## Company Profile SCHENKER LIMITED (DB Schenker - Kenya) — freight forwarder / logistics operator. Local office led by Samuel G. Momanyi (Head of GPIS Kenya). Part of DB Schenker’s global network offering freight forwarding (air/sea), project & industrial services, customs clearance and end‑to‑end logistics solutions in Kenya and East Africa. Serves exporters (horticulture, perishables), importers, and industrial clients moving cargo through Mombasa and JKIA; positioned as a major international 3PL with local handling capability and access to carrier networks. Evidence: DB Schenker GPIS contacts list referenced in lead memo. ## Pain Points 1) Schedule reliability & breakage risk for horticulture clients: Record Mombasa volumes, recurring congestion and 2026 flood‑driven inland delays are increasing the risk of missed sailings/airlift and product loss for perishable exporters (flowers, avocados). Shippers need reliable buyer matches and premium uplift solutions. 2) Peak‑period air capacity pressure & commercial timing: Strong front‑loading into H1 2026 (UK tariff suspension ending 30 June 2026) plus seasonal peaks (Valentine’s/Mother’s/Mother’s Day) mean clients need block space/charter options and buyer commitments to justify costs. 3) Regulatory & market‑access friction: EU phytosanitary/pesticide protocols and changing UK tariff rules are reshaping demand and routing; exporters need rapid market intelligence and buyer sourcing to avoid lost sales or costly re‑routing. ## Intel Summary === MARKET_INTELLIGENCE === Below is a structured read‑out against your three dimensions, with a 2026 lens and focus on Kenya–Europe perishable trade (sea + air). Where figures are 2025/early‑2026 I note that explicitly. --- ## 1. Market events – Kenya trade & port developments (Mombasa / East Africa maritime) ### 1.1 Throughput and performance signals - Mombasa handled about **45.45m tonnes in 2025**, up ~10.9% vs 2024, a historic high and seen locally as momentum into 2026. ([ejersa.com](https://ejersa.com/port-of-mombasa-sets-record-volumes-setting-pace-for-regional-trade-in-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Government communication in early 2026 flags **“historic cargo growth”** and an increase in vessel calls, implying demand growth is outpacing operations and infrastructure. ([transport.go.ke](https://www.transport.go.ke/sites/default/files/2026-04/PRESS%20RELEASE%20-%20UPHOLD%20PROFESSIONALISM%2C%20ETHICS%20AND%20INTEGRITY%20IN%20YOUR%20WORK%2C%20HEAD%20OF%20PUBLIC%20SERVICE%20TELLS%20STAFF%20IN%20ROADS%20AND%20TRANSPORT%20SECTORS.pdf?utm_source=openai)) Net: underlying **demand and volumes are strong**, but operational strain is visible. ### 1.2 Congestion and operational frictions in 2026 - Real‑time congestion trackers show **material vessel delays at Mombasa in May 2026**, with waiting times and berth delays still an issue. ([portcast.io](https://www.portcast.io/port-congestion/mombasa?utm_source=openai)) - Kenya’s own manufacturing lobby (MPA 2026) reports that **Oct–Dec 2025 saw significant congestion**, and importers were hit by “two major operational dynamics” at Mombasa in mid‑Dec 2025 (additional checks, disruptions), carrying into 2026 planning. ([kam.co.ke](https://kam.co.ke/resource-centre/manufacturing-priority-agenda/2026/MANUFACTURING-PRIORITY-AGENDA-MPA-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - World Bank’s CPPI 2020–24 ranks Mombasa **375th globally** in 2024, underscoring structural efficiency gaps versus competing hubs. ([peopledaily.digital](https://peopledaily.digital/business/why-mombasa-port-faces-congestion-challenges?utm_source=openai)) **Implication:** Expect **episodic congestion spikes to remain a planning assumption in 2026**, especially around seasonal import peaks (fertilizer, consumer goods) and weather disruptions. ### 1.3 Infrastructure & regulatory developments - East African context: - Mombasa remains **the primary deep‑sea gateway for Kenya/Uganda/Rwanda/DRC** despite ongoing corridor diversification (Lamu, Dar es Salaam, inland dry ports). ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilindini_Harbour?utm_source=openai)) - Kenyan government communications in 2025–26 emphasize **road/rail improvements and decongestion measures** around Mombasa; SGR + improved road links are intended to shift more volume inland faster, but congestion commentary shows these are **not yet fully absorbing growth**. ([transport.go.ke](https://www.transport.go.ke/sites/default/files/2026-04/PRESS%20RELEASE%20-%20UPHOLD%20PROFESSIONALISM%2C%20ETHICS%20AND%20INTEGRITY%20IN%20YOUR%20WORK%2C%20HEAD%20OF%20PUBLIC%20SERVICE%20TELLS%20STAFF%20IN%20ROADS%20AND%20TRANSPORT%20SECTORS.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Customs / documentation: **KRA requirement for Certificates of Origin on all imports from Oct 1, 2025** adds documentation complexity but mainly on inbound flows; still relevant for container availability and yard dwell times. ([peopledaily.digital](https://peopledaily.digital/business/why-mombasa-port-faces-congestion-challenges?utm_source=openai)) ### 1.4 2026 floods – logistics risk overlay - From **early March 2026**, Kenya has experienced severe flooding, particularly in Nairobi and along key transport arteries like **Mombasa Road and Uhuru Highway**, causing major traffic disruptions. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kenya_floods?utm_source=openai)) - For exporters trucking perishables from highland production zones to JKIA and Mombasa, this adds **unpredictable lead‑time and risk of missed sailings/flights** in Q2 2026. **Take‑away for market events** - Structural: **Mombasa remains capacity‑constrained and operationally fragile**, even as volumes hit records. - Cyclical: **Flood‑related inland delays** in 2026 and **documentation/inland logistics frictions** from 2025 are amplifying transit time volatility on East Africa maritime routes. - For export planners: continue to treat **schedule reliability and port dwell time at Mombasa as key risk variables** in 2026, with a need for buffer days or alternative routings (Dar es Salaam, even sea–air combinations via Gulf hubs for high‑value cargo). --- ## 2. Demand signals – Kenya horticulture export trends & air cargo (EU / UK / NL focus) ### 2.1 Macro horticulture performance and product mix - Kenya’s horticultural exports (flowers, fruits, vegetables) **remained a top foreign‑exchange earner in 2024–25**, but: - **Cut flowers:** Export value dipped slightly in 2024 (KSh 72.1bn vs 73.5bn in 2023) before rebounding; still the **dominant sub‑sector**. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/eu-protocols-slash-kenyas-vegetable-exports-as-cut-flowers-face-tightened-scrutiny/?utm_source=openai)) - **Overall horticulture:** Export earnings in 2024 fell by about **KSh 20.1bn to 136.6bn**, driven by stricter EU protocols and some air‑cargo constraints at JKIA. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/eu-protocols-slash-kenyas-vegetable-exports-as-cut-flowers-face-tightened-scrutiny/?utm_source=openai)) - Q3 2025 saw a **strong rebound**: horticultural exports were valued at **KSh 31.3bn** Jul–Sep 2025, with **Netherlands clearly the dominant market** for flowers, vegetables and fruits. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/kenyas-horticultural-exports-thrive-in-last-years-q3-amid-global-demand/?utm_source=openai)) **Demand profile by product:** - **Cut flowers** - Kenya remains the **world’s #3 cut‑flower exporter**, with floriculture export value around **US$1.15bn in 2025**; roses dominate. ([exportready.africa](https://exportready.africa/fresh-produce-prices/kenya-cut-flower-export-market-roses-prices-season/?utm_source=openai)) - Destination split (approx 2025): **Netherlands ~47%**, **UK ~15%**, **Germany ~7%**, with Middle East & non‑EU markets growing. ([exportready.africa](https://exportready.africa/fresh-produce-prices/kenya-cut-flower-export-market-roses-prices-season/?utm_source=openai)) - **Avocados** - Strong growth into EU and UK in recent years; some trade/promo work highlights that Kenya still has a **relatively modest share of the UK avocado market (c. 2%) but rising**, suggesting ongoing upside for export volumes. ([gov.uk](https://www.gov.uk/government/case-studies/increasing-uk-kenya-trade-and-investment-in-the-horticulture-sector?utm_source=openai)) - **Vegetables** - More negatively impacted by **EU pesticide residue rules and protocols**, with reports of **significant reductions in veg export volumes** and heavier compliance costs since 2022–24. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/eu-protocols-slash-kenyas-vegetable-exports-as-cut-flowers-face-tightened-scrutiny/?utm_source=openai)) **Signal:** **Flowers and avocados are carrying growth; vegetables remain under regulatory pressure.** ### 2.2 Regulatory and market‑access dynamics (EU / UK) - **EU phytosanitary & pest controls** - FCM (False Codling Moth) regulations since 2017, affecting flowers, citrus, avocado, vegetables, continue to drive inspection intensity. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/averting-disruption-of-flowers-export-to-the-european-union/?utm_source=openai)) - In **July 2024**, EU introduced **Regulation 2004/2024** with more stringent measures on **fresh cut roses**, raising inspection and potential rejection risk for Kenyan exports to EU. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/averting-disruption-of-flowers-export-to-the-european-union/?utm_source=openai)) - **EU pesticide residue protocols** - 2022 directive tightened MRLs on certain pesticides; by 2024 this had **“slashed” Kenyan vegetable exports** and increased scrutiny on flowers as well. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/eu-protocols-slash-kenyas-vegetable-exports-as-cut-flowers-face-tightened-scrutiny/?utm_source=openai)) - **UK tariff environment (critical 2026 event)** - UK’s two‑year suspension of **8% Global Tariff on cut flowers** is due to **expire 30 June 2026**. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/uks-8-tariff-suspension-on-east-african-cut-flowers-nears-critical-end-in-june-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Under the UK–Kenya EPA, direct exports can still access preferential treatment, but there is **uncertainty on how the end of the suspension interacts with routings via EU hubs (e.g., Amsterdam auctions)** and with non‑EPA origin rules. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/uks-8-tariff-suspension-on-east-african-cut-flowers-nears-critical-end-in-june-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - UK imports of Kenyan cut flowers increased **~21.6% in the first seven months of 2025**, showing strong demand from UK buyers during the low‑tariff window. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/uks-8-tariff-suspension-on-east-african-cut-flowers-nears-critical-end-in-june-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Demand implication 2H 2026:** - Expect **front‑loading of UK orders for cut flowers ahead of June 30, 2026**, and **potential softening or re‑routing via EU after tariff suspension ends**, depending on the final UK regime and how well suppliers can structure direct shipments under the EPA. ### 2.3 Air‑cargo demand – Nairobi (JKIA) and horticulture - JKIA remains the **core African airfreight hub for flowers and perishables** (Nairobi Flower Corridor). Airlines such as Astral Aviation and handlers like Swissport have been scaling dedicated capacity: - Swissport expanded its **“Flower Corridor” infrastructure and handling capacity** at NBO, adding **35 extra freighter flights around Valentine’s Day peaks**, and has replicated the model at **Amsterdam and Liège**, reinforcing the NBO–AMS perishables corridor. ([swissport.com](https://www.swissport.com/en/news/press-release/2025/20250211_mediarelease_swissport-expands-flower-logistics-capacity-ahead-of-valentine-s-day-peak-demand?utm_source=openai)) - Kenyan economic surveys note that **cargo restrictions at JKIA** have been a factor in the 2024 dip in horticultural export earnings, implying that **slot/weight constraints and security measures have at times capped exportable volumes**. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/eu-protocols-slash-kenyas-vegetable-exports-as-cut-flowers-face-tightened-scrutiny/?utm_source=openai)) **Seasonality & 2026 patterning:** - Demand spikes on NBO–AMS/Europe are **strongly seasonal**: - Flowers: Valentine’s Day, International Women’s Day, Easter, Mother’s Day, All Saints, Christmas/New Year. ([exportready.africa](https://exportready.africa/fresh-produce-prices/kenya-cut-flower-export-market-roses-prices-season/?utm_source=openai)) - Avocados & veg: EU summer vs winter seasons; UK supermarket promotions. - With the **UK tariff suspension ending June 2026**, you can expect **elevated cut‑flower liftings Jan–Jun 2026**, particularly into UK via NL, followed by a possible **shift in mix (more direct UK EPA‑compliant shipments, or share loss to competitor origins if costs rise).** --- ## 3. Problem framing – freight rates & capacity Kenya–Europe (sea + air, 2026) ### 3.1 Containerized sea freight – structure of the market - Horticulture exports to Europe are still predominantly **air‑freighted**, but: - Certain **vegetable lines and processed/frozen products** increasingly use **reefer containers ex‑Mombasa**. - EU protocol‑driven decline in some fresh veg flows reduces pressure on reefers slightly, but **overall port congestion + import growth keeps equipment tight**. - Market commentary around Mombasa emphasizes **high vessel calls and throughput “beating forecasts despite ongoing congestion” as of May 2026**. ([hylios.com](https://www.hylios.com/intelligence/mombasa-port-cargo-beats-forecasts-despite-ongoing-congestion-c486ee?utm_source=openai)) **Implication for 2026 sea freight rates:** - Continued congestion and port inefficiency generally support **elevated all‑in freight levels vs pre‑COVID norms**, with: - **Premiums for reefers** on Europe lanes (capacity‑constrained, must compete with meat/fish, bananas, etc.). - Periodic **GRI/peak season surcharges** triggered around Q3 consumer‑goods import peaks; horticulture exporters are price‑takers here. (There isn’t a single public benchmark for 2026 Kenya–EU box rates yet, but structural drivers point to **above‑trend volatility and premiums for reliability**.) ### 3.2 Air‑freight rates – Nairobi–Amsterdam and other EU hubs Public rate quotes are commercial, but directional trends are clear: - **Capacity side:** - Dedicated freighter uplift ex‑NBO has expanded (e.g. Swissport‑supported additional freighters around Valentine’s; Astral and Gulf carriers adding frequencies) which **increases structural capacity on NBO–AMS/NBO–EU**. ([swissport.com](https://www.swissport.com/en/news/press-release/2025/20250211_mediarelease_swissport-expands-flower-logistics-capacity-ahead-of-valentine-s-day-peak-demand?utm_source=openai)) - However, JKIA **infrastructure and cargo handling constraints** (referenced in national surveys) and 2026 **flood‑related disruptions on access roads** mean **effective usable capacity at peak can still feel tight**. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/eu-protocols-slash-kenyas-vegetable-exports-as-cut-flowers-face-tightened-scrutiny/?utm_source=openai)) - **Demand side 2026:** - Strong EU and UK demand for Kenyan flowers in 2025 plus **tariff‑driven pull‑forward into 1H 2026** sustain high load factors on Europe lanes. - Vegetables softening under EU protocols provides *some* demand relief, but not enough to offset flower and avocado growth. **Rate outlook framing:** - Expect **higher seasonal peaks** in air rates NBO–AMS (and NBO–LHR/other EU) around: - Jan–Mar 2026 (Valentine’s/Women’s Day), - Apr–May (Easter/Mother’s Day), - and potentially **Apr–Jun 2026** as UK buyers front‑load ahead of the tariff‑suspension expiry. - Shoulder seasons (e.g., late Q2 post‑Mother’s Day, and parts of Q3) are more likely to see **rate normalization**, especially if passenger belly capacity keeps recovering and freighter additions persist. You should assume a **continued premium of NBO–AMS flower rates vs general cargo** and vs some competing origins, but with **slightly improving structural capacity vs 2021–22 crisis levels.** ### 3.3 Capacity balance: shortages vs surpluses **Containers:** - **Mombasa‑linked reefer capacity is structurally tight**, due to: - Competing regional export flows (fish, meat, fruits). - Port congestion and inland equipment imbalances. ([portcast.io](https://www.portcast.io/port-congestion/mombasa?utm_source=openai)) - This supports a **chronic “tight but workable” situation** rather than outright shortage: exporters who book early and can flex sailing windows generally load; last‑minute spot demand can face **both rate spikes and roll‑overs** in 2026. **Air:** - On paper, **capacity has grown** (more freighters, better handling corridors), but: - 2024–25 evidence of cargo restrictions at JKIA and 2026 flood‑driven road disruptions mean that **peak‑week effective capacity remains constrained**. ([floriculture.co.ke](https://floriculture.co.ke/eu-protocols-slash-kenyas-vegetable-exports-as-cut-flowers-face-tightened-scrutiny/?utm_source=openai)) - Therefore, 2026 looks like: - **No structural surplus**; - **Pinch points in peak weeks** requiring long‑term block‑space or charter solutions for major exporters. ### 3.4 How to frame the problem/plan commercially For a 2026‑oriented Kenya–EU horticulture logistics strategy, you could frame key questions as: 1. **Port & sea‑freight risk management** - What’s the **tolerance for transit‑time variability** via Mombasa vs alternate routings (Dar, sea–air via Gulf)? - What is the **value at risk** for a multi‑day delay for each product line (flowers vs frozen veg vs avocado oil), and does that justify **premium services or modal shift**? 2. **Air capacity procurement** - For critical seasonal peaks (Valentine’s, Mother’s Day, key UK retail campaigns around Q2 2026), should you **lock in block‑space or charters** NBO–AMS/NBO–LHR now, given: - UK tariff suspension expiring June 30, 2026; - Uncertain impact on post‑July volumes and routing? 3. **Market / product mix** - Given **regulatory headwinds on vegetables**, is there a case to **tilt capacity allocation towards flowers and avocado** for EU/UK, and divert vulnerable veg lines to less restrictive markets (Middle East, regional) or into processed/frozen formats that can move by sea? 4. **Infrastructure & inland risk** - How do 2026 floods reshape your **inland lead‑time and contingency planning** (buffer days, cross‑docking near JKIA, dual‑route trucking from farms)? --- If you tell me whether you’re coming at this as a shipper/exporter, a carrier, or a 3PL, I can turn this into a more concrete 2026 playbook (capacity contracts, lane prioritization, and specific UK/EU regulatory watch‑points).