## Company Profile Röhlig Hong Kong Limited is the Hong Kong arm of Röhlig, an international freight forwarder and logistics group. The Hong Kong office handles air and sea freight forwarding, cross‑border (Mainland–HK) trucking and customs facilitation, consolidation and transshipment services, and solutions for e‑commerce/express parcel customers and high‑value electronics exporters using Hong Kong as a regional hub. As a global forwarder with local GBA and HK network access, the office bridges Greater Bay Area manufacturers, ASEAN supply nodes and long‑haul markets (Europe, North America). ## Pain Points 1) Multi‑origin complexity from China‑plus‑one: Rising sourcing from ASEAN + transshipment via multiple hubs increases booking fragmentation, rules‑of‑origin headaches, and the need to find and vet new suppliers quickly. Röhlig HK must capture these new flows or risk losing revenue to forwarders with stronger sourcing-intel/market-intake capabilities. 2) Capacity volatility & time‑sensitive e‑commerce flows: Lunar New Year 2026 front‑loading, selective lane tightness (Asia–US/Europe) and belly vs freighter imbalances create short windows where customers need rapid routing/price options. Röhlig HK needs a fast lead‑capture and advisory channel to convert time‑critical shipments. 3) Regulatory/timing pressures on SME exporters: EU €3 low‑value parcel fee (1 July 2026) and Mainland–HK Single Window rollouts require advisory work on routing, fulfilment and pricing for SMEs — a resource‑intensive task that forwarders need to scale without proportionate headcount increases. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] Hong Kong air and sea cargo volumes, China–Hong Kong cross‑border trends, and China→ASEAN manufacturing shift (2025–Q2 2026) === • **HKIA air cargo volumes and mix** - Hong Kong International Airport handled **5.07 million tonnes of cargo in 2025**, up about **2.7–3% YoY**, keeping HKG at or near the top of global airports by cargo throughput.([legco.gov.hk](https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr2026/english/panels/edev/papers/edev20260127cb2-68-2-e.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - December 2025 alone saw **~462,000 tonnes**, **+3.6% YoY**, indicating a strong finish to the year and signaling momentum into early 2026.([asiacargonews.com](https://www.asiacargonews.com/lander/news/detail?id=11690&utm_source=openai)) - HK government and shipper‑council commentary frame this as a “strong recovery” after pandemic‑era weakness, with air cargo seen as a pillar of Hong Kong’s positioning as a regional hub.([legco.gov.hk](https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr2026/english/panels/edev/papers/edev20260127cb2-68-2-e.pdf?utm_source=openai)) • **Hong Kong trade flows and China linkage** - January 2026 external merchandise statistics show **total exports by air at HK$197.1 bn**, up sharply from **HK$147.8 bn in January 2025** (approx **+33% YoY** for air‑borne exports). Major air‑export markets with notable increases include: - **Chinese Mainland:** HK$36.7 bn vs 20.3 bn (+**~81%** YoY) - **USA:** 32.3 bn vs 24.9 bn (+**~30%** YoY) - **Taiwan:** 20.0 bn vs 10.7 bn (+**~88%** YoY) - **UAE:** 9.7 bn vs 5.8 bn (+**~66%** YoY)([censtatd.gov.hk](https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/wbr/B1020005/B10200052026MM01/att/en/B10200052026MM01.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Government commentary for December 2025 emphasizes that **AI‑related electronic products and re‑exports** are key drivers, suggesting high‑value, time‑sensitive goods continue to support air cargo flows via Hong Kong.([info.gov.hk](https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202601/27/P2026012700489.htm?utm_source=openai)) • **China–Hong Kong cross‑border cargo facilitation** - Mainland China remains Hong Kong’s **largest partner in trade in goods**, with **frequent cross‑boundary trade** by land, sea and air.([news.gov.hk](https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2025/05/20250519/20250519_190426_563.html?utm_source=openai)) - A key structural change is the **Mainland–Hong Kong Customs Single Window** and related **“Intermodal Trans‑shipment Facilitation Scheme”**: - Phase covering **all cargo at land boundary control points** went live in 2025, allowing re‑use of road‑cargo data by both Mainland and Hong Kong customs, cutting paperwork and enabling faster cross‑border trucking.([news.gov.hk](https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2025/05/20250519/20250519_190426_563.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Phase 3 services roll out in batches from 2026 onward**, broadening data coverage and deepening integration – this should reduce friction for China–HK truck‑air shipments and make Hong Kong more competitive as a consolidation hub for South China exports.([news.gov.hk](https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2025/05/20250519/20250519_190426_563.html?utm_source=openai)) - A 2025 LegCo reply on cross‑boundary online shopping shows **Mainland→Hong Kong land cargo volumes rising from 2020–2024**, with regulators explicitly highlighting rising **cross‑border e‑commerce flows** and the need to coordinate with platforms on compliance. This underscores a structural pipeline of small‑parcel traffic from the Mainland via Hong Kong’s border points.([cedb.gov.hk](https://www.cedb.gov.hk/en/legco-business/questions/2025/pr25092025a.html?utm_source=openai)) • **Cross‑border e‑commerce and Hong Kong’s role** - A March 2026 industry piece notes that **“cross‑border e‑commerce from Hong Kong surged 25% in 2025”**, attributing the growth to Hong Kong’s proximity to Mainland factories and its role in regional logistics and fulfilment.([freightamigo.com](https://www.freightamigo.com/en/blog/logistics-news/empowering-cross-border-trade-freightamigo-in-hong-kongs-growth/?utm_source=openai)) - Hong Kong shippers’ and global trade commentary emphasize that **e‑commerce was a core driver of the 3.4% growth in global air cargo demand in 2025**, with Asia (including Hong Kong) particularly exposed to this segment.([hkshippers.org.hk](https://www.hkshippers.org.hk/page/what-new/post/6712?utm_source=openai)) • **Manufacturing shift from China to ASEAN and implications for Hong Kong** - Multiple analyses in late 2025–early 2026 describe an ongoing **“China‑plus‑one”** relocation: - Chinese and multinational manufacturers have shifted or duplicated production to **Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and India** to mitigate tariffs and geopolitical risk.([cxtms.com](https://cxtms.com/blog/china-reverse-migration-manufacturing-supply-chain-reshoring-2026?utm_source=openai)) - S&P Global notes **rising Chinese investment in ASEAN manufacturing** and a sharp rise in **transshipment trade via ASEAN** in H1 2025, as some China‑origin goods are re‑routed via ASEAN for final export to the US/EU.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/10/what-does-transshipment-trade-mean-for-china-asean-trade-and-us-tariffs?utm_source=openai)) - A logistics‑sector article (2025) specifically highlights that: - Chinese manufacturers increasingly route exports via or relocate production to ASEAN partners such as **Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia**, and that **logistics networks and freight forwarders are struggling to keep up** as flows become more fragmented.([laxfreight.com](https://laxfreight.com/blog/china-plus-one-shift-freight-forwarders-2025/?utm_source=openai)) - Implications for **Hong Kong freight forwarders** (inferred from above plus HK trade data): - **Origin diversification:** more bookings originate from ASEAN airports/ports, but **Hong Kong retains a role as a transshipment and consolidation hub**, particularly for: - Multi‑leg routings **ASEAN → South China/HK → Europe/US** where HK offers frequency and network depth. - High‑value verticals (electronics, components) where supply chains still cross the **Greater Bay Area (GBA)**. - **Margin pressure and complexity:** forwarders must manage **multi‑origin networks** (PRC + ASEAN) and handle more complex rules of origin, especially as US/EU tighten scrutiny of Chinese content routed via ASEAN.([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/10/what-does-transshipment-trade-mean-for-china-asean-trade-and-us-tariffs?utm_source=openai)) - **Opportunity:** Hong Kong’s policy push (Single Window; Air Transshipment Cargo Exemption extensions, etc.) aims to keep the city competitive as a **GBA+ASEAN consolidation node**, supporting value‑added services (bonded warehousing, consolidation, e‑commerce fulfilment).([cilt.org.hk](https://www.cilt.org.hk/en-us/publication/file.aspx?id=383&utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Market Events):** ([asiacargonews.com](https://www.asiacargonews.com/lander/news/detail?id=11690&utm_source=openai)) === 2. [DEMAND SIGNALS] Airfreight rates/capacity (Asia–Europe, Asia–US), belly vs freighter, HK e‑commerce flows, origin diversification (Q1–Q2 2026) === • **Global air cargo demand and rates backdrop (early 2026)** - IATA reports that **global air cargo demand (CTKs) grew 5.6% YoY in January 2026**, with capacity up **3.6%**, tightening load factors. Asia–Pacific carriers were a key growth engine.([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-03-02-01/?utm_source=openai)) - A follow‑up release shows **demand up 11.2% YoY in February 2026**, as global trade momentum improved and export order PMIs moved back above 50. Asia–Pacific airlines posted **+13.6% YoY demand** in February, with **Asia–Europe and Asia–North America lanes** among the primary contributors.([aviationtoday.in](https://aviationtoday.in/iata/iata-air-cargo-demand-surges-11-2-in-february-as-global-trade-momentum-strengthens/?utm_source=openai)) - Xeneta/industry data cited by FIDI and AJOT show **global volumes +7% YoY in January 2026**, partly driven by **front‑loading ahead of Lunar New Year**; rate declines that had persisted through late 2025 eased in January.([fidifocus.org](https://www.fidifocus.org/on-the-wire/air-cargo-industry-faces-mounting-strains-despite-growth/?utm_source=openai)) • **Asia–Europe and Asia–US rate levels and trends** - The **Drewry Airfreight Price Index** (April 2026 update) notes: - The composite index is **~18% below December 2024 levels**, with rates down across most lanes. - A Middle East disruption is pushing up **South and Southeast Asia → Europe** rates, as roughly **30% of Asia–Europe air cargo** normally transits via Middle Eastern hubs.([mtsinsights.com](https://www.mtsinsights.com/events/4726/?utm_source=openai)) - The **BAI Index (Baltic Air Freight Index) February 2026** commentary describes: - Continued **“growth normalisation”** after a strong 2025, with **rate pressure** on some lanes but **resilience** where capacity is constrained. - Notably tight conditions on parts of the **transatlantic** market, but broadly indicative of a market where **volume is recovering faster than yields**.([balticexchange.com](https://www.balticexchange.com/en/news-and-events/news/guest-column/2026/Tariffs-and-e-commerce-squeeze-global-air-cargo.html?utm_source=openai)) - Multiple February 2026 freight‑market updates emphasize **Asia→US air demand tightening ahead of Lunar New Year**, with **short‑term rate upticks** on those lanes.([jmrodgers.com](https://www.jmrodgers.com/freight-market-update-february-2026/?utm_source=openai)) • **Capacity and belly vs freighter trends (with Hong Kong context)** - IATA and Transport Research Advisory data for January 2026 show **capacity growth across most major lanes**, with **Far East–North America the main exception** where capacity was slightly negative (**-0.7% YoY**) while: - **Europe–Far East capacity +5.9% YoY** - **Europe–North America +3.1% YoY** - **Intra‑Far East +14.4% YoY** (reflecting strong regional passenger/freighter deployments and belly recovery).([istat.org](https://www.istat.org/Portals/0/ISTAT%20Online/Session%20PDFs/2026_03_17%20Freighter%20Aircraft%20Market%20Outlook%20per%20Transport%20Research%20Advisory%20-PPT.pdf?ver=PDNQJFSji7Tahm9PC-BTIg%3D%3D&utm_source=openai)) - Passenger recovery at HKIA is significant for **belly capacity**: - HKIA handled **61 million passengers in 2025**, **+15% YoY**, narrowing the gap to 2019. As more long‑haul passenger flights resume, **bellyhold capacity on key cargo routes (Europe, North America)** is expanding.([air-journal.fr](https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-01-19-hong-kong-61-millions-de-passagers-le-hub-asiatique-se-rapproche-de-2019-5272328.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Cathay Pacific**: - 2025 interim results show **HK$11.1 bn cargo revenue in H1 2025 (+2.2% YoY)**, with cargo yield down **3.4%** and load factor at **58.6%** – consistent with a market where capacity has returned faster than yields.([cathaypacific.com](https://www.cathaypacific.com/content/dam/cx/about-us/investor-relations/interim-annual-reports/en/2025_cx_interim_report_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - In April 2026 Cathay announced the restart of **Seattle–Hong Kong** passenger services (five weekly), adding bellyhold lift into North America alongside **about 40 weekly freighter rotations to North America at peak 2026 summer**. This evidences a **hybrid belly+freighter strategy** on Asia–US lanes.([stattimes.com](https://www.stattimes.com/amp/air-cargo/cathay-pacific-restarts-seattle-flights-expands-cargo-capacity-1358598?utm_source=openai)) - In May 2026 Cathay Cargo launched a **weekly all‑cargo Hong Kong–Bangkok service**, adding dedicated freighter capacity to complement existing belly services and explicitly targeting **Thai exporters and freight forwarders**.([news.cathaypacific.com](https://news.cathaypacific.com/cathay-cargo-launches-weekly-freighter-service-to-bangkok-2715zq?utm_source=openai)) - Regionally, Japan Airlines and others are adopting **asset‑light, hybrid networks** combining belly capacity with partner freighters and rail, indicating that **growth in effective capacity is increasingly via network optimization and partnerships rather than large owned‑freighter fleets**.([theloadstar.com](https://theloadstar.com/jal-builds-hybrid-cargo-network-with-rail-air-push-and-asset-light-freighter-strategy/?utm_source=openai)) • **Cross‑border e‑commerce flows via Hong Kong** - A March 2026 logistics‑tech report notes that **e‑commerce airfreight accounted for ~18% of global air cargo volumes in 2025**, up 1–2 percentage points YoY; when e‑commerce is excluded, global air‑cargo growth drops from **6.7% to 4.6%**, underscoring the segment’s importance.([cargosolutionsnetwork.com](https://cargosolutionsnetwork.com/insights/e-commerce-airfreight-drives-18-of-global-cargo-in-2025?utm_source=openai)) - The Hong Kong Shippers’ Council highlights that **e‑commerce drove a 3.4% increase in global air cargo volumes in 2025**, and that Asia hubs like Hong Kong are disproportionately exposed due to express‑parcel and B2C flows.([hkshippers.org.hk](https://www.hkshippers.org.hk/page/what-new/post/6712?utm_source=openai)) - A March 2026 Hong Kong‑focused article states **cross‑border e‑commerce from Hong Kong surged 25% in 2025**, driven by proximity to Mainland factories and use of Hong Kong as a **gateway for regional and global fulfilment**.([freightamigo.com](https://www.freightamigo.com/en/blog/logistics-news/empowering-cross-border-trade-freightamigo-in-hongs-growth/?utm_source=openai)) - However, Xeneta‑tracked data show **China’s e‑commerce exports by air fell YoY in January 2026 for the first time since 2022**, even as global air volumes rose 7%, suggesting **some cooling or redistributing of China origin e‑commerce flows** – potentially benefitting **alternative origins (ASEAN)** and **alternate gateways**, while still leaving Hong Kong with large absolute volumes.([ajot.com](https://www.ajot.com/news/early-lunar-new-year-flatters-to-deceive-as-global-air-cargo-volumes-rise-7-in-january-but-chinas-e-commerce-exports-down-first-time-since-2022?utm_source=openai)) • **Buyer demand for origin diversification (“China‑plus‑one”)** - A 2025–26 freight‑forwarder guide on **China‑plus‑one** notes: - Significant **shift of bookings to Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and India**, and that freight forwarders must redesign networks to handle multi‑origin sourcing.([laxfreight.com](https://laxfreight.com/blog/china-plus-one-shift-freight-forwarders-2025/?utm_source=openai)) - The **Q2 2026 DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI)** provides quantitative evidence from HK‑based traders: - Overall DTI rose **4.5 points to 37.3**, highest since Q4 2024, indicating improved sentiment.([hkpc.org](https://www.hkpc.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/dhl2026q2_report_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - The **Americas sub‑index strengthened sharply**, while **Europe dipped 3 points to 35**, reflecting differing regional demand.([asiacargonews.com](https://asiacargonews.com/en/news/detail?id=12011&utm_source=openai)) - Over **one‑third of respondents exporting to Europe and/or the Americas identified Southeast Asia as a key alternative growth market**, explicitly linking **origin diversification and new demand to ASEAN**.([linkedin.com](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dhl-express-hong-kong_globaltrade-dti-airtradeindex-activity-7450483133029953536-1zFf?utm_source=openai)) - In anticipation of the **EU’s €3 customs fee on low‑value goods from 1 July 2026**, **>90% of sellers exporting to Europe** plan to pass on or share the extra cost with consumers, rather than withdrawing from the channel – suggesting **continued e‑commerce demand but with cost sensitivity and potential modal or routing shifts**.([hkpc.org](https://www.hkpc.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/dhl2026q2_report_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Demand Signals):** ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-03-02-01/?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [TIMING SIGNALS] Lunar New Year 2026 disruption & peak, Q2–Q4 2026 forecasts, airline schedule changes affecting Hong Kong === • **2026 Lunar New Year calendar and disruption window** - Lunar New Year 2026 falls on **Tuesday, 17 February 2026** (China/Hong Kong).([craneww.com](https://www.craneww.com/knowledge-center/latest-news-and-info/lunar-new-year-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Multiple market updates note: - **Front‑loading:** January 2026 saw **+5.6% to +7% YoY global air‑cargo demand**, with analysts explicitly attributing a large part of the surge to **shipments advanced ahead of the 17 February holiday**, which concentrated export volumes into late January / early February.([trasportoeuropa.it](https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/english/air-cargo-moderate-growth-in-january-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - A logistics‑market update (JM Rodgers, Feb 2026) reports **Asia→US air‑cargo demand increased ahead of factory closures**, tightening short‑term capacity and pushing up spot rates.([jmrodgers.com](https://www.jmrodgers.com/freight-market-update-february-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - A February 2026 freight‑market commentary describes **heightened volatility**, with **Lunar New Year and ocean overcapacity** jointly driving spikes in air demand and rate swings.([freightnet.com](https://www.freightnet.com/news/article/119.htm?utm_source=openai)) - A dedicated LNY 2026 planning guide characterizes the disruption as: - A **“concentrated disruption window from late January into late February”**, with: - **Air freight constraints**: reduced allocations, higher rates, longer uplift times, particularly on **electronics and e‑commerce lanes**. - Carriers using **blank sailings and schedule adjustments** in ocean freight, which spill over into **mode shift to air** for urgent cargo. - Specific guidance to **book time‑critical uplift early** and build in longer lead‑times for Asia (incl. Southeast Asia) around the holiday.([craneww.com](https://www.craneww.com/knowledge-center/latest-news-and-info/lunar-new-year-2026/?utm_source=openai)) • **Q2–Q4 2026 cargo capacity and market outlook** - IATA’s early‑2026 outlook (summarized in January 2026 logistics reports and February 2026 analyses) points to: - **Cargo demand growth moderating but remaining positive** through 2026, underpinned by **e‑commerce and high‑value goods**, with airlines expected to carry **>71 million tonnes of cargo in 2026**.([aviationtoday.in](https://aviationtoday.in/iata/iata-air-cargo-demand-surges-11-2-in-february-as-global-trade-momentum-strengthens/?utm_source=openai)) - **Yield pressure** as belly capacity continues to recover and some supply chains revert from air to ocean when ocean reliability improves. - Transport Research Advisory’s March 2026 freighter‑market outlook using IATA data indicates: - **Capacity expansion continuing in most lanes** year‑to‑date 2026, particularly **intra‑Far East and Europe–Far East**, aided by passenger recovery. - Far East–North America capacity slightly negative in January 2026 (‑0.7% YoY), but expected to **improve as more North America routes are restored in S/S 2026 schedules**.([istat.org](https://www.istat.org/Portals/0/ISTAT%20Online/Session%20PDFs/2026_03_17%20Freighter%20Aircraft%20Market%20Outlook%20per%20Transport%20Research%20Advisory%20-PPT.pdf?ver=PDNQJFSji7Tahm9PC-BTIg%3D%3D&utm_source=openai)) - Regional freight‑forwarder and carrier commentaries suggest for **Q2–Q4 2026**: - **Q2 2026:** “Normalisation” phase post‑LNY, with ongoing **rate volatility** due to geopolitical risks (tariffs, Middle East routing disruptions) and selective capacity tightness on some Asia–Europe corridors.([mtsinsights.com](https://www.mtsinsights.com/events/4726/?utm_source=openai)) - **H2 2026 peak season (Q3–Q4):** - Expectation of a **traditional autumn peak**, driven by back‑to‑school, Singles’ Day, Black Friday/Christmas e‑commerce, with demand growth rates likely **in mid‑single digits**, but stronger on **Asia–North America and Asia–Europe e‑commerce lanes**. (Inference based on IATA 2026 full‑year demand forecast and structural e‑commerce share.)([aviationtoday.in](https://aviationtoday.in/iata/iata-air-cargo-demand-surges-11-2-in-february-as-global-trade-momentum-strengthens/?utm_source=openai)) • **Specific airline schedule and route changes affecting Hong Kong in 2026** - **Cathay Pacific / Cathay Cargo (Hong Kong hub):** - **Seattle–Hong Kong passenger service restarted** in 2026 (five weekly flights), restoring belly capacity into the US Pacific Northwest and interlining into North America. The carrier notes this will **complement nearly 40 weekly freighter rotations to North America at the peak of summer 2026**, reinforcing Hong Kong’s role as a trans‑Pacific hub.([stattimes.com](https://www.stattimes.com/amp/air-cargo/cathay-pacific-restarts-seattle-flights-expands-cargo-capacity-1358598?utm_source=openai)) - **New weekly Hong Kong–Bangkok freighter service**, launched **6 May 2026**, adds dedicated uplift for Thai exporters, on top of passenger‑belly capacity, providing more reliable **intra‑Asia feed into HKIA** for long‑haul connections.([news.cathaypacific.com](https://news.cathaypacific.com/cathay-cargo-launches-weekly-freighter-service-to-bangkok-2715zq?utm_source=openai)) - **Network‑wide belly recovery influencing Hong Kong:** - HKIA’s passenger recovery to **61 million passengers in 2025 (+15% YoY)** implies that **airline passenger schedules into/out of Hong Kong have substantially normalised** compared with 2022–23, rebuilding belly capacity on both regional and long‑haul routes into 2026.([air-journal.fr](https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-01-19-hong-kong-61-millions-de-passagers-le-hub-asiatique-se-rapproche-de-2019-5272328.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Regulatory and facilitation timing:** - The **Mainland–Hong Kong Single Window Phase 3** is scheduled to roll out **from 2026 onward**, progressively covering more document types and flows; for timing, this suggests **improving cross‑border truck‑air efficiency through 2026–27**, which is relevant to forwarders planning consolidation schedules and cut‑off times.([news.gov.hk](https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2025/05/20250519/20250519_190426_563.html?utm_source=openai)) - For **e‑commerce shipments to Europe**, the **€3 EU customs fee on low‑value parcels takes effect 1 July 2026**. Hong Kong DTI survey data indicate shippers are planning to **adjust pricing rather than volumes**, but this date is a **clear inflection point** that may cause some tactical front‑loading of shipments in late Q2 2026 and a modest softening of B2C flows post‑implementation.([hkpc.org](https://www.hkpc.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/dhl2026q2_report_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) • **Operational takeaways for timing around HK in 2026** - **LNY 2026:** Peak air‑cargo squeeze for Hong Kong and surrounding gateways runs **roughly late January–late February 2026**, with strongest uplift pressure in the **2–3 weeks before 17 February**. Plan for: - Earlier cargo readiness dates - Premiums on Asia–US and Asia–Europe uplift - Increased use of alternate origins (ASEAN) and secondary hubs when HK or South China capacity is tight.([craneww.com](https://www.craneww.com/knowledge-center/latest-news-and-info/lunar-new-year-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - **Q2 2026:** Transition phase with **normalised but still elevated demand**, continued **capacity additions**, and a focus on adjusting to regulatory changes (EU low‑value fee). DTI sentiment improvement to **37.3** underscores a more positive environment for Hong Kong traders.([hkpc.org](https://www.hkpc.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/dhl2026q2_report_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Q3–Q4 2026:** Expect a **conventional peak season overlayed on a structurally higher e‑commerce base**, with Hong Kong benefiting from: - Increased **ASEAN–HK–long‑haul** flows (e.g., new BKK freighter) - Restored North America belly capacity (e.g., Seattle) plus heavy freighter programs.([stattimes.com](https://www.stattimes.com/amp/air-cargo/cathay-pacific-restarts-seattle-flights-expands-cargo-capacity-1358598?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Timing Signals):** ([craneww.com](https://www.craneww.com/knowledge-center/latest-news-and-info/lunar-new-year-2026/?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • LC Paper No. CB(2)68/2026(02) https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr2026/english/panels/edev/papers/edev20260127cb2-68-2-e.pdf?utm_source=openai • Hong Kong airport says cargo throughput surpassed 5M tonnes in 2025 - Asia Cargo News https://www.asiacargonews.com/lander/news/detail?id=11690&utm_source=openai • LC Paper No. CB(2)68/2026(02) https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr2026/english/panels/edev/papers/edev20260127cb2-68-2-e.pdf?utm_source=openai • | Hong Kong External Merchandise Trade | --- | --- https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/wbr/B1020005/B10200052026MM01/att/en/B10200052026MM01.pdf?utm_source=openai • External merchandise trade statistics for December 2025 https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202601/27/P2026012700489.htm?utm_source=openai • news.gov.hk - Trade facilitation pact signed https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2025/05/20250519/20250519_190426_563.html?utm_source=openai • news.gov.hk - Trade facilitation pact signed https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2025/05/20250519/20250519_190426_563.html?utm_source=openai • news.gov.hk - Trade facilitation pact signed https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2025/05/20250519/20250519_190426_563.html?utm_source=openai • LCQ20: Regulating cross-boundary online shopping - Commerce and Economic Development Bureau https://www.cedb.gov.hk/en/legco-business/questions/2025/pr25092025a.html?utm_source=openai • Empowering Cross-Border Trade: FreightAmigo in Hong Kong’s Growth | FreightAmigo https://www.freightamigo.com/en/blog/logistics-news/empowering-cross-border-trade-freightamigo-in-hongs-growth/?utm_source=openai • E-commerce drives global air cargo demand up 3.4% in 2025 - The Hong Kong Shippers' Council https://www.hkshippers.org.hk/page/what-new/post/6712?utm_source=openai • China's Reverse Migration: Why Manufacturers Are Moving Production Back Despite Tariffs | CXTMS https://cxtms.com/blog/china-reverse-migration-manufacturing-supply-chain-reshoring-2026?utm_source=openai • Transshipment: Outlook and Implications for ASEAN | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/10/what-does-transshipment-trade-mean-for-china-asean-trade-and-us-tariffs?utm_source=openai • China-Plus-One Strategy: Freight Forwarder Guide | LAX Freight https://laxfreight.com/blog/china-plus-one-shift-freight-forwarders-2025/?utm_source=openai • Transshipment: Outlook and Implications for ASEAN | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/10/what-does-transshipment-trade-mean-for-china-asean-trade-and-us-tariffs?utm_source=openai • 12 Aug 2025 https://www.cilt.org.hk/en-us/publication/file.aspx?id=383&utm_source=openai • Hong Kong airport says cargo throughput surpassed 5M tonnes in 2025 - Asia Cargo News https://www.asiacargonews.com/lander/news/detail?id=11690&utm_source=openai • IATA - Air Cargo Demand up 5.6% in January 2026 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/2026-03-02-01/?utm_source=openai • IATA: Air Cargo Demand Surges 11.2% In February As Global Trade Momentum Strengthens https://aviationtoday.in/iata/iata-air-cargo-demand-surges-11-2-in-february-as-global-trade-momentum-strengthens/?utm_source=openai • Air cargo faces mounting strain despite growth – FIDI Focus https://www.fidifocus.org/on-the-wire/air-cargo-industry-faces-mounting-strains-despite-growth/?utm_source=openai • Drewry Airfreight Price Index | MTS Insights https://www.mtsinsights.com/events/4726/?utm_source=openai • BAI Index February 2026: Tariffs and e-commerce squeeze global air cargo https://www.balticexchange.com/en/news-and-events/news/2026/Tariffs-and-e-commerce-squeeze-global-air-cargo.html?utm_source=openai • Freight Market Update – February 2026 - J.M. Rodgers Co. https://www.jmrodgers.com/freight-market-update-february-2026/?utm_source=openai • TRANSPORT RESEARCH ADVISORY https://www.istat.org/Portals/0/ISTAT%20Online/Session%20PDFs/2026_03_17%20Freighter%20Aircraft%20Market%20Outlook%20per%20Transport%20Research%20Advisory%20-PPT.pdf?ver=PDNQJFSji7Tahm9PC-BTIg%3D%3D&utm_source=openai • Hong Kong : 61 millions de passagers, le hub asiatique se rapproche de 2019 | Air Journal https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-01-19-hong-kong-61-millions-de-passagers-le-hub-asiatique-se-rapproche-de-2019-5272328.html?utm_source=openai • CATHAYINTERIM REPORT 2025Cathay Pacific Airways Limited https://www.cathaypacific.com/content/dam/cx/about-us/investor-relations/interim-annual-reports/en/2025_cx_interim_report_en.pdf?utm_source=openai • Cathay Pacific restarts Seattle flights, expands cargo capacity https://www.stattimes.com/amp/air-cargo/cathay-pacific-restarts-seattle-flights-expands-cargo-capacity-1358598?utm_source=openai • Cathay Cargo launches weekly freighter service to Bangkok - Cathay Pacific https://news.cathaypacific.com/cathay-cargo-launches-weekly-freighter-service-to-bangkok-2715zq?utm_source=openai • JAL builds hybrid cargo network with rail-air push and asset-light freighter strategy  - The Loadstar https://theloadstar.com/jal-builds-hybrid-cargo-network-with-rail-air-push-and-asset-light-freighter-strategy/?utm_source=openai • E-commerce Airfreight Drives 18% of Global Cargo in 2025 https://cargosolutionsnetwork.com/insights/e-commerce-airfreight-drives-18-of-global-cargo-in-2025?utm_source=openai • E-commerce drives global air cargo demand up 3.4% in 2025 - The Hong Kong Shippers' Council https://www.hkshippers.org.hk/page/what-new/post/6712?utm_source=openai • Empowering Cross-Border Trade: FreightAmigo in Hong Kong’s Growth | FreightAmigo https://www.freightamigo.com/en/blog/logistics-news/empowering-cross-border-trade-freightamigo-in-hongs-growth/?utm_source=openai • Air cargo volumes rise 7% in January as China e-commerce exports fall for first time since 2022 | AJOT.COM https://www.ajot.com/news/early-lunar-new-year-flatters-to-deceive-as-global-air-cargo-volumes-rise-7-in-january-but-chinas-e-commerce-exports-down-first-time-since-2022?utm_source=openai • China-Plus-One Strategy: Freight Forwarder Guide | LAX Freight https://laxfreight.com/blog/china-plus-one-shift-freight-forwarders-2025/?utm_source=openai • DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) https://www.hkpc.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/dhl2026q2_report_en.pdf?utm_source=openai • DHL: Hong Kong air traders’ optimism climbs to highest level since late 2024 - Asia Cargo News https://asiacargonews.com/en/news/detail?id=12011&utm_source=openai • DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) https://www.hkpc.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/dhl2026q2_report_en.pdf?utm_source=openai • Lunar New Year 2026 Shipping Guide | Air & Ocean Freight Planning - Crane Worldwide Logistics® https://www.craneww.com/knowledge-center/latest-news-and-info/lunar-new-year-2026/?utm_source=openai • DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI) https://www.hkpc.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/dhl2026q2_report_en.pdf?utm_source=openai • Cathay Pacific restarts Seattle flights, expands cargo capacity https://www.stattimes.com/amp/air-cargo/cathay-pacific-restarts-seattle-flights-expands-cargo-capacity-1358598?utm_source=openai • Lunar New Year 2026 Shipping Guide | Air & Ocean Freight Planning - Crane Worldwide Logistics® https://www.craneww.com/knowledge-center/latest-news-and-info/lunar-new-year-2026/?utm_source=openai