## Company Profile Freight On Board International Services Pty Ltd (FOB) — Australia-based freight forwarder and licensed customs broker. Principal contact: Greg Tout (General Manager | Licensed Customs Broker). Offers international freight forwarding, customs clearance and logistics services for Australian exporters (particularly agri/food exporters) and importers. Likely small-to-mid sized operator serving exporters moving containers, refrigerated (reefer) cargo and bulk agricultural shipments into Asia and global markets. Public contact evidence: https://fob.com.au/contact-us ## Pain Points 1) Schedule reliability & capacity squeeze on Australia–Asia lanes (blank sailings, elevated fuel surcharges, emergency GRIs) — risks rolled cargo, missed seasonal windows and higher freight costs for FOB’s exporter clients. 2) Time‑sensitive reefers and airfreight tightness — perishable exporters need coordinated booking and contingency routing; limited air capacity raises cost and spoilage risk. 3) Exporters’ market access and buyer diversification pressure — Asian buyers are diversifying origins (South America, Brazil) and negotiating harder; FOB’s clients need faster buyer intelligence and sales avenues to convert rising volumes into revenue. 4) Operational friction converting leads into export bookings — as a customs broker/forwarder, FOB may lack a scalable channel to rapidly onboard new small exporters or match them to vetted buyers across Asia without diverting internal resources. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] – AUSTRALIA–ASIA TRADE FLOW SHIFTS, NEW SERVICES, REROUTING (FOCUS: LATE 2025–Q2 2026) === **Structural shifts in Australia–Asia trade flows (agri-heavy lanes)** - ABARES’ latest Agricultural Commodities forecasts (June 2025, projecting to 2025–26) highlight that Australia’s export growth is increasingly Asia‑centric: emerging Southeast Asian markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia recorded average annual growth in Australian ag and food imports of 6% and 5% respectively over recent years, reinforcing a pivot toward ASEAN alongside China, Japan and Korea. ([agriculture.gov.au](https://www.agriculture.gov.au/node/24538?utm_source=openai)) - Export Finance Australia’s July 2025 risk update (with projections through FY2026) expects Australian agriculture export values to ease about 3% to A$72 billion in FY2026 on lower volumes, but notes that **China and Southeast Asia remain the core growth markets**, with rising fruit, nut and grain prices supported by regional demand and quality differentiation. ([exportfinance.gov.au](https://www.exportfinance.gov.au/resources/world-risk-developments/2025/july/australia-agriculture-exports-resilient-despite-slowing-global-growth/?utm_source=openai)) **Port congestion, blank sailings and schedule disruption impacting Australia–Asia flows** - Global congestion and blank sailings continue to affect Australian exporters using Asian hubs: Metro Global (Feb 18, 2026) reports a “surge” in blank sailings on major East‑West trades, with capacity withdrawal coinciding with Lunar New Year. This constrains feeder and mainline capacity through Asian hubs (Singapore, Port Klang, Tanjung Pelepas, Busan), indirectly tightening space and raising schedule risk on Australia–Asia corridors that connect via these hubs. ([metglob.azurewebsites.net](https://metglob.azurewebsites.net/2026/02/18/blanked-sailings-surge-as-congestion-and-reliability-continue-to-constrain-capacity/?utm_source=openai)) - Seabridge Global Logistics’ April 2026 market update notes: - Global schedule reliability “well below long‑term averages,” with preferred sailings filling earlier. - Australian shippers are facing **earlier booking windows and higher fuel‑driven surcharges** on both ocean freight and domestic cartage. - The report flags particular exposure for exporters whose cargo moves via Asian and Middle‑East hubs, given ongoing geopolitical and congestion‑related disruptions. ([seabridge.com.au](https://seabridge.com.au/newsroom/market-update/?utm_source=openai)) **Rerouting and hub‑shifts through Asia and the Middle East** - The re‑routing of global trades around security hotspots (Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf ports) is reshaping transshipment patterns that Australian–Asia flows sometimes rely on: - Freightos weekly updates in March 2026 describe carriers **relying heavily on ports on India’s west coast** as trans‑shipment hubs, with new shuttle services ferrying containers to accessible Gulf ports (Oman, UAE) and some use of north‑Red Sea transits to Jeddah. Congestion is reported at these alternative ports and at Colombo, which has been declining additional Gulf‑bound volume due to pre‑existing congestion. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1rwfibj/freightos_weekly_update_march_17_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Even where Australian exports do not transit the Red Sea, these diversions absorb vessel days and boxes system‑wide, amplifying capacity tightness and congestion in Asian hubs used by Australia–Asia services. **New / adjusted services and network behaviour relevant to Australia–Asia** - Although most public network updates are regional/Global, several trends are material for Australia–Asia: - Maersk’s Asia‑Pacific Market Update (May 8, 2026) highlights continuous **network re‑assessment, frequent schedule changes and ETA recalibrations** in Asia‑Pacific, including rerouting and contingency calls. This includes efforts to better align inland operations with ocean and air flows, which affects Australian exporters using Asian transshipment points for onward distribution. ([maersk.com](https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/05/08/maersk-asia-pacific-market-update-may?utm_source=openai)) - Freightos and other market trackers point to **elevated Asia–Europe and Middle‑East‑linked rates (often 15–50% above 2024 lows)** as of April–May 2026, due largely to rerouting and fuel surcharges. While these figures are lane‑specific (e.g., Asia–Europe), they set benchmark rate and capacity conditions that spill over onto Australia–Asia legs when carriers rebalance vessels across networks. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) **Labour actions and port‑side risk – Australia** - Over the last 90–120 days there are **no major new nationwide Australian port strikes** reported of the scale seen in 2023–24, but the risk of industrial action remains a structural driver of schedule padding and service changes in carriers’ Australia rotations. Current 2026 commentary from logistics providers focuses more on congestion and rerouting effects than on fresh Australian strike activity, implying that: - The near‑term (Q1–Q2 2026) operational risk premium on Australia–Asia routes is being driven primarily by global network instability and fuel costs, not domestic work stoppages. ([seabridge.com.au](https://seabridge.com.au/newsroom/market-update/?utm_source=openai)) **Key take‑aways for market events (Australia–Asia)** - Asia remains the core growth destination for Australian agri exports, but the trade is moving through a **more congested, less reliable network**. - Vessel blankings, alternative hubs (India, Gulf, Sri Lanka) and geopolitical routings raise transit time variability and booking lead‑time requirements for Australia–Asia flows. - New “services” in practice are more about **shuttle and transshipment adjustments** than large, dedicated new Australia–Asia loops in 2026, with carriers preserving flexibility rather than adding long‑term fixed capacity. **Sources – Market Events Section** ABARES Agricultural Commodities; Export Finance Australia ag export outlook; ANZ / Bendigo cropping and commodity updates; Seabridge Global Logistics April 2026 update; Metro Global Feb 2026 capacity note; Maersk Asia‑Pacific Market Update May 2026; Freightos Weekly Updates Jan–May 2026. ([exportfinance.gov.au](https://www.exportfinance.gov.au/resources/world-risk-developments/2025/july/australia-agriculture-exports-resilient-despite-slowing-global-growth/?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [COMMODITY TRENDS] – AUSTRALIAN FRESH PRODUCE & BULK AGRI EXPORTS TO/FROM ASIA (2025–26 & 2026 OUTLOOK) === **Macro outlook for Australian agriculture exports into FY2026** - Export Finance Australia projects **agriculture export values at ~A$72 billion in FY2026, down ~3% YoY** due to softer production, but notes **resilient demand and firm prices** for grains, fruit and nuts, especially in China and Southeast Asia. ([exportfinance.gov.au](https://www.exportfinance.gov.au/resources/world-risk-developments/2025/july/australia-agriculture-exports-resilient-despite-slowing-global-growth/?utm_source=openai)) - ABARES Agricultural Commodities forecasts for 2025–26 show: - Strong 2025–26 winter cropping conditions, with average to above‑average rainfall in key regions supporting higher production. ([agriculture.gov.au](https://www.agriculture.gov.au/node/24538?utm_source=openai)) **Grains & oilseeds (bulk exports – Asia‑focused)** - Bendigo Bank’s February 2026 cropping update estimates Australia’s **2025/26 winter crop at ~66 million tonnes, up 9% YoY**, implying substantial exportable surpluses. Exports, especially wheat, are “lagging the pace required” to clear this larger surplus, raising the importance of export execution and logistics through the remainder of the marketing year. ([bendigobank.com.au](https://www.bendigobank.com.au/business/industries/agribusiness/agriculture-insights/cropping/february-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Commodity Board Europe’s Australia Grain & Feed Outlook for MY 2025/26 (published early 2026) projects: - Wheat production at **37.0 million tonnes**, +8.5% YoY and 34% above the 10‑year average; - Barley exports at **8.6 million tonnes**; - An “export‑heavy and Asia‑focused” balance, with Southeast and East Asia remaining the core destinations for Australian wheat, barley and sorghum. ([commodity-board.com](https://commodity-board.com/australia-grain-feed-outlook-2025-26-record-barley-crop-second-largest-wheat-harvest-and-strong-export-flows/?utm_source=openai)) - S&P Global’s 2026 grains outlook also notes: - Declining bulk wheat shipments from Black Sea exporters to Southeast Asia in 2025, which improves the competitive window for Australian wheat into Asian millers in 2025–26; - However, **weak demand growth and cautious buying by Asian mills**, particularly in China, temper upside in milling wheat demand. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121525-commodities-2026-australia-to-reap-larger-wheat-crop-export-restrictions-to-counter-supply-pressure?utm_source=openai)) - CBA’s 2026 Agri Commodities Outlook expects: - **Canola demand growth with lower production**, driving a projected 13% decline in global stocks in 2026/27 and supporting higher canola prices; - Asia (especially Japan, China, and other North Asian crushers) remains a key demand centre for Australian canola. ([commbank.com.au](https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/01/global-tensions-agriculture-2026-outlook.html?utm_source=openai)) **Beef and livestock – demand and origin diversification in Asia** - ANZ’s Summer 2025–26 commodity insights report that: - **Beef exports are near record highs**, underpinned by strong demand in the US, China, Japan and Korea heading into 2026. ([anz.com.au](https://www.anz.com.au/business/business-hub/resources/industry-insights/commodity-insights-summer-2025-26/?utm_source=openai)) - Yet, CBA’s 2026 outlook flags more challenging conditions: - Removal of US tariffs on Brazilian beef and **China’s introduction of country‑specific beef import quotas** increase competitive pressure on Australian beef in Asia; - This encourages **origin diversification** among Asian buyers (greater Brazilian and South American share), likely constraining Australian price premiums and share growth in 2026–27. ([commbank.com.au](https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/01/global-tensions-agriculture-2026-outlook.html?utm_source=openai)) **Horticulture and fresh produce – Asia demand and seasonality** - ABARES’ September 2025 Agricultural Commodities report (forward‑looking to 2025–26) forecasts **Australian horticulture production to rise in 2025–26**, led by fruit and nuts, after a weaker 2024–25. Export growth is “Asia‑tilted,” with stronger demand from emerging Southeast Asian markets. ([beefcentral.com](https://www.beefcentral.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/00_AgCommodities202509_v1.0.0.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Bendigo Bank’s 2026 Agriculture Outlook (sector report) highlights: - **Table grapes**: per‑capita domestic consumption expected to surpass 5 kg in 2026 with export growth driven by Asia, even as seasonal competition from Peru and Chile intensifies; - Supply from Western Australia is expected to wane, shifting more seasonal export volume from eastern states; - Across horticulture, demand for “quality produce across Southeast Asia” is emphasised as a key growth driver for 2026. ([bendigobank.com.au](https://www.bendigobank.com.au/siteassets/business/industries/agribusiness/agriculture-insights/_reports/2026-australian-agriculture-outlook.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Bendigo Bank’s April 2026 Monthly Commodity Update notes: - **Horticultural export value in the first two months of 2026 has increased significantly versus early 2025**, with standout growth in **avocado exports**, helped by strong Tasmanian seasons and increased plantings. - Avocado prices are “well below early 2025” levels, suggesting volume‑led growth and aggressive export pushing into Asia as domestic supply expands. ([bendigobank.com.au](https://www.bendigobank.com.au/siteassets/business/industries/agribusiness/agriculture-insights/commodity-updates/_reports/april-commodity-update-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - AUSVEG’s Autumn 2026 “Australian Grower” trade statistics show: - Overall vegetable export values softened in 2025, but key Asian and Middle‑Eastern markets remained relatively resilient; - For example, exports to New Zealand dipped only modestly (value –4%, volume –6% from 2024 to 2025), illustrating that even in a soft year, regional markets held up reasonably well. ([ausveg.com.au](https://ausveg.com.au/app/uploads/2026/02/AUSVEG_AustralianGrower_Autumn-2026_FA-lr.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Seasonality & origin diversification signals (Asia buyers)** - For fresh produce (grapes, citrus, avocados, vegetables), recent commentary stresses: - Heightened **counter‑seasonal competition from Latin American origins** (Peru, Chile) in key Asian windows, which compresses Australian pricing power and shortens high‑margin shipping windows. ([bendigobank.com.au](https://www.bendigobank.com.au/siteassets/business/industries/agribusiness/agriculture-insights/_reports/2026-australian-agriculture-outlook.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Asian buyers are increasingly **diversifying origin portfolios** (e.g., for citrus, avocados, table grapes) to manage price volatility and logistics risk, with Australia maintaining a premium “quality and food‑safety” position but facing tighter negotiation margins. ([bendigobank.com.au](https://www.bendigobank.com.au/siteassets/business/industries/agribusiness/agriculture-insights/_reports/2026-australian-agriculture-outlook.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Key take‑aways for commodity trends (Australia–Asia)** - Bulk grains/oilseeds: 2025–26 is an **export‑heavy, Asia‑oriented year** with large wheat/barley surpluses; export pace, port capacity and freight conditions will largely determine realised values. - Beef: Near‑record export volumes but a **more crowded Asian supplier field**, with Brazilian/South American competition and China’s quota structure driving origin diversification. - Fresh produce: Production recovery and expanding plantings (notably in avocados and some fruit categories) are pushing **volume‑led growth into Asia**, often at lower unit prices, while seasonal competition from South America continues to rise. **Sources – Commodity Trends Section** Export Finance Australia ag export outlook; ABARES Agricultural Commodities; Commodity Board Europe Australia Grain & Feed Outlook 2025/26; S&P Global 2026 wheat outlook; ANZ Summer 2025–26 commodity insights; CBA 2026 Agri Commodities Outlook; Bendigo Bank 2026 Agriculture Outlook, February 2026 Cropping Update and April 2026 Commodity Update; AUSVEG Autumn 2026 trade statistics. ([exportfinance.gov.au](https://www.exportfinance.gov.au/resources/world-risk-developments/2025/july/australia-agriculture-exports-resilient-despite-slowing-global-growth/?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [TIMING SIGNALS] – AUSTRALIA 2026 OCEAN & AIR FREIGHT CONDITIONS (Q1–Q2 2026) === **Ocean freight rate levels (global context shaping Australia–Asia costs)** (Direct, Australia‑specific spot benchmarks to Asia are thinly published; market practice is to infer from Asia‑centric indices and add Australia leg adjustments.) - Freightos Baltic Index excerpts show that **Asia–US and Asia–Europe rates remain elevated in 2026 compared to 2024 low‑demand periods**, driven mainly by fuel surcharges and rerouting around security chokepoints: - Jan 13, 2026: Asia–US West Coast FBX01 up 5% in the week to **US$2,757/FEU**; Asia–US East Coast FBX03 up 7% to **US$4,033/FEU**. Asia–Europe rates around **US$2,978/FEU** to N. Europe and ~US$4,850/FEU to the Mediterranean, “levels last reached during the summer peak season,” supported by pre‑Lunar‑New‑Year demand and capacity adds. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1qby5r8/freightos_weekly_update_january_13_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Mar 4, 2026: Asia–US rates “stayed level” week‑on‑week, reflecting a period of stabilization after early‑year hikes. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1rktyct/freightos_weekly_update_march_4_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Mar 17 & 25, 2026: successive **GRIs and emergency surcharges** announced across multiple lanes; Shanghai–Jebel Ali rates reportedly above **US$7,000/FEU**, underlining the cost impact of Gulf/Strait of Hormuz disruptions and multi‑leg transshipment/road alternatives. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1rwfibj/freightos_weekly_update_march_17_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Apr 28, 2026: Asia–US West Coast up 1%, East Coast up 3% WoW; Asia–Europe prices more than **15% higher YoY** and >50% above October 2025 low‑demand levels. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - May 19–20, 2026: Asia–US West and East Coast indices down 1% WoW, but commentary notes that as peak season approaches, **seasonal demand increases will layer on top of a “fuel‑cost‑elevated baseline”**, with more GRIs announced for June aiming to push rates up by ~US$2,000/FEU (though the market is sceptical this full increase will stick). ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1ti4x5c/freightos_weekly_update_may_19_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for Australia–Asia ocean freight (Q1–Q2 2026)** - Australian exporters moving containers via Asian hubs are effectively paying on top of this elevated Asia‑network base: - Fuel‑linked surcharges and emergency fees tied to Middle‑East/Red Sea risks are **broadly applied across carrier networks**, impacting Australia–Asia legs even if they don’t transit the affected regions. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Seabridge (April 2026) expressly notes **accelerating fuel‑driven surcharges in Australian ocean freight**, with preferred sailings filling earlier and shippers advised to book further in advance for Q2. ([seabridge.com.au](https://seabridge.com.au/newsroom/market-update/?utm_source=openai)) **Container capacity and schedule reliability (Australia–Asia context)** - Metro Global (Feb 18, 2026) documents: - A “surge” in **blanked sailings**, weakening schedule reliability and tying up capacity in congested ports; - This coincides with Lunar New Year in Asia, but the capacity withdrawal has knock‑on effects into Q2 2026 as carriers rebalance vessels and box positions. ([metglob.azurewebsites.net](https://metglob.azurewebsites.net/2026/02/18/blanked-sailings-surge-as-congestion-and-reliability-continue-to-constrain-capacity/?utm_source=openai)) - Seabridge’s April 2026 update adds: - **Global schedule reliability remains “well below long‑term averages,”** with more frequent schedule changes and advance‑booking requirements on key lanes relevant for Australia; - For Australian and New Zealand shippers, this implies **higher risk of rolled cargo and cut‑off changes**, particularly for exports dependent on specific Asian connections for cold‑chain integrity (fresh produce, chilled meat). ([seabridge.com.au](https://seabridge.com.au/newsroom/market-update/?utm_source=openai)) - Maersk’s Asia‑Pacific Market Update (May 2026) confirms: - Network conditions in Asia‑Pacific require continual assessment, **frequent ETA recalibrations, rerouting and contingency plans**, and closer alignment of inland operations with ocean and air flows to preserve reliability; - This environment points to **persistent schedule volatility into at least late Q2 2026**. ([maersk.com](https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/05/08/maersk-asia-pacific-market-update-may?utm_source=openai)) **Airfreight capacity and pricing (Australia–Asia, 2026 Q1–Q2)** - Seabridge’s April 2026 outlook for Q2 explicitly states that **airfreight capacity is likely to remain tight on key global routes**, with particular concern for flows that rely on Asia and Middle‑East hubs (the dominant structure for Australia‑origin air cargo into Asia, Europe and the US). ([seabridge.com.au](https://seabridge.com.au/newsroom/market-update/?utm_source=openai)) - IATA’s Q1 2026 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook reports: - **Asia‑Pacific carriers recorded year‑on‑year demand growth at the start of 2026**, underscoring Asia’s continuing role as a key origin; - Scheduled seat capacity for Q2 2026 shows highly uneven growth across Asia‑Pacific, with **more limited growth in Australia and Thailand** than in some Northeast Asian hubs, implying tighter relative capacity on non‑hub routes ex‑Australia. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/quarterly-air-transport-chartbook-q1-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Maersk’s Asia‑Pacific update (May 2026) cites IATA and notes that: - Geopolitical developments, including conflict in the Middle East, are expected to **influence global air cargo performance and supply chain stability**, with shippers advised to coordinate inland and air bookings more tightly; - Asia‑Pacific air cargo demand growth in early 2026 supports a view of **firm rates and constrained space**, especially for time‑sensitive exports (e.g., high‑value fresh produce, chilled meat). ([maersk.com](https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/05/08/maersk-asia-pacific-market-update-may?utm_source=openai)) **Timing signals for agri exporters (Q1–Q2 2026)** Based on the above, timing considerations for Australian agricultural exporters to Asia include: - **Q1 2026** - Elevated container rates vs. 2024, driven by pre‑Lunar‑New‑Year demand and rerouting; - Surge in blank sailings and early‑season congestion, particularly around Asian hubs, reducing schedule reliability; - Airfreight already tight, with growing demand and constrained seat/cargo capacity ex‑Australia. ([metglob.azurewebsites.net](https://metglob.azurewebsites.net/2026/02/18/blanked-sailings-surge-as-congestion-and-reliability-continue-to-constrain-capacity/?utm_source=openai)) - **Q2 2026 (now through late June)** - Ocean: Rates have eased modestly WoW in May but sit on a high fuel‑surcharge base; multiple GRIs and emergency surcharges are already announced for June, indicating **upside risk into peak season**. - Capacity: Continued blank sailings and network recalibration will keep **schedule reliability depressed**; early booking is critical for seasonal shipments (e.g., late‑season grapes, citrus, onions, potatoes, avocados). - Air: IATA and Maersk see **ongoing demand growth and uneven capacity expansion**, suggesting tight space and firm rates into Q2 and likely Q3, particularly on lanes crossing Middle‑East hubs. ([seabridge.com.au](https://seabridge.com.au/newsroom/market-update/?utm_source=openai)) **Sources – Timing Signals Section** Freightos Weekly Updates (Jan–May 2026); Seabridge Global Logistics April 2026 update; Metro Global Feb 2026 capacity note; Maersk Asia‑Pacific Market Update May 2026; IATA Q1 2026 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook. ([seabridge.com.au](https://seabridge.com.au/newsroom/market-update/?utm_source=openai))