## Company Profile TOLL GLOBAL FORWARDING AB (Sweden) — Ocean freight forwarding arm of the Toll Group operating in Sweden. Likely focused on ocean FCL/LCL, feeder services into Gothenburg and Baltic ports, customs clearance and documentation support, and project/industrial cargo for exporters (contact title: Ocean). As a national office of a global forwarder it serves exporters in forest products (pulp, paper, timber), metals/steel, and automotive/machinery sectors and connects them to mainline and feeder networks via Gothenburg and continental hubs. ## Pain Points 1) Compliance & documentation burden from CBAM (2026): Toll’s industrial importer/exporter clients (steel/aluminium users, automotive suppliers, fertiliser importers) need emissions data, correct CN classification and reporting support. Missing data delays clearance and creates cash‑flow uncertainty. 2) Slot/equipment and routing risk on Asia–Europe/Baltic lanes: blank sailings, feeder imbalances and longer voyage times (Red Sea diversions) are tightening available space into Gothenburg/Baltic ports and increasing surcharges—customers need faster buyer matches or alternative markets to avoid costly demurrage and inventory buildup. 3) Market access & buyer diversification pressure for forest products and pulp/paper: US tariffs and softer Chinese demand mean Swedish exporters must find new buyers in the EU/US/MENA and adapt to changing price dynamics; forwarders are being asked for commercial market introductions beyond logistics. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. COMMODITY TRENDS – SWEDEN EXPORTS (PULP, PAPER, TIMBER, METALS, VEHICLES) AND DEMAND IN CHINA & EU, 2025–2026 OUTLOOK === **Overall export context and growth outlook** - Sweden’s goods exports in 2024 were dominated by 14 key SITC groups that account for ~85% of export value, including wood products, pulp & paper, machinery, vehicles, and metals.(Business Sweden) - The European Commission forecasts Sweden’s GDP growth to recover in 2025–2026 as domestic demand and investment pick up, but net trade is forecast to contribute only modestly to growth in 2026. - Business Sweden / EKN’s “Exportåret 2026” notes “cautious optimism” for exports in 2026, with tariffs and trade frictions (notably from the US) still weighing on industrial exporters. **Export structure – key sectors and trends** Statistics Sweden’s table of exports by major SITC groups (data through 2024, published Feb 27, 2026) provides hard volumes and growth rates: - **Pulp and waste paper** — Export value 2023: SEK 29.2 bn; 2024: SEK 29.7 bn (+1.4% nominal). 2024 growth in this group was slightly positive but described as “‑2” in one column (indicating a minor volume or price decline), suggesting flat to slightly weaker physical export volumes. - **Paper, paperboard and articles of pulp, paper and board** — Trading Economics (UN Comtrade) shows Swedish exports of “Paper and paperboard, articles of pulp, paper and board” to China at about USD 421m in 2025, within total exports to China of ~USD 7bn. - **Wood products (sawn timber, processed wood)** — Business Sweden’s “Global Export 2024” highlights wood products and pulp & paper among the sectors with the largest export setbacks in 2024, while machinery grew. Timber Online reports Sweden exported 2.5 million m³ of softwood lumber to the EU in 2025, up ~3% vs 2024; exports to China were 138,000 m³ in H1 2025, down 6% y/y, indicating shifting regional demand away from China and towards EU/US. - **Vehicles (passenger cars)** — Statistics Sweden: exports of passenger cars were SEK 133.2 bn in 2023 and 159.7 bn in 2024, but with a ‑17% change in the most recent period reported, indicating a substantial volume or price decline after a strong prior year. Tendata’s 2025 analysis suggests vehicles & transport equipment account for ~20% of Sweden’s export value and showed a ‑5–8% decline in 2025. - **Metals / basic industries** — Business Sweden notes that basic industries including wood products, petroleum products, and pulp & paper had the largest export setbacks in 2024, while machinery exports increased. SMM reports Swedish finished steel demand is expected to rise 3% in 2026 to 3.4m tonnes, supported by low industrial power prices in northern Sweden (€30–45/MWh vs EU average ~€95/MWh). **Forest products (pulp, paper, timber) – structure and destinations** - The forest industry (pulp, paper, sawn timber, board, packaging, refined wood products) generates SEK ~164–185 bn in annual export revenue and is heavily export‑oriented, with ~90% of pulp and paper and 75%+ of sawn wood production exported. - Swedish Forest Industries’ 2025 “snapshot” shows 2024 exports of about 8m tonnes of paper and board, with the EU internal market dominating and deliveries to China ~5% of total paper exports; rest of world (incl. US, MENA) providing diversification. - UNECE 2025 forest products outlook indicates pulp prices rose in spring 2025; Swedish pulp and paper exports to China had been “record high” in 2023 but fell back in 2024–2025 as Chinese demand normalized and local capacity increased. **Trade with China vs EU – demand patterns and 2026 implications** - **China** — Total Swedish exports to China were ~USD 7bn in 2025; forest products (paper, pulp, wood) and machinery/tech represent significant shares. Forest products: strong structural demand but some softening since the record levels of 2023. - **EU / intra‑EU market** — Business Sweden shows intra‑EU trade grew about 6% in 2025, slightly faster than exports overall, providing additional demand for EU‑produced goods – relevant for Sweden’s autos, forest products and metals. **2026 directional view by sector** - **Pulp & paper:** Flat to modestly positive export growth in value for 2024; 2025–2026 outlook shaped by stabilization in global pulp prices and incremental volume growth, but with US tariffs on EU pulp/paper (10–20%) depressing that market segment. - **Timber / sawn wood:** Timber export volumes to EU and US are growing modestly (~3% y/y to EU in 2025), while China volumes are slightly declining. Swedish sawmills benefit from relatively high timber prices and strong EU green‑construction and renovation demand. - **Metals (steel):** Expected 3% increase in finished steel consumption in Sweden in 2026, partly feeding domestic downstream exports (vehicles, machinery); low power prices support energy‑intensive steel and metals production for EU markets. - **Vehicles:** Facing headwinds: sectoral trade balances between Europe and the US/China deteriorated, with McKinsey noting pressure from Chinese EVs and changing US policy. For Swedish exporters, Tendata’s data implies continued mid‑single‑digit percentage declines (‑5–8%) in vehicle export value in 2025, likely carrying into early 2026. **Key implications for trade‑flow strategy** - Dependency on EU as main growth market will strengthen further in 2026 for forest products and metals, as China’s import growth moderates and new US trade barriers persist. - China remains critical for market pulp and selected high‑value paper grades, but Swedish exporters should expect more price‑sensitive, cyclical demand rather than structural volume growth. - Vehicles and some metal products are exposed to both global EV competition and new climate/trade policies (US tariffs, EU CBAM in upstream inputs), which will shape margins more than volumes in 2026. === 2. MARKET EVENTS – NORTHERN EUROPE / SWEDEN / BALTIC SEA CONTAINER SHIPPING 2025–2026 === **Throughput and network developments around Sweden** - Port of Gothenburg (Sweden’s main container hub) handled a record 934,000 TEU in 2025, up 4% y/y, the highest container volume in its history. Growth drivers cited: expanded deep‑sea service offering; congestion at other North European ports, diverting cargo; strong rail connectivity across Sweden feeding exports/imports through Gothenburg. - Increased deep‑sea calls at Gothenburg imply more direct mainline coverage (e.g., Asia–North Europe) and stronger Baltic feeder connections as shippers seek alternatives to congested Benelux / German gateways. **Global container market backdrop 2026** - Alphaliner’s Q1 2026 analysis: global container volumes up 2.8% y/y in Q1 2026; Red Sea diversions have mostly been operationally absorbed but still lengthen transit times on Asia–Europe routes and tie up capacity. Freight rates have stabilized but remain above pre‑pandemic levels. - Drewry’s preliminary Q1 2026 numbers show a 2.5% y/y increase in global container throughput and project full‑year 2026 growth of 3–4%, with ongoing volatility linked to geopolitical risks and capacity management (blank sailings). - The Drewry World Container Index stood around USD 1,900 per 40' in late Feb 2026, having fallen 1% week‑on‑week and declining for seven consecutive weeks – indicating softening spot rates after 2025 spikes. **Northern Europe / Baltic Sea dynamics** - The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) and Baltic Exchange data show container freight rates in early 2026 slightly higher than late 2025 but stable to mildly rising, driven by continued Red Sea diversions lengthening Asia–Europe routes and higher bunker and ETS‑related costs on EU legs. - Equipment and feeder imbalances increasingly affecting Asia–Europe and regional European networks, consistent with pressure on Baltic and North Sea feeder schedules and slot availability. - Stena Line’s 2026 surcharge sheet for Baltic Sea routes lists updated fairway dues, container handling fees (e.g., ~EUR 56–61 per unit/port) and surcharges for dangerous goods, over‑width loads, and no‑shows, indicating upward cost creep for regional Ro‑Ro / Ro‑Pax and containerized flows in the Baltic. **Lane‑specific indicative rate levels involving Sweden** - Shanghai–Gothenburg rates track Asia–North Europe averages, with recent spot levels approximately in the USD 1,800–2,200 per 40' range depending on service and date. Transit times are extended vs pre‑Red Sea‑crisis routings due to Cape diversions or re‑routings. **Capacity, congestion, and feeder services** - With global freight indices softening, carriers are re‑deploying some capacity out of North Europe/Med to higher‑yield trades and increasing blank sailings on weaker Asia–North Europe strings to protect rates; this compresses available space to North European hubs used by Sweden and can cascade into feeder capacity to Gothenburg and Baltic ports. - Red Sea disruptions still cause extended transit times and localised port congestion in early 2026, though severe bottlenecks have eased. Longer round voyages absorb 5–10% of effective capacity on Asia–Europe strings. **Implications for Swedish and Baltic shippers in 2026** - For Swedish shippers moving containers to/from Asia, spot rates in 2026 are well below 2021–22 peaks, but still above 2018–19 levels; feeder legs into/out of the Baltic add a premium over North Europe mainline port rates. - Reliability is improving vs 2025, but schedule changes and blank sailings are still common. Transit times for Asia–Sweden via Gothenburg remain elongated vs pre‑Red Sea but are more predictable than in late 2025. - Gothenburg’s record 2025 throughput and more extensive direct services improve resilience for Swedish exporters compared with routing via congested continental hubs. === 3. PROBLEM FRAMING – EU CBAM 2026 IMPACT ON SWEDISH EXPORTERS & FREIGHT FORWARDERS === **Regulatory status and timeline** - CBAM entered into a transitional phase on 1 October 2023, with report‑only obligations for imports of: iron & steel, cement, fertilizers, aluminium, electricity, and hydrogen (plus selected precursors). - The mechanism applies definitively from 1 January 2026, when importers must start surrendering CBAM certificates corresponding to embedded emissions, at a price linked to the EU ETS allowance price. - A December 17, 2025 Commission review and related Parliament note confirm a refined design for 2026–27, including clarified methodologies for calculating embedded emissions and adjusting for free allocations. The Council approved simplification measures including deferral of the obligation to purchase CBAM certificates for 2026 imports until February 2027. **Scope of Swedish exposure (by sector)** - CBAM applies on imports into the EU, but it indirectly affects Swedish exporters and freight forwarders in several ways: (1) Swedish companies importing CBAM goods become declarants and must report and surrender certificates; (2) downstream Swedish exporters face input cost uplifts; (3) future extensions may affect exporters of CBAM‑type goods. **Operational requirements for Swedish freight forwarders and logistics chains** - As of 1 January 2026 shipments containing CBAM goods require correct CN code classification, provision of embedded emissions data or default values, and confirmation that the EU importer is a registered CBAM declarant. - Forwarders need to upgrade systems for CBAM data fields in booking and customs documentation, and may offer CBAM advisory services (classification, origin/emissions documentation, certificate cost estimation). **Cost and price impacts – directionally relevant numbers** - Analyses suggest the average ad‑valorem equivalent of CBAM on non‑EU exporters to the EU is modest (~0.04% across all exports), but sector‑specific impacts (notably steel, cement, aluminium, fertilizers) can approach 1–2% of product value. - CBAM is expected to raise EU carbon prices and tighten the EU ETS, driving higher pass‑through costs on energy‑intensive materials used by Swedish industries. **Specific challenges for Swedish exporters** - Data and reporting complexity: need to collect plant‑level emissions data from non‑EU suppliers; where unavailable, EU importers must use default values, often higher than actual emissions, increasing effective CBAM costs. - Forest products themselves are not currently CBAM‑listed, but downstream substitution effects (wood vs steel) could benefit Swedish wood products as CBAM raises metal costs. - US tariffs (10–20%) on EU pulp & paper reduce Swedish pulp/paper competitiveness in the US, making EU and Asian markets relatively more important. **Practical framing for market participants in 2026** - Exporters should map use of CBAM‑relevant inputs, quantify input‑cost uplifts, and market low‑carbon substitution potential. - Freight forwarders should treat CBAM data‑handling and emissions documentation as a core compliance product and anticipate increased demand for origin‑shifting and supply‑chain redesign. Sources: Statistics Sweden SITC export table (2026‑02‑27); Swedish Forest Industries Federation (snapshot 2025); UNECE forest products outlook 2025; Business Sweden; Timber Online; Drewry; Alphaliner; Port of Gothenburg release; Freightos Baltic Index; Stena Line surcharge list; European Commission CBAM pages; DHL Freight Sweden CBAM note; IMF CBAM impact paper; various industry reports (2024–2026).