## Company Profile F.H. Bertling Ab — Swedish subsidiary of the Bertling Group (international logistics and project‑cargo operator). In Sweden the unit acts as a freight forwarder and project‑logistics provider offering multimodal transport (ocean/feeder, shortsea, road, rail), breakbulk/heavy‑lift and customs/port services for exporters and importers across industrial (machinery, steel), forest products (pulp/wood), and food/agri segments. Position: trusted regional forwarder with project expertise and port connections in Gothenburg/Helsingborg area; scale: mid‑market (regional subsidiary of a global group) — core clients are industrial exporters, forest‑sector shippers and Nordic food importers/retailers. ## Pain Points 1) Rising, non‑optional ETS carbon costs and FuelEU compliance are making ocean freight pricing less predictable and raising landed costs for long‑haul importers and exporters (machinery, forest products, food). Bertling’s clients will ask for sourcing and route alternatives (shortsea/rail, alternative origins) they cannot easily find in‑house. 2) Modal shift to rail/shortsea (e.g., Helsingborg–Gothenburg rail shuttle) and seasonal spikes in reefer/food imports require fast supplier discovery and matched logistics capacity; smaller importers lack sourcing channels and compliance‑ready documentation to convert opportunities. 3) Customs digitization and stricter pre‑lodgement/data quality mean Bertling must manage higher documentation and supplier‑data complexity for cross‑border shipments; clients need pre‑vetted suppliers who can provide correct HS and compliance info to avoid delays. ## Intel Summary === MULTI-DIMENSION RESEARCH === === 1. MARKET EVENTS – EUROPEAN FREIGHT FORWARDING TO/FROM SWEDEN (ROAD, SEA, RAIL/SHORTSEA) 2026 === **Road freight rate and capacity trends (2025–2026 outlook)** - European road freight contract rates in Q4 2025 were still rising while spot prices softened, indicating shippers locking in capacity amid weak spot demand. The Upply–Transport Intelligence–IRU benchmark shows contract rates edging up in late‑2025 even as spot indices flattened or declined. ([ti-insight.com](https://ti-insight.com/briefs/european-road-freight-2026-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) - The 2026 European road freight outlook expects **continued downward pressure on spot rates in many lanes in 2026** if new capacity (both new vehicles and older trucks kept in service) outweighs modest demand growth. ([ti-insight.com](https://ti-insight.com/briefs/european-road-freight-2026-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) - Average EU truck age has increased from **12.5 to 14 years** (approx. +10.7% year‑on‑year), implying carriers are extending fleet life instead of buying new vehicles as margins tighten. This tends to maintain or slightly increase available capacity in 2025–2026, including Nordics lanes. ([ti-insight.com](https://ti-insight.com/briefs/european-road-freight-2026-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) - EU new HGV registrations fell **6.2% in 2025**, while driver shortages reached **~444,000 unfilled positions** across the EU. This combination suggests short‑term capacity is more constrained by labour than equipment, particularly on long‑haul lanes from/to Sweden. ([ttm.nl](https://www.ttm.nl/nieuws/contracttarieven-wegtransport-stijgen-spotprijzen-blijven-achter-in-europa/174446/?utm_source=openai)) **Implications for Sweden‑related road lanes in 2026 (inferred)** - With Sweden classified alongside other high‑cost Northern markets, carriers have incentive to redeploy capacity from weaker Southern lanes to stable industrial flows (forest products, steel, machinery) to/from Sweden; this underpins contract rate resilience even if pan‑EU spot rates soften. (Inference based on EU‑wide data above plus Sweden’s heavy‑industry export mix.) ([ti-insight.com](https://ti-insight.com/briefs/european-road-freight-2026-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) **Sea freight and EU ETS cost‑push into 2026** - The EU ETS for maritime entered into force for shipping on **1 January 2024** with a phased‑in obligation of **40% of verified CO₂ emissions in 2024, 70% in 2025 and 100% in 2026** for voyages touching EU ports (including Swedish ports). ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai)) - The European Commission’s first report on the maritime ETS finds that in 2024, the ETS added **about 1–5% to freight rates on deep‑sea container services**; higher percentage increases are anticipated in 2025–2026 as coverage ramps up and more ship types enter scope. ([clecat.org](https://www.clecat.org/media/first-report-on-the-implementation-of-the-ets-extension-to-maritime-transport.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Industry modeling suggests that at full 100% coverage in 2026 and EUA prices around **€80/tonne**, ETS‑related carbon costs could account for **~6–7% of base freight rates** on long‑haul container trades, and potentially up to double‑digit percentages if base rates fall back but carbon prices remain high. ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai)) - For Sweden‑linked deep‑sea trades (e.g., Asia–Northern Europe into Gothenburg), forwarders should therefore assume **structural upward pressure on all‑in ocean rates in 2026**, even if underlying market freight indices (e.g., FBX Asia–N. Europe) stay flat; a growing share of surcharges will be labeled explicitly as “ETS” or “emissions” add‑ons. ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai)) **Shortsea/feeder and capacity shifts around Sweden** - The Port of Gothenburg’s **Railport Scandinavia** network handled **529,000 TEU by rail in 2025**, the highest annual rail volume on record for the port, underscoring a structural shift from road to rail for inland container moves. ([railmarket.com](https://railmarket.com/news/freight-rail/53890-apm-terminals-launches-helsingborg-gothenburg-container-rail-shuttle-with-five-hour-transit?region=ap&utm_source=openai)) - In April 2025, APM Terminals Gothenburg and partners launched a new **Helsingborg–Gothenburg container rail shuttle** with a **five‑hour transit time**. The shuttle is designed to give importers/exporters in southern Sweden a fixed‑schedule rail alternative to truck, effectively adding inland capacity and improving connectivity from Helsingborg to deep‑sea services at Gothenburg. ([railmarket.com](https://railmarket.com/news/freight-rail/53890-apm-terminals-launches-helsingborg-gothenburg-container-rail-shuttle-with-five-hour-transit?region=ap&utm_source=openai)) - Sweden’s national rail build‑out continues, including projects on the **North Bothnia Line** and shorter‑term capacity increases on existing corridors. Plans include additional broad‑gauge tracks and infrastructure adaptations, with sections scheduled to open in **2026** for freight and passenger services in northern Sweden, improving connectivity for bulk and forestry flows to both Baltic and Atlantic gateways. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Sweden?utm_source=openai)) **Directionally for 2026 Sweden‑related freight** - **Road**: Contract rates likely to remain firm or slightly up on Sweden‑EU lanes due to driver constraints and cost inflation (wages, fuel, CO₂ policies), while spot rates may be more volatile and lane‑specific; older fleets keep nominal capacity high. ([ti-insight.com](https://ti-insight.com/briefs/european-road-freight-2026-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) - **Sea (deep‑sea + feeder)**: ETS‑driven surcharges push up effective costs into/ out of Sweden from 2024–2026; shippers on high‑volume routes via Gothenburg, Helsingborg, and other Swedish ports can expect rising CO₂‑related line items even if base rates soften. ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai)) - **Rail/shortsea**: Continued pivot toward rail‑integrated logistics via Gothenburg (e.g., growing Railport TEU volumes, new shuttles) and Baltic shortsea routes as shippers seek lower‑emissions and more predictable alternatives to long‑haul trucking. ([railmarket.com](https://railmarket.com/news/freight-rail/53890-apm-terminals-launches-helsingborg-gothenburg-container-rail-shuttle-with-five-hour-transit?region=ap&utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Market Events)**: ([ti-insight.com](https://ti-insight.com/briefs/european-road-freight-2026-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) === 2. DEMAND SIGNALS – SWEDEN IMPORT/EXPORT FLOWS 2026, KEY SECTORS & SEASONALITY === **Overall trade structure and key export sectors** - Sweden is a very open economy: foreign trade in goods and services equals about **106% of GDP**. ([international.groupecreditagricole.com](https://international.groupecreditagricole.com/en/international-support/sweden/economic-overview?convertir_en_pdf=ok&utm_source=openai)) - According to recent data (Statistics Sweden summarized by Crédit Agricole, Jan–Nov 2024), Sweden’s **exports by product group** were: - **Machinery & transport equipment: 44.6%** of merchandise exports, with **industrial machinery 14.4%** and **road vehicles 14.3%** of total exports. - **Chemicals & rubber products: 15.3%**. - **Minerals (incl. ores, metals, fuels): 10.3%**. - **Wood and paper products: 9.1%**. ([international.groupecreditagricole.com](https://international.groupecreditagricole.com/en/international-support/sweden/economic-overview?convertir_en_pdf=ok&utm_source=openai)) - Import structure is different: - **Machinery & transport equipment: 43.8% of imports** (especially electronics/telecom at 16.1%). - **Chemicals & rubber: 13.3%**. - **Food, beverages & tobacco: 11.4%**. - **Mineral fuels: 10.3%**. ([international.groupecreditagricole.com](https://international.groupecreditagricole.com/en/international-support/sweden/economic-overview?convertir_en_pdf=ok&utm_source=openai)) - Business Sweden’s export monitoring identifies 13–14 major product groups that together account for **~85% of Swedish goods exports**, including **wood products, pulp & paper, steel, petroleum products, machinery, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and food & beverages.** ([business-sweden.com](https://www.business-sweden.com/4adde3/contentassets/f070bc7e356e4fbb9ea02d34567f6a0b/global-export-2024---sweden-a-winner-in-declining-world-trade.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Forest products exports (pulp, paper, sawn wood)** - Sweden’s forest sector (including forestry, wood products, pulp and paper) represents **9–11% of Sweden’s industrial production** and is a core export engine. ([tullify.se](https://tullify.se/en/the-customs-guide/swedens-forest-exports/?utm_source=openai)) - In **2024**, Sweden imported about **9.2 million m³ of roundwood**, a **26% increase** vs. 2023, reflecting tight domestic raw‑material balances and strong downstream demand (sawn timber, pulp, bioenergy). ([skogsstyrelsen.se](https://www.skogsstyrelsen.se/en/statistics/other-statistics/foreign-trade-with-forest-and-forest-industry-products/?utm_source=openai)) - Forest products exports are concentrated to **EU neighbors and Asia**, with seasonal peaks typically aligned with construction cycles (spring/summer building season in Europe) and paper demand (Q4 packaging for e‑commerce and consumer goods). (Seasonality inferred from sector reports and standard demand patterns.) ([tullify.se](https://tullify.se/en/the-customs-guide/swedens-forest-exports/?utm_source=openai)) **Steel exports** - Sweden’s exports of finished steel products (including ingots and semis) reached **SEK 60.9 billion in 2024**, versus imports of **SEK 40.7 billion**, indicating a net export position and strong outbound flow of steel from Swedish mills. ([jernkontoret.se](https://www.jernkontoret.se/en/the-steel-industry/industry-facts-and-statistics/foreign-trade/?utm_source=openai)) - Key markets are within the EU, especially Germany and the Nordic region, supporting consistent truck/rail/shortsea flows of coils, plates, and specialty steels. (Destinations from sector overview.) ([jernkontoret.se](https://www.jernkontoret.se/en/the-steel-industry/industry-facts-and-statistics/foreign-trade/?utm_source=openai)) **Machinery & vehicles** - Machinery and transport equipment together account for **nearly half of Sweden’s goods exports (44.6%)**, with road vehicles alone at **14.3%** of total exports in Jan–Nov 2024; these are among the most logistics‑intensive segments (high value, tight lead times, complex supply chains). ([international.groupecreditagricole.com](https://international.groupecreditagricole.com/en/international-support/sweden/economic-overview?convertir_en_pdf=ok&utm_source=openai)) - Demand is diversified across EU (Germany, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Poland, UK) and the US; Germany accounts for **10% of Swedish exports**, Norway 9.8%, US 8.2% (2025 data). ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Sweden?utm_source=openai)) **Food & agricultural trade** - Sweden’s exports of agricultural products and food reached **SEK 83 billion in 2024**, up just over **2% year‑on‑year**. ([mejeriteknisktforum.org](https://mejeriteknisktforum.org/2025/04/new-figures-on-swedens-trade-in-agricultural-products/?utm_source=openai)) - Exports are heavily regional: **Norway, Denmark and Finland together account for about 46% of the total value of Swedish food and agricultural exports**. ([mejeriteknisktforum.org](https://mejeriteknisktforum.org/2025/04/new-figures-on-swedens-trade-in-agricultural-products/?utm_source=openai)) - Sweden remains a net importer of many foods. In 2024, **food, beverages and tobacco were 11.4% of total imports**, with opportunities particularly in specialty foods, alcoholic beverages, tree nuts, and organics, as highlighted by the U.S. Department of Commerce. ([trade.gov](https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/sweden-agriculture?utm_source=openai)) - US Commercial Service data for 2024 show examples of individual HS categories with notable import volumes, such as **sweet potatoes (HS 071420) with total Swedish imports of 7,004 tonnes, of which 456 tonnes (5%) from the U.S.** (illustrative of niche food import segments). ([trade.gov](https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/sweden-agriculture?utm_source=openai)) **Seasonal peaks and 2026 sourcing shifts (directional)** - **Forest/wood products**: Strongest export shipping season typically **April–September** (construction season) with Q4 peaks for packaging grades; higher demand for outbound road/rail/shortsea capacity from central and northern Sweden to European customers. (Pattern inferred + sector context.) ([tullify.se](https://tullify.se/en/the-customs-guide/swedens-forest-exports/?utm_source=openai)) - **Steel**: Demand tracks EU industrial production; Business Sweden notes that in 2024 some heavy industrial product groups (including wood products and steel‑related segments) saw pressure while **machinery exports “went against the tide” with significant growth**—this implies a relative shift in export mix toward higher‑value machinery in 2024–2025, likely continuing into 2026 if global investment in green/automation tech remains robust. ([business-sweden.com](https://www.business-sweden.com/4aed05/contentassets/da54dbef58a943b5815207b15c8ee122/global-export-of-goods-2025---global-headwinds-slow-swedish-goods-exports-en-publ.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - **Food & agri**: Seasonality follows European harvest patterns (e.g., increased imports of off‑season fresh produce, and exports of processed dairy, beverages). Nordic cross‑border food trade is relatively stable year‑round but typically spikes before major holidays (Easter, Midsummer, Christmas), leading to short‑term surges in Nordic road and shortsea capacity needs. (Inferred from regional food trade behavior plus 2024 statistics). ([mejeriteknisktforum.org](https://mejeriteknisktforum.org/2025/04/new-figures-on-swedens-trade-in-agricultural-products/?utm_source=openai)) **2026 implications for forwarders/shippers** - Heavy exposure of Sweden’s export basket to **industrial sectors (machinery, vehicles, forest, steel)** implies continued **base-load export demand in 2026**, with cyclical fluctuations tied to EU manufacturing and construction. ([business-sweden.com](https://www.business-sweden.com/4adde3/contentassets/f070bc7e356e4fbb9ea02d34567f6a0b/global-export-2024---sweden-a-winner-in-declining-world-trade.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - Food & agri trade offers more **seasonal and regional** flows (Nordic and EU), which can be important for balancing northbound/southbound capacity, especially for reefer and groupage operations. ([mejeriteknisktforum.org](https://mejeriteknisktforum.org/2025/04/new-figures-on-swedens-trade-in-agricultural-products/?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Demand Signals)**: ([tullify.se](https://tullify.se/en/the-customs-guide/swedens-forest-exports/?utm_source=openai)) === 3. TIMING SIGNALS – REGULATORY CHANGES AFFECTING FREIGHT & CUSTOMS (SWEDEN/EU) 2024–2026 === **EU ETS for maritime shipping (timing & impact)** - **Scope & phase‑in**: From **1 January 2024**, the EU ETS covers CO₂ emissions from large ships (≥5,000 GT) on: - All voyages between EU/EEA ports (100% of emissions). - 50% of emissions from voyages between an EU/EEA port and a non‑EU port. - Emissions at berth in EU ports. - Coverage ramp‑up: **40% of reported emissions in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 100% from 2026 onward** for in‑scope ships. ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai)) - **Commission 2025 implementation report** indicates 2024 ETS costs resulted in **~1–5% increases in deep‑sea container freight rates** tied to ETS pass‑through; stronger increases are expected in **2025–2026** as the phase‑in rises and possibly more ship types are added. ([clecat.org](https://www.clecat.org/media/first-report-on-the-implementation-of-the-ets-extension-to-maritime-transport.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - For shippers using Swedish ports (e.g., Gothenburg, Helsingborg, Stockholm), this means that by **January 2026**: - ETS is at full 100% coverage for CO₂ for in‑scope vessels. - Carriers are standardizing ETS surcharges, often separated from base ocean freight in quotations. - Shippers with longer‑haul trades to/from Sweden (e.g., Asia, North America) will feel higher ETS cost intensity than those on shortsea Baltic or North Sea routes, though all will face some surcharge. ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai)) **Broader EU Green Deal / CO₂ policies affecting logistics timing** - **FuelEU Maritime** comes into force from **2025**, gradually tightening greenhouse‑gas intensity requirements for marine fuels used in EU ports. This interacts with ETS from **2025–2026** onward and is expected to further incentivize slower steaming, fuel switches, and potentially route restructuring to optimize emissions compliance. (Timing from EU Green Deal maritime package.) ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai)) - The combined effect of **EU ETS (100% by 2026)**, **FuelEU Maritime**, and tightening IMO **Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII)** rules is widely expected to: - Increase the cost of older, less efficient tonnage. - Support higher freight rates on high‑distance trades. - Encourage modal shifts where feasible (e.g., shortsea + rail vs long truck legs) in Northern Europe, including Sweden. ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai)) **Customs & border digitization (EU and Sweden)** - The EU is in the midst of a multi‑year **EU Customs Data Hub / EU Customs Reform** program, aiming by **2030** to create a fully digital, data‑driven customs environment, with intermediate milestones in **2025–2028** for new electronic systems and mandatory data formats for certain traders and product categories. (EU customs reform communications.) ([documents1.worldbank.org](https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099223405022563634/pdf/IDU-df253cea-7805-45a7-a5a5-966fbbe28072.pdf?utm_source=openai)) - For Sweden (as an EU Member State using common customs processes), practical timing signals for forwarders between **2024–2026** include: - Progressive rollout of upgraded electronic customs declaration systems and tighter data validation, with emphasis on HS code accuracy and safety/security pre‑arrival data. - Increasing use of risk‑based controls relying on digital data rather than physical inspections, which, once fully implemented, can lower clearance times but may temporarily raise complexity during transition. (Timing inferred from EU‑wide customs IT implementation roadmap.) ([documents1.worldbank.org](https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099223405022563634/pdf/IDU-df253cea-7805-45a7-a5a5-966fbbe28072.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Other EU Green Deal regulations relevant to freight/logistics** - Apart from maritime, **road freight** is affected via: - Stricter CO₂ performance standards for new heavy‑duty vehicles coming into effect over **2025–2030**, pushing OEMs and fleets toward zero‑emission trucks; timing means that by **2026**, low‑ and zero‑emission trucks will still be a minority of the fleet but will start to appear on high‑profile corridors, potentially with preferential tolls or incentives. ([ti-insight.com](https://ti-insight.com/briefs/european-road-freight-2026-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) - Differentiated fuel taxation and biofuel incentives; Sweden is among the countries that **exempt certain biofuels from excise duties or carbon taxes**, which affects the relative cost of low‑carbon road transport options for domestic and cross‑border trucking. ([ti-insight.com](https://ti-insight.com/briefs/european-road-freight-2026-outlook/?utm_source=openai)) **What this means for shippers into/out of Sweden in 2026** - **2024–2025**: Initial ETS surcharges appear on ocean freight invoices and gradually increase, but overall impact remains a few percentage points of freight. Customs systems modernization continues, but with mixed implementation, so shippers may face varying digital requirements by lane. ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai)) - **From January 2026** onward: - ETS coverage at 100% for CO₂ emissions makes emissions costs a **material, non‑reversible component** of ocean freight pricing into/out of Sweden. Budgeting for 2026+ contracts should explicitly model ETS and, where relevant, FuelEU Maritime compliance costs. ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai)) - Shippers with Sweden‑EU shortsea and feeder flows will still face ETS costs, but per‑unit exposure is lower than for deep‑sea; this encourages **using Gothenburg and Baltic gateways plus rail/road to serve inland Scandinavia and Northern Europe**, instead of longer, more emissions‑intensive routings. ([railmarket.com](https://railmarket.com/news/freight-rail/53890-apm-terminals-launches-helsingborg-gothenburg-container-rail-shuttle-with-five-hour-transit?region=ap&utm_source=openai)) - Continued customs digitization means that **data quality and pre‑lodgment capabilities become a competitive differentiator** for forwarders and shippers in Sweden; poor data can trigger delays or inspections, while high‑quality digital submissions should clear more quickly by 2026. ([documents1.worldbank.org](https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099223405022563634/pdf/IDU-df253cea-7805-45a7-a5a5-966fbbe28072.pdf?utm_source=openai)) **Sources (Timing Signals)**: ([shipfinex.com](https://www.shipfinex.com/blog/eu-ets-for-shipping?utm_source=openai))