover/en-id/small-business-advice/business-innovation-trends/emerging-markets-for-indonesian-coffee-exporters?utm_source=openai))
*Demand‑side signal*:
• Importers and roasters are using Indonesian robusta as a hedge against price and climate risk in other origins, with 27% projected export growth and an 83% April–August 2025 shipment jump pointing to strong underlying demand into 2026. ([stonex.com](https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/indonesia-coffee-crop-2025-26-production-rebounds-weather-intensifies-and-export-pressures-mount/?utm_source=openai))
• Market‑development efforts are explicitly targeting origin diversification on the **buying** side (new buyers in Gulf, East Asia) and destination diversification on the **selling** side (Indonesian exporters seeking not to over‑rely on US/EU). ([dhl.com](https://www.dhl.com/discover/en-id/small-business-advice/business-innovation-trends/emerging-markets-for-indonesian-coffee-exporters?utm_source=openai))
**3.3 Indonesian cocoa – processed exports and US demand**
• Trade flows
– UN Comtrade‑based estimates compiled by Trading Economics show Indonesia’s exports of “cocoa and cocoa preparations” to the United States at USD 619.1 million in 2025, with data updated as of May 2026. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/exports/united-states/cocoa-cocoa-preparations?utm_source=openai))
– A March 2026 cocoa‑market analysis notes that Indonesia remains Asia’s largest cocoa producer and grinder; while cocoa bean exports have declined from a 2020 peak (~210,000 MT), exports of processed cocoa (butter, powder, liquor) have grown, shifting Indonesia further up the value chain. ([farrellymitchell.com](https://farrellymitchell.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Cocoa-Report.pdf?utm_source=openai))
• Demand signals
– The same report emphasises sustained demand for Indonesian cocoa products from North American and European confectionery and beverage manufacturers seeking diversified supply beyond West Africa amid extreme price volatility and crop issues there. ([farrellymitchell.com](https://farrellymitchell.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Cocoa-Report.pdf?utm_source=openai))
*Demand‑side signal*:
• The USD ~0.6 bn export figure to the US in 2025, together with the shift toward processed cocoa exports, suggests stable to growing demand for Indonesian cocoa ingredients, with buyers using Indonesia as a diversification origin relative to West African suppliers. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/exports/united-states/cocoa-cocoa-preparations?utm_source=openai))
**3.4 Indonesian shrimp – tariffs, market re‑orientation and demand**
• Trade performance 2024–2025
– In H1 2025, Indonesia shipped 53,447 MT of shrimp, up 11% y/y; export value rose 23% to USD 448 million, indicating firmer unit values. The US remained the largest destination in June 2025 (9,908 MT, flat y/y), while EU‑27 and Canada imports from Indonesia were up 35% and 33% respectively; China imports were up 19% in H1 2025. ([shrimpinsights.com](https://www.shrimpinsights.com/byte/indonesian-shrimp-exports-bounce-back-h1-2025-tariff-twist-boosts-us-market-outlook?utm_source=openai))
– A Tridge analysis of 2025 trends notes that despite a sharp 59% y/y drop in shrimp export volumes in October 2025, Indonesia’s exports to Japan (+6%), EU (+47%) and China (+16%) grew over the first 11 months of 2025, while US volumes fell 12%, underscoring a re‑balancing of destination mix. ([insights.tridge.com](https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLdT6oayM9JRwmZhtNPh73J8?utm_source=openai))
• US tariff shock and pivot to China / alternative markets
– 2025 saw the imposition of US anti‑dumping or related tariffs of around 19% on Indonesian shrimp exports, with local industry estimates warning of up to a 30% fall in shipments to the US versus 2024 and risks to approximately one million jobs. ([wusata.org](https://www.wusata.org/downloads/files/Marketing%20Intelligence%20Reports/WUSATA_Contractor_Market_Intelligence_Report_-2025_08-_ASEAN_%281%29.pdf?utm_source=openai))
– Indonesian government and industry responses include explicit plans to deepen sales to China as an alternative anchor market, while also growing exports to Japan and the EU. ([wusata.org](https://www.wusata.org/downloads/files/Marketing%20Intelligence%20Reports/WUSATA_Contractor_Market_Intelligence_Report_-2025_08-_ASEAN_%281%29.pdf?utm_source=openai))
– A March 2026 shrimp‑market outlook from S&P Global expects mixed global conditions: Ecuador to continue expanding exports, India to grapple with US tariffs and diversify markets, and generally stable EU demand supported by retail and foodservice programs – a context in which Indonesia’s strategy to pivot toward China and other Asian buyers aligns with broader market shifts. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/120825-commodities-2026-shrimp-markets-to-see-mixed-trends-as-ecuador-exports-rise-india-navigates-tariffs?utm_source=openai))
• 2026 early‑year status
– A detailed April 2026 update notes that Indonesian shrimp exports “normalised” in early 2026 after very strong 2025 comparables; China continued to expand as a key buyer, with 2025 imports from Indonesia reaching 13,753 MT (+27% y/y). ([shrimpinsights.com](https://www.shrimpinsights.com/byte/indonesia-shrimp-exports-normalize-early-2026-after-strong-2025-comparisons?utm_source=openai))
*Demand‑side signal*:
• Net effect of US tariffs is clear origin‑diversification on the **buyer** side: US buyers may lean more on Ecuador, India, Vietnam, while Indonesian producers increasingly target China, EU and Japan. Indonesia’s total export demand remains supported, but destination mix is shifting materially toward Asia and Europe. ([shrimpinsights.com](https://www.shrimpinsights.com/byte/indonesia-shrimp-exports-normalize-early-2026-after-strong-2025-comparisons?utm_source=openai))
**3.5 Cross‑cutting: buyers shifting to Southeast Asia as a diversified origin**
• Supply‑chain and trade‑network studies show:
– Post‑COVID and under “triple crises” (pandemic, geopolitics, climate), multinational corporations have been relocating production and sourcing from China toward Southeast Asia, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia as key beneficiaries; this is documented in econometric analyses of offshore decisions and GVC participation. ([arxiv.org](https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.07525?utm_source=openai))
– A 2026 food‑trade network study finds that animal and vegetable fats (including palm and related value chains) have become more centralised around Indonesia and Malaysia, making these origins systemically important and attractive for buyers seeking volume security – but also concentrating risk. ([arxiv.org](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.01740?utm_source=openai))
*Overall demand‑side conclusion for Indonesian coffee, cocoa, shrimp in 2026:*
• **Coffee:** Strong rebound in production and exports (+27% forecast, +83% shipments in Apr–Aug 2025) combined with robusta‑driven demand in Europe/Asia and diversification into Gulf and Asian markets signals elevated and geographically broader demand for Indonesian coffee in 2026. ([dhl.com](https://www.dhl.com/discover/en-id/small-business-advice/business-innovation-trends/emerging-markets-for-indonesian-coffee-exporters?utm_source=openai))
• **Cocoa:** US imports of Indonesian cocoa and preparations (~USD 619m in 2025) plus a structural shift to processed cocoa exports indicate continued, possibly increasing, appetite from major confectionery buyers seeking alternatives to West African origins. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/exports/united-states/cocoa-cocoa-preparations?utm_source=openai))
• **Shrimp:** Despite US tariff headwinds, Indonesia is sustaining demand via market diversification – increasing exports to China, EU, Japan and Canada – leveraging buyers’ broader shift of seafood sourcing into Asia/Southeast Asia. The headline risk is destination re‑mix rather than collapse in global demand. ([shrimpinsights.com](https://www.shrimpinsights.com/byte/indonesia-shrimp-exports-normalize-early-2026-after-strong-2025-comparisons?utm_source=openai))
Sources:
• Indonesia’s 2025 palm oil exports volume at 23.61 million metric tons - Markets - Business Recorder
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40405252?utm_source=openai
• INDONESIAN PALM OIL EXPORTS UP 19% TO USD21.63 BILLION
https://www.ice.it/it/news/notizie-dal-mondo/297785?utm_source=openai
• Volume Ekspor CPO Capai 2,75 Juta Ton Desember 2025, Melesat 102% - Market
https://www.bloombergtechnoz.com/detail-news/98395/volume-ekspor-cpo-capai-2-75-juta-ton-desember-2025-melesat-102?utm_source=openai
• Indonesia’s palm oil export revenue jumps 43% to US$24.8 B in January–August 2025 | Indonesia Business Post
https://indonesiabusinesspost.com/5557/markets-and-finance/indonesia-s-palm-oil-export-revenue-jumps-43-to-us-24-8-b-in-january-august-2025?utm_source=openai
• Indonesia’s Palm Oil Exports Surge 27.89% with Pakistan, India as Top Buyers
https://www.reddit.com/r/indonesia/comments/1lq5beh?utm_source=openai
• Indonesia Palm Oil Monthly Update Dec 2025: Import Prices, Suppliers & Market News | Tridge
https://insights.tridge.com/product-country-monthly-update-market-insights/palm-oil/ID/2025-12?utm_source=openai
• March CPO reference price rises 2.22% to USD 938.87 per MT | IDNFinancials
https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/61789/march-cpo-reference-price-rises-2-22-to-usd-938-87-per-mt?utm_source=openai
• The reference price of CPO increases | ANTARA Foto
https://www.antarafoto.com/view/2764905/the-reference-price-of-cpo-increases?utm_source=openai
• CPO Price Rises to Rp 15,850/kg on March 30, 2026 | InfoSAWIT - World Today News
https://www.world-today-news.com/cpo-price-rises-to-rp-15850-kg-on-march-30-2026-infosawit/?utm_source=openai
• RBD Palm Oil Prices: Trends, Chart & Forecast 2026
https://www.imarcgroup.com/rbd-palm-oil-pricing-report?utm_source=openai
• Palm Oil Monthly Update – April 2026 - CME Group
https://www.cmegroup.com/newsletters/monthly-palm-oil-report/april-2026-palm-oil-update.html?utm_source=openai
• Palm oil prices to weaken in 2026, biofuel policy clarity crucial: survey | S&P Global
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/010626-palm-oil-prices-to-weaken-in-2026-biofuel-policy-clarity-crucial-survey?utm_source=openai
• 1H2026 Commodities Outlook
https://www.ocbc.com/iwov-resources/sg/ocbc/gbc/pdf/commodities%20research/outlook/2026/1h26%20commodities%20outlook.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Palm Oil:
Performance in 2025
and Outlook for 20
https://fedepalma.org/conferenciainternacional/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Glenauk_Presentation-to-Fedepalma-Conference-2025.pdf?utm_source=openai
(truncated for brevity)