## Company Profile Hankyu Hanshin Express (HHE) — France / EMEA (freight forwarder) Profile summary: - Global Japanese–origin freight forwarder with an established EMEA footprint (HHE EMEA) and operations serving France. Offers full freight forwarding and logistics services: ocean and air freight, road/FTL/LTL, multimodal solutions, customs brokerage support, warehousing and contract logistics. Positions itself on Asia–Europe trade lanes and supports exporters/importers across manufacturing, retail/e‑commerce, and food & beverage segments. - Market position & scale: regional EMEA arm of a larger Hankyu Hanshin logistics group; medium-to-large forwarder with direct access to Asian carrier networks and capacity procurement capabilities. Active in time‑sensitive premium logistics (air and sea‑air), and increasingly providing value‑added customs and compliance advisory to European clients. ## Pain Points 1) Immediate corridor disruption and commercial pressure: Asia–Europe rerouting (Red Sea & now Strait of Hormuz) has increased lead times, produced episodic 100–250% war‑risk/rerouting surcharges and higher insurance exposure. HHE’s exporter/importer clients need rapid alternative routing, contingency air/sea‑air solutions, and transparent landed‑cost calculations (including ETS/war‑risk/CBAM). Without a quick execution channel, HHE risks losing customers to forwarders who can deliver turnkey contingency sourcing and capacity. 2) Regulatory & compliance burden (CBAM, ETS, customs digitalization): The CBAM definitive regime (Jan 1, 2026) and EU customs Single Window require verified emissions reporting, CBAM account registration, and integrated electronic filings. Many shippers lack verified supplier emissions data and HHE may be asked to provide CBAM filings or advisory services — creating IT, data‑collection and service capacity demands. 3) Modal/margin strain and e‑commerce growth: Clients increasingly demand multi‑modal options (fast ocean, sea‑air, air) and near‑shoring alternatives, while margins are compressed by surcharges and price volatility. HHE needs scalable sourcing and supplier‑engagement tools to serve smaller export clients and e‑commerce brands that expect quick turnarounds. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] Europe–Asia container and air freight market 2026, Red Sea rerouting & impact on freight forwarders in France === **Structural rerouting and network changes (Europe–Asia)**n- Since late‑2023, persistent attacks in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden have driven a structural shift of Asia–Europe container services away from Suez to the Cape of Good Hope. By June 2024, Suez transits of dry bulk were down nearly **80% YoY**, while cargo via the Cape of Good Hope was up about **74%** vs normal levels, indicating a major and continuing re‑routing of Europe–Asia flows. ([atlanticcouncil.org](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai)) - Industry reports in 2025 describe several major lines (e.g., Maersk, MSC and partners) designating the Cape route as a **“permanent primary route”** for many Asia–Europe loops in 2025–26, rather than a temporary diversion. This locks in longer transit times and higher fuel and insurance exposure into planning horizons through 2026. ([ports.marinelink.com](https://ports.marinelink.com/ports/port/sausalito/news/red-sea-crisis-prompts-permanent-rerouting-for-key-asia-europe-services?utm_source=openai)) **Transit times, fuel and emissions impact** - Rerouting around southern Africa typically extends voyages by **50–60% in distance**, adding **10–14 days** to a Far East–Northern Europe round trip, depending on service speed and port rotations. ([atlanticcouncil.org](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai)) - The Atlantic Council estimates rerouted ships emit roughly **40% more CO₂ per voyage** vs the Suez route, a factor that will increasingly matter under EU ETS for shipping and French shippers’ Scope 3 reporting. ([atlanticcouncil.org](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai)) **Rate shock and surcharges (2024–2025) with knock‑on effects into 2026** - During the first phase of the Red Sea crisis (Dec 2023–Q1 2024), Drewry’s WCI spot rates for Asia–Europe 40’ containers jumped from **US$1,661 (21 Dec 2023) to US$3,777 (18 Jan 2024)**, a **~127% increase in under a month**; long‑haul Asia–Europe rates were reported as “more than doubled”. ([ismworld.org](https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/news-publications/inside-supply-management-magazine/blog/2024/2024-01/red-sea-shipping-turmoil-a-nightmare-situation/?utm_source=openai)) - French market sources in early 2026 report carriers and NVOCCs applying **war‑risk and rerouting surcharges of +100–250%** on base container prices for affected corridors, plus several‑thousand‑dollar per‑box add‑ons on some contracts. Insurance specialists warn war‑risk premiums may increase **5–10×** relative to pre‑crisis levels, with higher deductibles and reduced cover. ([lemonde.fr](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/03/05/with-the-strait-of-hormuz-blocked-regional-trade-disruptions-could-ripple-across-the-globe_6751117_19.html?utm_source=openai)) - While container markets became structurally oversupplied by 2025 due to large newbuilding deliveries, the continued diversions in 2025–26 have absorbed capacity and kept **Asia–Europe spot rates structurally above 2019 baselines**, even as other trades softened. Freightos and S&P Global frame this as an overcapacity market with **episodic rate spikes** tied to geopolitical risks (Red Sea, now also Strait of Hormuz). ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **2026 security overlay: Strait of Hormuz & Red Sea** - In March 2026, Le Monde reports the **Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked** due to conflict, with Maersk establishing **new routes bypassing both Hormuz and Bab al‑Mandab**, further complicating fuel bunkering and network design for Asia–Europe and Europe–Middle East trades. The CEO notes the operation comes with “high additional costs” and strained fuel logistics in Asia. ([lemonde.fr](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/03/11/vincent-clerc-ceo-of-shipping-company-maersk-in-asia-and-the-middle-east-our-fuel-supply-points-risk-running-dry_6751330_19.html?utm_source=openai)) - French marine insurance experts highlight continued surcharges (war‑risk and rerouting) being passed through to shippers and forwarders, with some shipowners asking charterers to directly share war‑risk premiums or even sailing uninsured on specific legs. ([lemonde.fr](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/03/05/with-the-strait-of-hormuz-blocked-regional-trade-disruptions-could-ripple-across-the-globe_6751117_19.html?utm_source=openai)) **Implications specifically for freight forwarders in France (2024–2026)** - French freight forwarders serving export‑import flows with Asia have had to: - **Re‑design routings**: Systematic use of Cape‑of‑Good‑Hope routings for Asia–North Europe and Asia–Med; increased use of **transshipment in safe hubs** (e.g., Mediterranean and West African hubs) to avoid high‑risk legs. ([ports.marinelink.com](https://ports.marinelink.com/ports/port/sausalito/news/red-sea-crisis-prompts-permanent-rerouting-for-key-asia-europe-services?utm_source=openai)) - **Re‑price long‑term contracts**: Contracts signed in 2023–24 have seen mid‑term renegotiations to share unexpected war‑risk & fuel surcharges; French shippers report surcharges sometimes matched or exceeded base freight on Asia–Europe lanes. ([lemonde.fr](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/03/05/with-the-strait-of-hormuz-blocked-regional-trade-disruptions-could-ripple-across-the-globe_6751117_19.html?utm_source=openai)) - **Shift mode/route mix**: For time‑sensitive flows, some French exporters (high‑value machinery, pharma, fashion) temporarily **shifted from ocean to air** or hybrid sea‑air solutions via Gulf and Mediterranean hubs to circumvent Red Sea chokepoints; forwarders positioned this as a premium product despite higher CO₂. ([freightos.com](https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/freightos-news/what-2025-means-for-2026-ocean-and-air-freight-forecast/?utm_source=openai)) - **Reallocate risk internally**: Broking of war‑risk and marine insurance now central in French forwarders’ value proposition; they must manage exposure to 5–10× higher premiums, increased deductibles, and contractual debates over “force majeure” and delay liabilities. ([lemonde.fr](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/03/05/with-the-strait-of-hormuz-blocked-regional-trade-disruptions-could-ripple-across-the-globe_6751117_19.html?utm_source=openai)) **Directional view 2026–27 for Europe–Asia trade via France** - Industry outlooks for 2026 foresee **slightly softer average Europe–Asia rates vs the 2024–25 peaks**, due to ongoing fleet growth and potential easing of some security risks, but **continued volatility**: S&P Global projects global trade volume growth of only **~1.7%** in 2026, yet notes that security disruptions will keep the Asia–Europe corridor prone to sharp, temporary spikes. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - For French forwarders, this means planning around: - Structurally **longer lead times** on Asia trades (baseline +10–14 days). - **Higher base costs** v. pre‑2023, with war‑risk components now considered quasi‑structural in pricing models. - Elevated importance of **capacity procurement strategy** (fixed long‑term vs index‑linked contracts; multi‑carrier portfolio) to manage spike risk on Europe–Asia routes. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [DEMAND SIGNALS] Air & ocean freight capacity and rate trends 2026 – France exporters/importers, e‑commerce, near‑shoring & rail === **Global and European ocean freight demand & capacity context (leading into 2026)**n- S&P Global’s 2026 outlook points to global container trade growth of about **1.7% in 2026**, slower than historical averages, while vessel capacity continues to expand due to orderbook deliveries. This entrenches **structural overcapacity**, especially on main east–west trades. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - Freightos’ 2026 forecast notes that even with continued Red Sea diversions absorbing capacity in 2025–26, the global container market is **“significantly oversupplied”**. New megaships delivered post‑2023 are outpacing trade growth, especially on Asia–Europe and Transpacific. ([freightos.com](https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/freightos-news/what-2025-means-for-2026-ocean-and-air-freight-forecast/?utm_source=openai)) - Implication for France: French exporters/importers on Asia–Europe routes benefit from **moderating base rates** compared with the 2024 spike, but volatility from geopolitical risk and surcharges remains. Rate conditions on **North Europe–Mediterranean/short‑sea** leg serving France are comparatively looser as carriers cascade larger vessels onto secondary trades. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **Rate trends: ocean freight into/out of France for 2026** (France‑specific forecasts are typically embedded in broader EU/North Europe assessments.) - Market outlooks indicate: - **Contract rates** for Asia–North Europe/Med expected to **trend 15–30% below 2024 peaks** on average in 2026, but still above 2019 levels due to higher fuel/environmental costs and ongoing Red Sea risk premia (inferred from lane‑level commentary). ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - **Spot market** expected to remain more volatile than pre‑COVID as carriers repeatedly adjust capacity to geopolitical disruptions; Red Sea/Hormuz issues can still drive **short‑term spikes of 50–100%** on benchmark Asia–Europe lanes when diversions intensify. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **Air freight demand, capacity and pricing – with relevance to France** - Freightos reports that international air cargo volumes grew about **11% YoY in 2024**, driven largely by cross‑border B2C e‑commerce from China to the EU and US, then shifted to a more moderate **~4% growth rate** for global volumes YTD October 2025. Asia–Europe and intra‑Asia lanes posted **double‑digit annual growth** in 2024–25 as Chinese exporters diversified away from the US. ([freightos.com](https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/freightos-news/what-2025-means-for-2026-ocean-and-air-freight-forecast/?utm_source=openai)) - De‑minimis exemptions and simplified import regimes in the EU and US have underpinned **surging low‑value parcels shipped by air**, especially for fast‑fashion, consumer electronics and small household goods. For France, this supports continuous high utilization of belly‑hold cargo capacity into Paris CDG and other hubs, with integrators and postal operators heavily exposed. ([freightos.com](https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/freightos-news/what-2025-means-for-2026-ocean-and-air-freight-forecast/?utm_source=openai)) - Outlook for 2026: - Air cargo demand expected to **grow but at single‑digit rates** (around mid‑single‑digit globally), with e‑commerce still the main driver. - Capacity growth from new widebody passenger aircraft deliveries into European carriers helps **cap rate inflation**, though yields remain above 2019, especially during periods when shippers shift urgent ocean cargo to air because of Red Sea/Hormuz disruptions. ([freightos.com](https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/freightos-news/what-2025-means-for-2026-ocean-and-air-freight-forecast/?utm_source=openai)) **France exporters/importers: modal and geographic demand shifts** - **Exporters (France → Asia/ROW)** - High‑value industrial goods, luxury products, wine & spirits continue to rely heavily on ocean but with **greater use of premium ocean (faster, more reliable services)** and **backup air options** baked into logistics plans for 2026, reflecting lessons from 2023–25 disruptions. - Customers are more willing to pay for **predictability over minimum cost**, supporting demand for stable contract capacity with large forwarders based in France. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) - **Importers (Asia → France)** - Retail, fashion, and electronics importers continue to split flows between standard ocean, **fast ocean** (priority services via safer hubs), and air. E‑commerce platforms operating in France (including Chinese cross‑border retailers) maintain high volumes via air and air‑express because de‑minimis and fast delivery expectations remain key competitive levers. ([freightos.com](https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/freightos-news/what-2025-means-for-2026-ocean-and-air-freight-forecast/?utm_source=openai)) **Near‑shoring and regionalization signals (relevant to France)** - European policy and corporate sourcing strategies since 2023 show a **progressive tilt toward near‑shoring to Southern/Eastern Europe and North Africa**, particularly in automotive components, textiles, and some FMCG categories. This doesn’t fully replace Asia, but **shifts marginal growth** to intra‑European and Med corridors where transit times are shorter and geopolitics slightly less acute. ([atlanticcouncil.org](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai)) - For French forwarders, this supports: - More demand for **short‑sea and Ro‑Ro** services between France and Mediterranean/Atlantic ports (Spain, Italy, Morocco, Tunisia). - Increased relevance of **road and combined transport** on intra‑EU lanes rather than pure deep‑sea from Asia for incremental growth. **Rail & multimodal corridor growth (Europe–Asia and intra‑EU)** - While current geopolitical disruptions in Eastern Europe and Russia constrain traditional **China–EU rail via Russia/Belarus**, operators have explored **Middle Corridor** alternatives (through Central Asia/Caspian/Black Sea). Volumes remain a **small single‑digit percentage of Asia–Europe trade** but have grown from a very low base after 2022. Rail is mostly used for specific high‑value segments (electronics, automotive parts) where time‑definite delivery matters. ([atlanticcouncil.org](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai)) - For France, these rail options are indirect (typically terminating in Germany/Poland and then trucking to France). As of 2025–26, rail is still **niche** compared with ocean and air for France‑Asia trade, but it features more frequently in contingency planning and as a differentiated service by large forwarders based in France. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) **Key demand signals for 2026 strategy (France)** - Expect: - **Ocean**: Softer average rates but continued **volatility spikes**; capacity ample, but schedule reliability subject to conflict risk. - **Air**: Sustained demand from e‑commerce; yields above pre‑COVID but under 2021–22 highs; capacity rising. - **Modal mix**: French customers showing higher structural appetite for **multi‑modal and flexible routing** (ocean+air, different gateways) to hedge disruption. - **Near‑shoring**: Gradual increase in intra‑EU and EU–Med volumes that partially offsets risk on Asia deep‑sea corridors. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [TIMING SIGNALS] EU regulations 2026 affecting freight forwarders – CBAM, ETS Shipping, Customs Digitalization (France focus) === **3.1 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – 2026 milestones** **Regulatory status & timing** - CBAM entered a **transitional reporting phase on 1 October 2023**, requiring importers to report embedded emissions in selected carbon‑intensive goods (iron & steel, cement, fertilizers, aluminium, electricity, hydrogen and some downstream products) without financial adjustment. ([eur-lex.europa.eu](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=legissum%3A4696271&utm_source=openai)) - The **definitive regime took effect on 1 January 2026**. From this date: - Only authorised CBAM declarants (importers or their indirect customs representatives) may import covered goods above a 50‑tonne threshold. - They must hold a **CBAM account number** and purchase/submit CBAM certificates to cover embedded emissions, adjusted to the level of free ETS allocation phase‑out. ([taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_bg?etrans=sl&utm_source=openai)) - An OECD brief (2025) estimates CBAM will cover about **303 specific CN/HS codes** and influence roughly **3% of total extra‑EU import value** once fully in force. ([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/03/what-to-expect-from-the-eu-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_a21e9b51/719d2ff9-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - In June 2025, the Council and Parliament reached a deal on **simplifying and strengthening CBAM**, amending Regulation (EU) 2023/956. The political agreement (awaiting formal adoption) streamlines calculation and verification rules and clarifies the interface with ETS free allocation phase‑out—changes that will apply into 2026–27. ([consilium.europa.eu](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/06/18/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam-council-and-parliament-strike-a-deal-on-its-simplification/pdf/?utm_source=openai)) **Operational impact on freight forwarders in France (from 2026)** - Forwarders acting as **indirect customs representatives** for importers of CBAM goods into France must: - Ensure **CBAM account registration** and linkage with EU Customs Single Window and French customs systems for clients exceeding the **50‑tonne/year threshold**. ([taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_bg?etrans=sl&utm_source=openai)) - Implement processes to **collect, validate and report embedded emissions data** from non‑EU suppliers throughout 2026, using either verified actuals or EU default values. KPMG notes that 2026 is the first year when importers are obliged to consistently collect verified emissions data in preparation for full pricing. ([kpmg.com](https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/esg/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam.html?utm_source=openai)) - Provide advisory services on **cost pass‑through**: CBAM charges effectively act as a **border carbon price** and must be factored into landed cost quotations, especially for steel, aluminium and fertilizer‑intensive agricultural chains entering France. ([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/03/what-to-expect-from-the-eu-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_a21e9b51/719d2ff9-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **3.2 EU ETS for shipping – extension to maritime from 2024 with full effect by 2026** **Timeline & scope** - While not all details are in the snippets above, the EU ETS has been **extended to maritime transport from 2024**, gradually covering: - 50% of emissions on extra‑EU voyages and 100% on intra‑EU voyages for vessels over a certain GT threshold. - Coverage phases in over 2024–2026 with a rising share of required allowance surrender each year. (This is consistent with adopted ETS maritime rules; 2026 is the first year near‑full cost exposure is felt.) ([atlanticcouncil.org](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for freight rates & forwarders in France (2026)** - By 2026, carriers calling at **French ports (Le Havre, Marseille‑Fos, Dunkerque, etc.)** will fully internalize ETS costs for intra‑EU legs and 50% for extra‑EU legs. This: - Adds a **carbon cost per ton‑mile** that must be reflected in ocean freight rates; estimates in external analyses generally fall into low single‑digit percentage surcharges on freight rates at current carbon prices but could rise materially if allowance prices increase. ([atlanticcouncil.org](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai)) - In combination with Red Sea rerouting (longer voyages + ~40% higher CO₂ emissions per trip), increases **effective ETS‑related cost impact** on Asia–Europe services calling in France versus pre‑crisis routes. Forwarders should expect more complex **fuel and carbon surcharges** in carrier tariffs through 2026. ([atlanticcouncil.org](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai)) **3.3 EU customs digitalization & Single Window – timing for France** **EU‑level framework** - The EU has adopted a **Customs Reform and EU Customs Data Hub** package (2023 onwards) which will be phased in through 2028–2038. A key early element for 2026 is the roll‑out of the **EU Customs Single Window and electronic systems integration** between customs, CBAM registry, TARIC and other regulatory databases. ([taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en?prefLang=bg&utm_source=openai)) - The CBAM Registry is already **integrated with national customs import systems and the EU Customs Single Window** from 1 January 2026, according to the Commission’s Taxation and Customs Union. ([taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en?prefLang=bg&utm_source=openai)) **France‑specific implications (2026 horizon)** - France’s Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects (DGDDI) is aligning national systems with the EU Customs Single Window. For forwarders, this translates into: - **Mandatory electronic filing** of customs declarations and supporting documents (including CBAM data) through integrated portals for almost all flows by 2026, with paper‑based or fragmented processes progressively discontinued. - Greater reliance on **pre‑arrival data, risk‑based controls and automated clearance**, reducing average clearance times but imposing stricter data‑quality requirements on forwarders’ TMS/ERP interfaces. ([taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en?prefLang=bg&utm_source=openai)) **Timing signals for French freight forwarders – 2026 action points** - **Q1 2026** - CBAM definitive regime in force; all covered imports into France must be channelled through authorised CBAM declarants with registry integration. - EU ETS maritime in second or third year of phase‑in, with a noticeable carbon component already priced into ocean freight to/from French ports. ([taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en?prefLang=bg&utm_source=openai)) - **Throughout 2026** - Importers (and their forwarders) must **collect verified emissions data** for CBAM goods; failure to do so pushes them to EU default values which may be less favourable, impacting competitiveness. ([kpmg.com](https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/esg/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam.html?utm_source=openai)) - French forwarders need to ensure **IT readiness** for fully digital customs processes, including CBAM registry linkage and Single Window messaging. Transition issues (data mapping, master data quality) will be most acute 2025–26. ([taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en?prefLang=bg&utm_source=openai)) - **Strategic implications into 2027+** - CBAM and ETS together realign cost structures: carbon‑intensive supply chains importing into France will face **higher and more transparent carbon‑related border costs**, pushing some customers to **re‑source from lower‑emission origins** or from within the EU. - Forwarders that can quantify and reduce clients’ **embedded‑carbon and ETS exposure** (route choice, vessel selection, modal shift, near‑shoring) gain a competitive edge. ([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/03/what-to-expect-from-the-eu-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_a21e9b51/719d2ff9-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) Sources: • A lifeline under threat: Why the Suez Canal’s security matters for the world - Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai • Red Sea Crisis Prompts Permanent Rerouting for Key Asia-Europe Services - Ports Directory https://ports.marinelink.com/ports/port/sausalito/news/red-sea-crisis-prompts-permanent-rerouting-for-key-asia-europe-services?utm_source=openai • A lifeline under threat: Why the Suez Canal’s security matters for the world - Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai • A lifeline under threat: Why the Suez Canal’s security matters for the world - Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/a-lifeline-under-threat-why-the-suez-canals-security-matters-for-the-world/?utm_source=openai • Red Sea Shipping Turmoil: A ‘Nightmare Situation’ https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/news-publications/inside-supply-management-magazine/blog/2024/2024-01/red-sea-shipping-turmoil-a-nightmare-situation/?utm_source=openai • With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, regional trade disruptions could ripple across the globe https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/03/05/with-the-strait-of-hormuz-blocked-regional-trade-disruptions-could-ripple-across-the-globe_6751117_19.html?utm_source=openai • 2026 Ocean Freight Outlook: Softer Rates Ahead, but Volatility Isn’t Going Anywhere | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai • Vincent Clerc, CEO of shipping company Maersk: 'In Asia and the Middle East, our fuel supply points risk running dry' https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/03/11/vincent-clerc-ceo-of-shipping-company-maersk-in-asia-and-the-middle-east-our-fuel-supply-points-risk-running-dry_6751330_19.html?utm_source=openai • With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, regional trade disruptions could ripple across the globe https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/03/05/with-the-strait-of-hormuz-blocked-regional-trade-disruptions-could-ripple-across-the-globe_6751117_19.html?utm_source=openai • Red Sea Crisis Prompts Permanent Rerouting for Key Asia-Europe Services - Ports Directory https://ports.marinelink.com/ports/port/sausalito/news/red-sea-crisis-prompts-permanent-rerouting-for-key-asia-europe-services?utm_source=openai • With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, regional trade disruptions could ripple across the globe https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economomy/article/2026/03/05/with-the-strait-of-hormuz-blocked-regional-trade-disruptions-could-ripple-across-the-globe_6751117_19.html?utm_source=openai • What 2025 Means for 2026: Ocean and Air Freight Forecast | Freightos Ocean & Air Freight Forecast 2026: What to Expect https://www.freightos.com/freight-industry-updates/freightos-news/what-2025-means-for-2026-ocean-and-air-freight-forecast/?utm_source=openai • With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, regional trade disruptions could ripple across the globe https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/03/05/with-the-strait-of-hormuz-blocked-regional-trade-disruptions-could-ripple-across-the-globe_6751117_19.html?utm_source=openai • 2026 Ocean Freight Outlook: Softer Rates Ahead, but Volatility Isn’t Going Anywhere | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai • 2026 Ocean Freight Outlook: Softer Rates Ahead, but Volatility Isn’t Going Anywhere | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai • 2026 Ocean Freight Outlook: Softer Rates Ahead, but Volatility Isn’t Going Anywhere | S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anywhere?utm_source=openai • Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism | EUR-Lex https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=legissum%3A4696271&utm_source=openai • Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism - Taxation and Customs Union https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_bg?etrans=sl&utm_source=openai • Policy BriefOECD https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/03/what-to-expect-from-the-eu-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_a21e9b51/719d2ff9-en.pdf?utm_source=openai • Carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM): Council and Parliament strike a deal on its simplification https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/06/18/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam-council-and-parliament-strike-a-deal-on-its-simplification/pdf/?utm_source=openai • Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism - Taxation and Customs Union https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_bg?etrans=sl&utm_source=openai • EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/esg/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam.html?utm_source=openai • Policy BriefOECD https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/03/what-to-expect-from-the-eu-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_a21e9b51/719d2ff9-en.pdf?utm_source=openai