## Company Profile PT. DGM Indonesia — freight forwarder and logistics operator serving Indonesian exporters. (Lead evidence: DGM corporate office directory PDF: https://dgm.world/images/pdf/DGM_Corporate_Office_Directory.pdf). Likely offers ocean/air forwarding, customs clearance and logistics for commodity exporters and SMEs. Client base is plausibly plantation and food exporters (palm oil, cocoa, coffee, rubber, rice) and small/medium exporters that need international buyer connections and landed-cost quotations. No public company scale metrics were found in the provided lead data. ## Pain Points 1) Sudden policy and export‑control risk for agricultural shipments: Reg.5/2026 and higher palm‑oil levies (CPO up to 10%) + rapid biodiesel B50 rollout create real risk that cargo booked for export can be diverted or taxed heavily on short notice — DGM must manage client expectations, contracts and rebooking. 2) Freight volatility and landed‑cost uncertainty: 2026 surcharges (ETS/FuelEU, war risk, EFS), blank sailings and sudden cargo rolling are producing large, unpredictable swings in CIF/CFR landed costs — hurting low‑margin commodity exporters DGM serves. 3) Equipment & schedule reliability pockets: despite overall overcapacity, blank sailings and alliance reshuffles cause short‑notice tightness at Indonesian ports and container repositioning headaches (rolled cargo, missed windows), increasing operational complexity and claims exposure. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. COMMODITY TRENDS – INDONESIA (PALM OIL, RUBBER, COCOA, COFFEE, RICE) === **Palm oil** - **Export volumes** - Indonesia exported **23.61 million metric tons** of crude and refined palm oil in **2025**, up **9.1% y/y** versus 2024, according to the statistics bureau. ([brecorder.com](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40405252/KSE-100%20https%3A/www.brecorder.com/trends/kse100?utm_source=openai)) - Monthly data show very strong year‑end momentum: December 2025 CPO exports reached **2.75 million tons**, up **102% m/m** and **66.8% y/y**, with export value about **US$2.79 billion**. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/indonesia/comments/1qvowpv/ekspor_sawit_indonesia_275_juta_ton_melonjak_102/?utm_source=openai)) - In **February 2026**, Indonesia’s palm oil export value was **US$2.89 billion**, near the top of the monthly range seen since 2024 (US$150 million–3 billion), indicating sustained strong export performance into early 2026. ([databoks.katadata.co.id](https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/trade/statistics/6a030126b6704/indonesias-palm-oil-export-value-reached-us289-billion-in-february-2026?utm_source=openai)) - **Price trends** - Regional central‑bank data show **crude palm oil prices up ~5% in 2025** versus 2024, with firm demand and weather risks keeping prices supported. ([cbsi.com.sb](https://www.cbsi.com.sb/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/December-2025-Qrt-Report-Final.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - A 2026 palm‑oil outlook notes that **larger supplies in 2025–26 are being offset by firm demand** from food, biofuel, and oleochemical sectors; export levies for Indonesia are expected to be **5–7.5%** of value under the revised structure linked to biodiesel funding. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121825-commodities-2026-firm-demand-to-offset-larger-supplies-in-palm-oil-markets?utm_source=openai)) - Market commentary for POC 2026 suggests a **range‑bound CPO market** in 2026, with Indonesia’s export share in major markets staying dominant but with upside capped by larger production in Indonesia and Malaysia. ([img.pickastock.info](https://img.pickastock.info/images/data/pdf/2026/02/5285/5285_SDG_RHB-OSK_2026-02-12_BUY_6.95_PlantationMostInAgreementForRangeboundYearAtPOC2026_-712652807.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Forward signals** - GAPKI and analyst forecasts indicate **Indonesia’s CPO production around the mid‑50 million ton level for 2025**, with incremental growth into 2026; this underpins export availability, though rising domestic biodiesel use (B35 already, moving toward B40/B50) will structurally absorb more feedstock. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121825-commodities-2026-firm-demand-to-offset-larger-supplies-in-palm-oil-markets?utm_source=openai)) **Rubber** - Direct, very recent 2026‑specific rubber export data are limited in the last 90 days. Sector commentary bundles rubber within “plantation exports”: - Indonesian plantation exports (palm oil, coffee, cocoa, **rubber**, coconut, tea) are reported to have **“gained momentum for 2026”**, helped by improved global demand and weaker rupiah. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Broader regional reports suggest natural rubber markets in 2025–26 are seeing **modest price recovery** on the back of automotive demand normalization and tightness in some grades, but Indonesia’s incremental volume growth appears **muted compared with palm oil and cocoa**, with more focus on value‑added rubber products. (Inference from composite plantation sector reports.) **Cocoa** - **Export volumes and growth** - A February 2026 market insight states Indonesia’s cocoa exports are **projected to rise 5–10% in 2026 vs 2025**, with export volumes by **November 2026** projected at **>314,000 tons**, up **9.36%** compared with the first 10 months of 2025. ([insights.tridge.com](https://insights.tridge.com/product-monthly-update-market-insights/natural-cocoa-powder-10-12/2026-02?utm_source=openai)) - Earlier, from January–September 2025, Indonesian **cocoa and processed cocoa exports reached US$2.8 billion**, nearly **70% higher y/y**, reflecting both higher prices and larger volumes. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - **Price trends** - In **February 2026**, Indonesia raised the **cocoa bean reference price (HR)** by **0.97%** to **US$5,717.45/mt**, which increased the **Export Benchmark Price (HPE)** by **1.03%** to **US$5,350/mt**. ([insights.tridge.com](https://insights.tridge.com/product-monthly-update-market-insights/natural-cocoa-powder-10-12/2026-02?utm_source=openai)) - These hikes mirror extremely tight global cocoa supply; Indonesia is benefiting from historically high world prices, though domestic grinders face margin pressure. **Coffee** - Plantation‑sector commentary for 2026 notes coffee among the **key commodities strengthening Indonesia’s export position**, alongside palm oil, cocoa, coconut, rubber, and tea. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - While granular 2026 coffee export volume figures by ton weren’t surfaced in the last 90 days, multiple trade analysts point to: - **Firm robusta demand** (especially from Europe and Asia) supporting Indonesian export prices. - A **shift in some origins’ demand to Indonesia** due to weather‑related shortfalls in competing robusta producers (e.g., Vietnam), which is expected to **support both volumes and price premiums** for Indonesian beans and soluble/roasted products through 2026. (Synthesis from plantation and ASEAN market outlooks.) ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Rice** - **Export potential & food‑security threshold** - An ASEAN‑focused 2026 update notes that, with domestic stocks now sufficient for **“months of food security,”** Indonesia has effectively **opened the door for exports of corn and rice**, signaling a more comfortable domestic supply‑demand balance and potential for modest rice exports in 2026. ([wusata.org](https://www.wusata.org/downloads/files/Marketing%20Intelligence%20Reports/WUSATA_Contractor_Market_Intelligence_Report_-_2026_01_-_ASEAN.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - The same report mentions that a **new price policy for rice is to be introduced in 2026**, likely combining floor prices for farmers and ceiling prices for consumers, which will influence export competitiveness. ([wusata.org](https://www.wusata.org/downloads/files/Marketing%20Intelligence%20Reports/WUSATA_Contractor_Market_Intelligence_Report_-_2026_01_-_ASEAN.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Price environment** - Regional commentary suggests that Indonesian rice prices remain **elevated versus pre‑COVID averages**, reflecting tight Southeast Asian supply; however, easing import needs and potential small export windows point to **stabilization rather than further sharp increases** in 2026. **Summary for Dimension 1** - Palm oil remains the **anchor export commodity**, with **~24 MMT exports in 2025 (+9% y/y)** and strong values continuing into **Feb 2026 (US$2.89B)**; prices are firm but expected to be range‑bound in 2026. ([databoks.katadata.co.id](https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/trade/statistics/6a030126b6704/indonesias-palm-oil-export-value-reached-us289-billion-in-february-2026?utm_source=openai)) - Cocoa stands out as a **high‑growth export**, both in value (**+~70% y/y Jan–Sep 2025**) and projected 2026 volumes (**+5–10%**), supported by extraordinary world prices. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Rubber and coffee are benefiting from improved global demand and currency support but with **less dramatic volume shifts** than palm and cocoa, while rice is transitioning from a primarily import‑protection stance toward **selective export opportunities** as 2026 unfolds. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) === 2. MARKET EVENTS – INDONESIA EXPORT RESTRICTIONS / TAXES / BANS (PALM OIL, RICE) === **2.1 Broad 2026 export‑regulatory overhaul** - On **17 March 2026**, Indonesia issued two new Ministry of Trade regulations that **significantly revise export procedures and the framework for export bans/restrictions**: - **Regulation 5/2026** adjusts the **general export policy** and **technical export rules** for several sectors, explicitly including **agricultural products** alongside tin, oil & gas, coal, and minerals. - The regulations clarify categories of **“prohibited” and “restricted” exports**, harmonize licensing, and consolidate procedures for when the government can **impose temporary bans or quotas** for food‑security or price‑stability reasons. ([ahp.id](https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai)) - Implication: while not a specific new ban on palm oil or rice as of March–May 2026, the **legal toolkit has been sharpened**, making it easier for Jakarta to re‑activate export controls (as it did for palm oil in 2022 and for some rice flows) if domestic inflation or supply tightness re‑emerge. **2.2 Palm oil – export levies and taxes** - **Levy structure simplification & rates** - A late‑2023 Ministry of Finance regulation (still the base framework going into 2025–26) simplified palm‑oil export levies and linked them to reference prices. Updated U.S. Department of Agriculture analysis shows: - **Export levy bands** now generally range from **3–7.5% of FOB value**, depending on product and reference price bracket. ([apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Indonesia+Simplifies+Palm+Oil+Export+Levies+in+Response+to+Decreasing+CPO+Exports+_Jakarta_Indonesia_ID2024-0025&utm_source=openai)) - A 2025–26 plantation sector note reports further **upward adjustments to levies**, with Indonesia raising export levies on: - **CPO to 10%** (from 7.5%), and - **Refined palm oil products to 7.5%**, with the additional revenue earmarked to **support the biodiesel mandate**, which in turn offsets some negative impact on planters from higher levies. ([img.pickastock.info](https://img.pickastock.info/images/data/pdf/2025/05/5126/5285_SDG_RHB-OSK_2025-05-15_BUY_5.65_PlantationHigherExportLeviesInIndonesiaKeepOW_1573642454.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Policy intent and trade‑flow impact** - Analysts expect that, despite higher levies, **Indonesian palm oil export volumes will remain robust** in 2026 due to: - Strong global demand (food and biofuel) - Indonesia’s low cost base - A weaker rupiah improving export margins even after taxes. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121825-commodities-2026-firm-demand-to-offset-larger-supplies-in-palm-oil-markets?utm_source=openai)) - However, the **higher tax/levy burden raises FOB price floors** for Indonesian origin versus Malaysia and other oils, potentially: - Nudging some price‑sensitive buyers to alternative origins or to sunflower/soy blends when available. - Encouraging more **downstream exports (olein, biodiesel, oleochemicals)** where value‑added can better absorb taxes. - **Biofuel and domestic allocation** - Indonesia is implementing higher biodiesel blends (already at B35 and targeting B40–B50). A public statement reported in April 2026 confirms a plan to **stop diesel imports by 1 July 2026**, driven by the rollout of **B50**, a blend of 50% diesel and 50% CPO‑based biodiesel. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/indonesia/comments/1spvl5t/indonesia_to_stop_diesel_imports_shift_to_palm/?utm_source=openai)) - This dramatically **increases structural domestic demand for palm oil**, effectively tightening exportable surplus at the margin. The levy hikes and biodiesel policies together shift the policy mix from outright export bans (as in 2022) to **price‑based and domestic‑allocation tools** in 2025–26. **2.3 Rice – food‑security‑driven controls and emerging export openness** - **Evolving stance in 2026** - The ASEAN 2026 update indicates that Indonesia now has **“months of food security”** in stock, which is **opening the door for exports of corn and rice**. ([wusata.org](https://www.wusata.org/downloads/files/Marketing%20Intelligence%20Reports/WUSATA_Contractor_Market_Intelligence_Report_-_2026_01_-_ASEAN.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - The same report flags that Indonesia will introduce a **new rice price policy in 2026**, which: - Formalizes price bands and intervention triggers. - Is likely to determine when exports can be permitted (e.g., only when domestic prices are within a targeted band and stock‑to‑use ratios exceed thresholds). - **Recent history and impact on trade flows (context for 2026)** - In 2022–23, Indonesia used **import facilitation and ad‑hoc export restrictions** (i.e., limiting private rice shipments) to stabilize domestic prices. While no fresh outright export ban is reported for 2026 so far, the new trade‑regulation framework (Reg. 5/2026) **codifies conditions under which bans or quotas can be re‑imposed swiftly** if domestic prices spike. ([ahp.id](https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai)) - For 2026, the baseline scenario is **limited, opportunistic rice exports** rather than sustained large‑scale shipments, with policy flexibility maintained to **swing back to restriction** if El Niño or other shocks hit. **2.4 Overall impact on trade flows (palm oil & rice)** - **Palm oil** - **Higher levies (CPO 10%, refined 7.5%)** raise Indonesia’s take per exported ton but are not curtailing volumes yet; 2025 exports already rose **9.1% y/y**, and early 2026 value data are strong. ([databoks.katadata.co.id](https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/trade/statistics/6a030126b6704/indonesias-palm-oil-export-value-reached-us289-billion-in-february-2026?utm_source=openai)) - The **biodiesel expansion** and the legal ability to re‑impose targeted restrictions (via 5/2026) give authorities powerful tools to **divert product from export to domestic use** if needed, which external buyers must factor into 2026–27 supply‑risk scenarios. ([ahp.id](https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai)) - **Rice** - With stocks more comfortable and a new price policy coming, the trend is **from tight restriction toward cautious liberalization**: some export windows open, but within a framework that is explicitly designed to **protect domestic food security first**. ([ahp.id](https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai)) === 3. DEMAND SIGNALS – OCEAN FREIGHT FOR INDONESIA LANES (EUROPE, US, INTRA‑ASEAN), 2026 === *(Most freight data are lane‑level Asia‑wide; where Indonesia‑specific numbers are absent, I infer Indonesia’s position as a key Southeast Asian origin on those lanes.)* **3.1 Overall 2026 container‑market conditions** - A February 2026 outlook characterizes the 2026 ocean freight market as: - Entering the year with **overcapacity of about 3–5%** (before blank sailings). - Facing **soft underlying demand** but recurrent rate volatility driven by geopolitics (e.g., Red Sea / Hormuz disruptions) and regulatory costs. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - Despite structurally softer fundamentals, **spot and contract rates remain above pre‑COVID norms** once you include surcharges and regulatory cost layers (ETS, FuelEU, security, war risk). ([cxtms.com](https://cxtms.com/blog/ocean-freight-regulatory-cost-layer-ets-imo-security-surcharges-container-rates-2026?utm_source=openai)) **3.2 Asia–Europe lanes (relevant for Indonesia–Europe)**n - **Rate levels** - Early 2026: Asia–Europe container rates (headline base rates) are in the **US$2,500–4,500 per FEU range**, depending on route and contract type. ([cxtms.com](https://cxtms.com/blog/ocean-freight-regulatory-cost-layer-ets-imo-security-surcharges-container-rates-2026?utm_source=openai)) - S&P Global notes the Asia–Europe market entered 2026 with **seasonal firmness**, higher spot rates into early January, and **long‑term contract benchmarks around US$1,700/FEU**, illustrating a gap between spot volatility and contract stability. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - As of April–May 2026, Freightos and Drewry data show Asia–Europe rates roughly **15% higher y/y** and about **50% above levels seen in the October 2025 low‑demand trough**, though some of the earlier war‑related spike has eased back. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - **Blank sailings & capacity** - Carriers have maintained **blank sailings and service suspensions** on Asia–Europe lanes to prop up spot rates amid weak demand and Red Sea routing disruptions. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - Recent reports (May 12, 2026) highlight **tight space and some rolled cargo** due to stepped‑up blank sailings, even though underlying demand is soft—indicating deliberate capacity discipline rather than a volume‑driven crunch. ([summerwin.com](https://www.summerwin.com/blogs/blank-sailings-cargo-rolling-trans-pacific-asia-europe-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - **Bunker fuel & regulatory costs (ETS / FuelEU Maritime)** - The “hidden regulatory cost layer” analysis estimates that **EU ETS allowances, FuelEU Maritime compliance, environmental fuel surcharges, and war‑risk/security levies add roughly 15–20% to base Asia–Europe container rates** in 2026. - Example: all‑in costs can be **US$400–700/FEU higher** than the nominal base rate due to fuel and regulatory surcharges. ([cxtms.com](https://cxtms.com/blog/ocean-freight-regulatory-cost-layer-ets-imo-security-surcharges-container-rates-2026?utm_source=openai)) - Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions have increased bunker consumption via rerouting and slow steaming and triggered **Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS)** and additional war‑risk premia. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1t6bg7e/drewry_world_container_index_excerpt_the_drewry/?utm_source=openai)) **Implication for Indonesia–Europe exports:** Indonesian shippers of palm oil, rubber, cocoa, coffee, and rice to Europe are operating in a **nominally softer but surcharge‑heavy market**: base rates show some easing, but **all‑in landed freight costs are sticky** due to ETS/FuelEU and war‑risk surcharges plus ongoing blank sailings. **3.3 Asia–US lanes (relevant for Indonesia–US)**n - **Rate levels and recent trajectory** - Asia–US West Coast spot rates: - Around **US$2,100/FEU** in late March 2026 (up **3% w/w**). ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1s3joqa/freightos_weekly_update_march_25_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Up to roughly **US$2,500/FEU** by mid‑April (about **US$700/FEU** higher than pre‑war levels). ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1slkfr4/freightos_weekly_update_april_14_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Around **US$2,400/FEU** in mid‑April per another summary; this was **~40–50% higher** than in early 2025. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sf3znx/freightos_weekly_update_april_7_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Asia–US East Coast rates: - Approximately **US$3,100/FEU** in late March 2026 (+4% w/w). ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1s3joqa/freightos_weekly_update_march_25_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - Rising to about **US$3,678/FEU** by mid‑April (**+10% w/w**, ~US$700/FEU above pre‑war levels). ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1slkfr4/freightos_weekly_update_april_14_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - **Blank sailings & capacity management** - On the trans‑Pacific, carriers announced **nine blank sailings in a single week in April 2026** to counter falling rates, highlighting aggressive capacity management. ([valuechainasia.com](https://valuechainasia.com/articles/logistics/trans-pacific-container-rates-2026-asia-exporters?utm_source=openai)) - Multiple Freightos updates through April–May 2026 mention: - **Significant numbers of blanked sailings** around Lunar New Year and into Q2. - Some **cargo rolling** and **tightening space** despite weak demand, as carriers attempt to sustain higher spot rates ahead of peak season. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1r7g0bx/freightos_weekly_update_february_17_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - **Fuel and surcharge dynamics** - Closure and tension in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East have driven **elevated bunker prices** and **emergency fuel surcharges**: - Example: MSC’s EFS on Asia–USEC raised from **US$430 to US$644/FEU** and on Asia–USWC from **US$272 to US$467/FEU**; CMA CGM introduced a **US$2,000/FEU Peak Season Surcharge** for some lanes effective 1 May. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1t6bg7e/drewry_world_container_index_excerpt_the_drewry/?utm_source=openai)) - Reports of **dwindling bunker availability in some Asian hubs** are causing vessels to deviate to alternative ports, paradoxically **increasing fuel usage** while also supporting higher fuel‑related surcharges. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1slkfr4/freightos_weekly_update_april_14_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) **Implication for Indonesia–US exports:** Exporters shipping from Indonesian ports (e.g., Tanjung Priok, Belawan, Surabaya) into USWC/USEC are confronted with **elevated, volatile rates** driven more by **fuel surcharges and capacity controls** than by strong demand. For commodity exporters, this makes **freight‑inclusive delivered pricing more uncertain**, particularly for low‑margin bulk-in-container trades (e.g., bagged rice, rubber, cocoa, coffee). **3.4 Intra‑ASEAN and regional short‑sea** - Direct index data for 2026 intra‑ASEAN container prices are sparse, but broader capacity commentary indicates: - Structural **overcapacity in the global fleet (3–5%)** spills into regional services, putting **downward pressure on base short‑sea rates**. ([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/2026-freight-market-outlook?utm_source=openai)) - However, **regulatory and fuel‑related cost increases** (ETS does not apply, but IMO decarbonization and fuel standards plus general bunker inflation do) still add a **cost floor** for carriers. - An ASEAN 2026 report notes that Indonesia is deepening regional trade (e.g., spices, processed foods, plantation commodities) under downstreaming strategies, implying **steady to growing intra‑ASEAN volume demand** for container and breakbulk services originating in Indonesia. ([wusata.org](https://www.wusata.org/downloads/files/Marketing%20Intelligence%20Reports/WUSATA_Contractor_Market_Intelligence_Report_-_2026_01_-_ASEAN.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Net effect:** For Indonesia–ASEAN lanes, **nominal freight levels are relatively more competitive** than deep‑sea, but carriers may still deploy **blank sailings on secondary loops** when network utilization falls, causing **schedule reliability and container positioning issues** even if spot dollar/FEU levels are moderate. **3.5 Container availability & equipment balance** - 2026 commentary emphasizes **volatility rather than chronic shortage**: - Overcapacity plus weak demand mean **global container stocks are ample**; the constraints arise from **where boxes are positioned** and from **blank sailings that interrupt repositioning cycles**. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - Reports of **“cargo rolling”** on Asia–Europe and trans‑Pacific in May 2026 show that despite adequate global capacity, **operational decisions (blank sailings, alliance schedule changes)** create **pockets of equipment tightness** at origin ports. ([summerwin.com](https://www.summerwin.com/blogs/blank-sailings-cargo-rolling-trans-pacific-asia-europe-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - For Indonesian exporters this translates into: - Relatively **good access to equipment on average**, but - **Short‑notice rollings and cut‑and‑run calls** when loops omit Indonesian calls or consolidate loads in larger regional hubs (e.g., Singapore, Port Klang). **3.6 Bunker fuel and 2026 regulatory context** - S&P and other analysts project that 2026 will feature: - Continued implementation of **IMO decarbonization measures** and regional climate rules (e.g., EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime) that **raise fuel and compliance costs** even in an oversupplied market. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - For Asia–Europe lanes, all‑in cost inflation of **15–20% above base rates** due solely to the “regulatory cost layer” (ETS allowances, FuelEU, CO₂ surcharges, war‑risk/security). ([cxtms.com](https://cxtms.com/blog/ocean-freight-regulatory-cost-layer-ets-imo-security-surcharges-container-rates-2026?utm_source=openai)) - On trans‑Pacific and intra‑Asia routes, direct ETS costs don’t apply, but **higher global bunker prices**—exacerbated by Hormuz/Red Sea issues and fuel‑availability constraints—drive carriers to: - Announce **emergency fuel surcharges**, - **Slow steam**, - And **blank additional sailings** to manage both cost and price levels. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1t4l4eo/freightos_weekly_update_may_5_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) **Summary for Dimension 3** - **Capacity:** Global container shipping in 2026 is characterized by **3–5% structural overcapacity**, but Indonesian exporters still face **sporadic tightness** due to **blank sailings and service reshuffling** on Asia–Europe and trans‑Pacific loops. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - **Rates:** - Asia–Europe: **US$2,500–4,500/FEU** range early 2026; about **15% higher y/y** and **50% above late‑2025 lows**, heavily influenced by ETS/FuelEU and war‑risk surcharges. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - Asia–US: West Coast around **US$2,100–2,500/FEU**, East Coast **US$3,100–3,700/FEU**, up roughly **40–50% versus early‑2025 lows**, supported by surcharges and capacity management despite weak demand. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sf3znx/freightos_weekly_update_april_7_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) - **Surcharges & fuel:** Bunker‑related and regulatory surcharges in 2026 can add **US$400–700/FEU** to Asia–Europe shipments and substantial extras on trans‑Pacific; for Indonesian agricultural exporters, this significantly **affects delivered CIF/CFR pricing**, margin structures, and contract strategies. ([cxtms.com](https://cxtms.com/blog/ocean-freight-regulatory-cost-layer-ets-imo-security-surcharges-container-rates-2026?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • Indonesia’s 2025 palm oil exports volume at 23.61 million metric tons - Markets - Business Recorder https://www.brecorder.com/news/40405252/KSE-100%20https%3A/www.brecorder.com/trends/kse100?utm_source=openai • Ekspor Sawit Indonesia 2,75 Juta Ton, Melonjak 102 Persen di Desember 2025 : Okezone Economy https://www.reddit.com/r/indonesia/comments/1qvowpv/ekspor_sawit_indonesia_275_juta_ton_melonjak_102/?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Palm Oil Export Value Reached US$2.89 Billion in February 2026 https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/trade/statistics/6a030126b6704/indonesias-palm-oil-export-value-reached-us289-billion-in-february-2026?utm_source=openai • Quarterly Review December 2025 https://www.cbsi.com.sb/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/December-2025-Qrt-Report-Final.pdf?utm_source=openai • COMMODITIES 2026: Firm demand to offset larger supplies in palm oil markets | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121825-commodities-2026-firm-demand-to-offset-larger-supplies-in-palm-oil-markets?utm_source=openai • Regional Sector Update https://img.pickastock.info/images/data/pdf/2026/02/5285/5285_SDG_RHB-OSK_2026-02-12_BUY_6.95_PlantationMostInAgreementForRangeboundYearAtPOC2026_-712652807.pdf?utm_source=openai • COMMODITIES 2026: Firm demand to offset larger supplies in palm oil markets | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121825-commodities-2026-firm-demand-to-offset-larger-supplies-in-palm-oil-markets?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Plantation Exports Gain Momentum for 2026 - Expat Indonesia https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai • Natural Cocoa Powder 10-12% Monthly Market Insight - February 2026 | Tridge Insights https://insights.tridge.com/product-monthly-update-market-insights/natural-cocoa-powder-10-12/2026-02?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Plantation Exports Gain Momentum for 2026 - Expat Indonesia https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai • Natural Cocoa Powder 10-12% Monthly Market Insight - February 2026 | Tridge Insights https://insights.tridge.com/product-monthly-update-market-insights/natural-cocoa-powder-10-12/2026-02?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Plantation Exports Gain Momentum for 2026 - Expat Indonesia https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Plantation Exports Gain Momentum for 2026 - Expat Indonesia https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai • 2026 MONTHLY PROGRAM UPDATE https://www.wusata.org/downloads/files/Marketing%20Intelligence%20Reports/WUSATA_Contractor_Market_INTEL_REPORT_-_2026_01_-_ASEAN.pdf?utm_source=openai • 2026 MONTHLY PROGRAM UPDATE https://www.wusata.org/downloads/files/Marketing%20Intelligence%20Reports/WUSATA_Contractor_Market_INTEL_REPORT_-_2026_01_-_ASEAN.pdf?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Palm Oil Export Value Reached US$2.89 Billion in February 2026 https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/trade/statistics/6a030126b6704/indonesias-palm-oil-export-value-reached-us289-billion-in-february-2026?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Plantation Exports Gain Momentum for 2026 - Expat Indonesia https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Plantation Exports Gain Momentum for 2026 - Expat Indonesia https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Revises Export Framework: Key Changes to Procedure and Export Bans - Assegaf Hamzah & Partners https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai • Voluntary Report – Voluntary - Public Distribution https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Indonesia+Simplifies+Palm+Oil+Export+Levies+in+Response+to+Decreasing+CPO+Exports+_Jakarta_Indonesia_ID2024-0025&utm_source=openai • Regional Sector News Flash https://img.pickastock.info/images/data/pdf/2025/05/5126/5285_SDG_RHB-OSK_2025-05-15_BUY_5.65_PlantationHigherExportLeviesInIndonesiaKeepOW_1573642454.pdf?utm_source=openai • COMMODITIES 2026: Firm demand to offset larger supplies in palm oil markets | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121825-commodities-2026-firm-demand-to-offset-larger-supplies-in-palm-oil-markets?utm_source=openai • Indonesia to stop diesel imports, shift to palm oil fuel https://www.reddit.com/r/indonesia/comments/1spvl5t/indonesia_to_stop_diesel_imports_shift_to_palm/?utm_source=openai • 2026 MONTHLY PROGRAM UPDATE https://www.wusata.org/downloads/files/Marketing%20Intelligence%20Reports/WUSATA_Contractor_Market_INTEL_REPORT_-_2026_01_-_ASEAN.pdf?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Revises Export Framework: Key Changes to Procedure and Export Bans - Assegaf Hamzah & Partners https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Revises Export Framework: Key Changes to Procedure and Export Bans - Assegaf Hamzah & Partners https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai • Indonesia’s Palm Oil Export Value Reached US$2.89 Billion in February 2026 https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/trade/statistics/6a030126b6704/indonesias-palm-oil-export-value-reached-us289-billion-in-february-2026?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Revises Export Framework: Key Changes to Procedure and Export Bans - Assegaf Hamzah & Partners https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai • Indonesia Revises Export Framework: Key Changes to Procedure and Export Bans - Assegaf Hamzah & Partners https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai • 2026 Ocean Freight Outlook: Softer Rates Ahead, but Volatility Isn’t Going Anywhere | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai • The Hidden Regulatory Cost Layer in Ocean Freight: How ETS, IMO, and Security Surcharges Are Adding 15-20% to Base Container Rates in 2026 | CXTMS https://cxtms.com/blog/ocean-freight-regulatory-cost-layer-ets-imo-security-surcharges-container-rates-2026?utm_source=openai • The Hidden Regulatory Cost Layer in Ocean Freight: How ETS, IMO, and Security Surcharges Are Adding 15-20% to Base Container Rates in 2026 | CXTMS https://cxtms.com/blog/ocean-freight-regulatory-cost-layer-ets-imo-security-surcharges-container-rates-2026?utm_source=openai • CONTAINERS QUARTERLY: Asia-Europe enters 2026 with seasonal firmness, structural uncertainty | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai • FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - April 28, 2026 | Excerpts: “Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 1%.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 3%.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai • CONTAINERS QUARTERLY: Asia-Europe enters 2026 with seasonal firmness, structural uncertainty | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai • Blank Sailings Surge: Cargo Rolling Hits Trans-Pacific & Asia-Europe https://www.summerwin.com/blogs/blank-sailings-cargo-rolling-trans-pacific-asia-europe-2026/?utm_source=openai • The Hidden Regulatory Cost Layer in Ocean Freight: How ETS, IMO, and Security Surcharges Are Adding 15-20% to Base Container Rates in 2026 | CXTMS https://cxtms.com/blog/ocean-freight-regulatory-cost-layer-ets-imo-security-surcharges-container-rates-2026?utm_source=openai • FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - May 5, 2026 | Excerpts: “Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 2%.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 10%.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1t4l4eo/freightos_weekly_update_may_5_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai • 2026 Ocean Freight Outlook: Softer Rates Ahead, but Volatility Isn’t Going Anywhere | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai • CONTAINERS QUARTERLY: Asia-Europe enters 2026 with seasonal firmness, structural uncertainty | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai • FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - April 7, 2026 | Excerpts: “Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 11%.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 5%.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sf3znx/freightos_weekly_update_april_7_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai • The Hidden Regulatory Cost Layer in Ocean Freight: How ETS, IMO, and Security Surcharges Are Adding 15-20% to Base Container Rates in 2026 | CXTMS https://cxtms.com/blog/ocean-freight-regulatory-cost-layer-ets-imo-security-surcharges-container-rates-2026?utm_source=openai • FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - March 25, 2026 | Excerpts: “Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 3%.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 4%.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1s3joqa/freightos_weekly_update_march_25_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai • FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - April 14, 2026 | Excerpts: “Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 3%.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 10%.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1slkfr4/freightos_weekly_update_april_14_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai • Trans-Pacific rates 2026: Asian exporters face reversal https://valuechainasia.com/articles/logistics/trans-pacific-container-rates-2026-asia-exporters?utm_source=openai • FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - February 17, 2026 | Excerpts: ” Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 2%.” | “Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 12%.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1r7g0bx/freightos_weekly_update_february_17_2026_excerpts/?utm_source=openai • Drewry - World Container Index | Excerpt: “The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) increased 3% to $2,286 per 40ft container after three consecutive weekly declines, driven by higher freight rates on Transpacific and Asia–Europe trade lanes.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1t6bg7e/drewry_world_container_index_excerpt_the_drewry/?utm_source=openai