## Company Profile MER DENIZCILIK NAKLIYAT SAN. VE TIC. LTD. STI. — Turkish freight forwarding and shipping services company (website: https://www.mershipping.com/). The firm appears to provide international sea, air and land freight forwarding, customs clearance and port/terminal coordination (container and Ro‑Ro), likely supporting exporters from major Turkish export hubs (Istanbul/Ambarlı, Izmir, Mersin). Public profile/scale not disclosed on available evidence; category: freight_forwarder serving agri‑food and manufactured exporters in Turkey and regional transit flows. ## Pain Points 1) Client routing & cost shock: MER’s exporter customers (especially agri‑food SMEs) are facing immediate routing risk and higher insurance/bunker costs from the Red Sea / Strait of Hormuz disruptions in 2024–26. They need reliable alternative routings, guaranteed bookings and buyer certainty; MER may be losing or failing to win exporters who demand end‑to‑end risk management. 2) Multimodal and regulatory complexity: Road capacity limits, Schengen/transit permit constraints and rising rail/BTK/Middle‑Corridor interest mean exporters need multimodal planning, customs expertise and consolidation services. MER likely faces demand to expand multimodal offerings but may lack inbound leads for exporters seeking those capabilities. 3) Margin pressure and need for value‑added services: Elevated but volatile freight rates and competitive 3PL pricing are compressing margins. Exporters increasingly want packaging, cold‑chain, quality control and buyer matching — services that require sales/lead generation beyond traditional forwarding. Tridge Ark can supply qualified exporter clients and buyer demand so MER can sell higher‑margin, end‑to‑end packages. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === COMMODITY TRENDS === (Turkey agricultural exports – sunflower oil, hazelnuts, olive oil, fresh fruit – latest trend signals toward 2025/26) **1. Overall agri‑food export picture (context for 2026)**n- Türkiye’s agriculture/food/beverage exports reached **USD 27.79 bn in 2025**, up **0.35% YoY** vs 2024, indicating a broadly flat but still growing export base. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai)) - Within this, 2025 exports by major categories: - **Fresh fruits & vegetables:** **USD 3.87 bn** (largest single category) ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai)) - **Confectionery:** **USD 3.59 bn** - **Hard‑shelled fruits (incl. hazelnuts):** **USD 2.27 bn** - December 2025 agri‑food exports rose **13.6% YoY** to USD 3.01 bn, suggesting some late‑year momentum entering 2026. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai)) **2. Hazelnuts – volumes, values, and 2025/26 outlook** - Turkey remains the dominant global hazelnut supplier (c. **58% of world production in 2023**). ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazelnut?utm_source=openai)) - 2023/24 export season (Sep 2023–Aug 2024): revenue **USD 2.35 bn** from hazelnut exports. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiye-earns-2-35-billion-from-hazelnut-exports-2023-2024-season-48434/?utm_source=openai)) - 2024/25 season (Sep 1, 2024–Aug 31, 2025): - Exports: **309,064 tons** (kernel basis) - Export revenue: **USD 2.558 bn** - Around **124 destination countries**, with strong growth to China. ([inc.nutfruit.org](https://inc.nutfruit.org/hazelnut-crop-update-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) - However, macro picture is mixed: another assessment notes **2025 calendar‑year hazelnut exports down 26% by volume and 14% by value** vs 2024, a loss of **~USD 380 mn**, despite record TRY prices, indicating demand/price elasticity and possible stock overhang. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiye-earns-380-million-less-from-hazelnuts-as-exports-drop-26-3212529?utm_source=openai)) - A January 2026 market report (processor view) suggests **2024/25 exports ultimately expected at 210–220k tons shelled (≈420–440k tons in‑shell equivalent)** with domestic consumption ~100k tons in‑shell; weekly shipments had picked up vs earlier in the season. ([arslanturk.com.tr](https://www.arslanturk.com.tr/2026-january-hazelnut-market-report/?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for 2026:** - Hazelnuts remain a **USD 2.3–2.6 bn** pillar of Turkish ag exports, but 2025 saw **volume softness despite high prices**, indicating some demand resistance and potential buyer diversification. - For 2025/26, expect **stable-to-slightly lower volumes**, but continued high unit values driven by tight supply, quality differentials, and still‑strong EU demand. **3. Sunflower oil – export volumes, policy, and 2025/26 balance** USDA’s April 2026 Oilseeds & Products Update gives the most recent quantitative view for Turkey’s sunflowerseed oil balance: ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0050.pdf&utm_source=openai)) - **Sunflowerseed oil exports (marketing years, 1,000 MT):** - **2023/24:** 1,189 - **2024/25:** 950 (estimate – unchanged in the latest update) - **2025/26:** **725–900** (USDA official vs “New Post” projections; the report text suggests policymakers are working to keep exports nearer **900k MT** if import quotas and crush hold up). ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0050.pdf&utm_source=openai)) - Production: forecast around **784–805k MT** in 2025/26, up from 696k MT in 2023/24, but still constrained by drought episodes in key regions. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0050.pdf&utm_source=openai)) - Imports of crude sunflower oil remain high (**~1.25–1.55 million MT/year** in 2024/25–2025/26) as Turkey acts as a **refining and re‑export hub** for Black Sea-origin sunflower oil, especially from Ukraine and Russia. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0050.pdf&utm_source=openai)) **Trend signal:** - Medium‑term (through 2025/26), sunflower oil exports are **down from the 2023/24 peak by roughly 20–40% in volume**, but still substantial, with Turkey ranked **4th globally with ~5% of world sunflower oil exports around 2025**. ([ipad.fas.usda.gov](https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/Cropexplorer/Cropview/commodityView.aspx?cropid=2224000&rankby=Exports&sel_year=2025&utm_source=openai)) - Policy remains focused on **food inflation management**: temporary low‑duty quotas for sunflowerseed and crude sunflower oil imports (Jan–Apr 2025) to secure domestic supply; any renewed inflation could see further quota or export‑management measures that indirectly cap export growth. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0050.pdf&utm_source=openai)) **4. Olive oil – export restrictions and price dynamics into 2025/26** - Export policy: - MoT first banned most **bulk olive oil exports** from Aug 1, 2023; restrictions were then extended and modified into 2024 (phased re‑opening from June 1, 2024 with registration and packaging conditions). ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Turkey+Re-Introduces+Olive+Oil+and+Pulse+Export+Restrictions_Ankara_Turkey_TU2023-0025&utm_source=openai)) - Trade performance: - 2023/24 season exports: **EUR 763 mn** in value, but volumes already pressured by low production (“off” year) and the bulk‑export ban. - In the **current 2025/26 season**, exports have **fallen sharply again – down by roughly two‑thirds vs the 2022/23 peak**, according to the Aegean Olive and Olive Oil Exporters Association; average export price in the latest reported period is **EUR 5.68/kg**, down from **EUR 7.15/kg** a year earlier, signalling both weaker prices and restricted volumes. ([mundus-agri.de](https://www.mundus-agri.de/nachrichten/olivenoel-tuerkische-exporte-drittel-eingebrochen.n37163.html?utm_source=openai)) **Trend signal:** - Olive oil has shifted from a **fast‑growing export** to a **policy‑constrained and weather‑sensitive** commodity. - Through 2025/26, expect: - **Lower export volumes vs 2022/23**, - Continued focus on **added‑value packaged shipments**, - Volatility in farm‑gate and export prices tied to Mediterranean drought and policy decisions. **5. Fresh fruits & vegetables – export growth, key markets, 2025/26 trajectory** - National level: - **2024** fresh fruit & vegetable exports: **USD 3.4 bn**. ([raillynews.com](https://raillynews.com/2025/01/Turkey%27s-2024-Fresh-Fruit-and-Vegetable-Exports-Reached-34-Billion-Dollars/?utm_source=openai)) - **2025**: increased to **USD 3.7–3.87 bn**, up **~9% YoY** according to exporters’ associations and sector data. ([turkishagrinews.com](https://www.turkishagrinews.com/ferhat-guruz-the-mediterranean-region-continues-to-lead-in-fresh-fruit-and-vegetable-exports/?utm_source=openai)) - Product mix: - Top‑exported items in 2024 included **tangerines, tomatoes, lemons**; Russia, Germany, Romania were core markets. ([raillynews.com](https://raillynews.com/2025/01/Turkey%27s-2024-Fresh-Fruit-and-Vegetable-Exports-Reached-34-Billion-Dollars/?utm_source=openai)) - Regional trends: - Mediterranean Fresh Fruit & Vegetable Exporters’ Association highlights **unit value and “market quality”** increasingly important in 2025; emphasis on higher‑value cultivars and better post‑harvest handling, rather than just volume. ([turkishagrinews.com](https://www.turkishagrinews.com/ferhat-guruz-the-mediterranean-region-continues-to-lead-in-fresh-fruit-and-vegetable-exports/?utm_source=openai)) - Dedicated 2025 trade events (e.g., Fresh Market 2025) underscore Turkey’s share in **tomato exports (~15%) and lemon exports (~20%)** feeding into specific EU+CEE retail flows. ([fresh-market.info](https://www.fresh-market.info/news/fresh-market-2025/fresh-market-2025-news/15-of-turkeys-tomato-exports-and-20-of-lemon-exports-meet-at-fresh-market-2025?utm_source=openai)) - Russia remains a major outlet: **edible fruits & nuts exports to Russia were USD 858 mn in 2024**, with citrus alone accounting for **USD 373 mn**, underlining continued dependence on the Russian market despite broader geopolitical frictions. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/exports/russia/edible-fruits-nuts-peel-citrus-fruit-melons?utm_source=openai)) **Trend signal for 2026:** - Fresh fruit and vegetable exports are on a **moderate growth path (high single‑digit YoY)**, with: - Increasing focus on **EU, Russia, and CEE markets**, - Greater emphasis on **quality, branding, and cold‑chain reliability**, - Sensitivity to **Russia trade slowdown in 2025/26** (Turkey’s total exports to Russia down 21.5% in 2025 vs 2024), which could nudge more fruit flows toward EU/Gulf and require agile logistics. ([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/exports/russia/edible-fruits-nuts-peel-citrus-fruit-melons?utm_source=openai)) **Section sources:** ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai)) === MARKET EVENTS === (Turkey container export volumes, route shifts – Black Sea, Middle Corridor, Red Sea/Suez – into 2026) **1. Throughput & container volumes at Turkish ports** - Turkish seaports handled **553.3 million tons of cargo in 2025**, up **4.0% YoY**. - Exports: **142.8 million tons (+0.3% YoY)** - Transit cargo: **69.2 million tons (+0.1% YoY)** ([informare.it](https://www.informare.it/news/gennews/2026/20260142-porti-turchi-Stretto-Bosforo-traffico-Y-2025uk.asp?utm_source=openai)) - Containerized trade: Turkish ports processed **~13.5 million TEU in 2024**, making Turkey a mid‑tier but fast‑growing container hub for the East Med/Black Sea. ([turkpidya.com](https://turkpidya.com/ports-in-turkey-guide/?utm_source=openai)) - Italy example (proxy for EU flows): container traffic between Turkey and Italy reached a **record 678,715 TEU in 2025 (+9.8% YoY)**, including **589,522 TEU in direct import‑export (+7.3%)** and 89,193 TEU in transit (+29.7%). ([informare.it](https://www.informare.it/news/gennews/2026/20260142-porti-turchi-Stretto-Bosforo-traffico-Y-2025uk.asp?utm_source=openai)) **Implication:** - Containerized exports are **growing modestly in tonnage but more strongly in TEU to select EU partners**, reflecting a shift towards higher‑value, containerized goods (including agri‑food) and deepened integration with EU supply chains. **2. Modal split & road/sea to EU – constraints and shifts** - **67% of Türkiye’s exports to Europe move via Turkish road carriers**, of which **39% travel by Ro‑Ro sea plus road** and **61% by pure road**, according to a 2024‑25 IKV analysis. ([ikv.org.tr](https://www.ikv.org.tr/ikv.asp?id=9515&lng=en&ust_id=9285&utm_source=openai)) - Regulatory frictions: - Annual transit quotas (e.g., **10,000 truck transits** per year in Czechia) continue to **constrain overland capacity**. - Schengen visa bottlenecks and documentation burdens slow driver rotations and cross‑border transit, particularly since 2022. ([ikv.org.tr](https://www.ikv.org.tr/ikv.asp?id=9515&lng=en&ust_id=9285&utm_source=openai)) **Implication:** - Even with new sea/rail options, **road + Ro‑Ro remains the backbone** for Türkiye–EU trade; capacity and regulatory constraints here are a **structural risk** that supports demand for multimodal alternatives (rail, intermodal through Middle Corridor). **3. Black Sea / Middle Corridor & rail‑based alternatives** - The **Middle Corridor / Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route (TITR)** connects China–Central Asia–Caspian Sea–Azerbaijan–Georgia–Turkey–EU via a mix of rail, road and ferry. - Its traffic reached **~3.2 million tons in 2022**, still only **≤5%** of the capacity of the traditional Northern Route via Russia – but growing. ([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/realising-the-potential-of-the-middle-corridor_635ad854-en/full-report/component-5.html?utm_source=openai)) - The **Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) railway** is a key section bringing Caspian‑side cargo into Turkey; capacity is being upgraded with plans to raise total capacity to **17 million tons by 2034**. ([pl.railfreight.com](https://pl.railfreight.com/business/2025/09/16/przepustowosc-linii-baku-tbilisi-kars-wzrosnie-do-17-mln-ton-do-2034-r/?utm_source=openai)) - Rail operators highlight Turkey’s role: - Rail Cargo Group (ÖBB) calls Turkey a **hub of the Middle Corridor**, leveraging the **Marmaray Tunnel** as the only rail tunnel allowing trailer transport between Asia and Europe; network expansions from Nov 2025 strengthen connections into Central/Eastern Europe. ([railcargo.com](https://www.railcargo.com/en/news/2025/turkey-in-the-middle-corridor-hub-between-europe-and-asia?utm_source=openai)) - Several Turkish‑based forwarders now promote rail links via **Halkalı–Kapıkule** into the EU and via **BTK** into the Caucasus/Central Asia. ([crystalcargolimited.com](https://www.crystalcargolimited.com/services/rail-freight.html?utm_source=openai)) **Implication:** - While still small in absolute tonnage, **rail and multimodal flows through Turkey and the Black Sea–Caspian axis are structurally increasing**, particularly as shippers seek Suez/Red Sea risk diversification and alternative China–EU routes. **4. Red Sea / Suez & Hormuz disruptions – impact on routing in 2024–26** - Red Sea crisis (2024–25) led to large‑scale rerouting of Asia–Europe container services around the Cape of Good Hope, adding **+10–22 days** to transit times on affected lanes and pushing spot rates up to **USD 8,000–10,000/FEU** at peaks in 2024, with a new floor of **USD 3,000–5,000/FEU** during low‑demand periods. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/NoSpinMedia/comments/1q7rtb4/red_sea_shipping_resumes_trade_routes_reset/?utm_source=openai)) - By **early January 2026**, major carriers like **Maersk and CMA CGM** cautiously resumed Red Sea transits, but Suez Canal traffic remains **“sharply below” pre‑crisis levels**, keeping routing patterns unstable. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/NoSpinMedia/comments/1q7rtb4/red_sea_shipping_resumes_trade_routes_reset/?utm_source=openai)) - Separately, the **2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis** (closure since Feb 28, 2026) and resumption of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have again constrained energy and container flows through the Gulf and Suez, forcing additional rerouting and driving up fuel and insurance costs. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for Turkey’s export routing in 2026:** - For East‑ and South‑bound flows (MENA/Asia), shippers using Turkish ports face: - **Longer and more expensive routings** if avoiding Red Sea/ Hormuz (e.g., via Cape, via East Med plus overland segments). - Higher bunker and insurance surcharges baked into freight rates. - For **Turkey–Europe** lanes, the main effect is **indirect** – global capacity swings and rate volatility – but it strengthens the case for: - **Short‑sea intra‑Med services** anchored on Turkish ports, - **Rail and road corridors** via the Balkans, Central/Eastern Europe, and BTK/TITR, as more predictable alternatives for time‑sensitive cargo (including refrigerated agri‑food). ([railcargo.com](https://www.railcargo.com/en/news/2025/turkey-in-the-middle-corridor-hub-between-europe-and-asia?utm_source=openai)) **5. Port‑level positioning – Turkey as a regional container hub** - Turkey now counts **>180 port and coastal facilities**, with key export hubs (Izmit Gulf, Ambarlı/Istanbul, Mersin, Izmir/Alsancak, Tekirdağ, Iskenderun) handling most containerized throughput and acting as gateways for: - **Agricultural exports from Aegean/Mediterranean regions** (citrus, fresh veg, olive oil, processed foods) - Ro‑Ro and container flows into **Italy, Eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea**. ([turkpidya.com](https://turkpidya.com/ports-in-turkey-guide/?utm_source=openai)) **Section sources:** ([informare.it](https://www.informare.it/news/gennews/2026/20260142-porti-turchi-Stretto-Bosforo-traffico-Y-2025uk.asp?utm_source=openai)) === DEMAND SIGNALS === (Freight‑forwarding demand, container rates, capacity constraints, and appetite for end‑to-end support from Turkish exporters in 2026) **1. Macro: freight‑forwarding and logistics market in Turkey** - A recent Turkey freight & logistics market report (2025 data, outlook to 2031) notes: - **Manufacturing** held **45.4%** of Turkey’s freight & logistics market in 2025. - **Wholesale & retail trade** (including FMCG and food) is forecast to grow at **~5.2% CAGR** from 2026–2031, implying continued demand for logistics and forwarding services tied to consumer and agri‑food exports. ([mordorintelligence.com](https://www.mordorintelligence.com/market-analysis/logistics/turkey?utm_source=openai)) - IBISWorld’s Turkey “Freight Forwarding & Customs Agents” report (updated through 2025) points to **growth returning through 2025–29** after pandemic and inflation‑driven volatility, though the detailed figures sit behind a paywall. ([ibisworld.com](https://www.ibisworld.com/turkey/industry/freight-forwarding-customs-agents/200619/?utm_source=openai)) **2. Container rate and capacity environment entering 2026** - Global indicators (relevant for Turkish exporters buying space ex‑Turkey): - Freightos January 13, 2026 update shows **Asia–Europe rates around USD 3,000/FEU and Asia–Med around USD 4,850/FEU**, with GRIs aiming at **USD 4,000/FEU (Europe)** and **>USD 5,500/FEU (Med)** – levels comparable to previous peak seasons despite only moderate demand, mainly due to diversion‑induced capacity tightening. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1qby5r8/freightos_weekly_update_january_13_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - By late April 2026, Asia–Europe rates had eased **~3% week‑on‑week** but remained **elevated vs pre‑Red Sea norms**, with fuel and war‑risk insurance still inflating costs. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Implication for Turkey: even if Turkey‑origin spot rates differ from Asia main‑port levels, **baseline global price pressure remains high**, particularly on East–West lanes feeding Turkish import components and on Med export lanes. **3. European road capacity vs demand – knock‑on for Turkish exports** - Analyses of the **European road freight market (late 2025)** show: - Demand remains **volatile and uneven**, with some lanes tight and others slack. - Overall, **capacity is structurally insufficient to absorb sudden demand swings**, causing short‑term rate spikes and service unreliability. ([trasportoeuropa.it](https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/english/volatile-demand-and-limited-capacity-at-the-heart-of-european-road-haulage/?utm_source=openai)) - For Turkey specifically, the IKV brief documents that: - **Schengen visa delays, complex documentation, and limited transit permits** have become persistent obstacles for Turkish hauliers serving the EU, increasing lead times and operational uncertainty. ([ikv.org.tr](https://www.ikv.org.tr/ikv.asp?id=9515&lng=en&ust_id=9285&utm_source=openai)) **Demand signal:** - Turkish exporters – especially SME agri‑food shippers that rely on **truck + Ro‑Ro for EU deliveries** – face a structurally tight and administratively complex environment. - This encourages **outsourcing more of the logistics planning to forwarders and 3PLs** that can manage permits, trans‑loading, and multimodal options. **4. Explicit growth in end‑to‑end / LLP / 3PL offerings in Turkey** Multiple market moves point to rising demand for **integrated, end‑to‑end services** rather than pure port‑to‑port forwarding: - **DHL Supply Chain Türkiye (June 2025)**: - Publicly positioning its **Lead Logistics Partner (LLP)** services in Turkey as “end‑to‑end” – from **designing global supply chains to process management and control** – driven by customer demand for visibility, optimization and cost management amid volatility. ([dhl.com](https://www.dhl.com/tr-en/home/press/press-archive/2025/dhl-supply-chain-turkiye-adds-sustainable-value-to-supply-chains-with-llp-services.html?utm_source=openai)) - Local 3PLs/forwarders (e.g., DisMove, WarehouseTurkey, OCY Consulting’s client base) market: - **Integrated 3PL & contract logistics** – warehousing, inventory, value‑added services, customs, and multi‑country distribution (Europe, MENA, Africa, Americas) out of Turkey. ([dismove.com](https://dismove.com/3pl-contract-logistics-in-turkey/?utm_source=openai)) - Support for **foreign exporters and e‑commerce sellers** to handle Turkish company formation, compliance, and logistics – a sign that Turkey is increasingly used as a **regional fulfillment base**, not just an origin. ([warehouseturkey.com](https://warehouseturkey.com/?utm_source=openai)) - A 2025–26 wave of **digitization initiatives** across larger Turkish and regional 3PLs (SAP S/4HANA, SAP GTS, HS code automation) suggests that **big logistics players see continued demand for higher‑value services** (compliance, visibility, automation) rather than just low‑margin transport. ([ocydanismanlik.com.tr](https://www.ocydanismanlik.com.tr/en/solutions/industrial-solutions/logistics-transportation/?utm_source=openai)) **5. Direct qualitative signals from the freight‑forwarding community (2025–26)** - A Q4 2025 market report summarizing Turkey‑related trade notes a **“mixed outlook” with tightening capacity on some lanes** and shifting trade from sea to road for neighboring Eastern Europe – reinforcing the need for flexible, multimodal forwarders. ([noatumlogistics.com](https://www.noatumlogistics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/NL-market-report-Q4-2025-final-OK.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Industry discourse in early 2026 describes logistics as **“controlled chaos”**, with: - Geopolitical “roulette” in the Red Sea and now Hormuz, - Rate volatility and constant re‑routing, - A strong emphasis on **risk management, scenario planning, and contract flexibility** – all functions that sophisticated forwarders and integrated 3PLs provide. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/logistics/comments/1q77cjx/is-anyone-else-feeling-like-logistics-in_2026_is/?utm_source=openai)) - At the same time, a 2026 discussion on 3PLs notes: - “Lots of 3PLs having to price lower and lower to win business,” - Persistent **overcapacity in some fulfillment and warehousing niches**, - But continued structural need for 3PLs; the pressure is on **pricing and differentiation**, not on existential demand. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/logistics/comments/1rllmcg/3pls_whats_happening_now/?utm_source=openai)) **Net demand picture for forwarders & end‑to‑end support in Turkey (2026):** - **Positive structural demand drivers:** - Ongoing, if modest, growth in Turkey’s **agri‑food exports (fresh fruit/veg, nuts, oils)** plus broader manufacturing exports. ([turkiyetoday.com](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai)) - **Route volatility** (Red Sea, Hormuz, Russia/Ukraine war) pushing shippers to seek **multi‑route planning, risk hedging, and inventory optimization** – capabilities typically concentrated in larger forwarders and LLP‑type providers. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis?utm_source=openai)) - Regulatory and capacity constraints on **road‑based exports to the EU**, increasing the value of forwarders who can coordinate Ro‑Ro, rail, and permit management. ([ikv.org.tr](https://www.ikv.org.tr/ikv.asp?id=9515&lng=en&ust_id=9285&utm_source=openai)) - **Headwinds and constraints:** - Global and European freight markets remain **uneven**, with some overcapacity and margin compression – several 3PLs report needing to **discount aggressively**. ([trasportoeuropa.it](https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/english/volatile-demand-and-limited-capacity-at-the-heart-of-european-road-haulage/?utm_source=openai)) - After the 2024–25 rate spikes, parts of 2025 saw **soft spot demand** and tentative recovery, limiting the ability of forwarders to pass through higher costs. ([ti-insight.com](https://ti-insight.com/briefs/europes-road-freight-faces-uneven-traffic/?utm_source=openai)) **Practical takeaway for exporters:** - In 2026, Turkish agri exporters (sunflower oil, hazelnuts, olive oil, fresh fruit) face **elevated but volatile freight rates** and **non‑trivial routing and regulatory risks**. - These conditions **increase demand for:** - **End‑to‑end solutions** (origin consolidation, quality control, export documentation, multimodal transport, EU distribution), - **Strategic partnerships with tech‑enabled forwarders/3PLs** able to manage risk, redesign routings (rail/road/short‑sea), and provide cost visibility. - However, pricing pressure on 3PLs means **exporters can often negotiate competitive, service‑rich contracts** provided they can commit volumes and are open to flexible routings. **Section sources:** • Türkiye's agriculture exports edge up to $27.79 billion in 2025 - Türkiye Today https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai • Türkiye's agriculture exports edge up to $27.79 billion in 2025 - Türkiye Today https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai • Türkiye's agriculture exports edge up to $27.79 billion in 2025 - Türkiye Today https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiyes-agriculture-exports-edge-up-to-2779-billion-in-2025-3213935?utm_source=openai • Hazelnut https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazelnut?utm_source=openai • Türkiye earns $2.35 billion from hazelnut exports, 2023-2024 season - Türkiye Today https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiye-earns-2-35-billion-from-hazelnut-exports-2023-2024-season-48434/?utm_source=openai • Hazelnut Crop Update & Outlook - International Nut & Dried Fruit Council https://inc.nutfruit.org/hazelnut-crop-update-outlook/?utm_source=openai • Turkey – Hazelnuts: Export Volume and Revenue Dynamics https://cropgpt.ai/turkey-hazelnuts-export-volume-and-revenue-dynamics?utm_source=openai • Türkiye earns $380 million less from hazelnuts as exports drop 26% - Türkiye Today https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/turkiye-earns-380-million-less-from-hazelnuts-as-exports-drop-26-3212529?utm_source=openai • 2026 JANUARY HAZELNUT MARKET REPORT - Arslantürk | Turkish Hazelnut Processor and Exporter Company https://www.arslanturk.com.tr/2026-january-hazelnut-market-report/?utm_source=openai • Required Report: Required - Public Distribution https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0050.pdf&utm_source=openai • Required Report: Required - Public Distribution https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0050.pdf&utm_source=openai • Required Report: Required - Public Distribution https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0050.pdf&utm_source=openai • Required Report: Required - Public Distribution https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0050.pdf&utm_source=openai • Sunflowerseed Explorer https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/Cropexplorer/Cropview/commodityView.aspx?cropid=2224000&rankby=Exports&sel_year=2025&utm_source=openai • Required Report: Required - Public Distribution https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Ankara_Turkiye_TU2025-0050.pdf&utm_source=openai • Voluntary Report – Voluntary - Public Distribution https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Turkey+Re-Introduces+Olive+Oil+and+Pulse+Export+Restrictions_Ankara_Turkey_TU2023-0025&utm_source=openai • Olivenöl: Türkische Exporte um zwei Drittel eingebrochen - Mundus Agri https://www.mundus-agri.de/nachrichten/olivenoel-tuerkische-exporte-drittel-eingebrochen.n37163.html?utm_source=openai • Turkey’s 2024 Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Exports Reached $3,4 Billion – RayHaber https://raillynews.com/2025/01/Turkey%27s-2024-Fresh-Fruit-and-Vegetable-Exports-Reached-34-Billion-Dollars/?utm_source=openai • Ferhat Gürüz: The Mediterranean region continues to lead in fresh fruit and vegetable exports – THE GLOBAL WINDOW OF TURKISH FOOD AND AGRICULTURE https://www.turkishagrinews.com/ferhat-guruz-the-mediterranean-region-continues-to-lead-in-fresh-fruit-and-vegetable-exports/?utm_source=openai