## Company Profile KHAI MINH GROUPS COMPANY LIMITED (KMG) — Vietnam-based freight forwarder. Public-facing website (http://www.kmg.vn) lists KMG as a logistics and forwarding company; contact on record is Ms. Huong (Brand Director). As a freight forwarder in Vietnam KMG likely provides export/import freight (sea/air/road), customs clearance, and cargo consolidation/warehousing for exporters — especially agricultural and manufactured goods shipped from southern (HCMC/Cai Mep) and northern (Hai Phong) gateways. Exact scale/headcount not publicly available from the site record; positioning appears to be a commercial freight forwarder serving exporters that need door-to-port and port-to-door logistics solutions. ## Pain Points 1) Route & capacity disruption: KMG’s exporter clients face Singapore transshipment congestion, blank sailings and 2–3× higher rates on US/EU lanes in early‑2026. They need forwarders who can quickly secure direct mainline calls (Cai Mep) or alternative routings without lengthy re‑quotes. 2) Compliance & documentation gap: NSW expansion and rising EVFTA/ESG traceability expectations mean small/mid exporters struggle with origin documentation, digital CoO and sustainability proofs — creating margin risk and lost tariff benefits. Forwarders must offer digital-ready, FTA-compliant processes. 3) Lead generation & client diversification: Rapid growth in seafood (shrimp, pangasius, tuna) and heightened demand from China, EU and US creates opportunities but KMG may lack a steady pipeline of qualified agri-food exporters (and buyers) ready to scale — requiring buyer-match and export-origination support that Tridge Ark can supply. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. DEMAND SIGNALS – VIETNAM EXPORT CONTAINER VOLUMES & CORRIDOR SHIFTS (Q1–EARLY Q2 2026) === **1.1 Overall container volume trajectory** - Vietnam’s container trade is projected to keep expanding in 2026, but at a slower pace than 2025 as global demand normalizes and freight costs stay volatile. Securities and logistics analysts still maintain a positive multi‑year view on Vietnam’s container growth, citing improved export prospects to the US/EU and sustained infrastructure investment. ([vndirect.com.vn](https://www.vndirect.com.vn/cmsupload/beta/Navigating2026_VNDIRECT.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - At port level, Hai Phong seaport has set a **2026 target of 9.1 million TEU** of container throughput (out of 122 million tons of all cargo), illustrating expectations of continued strong volumes on northern corridors (China, Northeast Asia, US West Coast via transshipment). ([vietnam.vn](https://www.vietnam.vn/en/cang-bien-hai-phong-phan-dau-dat-122-trieu-tan-hang-hoa-thong-qua-trong-nam-2026?utm_source=openai)) - Cai Mep–Thi Vai cluster in the south reports that in **early 2026 container throughput was up 9% YoY**, as more mainline services call directly to **Europe and both US coasts**, reinforcing its role as Vietnam’s deep‑sea export gateway. Total throughput at Cai Mep is expected to reach **~2.1 million TEU in 2026** (cumulative 6.5 million TEU in its first 5 years). ([en.sggp.org.vn](https://en.sggp.org.vn/share124343.html?utm_source=openai)) **Implication:** Directionally, 2026 Q1 shows **mid‑single‑digit to high‑single‑digit volume growth** in the main international gateways, with particularly strong growth in deep‑sea services (Asia–Europe and Asia–US) via Cai Mep–Thi Vai. --- **1.2 Corridor shifts: US, EU, China, ASEAN** - A recent WTO/Center for WTO and Integration note on Vietnam’s 2026 export target highlights that by **early March 2026**, several markets were growing **>10% YoY**, notably: - **US, Mexico, Canada** - **China & Hong Kong** - A group of **EU markets** including Poland, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Czech Republic. ([wtocenter.vn](https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai)) While not quoted in TEU, this indicates **broad‑based demand growth** across North America, China, and parts of the EU – consistent with higher outbound container requirements on those lanes. - The same report notes that **container shipping rates to the US and EU had surged 2–3× as of early March 2026** versus prior low points, suggesting capacity tightness and strong booking demand on Vietnam–US and Vietnam–EU corridors, even where volume growth is moderate. ([wtocenter.vn](https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai)) **Directional interpretation by corridor (Q1–early Q2 2026):** - **US corridor** - Demand from the US is still seen as a key growth driver for Vietnam’s exports in 2026 (especially in textiles, furniture, electronics, agro‑food), but with **elevated freight rates and tighter capacity**. ([wtocenter.vn](https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai)) - In practice, this translates into **stable to modestly rising export TEUs** to the US, but a much sharper **increase in cost per FEU/TEU** and in booking lead‑times. - **EU corridor** - Vietnam’s export outlook calls out the EU as a continued opportunity despite “green standards” and trade protection pressures; specific EU destinations (Poland, Belgium, etc.) are growing >10%, again implying rising containerized exports. ([wtocenter.vn](https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai)) - Cai Mep–Thi Vai’s 9% throughput growth is explicitly linked to **new and expanded direct Europe services**, which typically carry higher‑value, FTA‑leveraged export cargo (EVFTA). ([en.sggp.org.vn](https://en.sggp.org.vn/share124343.html?utm_source=openai)) - **China / intra‑Asia (including ASEAN)** - Official trade commentary notes >10% growth in exports to **China and Hong Kong**, while Vietnam continues to run a **large trade deficit with China** (projected USD 115.6bn in 2025, +39.6% YoY), implying heavy **two‑way container flows on the China–Vietnam corridor**. ([vntradetoca.org](https://vntradetoca.org/en/vietnams-import-export-outlook-2026-great-opportunities-in-us-and-eu-markets/?utm_source=openai)) - ASEAN trade remains structurally important but Vietnam’s deficit with ASEAN was expected to widen (‑USD 14.2bn in 2025, +42.4% YoY), which generally implies robust import‑heavy container flows via **Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand** hubs and feeder services. ([vntradetoca.org](https://vntradetoca.org/en/vietnams-import-export-outlook-2026-great-opportunities-in-us-and-eu-markets/?utm_source=openai)) --- **1.3 Singapore congestion & transshipment effects on Vietnam lanes** - An April 2026 logistics market report characterizes **“historic congestion” at the Port of Singapore**, driven by: - Diverted traffic due to security risks in the Gulf / Hormuz area. - Concentration of carrier capacity in major hub ports. - Result: “unprecedented congestion…constraining regional cargo flows at scale.” ([glotransvn.com.vn](https://www.glotransvn.com.vn/market-news/logistics-market-report-april-2026-the-singapore-bottleneck-hormuz-risks-and-strategic-implications-for-vietnam-s-trade?utm_source=openai)) - For **Vietnam‑origin exports**, the report notes: - **Longer dwell and rollover risks** for Vietnam‑origin containers transshipping via Singapore, especially on **US and EU‑bound services** routed SG → US/EU. - Carriers respond by **blank sailings and capacity reshuffles**, forcing some Vietnam shippers to **re‑route via alternative hubs** (e.g., Port Klang, Tanjung Pelepas) or secure space on **direct calls at Cai Mep–Thi Vai** where possible. ([glotransvn.com.vn](https://www.glotransvn.com.vn/market-news/logistics-market-report-april-2026-the-singapore-bottleneck-hormuz-risks-and-strategic-implications-for-vietnam-s-trade?utm_source=openai)) - Anecdotal freight‑forwarding commentary for Asia export trades in Feb 2026 describes a post‑Chinese New Year lull as a “trap” with carriers **stacking blank sailings** to protect spot rates while export volumes ramp up – reinforcing the view that operational capacity, not pure demand, is constraining some Vietnam export flows. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/freightforwarding/comments/1rdh1oi/postcny_calm_is_a_trap_how_do_we_handle_export/?utm_source=openai)) **Net effect on corridors (Q1–early Q2 2026):** - **US / EU via Singapore** - **Operational constraint**: higher rollover risk, longer booking windows, and **2–3× rate increases** compared to mid‑2025 levels. ([wtocenter.vn](https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai)) - **Behavioral shift**: Larger shippers increasingly **prioritize direct deep‑sea services from Cai Mep–Thi Vai** to US/EU to avoid Singapore congestion where their routing allows. - **China / intra‑ASEAN short‑sea** - Singapore congestion mainly affects services that hub there; some **northbound/southbound feeder loops** between Vietnam and ASEAN hubs are seeing **schedule unreliability**, but core volumes remain strong given trade growth with China and within ASEAN. --- **1.4 Port‑level dynamics inside Vietnam** - **Northern cluster (Hai Phong / Lach Huyen)** - Throughput target **9.1M TEU in 2026**, with Lach Huyen deep‑water berths (up to 200,000 DWT) positioned as a **future transshipment and rail‑linked hub for China–Vietnam corridor** once new rail projects come online. ([vietnam.vn](https://www.vietnam.vn/en/cang-bien-hai-phong-phan-dau-dat-122-trieu-tan-hang-hoa-thong-qua-trong-nam-2026?utm_source=openai)) - Expect continued growth in **China‑linked and North Asia‑linked containers**, plus some US West Coast volumes via transshipment hubs. - **Southern cluster (Cat Lai + Cai Mep–Thi Vai)** - A recent port‑intelligence note estimates **Cat Lai + associated HCMC ports handled ~11.4M TEU in 2025**, though still with truck turnaround of 4–5 hours in peak cut‑offs. Cai Mep is highlighted as the **preferred gateway for mainline US/EU calls**. ([kantormaterials.com](https://www.kantormaterials.com/insights/vietnam-polymer-import-2026-hs-codes-form-e-duties-lead-times?utm_source=openai)) - In early 2026, **Cai Mep throughput +9% YoY** and expected **2.1M TEU in 2026**, confirming a shift of some export volume (especially long‑haul) from inner‑city terminals to deep‑sea ports. ([en.sggp.org.vn](https://en.sggp.org.vn/share124343.html?utm_source=openai)) **Takeaway:** For 2026 Q1 (and into early Q2), the **headline demand signal is positive**: Vietnam’s export container volumes to US, EU, and China are growing, but **effective throughput is being gated by hub‑port congestion (Singapore) and elevated freight rates**. Direct deep‑sea services from Cai Mep–Thi Vai are gaining relative importance, while Hai Phong is targeting significant container growth on northern corridors. **Sources (Demand Signals):** ([vietnam.vn](https://www.vietnam.vn/en/cang-bien-hai-phong-phan-dau-dat-122-trieu-tan-hang-hoa-thong-qua-trong-nam-2026?utm_source=openai)) === 2. MARKET EVENTS – TRADE POLICY, NATIONAL SINGLE WINDOW, EVFTA / LOGISTICS REGULATIONS (2026) === **2.1 National Single Window (NSW) & ASEAN Single Window (ASW) in 2026** - Vietnam’s **National Single Window (NSW) platform** (operated by Vietnam Customs) is live and reported as **operating stably as of May 8, 2026**, with integrated links to the **ASEAN Single Window** for cross‑border certificate exchange (e.g., ATIGA e‑Form D). ([vnsw.gov.vn](https://vnsw.gov.vn/profile/homepage.aspx?languageId=2&utm_source=openai)) - A March/April 2026 ESCAP/Vietnam Customs presentation on “Implementation of National Single Window and ASEAN Single Window” details that: - Vietnam has **connected multiple ministries and agencies** to the NSW and is actively expanding the list of procedures available online. - Vietnam is fully linked to the **ASEAN Single Window live environment**, supporting electronic exchange of certificates of origin and other documents within ASEAN. ([unescap.org](https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/2.%20Session%201%20%28Part%202%29_Viet%20Nam%20Country%20Status.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Sector‑specific upgrade example: - In the **chemicals sector**, an official letter (late 2025, implemented **January 1, 2026**) moved a set of chemical‑related administrative procedures to the **Ministry of Industry and Trade’s centralized administrative system**, pending completion of NSW technical upgrades. This means traders temporarily file via the ministry system while data integration with the NSW continues. ([enviapac.com.vn](https://www.enviapac.com.vn/en/node/351?utm_source=openai)) **Implications:** - The **direction of travel in 2026 is deeper digitalization and consolidation of procedures** into the NSW, with some transitional work‑arounds by line ministries. - For exporters/importers, this generally reduces paperwork and clearance times but may require **procedural updates per sector** (e.g., chemicals) as ministries adjust their digital platforms. --- **2.2 Customs modernization & logistics regulations** - Vietnam’s ongoing customs reform is framed by: - Implementation of the **WTO Trade Facilification Agreement** and ASEAN commitments (e.g., single window, risk management). - National strategies to **cut clearance time and logistics costs** and to digitalize end‑to‑end processes. - The ESCAP country status document (2026) on Vietnam’s NSW/ASW highlights progress in: - **Electronic document submission** and decision‑making for customs release. - Expansion of **risk management and post‑clearance audit**, allowing faster release for compliant traders and shifting controls away from the border. ([unescap.org](https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/2.%20Session%201%20%28Part%202%29_Viet%20Nam%20Country%20Status.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - On logistics, Vietnam’s 2026 trade outlook emphasizes the need to: - **Upgrade ports, roads and rail links** (notably corridors feeding Hai Phong and Cai Mep–Thi Vai). - Manage rising logistics costs due to **2–3× higher ocean rates** to US and EU and external shocks (e.g., Hormuz, Singapore congestion). ([wtocenter.vn](https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai)) **Practical export‑side impact 2026:** - **More electronic interaction** with customs and line ministries (NSW, ministry portals). - Increased emphasis on **digital certificates of origin and origin data** to support FTA utilization and to respond to heightened green/trade compliance in US/EU. - **Regulatory focus on traceability, environment, and security** is rising, which especially affects agro‑food and seafood exporters. --- **2.3 EVFTA – rules of origin and 2026 context** - The **EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA)** has been in force since 2020; most technical rules of origin (RoO) are already in place. A 2025 EVFTA business handbook (Vietnam–Germany focus) reiterates: - EVFTA RoO are specified in the agreement’s **Protocol 1** and sectoral annexes. - Compliance hinges on proper **origin documentation and record‑keeping**, especially for multi‑stage production (e.g., textiles, seafood processing). ([vntr.moit.gov.vn](https://vntr.moit.gov.vn/storage/publications/publications/15-business-handbook-exploiting-the-evfta-to-import-and-export-goods-between-vietnam-and-germany-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - While **no major 2026 RoO amendments** have been announced in the open sources scanned, EVFTA is increasingly tied to: - **EU “green deal”/CBAM‑type expectations**, sustainability reporting, and due diligence around supply chains. - Implementation of EU’s **deforestation‑free regulation** and broader ESG requirements, which in practice raise the bar on traceability for commodities like coffee, seafood, and wood products exported from Vietnam. - Vietnam’s 2026 import‑export outlook stresses that: - The EU remains a **strategic market**, but exporters face **tightening “green standards”, traceability rules and trade protection instruments**, which effectively function as **quasi‑regulatory requirements on top of EVFTA’s tariff preferences**. ([vntradetoca.org](https://vntradetoca.org/en/vietnams-import-export-outlook-2026-great-opportunities-in-us-and-eu-markets/?utm_source=openai)) **Inference for 2026 (RoO/use of EVFTA):** - The main **legal RoO frameworks are stable**, but: - Market access to the EU is becoming **conditioned on ESG/traceability**. - Seafood, coffee and other agri‑food exporters must **align documentation, chain‑of‑custody, and digital records** to both EVFTA RoO and these emerging regulatory expectations. --- **2.4 Other 2026 trade‑policy themes affecting logistics and commodities** - Vietnam’s 2026 export strategy and trade offices abroad underscore: - Strong opportunity in **US and EU markets**, but: - Exposure to **trade defense measures**, “green” regulations and **supply‑chain security** policies. - Rising deficits with **China, Korea, ASEAN** that may add political pressure to diversify sourcing and encourage more **value‑added domestic production**. ([vntradetoca.org](https://vntradetoca.org/en/vietnams-import-export-outlook-2026-great-opportunities-in-us-and-eu-markets/?utm_source=openai)) - For logistics: - Vietnamese authorities and trade offices call for businesses to **diversify shipping routes and partners**, and to improve **logistics cost management** amid volatile freight rates and hub congestion. ([wtocenter.vn](https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Market Events / Policy):** ([vnsw.gov.vn](https://vnsw.gov.vn/profile/homepage.aspx?languageId=2&utm_source=openai)) === 3. COMMODITY TRENDS – VIETNAM SEAFOOD & COFFEE EXPORTS (EARLY 2026) === #### 3.1 Headline seafood export performance, early 2026 - Vietnam’s seafood export turnover in **January 2026 reached ~USD 874 million, +13% YoY**, according to VASEP (via WTO Center). ([wtocenter.vn](https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/29593-seafood-exports-post-13-growth-in-early-2026?utm_source=openai)) - Vietnam Customs data show that by **Feb 15, 2026, seafood export revenue totaled nearly USD 1.46 billion**, keeping seafood among the country’s top three agricultural export earners. ([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnams-shrimp-exports-in-2026-u-s-tariff-relief-and-a-race-to-defend-market-share-in-china.html?utm_source=openai)) - A VCCI trade center report notes that **China became Vietnam’s largest seafood market in January 2026**, with exports of **~USD 250 million, +28.7% YoY**, driven largely by shrimp demand. ([thestar.com.my](https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/02/13/seafood-exports-in-vietnam-under-pressure-from-tightened-us-rules-duties?utm_source=openai)) - For full‑year 2025, Vietnam’s seafood exports were estimated at **USD 11.35 billion, +13.1% YoY**, with shrimp as the main growth driver. ([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) VASEP and sector analysts expect **continued growth in 2026**, but with **stronger headwinds** from trade measures (especially US), the EU IUU “yellow card”, and intensifying competition from other exporters. ([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) --- #### 3.2 Shrimp: price movements, market mix & policy shocks **Volumes & value** - In **January 2026**, shrimp exports were: - **USD 331 million, +6.4% YoY**, accounting for **~38% of total seafood exports**. - Growth was primarily driven by **China and Japan**, while the **US market slowed** due to anti‑dumping duties and tightened enforcement. ([thestar.com.my](https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/02/13/seafood-exports-in-vietnam-under-pressure-from-tightened-us-rules-duties?utm_source=openai)) - For 2025, shrimp exports were about **USD 4.6 billion**, confirming shrimp as the largest contributor to seafood export value. ([vietnam.incorp.asia](https://vietnam.incorp.asia/vietnam-seafood-export-market-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) **Price & margin environment** - Industry reviews note that shrimp’s strong role in 2025 stemmed from: - **Global food stockpiling** under geopolitical risk, pulling forward demand. - Vietnam’s early **adjustments to shipment schedules and contract pricing** in anticipation of policy risks. - Extensive use of FTAs (CPTPP, EVFTA, RCEP) to **diversify markets** and capture tariff advantages. ([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) - A February 2026 market overview highlights: - **Whiteleg shrimp prices showed high volatility in February 2026**, influenced by: - Lunar New Year production disruptions. - New trade barriers in the **US and EU** (heightened enforcement of duties, technical standards). ([asemconnectvietnam.gov.vn](https://asemconnectvietnam.gov.vn/default.aspx?ID1=2&ID8=147361&ZID1=8&utm_source=openai)) **Regulatory / demand trends in key markets** - **US:** - Shrimp exports face **tightened trade and environmental rules** and anti‑dumping duties, dampening early‑2026 shipments. ([thestar.com.my](https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/02/13/seafood-exports-in-vietnam-under-pressure-from-tightened-us-rules-duties?utm_source=openai)) - However, a Vietfish 2026 article on shrimp notes **prospects for some tariff relief** (e.g., administrative reviews, partial duty reductions), creating a medium‑term opportunity to recover US market share. ([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnams-shrimp-exports-in-2026-u-s-tariff-relief-and-a-race-to-defend-market-share-in-china.html?utm_source=openai)) - **China & Hong Kong:** - Remain the **most dynamic growth market**; China was Vietnam’s largest seafood market in January 2026 and a major buyer of shrimp for pre‑Lunar New Year demand. ([thestar.com.my](https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/02/13/seafood-exports-in-vietnam-under-pressure-from-tightened-us-rules-duties?utm_source=openai)) - **EU & Japan:** - Japan continues as a **stable, high‑value outlet for processed shrimp** and mixed seafood products; January 2026 seafood exports to Japan were ~USD 146 million (+21.3% YoY). ([wtocenter.vn](https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/29593-seafood-exports-post-13-growth-in-early-2026?utm_source=openai)) - The EU market is constrained by the **IUU yellow card and stricter sustainability rules**, but still offers tariff advantages under EVFTA for exporters that can prove compliance. ([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) --- #### 3.3 Pangasius (tra fish): recovery, prices & market diversification **Volumes & value** - Pangasius exports in 2025 were **~USD 2.2 billion**, the second‑largest seafood export category after shrimp. ([vietnam.incorp.asia](https://vietnam.incorp.asia/vietnam-seafood-export-market-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) - In **February 2026**, specific pangasius trends include: - Exports slowed MoM due to Lunar New Year disruptions but **China remained the leading market**. ([seafood.vasep.com.vn](https://seafood.vasep.com.vn/key-seafood-sectors/pangasius/news/vietnam-pangasius-exports-in-february-2026-china-remains-the-leading-market-36228.html?utm_source=openai)) - For the first two months of 2026, pangasius exports to: - **EU totaled USD 26 million, +7% YoY**, signaling a **gradual recovery** in EU demand. - Other markets such as **CPTPP members and the Middle East** show even higher growth rates (EU +25%, CPTPP +53%, Middle East +35% for pangasius and tuna combined in early 2026, per Vietfish market data). ([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnams-pangasius-tuna-exports-pick-up-in-early-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) - A February 2026 pangasius industry outlook forecasts **~USD 2.3 billion in pangasius export turnover for full‑year 2026**, reflecting a strong rebound from previous years. ([seafood.media](https://www.seafood.media/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp?country=&day=26&df=0&id=137362&l=e&monthyear=2-2026&ndb=1&special=&utm_source=openai)) **Price trends** - In the Mekong Delta, **farm‑gate prices for commercial‑grade pangasius (0.8–1 kg)** reached: - Around **VND 35,000/kg in early 2026**, which is **VND 5,000–7,000 higher than previous peak cycles**, marking the strongest price surge in years. ([asemconnectvietnam.gov.vn](https://asemconnectvietnam.gov.vn/default.aspx?ID1=2&ID8=147361&ZID1=8&utm_source=openai)) - Rising prices have: - Restored farmer profitability after periods of high feed costs and low selling prices. - Increased pressure on processors/exporters to **adjust export prices** and manage working capital and inventory risk. ([seafood.media](https://www.seafood.media/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp?country=&day=26&df=0&id=137362&l=e&monthyear=2-2026&ndb=1&special=&utm_source=openai)) **Market structure** - **China & Hong Kong**: - Continue as the **single largest destination** for pangasius exports, driven by demand for frozen fillets and value‑for‑money white fish products. ([seafood.vasep.com.vn](https://seafood.vasep.com.vn/key-seafood-sectors/pangasius/news/vietnam-pangasius-exports-in-february-2026-china-remains-the-leading-market-36228.html?utm_source=openai)) - **US & EU**: - US demand is gradually recovering but constrained by the catfish inspection program and anti‑dumping measures. ([seafood.media](https://www.seafood.media/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp?country=&day=26&df=0&id=137362&l=e&monthyear=2-2026&ndb=1&special=&utm_source=openai)) - EU demand shows moderate recovery (+7% in early 2026) but is sensitive to reputational and sustainability issues, pushing exporters to **improve traceability and environmental performance**. ([seafood.vasep.com.vn](https://seafood.vasep.com.vn/key-seafood-sectors/pangasius/news/vietnam-pangasius-exports-in-february-2026-china-remains-the-leading-market-36228.html?utm_source=openai)) - **CPTPP & Middle East**: - Show the **fastest growth rates** (CPTPP +53%, Middle East +35% in early 2026 for pangasius and tuna), acting as diversification outlets away from US/EU risk. ([vietfishmagazine.com](https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnams-pangasius-tuna-exports-pick-up-in-early-2026.html?utm_source=openai)) --- #### 3.4 Tuna & other seafood categories - **Tuna:** - Vietnam Customs data indicate **tuna exports in January 2026 were >USD 75 million, +13% YoY**. ([seafood.vasep.com.vn](https://seafood.vasep.com.vn/key-seafood-sectors/tuna/news/vietnam-s-tuna-exports-rise-in-early-2026-while-shipments-to-the-u-s-decline-36101.html?utm_source=openai)) - Growth is driven mainly by **EU and CPTPP markets**, while shipments to the **US are declining** due to tariffs and technical barriers. - VASEP still expects tuned exports to **maintain an upward trend in early 2026**, especially in higher‑value, canned and value‑added products targeting EU markets with strong sustainability credentials. ([seafood.vasep.com.vn](https://seafood.vasep.com.vn/key-seafood-sectors/tuna/news/vietnam-s-tuna-exports-rise-in-early-2026-while-shipments-to-the-u-s-decline-36101.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Lobster and premium live seafood:** - Industry briefings note strong recent growth (especially in 2025) in **lobster exports to China and Hong Kong**, driven by food‑service and hospitality demand for live, high‑end seafood. This premium segment is expected to remain **sensitive to China’s economic conditions** and travel/hospitality cycles in 2026. ([vietnam-briefing.com](https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnams-seafood-exports-growth-drivers-market-shifts-and-2026-outlook.html/?utm_source=openai)) --- #### 3.5 Coffee – export and price context for 2026 (Direct 2026 coffee‑specific sources are scarcer in the 90‑day window, but existing trade outlooks provide context.) - Vietnam is the world’s second‑largest coffee exporter, with exports in recent years around **1.5–1.7 million tons per year** and values heavily influenced by **global Robusta prices**. - 2026 trade outlook documents emphasize: - **US and EU** remain priority markets, but face **“green standards” and due‑diligence regimes**, particularly the EU’s deforestation‑free rules, which will directly affect **coffee supply chains** from Vietnam. ([vntradetoca.org](https://vntradetoca.org/en/vietnams-import-export-outlook-2026-great-opportunities-in-us-and-eu-markets/?utm_source=openai)) - Exporters are being advised to: - Strengthen **farm‑level traceability** and land‑use documentation. - Invest in **quality upgrading and value‑added roasting/processing** to offset compliance costs and potential supply constraints. - Given tight Robusta supply globally through 2024–2025 and strong demand for instant and espresso blends, it is reasonable to infer that **Vietnam’s coffee export prices entering 2026 remain elevated versus historical averages**, with **upside risk from any weather or disease shock** in key growing provinces. (This is an inference layered onto general trade‑outlook commentary; exact 2026 coffee price series were not available in the last‑90‑day sources scanned.) --- #### 3.6 Cross‑cutting risk factors & demand signals (China / EU / US) - **China:** - Emerged as **Vietnam’s largest seafood market in early 2026**, particularly for shrimp, pangasius and premium live species. ([thestar.com.my](https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/02/13/seafood-exports-in-vietnam-under-pressure-from-tightened-us-rules-duties?utm_source=openai)) - However, February 2026 forecasts warn of **softer Chinese demand** after earlier stockpiling, which may depress prices or slow shipments in the months following Lunar New Year. ([wtocenter.vn](https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/29593-seafood-exports-post-13-growth-in-early-2026?utm_source=openai)) - **US:** - A key growth driver for pangasius and shrimp over the medium term (especially as trade frictions with China divert demand), but: - Subject to **anti‑dumping duties, environmental rules and stricter customs enforcement** that are already visible in early‑2026 shipment data (shrimp slowdown, tuna shipments to US declining). ([thestar.com.my](https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/02/13/seafood-exports-in-vietnam-under-pressure-from-tightened-us-rules-duties?utm_source=openai)) - **EU:** - Overall demand is **gradually recovering** (e.g., pangasius +7% early 2026; tuna growth potential), but new **sustainability and traceability obligations** raise compliance costs and could cap volume growth for exporters unable to invest in systems. ([seafood.vasep.com.vn](https://seafood.vasep.com.vn/key-seafood-sectors/pangasius/news/vietnam-pangasius-exports-in-february-2026-china-remains-the-leading-market-36228.html?utm_source=openai)) **Net commodity trend view (early 2026):** - **Seafood:** - Value growth continues into 2026 (**Jan +13% YoY**, ~USD 874m; >USD 1.46bn by mid‑Feb), led by **shrimp and pangasius**. - **China and other Asian markets** anchor demand; **US and EU** offer value but carry regulatory risk. - Input and farm‑gate price increases (notably pangasius) support farmer margins but pressure processors and exporters. - **Coffee:** - Structural demand from US/EU remains strong, with **higher‑than‑historic price levels** driven by tight Robusta supply (inferred from broader global context). - Regulatory pressure from the EU’s deforestation‑free rules and broader green agenda is the main strategic risk, pushing exporters toward **traceable, certified, and possibly more value‑added models**. **Sources (Commodity Trends):** ([vietnam.incorp.asia](https://vietnam.incorp.asia/vietnam-seafood-export-market-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • Table of content https://www.vndirect.com.vn/cmsupload/beta/Navigating2026_VNDIRECT.pdf?utm_source=openai • Hai Phong seaport aims to achieve a cargo throughput of 122 million tons in 2026. https://www.vietnam.vn/en/cang-bien-hai-phong-phan-dau-dat-122-trieu-tan-hang-hoa-thong-qua-trong-nam-2026?utm_source=openai • Ports accelerate thanks to infrastructure links | SGGP English Edition https://en.sggp.org.vn/share124343.html?utm_source=openai • TTWTO VCCI - A launchpad for Viet Nam’s 2026 export target https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai • TTWTO VCCI - A launchpad for Viet Nam’s 2026 export target https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai • TTWTO VCCI - A launchpad for Viet Nam’s 2026 export target https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai • TTWTO VCCI - A launchpad for Viet Nam’s 2026 export target https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai • Ports accelerate thanks to infrastructure links | SGGP English Edition https://en.sggp.org.vn/share124343.html?utm_source=openai • Vietnam’s import-export outlook 2026: Great opportunities in US and EU markets | Vietnam Trade Office in Canada https://vntradetoca.org/en/vietnams-import-export-outlook-2026-great-opportunities-in-us-and-eu-markets/?utm_source=openai • Vietnam’s import-export outlook 2026: Great opportunities in US and EU markets | Vietnam Trade Office in Canada https://vntradetoca.org/en/vietnams-import-export-outlook-2026-great-opportunities-in-us-and-eu-markets/?utm_source=openai • Logistics Market Report – April 2026: The Singapore Bottleneck, Hormuz Risks, and Strategic Implications for Vietnam’s Trade https://www.glotransvn.com.vn/market-news/logistics-market-report-april-2026-the-singapore-bottleneck-hormuz-risks-and-strategic-implications-for-vietnam-s-trade?utm_source=openai • Logistics Market Report – April 2026: The Singapore Bottleneck, Hormuz Risks, and Strategic Implications for Vietnam’s Trade https://www.glotransvn.com.vn/market-news/logistics-market-report-april-2026-the-singapore-bottleneck-hormuz-risks-and-strategic-implications-for-vietnam-s-trade?utm_source=openai • Post-CNY “calm” is a trap: How do we handle export freight from China? https://www.reddit.com/r/freightforwarding/comments/1rdh1oi/postcny_calm_is_a_trap_how_do_we_handle_export/?utm_source=openai • TTWTO VCCI - A launchpad for Viet Nam’s 2026 export target https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai • Hai Phong seaport aims to achieve a cargo throughput of 122 million tons in 2026. https://www.vietnam.vn/en/cang-bien-hai-phong-phan-dau-dat-122-trieu-tan-hang-hoa-thong-qua-trong-nam-2026?utm_source=openai • Vietnam Polymer Import 2026: HS Codes, Form E, Duties, Lead Times — Kantor Materials https://www.kantormaterials.com/insights/vietnam-polymer-import-2026-hs-codes-form-e-duties-lead-times?utm_source=openai • Ports accelerate thanks to infrastructure links | SGGP English Edition https://en.sggp.org.vn/share124343.html?utm_source=openai • Hai Phong seaport aims to achieve a cargo throughput of 122 million tons in 2026. https://www.vietnam.vn/en/cang-bien-hai-phong-phan-dau-dat-122-trieu-tan-hang-hoa-thong-qua-trong-nam-2026?utm_source=openai • CỔNG THÔNG TIN MỘT CỬA QUỐC GIA https://vnsw.gov.vn/profile/homepage.aspx?languageId=2&utm_source=openai • VIETNAM CUSTOMSIMPLEMENTATION OF https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/2.%20Session%201%20%28Part%202%29_Viet%20Nam%20Country%20Status.pdf?utm_source=openai • Notice on the Update of Administrative Procedures in the Chemical Sector on the National Single Window Portal | ENVIAPAC RESEARCH & CONSULTING CO., LTD. https://www.enviapac.com.vn/en/node/351?utm_source=openai • VIETNAM CUSTOMSIMPLEMENTATION OF https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/2.%20Session%201%20%28Part%202%29_Viet%20Nam%20Country%20Status.pdf?utm_source=openai • TTWTO VCCI - A launchpad for Viet Nam’s 2026 export target https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/30176-a-launchpad-for-viet-nams-2026-export-target?utm_source=openai • CENTER FOR WTO AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE https://vntr.moit.gov.vn/storage/publications/publications/15-business-handbook-exploiting-the-evfta-to-import-and-export-goods-between-vietnam-and-germany-en.pdf?utm_source=openai • Vietnam’s import-export outlook 2026: Great opportunities in US and EU markets | Vietnam Trade Office in Canada https://vntradetoca.org/en/vietnams-import-export-outlook-2026-great-opportunities-in-us-and-eu-markets/?utm_source=openai • Vietnam’s import-export outlook 2026: Great opportunities in US and EU markets | Vietnam Trade Office in Canada https://vntradetoca.org/en/vietnams-import-export-outlook-2026-great-opportunities-in-us-and-eu-markets/?utm_source=openai • TTWTO VCCI - Seafood exports post 13% growth in early 2026 https://wtocenter.vn/tin-tuc/29593-seafood-exports-post-13-growth-in-early-2026?utm_source=openai • Vietnam’s shrimp exports in 2026: U.S. tariff relief and a race to defend market share in China – Vietnam Fisheries Magazine https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnams-shrimp-exports-in-2026-u-s-tariff-relief-and-a-race-to-defend-market-share-in-china.html?utm_source=openai • Seafood exports in Vietnam under pressure from tightened US rules, duties | The Star https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2026/02/13/seafood-exports-in-vietnam-under-pressure-from-tightened-us-rules-duties?utm_source=openai • Vietnam seafood exports face mounting challenges in 2026 – Vietnam Fisheries Magazine https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai • Vietnam seafood exports face mounting challenges in 2026 – Vietnam Fisheries Magazine https://vietfishmagazine.com/markets/vietnam-seafood-exports-face-mounting-challenges-in-2026.html?utm_source=openai • Vietnam Seafood Export Market: Performance, Key Drivers, and 2026 Forecast | InCorp Vietnam https://vietnam.incorp.asia/vietnam-seafood-export-market-outlook/?utm_source=openai