Research Intel
Hook Candidates
Angle A — “Act now on the 2026 ETS review: protect your margins and clients”
- Why it matters to PH AIR: imminent EU policy review (CORSIA/ETS) could force carbon costs onto all outbound flights after 2026; PH AIR’s long‑haul customers (flowers, seafood, premium veg) will need cost‑stable, carbon‑aware booking/fulfillment options now.
- Tridge Ark value: channel that originates exporters/importers into a managed delivery service that can surface carbon‑aware routings, consolidate demand, and lock in capacity and pricing across a global agent network.
Angle B — “Perishables peak capacity & customs friction: convert value growth into repeat bookings”
- Why it matters to PH AIR: Dutch horticulture and vegetable export values rose in 2025 while airtone is flat → premium perishables will compete hard for limited air capacity and face customs/phytosanitary delays.
- Tridge Ark value: provides origin sourcing + booking + documentation handling and links exporters to pre‑vetted carriers and handlers, enabling PH AIR to scale perishables flows without increasing back‑office load.
## Company Profile
PH AIR B.V. — profile (derived from lead data and category)
- Category: Freight forwarder (air specialist), registered in the Netherlands. Contact email points to sales@geldersforwarding.com (evidence link to Gelders Forwarding team), suggesting PH AIR operates as a Netherlands–based air freight forwarder handling shipments into/out of Schiphol and nearby regional airports.
- Likely services: air export/import bookings, consolidation, customs coordination, temperature‑sensitive handling (typical for Dutch forwarders working at Schiphol), and ad‑hoc freighter and belly bookings. Scale: not publicly disclosed in the lead; probable SME forwarder serving horticulture, seafood, and general cargo exporters and importers.
pain_points:
1) Capacity & pricing volatility at Schiphol: dedicated freighter movements have contracted (2025 freighter flights down ~2%; Schiphol cargo tonnage ‑4% in 2025 and flat/soft early 2026) while passenger recovery increases belly capacity — this creates mixed signals. PH AIR clients that rely on freighters (dense/outsized cargo, ad‑hoc perishables peaks) face tighter access and price volatility.
2) Rising carbon/regulatory cost risk: the EU ETS/CORSIA policy review due end‑2026 raises the real risk that carbon costs will be extended to all outbound flights, which would materially increase long‑haul air cargo costs. Forwarders must manage margin squeeze and advise customers on routing, surcharges, and carbon pass‑throughs.
3) Perishables customers need reliability + compliance: Dutch horticulture, vegetables and seafood exporters show value growth (CBS: agricultural exports €49.2bn in 2025; vegetables €9.4bn, horticulture +4% in 2025), but many higher‑value SKUs still require fast, temperature‑controlled airlift and fast customs/phytosanitary clearance — operational complexity that strains small forwarders.
hook_candidates (angles the outreach writer can use — tied to real market shifts):
Angle A — “Act now on the 2026 ETS review: protect your margins and clients”
- Signal: EU’s end‑2026 review of aviation emissions and debate about extending ETS to all outbound flights. If the ETS scope widens after 2026, long‑haul air cargo costs rise materially and forwarders’ customers (flowers, seafood, premium veg) will seek alternatives, consolidation, and contract certainty.
- Opportunity for PH AIR: originate exporter/importer business into a delivery channel (Tridge Ark) that secures competitive routings, cost‑transparent quotes (including carbon exposures), and alternative fulfillment via global agent network.
Angle B — “Perishables peak capacity & customs friction: convert value growth into repeat bookings”
- Signal: Dutch horticulture and vegetable export values rose in 2025 (+4% and +5.6% respectively) while Schiphol tonnage is flat, meaning higher‑value perishables will increasingly compete for limited belly/freighter space; customs/phytosanitary clearance is a bottleneck.
- Opportunity for PH AIR: use Tridge Ark as an outbound origination channel to connect growers/exporters with reliable, pre‑vetted air capacity and end‑to‑end fulfillment (booking + documentation + cold‑chain handlers), capturing more of the premium perishables flows without adding operational overhead.
intel_summary: "=== MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH ===
=== 1. DEMAND SIGNALS – EUROPE AIR CARGO & BELLY CAPACITY, FOCUS ON SCHIPHOL ===
**Macro demand & capacity direction into 2026**
- IATA’s December 2025 outlook projects **global air cargo demand (CTKs) rising ~2.6% in 2026**, after +3.1% in 2025, with yields broadly stable (‑0.5% vs 2025 but still ~30% above 2019). Europe is highlighted as the most profitable airline region, supported by strong long‑haul passenger demand and associated belly capacity. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-12-09-01/?utm_source=openai))
- ACI’s preliminary 2025 cargo statistics (released April 2026) indicate **global air cargo volumes up ~2.9% YoY in 2025 to ~128.9m tonnes**, about 8.8% above 2019, suggesting demand is now in a moderate growth/stabilisation phase rather than a sharp post‑COVID rebound. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_airports_by_cargo_traffic?utm_source=openai))
**Schiphol / Netherlands: cargo tonnage & structure**
- Schiphol Group’s 2025 results show:
- **Total cargo volume 2025:** **1.43 million tonnes**, **‑4% YoY** vs 2024. ([news.schiphol.com](https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-in-2025-quieter-aircraft-more-satisfied-travellers-and-solid-financial-results/?utm_source=openai))
- Dedicated freighter movements 2025: **~15,348 all‑cargo flights (‑2% YoY)**, with first‑half 2025 cargo tonnage ‑6.8% YoY and weaker load factors on freighters. ([air-journal.fr](https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-01-15-amsterdam-schiphol-franchit-les-688-millions-de-passagers-en-2025-et-renforce-son-rang-de-hub-europeen-5272166.html?utm_source=openai))
- Schiphol’s **official monthly cargo statistics for 2026** (January–April tables already published) confirm that:
- 2026 year‑to‑date tonnage is broadly **flat to slightly below** the same months of 2025, indicating **no major rebound yet** in pure volume but a stabilizing trend after the 2024–25 contraction. (Exact monthly tonnages are published in the tables; 2026 figures for each month sit close to 2025 comparables, with variations by <±5% for most months). ([schiphol.nl](https://www.schiphol.nl/en/cargo/cargo-statistics?utm_source=openai))
**Passenger recovery and belly capacity**
- Schiphol handled **68.8 million passengers in 2025**, up strongly vs 2024 and close to its pre‑COVID scale (2019). It ranked 4th in Europe by passenger volume and 3rd by movements. ([news.schiphol.com](https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-in-2025-quieter-aircraft-more-satisfied-travellers-and-solid-financial-results/?utm_source=openai))
- Schiphol forecasts **68–72 million passengers in 2026**, effectively maintaining or slightly increasing passenger activity, which should **grow available belly capacity** for cargo on wide‑body passenger flights. ([news.schiphol.com](https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-in-2025-quieter-aircraft-more-satisfied-travellers-and-solid-financial-results/?utm_source=openai))
- Air France‑KLM Martinair Cargo, the dominant cargo operator at AMS and CDG, has access to cargo holds on **417 passenger aircraft** in addition to 6 dedicated freighters. This underscores the structural importance of **belly capacity** for European air cargo, particularly out of hubs like Schiphol. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_KLM_Martinair_Cargo?utm_source=openai))
**Net effect on demand signals at Schiphol / Europe for 2026**
- Demand: global and European cargo demand is **growing modestly (~2–3% CTK in 2026)**, but Schiphol’s **physical tonnage is still slightly declining** (‑4% in 2025, flat‑to‑soft early 2026). This suggests:
- mix shift to **higher‑yield / time‑sensitive shipments** (e‑commerce, pharma, semiconductors) rather than bulk growth in tonnes; and
- partial diversion of freighter capacity to other EU hubs due to slot and noise constraints. ([news.schiphol.com](https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-in-2025-quieter-aircraft-more-satisfied-travellers-and-solid-financial-results/?utm_source=openai))
- Capacity: strong passenger recovery into 2026 increases **belly capacity**, which partially offsets the slight decline in dedicated freighter flights. For shippers in the Netherlands, this points to:
- **more options for lower‑density perishables and express cargo** in belly holds;
- continuing **tightness for outsized / dense freight** that relies on freighters, alongside persistent structural constraints on freighter slots at AMS.
**Implications for commodity shippers / perishables**
- With 2026 belly capacity rising and cargo tonnage flat, **load factors on cargo decks are easing slightly**, which:
- relieves some pressure on rates for general cargo;
- but high‑value, time‑critical commodities (fresh flowers, seafood, high‑value vegetables) are likely prioritized in belly space as airlines seek yield optimisation.
- For Dutch exporters, especially at Schiphol, this environment supports **secure lift for high‑value perishables**, but may mean **more volatile access and pricing for low‑margin or dense commodities** that compete with higher‑yield shipments for limited freighter capacity.
**Key data points (recap)**
- Global cargo 2025: **128.9m tonnes (+2.9% YoY; ~+8.8% vs 2019)**; 2026 CTK forecast **+2.6%**. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_airports_by_cargo_traffic?utm_source=openai))
- Schiphol cargo 2025: **1.43m tonnes (‑4% YoY)**, **15,348 freighter flights (‑2%)**. ([news.schiphol.com](https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-in-2025-quieter-aircraft-more-satisfied-travellers-and-solid-financial-results/?utm_source=openai))
- Schiphol passengers 2025: **68.8m**, forecast **68–72m in 2026** → more belly capacity. ([news.schiphol.com](https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-in-2025-quieter-aircraft-more-satisfied-travellers-and-solid-financial-results/?utm_source=openai))
- Air France‑KLM Martinair Cargo access: **417 passenger aircraft + 6 freighters** → heavy reliance on belly capacity. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_KLM_Martinair_Cargo?utm_source=openai))
=== 2. MARKET EVENTS – EU AVIATION CARBON RULES & IMPACT ON AIR FREIGHT RATES (FOCUS 2026, NETHERLANDS / EU) ===
**Regulatory baseline 2023–2026**
- The **revised EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) for aviation** keeps its **restricted geographic scope until end‑2026**, covering:
- flights **within the EEA**, and
- flights **from EEA to the UK and Switzerland**,
but *not yet* long‑haul flights to third countries. ([eur-lex.europa.eu](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1777564696834&uri=LEGISSUM%3Al28012&utm_source=openai))
- By **1 July 2026**, the European Commission must **assess CORSIA** (the ICAO Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) for environmental integrity and potentially propose changes – including whether to expand ETS scope to more international flights. ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-aviation_en?utm_source=openai))
- CORSIA’s **pilot (2021‑23) and first phase (2024‑26)** participation is voluntary; the EU has enacted legislation to implement CORSIA obligations for EU‑based operators while maintaining ETS for intra‑EEA segments. ([consilium.europa.eu](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/19/council-adopts-decision-on-offsetting-requirements-for-air-transport-emissions-corsia/pdf/?utm_source=openai))
**2026 policy debates with direct freight relevance**
- A March 2026 European Parliament briefing notes that the **aviation chapter of the EU ETS is now more ambitious than CORSIA**, and flags that relying on CORSIA for a large share of EU aviation emissions is problematic. It also highlights:
- potential **upward pressure on EUA prices** if aviation and maritime coverage expands;
- a mandatory **Commission report by end‑2026** on including more international aviation in ETS and options to align/merge with CORSIA. ([europarl.europa.eu](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2026/782615/EPRS_BRI%282026%29782615_EN.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- A March 2026 Transport & Environment (T&E) position paper finds that large network carriers (e.g. Lufthansa, Air France‑KLM) still receive substantial **free allowances**, covering **74–83%** of their emissions, meaning the **effective carbon cost in ticket / cargo pricing remains below the full ETS price signal** – but this free allocation will diminish over time. ([transportenvironment.org](https://www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/files/Aviation-ETS-March-2026-position-paper-6.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- Policy and media debates in April–May 2026 report that the Commission is **considering extending EU ETS to all outbound flights from the EU**, which would materially **raise carbon exposure for intercontinental cargo routes** (e.g., AMS–Asia, AMS–North America) if implemented post‑2026. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/sustainability/comments/1ta6elk/eu_weighs_adding_carbon_costs_to_outbound_flights/?utm_source=openai))
**Carbon cost levels and pass‑through to air freight**
- While precise 2026 EUA prices vary daily, recent analyses on EU carbon costs indicate:
- For sectors already fully exposed (e.g., shipping), ETS surcharges in 2026 are ~**6–7% of base freight rates** on EU‑related lanes, with potential to rise to 10–12% if base freight rates fall. ([shippingrates.org](https://shippingrates.org/blog/eu-ets-shipping-surcharge-2026?utm_source=openai))
- Aviation ETS coverage is currently narrower and partially shielded by free allocations, so **effective pass‑through in air fares and cargo rates is lower** than the shipping example – but it illustrates the magnitude once full pricing applies. ([transportenvironment.org](https://www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/files/Aviation-ETS-March-2026-position-paper-6.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- Forwarders in the Netherlands and across the EU typically apply **“ETS / environmental surcharges”** on air cargo invoices for intra‑EU legs; based on industry commentary and carrier tariff sheets, these are often:
- **low single‑digit percentage** uplifts on base airfreight rates for intra‑EEA sectors today;
- structured either as a **€ per kg surcharge** or a **% add‑on** indexed to carbon prices. (This is inferred from multiple carrier and forwarder tariff communications; exact values differ by airline and lane.)
**Impact on freight forwarders in the Netherlands (2026)**
- For Dutch freight forwarders moving cargo via Schiphol:
- **Intra‑EU air freight** (e.g. AMS–FRA/BCN) already **fully faces ETS costs**; surcharges are largely unavoidable and increasingly standardised.
- **Long‑haul air freight** (e.g. AMS–NBO, AMS–SIN, AMS–JFK) currently **faces limited direct ETS cost** (only for the intra‑EEA segment and CORSIA offsets), but:
- carriers may **spread carbon costs across their network**;
- a future expansion of ETS to all outbound flights after the 2026 review would sharply **raise carbon‑driven cost pressure on long‑haul cargo**. ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-aviation_en?utm_source=openai))
- T&E’s March 2026 briefing stresses that as free allowances decline and scope potentially widens, **unit carbon costs per tonne‑km for aviation will rise**, increasing incentives for:
- **modal shift** (air → road/rail/sea) where time‑to‑market allows;
- **routing via non‑EU hubs** to reduce ETS exposure if regulatory asymmetries persist. This is particularly relevant for long‑haul cargo from the Netherlands that could be re‑routed via, for example, Istanbul or Gulf hubs. ([transportenvironment.org](https://www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/files/Aviation-ETS-March-2026-position-paper-6.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**2026 outlook for air freight rates**
- Combining IATA’s yield outlook and EU carbon policy trajectory:
- **Base air cargo yields in 2026** are expected to remain **~30% above 2019**, with only a **‑0.5% nominal change vs 2025**. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-12-09-01/?utm_source=openai))
- On top of this, **carbon‑related surcharges** (ETS + CORSIA) for EU‑involved sectors will:
- remain **modest but rising** in 2026, particularly for intra‑EU trade;
- likely add **low‑single‑digit %** to all‑in rates today, with the risk of **mid‑single‑digit % impacts** on some lanes as free allocations phase down and if ETS scope expands after the 2026 review.
- For Dutch exporters and forwarders, carbon policy is thus transitioning from a **marginal surcharge** to a **material cost driver** in long‑term contracts for 2027 onwards, especially if the Commission follows through on proposals to cover all outbound flights.
**Key regulatory data points (recap)**
- **EU ETS aviation scope:** intra‑EEA + flights to UK/CH, restricted until **end‑2026**. ([eur-lex.europa.eu](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1777564696834&uri=LEGISSUM%3Al28012&utm_source=openai))
- **CORSIA:** pilot (2021‑23), first phase (2024‑26, voluntary), EU implementing via ETS law. ([consilium.europa.eu](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/19/council-adopts-decision-on-offsetting-requirements-for-air-transport-emissions-corsia/pdf/?utm_source=openai))
- **2026 reviews:**
- CORSIA integrity report due **by 1 July 2026**;
- wider ETS aviation assessments and potential proposals by **end‑2026**. ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-aviation_en?utm_source=openai))
- **Airline free allowance coverage:** examples of major carriers with **74–83% of emissions covered by free allowances** in recent periods. ([transportenvironment.org](https://www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/files/Aviation-ETS-March-2026-position-paper-6.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- **Indicative ETS‑style surcharge magnitude (shipping benchmark 2026):** ~**6–7% of base rates** on EU‑touching routes at current carbon prices. ([shippingrates.org](https://shippingrates.org/blog/eu-ets-shipping-surcharge-2026?utm_source=openai))
=== 3. COMMODITY TRENDS – NETHERLANDS PERISHABLES EXPORTS & SCHIPHOL PERISHABLES (FLOWERS, SEAFOOD, VEGETABLES, 2025–26) ===
**Netherlands agri‑export performance (value, 2025)**
- CBS and Wageningen Economic Research report **total Dutch agricultural exports of €49.2 billion in 2025**, **+8.1% in value vs 2024**. ([cbs.nl](https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2026/03/value-of-agricultural-exports-up-by-over-8-percent-in-2025?utm_source=openai))
- **Vegetable exports:** €9.4bn in 2025 vs €8.9bn in 2024 (**+5.6%**).
- **Horticulture (bulbs, cut flowers, plants, nursery products):** value **+4% YoY** in 2025. ([cbs.nl](https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2026/03/value-of-agricultural-exports-up-by-over-8-percent-in-2025?utm_source=openai))
- These statistics are **mode‑agnostic** (sea, road, air), but for **high‑value, time‑sensitive horticulture and fresh produce**, airfreight via Schiphol and regional airports remains critical to long‑haul markets (e.g., North America, Middle East, East Asia).
**Schiphol’s role in perishables chains**
- Schiphol explicitly positions itself as a **global hub for food and flowers**, highlighting:
- dedicated **Food & Flower logistical cluster**, with temperature‑controlled facilities and specialized handlers;
- strong flower corridor from **Kenya–Netherlands**, “reinforcing the air bridge to ensure Schiphol stays the world’s top flower‑trading centre.” ([schiphol.nl](https://www.schiphol.nl/en/cargo/food-and-flowers-articles?utm_source=openai))
- Perishables passing through Schiphol include:
- **cut flowers** (notably from East Africa and Latin America);
- **fresh vegetables and fruits** (e.g., Kenyan beans, berries, exotics);
- **seafood** (fresh fish and shellfish for EU and onward distribution). These are typically high‑value, cold‑chain commodities reliant on rapid transport.
**Volumes & mode shifts: air vs sea / road**
- While Schiphol’s total cargo tonnage declined **‑4% in 2025** and remains flat‑to‑soft in early 2026, CBS data show **continued value growth in horticulture and vegetables**, implying:
- ongoing **modal optimisation** – higher share of long‑haul perishables moving by **sea in refrigerated containers** where shelf‑life allows (especially flowers and vegetables into North America and Asia);
- **airfreight increasingly reserved for premium and time‑critical segments** (high‑end bouquets, just‑in‑time retail programs, high‑value seafood).
- Sector analyses around Dutch floriculture (2024–25) already identified **greater use of sea freight** for some flower supply chains; the continued 2025 value growth with stagnant air tonnage supports this gradual shift. (This conclusion is inferential but consistent with the data and industry commentary.)
**2026 operational environment at Schiphol for perishables**
- Schiphol expects stable or slightly higher passenger volumes (68–72m) in 2026, increasing **belly‑hold options for temperature‑sensitive cargo** on wide‑body passenger aircraft to key markets. ([news.schiphol.com](https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-in-2025-quieter-aircraft-more-satisfied-travellers-and-solid-financial-results/?utm_source=openai))
- At the same time, overall freight capacity is constrained by:
- **limited growth or slight decline in freighter movements**;
- **noise and slot restrictions**, which particularly affect ad‑hoc or night‑time freighter operations that many perishables shippers historically relied on. ([air-journal.fr](https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-01-15-amsterdam-schiphol-franchit-les-688-millions-de-passagers-en-2025-et-renforce-son-rang-de-hub-europeen-5272166.html?utm_source=openai))
- Schiphol’s cargo team emphasises **customs and phytosanitary compliance** as a critical component of perishables flows (protecting EU flora and fauna), implying continued need for:
- **high‑reliability cold‑chain handling**;
- **tight coordination with NVWA/customs** for fast clearance of plant and animal products. ([schiphol.nl](https://www.schiphol.nl/en/cargo/cargo-statistics?utm_source=openai))
**Commodities-specific trend signals (flowers, seafood, vegetables)**
- **Flowers & plants:**
- Export value up **~4% in 2025**;
- Airfreight continues central role from East Africa and Latin America to Dutch auctions and re‑export hubs, but incremental growth is partially absorbed by **reefer sea freight**, especially to markets with longer planning cycles. ([cbs.nl](https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2026/03/value-of-agricultural-exports-up-by-over-8-percent-in-2025?utm_source=openai))
- **Fresh vegetables:**
- Export value up **~5.6% in 2025**, consistent with strong greenhouse production and re‑export of imported produce via Dutch logistics hubs. ([cbs.nl](https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2026/03/value-of-agricultural-exports-up-by-over-8-percent-in-2025?utm_source=openai))
- For long‑distance markets, higher‑margin or short‑shelf‑life lines (e.g., fine beans, herbs, pre‑packed salads) still rely heavily on **airfreight**, while commodity vegetables to Europe move by **road/sea**.
- **Seafood:**
- No 2026 mode‑specific Schiphol seafood tonnage breakdown is yet published, but:
- The Netherlands functions as a key **seafood distribution hub** (salmon, whitefish, shellfish) for EU markets;
- seafood is among the **most time‑sensitive perishables** and therefore structurally tied to **airfreight** for long‑haul imports/exports (e.g., fresh salmon and high‑end fish to Asia and North America). Based on the general cargo contraction and stable value growth in agro‑exports, seafood air volumes are likely **broadly stable** but pressured by capacity constraints and carbon‑linked cost increases.
**Price & cost environment for perishables by air**
- With global cargo yields still **~30% above 2019** and only marginally easing in 2026, Dutch perishables shippers face **structurally higher airfreight costs** than pre‑COVID. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-12-09-01/?utm_source=openai))
- EU carbon pricing (ETS + CORSIA) adds:
- **incremental surcharges** on intra‑EU and some long‑haul legs;
- growing **pressure to decarbonise supply chains** (e.g., via SAF use, modal shift, consolidation, or pricing premiums for “green” logistics). ([climate.ec.europa.eu](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-aviation_en?utm_source=openai))
**Implications for 2026–27 market intelligence**
- **Flowers and plants:**
- Expect **continued value growth** but a **gradual shift of volume growth to sea freight**, with airfreight focused on high‑value SKUs and peak‑season capacity.
- **Vegetables & high‑value fresh produce:**
- Airfreight demand is **sticky** for ultra‑fresh and premium items, but **cost‑sensitive growers and retailers** will look to alternative routings (e.g., via less‑regulated hubs) or modes where quality allows.
- **Seafood:**
- Air remains crucial for freshness; demand is linked to **high‑end foodservice and retail**. Any tightening of ETS scope after 2026 would **disproportionately impact seafood and high‑end perishables** shipped by air due to limited modal alternatives at equivalent service levels.
**Key data points (recap)**
- Dutch agricultural exports 2025: **€49.2bn (+8.1% YoY)**.
- Vegetables: **€9.4bn (vs €8.9bn, +5.6%)**.
- Horticulture (flowers, bulbs, plants): **+4%** value growth. ([cbs.nl](https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2026/03/value-of-agricultural-exports-up-by-over-8-percent-in-2025?utm_source=openai))
- Schiphol cargo 2025: **1.43m tonnes (‑4% YoY)**, with **freighter flights ‑2%**; early 2026 tonnage ≈ flat vs 2025 months. ([news.schiphol.com](https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-in-2025-quieter-aircraft-more-satisfied-travellers-and-solid-financial-results/?utm_source=openai))
- Schiphol positioning: **“world’s top flower‑trading centre”** with dedicated Food & Flower cluster and Kenya–Netherlands air bridge. ([schiphol.nl](https://www.schiphol.nl/en/cargo/food-and-flowers-articles?utm_source=openai))
- Global air cargo yields 2026: **~30% above 2019**, ~**‑0.5% vs 2025**. ([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-12-09-01/?utm_source=openai))
Sources:
• IATA - Airline Profitability Stabilizes with 3.9% Net Margin Expected in 2026
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-12-09-01/?utm_source=openai
• List of busiest airports by cargo traffic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_airports_by_cargo_traffic?utm_source=openai
• Schiphol in 2025: quieter aircraft, more satisfied travellers and solid financial results
https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-in-2025-quieter-aircraft-more-satisfied-travellers-and-solid-financial-results/?utm_source=openai
• Amsterdam-Schiphol franchit les 68,8 millions de passagers en 2025 et renforce son rang de hub européen | Air Journal
https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-01-15-amsterdam-schiphol-franchit-les-688-millions-de-passagers-en-2025-et-renforce-son-rang-de-hub-europeen-5272166.html?utm_source=openai
• Schiphol | Traffic and transport figures per month
https://www.schiphol.nl/en/cargo/cargo-statistics?utm_source=openai
• Schiphol in 2025: quieter aircraft, more satisfied travellers and solid financial results
https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-in-2025-quieter-aircraft-more-satisfied-travellers-and-solid-financial-results/?utm_source=openai
• Air France KLM Martinair Cargo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_KLM_Martinair_Cargo?utm_source=openai
• EU emissions trading system | EUR-Lex
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1777564696834&uri=LEGISSUM%3Al28012&utm_source=openai
• Reducing emissions from aviation
https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-aviation_en?utm_source=openai
• Council adopts decision on offsetting requirements for air transport emissions (CORSIA)
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/19/council-adopts-decision-on-offsetting-requirements-for-air-transport-emissions-corsia/pdf/?utm_source=openai
• BRIEFING
Towards climate neutrality
Revision o
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2026/782615/EPRS_BRI%282026%29782615_EN.pdf?utm_source=openai
• BRIEFING - MARCH 2026
https://www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/files/Aviation-ETS-March-2026-position-paper-6.pdf?utm_source=openai
• EU weighs adding carbon costs to outbound flights
https://www.reddit.com/r/sustainability/comments/1ta6elk/eu_weighs_adding_carbon_costs_to_outbound_flights/?utm_source=openai
• EU ETS Shipping Surcharge 2026: What It Costs — ShippingRates
https://shippingrates.org/blog/eu-ets-shipping-surcharge-2026?utm_source=openai
• BRIEFING - MARCH 2026
https://www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/files/Aviation-ETS-March-2026-position-paper-6.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Reducing emissions from aviation
https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport-decarbonisation/reducing-emissions-aviation_en?utm_source=openai
• BRIEFING - MARCH 2026
https://www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/files/Aviation-ETS-March-2026-position-paper-6.pdf?utm_source=openai
• EU ETS Shipping Surcharge 2026: What It Costs — ShippingRates
https://shippingrates.org/blog/eu-ets-shipping-surcharge-2026?utm_source=openai
• Value of agricultural exports up by over 8 percent in 2025 | CBS
https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2026/03/value-of-agricultural-exports-up-by-over-8-percent-in-2025?utm_source=openai
• Value of agricultural exports up by over 8 percent in 2025 | CBS
https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2026/03/value-of-agricultural-exports-up-by-over-8-percent-in-2025?utm_source=openai
"
## Pain Points
## Intel Summary