## Company Profile IATA Israel (IATA national office / local representation). Yaniv Sorany is listed as Principal, IATA Certification. The office represents IATA’s global standards, certification programs and industry guidance in Israel; primary stakeholders are airlines, ground handlers, freight forwarders, cargo terminal operators and regulators. It is not a commercial forwarder but a standards/certification body that works with the Israeli aviation ecosystem on safety, cargo standards, and operational certification (including cargo handling, cold‑chain and dangerous goods processes). Scale: national office operating as IATA’s Israel contact point and industry convenor (engages multiple carriers, handlers and forwarders across Ben Gurion and regional airports). ## Pain Points 1) Capacity volatility during perishable export peaks: Israel’s export seasons (avocados Oct–Mar; cherries May–June; citrus Nov–Mar) create compressed, time‑sensitive demand spikes. With belly‑hold ≈2/3 of capacity and frequent short‑term security disruptions (2025 Houthi strikes, 2026 missile incidents) Israeli exporters and forwarders face sudden space shortages and rate spikes that stress operational and certification processes. 2) Difficulty matching exporters to reliable intercontinental capacity and buyers during tight windows: small/medium growers (cherries, niche citrus) need fast buyer matching and guaranteed delivery options (including charters or premium freighters) when sea is too slow or schedules are disrupted. 3) Operational/compliance friction at scale: certification and cold‑chain requirements (handling, documentation, DG, phytosanitary timing) become bottlenecks when shipments must be re‑routed, consolidated, or switched from sea to air at short notice — creating a need for a delivery channel that can both originate exporters and coordinate compliant logistics end‑to‑end. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. MARKET EVENTS – ISRAEL AIR CARGO MARKET 2026 (CAPACITY, BELLYHOLD VS FREIGHTER, P2F TRENDS) === **Overall Israel air cargo throughput & growth** - Ben Gurion Airport handled **~227,100 tons of cargo in 2024**, up **32.7% vs 2023** (cargo aircraft only, excluding belly freight).([iaa.gov.il](https://www.iaa.gov.il/media/21nahh3j/%D7%93%D7%95%D7%97-%D7%97%D7%95%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%99-%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%AA-%D7%A0%D7%95%D7%91%D7%9E%D7%91%D7%A8-2024-%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%A9.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - For **Jan–Jul 2025** cargo movement (all cargo) at Ben Gurion reached **208,800 tons**, a **4.85% YoY increase** vs 199,135 tons in the same period of 2024. July 2025 alone saw **35,531 tons**, **+16% YoY**.([en.port2port.co.il](https://en.port2port.co.il/article/Air-Transport/Airports/Cargo-Movement-at-Ben-Gurion-Airport-Surges-by-16-in-July/?utm_source=openai)) - A subsequent disruption: Yemeni/Houthi-linked attacks and threats contributed to a **12% month‑on‑month drop in Ben Gurion air‑cargo volumes in April 2025 vs March**, from about 34,929 to **~30,800 “cargo units”** (airport‑reported metric).([yemenextra.net](https://www.yemenextra.net/2025/05/27/yemeni-strikes-cripple-cargo-at-ben-gurion-airport-and-disrupt-occupiers-airspace/?utm_source=openai)) - This underlines that while the structural trend is positive, **security events are a material short‑term downside risk for capacity and schedules** going into 2026. **Bellyhold vs freighter capacity – global context applied to Israel** No 2026 Israel‑only split exists yet, but global data and Ben Gurion fleet patterns give a directional picture: - Globally, by early 2026 **belly‑hold capacity accounts for roughly two‑thirds of total air‑cargo capacity**, with **dedicated freighter capacity down ~7% YoY**.([aircargoweek.com](https://aircargoweek.com/air-cargo-enters-2026-balanced-but-brittle/?utm_source=openai)) - IATA’s **Dec‑2025** and early‑**2026** market analyses show: - 2025: dedicated freighter capacity up **~5–6%**, while belly capacity grew faster (**+6.5% YoY** on key routes), driven by passenger traffic recovery.([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-cargo-market-analysis-december-2025/?utm_source=openai)) - Entering 2026: the market is “**balanced but brittle**” – demand solid, but with **less slack capacity**, meaning disruptions (geo‑political, safety) can quickly tighten space and raise rates.([aircargoweek.com](https://aircargoweek.com/air-cargo-enters-2026-balanced-but-brittle/?utm_source=openai)) - At Ben Gurion, the **top cargo‑carrying passenger airlines by belly cargo in 2025** included El Al, Turkish Airlines, Emirates, etc.; El Al alone carried **~59,600 tons of belly cargo in 2025**, a **58.3% share** of belly cargo volumes.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Gurion_Airport?utm_source=openai)) - El Al operates **no dedicated freighters** (its last 747‑400F was retired in 2019), so **all of its uplift is belly‑hold** on passenger 737/787 fleet, important for high‑value and perishable exports.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Al?utm_source=openai)) **Freighter operators & security‑related swings** - Ben Gurion cargo statistics (Nov‑2024 YTD) show a diversified **freighter carrier mix** (DHL Air, Silk Way, Compass, various Eastern European carriers, etc.) with some operators showing triple‑digit growth vs 2023 as Israel re‑routed logistics during Red Sea/Levant disruptions.([iaa.gov.il](https://www.iaa.gov.il/media/21nahh3j/%D7%93%D7%95%D7%97-%D7%97%D7%95%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%99-%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%AA-%D7%A0%D7%95%D7%D9%91%D7%9E%D7%91%D7%A8-2024-%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%A9.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Yemeni‑linked strikes in 2025 led to a **~19.9% drop in Silk Way Airlines’ activity** on Israel routes in a short period, highlighting how **one or two key freighter operators can materially shift available outbound capacity** for time‑sensitive cargo.([yemenextra.net](https://www.yemenextra.net/2025/05/27/yemeni-strikes-cripple-cargo-at-ben-gurion-airport-and-disrupt-occupiers-airspace/?utm_source=openai)) **Israel as a P2F (Passenger‑to‑Freighter) conversion hub** Israel’s main strategic lever in the global air‑cargo system remains **Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI/Bedek)**: - IAI has long been a major global P2F player on **Boeing 767** and **777‑300ERSF (“Big Twin”)** platforms. The 777‑300ERSF offers **~15% more volume than a 747‑400BCF** and can take **47 main‑deck pallets**, positioning IAI at the high‑end widebody freighter segment.([stattimes.com](https://www.stattimes.com/air-cargo/is-p2f-conversion-demand-cooling-off-in-2025-1356209?utm_source=openai)) - In **Sept‑2025**, IAI completed certification and first commercial conversion of the **B777‑300ERSF**, marketing it as one of the world’s largest twin‑engine freighters and emphasizing that IAI is “**one of the few**” global players in widebody conversions.([jpost.com](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/article-866028?utm_source=openai)) - In **May‑2026**, IAI announced it had **completed the structural work on its first A330‑300 P2F**, with: - **Ground and flight tests scheduled in 2026**, targeting **certification by end‑2026**.([airdatanews.com](https://www.airdatanews.com/iai-prepares-first-a330-300-freighter-conversion-for-flight-testing/?utm_source=openai)) - A framework agreement with **Avolon for up to 30 A330‑300 conversions between 2025–2028**, ensuring multi‑year P2F throughput in Israel.([air-journal.fr](https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-05-11-iai-acheve-la-structure-du-premier-a330%E2%80%91300-p2f-et-prepare-la-campagne-de-tests-en-vue-dune-certification-5275090.html?utm_source=openai)) - Industry outlooks for 2026 note: - **P2F conversions remain attractive but are now more selective**, with feedstock scarcity (older 767s, A330s) limiting the pace.([acumen.aero](https://www.acumen.aero/blogs/freighter-conversions-in-2026-still-a-play-just-more-selective?utm_source=openai)) - Global **767‑300ER P2F market value was ~$4.2bn in 2025**, projected to reach **$8.7bn by 2034** (CAGR **8.4% 2026–2034**). IAI’s Bedek is cited as having the **longest 767 conversion track record** worldwide.([dataintelo.com](https://dataintelo.com/report/767-300er-passenger-to-freighter-conversion-market?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for 2026 Israel air‑cargo capacity** - **Direct uplift at Ben Gurion**: - Short‑term (2026), Israel’s **export capacity is still dominated by bellyhold space**, especially to European hubs, with freighters filling peak‑season and long‑haul gaps. - The **April–May 2025 attacks and 2026 Iranian missile incident** led to **temporary cuts in passenger loads and flights** (e.g., outbound passengers to US capped, Europe departures also limited), which de facto **reduced belly capacity in early 2026**.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Gurion_Airport?utm_source=openai)) - **Medium‑term (2025–2028)**: - Through **domestic P2F capability**, Israel will not just rely on foreign freighter operators; IAI’s 777‑300ERSF and A330‑300P2F lines should **add several dozen widebody freighters into global fleets** over 2025–2028.([air-journal.fr](https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-05-11-iai-acheve-la-structure-du-premier-a330%E2%80%91300-p2f-et-prepare-la-campagne-de-tests-en-vue-dune-certification-5275090.html?utm_source=openai)) - These aircraft are likely to operate primarily on **intercontinental trunk routes**, but some will serve **Europe–Middle East–Asia corridors** where Israeli perishables and pharma move, indirectly **supporting Israel‑linked capacity and lowering structural risk of bottlenecks**. **Key 2026 directional points** - **Macro**: global air cargo demand in 2026 is forecast to grow **~2.4–2.6%**, slower but positive, with volumes structurally above pre‑COVID levels.([stattimes.com](https://www.stattimes.com/amp/air-cargo/global-air-freight-in-2026-slower-growth-stronger-structural-demand-1357860?utm_source=openai)) - **Structure**: **bellyhold ≈ two‑thirds of capacity**, freighters ~one‑third; Israel mirrors this pattern given the dominance of passenger carriers at Ben Gurion and lack of domestic freighter fleet at El Al.([aircargoweek.com](https://aircargoweek.com/air-cargo-enters-2026-balanced-but-brittle/?utm_source=openai)) - **Risk**: capacity is **“balanced but brittle”** – geopolitical/security shocks and regional airspace closures can quickly constrain Israel‑bound/‑origin capacity despite healthy underlying fleet growth and IAI conversion activity.([aircargoweek.com](https://aircargoweek.com/air-cargo-enters-2026-balanced-but-brittle/?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Market Events)** Ben Gurion cargo stats & airline mix([iaa.gov.il](https://www.iaa.gov.il/media/21nahh3j/%D7%93%D7%95%D7%97-%D7%97%D7%95%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%99-%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%AA-%D7%A0%D7%95%D7%91%D7%9E%D7%91%D7%A8-2024-%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%A9.pdf?utm_source=openai)); Security‑driven cargo swings([yemenextra.net](https://www.yemenextra.net/2025/05/27/yemeni-strikes-cripple-cargo-at-ben-gurion-airport-and-disrupt-occupiers-airspace/?utm_source=openai)); IAI P2F programmes (777‑300ERSF, A330‑300P2F, Avolon framework)([jpost.com](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/article-866028?utm_source=openai)); Global capacity & demand trends 2025‑26 (IATA, trade press)([aircargoweek.com](https://aircargoweek.com/air-cargo-enters-2026-balanced-but-brittle/?utm_source=openai)); Israel air‑freight market overview([6wresearch.com](https://www.6wresearch.com/industry-report/israel-air-freight-market?utm_source=openai)) --- === 2. COMMODITY TRENDS – ISRAELI FRESH PRODUCE EXPORTS (CHERRIES, AVOCADOS, CITRUS), SEASONALITY 2026 === **Avocados** - **Production & export orientation** - Official data cited by an Israeli economic outlet: **Israel produced ~250,000 tons of avocados in 2024**, exceeding the 2022 record of 220,000 tons. About **95% of production is exported to Europe**, mainly the EU.([israeleconomico.com](https://www.israeleconomico.com/economia-y-empresas/en-medio-de-la-guerra-y-las-tarifas-israel-exporta-miles-de-toneladas-de-aguacate/?utm_source=openai)) - OECD agricultural support documentation explicitly notes avocado as an **export‑oriented commodity with no export restrictions**, confirming export‑driven supply.([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/topics/policy-issues/agricultural-policy-monitoring/psecse-mon2025-cookbooks/cookbook-isr-2025.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Trade volumes & destinations** - UN Comtrade/WITS HS 080440 data (2024): - To the **Netherlands** alone, Israel exported **16,103,000 kg (~16,100 tons)** of avocados in 2024.([wits.worldbank.org](https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ISR/year/2024/tradeflow/Exports/partner/ALL/product/080440?utm_source=openai)) - The Netherlands is a key **EU distribution hub**, so much of this is re‑exported to other EU markets (Germany, France, Scandinavia, etc.). - OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 shows **global avocado exports at ~2.8 million tons in 2024, +2% YoY**, with **Israel among the growth contributors** alongside Kenya and South Africa.([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/07/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_3eb15914/601276cd-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Seasonality (Israel origin)** - Israeli avocado export season typically **starts in October**, peaks through **winter to early spring**, and tapers off by **April–May**, with varieties (e.g., Ettinger, Hass) spreading the window. Exporter commentary for 2024‑25 confirms: “**2024 was a good year for us and the 2024‑25 season started well in October**,” with shipments targeting Europe.([agf.nl](https://www.agf.nl/article/9691918/zware-regenval-in-israel-vertraagt-avocado-oogst/?utm_source=openai)) - **2026 outlook** - With 2024 production at **quarter‑million‑tonne scale** and **>90% export share**, Israel will remain a **meaningful off‑season avocado supplier to Europe** in 2026, especially **Oct–Mar**. Weather shocks (heavy rains, as in early 2025) can **delay harvest** and compress export peaks into shorter periods, which has knock‑on effects on air vs sea modal choice when shipment windows tighten.([agf.nl](https://www.agf.nl/article/9691918/zware-regenval-in-israel-vertraagt-avocado-oogst/?utm_source=openai)) **Cherries** - **Production baseline** - FAOSTAT‑based estimates put **Israeli cherry production at ~4,003 tons in 2024**, broadly stable vs recent years.([helgilibrary.com](https://www.helgilibrary.com/indicators/cherry-production/israel/?utm_source=openai)) - Production is concentrated in **northern highlands** (Golan, Upper Galilee) where cool winters allow temperate fruit; these are smaller volumes compared with avocado/citrus but **higher unit value**. - **Trade orientation** - Detailed Cherry export statistics by country for Israel are sparse; Israel is a **small player globally** (US, Turkey, Chile, EU dominate). USDA FAS cherry reviews focus on large exporters and do not list Israel as a major origin, implying **exports are niche, specialty‑market oriented** rather than bulk commodity.([fas.usda.gov](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/production/commodity/0579305?utm_source=openai)) - **Seasonality** - Cherries from northern Israel generally hit **late April–June**, with **peak harvest in May** (similar to other Mediterranean producers). Tourism/consumer guidance for Israeli produce notes that in April–early May, **winter fruit is declining while cherries and early stone fruit begin to appear**, with most citrus still available but after peak.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/TravelIsrael/comments/1q4c1jp/israeli_produce_in_season/?utm_source=openai)) - **2026 implication** - For 2026, assume **limited but high‑value cherry export windows** **(May–June)**, likely **air‑shipped to nearby premium EU and Gulf markets** when prices justify the mode — but volumes remain too small to drive macro cargo trends. **Citrus (oranges, grapefruit, easy peelers, lemons)** - **Production & exports** - Israel has long been a **major citrus exporter**, historically shipping **oranges, grapefruits, and easy‑peelers** to Europe. While recent FAO series are older, multiple sources confirm citrus as a **core export pillar** alongside avocados and dates.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Israel?utm_source=openai)) - As a reference point on another flagship fruit: **date exports reached ~60.6 thousand tons in 2024** valued at **$312.7m**, showing the scale that export‑oriented tree crops can achieve; citrus tonnages are of similar order but more fragmented by variety.([divercitytimes.com](https://divercitytimes.com/agriculture/trade/israel-export-of-dates?utm_source=openai)) - **Seasonality** - Consumer/visitor guidance for Israel (Jan‑2026) indicates: - **Most citrus is in season through winter and into spring**, with some varieties lasting into **May–June**. - By early April, citrus is somewhat **past peak but still widely available**, overlapping with early stone fruit and cherries.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/TravelIsrael/comments/1q4c1jp/israeli_produce_in_season/?utm_source=openai)) - This aligns with standard Mediterranean citrus calendar: - **Oranges & grapefruits**: main export window **Nov–Mar**. - **Easy‑peelers (mandarins, clementines)**: **Nov–Feb** peak. - **Lemons & late varieties**: extending **into late spring**. - **2026 context** - With EU still Israel’s dominant market and some supply tightness in **small‑size citrus globally** (reports of tight smaller sizes and large‑fruit bias in 2026 citrus shipments), Israel’s **good coloration and higher Brix citrus** may command premiums in certain niches, but there is no evidence of a structural 2026 volume shock from Israel specifically.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/PrepperIntel/comments/1tlf2d1/produce_alliance_report_052226/?utm_source=openai)) **Overall 2026 fresh‑produce export picture** - **Portfolio**: Avocados and citrus remain the **volume pillars**, with **dates as a large value contributor** and **cherries a small but high‑value niche**.([israeleconomico.com](https://www.israeleconomico.com/economia-y-empresas/en-medio-de-la-guerra-y-las-tarifas-israel-exporta-miles-de-toneladas-de-aguacate/?utm_source=openai)) - **Seasonality vs EU demand**: - **Oct–Mar**: avocado + citrus heavy exports; some shipments may go by **fast reefer sea** for bulk, with **air used for early/late season, program ramp‑ups, and high‑margin SKUs**. - **Apr–Jun**: **late citrus**, cherries, and early stone fruit; **air freight importance rises** for cherries and premium fruit due to shorter shelf life and tight windows. - **Risk factors into 2026**: - **Weather** (heavy rain events seen in 2024/25), - **Logistics/security shocks** at Ben Gurion, and - **EU trade politics** (e.g., any future tariffs or sustainability‑linked market access rules) could all influence modal split and timing, but no specific new 2026 regulatory shock on these Israeli fruits is yet visible in EU or OECD‑FAO sources. **Sources (Commodity Trends)** Avocado production & export share([israeleconomico.com](https://www.israeleconomico.com/economia-y-empresas/en-medio-de-la-guerra-y-las-tarifas-israel-exporta-miles-de-toneladas-de-aguacate/?utm_source=openai)); Cherry production([helgilibrary.com](https://www.helgilibrary.com/indicators/cherry-production/israel/?utm_source=openai)); Citrus & general horticulture profile([en.wikipedia.org](https://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Israel?utm_source=openai)); Weather/harvest timing effects for avocados([agf.nl](https://www.agf.nl/article/9691918/zware-regenval-in-israel-vertraagt-avocado-oogst/?utm_source=openai)); Global avocado export outlook([oecd.org](https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/07/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2025-2034_3eb15914/601276cd-en.pdf?utm_source=openai)) --- === 3. DEMAND SIGNALS – AIR FREIGHT DEMAND ISRAEL → EU 2026 (PERISHABLES, CAPACITY, RATES, SEASONAL PEAKS) === **Underlying demand from Israel to EU** - Israel’s air‑freight exports are heavily weighted to **high‑value, time‑sensitive goods**: - **Fresh produce (avocados, cherries, high‑value citrus, herbs)** - **Pharmaceuticals and medical devices** - **High‑tech components** - Europe is the **primary destination for fresh produce exports**: - For avocados alone, **>90–95% of production exported to Europe**, with the Netherlands as a key consolidation hub.([israeleconomico.com](https://www.israeleconomico.com/economia-y-empresas/en-medio-de-la-guerra-y-las-tarifas-israel-exporta-miles-de-toneladas-de-aguacate/?utm_source=openai)) - Ben Gurion’s overall cargo growth – **+9.5% in 2025 vs 2024** according to one port/aviation bulletin – indicates that despite disruptions, there is **net positive growth in cargo activity**, much of it on **Europe‑linked lanes**.([en.port2port.co.il](https://en.port2port.co.il/article/Air-Transport/Airports/Ben-Gurion-Airport-9-5-Increase-in-Cargo-Activity-in-2025/?utm_source=openai)) **Capacity & bellyhold availability on Israel–EU corridors** - 2025/26 global context: belly capacity recovered strongly: - IATA notes **belly‑hold ACTKs up ~6.5% YoY** by late 2025 on major international routes, while **dedicated freighter growth lagged**.([iata.org](https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/Air-Cargo-Market-Analysis-October-2025/?utm_source=openai)) - Trade press summarises 2026 structure as: **≈⅔ cargo capacity in belly‑hold, ⅓ in freighters**.([aircargoweek.com](https://aircargoweek.com/air-cargo-enters-2026-balanced-but-brittle/?utm_source=openai)) - Applied to Israel–EU: - **El Al and European carriers (Turkish, Lufthansa, Air France/KLM, Wizz, Ryanair, etc.)** are the main suppliers of belly capacity ex‑Ben Gurion. In 2025 El Al alone carried **≈59,600 tons of belly cargo (58.3% market share)** on passenger flights to/from Israel, much of it **Europe‑linked**.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Gurion_Airport?utm_source=openai)) - Freighter activity (e.g., Silk Way, DHL, Compass) provides **additional uplift and peak‑season relief**, but belly remains structurally dominant for **short‑haul Israel–EU flows**.([iaa.gov.il](https://www.iaa.gov.il/media/21nahh3j/%D7%93%D7%95%D7%97-%D7%97%D7%95%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%99-%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%AA-%D7%A0%D7%95%D7%91%D7%9E%D7%91%D7%A8-2024-%D7%9E%D7%95%D7%A0%D7%92%D7%A9.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **2025–26 disruption and current state (demand vs capacity)** - **Security events** in 2025 (Houthi/Yemeni missile, and Iranian missile in March 2026) caused: - Flight cancellations and temporary **reductions in outbound passenger numbers per flight** (e.g., Europe‑bound capped around 120 pax per flight, US around 130), which **curtailed both passenger and belly‑cargo capacity** for several days to weeks.([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Gurion_Airport?utm_source=openai)) - **April 2025 air‑cargo throughput fell ~12% vs March** at Ben Gurion.([yemenextra.net](https://www.yemenextra.net/2025/05/27/yemeni-strikes-cripple-cargo-at-ben-gurion-airport-and-disrupt-occupiers-airspace/?utm_source=openai)) - By **May 2026**, forwarder anecdotal reporting from Asia into Israel indicates that **air‑freight capacity to Israel has been “fully restored” for about a week**, with major e‑commerce carriers back to normal schedules; this suggests that **post‑incident capacity shocks tend to be temporary**, with network normalization following within weeks.([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/dropship/comments/1tabl1x/for_anyone_still_routing_israel_via_seaair_relay/?utm_source=openai)) - Global 2026 view: IATA and trade analysts describe air cargo entering 2026 as: - **Demand stable at structurally higher than 2019 levels** - **Growth forecast ~2.4–2.6% in 2026** - **Less slack capacity**, making lanes like Israel–EU vulnerable to **rate spikes when disruptions occur** rather than chronic oversupply.([aircargoweek.com](https://aircargoweek.com/air-cargo-enters-2026-balanced-but-brittle/?utm_source=openai)) **Seasonal peaks – perishables from Israel to EU** Based on crop calendars and trade flows: - **Avocados**: - Main export season **Oct–Mar (sometimes into Apr)**. Peak **air‑freight demand to EU** is: - **Early season (Oct–Nov)**: when EU supply is tight and prices justify air. - **Late season gaps (Mar–Apr)**: when sea transit times risk quality or shelf‑life loss for late lots.([agf.nl](https://www.agf.nl/article/9691918/zware-regenval-in-israel-vertraagt-avocado-oogst/?utm_source=openai)) - **Citrus**: - **Nov–Mar** export window. Air is used mainly for: - **Premium segments** (e.g., specialty easy‑peelers, organic citrus). - **Last‑minute retailer promotions** or when **sea shipments are delayed**.([en.wikipedia.org](https://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Israel?utm_source=openai)) - **Cherries & early summer fruit**: - **May–June** for cherries, with high unit value and sensitivity driving a **disproportionate share by air** relative to tonnage. - This period overlaps with **rising passenger traffic into Israel (tourism)**, which **adds belly capacity**; however, any incident that restricts pax loads can simultaneously **tighten cherry export space and elevate rates**.([helgilibrary.com](https://www.helgilibrary.com/indicators/cherry-production/israel/?utm_source=openai)) **Rate environment (directional, not corridor‑specific spot quotes)** - Air‑cargo spot rates **declined year‑on‑year through much of 2025**, reflecting softer yields after the post‑COVID highs; this is described as a “soft market” though volumes remained solid.([aircargoweek.com](https://aircargoweek.com/air-cargo-enters-2026-balanced-but-brittle/?utm_source=openai)) - P2F conversion and fleet commentary for 2025–28 indicates: - **Increased availability of widebody charter capacity (767F, A330F)** is expected to **moderate charter rates** on key lanes as new P2F aircraft enter service, though feedstock constraints and selective conversions cap the downside.([safefly.aero](https://safefly.aero/cargo-charter-guide/?utm_source=openai)) - For **Israel–EU perishables** specifically: - Rates are likely to follow the broader pattern: **lower than 2021–22 peaks, but with spikes during:** - **Security events at Ben Gurion / in regional airspace** - **Peak export weeks for avocados (Q4–Q1) and cherries (May–June)** - **EU holidays / retail promotion periods (e.g., Christmas/New Year, Easter, early summer)** **Structural demand signals into 2026** - Global analysis of air cargo through 2026 suggests: - The industry is shifting from extraordinary growth to **steady, structurally higher demand**, driven particularly by **e‑commerce and high‑value perishables**, not cyclical industrial freight alone.([stattimes.com](https://www.stattimes.com/amp/air-cargo/global-air-freight-in-2026-slower-growth-stronger-structural-demand-1357860?utm_source=openai)) - For Israel–EU: - **High share of export‑oriented horticulture (avocados, citrus, herbs)** with **strict freshness and quality requirements** ensures **ongoing baseline air‑demand**, especially: - At **shoulder seasons** where Israel fills gaps in EU domestic supply; - For **premium and program‑driven SKUs** where **on‑time, high‑quality arrival trumps freight cost**.([israeleconomico.com](https://www.israeleconomico.com/economia-y-empresas/en-medio-de-la-guerra-y-las-tarifas-israel-exporta-miles-de-toneladas-de-aguacate/?utm_source=openai)) - With IAI’s P2F activities adding widebody freighters to global networks over 2025‑28, medium‑term **structural capacity to/from the broader Middle East–Europe corridor should expand**, supporting **competitive rate levels** and **higher service options** for Israeli exporters, even if many of the freighters are not Israel‑based.([air-journal.fr](https://www.air-journal.fr/2026-05-11-iai-acheve-la-structure-du-premier-a330%E2%80%91300-p2f-et-prepare-la-campagne-de-tests-en-vue-dune-certification-5275090.html?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Demand Signals)** Ben Gurion cargo growth & structure([en.port2port.co.il](https://en.port2port.co.il/article/Air-Transport/Airports/Ben-Gurion-Airport-9-5-Increase-in-Cargo-Activity-in-2025/?utm_source=openai)); Security disruptions & short‑term volume impact([yemenextra.net](https://www.yemenextra.net/2025/05/27/yemeni-strikes-cripple-cargo-at-ben-gurion-airport-and-disrupt-occupiers-airspace/?utm_source=openai)); Avocado/citrus export orientation and EU focus([israeleconomico.com](https://www.israeleconomico.com/economia-y-empresas/en-medio-de-la-guerra-y-las-tarifas-israel-exporta-miles-de-toneladas-de-aguacate/?utm_source=openai)); Seasonal patterns (tourist/produce season)([agf.nl](https://www.agf.nl/article/9691918/zware-regenval-in-israel-vertraagt-avocado-oogst/?utm_source=openai)); Global 2026 demand & rate trends([aircargoweek.com](https://aircargoweek.com/air-cargo-enters-2026-balanced-but-brittle/?utm_source=openai))