## Company Profile Excel Freight Systems (Pvt) Ltd. — Pakistan-based freight forwarder (website: http://www.excelfrt.com). Listed on forwarders directories; CEO: Muhammad Saleem Butt. Offers typical forwarding services for Pakistani exporters: ocean and air freight, customs clearance, warehousing and local inland trucking; likely SME/small-mid sized operator serving textile, rice, fruit (mango) traders and general cargo exporters/importers. Exact scale not public, but customer base is expected to be export-oriented SMEs in Karachi/Port Qasim trade lanes. ## Pain Points 1) Time‑sensitive capacity risk for perishables (mangoes): delayed 2026 export window (start moved to June 1) + tighter reefer capacity, blank sailings and higher Gulf rates mean exporters need guaranteed buyer orders and prioritized refeer/space coordination to capture early‑season premiums. 2) Price and volume pressure for rice exporters and order volatility for textile clients: rice volumes down ~33% YoY and weaker price realization; textile orders volatile (sharp troughs late‑2025, rebound April 2026). Exporters need faster market access, price discovery and small‑lot/off‑season buyer matches — services Excel cannot easily build internally at scale. 3) Operational risk & working‑capital strain from schedule unreliability and detention/demurrage exposure: blank sailings, transshipment dwell at Gulf hubs, and port handling risks increase cash‑flow pressure and customer complaints — Excel needs partner solutions that deliver executed deals (buyers + logistics) rather than just leads. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] – PAKISTAN EXPORT FLOWS 2026 (TEXTILES, RICE, MANGOES) === **1.1 Textiles export flows & destinations (FY 2025‑26 / calendar 2026 YTD)** - Pakistan’s textile exports in **July–March FY2025‑26** totaled **US$13.545 bn**, down **0.5% YoY** from US$13.615 bn in the same period FY2024‑25. Monthly exports were **US$1.328 bn in March 2026**, **‑7.1% YoY** vs March 2025 but **+1.4% MoM** vs February 2026. ([textalks.com]) - A separate April 2026 release indicates **textile exports jumped 22.8% YoY in April 2026**, pointing to a recent rebound in orders heading into mid‑2026. ([dailytimes.com.pk]) - Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) provisional data show **overall merchandise exports July–March 2025‑26 down 7.1% YoY**, implying textiles are outperforming the broader export basket. ([pbs.gov.pk]) - Sector analysis for late 2025 notes that **textiles account for >50% of Pakistan’s goods exports**, with export values declining about **3% YoY over Aug–Nov 2025** as global demand softened and energy disruptions hit competitiveness. ([jsglobalonline.com]) **Destinations & corridor notes (textiles)** - Official PBS and sector reports continue to show **US, EU (esp. Germany, Spain, Italy), UK, and the Middle East (UAE, Saudi Arabia)** as the dominant markets; the State Bank of Pakistan’s February 2026 Monetary Policy Report highlights that Pakistan and some ASEAN suppliers have been **gaining market share in the US and other destinations** in low‑price segments, though “exporters’ inability to ship higher volumes abroad despite ample exportable surplus” is emphasized. ([sbp.org.pk]) - No major *new* dedicated textile export corridor in 2026 is evident yet; rather, **incremental capacity adjustments on existing Asia–Europe and Asia–US loops** and some **service rationalization via Gulf hubs** (Jebel Ali, Salalah) are shaping flows. **Implication:** In early/mid‑2026, Pakistan’s textile flows are **broadly flat to slightly weaker in volume YoY**, with some value support from currency depreciation and selective order recovery, but destination mix (US/EU/Middle East) remains structurally similar to prior years. --- **1.2 Rice export flows & destinations (2025‑26)** - A PBS‑based April 2026 synthesis shows: - **First 8 months FY2024‑25 (Jul–Feb)**: **4.17 MMT rice** exported, value **US$2.48 bn**. - **Non‑basmati**: 3.58 MMT (**85.9% of volume**), **basmati**: 0.588 MMT (**14.1%**). - Avg FOB: **US$1,020/MT basmati**, **US$526/MT non‑basmati**. - **Same period FY2025‑26**: exports down to **2.80 MMT (‑32.8% in volume)** and **US$1.49 bn in value**. ([pakistanrice.com]) - Another Feb 2026 analysis notes a **47% drop in rice export earnings over two years**, from **US$3.88 bn in FY2023‑24** to **<US$1.8 bn in H1 FY2025‑26**, with **non‑basmati volumes down by more than one‑third YoY (Jul–Dec)**. Exports to **Africa, EU, Middle East, and ASEAN** all declined. ([agriinsite.com]) **Destinations** - GCC (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq combined) remains the **largest cluster for Pakistan’s basmati exports, absorbing >60%** of basmati volumes. ([pakistanrice.com]) - Non‑basmati continues to move heavily into **Africa (Kenya, Mozambique, Madagascar, etc.), Middle East, and some Asian buyers**, but all saw contraction in FY2025‑26 H1. ([agriinsite.com]) **Corridor developments for rice** - The main corridors **Port Qasim/Karachi → Gulf (Jebel Ali, Dammam, Jeddah)** and **to East Africa and South/Southeast Asia** are unchanged structurally, but higher freight and Red Sea disruption have **raised costs and occasionally delayed shipments**. Exporters are **discounting to defend share** in existing markets amid strong competition from India and other Asian origins. --- **1.3 Mango export flows & regulatory events (2025–26)** - For the **2025 mango season**, exporters (via PFVEA) targeted **125,000 tons** of exports, with an expectation that **~70% (≈87,500 tons)** would go to **Middle Eastern countries**, potentially earning **~US$100 mn** if fully met. ([arabnews.com]) - Destination mix for fresh mangoes remains heavily skewed to **Gulf markets (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait)**, with **smaller but high‑value volumes to the EU and UK** where phytosanitary compliance and cold‑chain integrity are more demanding. ([arabnews.com]) **Key 2026 regulatory/market events** - **Export start delay in 2026:** - On **27 April 2026**, the government (Ministry of Commerce) **postponed the start of mango exports to 1 June 2026**, a shift from previous years when exports typically began in late May. ([propakistani.pk]) - The delay effectively **compresses the export window by ~1 week**, potentially tightening logistics and front‑loading shipments to Gulf markets once the season opens. **Implication:** For 2026, mango exports are entering with **regulatory delays and high valuation benchmarks**, with **Middle East remaining the core destination corridor** and EU/UK as niche but premium outlets. --- === 2. [COMMODITY TRENDS] – TEXTILES/COTTON & RICE PRICES 2026 === **2.1 Cotton and textile price / margin environment (2025‑26)** - USDA’s **“Cotton and Products Annual – Pakistan, April 2026”** indicates Pakistan remains structurally **short of high‑quality cotton**, relying on imports; textile exports were below prior‑year levels for most of Aug–Jan. ([apps.fas.usda.gov]) - Sector research highlights: over **Aug–Nov 2025**, Pakistan’s textile export value fell **~3% YoY**, despite some **relief from lower international cotton prices**, because of **order compression in the US/EU** and cost‑push from gas/electricity tariffs. ([jsglobalonline.com]) **2.2 Rice export prices & volumes – 2026 developments** - **FY2024‑25 (Jul–Feb)**: 4.17 MMT, **US$2.48 bn**. - **FY2025‑26 (Jul–Feb)**: 2.80 MMT (**‑32.8%**) and **US$1.49 bn**. Average FOB: basmati US$1,020/MT; non‑basmati US$526/MT. ([pakistanrice.com]) **Impact on exporters’ shipment volumes** - Non‑basmati exporters have seen **>33% YoY volume declines**, with **broader geographic demand softness**. Exporters with stronger basmati brands and **GCC supermarket/private‑label ties** are relatively better positioned. --- **2.3 Mango export price/valuation trends** - FBR Ruling 2/2025 set indicative customs export values: **US$800/MT** fresh mangoes, **US$1,000/MT** mango pulp, **US$1,500/MT** dried mango; used in 2026 season pricing benchmarks. ([profit.pakistantoday.com.pk]) - The **June 1 start** may force use of premium reefer space and raise delivered costs if demand/prices do not rise in tandem. ([propakistani.pk]) --- === 3. [DEMAND SIGNALS] – FREIGHT DEMAND, CONTAINERS & RATES TO/FROM PAKISTAN 2026 === **3.1 General freight demand & container availability to/from Pakistan (early 2026)** - Global container commentary for March–April 2026: **ocean freight rates rose US$400–600 per container since ~20 March 2026** despite soft volumes, as carriers blank sail and cut capacity to support prices; **Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz disruptions** increased fuel costs and forced rerouting. - Pakistan‑bound rates trended downward earlier but volatility and detention risk (MSC containers) were reported. Forwarders note sea freight remains cost‑effective for larger CBM but importers underestimate demurrage/detention risk at Pakistani ports. **Implication:** For **textiles and rice**, capacity exists but schedule reliability is weaker and detention/port storage risk is higher; for **mangoes/perishables**, reefer availability and on‑time delivery are critical. **3.2 China–Pakistan container freight 2026** - Indicative China → Pakistan 20' around **US$2,371** and 40' **US$3,777**; market volatile with short-term surges linked to geopolitical and carrier capacity decisions. ([moverdb.com]) **3.3 Pakistan–Europe container freight 2026** - Hapag‑Lloyd and MSC announced early‑2026 rate increases India/Pakistan → Europe; Freightos reported Asia–Europe rates >15% YoY and >50% above Oct 2025 lows. Blank sailings reduce frequency and reliability. **3.4 Pakistan–Middle East container freight 2026** - Persistent rate elevation on China–Middle East and feeder networks into Pakistan/Gulf due to Red Sea/Hormuz risks; carriers focus on Gulf hubs (Jebel Ali, Salalah) with rotation tweaks affecting feeder schedules. This impacts early mango season shipping and reefer capacity. **3.5 Carrier service changes, blank sailings & transshipment** - More blanked sailings on Asia–Europe, container rolling issues and detention risks; as Pakistan relies on transshipment via UAE/Oman, blank sailings translate into longer transit times and higher dwell costs. Overall demand signal: cargo demand out of Pakistan (textiles, rice) is not booming, yet freight rates are elevated due to supply‑side carrier actions and geopolitical risk. Logistics constraints and cost are primary shaping forces in 2026. Sources: Pakistan PBS, Pakistan Rice, FAS/USDA Pakistan cotton report (Apr 2026), industry press (DailyTimes, JS Global), Propakistani, ArabNews, carrier notices (Hapag‑Lloyd, MSC), Freightos/moverdb and maritime/freight practitioner reports (Mar–Apr 2026).