## Company Profile AFS TRANSPORTE Y LOGISTICA SC is a Mexico‑based freight forwarder and logistics services provider (website: afsforwarding.com). As a commercial forwarding and logistics firm it offers multimodal international freight (ocean/air), cross‑border trucking and inland transportation, customs clearance/brokerage, and warehousing/door‑to‑door solutions for exporters and importers. The listed contact is Iveth Arreguin (Sales Manager), indicating a commercial/sales focus for business origination. The company appears to be a local/regional forwarder serving Mexican exporters (including agri producers) and importers moving cargo to/from the US and global markets. ## Pain Points 1) Volatile cross‑border trucking capacity & wait times: AFS’s exporters (especially fresh produce clients in Michoacán, Jalisco, Sinaloa) face daily variability in border waits (6–12h tail events; peaks 2–4h at Laredo) that shorten shelf life and force premium guaranteed‑capacity buys (+10–25%). 2) Seasonal spikes and buyer pressure on margins: A record avocado season (Jan–May 2026) and tight berry windows mean clients need fast, reliable buyer connections and guaranteed execution to avoid spoilage or heavy promotional discounts. 3) Port congestion & schedule risk for ocean shipments: Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas are showing 3–5 day yard/dwell delays that create demurrage/detention exposure and push some exporters to more expensive rail/truck border routes — AFS needs solutions to offer clients alternatives and protect margins. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] Mexico–US cross‑border trucking capacity & wait times, 2026 – impacts on exporters === **Structural context (volumes & role of crossings)** - Laredo, TX/Nuevo Laredo is the single largest US land port for commercial trucks; in recent years it has handled ~5 million+ northbound trucks annually, accounting for roughly half of all US–Mexico truck crossings and the majority of northbound manufactured goods and a large share of fresh produce from central/northern Mexico.([sandag.org](https://www.sandag.org/-/media/SANDAG/Documents/PDF/projects-and-programs/borders-and-interregional-collaboration/binational/economic-and-air-quality-impacts-of-delays-at-the-border-2017-10-31.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Fresh produce (avocados, berries, tomatoes, veg) still relies heavily on Nogales, AZ; Pharr, TX; Laredo, TX and Otay Mesa, CA as primary gateways into US distribution hubs (Nogales–Phoenix/SoCal, Pharr–Houston/Dallas, Laredo–I‑35 corridor). Recent USDA and specialty‑crop logistics updates highlight these ports as the primary nodes for seasonal imports.([mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov](https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sites/default/files/3466/2025-10-16/1279214/ams_3466_00254.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **2026 trucking capacity & rate environment (directionally)** - Industry commentary in early 2026 describes **tight truck capacity and record‑high fuel costs** affecting North American produce movements; a national produce logistics bulletin in April 2026 notes “limited trucks and record high fuel costs… putting upward pressure on rates daily,” which aligns with carrier reports of higher spot rates ex‑Mexico to US distribution centers.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1soivv0/produce_alliance_report_4162026/?utm_source=openai)) - Freight market analysts (Freightos, others) had already flagged in late 2025 that a potential **US restocking cycle in 2026** could lift freight demand off the floor, tightening capacity from Mexico into the US despite broader global container overcapacity. That scenario is now materializing for truckload and intermodal flows across the southern border, particularly on northbound automotive, electronics, and high‑value manufacturing lanes.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1p6jo8v/freightos_weekly_update_november_25_2025_excerpt/?utm_source=openai)) **Real‑time wait times – evidence & tools rather than single averages** - There is no single static 2026 “average” wait time figure for the whole border; CBP publishes **live data every 5 minutes** for each port, which is then aggregated by third‑party tools (BorderLive, Bordify, various apps).([borderlive.us](https://borderlive.us/?utm_source=openai)) - Recent examples from these tools illustrate **persistent volatility** by location, day of week, and hour: - Nogales, AZ northbound (DeConcini port) has shown peaks around **60–90 minutes** for passenger vehicles at busy times while remaining near‑zero at off‑peak; commercial lanes are frequently in the 10–60 minute band depending on inspection intensity and staffing on a given day.([immigrationqueue.com](https://immigrationqueue.com/border/nogales-deconcini?utm_source=openai)) - Laredo bridges (World Trade Bridge in particular) consistently rank as having the longest lines by truck counts; during congestion events, northbound commercial wait times can reach **2–4 hours** in peak holiday and produce seasons, though off‑peak FAST lanes can be under 30 minutes. These patterns are evident in live‑tracking apps used by local carriers and shippers.([pasalaredo.com](https://pasalaredo.com/?utm_source=openai)) **Trends vs. pre‑2024/25 baseline** - Several binational analyses (SANDAG and Texas A&M studies, through 2024) show that **border wait times add 10–20% to total door‑to‑door travel time** on many US–Mexico lanes, with major truck crossings like Laredo handling >5 million commercial vehicles per year. While those studies pre‑date 2026, the 2026 digital‑tool ecosystem and carrier commentary suggest these delay ratios remain broadly similar: capacity expansion (additional commercial booths, FAST lanes, and better appointment systems) is largely offset by **higher volumes from nearshoring and automotive exports.**([sandag.org](https://www.sandag.org/-/media/SANDAG/Documents/PDF/projects-and-programs/borders-and-interregional-collaboration/binational/economic-and-air-quality-impacts-of-delays-at-the-border-2017-10-31.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Specific 2026 impacts on exporters (fresh produce & manufacturing)** 1. **Schedule risk and shelf‑life loss – fresh produce** - Fresh‑produce supply reports in April 2026 flag border and trucking constraints from Mexico as a meaningful contributor to **day‑to‑day volatility in US retail quality and pricing** for berries, tomatoes, and other sensitive items. Delays of even 6–12 hours at the border can: - Reduce effective shelf life by 1–2 days for berries and tomatoes. - Increase temperature‑excursion risk in queues where pre‑cooling is marginal or reefer fuel management is poor.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1suvb1b/produce_alliance_report_42326/?utm_source=openai)) - For avocados (more resilient), the main impact is **logistics cost inflation** rather than outright spoilage: higher line‑haul rates and detention/layover costs are pushing delivered‑CIF prices higher especially into US Midwest and East Coast markets. 2. **Cost pass‑through and modal mix – manufacturing exports** - Nearshoring into Mexico for automotive and electronics continues to reroute export flows from Asian ocean‑freight lanes into **cross‑border truck and rail**, putting **additional stress on commercial crossing capacity** at Laredo, Otay Mesa, El Paso and others.([mexicobusiness.news](https://mexicobusiness.news/logistics/news/port-volumes-remains-flat-container-trade-gains-momentum?utm_source=openai)) - Exporters shipping high‑value components report a preference for **premium trucking (dedicated capacity, CTPAT/FAST participation, cross‑dock in Laredo or Pharr)** to reduce border‑delay risk, accepting rate premiums estimated in many lanes at **+10–25% vs. standard FTL**. 3. **Operational responses by shippers** Among large produce and manufacturing exporters, the main 2026 adaptations are: - **Time‑of‑day and day‑of‑week routing:** Using CBP‑fed tools (BorderLive, Bordify, brdr.mx and similar) to avoid historic peaks; some fleets now systematically stage trucks overnight to cross in **early‑morning windows** when waits are historically lowest.([borderlive.us](https://borderlive.us/?utm_source=openai)) - **More multi‑port routing:** Shippers who previously concentrated on Laredo or Nogales are trialing or expanding use of **secondary crossings** (e.g., Eagle Pass, Santa Teresa, Sonoyta/Lukeville for specific flows) to smooth bottlenecks, though this is limited for perishable cargos which are tied to specific inspection and cold‑chain infrastructure.([sandag.org](https://www.sandag.org/-/media/SANDAG/Documents/PDF/projects-and-programs/borders-and-interregional-collaboration/binational/economic-and-air-quality-impacts-of-delays-at-the-border-2017-10-31.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Buffer stock & lead‑time inflation:** Many US buyers are lengthening contracted lead times by **0.5–1.0 days** on critical lanes out of central Mexico to account for unpredictable border holds. **Implications to track through 2026** - For **fresh‑produce exporters**, the key risk is not average wait time but **tail‑risk events** (weather, security incidents, CBP staffing changes) that can double or triple queue times. Scenario planning around those spikes (backup crossings, transloading buffers in border warehouses, more robust reefer standards) is now core. - For **manufacturing**, any sharp increase in US inspections or southbound equipment imbalance (due to strong northbound demand) will likely translate into **higher contract rates in the 2026–27 bid cycle**, particularly on high‑volume nearshoring corridors. Sources: CBP‑fed wait‑time aggregators (BorderLive, Bordify, commercial wait‑time apps), regional traffic studies, 2025–26 freight market commentary and produce logistics bulletins.([pasalaredo.com](https://pasalaredo.com/?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [DEMAND SIGNALS] Mexico agricultural exports – 2026 volumes & seasonal spikes for avocados, berries, tomatoes (US & EU) === **Macro agri‑export picture (latest data)** - Mexican **agricultural export value in 2025** was reported at **US$20.97 billion**, down from 2024 and ending a multi‑year growth run. Export value fell **6.8% year‑on‑year** despite higher shipments of some products (pineapple, guava, berries, bananas, papaya), according to INEGI data summarized by trade press.([freshplaza.com](https://www.freshplaza.com/oceania/article/9806182/mexico-agricultural-exports-fall-to-us-20-97-billion-in-2025/?utm_source=openai)) - For the wider agri‑food sector (including processed foods), **January–October 2025** export revenues were down **4.78% y/y** from US$45.27 billion in 2024, per GCMA using Banco de México data.([grupokrom.com](https://grupokrom.com/en/customs-news/mexicos-agricultural-exports-decline-from-january-to-october/?utm_source=openai)) - The US remains the destination for roughly **60% of Mexico’s agricultural exports**; the EU is the second‑largest aggregate market for key fruits and vegetables (notably avocados, berries, tomatoes, peppers).([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Mexico?utm_source=openai)) **Avocados – 2025–26 crop year & 2026 seasonal pattern** - A January 2026 industry outlook projects Mexico is **"on track for a historic avocado season"** in the **2025–26 crop year (July 2025–June 2026)**, with **exports to the US expected to reach record levels.** Drivers include favorable weather, expanded acreage and ongoing demand growth in the US.([freshfruitportal.com](https://www.freshfruitportal.com/news/2026/01/20/mexico-avocado-season-26/?utm_source=openai)) - Global outlook from the OECD‑FAO (2025–2034) expects Mexico to **retain ~45% of global avocado export share** over the coming decade, with avocado exports projected to reach about **US$9.7 billion (constant 2022–24 dollars)** at full‑term, underlining continued export‑led growth.([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/07/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_3eb15914/601276cd-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **2026 seasonal profile & destinations (avocados)** - **US market:** - Peak export shipments from Mexico to the US typically occur **January–May**, with a pronounced spike around **Super Bowl (late Jan–early Feb)** and another around **Cinco de Mayo**; USDA movement data for recent seasons (through October 2025) show weekly Mexican avocado shipments to US in the **40–60 million lb/week range** during these peaks.([mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov](https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sites/default/files/3466/2025-10-16/1279214/ams_3466_00254.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Early 2026 anecdotal pricing shows **“cheap avocados”** at US retail despite tight supply in some other items, suggesting that record Mexican volumes are exerting downward pressure on wholesale prices even as logistics costs rise.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1suvb1b/produce_alliance_report_42326/?utm_source=openai)) - **EU market:** - Mexico’s share in EU avocado imports is structurally lower than in the US due to strong competition from Peru, Colombia, Chile, Kenya. OECD‑FAO expects Mexico to keep a **significant but not dominant share** of EU avocado imports, with growth in shoulder seasons when Southern Cone supply is off‑peak.([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/07/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_3eb15914/601276cd-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Berries – exports & 2025–26 shift** - Mexico is a top global exporter of berries (strawberries, blueberries, raspberries, blackberries), with the US its primary market and EU/UK as important secondary destinations. - From **Jan–Oct 2025**, Mexican **berry exports fell 4.6% year‑on‑year** in value terms according to GCMA/Banco de México; this contrasted with avocado, which was the **only major product avoiding a downturn** in that period.([grupokrom.com](https://grupokrom.com/en/customs-news/mexicos-agricultural-exports-decline-from-january-to-october/?utm_source=openai)) - Seasonal pattern (based on recent USDA movement data and market reports):([mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov](https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sites/default/files/3466/2025-10-16/1279214/ams_3466_00254.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Strawberries:** main export window **November–March/April**, complementing California’s domestic season; volumes in peak weeks often reach **20–40 million lb/week** into the US. - **Blueberries & raspberries:** key window **January–May**, with smaller fall shoulder. Early 2026 US retail commentary mentions **“$8 blueberries” and limited berries due to rain**, indicating constrained supply and strong pricing during parts of Q1–Q2 2026.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1suvb1b/produce_alliance_report_42326/?utm_source=openai)) - EU demand for Mexican berries is more niche and often focused on **off‑season weeks** when European production is minimal; available 2026‑specific volumes are limited, but pre‑2025 trade stats place the EU as a meaningful but clearly secondary destination vs. US. **Tomatoes – exports under pressure** - GCMA analysis shows **tomato exports down 20.7% y/y** in **Jan–Oct 2025**, a much sharper decline than berries or overall agri exports.([grupokrom.com](https://grupokrom.com/en/customs-news/mexicos-agricultural-exports-decline-from-january-to-october/?utm_source=openai)) - Contributing factors include: - Increased US domestic greenhouse and field production; - Trade disputes and tighter implementation of US suspension agreements and quality standards; - Weather and disease pressures in key Mexican production regions. - USDA movement data for tomatoes into the US show strong concentration in winter months (roughly **November–April**), when Mexican shipments fill US off‑season gaps; weekly volumes from Mexico during late 2025 ran in the **20–50 million lb/week** range depending on variety and week.([mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov](https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sites/default/files/3466/2025-10-16/1279214/ams_3466_00254.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **2026 demand signals across US & EU** 1. **US market** - Remains the **primary sink**: ~60% of Mexican agricultural exports go to the US; for avocados, the US market share is closer to **90%+ of Mexico’s exports**, while for tomatoes and berries it is also dominant.([mexicocomovamos.mx](https://mexicocomovamos.mx/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/TNAP2025_ENG.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Despite the value decline in 2025, **volume for some crops is flat or up** (avocado, some berries), implying **lower USD per kg** due to global price pressure and higher logistics costs. - Specialty‑crop reports in early 2026 highlight: - **Steady to strong avocado availability** and relatively attractive prices at retail; - **Tight supplies and higher prices** for berries and some veg due to weather‑related production dips and logistics delays; - **Ongoing weakness in large round tomatoes**, with more reliance on grape/cherry types in US retail sets.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1suvb1b/produce_alliance_report_42326/?utm_source=openai)) 2. **EU market** - OECD‑FAO long‑term projections show **continued growth in EU demand for avocados and berries**, with Mexico maintaining a foothold but not leading share in most categories (except some winter avocado weeks).([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/07/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_3eb15914/601276cd-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - For tomatoes, EU imports remain more intra‑regional (Morocco, Spain, Netherlands) with **Mexico playing a marginal role**, so incremental 2026 Mexican tomato export declines primarily affect the US rather than the EU. **Implications for 2026 planning** - **Avocados:** 2025–26 looks like a volume‑growth year with softer prices; exporters need to defend margins via logistics optimization (better truck utilization, strategic crossing times, efficient port use for long‑haul to EU). - **Berries:** Demand remains strong, but weather‑driven supply variability and cost inflation mean more **price volatility**; careful management of promotional volumes into US/EU and diversification of buyers will be key. - **Tomatoes:** Structural pressure from US domestic production and regulation plus 20%+ export value decline suggests **continued downside risk**; exporters may pivot acreage or focus on higher‑margin specialty tomato types and value‑added formats. Sources: INEGI/Banco de México via GCMA, FreshPlaza, FreshFruitPortal, OECD‑FAO Outlook 2025–2034, and USDA movement data summaries.([freshplaza.com](https://www.freshplaza.com/oceania/article/9806182/mexico-agricultural-exports-fall-to-us-20-97-billion-in-2025/?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [PROBLEM FRAMING] Mexican Pacific ports (Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas) – 2026 congestion, capacity & freight‑rate impacts === **System‑level port volumes & trends** - Mexican ports handled **248.7 million tonnes in 2025**, an **8.8% year‑on‑year decline**, indicating macro‑level weakness in bulk and some export flows.([mexicobusiness.news](https://mexicobusiness.news/logistics/news/port-volumes-remains-flat-container-trade-gains-momentum?utm_source=openai)) - Container volumes, however, **grew modestly**: Mexican ports moved **9.53 million TEU in 2025**, up **1.6% y/y**, reflecting a tilt toward higher‑value containerized trade even as overall tonnage fell.([tyt.com.mx](https://www.tyt.com.mx/nota/crece-carga-por-contenedores-en-puertos-y-alcanzan-9-5-millones-de-teus-en-2025?utm_source=openai)) - **Port of Manzanillo** remained Mexico’s leading container port, closing 2025 with **3.89 million TEU**, with major terminals including SSA Marine México (1.65m TEU), Contecon Manzanillo (1.55m), TIMSA (~356k) and Ocupa (~343k).([mexicobusiness.news](https://mexicobusiness.news/logistics/news/port-volumes-remains-flat-container-trade-gains-momentum?utm_source=openai)) - **Lázaro Cárdenas** is structurally one of Mexico’s top ports by total tonnage and a key container/auto hub; 2025 auto volumes there fell **17.3% y/y to 44,559 units**, suggesting some rerouting or demand weakness.([mexicobusiness.news](https://mexicobusiness.news/logistics/news/port-volumes-remains-flat-container-trade-gains-momentum?utm_source=openai)) **2025–26 congestion signals – Manzanillo & Lázaro Cárdenas** - A 2025/26 ocean‑freight market report focused on Mexico notes that **Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas are encountering delays of up to five days**, citing **congestion challenges** affecting supply chains and vessel schedules. These delays are attributed to a mix of stronger container flows, yard capacity constraints, and schedule disruptions from broader global shipping issues (e.g., Red Sea diversions).([frachtgroup.com](https://www.frachtgroup.com/en/document/439?utm_source=openai)) - Mexican business press in early 2026 points to **“stable but tight” container operations**: while no multi‑week meltdown is reported, recurring **yard and gate congestion** forces terminals and carriers to manage: - Higher dwell times for import and export boxes; - Periodic truck turn‑time blowouts; - Some vessel bunching, particularly after holidays or weather interruptions.([mexicobusiness.news](https://mexicobusiness.news/logistics/news/port-volumes-remains-flat-container-trade-gains-momentum?utm_source=openai)) - To address congestion, investments are under way: - **Hutchison Ports TIMSA** is investing **US$40.16 million** in a **15,000‑TEU off‑dock yard** near Manzanillo, including electric RTGs, specifically to **expand staging capacity and reduce port‑area congestion** and truck queuing.([mexicobusiness.news](https://mexicobusiness.news/logistics/news/port-volumes-remains-flat-container-trade-gains-momentum?utm_source=openai)) **Freight rates & capacity in 2026** - Global context: container shipping saw extreme rate spikes in 2024 due to Red Sea diversions, with East‑West spot rates up to **US$8,000–10,000/FEU** on some lanes and an elevated **US$3,000–5,000/FEU floor** even in low‑demand periods. These global dislocations have partially normalized but still **support higher floors** on Asia–Mexico and Mexico–USWC/USEC trade lanes moving through Manzanillo/Lázaro.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1p6jo8v/freightos_weekly_update_november_25_2025_excerpt/?utm_source=openai)) - 2025–26 Mexico‑focused ocean‑freight reports highlight:([frachtgroup.com](https://www.frachtgroup.com/en/document/439?utm_source=openai)) - Persistent **equipment imbalances** and longer container turn times at Manzanillo/Lázaro, tightening **effective capacity**. - Rate premiums for **guaranteed‑space products** and **priority services**; for exporters, these can run **US$300–800/FEU above base contracts** on key lanes when congestion is acute. - Higher **inland pre‑carriage costs** (truck and rail) into these ports due to both fuel prices and traffic congestion on key approach corridors. **Impacts on exporters & inland logistics** 1. **Exporters (agricultural and manufactured goods)** - **Schedule reliability risk:** 3–5‑day delays at port (vessel bunching, yard congestion) can undermine **just‑in‑time supply chains** and erode margins on seasonal or promotional shipments. For fresh/chilled foods (e.g., frozen berries, refrigerated avocados shipped to EU/Asia via Pacific ports), extra port dwell compresses remaining shelf‑life and forces more conservative shipment windows.([frachtgroup.com](https://www.frachtgroup.com/en/document/439?utm_source=openai)) - **Higher all‑in logistics costs:** Even when freight rates themselves are not spiking, exporters face: - Extra **storage, demurrage and detention**; - Premium surcharges for guaranteed loading; - Higher truck/rail rates to the ports due to congestion and fuel costs. - **Modal choice:** Some shippers with US‑bound cargo are **diverting from ocean via Manzanillo/Lázaro to all‑truck or rail‑truck via northern border crossings**, particularly for high‑value or time‑sensitive goods, even when that implies higher per‑unit freight spend, because it sidesteps port‑related unpredictability. 2. **Inland logistics and corridor utilization** - The push to build Lázaro Cárdenas as a **land bridge to the US Midwest** (via upgraded rail and highway links) is partly a response to **US West Coast port congestion**; however, the port’s own container and auto‑handling fluctuations (e.g., 17% drop in auto volumes in 2025) show that **network stability is still evolving**.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_L%C3%A1zaro_C%C3%A1rdenas?utm_source=openai)) - Congestion at Manzanillo spills back into inland logistics via: - **Longer truck queues at terminals** and appointment delays; - Repositioning problems for empties needed by exporters in states like Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato; - Knock‑on impacts on **rail schedules**, as trains are held or re‑sequenced to match berth and yard availability.([mexicobusiness.news](https://mexicobusiness.news/logistics/news/port-volumes-remains-flat-container-trade-gains-momentum?utm_source=openai)) - These constraints are particularly relevant for **inland exporters** who rely on these ports for **Asia‑bound shipments** of agri‑products (e.g., frozen fruit, processed foods) and manufactured goods. When congestion is acute, some exporters **re‑route via Gulf ports** or overland to US ports, accepting longer distance but potentially more reliable schedules. **Risk framing for 2026–27** - Mexican Pacific ports are not in crisis, but the combination of: - **Growing containerized trade** (1.6% y/y TEU growth in 2025), - **Infrastructure constraints inside port fences**, and - **Global disruptions that periodically re‑route services** creates a **structurally tighter environment** where even modest demand surges can cause **multi‑day delays**.([tyt.com.mx](https://www.tyt.com.mx/nota/crece-carga-por-contenedores-en-puertos-y-alcanzan-9-5-millones-de-teus-en-2025?utm_source=openai)) - For exporters, the key 2026–27 questions are: - How much **schedule risk** can their buyers tolerate? - Is there value in **re‑balancing flows** between Pacific ports, Gulf ports, and cross‑border trucking/rail? - What is the **premium they are willing to pay** (in US$/FEU or US$/tonne) for guaranteed space and priority handling when Manzanillo/Lázaro are congested? Sources: Mexican logistics trade press (TyT, Mexico Business News), 2025–26 ocean‑freight market reports, and global freight analyses referencing Mexico‑Pacific trade.([tyt.com.mx](https://www.tyt.com.mx/nota/crece-carga-por-contenedores-en-puertos-y-alcanzan-9-5-millones-de-teus-en-2025?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • | | Border Wait Time https://www.sandag.org/-/media/SANDAG/Documents/PDF/projects-and-programs/borders-and-interregional-collaboration/binational/economic-and-air-quality-impacts-of-delays-at-the-border-2017-10-31.pdf?utm_source=openai • Specialty Crops Market News Division https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sites/default/files/3466/2025-10-16/1279214/ams_3466_00254.pdf?utm_source=openai • Produce Alliance Report 4.16.2026 https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1soivv0/produce_alliance_report_4162026/?utm_source=openai • FREIGHTOS WEEKLY UPDATE - November 25, 2025 | Excerpt: “…US could enter a restocking cycle in 2026 as frontloaded inventories wind down. This restocking could mean stronger freight demand than some have anticipated for next year.” https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1p6jo8v/freightos_weekly_update_november_25_2025_excerpt/?utm_source=openai • BorderLive — Live U.S. land-border wait times. https://borderlive.us/?utm_source=openai • Nogales – DeConcini border wait time — live CBP data https://immigrationqueue.com/border/nogales-deconcini?utm_source=openai • PasaLaredo — Live Laredo, TX Border Crossing Wait Times https://pasalaredo.com/?utm_source=openai • | | Border Wait Time https://www.sandag.org/-/media/SANDAG/Documents/PDF/projects-and-programs/borders-and-interregional-collaboration/binational/economic-and-air-quality-impacts-of-delays-at-the-border-2017-10-31.pdf?utm_source=openai • Produce Alliance Report 4.23.26 https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1suvb1b/produce_alliance_report_42326/?utm_source=openai • Port Volumes Remains Flat, But Container Trade Gains Momentum https://mexicobusiness.news/logistics/news/port-volumes-remains-flat-container-trade-gains-momentum?utm_source=openai • BorderLive — Live U.S. land-border wait times. https://borderlive.us/?utm_source=openai • | | Border Wait Time https://www.sandag.org/-/media/SANDAG/Documents/PDF/projects-and-programs/borders-and-interregional-collaboration/binational/economic-and-air-quality-impacts-of-delays-at-the-border-2017-10-31.pdf?utm_source=openai • PasaLaredo — Live Laredo, TX Border Crossing Wait Times https://pasalaredo.com/?utm_source=openai • Mexico agricultural exports fall to US$20.97 billion in 2025 https://www.freshplaza.com/oceania/article/9806182/mexico-agricultural-exports-fall-to-us-20-97-billion-in-2025/?utm_source=openai • Mexico’s agricultural exports decline from January to October - KROM Aduanal https://grupokrom.com/en/customs-news/mexicos-agricultural-exports-decline-from-january-to-october/?utm_source=openai • Agriculture in Mexico https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Mexico?utm_source=openai • Mexico poised for a record avocado season in 2025–26 - FreshFruitPortal.com https://www.freshfruitportal.com/news/2026/01/20/mexico-avocado-season-26/?utm_source=openai • OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/07/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_3eb15914/601276cd-en.pdf?utm_source=openai • Specialty Crops Market News Division https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sites/default/files/3466/2025-10-16/1279214/ams_3466_00254.pdf?utm_source=openai • Produce Alliance Report 4.23.26 https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1suvb1b/produce_alliance_report_42326/?utm_source=openai • OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/07/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_3eb15914/601276cd-en.pdf?utm_source=openai • Mexico’s agricultural exports decline from January to October - KROM Aduanal https://grupokrom.com/en/customs-news/mexicos-agricultural-exports-decline-from-january-to-october/?utm_source=openai • Specialty Crops Market News Division https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/filerepo/sites/default/files/3466/2025-10-16/1279214/ams_3466_00254.pdf?utm_source=openai • Produce Alliance Report 4.23.26 https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1suvb1b/produce_alliance_report_42326/?utm_source=openai • Mexico’s agricultural exports decline from January to October - KROM Aduanal https://grupokrom.com/en/customs-news/mexicos-agricultural-exports-decline-from-january-to-october/?utm_source=openai