## Company Profile PT TABITHA EXPRESS — Indonesia-based freight forwarder and IASA member (evidence: https://iasa.net/members/indonesia-pt-tabitha-express/). Primary activities: ocean and air forwarding, import/export documentation coordination, customs/gatepass handling and local coordination at Jakarta/Tanjung Priok gateways. Contact: Nelly Gan (Main IASA coordinator). Public scale not listed; profile and role indicate an operator serving Indonesian exporters/importers (likely SME to mid-market shippers) that needs reliable buyer/seller connections and operational orchestration at ports and airports. ## Pain Points 1) Compliance & export documentation friction after new 2026 rules: recent government moves requiring SOE involvement for palm oil/coal/minerals and Permendag No.5/2026 tighten export licensing — Tabitha's clients (especially commodity exporters) will face extra approval steps, allocation timing and payment/FOB scrutiny. They need a delivery channel that can manage buyer introductions, paperwork alignment and schedule certainty. 2) Port operational shocks at Tanjung Priok (gatepass restrictions) are creating measurable extra costs (IDR ~375bn industry estimate) and longer truck/dwell times. Clients need improved orchestration to avoid detention/demurrage and match tighter terminal gate windows. 3) Rapid trade reorientation toward China and intra-ASEAN in 2026 shifts demand and routing: exporters need access to trusted Chinese/ASEAN buyers, lane-specific capacity solutions (direct calls vs transshipment), and real-time lane intelligence to price and schedule shipments profitably amid volatile surcharges. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] – INDONESIA TRADE FLOWS & COMMODITY SHIFTS, EARLY 2026 === **Macro trade performance & partner shifts** - Indonesia’s exports in Q1 2026 increased versus Q1 2025, led by **non‑oil & gas manufacturing** (contributing **+3.15 percentage points** to export growth Jan–Mar 2026). Key drivers: **nickel, basic organic chemicals, palm oil, electronic components**.([rri.co.id](https://rri.co.id/en/business/2389860/indonesias-exports-rise-in-q1-2026-china-us-india-become-main-markets?utm_source=openai)) - In **March 2026**, exports fell **3.1% YoY** to **US$22.53 bn**, reversing a 1.0% rise in February. The drop was concentrated in non‑oil & gas exports to advanced markets: - **US:** –12.83% YoY - **EU:** –17.63% YoY - **India:** –1.28% YoY while **exports to China surged +16.22% YoY**, underscoring a clear re‑tilt toward China in early 2026.([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/exports-yoy/news/547250?utm_source=openai)) - By destination, early‑2026 data show **China, the US and India collectively absorbing 44.48%** of Indonesia’s exports, with China in the lead and China’s share rising at the margin.([rri.co.id](https://rri.co.id/en/business/2389860/indonesias-exports-rise-in-q1-2026-china-us-india-become-main-markets?utm_source=openai)) **China & ASEAN orientation** - A January 2026 working paper on Indonesia–China trade patterns finds **high commodity concentration** in Indonesia’s exports to China. For exports to China: - **Mineral fuels & oils:** 28.3% - **Iron & steel:** 22.5% - **Animal/vegetable fats & oils (incl. palm oil):** 11.2% - **Nickel products:** 9.1% - **Pulp & paper:** 4.9% ([iseas.edu.sg](https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ISEAS_EWP_2026-2_Pane.pdf?utm_source=openai)) → This reinforces that **China’s rising share in 2026 is being driven mainly by coal/energy, metals (iron/steel, nickel) and palm‑oil‑related products**, not higher‑value manufactures. - In ASEAN, Indonesia historically exports mainly to **Singapore and Malaysia** (both as markets and trans‑shipment hubs). Q1‑2025 data show **China, US, India, Japan, Singapore** as top 5 destinations, with Q1 2025 total exports at **US$66.6 bn (+7% YoY)**; these patterns broadly persist, but 2026 data point to **China’s outperformance vs. the US/EU** as growth markets.([tradeint.com](https://tradeint.com/insights/top-5-indonesia-export-by-country-in-q1-2025/?utm_source=openai)) **US demand and tariff risk backdrop** - A December‑2025 Indonesia macro outlook notes that **higher US tariffs on China are pulling some ASEAN exporters (including Indonesia) closer to the US market**, but also that US importers are cautious amid tariff uncertainty and industrial policy, tempering demand for Indonesian products that compete with Chinese goods.([bca.co.id](https://www.bca.co.id/-/media/Feature/Report/File/S8/Laporan-Riset-Ekonomi/2025/12/2026-indonesia-economic-outlook-inching-towards-higher-growth-19-december-2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - At the same time, 2026 freight‑flow analytics show **China’s exports to Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand are at a structurally higher baseline vs. pre‑2025**, even as Chinese exports to the US soften.([vizionapi.com](https://www.vizionapi.com/blog/who-is-chinas-new-buyer-2026-trade-data?utm_source=openai)) → Net effect for Indonesia: **stronger two‑way integration with China and ASEAN**, while **US demand for Indonesian exports is more volatile and currently weaker (double‑digit YoY decline in March 2026).**([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/exports-yoy/news/547250?utm_source=openai)) **Commodity‑specific signals** - **Coal & palm oil** remain critical: Indonesia is the **world’s largest exporter of thermal coal and palm oil**; new 2026 policy moves (see Dimension 3) tighten state control over these exports, which could affect trade volumes and routing.([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/9a2daec6efffe70032020b19bc54d618?utm_source=openai)) - The same policy context emphasizes **nickel and iron alloys** as strategic exports, in the context of intensifying competition between **China and the US** over critical minerals supply.([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/9a2daec6efffe70032020b19bc54d618?utm_source=openai)) **Structural takeaway for 2026 to date** - **Shift toward China:** Double‑digit growth (+16.2% YoY in March) into China while exports to the US and EU contract suggests that **China’s share of Indonesia’s export basket is rising in 2026**, particularly in **coal, metals and palm‑oil-based products**.([tradingeconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/exports-yoy/news/547250?utm_source=openai)) - **ASEAN still key but more as regional production & logistics ecosystem:** Trade with ASEAN is supported by **19 FTAs** (including ASEAN‑wide and bilateral with China, Australia, Japan, etc.), and Jakarta’s port expansion (see Dimension 2) is gradually allowing **more direct calls and less reliance on Singapore trans‑shipment**, re‑shaping regional flows.([tradeint.com](https://tradeint.com/insights/top-5-indonesia-export-by-country-in-q1-2025/?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Market Events)** ([rri.co.id](https://rri.co.id/en/business/2389860/indonesias-exports-rise-in-q1-2026-china-us-india-become-main-markets?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [DEMAND SIGNALS] – FREIGHT RATES, PORT CAPACITY & CONGESTION, 2026 === **Port of Tanjung Priok / Jakarta – capacity & utilization** - Tanjung Priok is Indonesia’s largest container port, historically handling **>50% of national container and trans‑shipment traffic**, with capacity around **8 million TEU** and throughput rising from **6.2M (2016) → 7.8M TEU (2018)**; 2024 throughput is cited at **~7.6M TEU**.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Tanjung_Priok?utm_source=openai)) - Post‑expansion (“New Priok”), the port is positioned to **capture 3–5% of Southeast Asia’s trans‑shipment share by 2030 (≈1.5–2.0M TEU shift)** as more ultra‑large vessels call directly, reducing reliance on Singapore. This offers shippers **4–6 days shorter transit times and US$150–200 per container lower logistics costs** when cargo bypasses Singapore trans‑shipment.([content.ballastmarkets.com](https://content.ballastmarkets.com/ports/tanjung-priok/?utm_source=openai)) **2026 yard occupancy & congestion signals** - Early‑2026 operational data show **moderate yard occupancy**, suggesting **no systemic congestion** but localized frictions: - **5 January 2026:** Average **Yard Occupancy Ratio (YOR)** – • JICT terminal: **49%** • TPK Koja: **43%** • NPCT‑1: **45%** with **12,070 long‑stay containers** in the port. Levels below ~65–70% typically indicate manageable flows without severe congestion.([logistiknews.id](https://www.logistiknews.id/2026/01/05/yor-priok-landai-ini-rincian-di-jict-tpk-koja-npct-1-per-5-jan-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - **21 May 2026:** **26 vessels** scheduled for loading/unloading (JICT: 4 ships, TPK Koja: 3, NPCT‑1: 5, NPCT‑2: 3, etc.). Reporting emphasizes active operations but does **not** flag critical congestion; YOR is described as relatively stable.([logistiknews.id](https://www.logistiknews.id/2026/05/21/26-kapal-b-m-di-priok-pada-kamis-21-mei-ini-rerata-yor-nya/?utm_source=openai)) - A **new gatepass restriction** at Tanjung Priok, however, has created **cost pressure for importers**: the national importers’ association (GINSI) estimates extra logistics costs of about **IDR 375 billion (≈US$23–25 million)** due to restricted gatepass access as of early May 2026. This is a clear **cost/efficiency shock** even if overall terminal YOR remains moderate.([beritajejakfakta.id](https://www.beritajejakfakta.id/kerugian-importir-pembatasan-gatepass-priok?utm_source=openai)) **Ocean freight rate environment into/out of Indonesia** - Global outlook: S&P Global’s 2026 container freight outlook projects **“softer rates” overall vs. the 2021–2022 peaks**, but with persistent **volatility from port congestion episodes, geopolitical routing changes, and environmental surcharges**.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - For **Asia outbound and intra‑Asia lanes** (key for Indonesia–China and Indonesia–ASEAN), the report expects **rate normalization but with upside risk** from: - Red Sea diversions (longer routes; higher bunker costs); - Potential Southeast Asian port bottlenecks as volumes re‑route through emerging hubs like Tanjung Priok; - Carriers’ capacity management (blank sailings).([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - While lane‑specific numerical spot rates ex‑Jakarta are proprietary in most sources, the typical pattern for early 2026 vs. late 2025 on main East‑West corridors is **single‑digit to low‑double‑digit % declines in spot rates**, offset by **new surcharges (fuel, congestion, environmental)**, leaving **effective shipper costs only modestly lower**.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **Container flow dynamics & demand** - Port analytics for Tanjung Priok show that in the **latest tracked week (late May 2026)**, **export flows led throughput**, indicating solid outbound demand. Historical performance underscores the port’s role as the primary gateway for **manufacturing exports and commodity shipments** from Greater Jakarta.([cogoport.com](https://www.cogoport.com/id-ID/knowledge-center/resources/port-info/jakarta-tanjung-priok-idjkt?utm_source=openai)) - Global flow data (container tracking) suggest that **Indonesia is increasingly part of China’s “New Buyers” cluster**, with **Chinese exports into Indonesia at durably higher volumes through early 2026** compared to pre‑2025 levels. This implies **sustained inbound container demand**, supporting **backhaul availability** for Indonesia’s exporters.([vizionapi.com](https://www.vizionapi.com/blog/who-is-chinas-new-buyer-2026-trade-data?utm_source=openai)) **Air freight (Jakarta)** - Recent web‑visible data provide qualitative rather than lane‑specific rate numbers, but 2026 air cargo commentary for Asia points to: - **Normalization of rates** from pandemic highs, but - **New spikes on specific corridors and commodities** (e.g., electronics, high‑value perishables) due to episodic belly‑capacity constraints and geopolitical disruptions.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - For Jakarta (CGK), this translates into **more competitive airfreight pricing vs. 2021–22, yet still elevated vs. pre‑COVID**, especially during **pre‑Ramadan and year‑end peaks** (see Timing section). **Key implications for 2026 demand signals** - **Seaborne export capacity at Tanjung Priok is ample** (sub‑50% YOR early 2026) with **growing direct‑call potential**; the main **risk driver is regulatory/operational friction** (gatepass rules, customs processes) rather than physical capacity.([logistiknews.id](https://www.logistiknews.id/2026/01/05/yor-priok-landai-ini-rincian-di-jict-tpk-koja-npct-1-per-5-jan-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - **Ocean freight rates are below peak levels but volatile**, with net shipper cost relief limited by surcharges and operational risks.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - For exporters, current conditions favor **securing capacity via contracts on China/ASEAN lanes**, while **US and EU lanes are more exposed to demand softness and tariff‑driven uncertainty** (see Dimension 1). **Sources (Demand Signals)** ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Tanjung_Priok?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [TIMING SIGNALS] – 2026 REGULATORY CHANGES, PHYTOSANITARY & SEASONAL PEAK WINDOWS === **A. 2026 export regulatory changes (trade & customs)** 1. **Tightening state control over key commodity exports (2026)** - In **May 2026**, Indonesia announced new regulations that **require state‑owned enterprises (SOEs) to handle exports of key commodities such as palm oil, coal and iron alloys**.([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/9a2daec6efffe70032020b19bc54d618?utm_source=openai)) - Objectives include: • Combatting **under‑invoicing and transfer pricing**; • Ensuring **export proceeds are properly repatriated**; • Increasing government revenue from resource exports.([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/9a2daec6efffe70032020b19bc54d618?utm_source=openai)) - For exporters/traders this implies in 2026: • Greater need to **coordinate with designated SOEs** (e.g., for licensing, allocation, and export‑documentation); • Potential **changes in contract structures, pricing formulas and margins**, especially for coal and palm oil; • Higher **compliance scrutiny** on FOB values and payment flows. 2. **Trade Ministry Regulation 5/2026 (Permendag No. 5/2026)** - A **March 2026** Minister of Trade regulation (Permendag No. 5 Tahun 2026) updates trading rules under the 2014 Trade Law and related government regulations. The official text cross‑references prior trade and customs laws and prior trade minister regulations (No. 23/2023 and 6/2025).([peraturan.bpk.go.id](https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/347106/permendag-no-5-tahun-2026?utm_source=openai)) - While the publicly visible summary is largely legal references, this regulation is part of the **ongoing consolidation and tightening of export‑import licensing**, including: • Adjustments to **approval authority** for strategic commodities; • Alignment with updated **risk‑based business licensing** under Indonesia’s 2021 omnibus implementing regulations.([peraturan.bpk.go.id](https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/347106/permendag-no-5-tahun-2026?utm_source=openai)) 3. **Customs & gatepass operational rules (Tanjung Priok, 2026)** - The **gatepass restriction policy at Tanjung Priok** in early 2026 is effectively a quasi‑regulatory change in port operations, reportedly increasing importers’ logistics costs by **IDR 375 billion** due to higher truck waiting times, storage charges, and administrative frictions.([beritajejakfakta.id](https://www.beritajejakfakta.id/kerugian-importir-pembatasan-gatepass-priok?utm_source=openai)) - Exporters using Priok should anticipate **more stringent gate scheduling and documentation checks**, especially when synchronizing **customs release (PEB) and terminal cut‑off times**. **B. Phytosanitary & SPS updates (2026 trend)** - No major new 2026 phytosanitary law is visible yet in English open‑web, but there is a **broader context of Indonesia strengthening SPS controls** in support of: - **Agri‑export reputation (palm oil, horticulture, fisheries)**; - Compliance with **import‑market requirements** (EU deforestation regulations, China AQSIQ/GACC rules, etc.). - In practical terms for 2026 shipments: - Expect **stricter documentation and inspection** for plant‑ and animal‑origin exports, particularly: • **Palm oil derivatives** (traceability, sustainability documentation); • **Rubber, cocoa, coffee, spices** (pest‑risk certificates, quality grading); • **Fisheries products** (IUU fishing documentation, health certificates). - Coordination with **Karantina Pertanian (Agricultural Quarantine Agency)** and **Karantina Ikan (Fish Quarantine)** remains critical for **timing clearances around vessel ETD/ETA**. *(Because English‑language sources summarizing specific 2026 SPS decrees are sparse at this point, the above should be treated as directional rather than a list of article numbers.)* **C. Seasonal timing windows in 2026** 1. **Religious calendar (Ramadan and Eid, 2026)** - For Indonesia in 2026, **Ramadan is expected roughly in late February–late March**, with **Eid al‑Fitr (Lebaran) likely in late March or very early April 2026** based on the Islamic lunar calendar projections (exact dates subject to moon sighting). - Typical **logistics and demand effects**: - **Import peak** of foodstuffs (sugar, wheat flour, beef, poultry, dairy, dates, processed foods) **4–8 weeks before Ramadan**; - **Domestic distribution surge** (Java and outer islands) and **urban consumption peak** during Ramadan and just before Eid; - **Port and trucking slowdowns** during the **Eid holiday week**, with many factories and logistics providers working reduced hours. - For exporters shipping to Indonesia: avoid **vessel arrivals in the 2–4 days around Eid** when port/terminal/workforce availability dips. 2. **Agricultural harvest cycles (key export commodities)** - **Palm oil:** - Production in Indonesia typically peaks during the **second half of the calendar year (Q3–Q4)** due to rainfall patterns and biological cycles, though monthly variation is moderate. - Export windows are influenced by **domestic biodiesel demand, export levies, and ad‑hoc policies**; with new 2026 export control rules, anticipate **more state‑managed pacing of shipments in H2 2026**, but still **strong export volumes in Q3–Q4**.([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/9a2daec6efffe70032020b19bc54d618?utm_source=openai)) - **Rice:** - Main harvest in **Java and Sumatra** usually falls **February–April**, with a secondary harvest **July–August**. - In years of good harvests, Indonesia may **reduce rice import volumes in Q2**, whereas poor harvests lead to **higher imports in H2**; 2026 outcomes will depend on mid‑year food security assessments. - **Other key cash crops:** - **Coffee:** main harvest **May–September** for many producing regions; export peaks tend to follow, with **Q3 shipments particularly active**. - **Cocoa:** many areas see significant harvest activity in **Q3–Q4**. - **Rubber:** tapped year‑round but production slows during **rainy periods**; exports often show **relative peaks in drier months (mid‑year)**. 3. **Port / logistics seasonality (Priok and other gateways)** - **Year‑end peak:** Elevated container volumes around **October–December** related to Christmas/New Year season in key markets plus domestic holiday demand. - **Post‑holiday normalization:** As shown by **5 January 2026** data, yard occupancy at Priok quickly normalized to **~43–49%**, indicating that **congestion risk is mostly transient and event‑driven**, not structural.([logistiknews.id](https://www.logistiknews.id/2026/01/05/yor-priok-landai-ini-rincian-di-jict-tpk-koja-npct-1-per-5-jan-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Practical timing guidance for 2026** - For **bulk and containerized agri exports from Indonesia**, the **most favorable logistics windows** (capacity vs. disruption risk) are typically: - **Mid‑April to June 2026** (post‑Eid, pre‑mid‑year harvest peaks); - **Late August to mid‑October 2026** (after mid‑year harvest ramp, before year‑end peak). - Exporters of **palm oil, coal and minerals** should factor in the **new 2026 SOE‑managed export regime**, which may introduce **additional lead time for securing allocations/permits** and **less flexibility for last‑minute schedule changes**.([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/9a2daec6efffe70032020b19bc54d618?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Timing Signals)** ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/9a2daec6efffe70032020b19bc54d618?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • Indonesia’s Exports Rise in Q1 2026, China-US-India Become Main Markets - RRI.co.id https://rri.co.id/en/business/2389860/indonesias-exports-rise-in-q1-2026-china-us-india-become-main-markets?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Exports Fall for 1st Time in 4 Months https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/exports-yoy/news/547250?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Exports Rise in Q1 2026, China-US-India Become Main Markets - RRI.co.id https://rri.co.id/en/business/2389860/indonesias-exports-rise-in-q1-2026-china-us-india-become-main-markets?utm_source=openai • No. 2026 - 2 https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ISEAS_EWP_2026-2_Pane.pdf?utm_source=openai • Top Indonesia Export by Country in Q1 2025 https://tradeint.com/insights/top-5-indonesia-export-by-country-in-q1-2025/?utm_source=openai • 2026 Indonesia https://www.bca.co.id/-/media/Feature/Report/File/S8/Laporan-Riset-Ekonomi/2025/12/2026-indonesia-economic-outlook-inching-towards-higher-growth-19-december-2025.pdf?utm_source=openai • Vizion’s Week 5 2026 data confirms a structural shift in global trade. While U.S. volumes soften, "New Buyers" in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are establishing a durable higher baseline for Chinese exports. | VIZION https://www.vizionapi.com/blog/who-is-chinas-new-buyer-2026-trade-data?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Exports Fall for 1st Time in 4 Months https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/exports-yoy/news/547250?utm_source=openai • Indonesia tightens state control over exports of vital commodities https://apnews.com/article/9a2daec6efffe70032020b19bc54d618?utm_source=openai • Indonesia tightens state control over exports of vital commodities https://apnews.com/article/9a2daec6efffe70032020b19bc54d618?utm_source=openai