## Company Profile Geodis Ireland Ltd is the Irish subsidiary of GEODIS (a global, top‑10 logistics and freight forwarding group). As a freight forwarder and logistics provider in Ireland it offers air/ocean freight forwarding, road/short‑sea distribution, customs brokerage and contract logistics services to exporters and importers operating through Irish ports (Dublin, Cork and other gateways). The Ireland operation serves customers across agri‑food, retail/PCF, beverages, and industrial sectors. (Lead memo cites GEODIS country BD contacts as evidence.) ## Pain Points 1) Clients’ export routing & rate volatility: Red Sea reroutes, blank sailings and schedule unreliability in Q1–Q2 2026 are creating space and timing risk for Irish exporters (reefer/PCF/dairy). Geodis clients need faster contingency sourcing and contract delivery options to avoid lost orders. 2) Rising compliance & documentation burden: Windsor Framework/TOM for GB imports plus the PPWR (general application Aug 2026) are increasing customs, SPS and packaging/labelling work for ROI→GB/NI/EU shipments; exporters need a delivery channel that bundles compliance, certification and freight. 3) Market diversification & origination gap: Irish exporters are pressured to move into US/EU premium channels (per Bord Bia), but many lack quick upstream buyer introductions and market access. Geodis can win more freight/3PL volume if it can offer clients a fast market‑entry & fulfilment pipeline — Tridge Ark can originate those clients and run delivery. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === [MARKET EVENTS] Ireland agri‑food exports & trade flows – latest signals for 2025 and into 2026 === **Headline export performance** - Bord Bia’s latest *Export Performance & Prospects 2025/26* report (released 7 Jan 2026) estimates: - **€19.0bn** in food, drink & horticulture exports in **2025**, up **12% YoY** vs 2024. - When adding c. **€2.2bn** in non‑edible agri‑food (e.g. forestry, bio‑based), total Irish agri‑food exports reach **€21.2bn**, up **11% YoY**. ([bordbia.ie](https://www.bordbia.ie/industry/news/press-releases/irish-food-drink-and-horticulture-exports-reach-a-record-19-billion/?utm_source=openai)) - This follows €17.0bn in 2024 (+5% YoY) and €16.3bn in 2023 (‑2% vs 2022), confirming a strong rebound through 2024–2025. ([farmersjournal.ie](https://www.farmersjournal.ie/agribusiness/news/rising-prices-lift-irish-food-and-drink-exports-to-17bn-for-2024-851121?utm_source=openai)) **By category (2025, Bord Bia EPS 2025/26 – where latest figures are quoted in external coverage)** - **Dairy**: ~**€6.3bn** in exports in 2024, flat in value but ~5% lower in volume vs 2023; early 2025 commentary points to firmer prices and modest value growth on tighter EU milk supply. ([farmersjournal.ie](https://www.farmersjournal.ie/agribusiness/news/rising-prices-lift-irish-food-and-drink-exports-to-17bn-for-2024-851121?utm_source=openai)) - **Beef**: - **€3.4bn** beef exports in **2025**, with strongest growth to the **UK** (worth **€1.6bn** in 2025). ([agriland.ie](https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/bord-bia-stronger-beef-sired-calves-exported-to-spain-eastern-europe-in-2025/?utm_source=openai)) - Farm‑gate R3 steer price averaged **€5.12/kg** in 2024 (+3% YoY), slightly above EU R3 young bull average at €5.10/kg. ([farmersjournal.ie](https://www.farmersjournal.ie/agribusiness/news/rising-prices-lift-irish-food-and-drink-exports-to-17bn-for-2024-851121?utm_source=openai)) - **Prepared Consumer Foods (PCF)**: - Value around **€3.4bn** in 2024, continuing as one of the fastest‑growing segments (up strongly since 2022). ([agriland.ie](https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/bord-bia-prepared-consumer-food-exports-hit-e3-4bn-in-2024/?utm_source=openai)) - April 2025 was Bord Bia’s *highest ever month* for total food/drink/horticulture exports, with PCF singled out as “biggest winner” between Sept 2022 and April 2025 (benefiting from UK demand for convenient/easy dining). ([farmersjournal.ie](https://www.farmersjournal.ie/agribusiness/news/value-of-irish-food-and-drink-exports-hit-all-time-high-in-april-873194?utm_source=openai)) - **Drinks (incl. spirits, beer, RTDs)**: - Total drinks exports in **2025** reached **€2.0bn**, up **2% YoY**. ([thespiritsbusiness.com](https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2026/03/bord-bia-were-not-deterred-by-us-challenges/?utm_source=openai)) - **Irish whiskey** exports hit c. **€1.0bn** in **2024**, +**13%** YoY, with broad‑based growth except in the UK. ([thespiritsbusiness.com](https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2025/01/irish-whiskey-exports-up-13-in-2024/?utm_source=openai)) **Destination markets – structure & recent shifts** Bord Bia and the Department of Agriculture consistently describe three main pillars: **UK, EU27 ex‑UK, and International (US + other)**. - **UK** - Remains Ireland’s **single largest country market**. - Bord Bia 2023/24 EPS: UK absorbed **~€5.6bn** of food & drink in **2023** (~34% of total). ([bordbia.ie](https://www.bordbia.ie/industry/news/press-releases/performance-and-prospects-report-2024-launches/?utm_source=openai)) - Bord Bia’s 2024 annual report notes the UK now accounts for **around 35%** of total Irish food and drink exports, underpinned by beef, dairy, prepared foods and alcohol. ([bordbia.ie](https://www.bordbia.ie/contentassets/4cbc0a0697904fbeb822f954921961ee/bord-bia-annual-report-2024.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - For beef specifically, the UK took **47%** of all Irish beef exports in **2024** (essentially unchanged YoY). ([farmersjournal.ie](https://www.farmersjournal.ie/agribusiness/news/rising-prices-lift-irish-food-and-drink-exports-to-17bn-for-2024-851121?utm_source=openai)) - **EU27 (excluding UK)** - Food & drink exports to the EU were **€5.8bn** in **2023**, slightly down (‑2%) vs 2022 as inflation and demand cooled. ([bordbia.ie](https://www.bordbia.ie/industry/news/press-releases/performance-and-prospects-report-2024-launches/?utm_source=openai)) - Through 2024–2025 EU performance has been more mixed by category: softer for some PCF and dairy lines, but stronger for beef and certain premium spirits. Bord Bia’s 2025 meat seminar comments that “overall, European countries were taking in more Irish products” in 2025. ([agriland.ie](https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/bord-bia-stronger-beef-sired-calves-exported-to-spain-eastern-europe-in-2025/?utm_source=openai)) - **US and wider international markets** - Bord Bia’s press release on 2025 exports emphasises the **US and other international markets** as key growth engines, particularly for drinks (whiskey, cream liqueur, RTDs) and certain dairy ingredients. - Example data points: - ~**90%** of Irish RTD alcohol exports go to the **US**, with only ~10% split between UK & EU. ([thespiritsbusiness.com](https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2025/01/irish-whiskey-exports-up-13-in-2024/?utm_source=openai)) - Irish cream liqueur exports to **China** grew **30%** in value to c. **€4.5m** in 2024, partly offsetting weaker European demand. ([thespiritsbusiness.com](https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2025/01/irish-whiskey-exports-up-13-in-2024/?utm_source=openai)) - **Macro positioning** - At EU‑level, agri‑food exports hit a record in **2025**, with agri‑food representing about **9%** of total EU exports. This underpins external demand conditions for Irish exporters within EU and globally. ([agriculture.ec.europa.eu](https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/media/news/eu-agri-food-trade-hits-new-records-2025-2026-03-13_en?utm_source=openai)) **Key trade‑flow / market‑event implications for 2026** - **Growth expectations**: - Bord Bia survey cited in the 7 Jan 2026 press release: just over **50% of Irish food companies expect export growth in 2026**, though ~**40%** report delaying investments due to economic and market conditions (inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risks). ([bordbia.ie](https://www.bordbia.ie/industry/news/press-releases/irish-food-drink-and-horticulture-exports-reach-a-record-19-billion/?utm_source=openai)) - **Market diversification priority**: - Irish government budget for 2026 allocates **€60m** to Bord Bia to strengthen trade promotion and market diversification in response to evolving EU/UK regulatory and geopolitical risk. ([data.oireachtas.ie](https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/committee/dail/34/select_committee_on_agriculture_and_food/submissions/2026/2026-02-25_opening-statement-minister-martin-heydon-t-d-department-of-agriculture-food-and-the-marine_en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Regulatory headwinds** (relevant for exporters’ planning horizon into 2026–27): - Bord Bia’s EPS 2025–26 flags multiple EU regulatory developments with possible direct/indirect cost impacts: Packaging & Packaging Waste Regulation (recyclable by 2030, general application from **Aug 2026**), sustainability and labelling rules, animal‑health related trade frictions (e.g., bluetongue in NI). ([bordbia.ie](https://www.bordbia.ie/globalassets/bordbia.ie/performance--prospects/bord-bia-export-performance-and-prospects-report-2025---2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Take‑aways for Irish agri‑food trade flows into 2026** - The **UK remains the anchor market** in volume terms (c. one‑third of exports; nearly half of beef), but **incremental value growth** is increasingly coming from: - **High‑value categories** (whiskey, premium dairy/ingredients, PCF). - **Non‑UK markets** (US, China and broader Asia, continental EU for beef and niche products). - Export growth has been **value‑driven** (pricing, premiumisation, inflation) more than volume in several categories (notably dairy). - 2026 planning is coloured by: - Anticipated **EU regulatory cost** increases (packaging, sustainability). - **Customs frictions around GB/NI/ROI border regimes** (see Timing Signals section). - Potential softening in global consumer demand if interest‑rate‑driven slowdowns persist. **Sources – Market Events** Bord Bia EPS 2025/26 press release; Bord Bia 2023/24 & 2024/25 EPS reports; Bord Bia Annual Report 2024; Farmers Journal export coverage 2025; Agriland beef/PCF coverage; The Spirits Business whiskey & drinks coverage; EU agri‑food trade 2025 communication; Irish Government/Oireachtas statements on Bord Bia funding. ([bordbia.ie](https://www.bordbia.ie/industry/news/press-releases/irish-food-drink-and-horticulture-exports-reach-a-record-19-billion/?utm_source=openai)) === [DEMAND SIGNALS] Europe‑UK sea freight & container rate trends, Q1–Q2 2026 === *Note: Very little data is published specifically as “Europe–UK” short‑sea indices; most quantifiable signals are from Asia–Europe/UK lanes plus short‑sea ferry capacity and market commentary. Below focuses on what’s available but framed for Ireland/UK‑Europe supply chains.* **1. Global container market context (2025 → Q1 2026)** - **Red Sea / Suez disruption**: - Houthi attacks since late 2023 have kept a large share of Asia–Europe services rerouted via the **Cape of Good Hope**, adding ~**14 days** to round trips and effectively absorbing new capacity through longer voyage times. ([deluair.com](https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/container-shipping-2026?utm_source=openai)) - Suez Canal container transits were down about **55% YoY** through Q4 2024; effective vessel‑mile demand up **~18%** vs an estimated **~6%** growth in actual cargo volume. ([deluair.com](https://deluair.com/consultancy/insights/container-shipping-2026?utm_source=openai)) - **Rate levels entering 2026**: - **Drewry World Container Index (WCI)**: - Late Jan 2026: index around **$2,107/FEU**, down ~5% WoW at that point. ([drewry.co.uk](https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry?gad_source=1&utm_source=openai)) - Week 11 (mid‑March 2026): WCI at **$2,123/FEU**, up ~**8%** vs the previous reading, signalling a modest re‑tightening after earlier softening. ([gloap.net](https://gloap.net/en/news/item/3302/?utm_source=openai)) - **Asia–North Europe / UK spot benchmarks**: - Platts PCR1 & PCR11 (North Asia–North Europe / UK) assessed at around **$2,700/FEU** in early Jan 2026, up versus late 2025 on GRIs and pre‑CNY demand. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - **Contracts vs spot**: - Maritime Gateway’s 2026 outlook notes **long‑term contract rates entering Q1 2026 on Med routes are below spot**, indicating expectations of **weaker market later in 2026**; similar dynamic implied for Asia–Europe as orderbook deliveries accelerate. ([maritimegateway.com](https://www.maritimegateway.com/container-shipping-forecast-2026-rates-routes-risk/?utm_source=openai)) **2. Capacity & blank sailings – relevance for Europe‑UK & Irish exporters** - **Asia–Europe alliances’ behaviour** (which cascades to feeder/short‑sea capacity into UK & Ireland): - Shipping Intelligence Hub reports **47 blank sailings** planned across major trades for Mar–Apr 2026, of which **28 on Asia–Europe**. This corresponds to up to **~15% of nominal Asia–Europe capacity temporarily removed** to defend rates. ([shippingintelligencehub.com](https://shippingintelligencehub.com/article/carriers-blank-sailings-asia-europe-demand-2026-02-26?utm_source=openai)) - European and consulting market updates (Sogese, AlixPartners, logistics reports) show: - A **122% surge in blank sailings** in Feb 2026 vs the previous year, reflecting aggressive capacity management as demand softens. ([assets-eu-01.kc-usercontent.com](https://assets-eu-01.kc-usercontent.com/4192440f-b944-0135-c768-e05d36ed3e93/b697dadb-657c-4446-8adc-5e267ea02498/26_Q1%20Logistics%20Report_VF.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - April 2026 container update notes “effective capacity is tightening” in Europe due to longer voyages and operational constraints, even as the orderbook is high. ([sogeseitalia.it](https://www.sogeseitalia.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Sogese_Market_Update_April_2026_EN-1.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Orderbook & overcapacity risk**: - Clarksons data quoted in Maritime Gateway: orderbook‑to‑fleet ratio around **31.6%** in early 2026 (up from 27.5% at start‑2023), raising risk of a **rate correction (“rate collapse”)** if Red Sea diversions ease and all capacity returns to normal routing. ([maritimegateway.com](https://www.maritimegateway.com/container-shipping-forecast-2026-rates-routes-risk/?utm_source=openai)) **3. Europe‑UK specific signals: short‑sea, ro‑ro, and ferry capacity** There is no widely quoted index just for “EU–UK” in Q1 2026, but several pieces of evidence: - **Ro‑ro ferry capacity on Irish Sea / UK–EU routes**: - Stena Line has been boosting freight capacity on Irish Sea routes, including deployment of **NewMax hybrid vessels** with higher lane metres (e.g., Stena Estrid class ~**3,100 lane metres**), and adjusting services because of port works/dry‑dockings. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stena_Line?utm_source=openai)) - DFDS’s 2025 Annual Report (published Feb 2026) notes: - Freight ferry capacity in North Sea / Channel trades was **elevated in 2025**, with expectations it will “rebalance through 2026” amid strong competition. - DFDS also added capacity via new charters and a **Jersey–UK/France** RoPax service (using Stena Vinga) in 2025; vessel to be purchased outright in **Nov 2026**. ([dfds.com](https://www.dfds.com/en/about/media/news/dfds-acquires-ropax-ferry-stena-vinga?utm_source=openai)) - For shippers, this suggests **structurally strong ro‑ro capacity** across the Channel and Irish Sea into 2026, even as carriers adjust schedules. - **Rate discussion for Europe–UK**: - Moving‑to‑UK logistics guidance (consumer‑focused but data‑rich) notes that by late Jan 2026: - WCI at about **$2,107/FEU**, and **long‑term Asia–North Europe contract rates** around **$2,010/FEU**, down ~**10%** in early 2026 vs the prior period. - Sea‑freight costs for door‑to‑door removals to the UK in 2026 were noted as “lower than 2024 peak levels but volatile” due to Red Sea risk and port‑congestion concerns on a full re‑routing back via Suez. ([movingtotheuk.co.uk](https://movingtotheuk.co.uk/moving/sea-freight-belongings-relocation-uk?utm_source=openai)) - Ex‑Asia rates remain a major determinant of **feeder and transshipment flows** into the UK and Ireland from EU hubs (Rotterdam, Antwerp‑Bruges, Hamburg), so Irish exporters importing packaging, ingredients or retail goods from Asia will still feel that volatility indirectly. **4. Capacity shortages vs demand – risk assessment for Q1–Q2 2026** - **Near‑term (Q1–early Q2 2026)**: - Ports reports indicate **strong container throughput at major European hubs** in Q1 2026 with Red Sea routing impacts “stabilizing” rather than worsening, suggesting congestion is manageable but still above 2019 norms. ([ports.marinelink.com](https://ports.marinelink.com/ports/port/tacoma/news/european-ports-strong-q1-2026-container-throughput-red-sea-stabilizes?utm_source=openai)) - One‑year time‑charter rates for container tonnage remain **“firm at elevated levels”** in early 2026, supported partly by geopolitical risk and longer voyage times. ([euroseas.gr](https://www.euroseas.gr/files/Euroseas-Q1-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Combined, these factors mean **no acute, systemic capacity shortage** on Europe–UK or Ireland–continental routes, but: - **Operational capacity is tighter** than pure fleet numbers suggest (longer loops, schedule unreliability). - Blank sailings and service reshuffles can cause **localised space squeezes** and longer transit times, particularly around alliance GRI seasons and any Red Sea escalation. - **Medium‑term (late Q2 2026 onward)**: - If Red Sea routes normalize while the large 2024–26 newbuild program completes, scenario analyses point to: - A potential **20–30% rate drop** on Asia–Europe lanes within weeks in a benign scenario (full Suez access, no further shocks). ([maritimegateway.com](https://www.maritimegateway.com/container-shipping-forecast-2026-rates-routes-risk/?utm_source=openai)) - A **20–30% rate spike** in the opposite scenario (renewed security escalation forcing renewed diversions around the Cape). ([maritimegateway.com](https://www.maritimegateway.com/container-shipping-forecast-2026-rates-routes-risk/?utm_source=openai)) - For Europe–UK short‑sea, such global swings would likely show up as: - Volatile **feeder and transshipment surcharges**, bunker adjustments and peak‑season surcharges. - **Higher schedule risk** rather than chronic shortage, given the structurally high short‑sea/ro‑ro capacity. **Implications for Irish and EU–UK agri‑food supply chains** - **Budgeting assumptions** for H2 2026 should allow for: - Spot Asia–Europe/UK **around $1,500–2,500/FEU** band in benign case, but with significant upside risk if Red Sea deteriorates. - Europe–UK short‑sea rates likely **below 2021–22 peaks**, but still above pre‑COVID norms and sensitive to bunker & ETS‑related cost pass‑through (ETS for shipping starts biting more visibly in 2026 on intra‑EU legs). - **Risk management**: - For high‑volume commodities (dairy powders, beef, ambient grocery to GB/EU), **multi‑modal flexibility (ro‑ro vs container), multiple ports, and a mix of contract + index‑linked deals** remains critical. - Agri‑food exporters with **temperature‑controlled** needs should pay particular attention to reefer equipment availability and port dwell‑time trends at their main European transshipment hubs. **Sources – Demand Signals** S&P Global container quarterly & Asia–Europe capacity updates; Drewry WCI data (via Drewry & secondary summaries); SCFI and blank‑sailing statistics from logistics reports; Sogese April 2026 container update; Maritime Gateway 2026 outlook; Deluair 2026 container‑shipping analysis; DFDS 2025 annual report; Stena Line / vessel and capacity updates; Moving‑to‑UK sea‑freight guide 2026. ([drewry.co.uk](https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry?gad_source=1&utm_source=openai)) === [TIMING SIGNALS] EU/UK customs rules, NI Protocol / Windsor Framework and impacts on Irish exporters – 2026 horizon === **1. Windsor Framework & NI Protocol – baseline** - The **Windsor Framework** (agreed Feb 2023) revised how the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol operates: - Introduced **“green lane / red lane”** system: goods staying in Northern Ireland and not at risk of entering the EU use streamlined processes (green lane), while goods moving to or at risk of entering the EU Single Market face full EU customs & SPS checks (red lane). - Provided tailored arrangements on **customs, SPS for agri‑food, VAT/excise, medicines**, aiming to cut checks for GB–NI trade while safeguarding the EU Single Market. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windsor_Framework?utm_source=openai)) **2. Phased GB labelling & SPS implementation – key dates affecting agri‑food** While much public material is general, the Windsor Framework and UK guidance outline a phased implementation for GB–NI food labelling & SPS rules (important for Irish exporters via landbridge or using GB retailers): - Labelling requirements under UK’s application of Windsor rules: - **From Oct 2023**: “Not for EU” style labels required for some meat and fresh dairy products shipped from GB to NI. - **From Oct 2024**: labelling extended to *all* dairy products. - **From Jul 2025**: composite products, fruit, vegetables and fish. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windsor_Framework?utm_source=openai)) - The UK chose to apply many of these labels **GB‑wide** (not just on products destined for NI), which Irish exporters encounter when co‑packing or private‑labelling in GB for re‑export. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windsor_Framework?utm_source=openai)) **3. EU/UK customs evolution into 2026 and specific NI developments** - **Customs processes for Irish exporters using the GB landbridge or serving GB/NI markets** are shaped by: - Ongoing implementation of Windsor Framework systems (e.g., **UK Internal Market Scheme**, “green lane” eligibility checks, digitalisation of customs/transit). - **UK Target Operating Model (TOM)** for SPS border controls on EU imports to GB (phased 2024–2025), which adds documentary and physical checks for certain agri‑food categories exported from Ireland to GB mainland. (Latest official updates are UK‑side; the Irish government and Bord Bia have been advising exporters on additional certification and potential inspection delays through 2024–25.) - **Northern Ireland institutions**: - A **Windsor Framework Democratic Scrutiny Committee** in the NI Assembly was established to oversee EU law application, including potential “Stormont Brake” usage on new EU rules. Membership changes in Feb 2025 confirm the mechanism is now live institutionally, although it has not yet been used to block agri‑food‑relevant legislation. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windsor_Framework_Democratic_Scrutiny_Committee?utm_source=openai)) **4. Regulatory pipeline with timing impact on Irish agri‑food exporters (2025–26)** Bord Bia’s Export Performance & Prospects 2025–26 devotes a section to **EU regulatory developments** likely to affect Irish exporters’ costs and market access: - **EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR)**: - Aims for **all packaging on the EU market to be recyclable by 2030**. - Entered into force in **Feb 2025** with a **general application date in Aug 2026**. - Implications: tighter rules on material choices, recycled content, reuse/return systems; increased compliance and redesign costs for food & drink exporters, particularly in beverages and retail‑packed foods. ([bordbia.ie](https://www.bordbia.ie/globalassets/bordbia.ie/performance--prospects/bord-bia-export-performance-and-prospects-report-2025---2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Animal‑health and SPS vigilance**: - 2025 saw renewed concerns about **animal disease outbreaks** (e.g., bluetongue detection in Northern Ireland), with potential for **regionalisation measures** that tighten cross‑border livestock and meat movements if outbreaks spread. ([bordbia.ie](https://www.bordbia.ie/globalassets/bord-bia/... (truncated for submission)