Research Intel
Hook Candidates
1) Colombo transshipment surge + global rerouting risk: Port of Colombo recorded record TEU volumes in 2025 and double-digit YTD TEU growth in early‑2026, while geopolitical disruptions (Red Sea/Middle East) are causing ship rerouting, sharply higher freight rates, equipment imbalances and schedule unreliability. Setmil-United Cargo's exporter clients (tea, coconut, rubber, apparel) are therefore facing margin pressure, longer lead times and urgent demand for alternative delivery pathways and buyer connections. Angle: pitch Tridge Ark as a turnkey channel that Setmil can originate exporter clients into — Tridge handles buyer matching, alternative routing/fulfilment and end-to-end delivery planning to stabilise margins and reduce schedule risk for exporters.
2) Rapid growth in coconut & value-added agri exports: Coconut products saw 40–45% export revenue growth in 2025 and are continuing strong into 2026 as Sri Lankan exporters push premium, value‑added SKUs (VCO, desiccated coconut, packaged products). These exporters need buyer discovery, packaging/market-entry support and more reliable logistics for smaller, higher-value consignments. Angle: position Tridge Ark as a sales-and-fulfilment channel that brings vetted international buyers and handles logistics execution — Setmil can refer high-potential coconut and specialty-tea exporters who need a managed sourcing/selling service that reduces sales cycle and operational headache.
## Company Profile
SETMIL-UNITED CARGO (PVT) LTD. — freight forwarder based in Sri Lanka. Listed contact: Director Prasad Jinadasa. Operates as a local forwarder/NVOCC-style operator handling ocean and air exports and imports, customs clearance and cargo consolidation for Sri Lankan exporters (tea, coconut and coconut products, rubber, apparel/textiles) and regional transshipment flows via Colombo. Likely mid-sized national forwarder working with plantation exporters, processors and garment factories; positions itself to serve both gateway (export/import) and transshipment customers via Port of Colombo (evidence page: https://www.setmil.com.lk/setmil_united_cargo_ltd-freight.php). No public scale metrics found in search, but target market is Sri Lanka exporters across agri and apparel clusters.
## Pain Points
1) Margin pressure from sharply higher ocean freight rates, war‑risk & bunker surcharges, and equipment imbalance fees that squeeze exporters' FOB margins and create disputes with buyers.
2) Schedule unreliability and longer transit times (Red Sea routing/Cape diversions) forcing urgent sea‑to‑air moves, higher inventory and financing costs for apparel and time‑sensitive tea shipments.
3) Growing demand among exporters (especially coconut/value‑added products and specialty tea) for buyer discovery and end‑to‑end fulfilment for smaller, higher‑value consignments — something many local forwarders do not fully provide.
## Intel Summary
=== MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH ===
=== 1. [COMMODITY TRENDS] ===
Sri Lanka – tea, coconut, rubber export trends, prices, demand/supply into 2026
**Tea**
- **Export volumes & values (latest full year)**
- 2025 tea export volume: **257.44 million kg**, up from **245.79 million kg** in 2024 (**+4.74%**). ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/agriculture/Tea-industry-in-2025-An-overview/31-787557?utm_source=openai))
- Export earnings 2025: **Rs 453.3 billion (~US$ 1.51 billion)** vs **Rs 433.5 billion (US$ 1.43 billion)** in 2024 (**+4.6% value** in LKR). Average **FOB about US$ 5.84–5.88/kg**. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/agriculture/Tea-industry-in-2025-An-overview/31-787557?utm_source=openai))
- Industry sources put 2025 tea export earnings in a range **Rs 452–457 billion**, about **+5% YoY** in nominal rupees. ([ceylontoday.lk](https://ceylontoday.lk/2026/01/10/tea-exports-up-rs-452-457b-industry/?utm_source=openai))
- **Early 2026 dynamics**
- January 2026: tea export **volume +7% YoY**, with **average FOB up 5.6% in LKR** versus Jan‑2025, indicating firming prices despite global freight and macro noise. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/business/Tea-export-volume-up-7--YoY-in-January--average-FOB-up-5-6-/34-788845?utm_source=openai))
- Q1 2026: tea exports **fell to 60.36 million kg** from **63.21 million kg** in Q1 2025 (‑4.5%), and **National Tea Sale Average price also down**, so the sector entered 2026 with **weaker production, volumes and prices** vs prior year’s strong base. ([dailymirror.lk](https://www.dailymirror.lk/print/business-news/Tea-Industry-Overview-of-2026-First-Quarter/273-339088?utm_source=openai))
- **Demand / market mix**
- 2025 growth was driven mainly by **volume recovery** after weather and fertilizer‑related constraints in earlier years; dollar prices were roughly flat to slightly higher (FOB +US$0.01 YoY). ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/agriculture/Tea-industry-in-2025-An-overview/31-787557?utm_source=openai))
- Traditional markets (Iraq, Russia/CIS, Türkiye, Middle East, North Africa) still dominate; some markets like **Türkiye and Libya showed double‑digit volume growth in 2025**, whereas Russia volumes softened. ([teasrilanka.org](https://teasrilanka.org/market-reports?utm_source=openai))
- **Price level and 2026 outlook**
- 2025 average export prices:
- **National Tea Sale Average** around **Rs 1,760/kg (≈US$ 5.84/kg)**, essentially flat in USD while slightly down in LKR vs 2024. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/agriculture/Tea-industry-in-2025-An-overview/31-787557?utm_source=openai))
- 2026 so far:
- Industry commentary expects **“buoyant” Orthodox tea prices Jan–Mar 2026** thanks to **tight global Orthodox supply** and quality season, but actual Q1 data show weaker averages vs Q1‑2025, implying buyers are price‑sensitive and global macro/freight risks are weighing on bids. ([ceylontoday.lk](https://ceylontoday.lk/2026/01/10/tea-exports-up-rs-452-457b-industry/?utm_source=openai))
- Net: tea entered 2026 from a **higher‑volume, high‑earning 2025**, but Q1‑2026 shows **modest softening in both volumes and unit prices**; demand remains structurally firm but more selective on quality and price.
---
**Coconut (and coconut‑based products)**
- **Export performance and growth**
- Coconut products were one of the fastest‑growing agri export clusters:
- CDA bulletin comparison Jan–Oct **2024 vs 2025**: **coconut product export revenue in LKR +45%**. ([cda.gov.lk](https://www.cda.gov.lk/web/images/pdf/export_perfo/2025/2025_MON_BULLETIN_OCT_-_T1.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- CDA Nov‑2025 monitoring: **Jan–Nov 2025 coconut product exports reached Rs 338.45 billion (~US$ 1.13 billion), +43% vs Jan–Nov 2024**. ([nutioils.com](https://www.nutioils.com/blog/monitoring-bulletin-november-2025?utm_source=openai))
- National accounts confirm **coconut export income up 17.4% in 2024** (current prices) within agricultural exports, and coconut remains a key contributor in 2025 as well. ([statistics.gov.lk](https://www.statistics.gov.lk/Resource/en/NationalAccounts/2010/reports/AnnualReports/Annual2024.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- **Volumes / production**
- Coconut production showed strong recovery: **coconut output +40.6% YoY in Nov 2025**; coconut oil production Jan–Nov 2025 up **8.4%** vs same period 2024. ([cbsl.gov.lk](https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/statistics/agriculture_data_bulletin_2025_december_e.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- Higher nut availability allowed exporters to expand **desiccated coconut, virgin/pressed oils, coconut milk/cream, charcoal, coir & rubberized coir** shipments without the severe domestic tightness seen during the 2022–2023 crisis.
- **Price and demand**
- CDA daily/weekly bulletins for late 2025 show **elevated but stabilizing export prices** for virgin coconut oil and desiccated coconut compared with 2023, supported by:
- **Strong demand from EU and North America** for plant‑based, clean‑label fats,
- Regional buyers in Middle East and South Asia substituting away from more expensive edible oils at times. ([cda.gov.lk](https://cda.gov.lk/web/index.php?id=16&lang=en&option=com_content&view=article&utm_source=openai))
- Industry commentary (Cocommunity, CDA quotes) describes Sri Lanka as **leveraging premium positioning and value‑added processing** (organic, fair‑trade, specialty fractions) rather than competing purely on price. ([coconutcommunity.org](https://coconutcommunity.org/files/document/20250602150028pub-cocommunity-newsletter.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- **2026 implications**
- On current trajectory, coconut products are **on track to approach or exceed US$ 1.2 bn in 2026** if 2025 growth rates hold and production remains strong (inference based on 2025 Jan–Nov US$1.13 bn and continued YoY growth into early‑2026 export aggregates). ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/top-story/Exports-kick-off-2026-with-highest-January-earnings-in-a-decade/26-788770?utm_source=openai))
- Policy statements have floated a target of pushing coconut exports from **US$ ~850m toward US$ 1 billion+ annually**, which is now close to being realized given recent data. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chathuranga_Abeysinghe?utm_source=openai))
---
**Rubber and rubber‑based products**
- **Export earnings trend**
- 2024: Export earnings from **rubber and rubber finished products reached US$ 1,001.5 million (+7.7% YoY)** vs 2023, driven by:
- **Industrial & surgical gloves +23.1%**,
- **Pneumatic & retreaded tyres/tubes +1.4%**. ([rubberworld.com](https://rubberworld.com/sri-lank-rubber-and-finish-products-exports-increase-by-7-in-2024/?utm_source=openai))
- 2025: rubber exports **declined 5.56% to US$ 945.7 million** vs 2024, largely on a **12.76% drop in tyre and tube exports**; gloves and some specialty items held up better. ([lankawebsites.com](https://lankawebsites.com/blog/imports-exports/rubber-exports-from-sri-lanka-trends-markets-and-how-to-get-started?utm_source=openai))
- **Product and market mix**
- Portfolio is dominated by **industrial/surgical gloves, tyres & tubes, solid tyres, rubber flooring and industrial goods**. Key markets include **US, EU, Japan, India, South Africa, Thailand**; 2025 commentary notes **growing penetration in India, South Africa and Thailand**, diversifying beyond traditional OECD buyers. ([lankawebsites.com](https://lankawebsites.com/blog/imports-exports/rubber-exports-from-sri-lanka-trends-markets-and-how-to-get-started?utm_source=openai))
- **Price and demand drivers into 2026**
- 2025 weakness in tyres aligns with **slower global freight and automotive demand**, as well as margin pressure from cheaper suppliers in ASEAN. Gloves saw steadier demand as global healthcare and industrial safety consumption normalised from post‑COVID highs but remained above pre‑2020 levels. ([lankawebsites.com](https://lankawebsites.com/blog/imports-exports/rubber-exports-from-sri-lanka-trends-markets-and-how-to-get-started?utm_source=openai))
- Policy target remains to grow rubber exports toward **US$ 2 billion** medium term; current ~US$ 0.95–1.0 bn level in 2024–2025 shows a **gap but an underlying up‑trend over the decade**. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubber_production_in_Sri_Lanka?utm_source=openai))
- 2026 outlook:
- With Sri Lanka’s total exports up **5.6% in 2025 to ~US$ 17.25 bn**, agricultural exports (tea, coconut, rubber) grew **17.5% YoY in January 2026**, suggesting **rubber exports are recovering alongside wider agri shipments**, though specific 2026 rubber figures are not yet fully published. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/top-story/Exports-kick-off-2026-with-highest-January-earnings-in-a-decade/26-788770?utm_source=openai))
**Net for DIMENSION 1:**
- **Tea:** 2025 was a **volume‑and‑earning recovery year** with flat‑to‑slightly higher dollar prices; early 2026 shows **moderation** in volume and price vs strong 2025 comps.
- **Coconut:** **Fastest‑growing cluster**, with **+40–45% export revenue growth** in 2025 on strong production and premium/value‑added demand; momentum appears to continue into 2026.
- **Rubber:** **Mixed** – strong 2024, **earnings pulled back ~‑5.6% in 2025**, particularly in tyres; 2026 outlook modestly positive but dependent on global freight/auto cycles and competition.
---
=== 2. [MARKET EVENTS] ===
Sri Lanka shipping market 2026 – Colombo port congestion, container throughput, terminal operations, South Asia transshipment trends
**Container throughput levels and growth**
- **Record year 2025**
- Port of Colombo handled **8.29 million TEUs in 2025**, its highest annual throughput on record. This represented **~5–6% YoY growth** over 2024 (varies slightly by source but within this band). ([porttechnology.org](https://www.porttechnology.org/port-of-colombo-sets-throughput-record-in-2025/?utm_source=openai))
- Data from a 2026 South Asia Container Market Report show throughputs (Mn TEUs) and YoY growth:
- 2021: 7.79 (+5.8%),
- 2022: 8.29 (+6.4%),
- 2023: 7.25 (‑12.1%),
- 2024: 6.87 (‑5.2%),
- 2025: 6.95 (+1.2%) for some components; the same report also acknowledges **record 8.29m TEUs including all terminals**, illustrating differences in coverage (central bank vs port‑wide counting). ([containersindia.in](https://containersindia.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/CA-Final-Market-Report-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- **2026 year‑to‑date (Jan–Apr)**
- By April 2026, Port of Colombo had handled **2,915,004 TEUs**, a **+13.9% increase** vs the same period in 2025 (2,559,847 TEUs). April alone saw **+22% YoY** throughput growth, indicating **strong momentum in early 2026**. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/front-page/Colombo-Port-records-22-growth-in-container-throughput-in-April/44-791703?utm_source=openai))
**Colombo’s role in South Asia transshipment**
- **Transshipment share**
- As of 2025, **transshipment accounted for roughly 75–80% of Colombo’s container throughput**, with domestic (gateway) cargo growing faster but still a minority share. A Central Bank‑based piece notes that between Jan–Oct 2025, **total 6.92m TEUs handled were up 7.1% YoY**, driven by **sharp growth in domestic cargo** while transshipment remained the backbone. ([maritimegateway.com](https://www.maritimegateway.com/stronger-local-trade-drives-colombo-port-throughput-growth-in-2025/?utm_source=openai))
- Transshipment volumes specifically rose **5.1% YoY to 5.52 million TEUs in 2025** (up from 5.25m in 2024), underscoring Colombo’s core function as a **hub for India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Middle East cargo**. ([containersindia.in](https://containersindia.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/CA-Final-Market-Report-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- **Competitive and network developments (2025–2026)**
- **MSC signed a new terminal service agreement in Dec‑2025** with Sri Lanka Ports Authority, reaffirming commitment to Colombo as a regional hub for its mainline services. ([porttechnology.org](https://www.porttechnology.org/port-of-colombo-sets-throughput-record-in-2025/?utm_source=openai))
- Completion of **East Container Terminal (ECT) and ongoing development of West Container Terminal (WCT)** are expected by **late‑2026**, adding deep‑water capacity and enabling the port to handle “a significantly larger volume of containers” and larger vessels. ([newswire.lk](https://www.newswire.lk/2026/01/02/colombo-port-records-highest-ever-container-volume-in-2025/?utm_source=openai))
- Regional context: Indian ports (Nhava Sheva/JNPA, Mundra, Vizhinjam under construction) are gradually increasing direct calls, but as of 2025–26, Colombo remains the **primary transshipment hub in the northern Indian Ocean**, particularly for East‑West services via the Middle East/Suez and to Southeast Asia. ([containersindia.in](https://containersindia.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/CA-Final-Market-Report-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**Congestion, operational performance, and risk environment**
- **Current congestion**
- There is **no major chronic congestion reported at Colombo in early‑2026**; throughput growth and new infrastructure have generally **reduced turnaround times compared with the post‑COVID and 2022 crisis period**. Instead, the main challenges relate to **global rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope** and **vessel schedule unreliability** due to geopolitical risks, more than local port capacity constraints. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai))
- **Freight and transit‑time disruptions**
- A March 2026 CMA Sri Lanka forum highlighted that **Middle East conflict‑related diversions** are leading to:
- **Freight rates “double or triple” on some routes** compared with pre‑crisis levels,
- **Extended transit times up to +21 days** when ships reroute via the Cape of Good Hope rather than Suez,
- Knock‑on disruptions in **equipment positioning, storage and inland transport**. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai))
- For Sri Lanka, this means:
- Importers/exports see **higher ocean freight and bunker surcharges**,
- **Schedule reliability** of vessels calling Colombo is reduced, which complicates export planning (especially for apparel and tea which are time‑sensitive), even if port‑side congestion is manageable.
- **Terminal operations and investment signals**
- Key terminals:
- **JCT & ECT** (SLPA‑operated),
- **SAGT** (public‑private),
- **CICT** (Adani‑linked, deep‑water). All contributed to the 8.29m TEU record in 2025. ([newswire.lk](https://www.newswire.lk/2026/01/02/colombo-port-records-highest-ever-container-volume-in-2025/?utm_source=openai))
- Investments in **automation, yard equipment and deeper berths** at CICT/ECT and WCT are aimed at:
- Securing more **ultra‑large container vessel (ULCV) calls**,
- Reducing **berth waiting times** and improving crane productivity,
- Positioning Colombo versus emerging Indian deep‑sea hubs. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/front-page/Colombo-Port-records-22-growth-in-container-throughput-in-April/44-791703?utm_source=openai))
**Net for DIMENSION 2:**
- 2025: **record container throughput, modest but positive growth** after a slump in 2023–24; transshipment still **~75–80% of volume**.
- 2026 YTD: **double‑digit TEU growth (+13.9% Jan–Apr)**, no structural congestion reported, but **global rerouting and Middle East risks are lengthening transit times and inflating freight costs**.
- Capacity additions at **ECT and WCT by 2026** should allow further growth and maintain Colombo’s role as the **primary Indian Ocean transshipment hub**, though competition from Indian ports is structurally rising.
---
=== 3. [DEMAND SIGNALS] ===
Sri Lanka exporters’ freight pain points 2026 – container shortages, seasonal/monsoon & labour disruption; apparel and tea buyers’ sourcing shifts
*(This dimension is less data‑rich; much comes from trade press, industry forums and macro indicators rather than hard statistics.)*
**Freight pain points for Sri Lankan exporters (2025–2026)**
- **Freight rate volatility and war‑risk surcharges**
- CMA Sri Lanka forum (March 2026) emphasises:
- **Container and bulk freight rates have “doubled or tripled” on some routes** due to the Middle East conflict and Suez/Cape rerouting,
- This impacts **all export sectors** – apparel, tea, rubber, coconut products – via higher CIF prices and squeezed margins,
- Exporters face **months of elevated costs even if hostilities cease quickly**, as capacity and schedules take time to normalise. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai))
- **Equipment imbalances & container shortages**
- While outright shortages are not as extreme as 2021, shipper associations and logistics commentary note **local equipment tightness** in 2025–26 on specific corridors (e.g., **40’ HC boxes to Europe/US**), linked to re‑routing and extended round‑trip times:
- Longer voyages via Cape of Good Hope **tie up equipment**, reducing available boxes in Colombo,
- Higher repositioning costs are partially passed on to exporters through **equipment imbalance surcharges**. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai))
- **Schedule unreliability and lead‑time risk**
- Middle East and Red Sea disruptions cause **vessel bunching, blank sailings and last‑minute schedule changes** for services calling Colombo, which:
- Forces exporters (especially apparel vendors to EU/US brands) to **ship earlier or upgrade from sea to air** on urgent orders,
- Increases **inventory and financing costs** as buyers request higher safety stock. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai))
- **Cost pass‑through challenges**
- Many Sri Lankan exporters operate on **FOB contracts** with global buyers; **ocean freight is nominally on buyer’s account**, but:
- Buyers push for **discounts or tighter pricing** to offset higher logistics costs,
- Some contracts are shifting to **CIF or DDP structures** for value‑added goods, moving more freight risk to exporters and their local forwarders (reported in trade association discussions and logistics press). ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai))
**Seasonal peaks, monsoon and labour disruptions**
- **Seasonality and monsoon impacts**
- Tea and rubber tapping/processing, as well as coconut harvesting, are **highly seasonal**, with **Southwest and Northeast monsoons** affecting production and inland transport.
- 2025–2026 agricultural bulletins note **significant month‑to‑month fluctuations in tea and coconut output**, driven by rainfall variability; exporters report:
- **Delayed cargo consolidation** in heavy‑rain months,
- Increased use of **buffer stocks in Colombo warehouses** to meet shipment windows when estate roads are flooded. ([cbsl.gov.lk](https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/statistics/agriculture_data_bulletin_2025_december_e.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- **Labour and port operations**
- Periodic labour actions (port and transport unions) and fuel‑price‑related protests remain **latent risks**, but no large‑scale port shutdown has been reported in 2025–early‑2026.
- Plantation wage negotiations periodically affect **harvesting intensity and short‑term supply**, particularly in tea; this can **compress shipping windows** when estates rush to move leaf/processed tea once disputes ease. ([dailymirror.lk](https://www.dailymirror.lk/print/business-news/Tea-Industry-Overview-of-2026-First-Quarter/273-339088?utm_source=openai))
**Apparel and tea buyers – sourcing and demand shifts (2025–2026)**
- **Macro export demand signals**
- Sri Lanka’s **total exports reached ~US$ 17.25 billion in 2025 (+5.6% YoY)**, achieving about **95% of the official US$18.2 bn target**. **Agricultural exports in January 2026 were up 17.5% YoY**, led by tea, coconut, rubber, while textiles/garments remained the largest single category. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/top-story/Exports-kick-off-2026-with-highest-January-earnings-in-a-decade/26-788770?utm_source=openai))
- This indicates **buyers continue to place orders in Sri Lanka despite freight challenges**, but are adjusting product mix and timelines.
- **Apparel buyers**
- Apparel is still Sri Lanka’s top export; 2024–2025 data show apparel exports driving the country’s **record US$16.17 bn total exports in 2024 and growth in 2025**. ([publicfinance.lk](https://www.publicfinance.lk/en/topics/export-earnings-hit-all-time-high-of-16-17-b-in-2024-1737937653?utm_source=openai))
- Sourcing trends inferred from trade and brand commentary:
- **Nearshoring to Europe** (e.g., Turkey, Eastern Europe, North Africa) and **diversification into other Asian suppliers** (Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia) continue, but Sri Lanka retains a **niche in higher‑value, smaller‑run, compliance‑intensive orders** (lingerie, performance wear, ethical/sustainable lines).
- Buyers are negotiating **more flexible lead times and multimodal routings** to manage Red Sea risk (e.g., mixing sea‑air via Dubai or Singapore when delays occur). ([supplychainandlogistics.org](https://supplychainandlogistics.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/annual-review-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai))
- **Tea buyers**
- For 2025, global demand for **Orthodox teas** (Sri Lanka’s strength) remained robust:
- Total exports +4.74% in volume and +~4.6–5% in value; key markets (Middle East, Russia/CIS, Turkey, Libya) mostly **maintained or increased volumes** despite currency and geopolitical issues. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/agriculture/Tea-industry-in-2025-An-overview/31-787557?utm_source=openai))
- However, Q1‑2026 saw **lower export volumes (‑4.5% YoY) and weaker average prices**, implying:
- Some buyers are **destocking** or **trading down quality/grades**,
- Competing origins (Kenya, India) and exchange‑rate shifts are affecting relative prices. ([dailymirror.lk](https://www.dailymirror.lk/print/business-news/Tea-Industry-Overview-of-2026-First-Quarter/273-339088?utm_source=openai))
- Several trade pieces suggest **increased interest in value‑added teas** (packets, tea bags, specialty blends) from markets such as **Latvia, Eastern Europe, and MENA**, though absolute volumes are small; this is a **demand signal for more branded and packaged tea** versus bulk. ([srilankabusiness.com](https://www.srilankabusiness.com/ebooks/export-performance-indicators-of-sri-lanka-2024.pdf?utm_source=openai))
**How these signals intersect for exporters in 2026**
- **Margin pressure + working‑capital strain**
- Exporters of tea, coconut and rubber are benefitting from **strong or recovering demand**, but:
- **Freight rates and surcharges are cutting into FOB margins**,
- **Longer transit times** force higher in‑transit and buffer inventories, especially for apparel and time‑sensitive teas,
- Access to trade finance and FX stability remain important for managing these extended cash cycles. ([ft.lk](https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai))
- **Operational responses**
- Many Sri Lankan exporters are:
- **Consolidating volumes** with a smaller number of preferred carriers/forwarders,
- **Re‑timing shipments** ahead of monsoon windows and holiday peaks in destination markets,
- Pushing further into **value‑added and premium segments** (organic coconut products, specialty teas, high‑end apparel) where buyers are less price‑elastic and more willing to share logistics costs. ([nutioils.com](https://www.nutioils.com/blog/monitoring-bulletin-november-2025?utm_source=openai))
**Net for DIMENSION 3:**
- Pain points in 2026 are driven less by local port congestion and more by **global freight volatility, equipment imbalances and schedule risk**, overlayed on **seasonal production/monsoon variability**.
- Apparel and tea buyers are **not exiting Sri Lanka**, but are **tightening prices, diversifying sourcing options, and demanding more reliability and flexibility**; Sri Lankan exporters are responding by **moving up the value chain and adjusting logistics strategies**.
Sources:
• Tea industry in 2025: An overview | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/agriculture/Tea-industry-in-2025-An-overview/31-787557?utm_source=openai
• Tea industry in 2025: An overview | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/agriculture/Tea-industry-in-2025-An-overview/31-787557?utm_source=openai
• Tea exports up Rs 452-457B-industry - Ceylon Today
https://ceylontoday.lk/2026/01/10/tea-exports-up-rs-452-457b-industry/?utm_source=openai
• Tea export volume up 7% YoY in January; average FOB up 5.6% | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/business/Tea-export-volume-up-7--YoY-in-January--average-FOB-up-5-6-/34-788845?utm_source=openai
• Daily Mirror - Sri Lanka Latest Breaking News and Headlines - Print Edition Tea Industry Overview of 2026 First Quarter
https://www.dailymirror.lk/print/business-news/Tea-Industry-Overview-of-2026-First-Quarter/273-339088?utm_source=openai
• Tea industry in 2025: An overview | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/agriculture/Tea-industry-in-2025-An-overview/31-787557?utm_source=openai
• Tea exports up Rs 452-457B-industry - Ceylon Today
https://ceylontoday.lk/2026/01/10/tea-exports-up-rs-452-457b-industry/?utm_source=openai
• Table 01
EXPORT PERFORMANCE OF COCONUT PRODUCTS -
https://www.cda.gov.lk/web/images/pdf/export_perfo/2025/2025_MON_BULLETIN_OCT_-_T1.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Nutioils - Premium Sri Lankan Coconut Products | Virgin Coconut Oil
https://www.nutioils.com/blog/monitoring-bulletin-november-2025?utm_source=openai
• 2024
National Accounts
of Sri Lanka
Department
https://www.statistics.gov.lk/Resource/en/NationalAccounts/2010/reports/AnnualReports/Annual2024.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Economic Research Department
https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/statistics/agriculture_data_bulletin_2025_december_e.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Coconut Development Authority
https://cda.gov.lk/web/index.php?id=16&lang=en&option=com_content&view=article&utm_source=openai
• The
Cocommunity
Monthly Newsletter of the Internat
https://coconutcommunity.org/files/document/20250602150028pub-cocommunity-newsletter.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Exports kick off 2026 with highest January earnings in a decade | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/top-story/Exports-kick-off-2026-with-highest-January-earnings-in-a-decade/26-788770?utm_source=openai
• Chathuranga Abeysinghe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chathuranga_Abeysinghe?utm_source=openai
• Sri Lank rubber and finish products exports increase by 7 percent in 2024 - Rubber World - The Technical Service Magazine for the Rubber Industry
https://rubberworld.com/sri-lank-rubber-and-finish-products-exports-increase-by-7-in-2024/?utm_source=openai
• Rubber Exports from Sri Lanka: Trends, Markets, and How to G... | Lanka Websites
https://lankawebsites.com/blog/imports-exports/rubber-exports-from-sri-lanka-trends-markets-and-how-to-get-started?utm_source=openai
• Rubber Exports from Sri Lanka: Trends, Markets, and How to G... | Lanka Websites
https://lankawebsites.com/blog/imports-exports/rubber-exports-from-sri-lanka-trends-markets-and-how-to-get-started?utm_source=openai
• Rubber Exports from Sri Lanka: Trends, Markets, and How to G... | Lanka Websites
https://lankawebsites.com/blog/imports-exports/rubber-exports-from-sri-lanka-trends-markets-and-how-to-get-started?utm_source=openai
• Rubber production in Sri Lanka
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubber_production_in_Sri_Lanka?utm_source=openai
• Exports kick off 2026 with highest January earnings in a decade | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/top-story/Exports-kick-off-2026-with-highest-January-earnings-in-a-decade/26-788770?utm_source=openai
• Port of Colombo sets throughput record in 2025 - Port Technology International
https://www.porttechnology.org/port-of-colombo-sets-throughput-record-in-2025/?utm_source=openai
• 2026
SOUTH ASIA
CONTAINER MARKET REPORT
2026
Spo
https://containersindia.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/CA-Final-Market-Report-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Colombo Port records 22% growth in container throughput in April | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/front-page/Colombo-Port-records-22-growth-in-container-throughput-in-April/44-791703?utm_source=openai
• Stronger local trade drives Colombo Port throughput growth in 2025 | Maritime Gateway
https://www.maritimegateway.com/stronger-local-trade-drives-colombo-port-throughput-growth-in-2025/?utm_source=openai
• 2026
SOUTH ASIA
CONTAINER MARKET REPORT
2026
Spo
https://containersindia.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/CA-Final-Market-Report-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Port of Colombo sets throughput record in 2025 - Port Technology International
https://www.porttechnology.org/port-of-colombo-sets-throughput-record-in-2025/?utm_source=openai
• Colombo Port records highest-ever container volume in 2025 - Newswire
https://www.newswire.lk/2026/01/02/colombo-port-records-highest-ever-container-volume-in-2025/?utm_source=openai
• 2026
SOUTH ASIA
CONTAINER MARKET REPORT
2026
Spo
https://containersindia.in/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/CA-Final-Market-Report-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai
• Supply disruptions to outlast Mideast conflict, keeping import and energy costs elevated: Expert | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai
• Supply disruptions to outlast Mideast conflict, keeping import and energy costs elevated: Expert | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai
• Colombo Port records highest-ever container volume in 2025 - Newswire
https://www.newswire.lk/2026/01/02/colombo-port-records-highest-ever-container-volume-in-2025/?utm_source=openai
• Colombo Port records 22% growth in container throughput in April | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/front-page/Colombo-Port-records-22-growth-in-container-throughput-in-April/44-791703?utm_source=openai
• Supply disruptions to outlast Mideast conflict, keeping import and energy costs elevated: Expert | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai
• Supply disruptions to outlast Mideast conflict, keeping import and energy costs elevated: Expert | Daily FT
https://www.ft.lk/business/Supply-disruptions-to-outlast-Mideast-conflict-keeping-import-and-energy-costs-elevated-Expert/34-790085?utm_source=openai