## Company Profile PT. CHAYA INTERFREIGHT CARGO — Indonesia-based freight forwarder (website: https://www.interfreight-cargo.com). Lead contact: Ahun Lie, Director. Public lead data is limited, but the company fits the typical Indonesian forwarder profile: arranges international sea and air freight, customs clearance and domestic forwarding/warehousing for exporters and importers. Likely serves plantation exporters (palm oil, coffee, rubber), miners and light manufacturers given its location in Indonesia and publicly listed directory presence. ## Pain Points 1) Policy & permit volatility: new 2026 rules (Permendag 5/2026, 6/2026 and Permendag 12/2026) create faster electronic approvals but also stronger post‑hoc revocation powers for rice, fisheries and other goods. Forwarders face sudden freezes or documentary risk when exporters’ permits are revoked — a problem for route planning and carrier bookings. 2) Freight and schedule volatility: Q1–Q2 2026 blank sailings, rollovers and localized port congestion (e.g., Semarang) make it hard to guarantee space and timing for exporters; carriers also use commercial tactics (FAK vs contract splits) that squeeze margins and complicate quoting. 3) Changing cargo mix & compliance needs: Indonesia is shifting from raw ores to processed nickel/metal exports and relaxing licensing for coal/mineral concentrates, while plantation exports (CPO, coffee, cocoa) are front‑loading shipments around seasonal and policy inflection points (B50). CHAYA’s clients will need buyer access, compliance support and fast execution for different cargo types. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. [MARKET EVENTS] – INDONESIA EXPORT TRENDS 2026 === **Macro export mix & Q1 2026 shift** - Indonesia’s Q1 2026 export growth is being driven primarily by the **processing / manufacturing sector**, while the **agriculture sector has contracted** in value terms. Key contributors cited: **nickel, palm oil, basic organic chemicals from ag products, and semiconductors.** ([insights.tridge.com](https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLeuqzNpcahXPP7m4nVmFxeX?utm_source=openai)) - An Indonesia 2026 macro‑outlook (bank research) describes exports as still heavily concentrated in **CPO, coal and nickel**, with those three underpinning overall export performance, though growth is slowing from the post‑pandemic boom. ([vira.bca.co.id](https://vira.bca.co.id/-/media/Feature/Report/File/S8/Laporan-Riset-Ekonomi/2025/12/2026-indonesia-economic-outlook-inching-towards-higher-growth-19-december-2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Plantation commodities (palm oil, coffee, cocoa, rubber, coconut)** - Plantation exports (palm oil, coffee, cocoa, coconut, rubber, tea) **gained momentum into late‑2025 and early‑2026**, with a **9% rise in export volumes** for the group versus the prior year, supported by relatively high global prices and strong Asian demand (China, India, regional buyers). ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - **Palm oil / CPO** shipments surged toward the end of 2025 as veg‑oil prices strengthened, and this higher shipment tempo has **continued into early 2026**, particularly to **China, India, Pakistan and other Asian markets**. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - Rubber, cocoa, coffee and coconut are explicitly highlighted as **secondary but rising contributors** to plantation export earnings as Indonesia leverages diversified markets across Asia and the Middle East. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Coal & energy commodities** - Coal remains a top export earner. A 2026 policy/industry review underscores that **export controls (DMO, licensing) and fiscal measures** are being actively used to manage coal exports and domestic supply; this has made coal export volumes more policy‑driven and less purely price‑driven. ([aseanbriefing.com](https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/indonesia-coal-2026-how-export-controls-and-policy-shape-investment-returns/?utm_source=openai)) - A March 2026 revision of export rules (Minister of Trade Regulations No. 5/2026 and 6/2026) **relaxes export licensing for coal, tin and mineral concentrates** (ilmenite, rutile, etc.), shifting to more streamlined permits and electronic processes. This can **support higher realized export volumes** in 2026 vs. a counterfactual with tighter licensing. ([petromindo.com](https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/indonesia-relaxes-export-licensing-for-mining-oil-and-gas-3?utm_source=openai)) **Nickel, metals & downstreaming** - Indonesia’s **export ban on raw nickel ore remains in place** (re‑instated in 2020 and maintained through 2026), pushing ore into domestic smelting and downstream processing. ([cetex.org](https://cetex.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Indonesia-Ban-on-Exports-of-Raw-Nickel.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - IMF analysis notes Indonesia’s share of **global nickel production reached ~60% by 2024**, with export earnings from processed nickel products rising sharply; this trend continues into 2026 as new capacity ramps up. ([imf.org](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1idnea2026001-source-pdf.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Research on the Morowali Industrial Park highlights “rapid expansion” of nickel processing capacity, confirming the **shift in export composition from unprocessed ore toward higher‑value nickel intermediates and finished products** (NPI, matte, MHP, stainless steel, battery precursors). ([arxiv.org](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.07331?utm_source=openai)) **Top export commodities & new trade corridors** - A 2026 export‑guide summary for Indonesia lists among the **top 10 export commodities**: - **Coal and other mineral fuels** (still the largest by value) - **Palm oil & related fats/oils** - **Nickel and nickel products** (~US$9.7 bn; ~3–4% of total exports) - **Rubber and rubber products** - **Textiles and apparel** - Various manufactured goods (electronics, machinery, etc.) ([dhl.com](https://www.dhl.com/discover/en-id/e-commerce-advice/e-commerce-best-practice/top-10-export-commodities-in-indonesia?utm_source=openai)) - An early‑2026 study of ASEAN–China trade patterns shows Indonesia’s exports to China heavily concentrated in **mineral fuels & oils (28.3% of exports to China), iron & steel (22.5%), fats & oils including palm (11.2%), and nickel products (9.1%)**, underscoring China’s role as a key corridor for coal, palm oil and nickel‑based products. ([iseas.edu.sg](https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ISEAS_EWP_2026-2_Pane.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Plantation‑export commentary points to **increasing shipments to non‑traditional markets** in the Middle East and Africa (especially for palm oil and rubber) as traders diversify beyond China/India and the EU; this is described qualitatively as creating **“new growth corridors”** for Indonesian ag exports in 2026. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Textiles and light manufacturing** - While less detailed data is available for 2026 YTD, logistics and export‑advice content from early 2026 cites **textiles & apparel** among Indonesia’s key export categories by value alongside electronics and footwear, with primary markets in the US, EU, and Japan. Growth is **moderate** compared with the commodity sectors, constrained by labor‑cost competition from Vietnam and Bangladesh and by softer apparel demand in the US/EU. ([dhl.com](https://www.dhl.com/discover/en-id/e-commerce-advice/e-commerce-best-practice/top-10-export-commodities-in-indonesia?utm_source=openai)) **Key 2026 export‑market implications** - **Volume trend:** Export **values** are under modest pressure from softer global commodity prices, but **volumes for coal, palm oil, and processed nickel appear stable‑to‑rising** into Q1–Q2 2026. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) - **Composition shift:** Policy is clearly pushing a shift **from raw ores (nickel) to processed metals**, and export‑regulatory easing in March 2026 suggests a tilt toward **supporting volume and investment** in mining/energy exports, even as Indonesia moves to reduce some fossil‑fuel imports (e.g., diesel via palm‑based biofuels). ([petromindo.com](https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/indonesia-relaxes-export-licensing-for-mining-oil-and-gas-3?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (MARKET EVENTS):** ([insights.tridge.com](https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLeuqzNpcahXPP7m4nVmFxeX?utm_source=openai)) === 2. [DEMAND SIGNALS] – SEA CONTAINER DEMAND & FREIGHT RATE TRENDS 2026 (Q1–Q2) === **Structural backdrop** - A 2026 ocean‑freight outlook notes that the **global container fleet expanded ~30% over 2023–2025**, leading to structural **overcapacity** in 2026 as global trade growth slows to around **1.7%**. Rates are **well below 2021–2022 peaks**, but volatility remains elevated, with geopolitical shocks (Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz) driving swings. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anyway?utm_source=openai)) **Asia–Europe (incl. SEA–EU)** - S&P’s “Containers Quarterly” reports that the **Asia–Europe market entered 2026 on a seasonally firm footing**, with: - **North Asia–North Europe/UK spot rates (PCR1 & PCR11) at about US$2,700/FEU in early January 2026**, up from late‑2025 on the back of pre‑Lunar New Year demand and GRIs. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - By April 2026, Freightos data show **Asia–Europe rates ~15% higher YoY and >50% above October 2025 lows**, still supported by reroutings and higher fuel costs despite weak underlying demand. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026-excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) **Trans‑Pacific (Asia/SEA–US)** - Trans‑Pacific lanes are a focus for Southeast Asian exporters (Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam): - As of **mid‑April 2026**, Asia–US West Coast spot rates are reported around **US$2,810/FEU**, **21% lower** than at the start of 2026, reflecting weak volumes and intense carrier competition. Carriers responded by announcing **nine blank sailings on the trans‑Pacific in a single week in April** to stem further declines. ([valuechainasia.com](https://valuechainasia.com/articles/logistics/trans-pacific-container-rates-2026-asia-exporters?utm_source=openai)) - A freight‑market update for late March 2026 notes China–US West Coast rates around **US$2,100–2,200/FEU**, after increases of **US$400–600 per container** driven mainly by war‑related fuel and routing effects, not stronger demand. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1s2qic5/ocean_rates_up_as_volumes_continue_to_sink/?utm_source=openai)) - By early May 2026, another update indicates shippers can find **spot rates as low as US$2,500/FEU (China → USWC) and US$3,550/FEU (China → USEC)**, again with comments that carriers are using blank sailings and overbooking to manage capacity. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1t6dvs8/blank_sailings_and_rollovers_dominate_may_freight/?utm_source=openai)) - Freightos weekly indices show **Asia–US West Coast rates (FBX01) fluctuating between small weekly declines in February and 1–11% weekly increases through April**, indicating volatile but **sideways‑to‑slightly‑upward rates** in Q2 despite soft demand. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1r7g0bx/freightos_weekly_update_february_17_2026-excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) **Southeast Asia–focused signals (Indonesia, Singapore, broader SEA)** - A dedicated 2026 Southeast Asia freight‑lane intelligence report highlights: - The **“structural story” is overcapacity meeting surging intra‑Asian and diversification‑driven demand** (China+1, friend‑shoring). - **Thailand and Indonesia to US lanes** show pricing broadly similar to Vietnam, with modest differentials by port and carrier alliance. - Significant **capacity re‑deployment into intra‑Asia and SEA–Middle East/India corridors** as carriers chase volume outside the slow US/EU trades. ([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/southeast-asia-freight-lane-intelligence-2026?utm_source=openai)) - Terminal utilization in key Indonesian and regional ports remains high: a February 2026 freight report cites **Semarang above 90% utilization** and Chinese export gateways like Shanghai Waigaoqiao at 81% and Qingdao at 80%, suggesting **localized congestion and rollover risk** even in an overall soft market. ([jmrodgers.com](https://www.jmrodgers.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/JMR-Freight-Market-Update-February-2026-v1.0.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Blank sailings & capacity management (Q1–Q2 2026)** - Across Q1–Q2 2026, multiple sources note **aggressive blank sailings on east–west trades**: - February 2026: **>100 voyage cancellations across Asia–US lanes in one month** post‑Lunar New Year as carriers reacted to weak demand. ([jmrodgers.com](https://www.jmrodgers.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/JMR-Freight-Market-Update-February-2026-v1.0.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - March–May 2026: reports of **carriers using blank sailings to “artificially tighten space”** and enforce price floors, including tactics like requiring **one container at full FAK rate for every four at discounted contract rates**. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightRight/comments/1sm7dvh/space_tightens_on_chinaus_routes_despite_weak/?utm_source=openai)) - Asia–Europe: Maersk and others **cancel GRIs but add more blanked sailings**, keeping rates ~15% above last year despite low underlying volumes. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/zim/comments/1sy97nu/freightos_weekly_update_april_28_2026-excerpts/?utm_source=openai)) **Indonesia‑specific demand indicators** - While most indices aggregate Asia as a region, commentary on Southeast Asia freight notes: - **Diversification from China** is supporting relative resilience in **Indonesia–US/EU lanes**, with some shippers shifting origin for consumer goods, textiles and basic manufactures to Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. ([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/southeast-asia-freight-lane-intelligence-2026?utm_source=openai)) - Export‑sector data show Indonesia’s **processing industry exports (nickel, chemicals, semiconductors)** growing in Q1 2026. This supports steady **outbound full‑container demand from Indonesia**, even as agricultural export value shrinks. ([insights.tridge.com](https://insights.tridge.com/speaker-product-news-reports/KJLyFXpzJzgKuB1Gqsm5QUKHGgR43AVdqLeuqzNpcahXPP7m4nVmFxeX?utm_source=openai)) **Key demand‑side takeaways for 2026 (Q1–Q2)** - **Volume:** - Global container volumes are **soft but not collapsing**; Southeast Asia is **outperforming some other regions** thanks to diversification of sourcing and resilient intra‑Asia trade. ([gocubic.io](https://www.gocubic.io/guides/market-intelligence/southeast-asia-freight-lane-intelligence-2026?utm_source=openai)) - **Rates:** - Asia/SEA–USWC rates are roughly in the **US$2,100–2,800/FEU range** in Q1–Q2 2026, down YoY in early 2026 but **higher than pre‑war lows** due to fuel and routing disruptions. ([valuechainasia.com](https://valuechainasia.com/articles/logistics/trans-pacific-container-rates-2026-asia-exporters?utm_source=openai)) - Asia/SEA–Europe rates are **firmer relative to demand**, ~US$2,700/FEU in early January and ~15% higher YoY by late April. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/010926-containers-quarterly-asia-europe-enters-2026-with-seasonal-firmness-structural-uncertainty?utm_source=openai)) - **Capacity:** - Structural overcapacity (fleet +30% since 2023) plus **persistent blank sailings and rollovers** suggests shippers from Indonesia/Southeast Asia face **ample physical capacity but manufactured space tightness**, with schedule reliability and rollover risk as key operational concerns. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anyway?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (DEMAND SIGNALS):** ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/02/2026-ocean-freight-outlook-softer-rates-ahead-but-volatility-is-not-going-anyway?utm_source=openai)) === 3. [TIMING SIGNALS] – INDONESIAN TRADE POLICY CHANGES & 2026 SEASONAL WINDOWS === **A. 2026 Indonesian trade‑policy changes / export restrictions** 1. **New export‑framework regulations (March 2026)** - On **17 March 2026**, Indonesia issued **Minister of Trade Regulation No. 5/2026 and No. 6/2026**, revising its export framework. Key points: ([ahp.id](https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai)) - Adjustments to both **general export policy and technical export policies** for **tin, oil & gas, coal, minerals, and agricultural products**. - **Relaxation of export licensing** for several mining and energy commodities, including **coal, tin, and certain mineral concentrates (e.g., ilmenite, rutile)**, simplifying permit procedures and moving towards electronic processing. ([petromindo.com](https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/indonesia-relaxes-export-licensing-for-mining-oil-and-gas-3?utm_source=openai)) - These changes are part of a deliberate push to **cut red tape, improve the investment climate, and encourage exports** in strategic commodities. ([ahp.id](https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai)) 2. **Export permits, revocation and control mechanisms (rice, fish and others)**n - A **May 2026** update (Permendag No. 12/2026 – Fifth Amendment to Permendag No. 23/2023 on Export Policy and Regulations) introduces **enhanced powers to revoke or freeze export permits** for several commodities, including **rice and fisheries products**. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/new-rules-emerge-export-permits-can-be-revok-uyofrlok?utm_source=openai)) - At the same time, Permendag 5/2026 and 6/2026 enable **export approvals for selected commodities, including rice and fishery products, to be issued electronically and automatically**, signaling a shift toward **faster issuance but tighter ex‑post control** (permits can be revoked if conditions are breached or domestic supply is threatened). ([petromindo.com](https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/indonesia-relaxes-export-licensing-for-mining-oil-and-gas-3?utm_source=openai)) 3. **Nickel: continuing export ban on raw ore, downstreaming focus** - The **export ban on raw nickel ore**, re‑instated in **January 2020**, is still in force in 2026. IMF and policy analyses from early 2026 confirm that Indonesia’s industrial policy continues to rely on **export restrictions, local content requirements and investment incentives** to build downstream processing for EV and battery value chains. ([imf.org](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2026/english/1idnea2026001-source-pdf.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Recent academic work on environmental impacts at Morowali implicitly confirms the **ongoing operation and expansion of domestic nickel processing**, consistent with a continued raw‑ore export ban rather than any relaxation. ([arxiv.org](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.07331?utm_source=openai)) 4. **Coal and mineral export controls in 2026** - A 2026 coal‑sector review emphasizes that Indonesia is **actively calibrating coal exports** through **export controls and domestic market obligations (DMO)** to balance state revenue with domestic power needs; these tools can be adjusted during 2026, affecting volumes and price realization. ([aseanbriefing.com](https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/indonesia-coal-2026-how-export-controls-and-policy-shape-investment-returns/?utm_source=openai)) - The March 2026 regulatory package (Permendag 5/2026 & 6/2026) **eases licensing** but does not remove the state’s ability to adjust quotas or approvals. This implies **more flexible yet still interventionist coal‑export management through 2026.** ([petromindo.com](https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/indonesia-relaxes-export-licensing-for-mining-oil-and-gas-3?utm_source=openai)) 5. **Palm oil & domestic biodiesel (timing signal)** - A late‑April 2026 statement (via national media) indicates that **Indonesia will stop importing diesel fuel from 1 July 2026**, coinciding with full implementation of **B50 biofuel (50% diesel, 50% CPO)**. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/indonesia/comments/1spvl5t/indonesia_to_stop_diesel_imports_shift_to_palm/?utm_source=openai)) - While this is not an explicit export ban, it **tightens the domestic demand side for palm oil**, which can: - Increase **domestic CPO absorption** from mid‑2026 onward; - Potentially reduce **exportable surplus** or require exporters to rebalance between lower‑quality and higher‑value palm products. - Historically, similar biodiesel‑blend upgrades (B30 → B35) have temporarily diverted volumes from export to domestic use; the B50 move in July 2026 should be treated as a **timing inflection point for CPO export flows**. 6. **Rice export management in 2026** - The May 2026 regulation on export‑permit revocation/freezing explicitly covering **rice** indicates a **more active stance on safeguarding domestic supply** as El Niño‑related weather concerns roll into 2026. Permits may be frozen if domestic prices or stocks breach thresholds, making **rice exports particularly sensitive to seasonal and policy triggers in 2026**. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/new-rules-emerge-export-permits-can-be-revok-uyofrlok?utm_source=openai)) **B. 2026 Seasonal Harvest Windows – Coffee & Cocoa (Indonesia focus)** (Direct 2026‑dated agronomic calendars are scarce; below uses standard Indonesian seasonality, cross‑checked against recent commentary on plantation exports.) 1. **Coffee (mainly Robusta in Sumatra, Java; Arabica in highlands)** - Indonesia’s main coffee harvest seasons are relatively stable year‑to‑year: - **Sumatra (Robusta/Arabica):** - Flowering: typically **September–November** (prior year). - Main harvest: **May–September**, peaking **June–August**. - **Java & Sulawesi:** - Harvest slightly earlier, often **April–July**. - Plantation‑export commentary for 2026 indicates that **coffee export volumes tend to rise in Q3**, following the main harvest, with early shipments of new‑crop coffee starting **late Q2 (June)**. Cocoa and coffee are grouped as plantation crops whose export momentum into early 2026 reflects **carry‑over of strong late‑2025 shipments plus forward sales for the 2026 crop.** ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Timing implication (coffee):** - For 2026, expect: - **Harvest window:** roughly **April–September 2026**, strongest **June–August**. - **Export shipment peak:** **Q3 2026** (July–September), with **pre‑harvest tightening or stock‑draws in Q1–Q2** and a ramp‑up of physical flows from late Q2 forward. 2. **Cocoa (Sulawesi, Sumatra)** - Indonesia’s cocoa harvest is more **bi‑modal**, but with a clear main crop: - **Main crop:** **September–December**, extending into **January**. - **Mid‑crop / smaller flush:** often **March–May**. - Plantation‑export data referencing cocoa alongside palm oil and coffee in early‑2026 exports suggests that **late‑2025 main‑crop cocoa shipments continued into Q1 2026**, with another, smaller lift expected from mid‑crop deliveries in **Q2 2026**. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Timing implication (cocoa):** - For 2026: - **Residual main‑crop shipments:** **Q1 2026** (stock out‑flows). - **Mid‑crop harvest & shipments:** **Q2 2026** (March–May harvest; exports into late Q2–early Q3). - **Main‑crop 2026 harvest:** **September–December 2026**, with export ramp from **Q4 2026 into Q1 2027**. **C. Combined policy + seasonality timing signals (2026)** - **Nickel:** - No relaxation of the nickel ore export ban is planned or signaled for 2026; instead, policy is reinforcing downstreaming. This means **processed nickel export capacity additions (smelters, HPAL plants) are the main timing driver**, not policy changes. Capacity at Morowali and similar hubs is ramping through 2025–2026, supporting **steady to rising exports of nickel intermediates across the year.** ([cetex.org](https://cetex.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Indonesia-Ban-on-Exports-of-Raw-Nickel.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Coal:** - March 2026 license‑easing implies that **coal exporters may accelerate shipments in mid‑2026**, especially if prices are favorable, as permit‑related frictions fall. However, DMO and potential ad‑hoc export‑quota moves remain a risk later in the year if domestic power concerns intensify. ([petromindo.com](https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/indonesia-relaxes-export-licensing-for-mining-oil-and-gas-3?utm_source=openai)) - **Palm oil:** - The **B50 implementation date (1 July 2026)** is a key inflection point: exporters may **front‑load CPO exports in H1 2026** ahead of higher domestic blending demand, then face tighter exportable surplus and potentially higher domestic prices in H2 2026. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/indonesia/comments/1spvl5t/indonesia_to_stop_diesel_imports_shift_to_palm/?utm_source=openai)) - **Rice:** - With enhanced **export‑permit revocation powers in Permendag 12/2026**, rice exports become **highly sensitive to domestic stock/price conditions.** Any production shortfall or price spike in the 2026 main harvest (typically mid‑year for many rice‑growing regions) could trigger **sudden permit freezes** in H2 2026. ([tridge.com](https://www.tridge.com/news/new-rules-emerge-export-permits-can-be-revok-uyofrlok?utm_source=openai)) - **Coffee & cocoa:** - Exporters looking at Indonesia as an origin in 2026 should align procurement and freight planning with: - **Coffee:** Q3 2026 as the main window for **bulk export flows** of 2026 crop. - **Cocoa:** Q4 2026–Q1 2027 as the main window for the **2026 main crop**, with a smaller **Q2 2026 pulse** from mid‑crop. ([expatindonesia.id](https://expatindonesia.id/2026/indonesias-plantation-exports-gain-momentum-for-2026/?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (TIMING SIGNALS):** ([ahp.id](https://www.ahp.id/indonesia-revises-export-framework-key-changes-to-procedure-and-export-bans/?utm_source=openai))